HSCI130 Tutorial Exercises

Week 6: Incidence & Prevalence

1. In the year 2000, fifteen thousand
women without diagnosed high blood
pressure aged 45 years were tested
and 250 were found to have high
blood pressure. All of the women
were tested every five years for the
next twenty years.

YEAR
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

TOTAL
CASES
250
650
1150
2000
3300

a) What was the prevalence of high blood pressure among women at age 55?
1150/15,000
=0.076
=7.6% of women had HBP @ age 55 years
b) How many women were at risk of developing high blood pressure after
the first tests were completed in 2000?
15,000-250=14750 women were at risk after the first tests; 250
already had HBP
c) What was the incidence of high blood pressure in this population of
women? Is this a cumulative incidence or an incidence rate? Why?
CI=3300/15,000
=.22
=22%
2. In a community with a population of 25,000 people, 36 develop
diabetes during a 1 year period. What was the incidence rate of
diabetes in the community?
Incidence rate = (36/25,000) * 105 = 144 cases per 100,000
cases per year

3.
Day
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

Cases
0
0
1
5
10
10
5
2
1
1
1
0
0
0

An epidemiologist has been called in to track

the number of cases of a mysterious disease
in a population of 500 people.
Assume:
i) cases occur at the end of the day
ii)the disease does not recur in individuals
iii)the duration of the disease is one month

a) What is the cumulative incidence over the two week period?

CI= 36/500 = 0.072, =7.2%
b) What was the incidence rate over the first week / first seven days (MonSun)?
31/(469*7 days) +(1* 3 days)+(5*4 days)+(10*5)+(10*6 days)
+(5*7days)=31/3451=0.00898. 8.98 cases per 1000 person days
c) What was the incidence rate over the second week / second seven days
(Mon-Sun)?
5/(464*7)+(2*1 day)+(1*2 days)+(1*3 days)+(1*4 days)= 5 / 3259
= 0.0015. 1.5 cases per 1000 person days
4. A group of school children is followed for 2000 person days and 55
develop strep throat. What is the incidence rate of strep in this
school?

55/2000=0.0275. 27.5 cases per 1000 person days or 2.75 per

100 days
5. The population of a small town is 1500 people. Over the course of a
one year period, you are able to monitor cases of a new disease called
rainitis. A vaccine becomes available in the spring, but there is
limited supply.
Assume cases occur at the end of the month.
Assume immunity is achieved at the end of the month it occurs that
is, they were at risk for the month in which they were vaccinated.
Assume that the last data you have for people lost to follow up is the
month before they are lost.
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
TOTAL

Cases
0
0
5
15
15
25
40
50
25
20
5
0
200

Lost to Follow Up
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
20
20
10
10
80

Immune
0
0
0
0
20
50
50
100
100
50
0
0
370

a. What is the cumulative incidence of rainitis for the period January

June?
CI=60/1500=0.04=4%
b. What is the cumulative incidence of rainitis for the period September
December?

CI=50/1500-150 cases-20 lost-220 immune= 50/1110 = 0.045, 4.57%

c. What is the incidence rate of rainitis for January - April?
20 cases/(1480*4 months) + (5*3 months) + (15*4 months)
=20/5995=0.0033 = 3.3 cases per 1000 person months

d. What is the incidence rate of rainitis for May August?

130 cases = 15+25+40+50
__________________________
(1500-150 cases-20 lost-220 immune)*4 + { cases (15(1) + 25(2) + 40(3) +
50(4) } + {lost (10(2) + 10(3)} + { immune (20(1) + 50(2) + 50(3) + 100(4)}
130 / 4440 + (15+50+120+200) + 50 + (20+100+150+400)
130/5545=0.0234
23 cases per 1000 person months