A rainfall – runoff model describes the relation between the rainfall and runoff for a
particular catchment area. Rainfall–runoff modelling can be carried out within a purely analytical
framework based on observations of the inputs to and outputs from a catchment area. The relationship
between rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is quite complex. The aim of this paper is to
develop Fuzzy Logic Model to estimate runoff for any amount of rainfall given for the area considered.
The area considered for the study is Devgadhbaria of Panam catchment area, Gujarat, India. The data
considered are for the months of June, July, August, September and October for 10 years, i.e. 1996 to
2005. The whole length of data is divided into two parts for training of model and for validation of the
model. In 70%-30%, data set where 70% data are used for training of the model and 30% data are used
for validation process and similarly for 60%-40% and 80%-20% data sets. The model operates on an ‗ifthen‘
principle, where the ‗if‘ is a vector of fuzzy premises and the ‗then‘ is a vector of fuzzy
consequences. Three Fuzzy Logic Models i.e., FL Model 1, FL Model 2 and FL Model 3 have been
developed considering data set of 70%-30%, data set of 60%-40% and data set of 80%-20% respectively.
All Fuzzy Logic Model developed with nine numbers of linguistic variables for each input and output. The
best Fuzzy Logic Model has been analysed on basis of various performance indices, i.e., the Root Mean
Square Error and Co-efficient of determination. Among all three models, the best Fuzzy Logic model is
Fuzzy Logic (FL) Model 2 with the RMSE of 3.42 mm by training and 4.55 mm by validation of the model,
and co-efficient of determination by training of the model is 0.9954 and by validation of the model is

© All Rights Reserved

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A rainfall – runoff model describes the relation between the rainfall and runoff for a
particular catchment area. Rainfall–runoff modelling can be carried out within a purely analytical
framework based on observations of the inputs to and outputs from a catchment area. The relationship
between rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is quite complex. The aim of this paper is to
develop Fuzzy Logic Model to estimate runoff for any amount of rainfall given for the area considered.
The area considered for the study is Devgadhbaria of Panam catchment area, Gujarat, India. The data
considered are for the months of June, July, August, September and October for 10 years, i.e. 1996 to
2005. The whole length of data is divided into two parts for training of model and for validation of the
model. In 70%-30%, data set where 70% data are used for training of the model and 30% data are used
for validation process and similarly for 60%-40% and 80%-20% data sets. The model operates on an ‗ifthen‘
principle, where the ‗if‘ is a vector of fuzzy premises and the ‗then‘ is a vector of fuzzy
consequences. Three Fuzzy Logic Models i.e., FL Model 1, FL Model 2 and FL Model 3 have been
developed considering data set of 70%-30%, data set of 60%-40% and data set of 80%-20% respectively.
All Fuzzy Logic Model developed with nine numbers of linguistic variables for each input and output. The
best Fuzzy Logic Model has been analysed on basis of various performance indices, i.e., the Root Mean
Square Error and Co-efficient of determination. Among all three models, the best Fuzzy Logic model is
Fuzzy Logic (FL) Model 2 with the RMSE of 3.42 mm by training and 4.55 mm by validation of the model,
and co-efficient of determination by training of the model is 0.9954 and by validation of the model is

© All Rights Reserved

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Rainfall Runoff Model

N. H. Patel1, T. M. V. Suryanarayana2

1

Faculty of Technology and Engineering, The M. S. University of Baroda, Samiala 391 410, Gujarat, India.

2

(Associate Professor, Water Resources Engineering and Management Institute,

Faculty of Technology and Engineering, The M. S. University of Baroda, Samiala 391 410, Gujarat, India.

ABSTRACT: A rainfall runoff model describes the relation between the rainfall and runoff for a

particular catchment area. Rainfallrunoff modelling can be carried out within a purely analytical

framework based on observations of the inputs to and outputs from a catchment area. The relationship

between rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is quite complex. The aim of this paper is to

develop Fuzzy Logic Model to estimate runoff for any amount of rainfall given for the area considered.

The area considered for the study is Devgadhbaria of Panam catchment area, Gujarat, India. The data

considered are for the months of June, July, August, September and October for 10 years, i.e. 1996 to

2005. The whole length of data is divided into two parts for training of model and for validation of the

model. In 70%-30%, data set where 70% data are used for training of the model and 30% data are used

for validation process and similarly for 60%-40% and 80%-20% data sets. The model operates on an ifthen principle, where the if is a vector of fuzzy premises and the then is a vector of fuzzy

consequences. Three Fuzzy Logic Models i.e., FL Model 1, FL Model 2 and FL Model 3 have been

developed considering data set of 70%-30%, data set of 60%-40% and data set of 80%-20% respectively.

All Fuzzy Logic Model developed with nine numbers of linguistic variables for each input and output. The

best Fuzzy Logic Model has been analysed on basis of various performance indices, i.e., the Root Mean

Square Error and Co-efficient of determination. Among all three models, the best Fuzzy Logic model is

Fuzzy Logic (FL) Model 2 with the RMSE of 3.42 mm by training and 4.55 mm by validation of the model,

and co-efficient of determination by training of the model is 0.9954 and by validation of the model is

0.9921 which are nearer to 1, which may be used for prediction of future runoff for the area considered

under study for any amount of rainfall given. The threshold rainfall has been determined for the area

considered under study, which is 27 mm. So it gives a fair idea of the minimum amount of rainfall

required for runoff generation in Devgadhbaria of Panam catchment area.

I. INTRODUCTION

A rainfall runoff model is a mathematical model describing the rainfallrunoff relations of a rainfall

catchment area, drainage basin or watershed. More precisely, it produces the surface runoff hydrograph as a

response to a rainfall hydrograph as input. In other words, the model calculates the conversion of rainfall into

runoff. Rainfallrunoff modelling can be carried out within a purely analytical framework based on observations

of the inputs and outputs. Some models developed in this way are described where it is shown that it may also be

possible to make some physical interpretation of the resulting models based on an understanding of the nature of

catchment response. This understanding should be the starting point for any rainfallrunoff modelling study. The

relationship between rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is quite complex and is influenced by the

most of factors relating to the catchment and climate.

Dubkov [3] said that rainfall-runoff models have a wide application. Some of the models are used

for hydrological simulations, some for runoff estimation of ungauged basins, for prediction of catchment

response to changed conditions as well as for water quality investigations and measurements of meteorological

impacts. At present, the watershed management gains the attention as well. Rainfall-Runoff modelling has

already achieved important advancement in the past hundred years; there is still wide room for its further

| IJMER | ISSN: 22496645 |

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An Use Of Fuzzy Logic For Development and Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Model

development. Mainly, the introduction of computing technologies offered, and is still offering, a lot of new

possibilities.

Zadeh [4] applied the fuzzy theory to mathematically deal with the imprecision and uncertainty. Fuzzy

logic extends upon traditional Boolean logic and deals with the imprecision in human experience. In attempt to

obtain more flexibility and more effective capability of handling and processing uncertainties of complicated and

ill-defined systems, Zadeh [4] proposed a linguistic approach as the model of human thinking which introduced

fuzziness into systems theory. The goal of developing simple and efficient control strategies for complex

systems has provided significant challenges to traditional control methodologies. It has also triggered a new field

of research known as Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC). The new area originated from the seminal work of Zadeh on

fuzzy algorithms [4] which introduced the idea of formulating the control algorithm by logical IF-THEN rules.

Zadeh [5] said that from precision in the face of overpowering complexity, it is natural to explore the use of what

might be called linguistic variables, that is, variables whose values are not numbers but words or sentences in a

natural or artificial language. The motivation for the use of words or sentences rather than numbers is that

linguistic characterizations are, in general, less specific than numerical ones. Several studies have been carried

out using fuzzy logic in hydrology and water resources planning.

Aytek et al. [1] said that the relationship between rainfall and runoff is an important issue in surface

hydrology. The accurate amount of stream flow from rainfall occupies an important place in the hydrological

cycle. The need to predict the quantitative amount of rainfall and runoff is necessary to avoid risks of rain on the

catchments and to warn the floods. Nawaz [7] presented results of further evaluation tests of a monthly rainfallrunoff model used for extending streamflow data records in England and Wales. Many different models exist to

simulate the physical processes of the relationship between precipitation and runoff. Some of them are based on

simple and easy-to-handle concepts, others on highly sophisticated physical and mathematical approaches that

require extreme effort in data input and handling. Recently, mathematical methods using linguistic variables,

rather than conventional numerical variables applied extensively in other disciplines, are encroaching in

hydrological studies. Among these is the application of a fuzzy rule-based modelling. Hundecha et al. [8]

developed fuzzy rule-based routines to simulate the different processes involved in the generation of runoff from

precipitation. Hasan [6] presented the improvement of the fuzzy inference model primarily developed for

predicting rainfall with data from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Soil Climate Analysis

Network (SCAN) Station at the Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University (AAMU) Campus for the year

2004. Pawar et al. [2] developed fuzzy logic based runoff prediction model using current days rainfall as input

and daily runoff as output for a Harsul watershed of Godavari basin in the Nashik district of Maharashtra, India.

Patel and Suryanarayana [10] developed best linear and non linear regression model for the Devgadhbaria

raingauge station of Panam Catchment area and also determined the threshold rainfall, which is 12 mm.

Panam River is the major tributary of Mahi River. There are 14 raingauge stations in the whole

catchment area. Among that 14 raingauge stations, Devgadhbaria raingauge station is selected for the study, as it

has largest catchment area among all rainguage stations of Panam catchment area.

The daily data of rainfall and discharge of Devgadhbaria raingauge station of Panam catchment area

have been collected from the State Water Data Center, Gandhinagar from the year 1996 to 2005 of the months

June, July, August, September and October. The runoff were determined by Andhariya and Suryanarayana [9].

That rainfall and runoff is taken for the present study of Rainfall Runoff Modelling using Fuzzy Logic.

In systems modeling and control, there are many difficulties which are commonly experienced by

practicing engineers. For instance, it is generally difficult to accurately model a complex process by a

mathematical model. The methodology of the fuzzy-logic modeling and control, based on fuzzy set theory and

fuzzy logic, appears promising when the phenomena are too complex for analysis by conventional quantitative

techniques, when the available sources of information are interpreted qualitatively, inexactly or uncertainly,

and/or when qualitative and often conflicting performance objectives are considered. Thus, fuzzy-logic modeling

and control may be viewed as a step towards a rapprochement between conventional and precise analytical

approach and human-like decision making. The decision-making ability of the fuzzy model depends on the

existence of a set of rules and a fuzzy reasoning mechanism.

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An Use Of Fuzzy Logic For Development and Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Model

The Fuzzy Logic (FL) model operates on an if-then principle, where the if is a vector of fuzzy

premises and the then is a vector of fuzzy consequences, to apply this principles efficiently, a Fuzzy Inference

System (FIS) is a control system built using fuzzy set theory based on combining the fuzzy sets from each rule

through aggregation operator to get a fuzzy set result, then defuzzify the fuzzy set for each output variable. A

fuzzy set is totally characterized by a membership function (MF). The output membership functions in this study

(namely runoff) is not necessarily linear, the FIS Mamdani has been adopted as it represents the output (runoff)

more realistically.

1.

2.

3.

4.

Fuzzification of Input and output variables using convenient linguistics subsets such as low, medium,

high, etc.

IF-Then rules constructed based on expert knowledge and available information to combine the linguistic

inputs subsets to the output fuzzy sets using the logical operator such as and.

The implication part of fuzzy system is defined as the shape of the consequent based on the premise

(antecedent) part.

Finally, having a crisp value, the resulted fuzzy set is defuzzified using the appropriate defuzzification

method such as centroid.

The data used for applying Fuzzy Rule to the developed model is Rainfall (mm) as input and Runoff (mm) as

output.

Here, the whole length of data is divided into two parts for training and for validation of the model. The

three data sets have been made i.e., 70%-30%, 60%-40% and 80%-20%. In 70%-30% data set where 70% data

are used for development of the model and 30% data are used for validation process and similarly for 60%-40%

and 80%-20% data sets.

By observing the range of data i.e. rainfall and runoff, the range is divided into subsets for each

linguistic variable. Here, same numbers of linguistic variables are taken for rainfall and runoff, because rainfall

is directly proportional to runoff. This type of fuzzy logic model may be developed with three, five, seven and

more numbers of linguistic variables. Here, Models have been developed considering nine linguistic variables

i.e., very very vey low, very very low, very low, low, medium, high, very high, very very high and very very very

high for both input and output.

Three Fuzzy Logic Models i.e., Model 1, Model 2 and Model 3 have been developed considering data

set of 70:30%, data set of 60:40% and data set of 80:20% respectively. Based on the RMSE and co-efficient of

determination (r2), the best model has been analysed.

It should be noted that a certain amount of rainfall is always required before any runoff occurs. This

amount, usually referred to as threshold rainfall, represents the initial losses due to interception and depression

storage as well as to meet the initially high infiltration losses. The threshold rainfall depends on the physical

characteristics of the area and varies from catchment to catchment. By putting different values of rainfall in the

best model developed, the threshold rainfall has been obtained where the value of runoff exceeds zero.

The three Fuzzy Logic (FL) Models have been developed for prediction of runoff value for the area

considered under study.

FL Model 1 for 70%-30% dataset, in which 70% data is used for training of the model and 30% data is

used for validation of the model. Similarly, FL Model 2 for 60%-40% dataset and FL Model 3 for 80%-20%

dataset.

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An Use Of Fuzzy Logic For Development and Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Model

Fig. 1: Actual Runoff vs. Predicted Runoff by Fuzzy Logic Model 1 during training for 70%-30% dataset

Fig. 1 shows, the comparison of actual Runoff (mm) and predicted runoff (mm) by FL Model 1 during training

for 70%-30% dataset.

Fig. 2: Actual Runoff vs. Predicted Runoff by Fuzzy Logic Model 1 during

Validation for 70%-30% dataset

| IJMER | ISSN: 22496645 |

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An Use Of Fuzzy Logic For Development and Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Model

Fig. 2 shows, the comparison of actual Runoff (mm) and predicted runoff (mm) by FL Model 1 during training

for 70%-30% dataset.

Fig. 3: Actual Runoff vs. Predicted Runoff by Fuzzy Logic Model 2 during training for 60%-40% dataset

Fig. 3 shows, the comparison of actual Runoff (mm) and predicted runoff (mm) by FL Model 2 during training

for 60%-40% dataset.

Fig. 4: Actual Runoff vs. Predicted Runoff by Fuzzy Logic Model 2 during

Validation for 60%-40% dataset

Fig. 4 shows, the comparison of actual Runoff (mm) and predicted runoff (mm) by FL Model 2 during validation

for 60%-40% dataset.

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An Use Of Fuzzy Logic For Development and Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Model

Fig. 5: Actual Runoff vs. Predicted Runoff by Fuzzy Logic Model 3 during training for 80%-20% dataset

Fig. 5 shows, the comparison of actual Runoff (mm) and predicted runoff (mm) by FL Model 3 during training

for 80%-20% dataset.

Fig. 6: Actual Runoff vs. Predicted Runoff by Fuzzy Logic Model 3 during validation for 80%-20%

dataset

Fig. 6 shows, the comparison of actual Runoff (mm) and predicted runoff (mm) by FL Model 3 during validation

for 80%-20% dataset.

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An Use Of Fuzzy Logic For Development and Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Model

The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by training of the Model & by validation of the model and also coefficient of determination (r2) by training & by validation of the Model are shown in Table 1 below:

Model

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

r2

By training

0.9950

By validation

0.9922

By training

0.9954

By validation

0.9921

By training

0.9825

By validation

0.9909

RMSE (mm)

3.44

4.85

3.42

4.55

6.33

5.51

From Table 1, the obtained RMSE of the Model 2 is around 4% less than Model 1 and around 33% less

than Model 3 and co-efficient of determination (r2) of Model 2 is more nearer to 1. So, Model 2 is best Fuzzy

Logic model for the area considered under study.

A certain amount of rainfall is always required before any runoff occurs. By putting different values of

rainfall in the best model developed, the threshold rainfall has been obtained where the value of runoff exceeds

zero. The threshold value of rainfall, by the best model of the study, is 27 mm. Which shows, at 27 mm of the

rainfall, the runoff occurs.

IV. CONCLUSION

It can be concluded that the all three Fuzzy Logic Rainfall Runoff Models gives good output for the

period considered for the study. Among all three Rainfall Runoff Fuzzy Logic Models, which are developed

with nine linguistic variables, the best model is selected on the basis of RMSE and co-efficient of determination

(r2).So, the best Fuzzy Logic model is Fuzzy Logic (FL) Model 2 as it has less RMSE i.e., 3.42 mm during

training phase and 4.55 mm during validation phase, when compared to remaining models and co-efficient of

determination (r2) values are nearer to 1, i.e., 0.9954 by training and 0.9921 by validation. Therefore, the best

Fuzzy Logic Model may be used for prediction of future runoff for any amount of rainfall given for

Devgadhbaria of Panam Catchment area. Also, the threshold rainfall by the best Fuzzy Logic Rainfall Runoff

model is obtained to be 27 mm, which is applicable to the area considered under the study. So, it gives a fair idea

of the minimum amount of rainfall required for runoff generation in Devgadhbaria of Panam catchment area.

REFERENCES

Journal Papers:

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

A. Aytek, M. Asce, M. Alp, An application of artificial intelligence for rainfallrunoff modeling, Journal of Earth

System Science, 117(2), 2008, 145155.

D. B. Pawar, P. Kumar, P. Kyada, Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using Fuzzy Technique For A Small Watershed In

Maharashtra, India, International Journal of Engineering and management science, 4(3), 2013, 388-394.

K. Dubkov, Rainfall-Runoff modeling : Its development, Classification and possible applications, ACTA

Geographica universitatis comenianae, 54(2), 2010, 173-181.

L. A. Zadeh, Outline of a New Approach to the Analysis of Complex Systems and Decision Processes, IEEE

transactions on systems, man and cybernetics, 3(1), 1973, 28-44.

L. A. Zadeh, The Concept of a Linguistic Variable and its Application to Approximate Reasoning-I, Information

sciences 8, 1975, 199-249.

M. Hasan, X. Shi, T. Tsegaye, N. U. Ahmed, S. M. M. Khan, Rainfall Prediction Model Improvement by Fuzzy

Set Theory, Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 5, 2013, 1-11.

N. R. Nawaz, A. J. Adeloye, Evaluation of monthly runoff estimated by a rainfall-runoff regression model for

reservoir yield assessment, Hydrological SciencesJournaldes Sciences Hydrologiques, 44, 1999, 113-134.

Y. Hundecha, A. Bardossy, H. Theisen, Development of a fuzzy logic-based rainfall-runoff model, Hydrological

Sciences-Journal~des Sciences Hydrologiques, 46(3), 2001, 363-376.

Theses:

[9]

B. Andhariya, Modification of SCS Curve numbers and application of artificial neural network and fuzzy logic for

rainfall runoff modelling of Panam catchment area, an unpublished dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment

of M.E.(civil) in WRE at The M. S. University of Baroda, Baroda, Gujarat, India, 2007.

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An Use Of Fuzzy Logic For Development and Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Model

Proceedings Papers:

[10]

Runoff Generation, Proc. National Seminar on Water Management & Climate Smart Agriculture Organized by

Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, Gujarat, India, 2015.

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