1

MARKET PULSE
September 2015

Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closed

transaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.

LASTTRANSACTION

Overbidding HasCooled Down in Recent Months, as

FewerTransactionsWere SoldAboveTheirAsking Price
Over

Below

At

60%
46%

50%
40%

31%

30%
20%

23%

10%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

0%

Premium Paid OverAsking Price Increased

Average
14.0%
12.0%

11.0%

10.0%

8.2%

8.1%

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Aug-15
Sep-15

May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15

Mar-15
Apr-15

Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15

Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

Jul-14
Aug-14

May-14
Jun-14

Apr-14

Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14

0.0%

Percent Paid BelowAsking Price Decreased Slightly

0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-14.0%

Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11% -10%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

63% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

80%
70%

63%
58%

58%

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

0%

Number ofOffers Received RemainedThe Same

Average

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5

2.4 2.4

2.2

2.0
1.5
1.0

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

0.0

Jan-14

0.5

Proportion of Properties with Listing Price Reductions

Decrease
35%

30%

30%

28%

27%

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

0%

10

Two-Fifths of theTransactionsWere Sold to Renters

60%
50%
42%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

45%
41%

11

Sellers Becoming Renters Increased Slightly

25%
20%

17%

15%
10%
5%
0%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

18%
16%

12

Share of First-time Buyers Remain Steady

45%

% First-time Buyers

Long Run Average

40%
35%

30%

30%

30%

29%

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

0%

13

An Increasing Number of PropertiesWere

Purchased as Investment
Primary residence

Investment

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Vacation home

Other

14%
27%

28%

79%

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

60% 62%

14

International Buyers Fluctuate

% International Buyers

Long Run Average

12%
10%
8%

7.0%

6%

6.0%

4%

3.0%

2%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

0%

15

MARKET CONDITIONS

16

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining

Last Month
Down

Flat

Up

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

0%

May-

10%

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

17

ListingAppointments/Presentations toClients
Slowing Down
Last Month

Down

Flat

Up

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your
market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

0%

18

Open HouseTraffic Continue to Dip

Down

Flat

Jul-14

Oct-14

Up

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Jul-15

19

Auctions Steady
Down

Flat

Up

80%
70%
60%

48%

50%
40%

40%

30%
20%

12%

10%
0%
Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

20

All Cash Purchases Up Slightly

Down

Flat

Up

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

41%
35%
25%

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

21

Half of REALTORS Expect Similar Market

ConditionsOver the NextYear
Worsen

Same

Improve

70%
60%

50%

50%

35%

40%
30%

15%

20%
10%

Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15

0%

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

22

Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen
Rise in interest rates
Tight lending
Lack of inventory
Wages not raising
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

23

REALTORSAreConcernedAboutAffordability and
Inventory
Lack of Inventory

22%

Decline in housing affordability

21%

Slow down in economic growth

15%

Home prices overinflated

12%

Lending & financing

8%

Rising Interest Rates

6%

Housing bubble

6%

Policies & Regulations

2%

Other

4%

No Concerns

4%
0%

5%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

10%

15%

20%

25%

24

What are REALTORS Saying?

Overbidding has cooled, buyers arent going dramatically over
asking, and the number of offers decreased Santa Clara
Market seems pretty stable with property prices seem to be
true to value - Kern
Drought and fires creating an erratic and unpredictable buying
and selling patterns - Madera

Concerns over TRID San Diego

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share
with us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or
other topics?

25

Top 10 Counties
August 2015

September 2015

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

San Diego

San Diego

San Bernardino

Orange

Riverside

Riverside

Orange

Santa Clara

Sacramento

Ventura

Alameda

San Bernardino

Contra Costa

Fresno

San Luis Obispo

Alameda

10

Ventura

Contra Costa

Q: In which county do you live?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS