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2014 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON 2014)

Chengdu, 20-22 Oct. 2014

A New Life Cycle Cost Model of Power


Transformer and Its Comprehensive Sensitivity
Analysis
QIAO Guo-hua1, REN Zheng2, SU Lei1, ZHANG Bo1, XING Jian-gang1, ZHAN Xiang-ling2

AbstractThe establishment of power transformer life cycle


cost model is of great significance for improving the efficiency of
grid assets management. Considering the dynamic change of
money with time, this paper integrates environmental cost and
preventive test cost into the model, and completes other aspects to
build a more comprehensive transformer life cycle cost model. In
addition, considering sensitivity coefficient and the parameters
value, the comprehensive sensitivity analysis method is presented.
Combined with a practical example, the paper makes a ratio
analysis of the transformer life cycle cost and verifies the scientific
rationality and superiority of the comprehensive sensitivity
analysis method by making a comparison of traditional sensitivity
analysis method and the comprehensive sensitivity analysis
method. The method has certain guiding significance in practical
engineering of transformer cost control.
Index Termspower transformer; life cycle
environmental cost; comprehensive sensitivity analysis

cost;

I. INTRODUCTION
ITH the rapid development of power grid, the traditional
way of equipment management only pays attention to
immediate interests, which already cannot adapt to the
development of the times. Life cycle cost management regards
grid equipment life cycle activity as management object,
avoiding the short-term behavior, so it has broad application
prospects[1-3].
The assets management in whole life cycle of transformer
demands abundant data, and the associated links are numerous,
so it needs to establish mathematics model of the transformer
life cycle cost, and then build the transformer cost management
system. Therefore, how to establish a scientific, reasonable and
comprehensive life cycle model of transformer is an important
research topic in recent years.

Manuscript received July 24, 2014. This work was supported by National
Natural Science Foundation of China (51307060); Colleges and Universities in
Hebei Province Science and Technology Research Project(Z2013086);
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2014MS84); State
Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy
Source(LAPS14011); State Grid Corporation Project(kj2013-065).
QIAO Guo-hua, SU Lei, ZHANG Bo and XING Jian-gang are with State
Grid Hebei Electric Power Company, Shijiazhuang, 050000, P.R.China.
REN Zheng and ZHAN Xiang-ling are with the School of Electrical and
Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding,
071003, P.R. China(e-mail: renzheng6536@126.com ).

POWERCON 2014

Paper No CP1692

About transformer life cycle cost (LCC) modeling research,


scholars have made some research results at home and abroad.
Literature [4] makes cost decomposition in the whole
substation equipment life cycle and establishes substation
equipment life cycle cost model. LCC model is divided into
five parts: investment cost, operation cost, maintenance cost,
failure cost and disposal cost in[5]. Literature [6,7] make life
cycle cost analysis of equipment, which use different methods
of simulation modeling. Literature [8] proposes a variety of
maintenance strategies, and obtains its effect on life cycle cost.
To sum up, scholars at home and abroad have made some
research on transformer life cycle cost modeling. Some
scholars think the life cycle of power transformer can be
divided into three sections: installation, operation and scrap;
Others think it should be divided into five sections: the initial
investment cost, operation cost, maintenance cost, failure cost
and disposal cost. However, the existing models are not very
perfect, and there are still some defects, such as not considering
the dynamic change of money with time, the divisions of life
cycle cost being not comprehensive enough, the mathematical
model of fault outage loss being not comprehensive enough,
not reflecting the effect of the environment problems on the
total cost in the modeling, that is lacking the mathematical
model of environmental cost, etc.
On the basis of the above research results, considering the
dynamic change of money with time, this paper completes
other aspects to build a new transformer life cycle cost model
which is more comprehensive. And the new environmental cost
model makes the electric power enterprise attach great
importance to environmental protection. Because of the
shortcoming of the traditional method of sensitivity analysis, a
comprehensive sensitivity analysis method is proposed.
Combined with the actual example, we analysis life cycle cost
of transformer and get factors and focus which influence the
transformer LCC cost; Compared with the traditional
sensitivity analysis method, we verify the advantages of the
comprehensive sensitivity analysis method. In this paper, we
built a more perfect LCC model and proposed a more scientific
sensitivity analysis method which is of great significance for
transformer cost management in practical engineering.

II. POWER TRANSFORMER LCC MODELING


Transformer life cycle cost management is based on

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reliability and life cycle management, which divides the LCC


into procurement, installation, operation, maintenance and
scrap. On the basis of ensuring the reliability, the goal of this
method is to make equipment LCC cost minimum. The core
content are life cycle cost modeling and making the quantitative
calculation for the consumption in the life cycle of the
transformer, so as to provide guidance for engineering decision.
From the perspective of the electric power enterprise, the
whole life cycle of transformer can be divided into three parts:
installation, operation and scrap. From the perspective of
academic research, the life cycle of transformer can be divided
into five parts: initial investment cost, operation cost and
maintenance cost, failure cost and disposal cost. This paper
completes other aspects to build a new transformer life cycle
cost model which is more comprehensive. And the new
environmental cost model makes the electric power enterprise
attach great importance to environmental protection. Therefore,
the transformer life cycle cost can be divided into seven parts:
investment cost, operation cost, environmental cost, preventive
test cost, maintenance cost, failure cost and disposal cost.
LCC model equation is as follows,
(1)
Among them,
is the investment cost;
is the operation
cost;
is the environmental cost;
is the preventive test
cost;
is the maintenance cost.
is the disposal cost.

is the failure cost;

The transformer initial investment cost is the cost of the


equipment before operation, this paper makes the LCC cost
more comprehensive and intensification, the initial cost is
divided into planning design, procurement, construction,
installation, debugging and other expenses. Planning design
cost belongs to the transformer cost of planning and feasibility
study stage; Procurement and construction cost include
purchasing cost, construction cost, spare parts, suppliers and
transportation cost, etc.
(2)
h + cg
Among them,
cost ,

is planning design cost,

is construction cost,

cg

Transformer loss includes both no-load loss and load loss. So


the mathematical model of transformer energy costs can be
described as follows:
[

Among them,
no-load loss;
factor;

Among them,

wh

is the artificial maintenance cost,

POWERCON 2014

Paper No CP1692

is

represents load loss;

1
1

represents electrovalence,

(4)

represents

represents availability

represents annual service hours;

()
1

Among them,

represents load

1
1

(5)

( ) represents the operation maintenance cost

of the equipment in the t year;


rate. represents inflation rate

represents social discount

With the rapid development of human society economy, the


increasing environmental problems cannot be ignored. Global
warming is a serious threat to the sustainable development of
human society, and the gases which produce greenhouse are
mainly CO2, CH4, NOX, etc[9]. At the same time,
electromagnetic radiation and noise pollution of power
transformer also bring some harm to surroundings. This paper
divides the environmental cost into the greenhouse gases
penalty cost, the electromagnetic radiation penalty cost and the
noise pollution penalty cost.
(1) Punishment cost of greenhouse gases
We associate this cost with greenhouse gases and due to the
wastage of the transformer. For the wastage which beyond the
standard value is a direct factor that produces greenhouse gases
punishment cost. Considering the social discount rate and the
rate of inflation, the greenhouse gases punishment cost model is
built as follows:

1
1

0)

(6)

(7)

Among them,

energy consumption cost.


(1) Energy consumption cost

0.85

rate.
(2) Artificial maintenance cost
Artificial maintenance cost can be described as follows:

The operation cost of transformer is the consumptive cost to


maintain the normal operation of the transformer within the life
cycle, including the artificial maintenance cost and energy
consumption. For the energy cost of transformer, this paper
considers the rate of inflation and social discount rate to refine
the model on the basis of reference [8]. For the artificial
maintenance cost, we have considered CPI rise, artificial cost,
maintenance cost, insurance rise and so on to complete the
model. Operation cost model is as follows:
(3)

(0.15

is procurement

is other cost..

Chengdu, 20-22 Oct. 2014

represents the annual actual cost;

represents the annual normal cost;


represents emission
charge unit consumption. represents the rate of inflation;
represents the social discount rate.
(2)Punishment cost of electromagnetic radiation
Transformer electromagnetic radiation is mainly refers to the
power frequency electric field, including power frequency
magnetic field and radio interference, it can produce a certain
harm to the surrounding environment [10].
Our country has no radio interference limits standard about
transformer currently, this paper references radio interference
limits standard of transmission lines. According to the national
standard, the distance between phase conductors projection is
20 m (20m for substation should be outside the fence the
nearest charged frame projection), the inference of test

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frequency which is 0.5 MHz radio is less than 55 db in sunny


conditions[11-15].
This paper converts transformer electromagnetic radiation
superscalar into electromagnetic radiation punishment cost. It
can be calculated by the next formula:
3

(
1

Among them,

1
1

(8)

represents the actual radiation;

Preventive test cost refers to regular preventive test cost


which prevents equipment failure, consulting operation manual
maintenance cost, the model is shown as follows:

) represents the preventive test year

Among them,
cycle.

1760

(9)

Above 16

11200

the cost of labor, materials, machinery, etc., but overhaul


involves parts replacement, minor repair doesnt consider that.
In this paper, we consider the transformer failure rate, the
probability of failure after overhaul, the probability of minor
repair after failure and the time effect of funds. The
maintenance cost of mathematic model is shown as follows:
()

represents standard radiation limit;


represents the radiation
exceeding penalty cost;
(3) Punishment cost of noise pollution
Noise pollution mainly includes construction noise and
electromagnetic noise of the run-time. In our country noise
standards is as table 1. Therefore, we need to choose suitable
noise limit standard according to the location of transformer.
The common valuation methods of noise pollution include
protection fees, willingness to pay and cost of direct or indirect
damage. The standard is shown in table 2.

1
1

Chengdu, 20-22 Oct. 2014

() ()

( )(1

the probability of overhaul;


the overhaul cost;

( ) represents the preventive

( ) represents the minor repair cost.


1

()

(1

(11)

Among them,
represents overhaul period,
overhaul ratio increase rate.

category

day

night

range of application

50

40

rehabilitation nursing homes and other


special areas

55

45

60

50

65

55

4a

70

55

4b

70

60

represents

Transformer fault may cause the power outrage, which leads


to the regional power supply revenue loss, repairing operations
and influencing the user's normal life and production. This
paper is based on years of actual power outage time to measure
the fault outage punishment cost, building a more
comprehensive fault outage loss cost, mainly including three
parts: failure to supply loss, repair fault cost and penalty cost.
(

TABLE I The limit standard of environmental noise

(10)

( ) represents the failure rate; ( ) represents

Among them,

()

Maintenance cost refers to the transformer maintenance costs


caused by the failure, including the overhaul cost and minor
repair cost. Overhaul cost and minor repair cost both include

1
1

( ))

Among them,

represents electrovalence;

1
1

(12)
represents the

annual interruption of power; represents the annual actual


power outage time; ( ) represents failure rate;
represents
average annual repair costs;
represents average annual
repair time; 0 represents the annual plan outage time;
represents the power outage time compensation fee.
Disposal cost includes scrap cost and salvage value. Based
on literature [4], considering the time effect of money, we build
the model as follows:

residential building, medical treatment


and public health, cultural education
and other areas
financial business, country fair trade
area, etc
industrial production, warehousing
logistics area, etc

Among them,

traffic mainline within a certain


distance, including 4 a, 4 b two types

represents the value loss expense;


of the recycling of residual value.

1
1

(13)

represents the clearing expense;


represents the expense

TABLE II Discharge fees standard of excessive noise


Excessive
decibels
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Charge standard
(yuan/month)
350
440
550
700
880
1100
1400

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Excessive
decibels
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Charge standard
(yuan/month)
2200
2800
3520
4400
5600
7040
8800

Paper No CP1692

III. LCC SENSITIVE FACTOR ANALYSIS


To analyze the impact factors of transformer LCC cost, we
can identify factors which affect transformer LCC and the
degree of the factors influence on LCC. Therefore transformer
LCC sensitivity analysis is an indispensable important segment.
Identifying sensitivity factors and controlling the factors that
influence the cost can effectively reduce the total life cycle cost

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of transformer and obtain good economic benefits.


The basic structural formula of transformer LCC model is as
follows:
( 1, 2 , , ) 1 1
(14)
2 2
Among them,

1,

2,

are the factors that influence the

LCC, such as electricity, load rate, the rate of inflation, etc.


Therefore, the greater the absolute value of partial
derivatives of
, the higher LCC sensitivity of
, the
conventional sensitivity function is defined as:

( 1,

1, 2,

, )

(15)

We can know from the mathematical meaning of derivative, if


0 , then it means that the increase of
leads to LCC

0 , then it means that the increase of


LCC decrease; If
0 , it means that the change of
increase; if

lead to
has no

effect on LCC.
In the traditional transformer LCC sensitivity analysis, it
only applies partial derivative to measure the importance of
parameters, but it's not scientific. Because traditional sensitivity
analysis method can only get the LCC sensitivity for a
parameter change, but a single sensitivity cant prove the
importance of the parameters for the LCC.
For example, the partial derivative of one parameter is very
big, but it accounts for the proportion is very small in LCC,
even can be ignored in the initial LCC analysis. Although this
parameter fluctuation will cause the great change of LCC, but it
is not important in the LCC estimate and does not need to pay
attention to. This suggests that the high sensitivity parameters
having great influence on LCC are not necessarily, so not all the
high sensitivity parameters are worth being paid attention to.
This paper has improved the traditional sensitivity analysis
method and obtained the comprehensive sensitivity analysis
method. In this way, we both consider the sensitivity coefficient
and the share of parameter value in LCC. The comprehensive
sensitivity analysis steps are shown as follows:
1) Using the minimum and maximum of 1 , 2 , , , we can
calculate the average

min

max

2) Use 1 , 2 ,
of each parameter.
(

) 2(

1, 2,

, )

to account the sensitivity function

(16)

1, 2,

, )

(17)

3) Calculate the minimum and maximum of factors which


impact on LCC. Defined as:
1,2, , )
(18)
min
min (
max

max

1, 2,

, )

(19)

Then we can get the following conclusion:


(1)
max +
min reflects the share of parameter

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LCC. If the value is big, parameter has a great influence on


LCC, then this parameter should be focused on during the LCC
calculation.
(2)
max
min reflects the actual sensitivity of LCC for
parameter

. If the value is big, it means that this parameter

fluctuation will cause the great change of LCC. We should


carefully check the parameter during LCC decision-making.
(3) If the values of
max +
min and
max
min
both are very big, it means the parameter is of great importance
and need to be paid attention to. On the contrary, this parameter
is not very important.
(4) If the value of
max +
min is big and the value of
max
min is small, we can see that the parameter
fluctuation has little effect on LCC, but its share in LCC is very
big, so the policymakers should focus on this parameter.
(5) If the size of
max
min is big and the size of
max +
min is small, we can see the share of this
parameter in LCC is small, but the influence of its fluctuation
on LCC should not be ignored.
(6) If the size of
max +
min and
max
min

both are very small, it means the parameter is not very


important. it can be ignored when the request is not high during
the LCC analysis accuracy.

IV. THE EXAMPLE ANALYSIS


We select a kind of 220 kV power transformers as an
example, according to the life cycle cost model, we analyze the
cost ratio and sensitivity. Transformer model parameters are
shown in table 3.
According to the calculation formula of LCC model which is
established in this paper, we can use the data from table 3 to get
transformer life cycle cost of each part, as shown in table 4.
In order to obtain the share of all kinds of costs in LCC, we
get the proportion of LCC, as shown in figure 1.
Environmental Cost
4.28%

Operation Cost
59.30%

Preventive Test Cost


1.47%

Maintenance Cost
12.64%

Chengdu, 20-22 Oct. 2014

Paper No CP1692

in

Failure Cost
0.97%

Disposal Cost
0.14%

Investment Cost
21.20%

Fig. 1 Transformer LCC proportional pie chart

We can know from figure 1, in the LCC of transformer, the


initial investment cost, operation cost and maintenance cost
respectively account for 21.20%, 59.30% and 12.64%, a total of
93.14%. They account for the most of LCC, and environmental
cost, preventive test cost also should not be ignored. Failure
cost and disposal cost are in small share in LCC. So when total

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cost control LCC accordingly, we should focus on the initial


investment cost, operation cost and maintenance cost during
controlling LCC.As the country increasingly pay attention to
environmental protection and put forward more and more
punishment measures, environmental cost should also be taken
into consideration seriously.
We can get the parameters which affect the LCC, they
respectively are
,
,
,
,
, , , ,
, ,
,
, , , ,
,
, ,
, and . In
order to facilitate analysis, we mark the parameters with the No.
1 ~ 21 and list their numerical range, which are shown in table
5.
TABLE III Transformer model parameters
Model parameters
Value
Capacity(MVA)
180
Expected life (years)
25
Expected time of scrapped(years)
25
No-load loss coefficient
0.0664%
Load loss coefficient
0.5865%
3
Failure rate parameter
Failure rate parameter

8.55

Failure rate parameter

0.00001

Failure rate parameter

0.69

Failure rate parameter

4.8

Overhaul period (years)


Overhaul rate increase
Initial cost ( ten thousand yuan)
The preventive test cycle (years)
The projected rate of salvage value
Retired cleaning cost (ten thousand yuan)
Recycling net salvage value (ten thousand yuan)
Scheduled outages time each year (hours)
actual outages time each year (hours)
Model parameters
Initial artificial cost per year (ten thousand yuan)
Initial years operation other cost (ten thousand
yuan)
The initial premium per year(ten thousand yuan)
The initial year loan interest
Average artificial cost of once minor repair(ten
thousand yuan)
Average machinery cost of once minor repair(ten
thousand yuan)
average material cost of once minor repair(ten
thousand yuan)
Average other cost of once minor repair (ten
thousand yuan)
Average artificial cost of once overhaul(ten
thousand yuan)
Average machinery cost of once overhaul(ten
thousand yuan)
Average material cost of once overhaul(ten
thousand yuan)
Average device cost of once overhaul (ten
thousand yuan)
Average other cost of once overhaul (ten
thousand yuan)
Labor costs of the preventive test (ten thousand
yuan)
The mechanical cost of preventive test (ten
thousand yuan)

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8
0%
1513
3
5%
1.5
41
10
12
Valu
Annual
e
Gradient
4.64
15.00%
0

0%

0
0

0%
0%

2.45

10.86%

0.17

18.58%

0.64

4.69%

0.26

13.33%

5.45

10.27%

0.32

10.27%

0.99

10.27%

12.0
4

10.27%

1.26

10.27%

6.98

10.28%

0.44

7.00%

Paper No CP1692

Chengdu, 20-22 Oct. 2014

The material cost of preventive test (ten thousand


yuan)
The other cost of preventive test (ten thousand
yuan)
Average annual repair cost (ten thousand yuan)
Average annual repair time (hours)

1.27

4.44%

2.28

-2.46%

0.89
8.6

0%
0%

TABLE IV The proportion of transformer LCC analysis


Types of cost
Investment Cost

The amount/ten thousand yuan


1513

Operation Cost

4236

Environmental Cost

306
105

Preventive Test Cost


Maintenance Cost

903

Failure Cost

72.8

Disposal Cost

9.95

TABLE V Number and range of parameters


Serial number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Parameters

Numerical range(max, mid, min)


(1300,1500,1700)
(230,250,270)
(16,18,20)
(50,54,58)
(4.2,4.4,4.6)
(0.000047,0.000048,0.000049)
(56,60,64)
(0.000018,0.000021,0.000024)
(11,13,15)
(2.88,3.00,3.12)
(19,21,23)
(3.3,3.5,3.7)
(0.040,0.42,0.44)
(15000,20000,25000)
(11,12,13)
(0.87,0.88,0.89)
(7.5,8.5,9.5)
(0.0020,0.0022,0.0024)
(24.4,24.6,24.8)
(7.8,8.0,8.2)
(3.6,4.0,4.4)

Then we use traditional sensitivity analysis method and


comprehensive sensitivity analysis method respectively to
analyze the parameter, the results are shown in figure 2, 3.
As shown in figure 2, 3, if we use the traditional sensitivity
analysis method, the parameters 6 and parameter 8 are highest
sensitivity parameters, parameter 20 and 21 take the second
place, the sensitivity of parameters 7,13 and 16 are normal, the
sensitivity of parameter 14 is the lowest, the rest of the
parameter sensitivity is low; And if we use comprehensive
sensitivity analysis method, parameters 20 and 21 account for
the largest in the LCC, their sensitivity also are the highest; the
proportion and sensitivity of parameter 7 are both high;
Parameters 1,2 and 6 account for a large proportion, and at the
same time they have high sensitivity. Parameter 18 accounts for
a minimum proportion, and its sensitivity is the lowest; The rest
of the parameters account for a small proportion, their
sensitivity also are low.
Compare the traditional sensitivity analysis and the
comprehensive sensitivity analysis results, the following
conclusions can be found:
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2014 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON 2014)

(1) The conclusion of some parameters, such as social discount


rate, the rate of inflation and the load rate, which are obtained
by the two methods are consistent, they all have great influence
on the LCC, their variation can lead to severe changes of LCC,
so we need to do a good job in market research and feasibility
analysis during making decision.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Fig. 2 Traditional LCC sensitivity analysis diagram

Chengdu, 20-22 Oct. 2014

more scientific and reasonable than the traditional sensitivity


analysis method.

V. CONCLUSION
(1) The model which is built in this paper adds environmental
cost model, including the punishment cost of greenhouse gases,
the punishment cost of the electromagnetic radiation, the
punishment cost of noise pollution. At the same time, we have
completed the model of other links. It is more comprehensive,
scientific and reasonable.
(2) This paper proposes the comprehensive sensitivity analysis
method. It considers the sensitivity coefficient and parameter
values, so it makes up for the deficiency of the traditional
sensitivity analysis method. The example verifies the scientific
and rationality of comprehensive sensitivity analysis method,
this method can play a certain guiding role in the engineering
practice of transformer LCC control.
REFERENCES
[1]

[2]

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Fig. 3 Comprehensive LCC sensitivity analysis diagram

(2) The comprehensive sensitivity of load rate is very high, it


reflects that the operation cost proportion in LCC is very big
and the sensitivity is very high, so we need to use low-energy
transformer or modern means of management and maintenance
to decrease the operation cost.
(3) The sensitivity of some parameters such as the probability
of overhaul and repair costs is very high through traditional
sensitivity analysis, these parameters need to be focused on.
The conclusion of comprehensive sensitivity analysis is that
these parameters sensitivity are high, but their proportion is not
large, so their impact on LCC is very small. We need not pay
great attention on them.
(4) The sensitivity of initial investment cost and operation cost
are very low by traditional sensitivity analysis. It seems that
these parameters can be ignored. But the results of
comprehensive sensitivity analysis are opposite. Though their
sensitivity is not high, but they account for a large proportion in
the LCC, so we must attach great importance to these
parameters in the transformer LCC control.
(5) The emission cost of unit consumption reflects the
punishment cost for the electric power enterprise doing harm to
the environment, its sensitivity which is obtained by two
methods is very high. The fluctuation of this parameter will
cause the great change of LCC. As the society pay more and
more attention to environmental protection, the appropriate
punishment will be more and more severe, so the proportion of
environment cost in LCC will be dramatic growth. The
enterprise must pay attention to it.
Above all, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis method is

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Paper No CP1692

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2014 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON 2014)

Chengdu, 20-22 Oct. 2014

Author's brief introduction:


QIAO Guo-hua(1979-), male, senior engineer, State Grid Hebei Electric
Power Company, engaged in materials management.
REN Zheng(1988-), male, master student, the research direction is electric
power system and its automation.
SU Lei(1985-), male, engineer, State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company
Supply Branch, engaged in material quality supervision.
ZHANG Bo(1979-), male, senior political divisions, State Grid Hebei
Electric Power Company, engaged in technical innovation.
XING Jian-gang(1987-), male, engineer, State Grid Hebei Electric Power
Company Maintenance Branch, engaged in supplies quality supervision.
ZHAN Xiang-ling(1990-), male, master student, the research direction is
electric power system and its automation.

POWERCON 2014

Paper No CP1692

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