Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,630 Canadians by Smart IVR on October 6-7, 2015.

A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, age
and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

DEAD HEAT AS LIBERALS SURGE

October 9, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives and Liberals
in a close race for first as the Liberals surge in Ontario. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of
1.31%, 19 times out of 20.
Among Leaning & Decided Voters the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 1% - a statistical tie, 36% to 35% with
the NDP well back at 20%.
The Liberals have surged in Ontario while the NDP have been slipping - noticeably so in Quebec where we now
have them in third, behind both the Liberals and Conservatives though this is within the margin of error, said
Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
The election really has come down to a two horse race in the final stretch. If those Quebec numbers hold the
NDP would lose seats to all three parties. In the Greater Montreal area the Liberals would be the main
beneficiary while the Conservatives can look to gains in and around Quebec City. For the Bloc, there are pickup
opportunities in rural Quebec and Gilles Duceppe faces a much easier path now to reclaim his seat.
In Ontario the Liberals now lead the Conservatives 44% to 37%, a 7 point lead with the NDP at 14%. For the
Conservatives these have to be worrying numbers. Liberal support is high enough to knock out incumbents in
the 905, the Tories need the NDP to rebound so they can pull some of these seats out on vote splits.
In Battleground BC we still see a three way race but now with the Conservatives in the lead. The NDP are not
far behind at 29% and the Liberals are one point back at 28% with the Green Party steady at 10%. For the Greens
there are still pickup opportunities and if the NDP number continues to dip in the province it may make it easier
for Elizabeth May to add to her caucus. There may be some surprises at the end of the night.
In Manitoba, its still a two way race between the Liberals and Conservatives. In Saskatchewan however the
NDP still have the numbers to gain new seats if they do not begin to bleed to the Liberals. Our recent
Saskatchewan poll found interesting numbers for Regina and Saskatoon which stand ready to elect
non-Conservative MPs for the first time in a long while thanks to redistribution.
When asked what topical issue making headlines has influenced them the most, Canadians said it was the
Economy (35%). Surprisingly, 9% of Canadians cited the Trial of Mike Duffy as having made an impact on their
decision despite it being one of the very first stories of the campaign. Not many (5%) cited the discussion of the
Niqab but that is not to say it has not had an impact. In Quebec, 9% cited it as the most important story. Just
because it isnt the most important story doesnt mean its not important. Certainly the Bloc Quebecois and
Conservative party have calculated this is an issue that plays well for them.
As the campaign finally winds down to an end we still dont know who will win come Election night. What we
do know is these last few days will be exciting - as Canadians sit down to Thanksgiving dinner they will have
important choices to make, finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having
predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and
a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of
Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

36%

20%

35%

4%

5%

CONSERVATIVE
36% -1%
NDP
20% -4%
LIBERAL
35% +6%
BLOC QUBECOIS 4% -%
GREEN PARTY
5% -2%

CPC

NDP

LPC

BQ

GPC

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

BC
33%
29%
28%
x
10%

AB
56%
13%
27%
x
4%

SK
47%
29%
20%
x
4%

MB
47%
19%
31%
x
3%

ON
37%
14%
44%
x
5%

QC Atlantic
27%
25%
25%
28%
27%
42%
17%
x
4%
6%

A4

The Question Was:

If the Federal Election were today,
which party would you support?

CONSERVATIVE (CPC)
NDP
LIBERAL (LPC)
BLOC QUBECOIS (BQ)
GREEN PARTY (GPC)
UNDECIDED (UD)

Party and Leader Name were given

ie. The Conservative Party led by
Stephen Harper

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED

18-34
25%
20%
40%
5%
6%
5%
449
BC
29%
25%
24%
x
9%
13%
787

35-49
37%
19%
24%
3%
5%
12%
1060

AB
51%
11%
25%
x
4%
9%
908

50-64 65+
33%
39%
15%
17%
31%
28%
4%
3%
4%
3%
13%
10%
1914 2207

SK
37%
23%
17%
x
4%
19%
577

Certain
34%
18%
31%
3%
5%
9%

MB
40%
14%
27%
x
2%
17%
618
Likely
33%
12%
33%
4%
5%
13%

33%
18%
31%
3%
5%
10%

+1%
-2%
+7%
-1%
-5%

Male Female
34%
32%
16%
19%
34%
28%
4%
3%
4%
5%
8%
12%
2546 3084

ON
35%
13%
40%
x
5%
8%
1280

QC Atlantic
25% 22%
23% 22%
25% 36%
x
15%
5%
3%
16%
9%
1040 420

Might
27%
17%
33%
1%
5%
17%

Unlikely
23%
21%
21%
7%
5%
22%

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

10%

5%

3%

31%

18%

33%

A5

A6

British Columbia

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Regional Margins of Error:

British Columbia +/- 3.49%
Alberta +/- 3.25%
Saskatchewan: +/- 4.08%
Manitoba: +/- 3.94%

Manitoba

A7

Ontario

Quebec

Regional Margins of Error:

Ontario +/- 2.74%
Quebec +/- 3.04%
Atlantic +/- 4.78%

Atlantic

A8

-1%
-3%
+4%
-2%

5%

37%
20%
35%
4%
5%

4%

35%

20%

37%

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

BC
33%
29%
27%
x
10%

AB
56%
12%
28%
x
4%

SK
46%
29%
21%
x
4%

MB
49%
17%
33%
x
2%

ON
38%
14%
43%
x
5%

QC Atlantic
28%
26%
25%
26%
27%
42%
17%
x
4%
6%

A9

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

11%

11%

57%

16%

3%

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

2%

A10

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil
change you mind before the next election?

2%
14%

CONSERVATIVE
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

84%
14%
2%

NDP
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

63%
29%
7%

LIBERAL
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

68%
23%
8%

84%

7%

29%

63%

8%

23%

68%

A11

19%

10%

4%

23%

32%

14%

And who would be your second choice?

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

A12

During the campaign a number of stories have made headlines at different stages,
which issue has most affected the way you will vote?
9%
20%

35%
20%

7%

Duffy

5%

5%

Economy

TPP

Niqab

Something Else

TRIAL OF MIKE DUFFY

THE ECONOMY
TPP
NIQAB
REFUGEE CRISIS
SOMETHING ELSE
NOT SURE

Not Sure
18-34
10%
33%
5%
4%
7%
22%
19%

TRIAL OF MIKE DUFFY

THE ECONOMY
TPP
NIQAB
REFUGEE CRISIS
SOMETHING ELSE
NOT SURE
BC
8%
33%
7%
4%
6%
22%
19%

Refugees

AB
8%
43%
5%
4%
7%
14%
19%

35-49
8%
36%
6%
5%
6%
19%
20%
SK
8%
37%
5%
4%
6%
19%
20%

50-64
9%
35%
4%
5%
7%
19%
20%
MB
6%
36%
5%
5%
9%
18%
21%

65+
8%
37%
5%
5%
7%
18%
21%
ON
10%
35%
5%
5%
7%
18%
20%

Male Female
9%
9%
37% 33%
5%
5%
4%
5%
7%
6%
17%
22%
20% 20%
QC Atlantic
9%
11%
32%
29%
4%
5%
9%
4%
7%
7%
21%
20%
18%
24%

A13

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?

Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind
before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Dont Know Only]
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
During the campaign a number of stories have made headlines at different stages,
which issue has most affected the way you will vote?
The Trial of Mike Duffy
The Economy
The Trans Pacific Partnership, also known as the TPP
The Discussion of the Niqab
The Refugee Crisis
Something Else
Not sure

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

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