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2 The features of statistical models

Figure 5.2 and figure 5.3 display rice productivity in wetland and dryland farming, respectively, between 1976
and 2011. These figures reproduce a combination of convex and linear patterns. This means that rice productivity in
wetland and dryland farming may follow linear and quadratic trends (Gujarati, 2004). In order to capture linear and
quadratic trends, a time variable and its squared term are embedded into statistical models (Gujarati, 2004).
Figure 5.2 shows that rice productivity in wetland farming may have a structural break in 1996. In 1996, the
government of Indonesia ratified Agreement of Agriculture of WTO which has led to a higher rice import, causing a
decrease rice productivity (Hasibuan, 2015). This may a main reason of a structural break in 1996. A dummy variable,
dummy1996, is inserted into a statistical model to represent this structural break. As shown later, a statistical analysis
proves that this dummy variable is statistically significant, meaning this structural break is statistically proven.
As dryland farming covers less than 10% of total paddy production, the government had little attention on
dryland farming (Toha, 2012). This may lead to an absence of structural break in 1996 for wetland farming. However,
rice productivity in dryland farming has increased significantly since the national program for the rice production
(P2BN) has started in 2008, leading to a structural break of dryland farming in 2008. A dummy variable, dummy2008,
is embedded into a statistical model representing dryland farming. Statistical analysis shows that this dummy variable
is statistically significant.
Table 5.3 and table 5.4 summarize a full list correlations for wetland and dryland farming respectively.
Correlation analysis reveals that minimum temperature tends to negatively affect rice yield of dryland farming (r=
-.55, p<.01) and wetland rice (r= -.52, p<.05). However, rainfall has the insignificant impacts on dryland farming
(r=-.06, p>.1) and on wetland farming (r=.09, p>.1). Likewise, maximum temperature has not significant impacts on
dryland farming (r=-.18, p>.1) and on wetland farming (r=-.14, p>.1). The insignificance of rainfall is supported by
another study (Wang et al., 2013) claiming that rainfall has not the significant impacts on rice yields irrigation facility
supplies water for wetland farming.
Furthermore, as observed maximum temperature is lower than 36 0C (Gourdji, Sibley & Lobell, 2013), the rice
threshold for maximum temperature, the impacts of maximum temperature on rice yields is not significant. Again, the
insignificance of maximum temperature may be caused by transpirational cooling, leading to a lower ambient
In the case of production factors, pesticide is not significant in wetland farming (r=.35, p>.1) and in dryland
farming (r=-.07, p>.1). This finding is supported by low harvest failures due to pests and diseases (Dinas Pertanian,
2012; Hutapea, 2012; Piao, 2010; Sari, 2012). Again, pesticide has the insignificant impact as new paddy varieties
have been introduced regularly to overcome new pests and diseases (Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia,

Moreover, the impacts of pesticide is relatively minimal as weed, a main biotic barrier in dryland farming, is
manually eradicated through growing season (Wirajaswadi, 2004). Likewise, the most barrier of dryland paddy to
grow, weed, is usually minimized by a higher labour (Wirajaswadi, 2004). Pests and diseases can also be minimized
significantly through Integrated Pest Management (IPM) (BPTP, 2004). These are main reasons the insignificance of
pesticide in wetland and dryland farming.
Capital1 (r=.14, p>.1) is not significantly correlated with rice yields of dryland farming. Land preparation of
dryland is difficult to apply as the soil is hard (Kartaatmadja et al., 2004). As dryland farming usually consists of hard
soil, the application of machine such as tractors will not be beneficial (Wirajaswadi, 2004). In wetland farming, capital
(r= -.06, p>.1) is not significant as it is relatively difficult to apply tractors in plateau regions such as West Nusa
Labour is not significant (r=.13, p>.1) as dryland farmers might overuse labour. In wetland farming, labour
would be employed to sow seed and to cut mature paddy. Whereas, in dryland farming labour is not only sowing seed
and cutting harvested paddy but also planting seed and handling weed through planting seasons and harvesting
seasons, leading to overuse labour in dryland farming (The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, 2004; Kartaatmadja,
2004, Wirajaswadi, 2004).
Figure 5.10 and figure 5.11 display the application of seed (r=.07, p>.1) and fertilizer (r=.33, p>.1) from
1976 to 2011. Wetland farmers are likely to overuse seed as they apply seed about 60kg/ha which is higher than the
optimum application about 35 kg/ha. As the optimum application nitrogen fertilizer is 125 kg/ha (Wirajaswadi, 2004;
BPTP, 2011), the application of nitrogen fertilizer about 200 kg/ha by farmers is overused. All of these are reasons for
insignificant correlations among fertilizer, seed and rice yields for wetland farming.
Differing from mentioned production factors, seed (r=.55, p<.05) has a highly significant correlation with rice
yields of dryland farming. Seed is highly important as dryland farmers do not prepare land prior to rice planting
seasons. Without land preparation and without irrigation, the possibility of seed to grow up is relatively low. Hence, a
higher application of seed is needed to increase the possibility for seed to grow up. Hence, a statistical model of
dryland farming should include minimum temperature and seed as independent variables.
In the case of wetland farming, labour (r=.43, p<.1) has a significant correlation with rice yields in wetland
farming. As most farmers have farming less than 0.5 ha (BPTP, 2004), the application of tractors is not economically.
So, some farming practises such as land preparation and sowing are manually handled by farmers. This leads to the
significance of labour in wetland farming. Thus, a statistical model of wetland farming should include labour and
minimum temperature as independent variables.
1 Capital is defined as total payment for application agricultural tools such as tractors and
hand sprayers. BPS (2011) claims that tractors are the most significant wetland agricultural
tool in West Nusa Tenggara.