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2 The features of models

Figure 5.2 and figure 5.3 display rice productivity in wetland and dryland farming, respectively, between 1976
and 2011. These figures reproduce a combination of convex and linear patterns. This means that rice productivity in
wetland and dryland farming may follow linear and quadratic trends (Gujarati, 2004). In order to capture linear and
quadratic trends, a time variable and its squared term are embedded into statistical models (Gujarati, 2004).
Figure 5.2 shows that rice productivity in wetland farming may have a structural break in 1996. In 1996, the
government of Indonesia ratified Agreement of Agriculture of WTO which has led to a higher rice import, causing a
decrease rice productivity (Hasibuan, 2015). A dummy variable, dummy1996, is inserted into a statistical model to
represent this structural break. As shown later, a statistical analysis proves that this dummy variable is statistically
significant, meaning this structural break is statistically proven.
As dryland farming covers less than 10% of total paddy production, the government had little attention on
dryland farming (Toha, 2012). This may reason an absence of structural break in 1996 for wetland farming. However,
rice productivity in dryland farming has increased significantly since the national program for the rice production
(P2BN) has started in 2008. This may be caused a structural break in 2008 in dryland farming. A dummy variable,
dummy2008, is embedded into a statistical model representing dryland farming and statistical analysis shows that this
dummy variable is statistically significant.
Table 5.3 and table 5.4 summarize a full list correlations for wetland and dryland farming respectively.
Correlation analysis reveals that minimum temperature tends to negatively affect rice yield of dryland farming (r=
-.55, p<.01) and wetland rice (r= -.52, p<.05). However, rainfall (r=-.06, p>.1 for dryland farming and r=.09, p>.1 for
wetland farming) and maximum temperature (r=-.18, p>.1 for dryland farming and r=-.14, p>.1 for wetland farming)
have the insignificant impact on rice yields. Insignificance of rainfall is supported by another study (Wang et al., 2013)
claiming that rainfall has not the significant impacts on rice yield as wetland farming is surrounded by irrigation
Furthermore, as observed maximum temperature is lower than 36 0C (Gourdji, Sibley & Lobell, 2013), the rice
threshold for maximum temperature, the impacts of maximum temperature on rice yields is not significant. Again, the
insignificance of maximum temperature may be caused by transpirational cooling as irrigation facility around wetland
farming may reduce the ambient temperature.
In the case of production factors, pesticide is not significant in wetland farming (r=.35, p>.1) and in dryland
farming (r=-.07, p>.1). This finding is supported by low harvest failures due to pests and diseases (Dinas Pertanian,
2012; Hutapea, 2012; Piao, 2010; Sari, 2012). Again, pesticide has the insignificant impact as new paddy varieties
have been introduced regularly to overcome new pests and diseases (Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia,

In case of capital1 (r=.14, p>.1), it is not significantly correlated with rice yields of dryland farming. Land
preparation of dryland is difficult to apply as the soil is hard (Kartaatmadja et al., 2004). As dryland farming usually
consists of hard soil, the application of machine such as tractors will not be beneficial (Wirajaswadi, 2004) . In wetland
farming, capital (r= -.06, p>.1) is not significant as it is relatively difficult to apply tractors in plateau regions such as
West Nusa Tenggara.
labour (r=.43, p<.1) has a significant correlation with rice yields in wetland farming. As most farmers have
farming less than 0.5 ha (BPTP, 2004), the application of tractors is not economically. So, some farming practises such
as land preparation and sowing are manually handled by farmers. This leads to the significance of labour in wetland
farming. Thus, a statistical model of wetland farming should include labour and minimum temperature as independent
In dryland farming, seed (r=.55, p<.05) has a highly significant correlation with rice yields. Seed is highly
important as dryland farmers do not prepare land prior to rice planting seasons. Without land preparation and without
irrigation, the possibility of seed to grow well is relatively low. Hence, a higher application of seed is needed to
increase the possibility for seed to grow well. Hence, a statistical model of dryland farming should include minimum
temperature and seed as independent variables.
In the case of dryland farming, the impacts of pesticide is relatively minimal as weed, a main biotic barrier in
dryland farming, is manually eradicated through growing season (Wirajaswadi, 2004). This may also lead to overused
pesticide, leading to a negative correlation between pesticide and rice yields.
The most barrier of dryland paddy to grow, weed, is usually minimized by a higher labour (Wirajaswadi,
2004). Pests and diseases can also be minimized significantly by the application of Integrated Pest Management (IPM)
(BPTP, 2004). These may, respectively, explain overused labour and the insignificant effect of pesticide in dryland
Figure 5.10 and figure 5.11 display the application of seed (r=.07, p>.1) and fertilizer (r=.33, p>.1) from
1976 to 2011. Wetland farmers are likely to overuse seed as they apply seed about 60/kg/ha which is higher than the
optimum application about 35 kg/ha. As the optimum application nitrogen fertilizer is 125 kg/ha (Wirajaswadi, 2004;
BPTP, 2011), the application of nitrogen fertilizer about 200 kg/ha by farmers is overused. All of these are reasons for
insignificant correlations between fertilizer, seed and rice yields for wetland farming.
In case of dryland farming, labour is not significant (r=.13, p>.1) as dryland farming usually requires much
labour or overuses labour. In wetland farming, labour would be employed to sow seed and to cut mature paddy.
Whereas, in dryland farming labour is not only sowing seed and cutting harvested paddy but also planting seed and
1 Capital is defined as total payment for application agricultural tools such as tractors and
hand sprayers. BPS (2011) claims that tractors are the most significant wetland agricultural
tool in West Nusa Tenggara.

handling weed through planting seasons and harvesting seasons, leading to overuse labour in dryland farming (The
Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, 2004; Kartaatmadja, 2004, Wirajaswadi, 2004).