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Exchange rate is a key determinant in international finance and turning of world into a
global village has just made this variable all the more important. Forex markets have
undergone many changes from setting up of Bretton Woods System in 1944 according to
which each country had to fix its currency exchange rate plus or minus 1 percent to its
abandonment in 1984 due to increased Balance of Trade deficit of U.S. Then it has
witnessed East Asian crisis of 1997 when majority of the currencies of East Asian countries
depreciated.
Now most of the countries follow a free floating exchange rate system. India's approach can
be characterized as intermediate since it follows a system between a freely floating and fully
managed system. This type of system is known as managed float system .Exchange rates
are allowed to float freely, but RBI intervenes when it feels necessary in the way it
considers suitable. For e.g. in order to curb appreciation of INR it may buy USD from the
market or it may increase the interest rates.
The Forex market like any other market is essentially governed by the law of supply and
demand. According to the law of supply, as prices rise for a given commodity (in this case
currency), the quantity of the item that is supplied will increase; conversely, as the price
falls, the quantity provided will fall. The law of demand states that as the price for an item
rises, the quantity demanded will fall. As the price for an item falls, the quantity demanded
will rise.
In the case of currency, it is the demand and supply of both domestic and foreign currency
that is considered. It is the interaction of these basic forces that results in the movement of
currency prices in the Forex market.
There are various factors in a macro-economic environment which affect the demand and
supply of a currency and in return affect the exchange rate.
µ?
If there are higher interest rates in home country then it will attract
investments from abroad in the form of FII, FDI and increased borrowings. This will
lead to increased supply of foreign currency. On the other hand, if the interest rates
are higher in the other country, investments will flow out leading to decreased supply
of foreign currency.
µ? -If inflation rates are high then the central bank will have to
reduce the supply of domestic currency in order to curb it. This would ultimately lead
to strong currency and vice versa.
µ? - All exchange rates are susceptible to political
instability and anticipations about the new government. All the market players get
worried about the policies and may start unwinding their positions thereby affecting
the demand and supply.
µ? Æ Strong domestic financial markets will also lead to
the strengthening of domestic currency as investors will be less worried about their
investments and vice versa.
This year (2007), a new chapter was written in the history of Indian Forex markets. INR has
shown considerable appreciation during the first half of the year. The year opened with a
value of Rs 44.20. It showed a minor depreciation of 0.9% in the first two weeks. It got
stabilised after this and moved within a range of Rs 44 ± 44.25 till February end. Again it
depreciated by 1% in the first week of March and closed at Rs 44.56 on 6 th March. But
since then USD has appreciated considerably. The rate went to Rs 40.6 at the end of June.
During the period between March and June there was an appreciation of about 9% in the
value of INR. ?
This appreciation is mainly on account of huge capital inflows and due to other steps taken
by the Government to control the inflation.
of all, RBI increased the " by 50 BPS in order to reduce the
disbursal of loans by banks and thereby reducing the money supply. Moreover it also
refrained from buying dollars from the market which led to decrease in demand of the
dollar. It also issued ² #
in order to remove liquidity form the
market.
²
$ there has been a massive capital inflow in the form of c"$
Æ this
year. ECBs in the first six months were 5.5 billion USD which is almost the double of what
was borrowed in the whole of 2006. Similarly in case of FIIs, they have already invested
USD 8.45 billion in first six months this year as compared to USD 7.99 billion last year. FDI
in India has also increased many folds. In the first four months itself, there has been an
investment of USD 8007 million and if we look at the same period of four months last year it
was just USD 2500 million recording an increase of over 200%.
%
Oil is an important commodity. India's oil import growth is at a 5 year low of 5.33% in the
first four months of the year 2007-08 as compared to massive growth rate of 43.23% last
year. India's Oil imports during the period were valued at US$ 19.878 billion as compared to
18.87 billion last year. We can't say that oil consumption has decreased as economy is
doing well so consumption is bound to increase. On the other hand the price per barrel has
increased sharply. So we can attribute this slowdown in growth to appreciation of INR
because this would have reduced the bills of the oil companies.
The question arises whether an appreciation of a currency is good or bad for a country. We
can say that it has its own advantages and disadvantages.
µ? The importers have benefited as they have to pay less of domestic currency in order
to pay their bills in foreign currency. The foreign products have become cheaper for
the domestic consumer which helps in keeping the inflation down.
µ? Consumers benefit when they travel abroad as the domestic currency will be able to
fetch more of foreign currency while exchanging.
µ? Investors can buy foreign stocks and bonds at lower prices.
Æ
4. " *
are also allowed to the companies. For
example, a corporate having underlying exposure in Yen, may book forward contract
between Dollar and Sterling.
&
*
$ ²$
% *
A person resident in India can enter into contracts other than forward contracts with the
authorized dealer subject to the following rules and regulations-
µ? The RBI has given approval for borrowing in the foreign currency.
µ? A resident in India who has a liability in foreign currency can enter into foreign
currency-rupee swap with an authorized dealer. But once cancelled, it can not be
rebooked under any derivative product. Moreover it is restricted to USD 50 million.
µ? The notional principal amount should not exceed the amount of foreign currency
loan.
µ? A person can enter into a foreign currency option contract (which doesn't involve
rupee) with an authorized dealer and it can be easily rebooked or cancelled.??
c Æ
An authorized dealer in India may remit outside India foreign exchange in respect of a
transaction, undertaken in accordance with these Regulations, in the following cases,
namely.
µ? Option premium payable by a person resident in India to a person resident outside
India ,
1. www.rbi.org.in
2. www.sebi.com
3. www.apexforex.com
4. www.economictimes.com
5. www.businessline.com?