High Seas Project Final Report

HIGH SEAS, HIGH STAKES
HIGH SEAS PROJECT FINAL REPORT

TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER
CONTENTS
Introduction
Context
Measuring ship emissions
5
6-7
8-12
Options for decarbonising shipping
14-17
Decarbonisation scenarios
18-27
Conclusions from High Seas
28-31
Policy insights
32-35
Acknowledgements
36-37
Bibliography of High Seas outputs
38-41
This report was written by members of the High Seas team. High Seas was an EPSRC-funded project based with the Tyndall Manchester research group within the School of
Mechanical Aerospace and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester. If citing this report, please use BowsLarkin, A., Mander, S., Gilbert, P., Traut, M., Walsh, C., and
Anderson, K. (2014) High Seas, High Stakes, High Seas Final Report, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
The printed version of this report is printed with soya-based inks on silk paper made from 100% recycled de-inked post-consumer waste.
INTRODUCTION
The international community has
committed to hold the increase in
global temperature below 2C, and take
action to meet this objective consistent
with science and on the basis of equity1.
This technical report explores options
available to the shipping sector in order
to support strategic decisions consistent
with this commitment.
Illustrate implications of the quantitative

framing of climate change for shipping
It is clear that the science of climate

change places stringent emissions
constraints on all sectors if the 2C
commitment is to be met. Fortunately, in
the case of the shipping sector, there is a
range of options for achieving significant
decarbonisation within appropriate
timeframes. Nevertheless, debate
focused on how to support the sector in
making a Scharnow turn2 to achieve
step-change decarbonisation measures
is low down the policy agenda in the UK,
EU and across the globe.
Summarise opportunities and scenarios

for rapid and significant decarbonisation
in shipping
Describe the shipping-specific policy

and broader context
Present a range of methodological
approaches for quantifying shipping
emissions
During the High Seas Project, the research

team have produced and disseminated
a broad array of academic and policyrelevant outputs. This technical report
summarises these outputs with links to
detailed published work for those seeking
more in-depth analysis.
This report serves to raise the profile of

shipping decarbonisation by highlighting
key research outputs from the EPSRCfunded High Seas Project. The report
aims to:
1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, The Copenhagen Accord. 2009 FCCC/CP/2009(L.7)
2. A Scharnow turn is a maneuver used to swiftly bring a ship back to a position previously passed through
HIGH SEAS FINAL REPORT
Consider the policy implications of the

High Seas Project research
CONTEXT
Despite ongoing climate negotiations
aimed at preventing a rise of 2C above
pre-industrial levels, growth in global
fossil fuel emissions continues across all
sectors. While the energy and industrial
sectors are generally at the heart of
mitigation policies, the increasing
urgency of the climate challenge is
leading to increased consideration of
mitigation options across all sectors,
including international aviation
and shipping.
In response, the International Maritime
Organisation (IMO) and the International
Chamber of Shipping (ICS) have stated
the shipping industry is committed to
playing its part in further reducing its
CO2 emissions, and that it must be
proportionate to shippings share of
the total global emissions (less than
3 per cent). The ICS also suggest that
shippings CO2 emission cuts should
be at least as ambitious as the CO2
emissions reduction agreed under any
new UN Climate Change Convention.
The High Seas Project undertook
detailed quantitative analysis to translate
high-level statements into what they
mean in terms of absolute reductions in
emissions, as well as rates of mitigation.
Working with global carbon budgets

and emission reduction pathways
commensurate with 2C, equivalent
pathways for the shipping sector were
derived. These were then compared with
the scenarios developed by the IMO
and presented in the 2nd Greenhouse
Gas Study,3 which included mitigation
measures such as the Energy Efficiency
Design Index (EEDI) introduced in 2013.
Results show that an approximate 50:50
chance of avoiding 2C demands around
a 70-80 per cent reduction in emissions
by 2050 from 1990 levels, with rates
of reduction of at least 6 per cent per
year following a peak date before 2020.
By contrast, IMO scenarios project
emissions rising by approximately 300
per cent between 1990 and 2050
(Figure 1).
If shipping is to drive down emissions
in line with a small and rapidly reducing
carbon budget accompanying the 2C
commitment, then the climate change
agenda for the industry is much more
challenging than the IMO analysis
suggests. For shipping to make a fair
and proportional contribution towards
avoiding 2C, a fundamental change in
its decarbonisation policy is necessary.
For more detail see: Anderson & Bows,

Executing a Scharnow Turn: reconciling
shipping emissions with international
commitments on climate change,
Special mini focus issue of Carbon
Management, 3, 615-628, 2012.
Sector-specific challenges
International shipping has enjoyed a long
history of growth. Typically, global trade
in terms of tonne-kms has grown at over
4 per cent p.a. since the 1990s. While
shipping facilitates increasingly diverse
trade patterns, such buoyant growth in
a sector reliant on fossil fuel combustion
has led to trends in CO2 emissions above
the global cross-sector average, with
growth of an estimated 3.7 per cent per
year since 1990 (Figure 2).
There is an array of features specific to
shipping that differentiates it from other
sectors. These features make encouraging
and incentivising decarbonisation
pathways a particular challenge. For a
start, there are many different actors
within the complex market structure that
spans nations and regions. Those with a
potential role in influencing the emissions
associated with ships or trade routes
include ship owners, operators,
3. Buhaug, O., Technical options for reduction of GHG emissions from ships. Presented to
MEPC 59 at the Second IMO GHG Study, 2009
Figure 1: Comparison of 2C emission pathways with

IMO scenarios, indexed to 1990=1. Published in Carbon
Management 3, 6, doi:10.4155/cmt.
With such a level of institutional

complexity, the sectors emissions are
extremely challenging to influence.
Moreover, climate change has typically
been lower down the IMOs agenda than
issues surrounding safety and minimising
local pollutants during the combustion of
marine fuel. Focusing on recent changes
to sulphur regulations highlights the
relatively low position of climate change
on the political agenda.
Marine fuel oil has a high sulphur
content, and when combusted, releases
sulphur oxides (SOx) that increase the
acidification potential of the surrounding
atmosphere. To address this, the IMO
devised Emission Control Areas (ECAs)
stipulating that from the 1st January 2015,
the maximum allowable sulphur content
of marine fuel combusted in an ECA will
be 0.1%. UK shipping will be included in

the North West European Waters ECA.
that could significantly reduce the sectors

carbon as well as sulphur emissions.
Three principal options are open to ship

owners to comply with the regulations
using low sulphur distillates, liquefied
natural gas and SOx scrubbers. The
recent strengthening of sulphur standards
is essentially encouraging a shift away
from marine fuel oil, yet by focusing
on sulphur in isolation, the regulations
are incentivising changes that ignore
opportunities to address the climate
challenge at the same time.
For more detail see: Gilbert, From

reductionism to systems thinking: how
the shipping sector can address sulphur
regulation and tackle climate change,
Marine Policy, 43, 376-378, 2014.
As this legislation is likely to lead to a

widespread change to the type of fuel
burned in marine engines, an opportunity
exists to explore co-benefits of sulphur
and carbon reduction. Instead, regulators
appear to be taking a short-sighted
approach that seems to give little strategic
thought to devising a co-ordinated suite
of measures to address local and global
pollution in unison.
charterers, shippers and port authorities.

Added into this mix are the various
governance channels that primarily
operate through the IMO, influencing
global shipping activity and ship
construction. Nation states or unions
of states, such as the EU, can influence
shipping activity in local waters and ports.
Finally, port authorities have some agency,
for example through fee-setting policies.
Figure 2: Comparison of the global average growth in CO2

emissions compared with the growth from the international
shipping sector, indexed to 1990=1 using data from the
International Energy Agency.
Such an approach could provide an

incentive to support more radical,
step-change forms of propulsion from the
outset, reducing the risks of infrastructure
lock-in and preventing lock-out of
technologies, such as wind propulsion,
MEASURING SHIP
EMISSIONS:
Industry insight:
A reflection on the industry at this
moment in time is that views are polarised
as to whether we face an imminent
quantum change in fuel supply (like we
saw when coal was replaced by fuel oil).
Or a more measured transitory mutation,
of more fuel efficient propulsion and
scrubbing of emissions.
(International Bunker Industry
Association Annual report,
2012/2013, page 5).
It is widely accepted that shipping must

reduce its CO2 emissions, but the actual
size of its global carbon wake is uncertain.
Typically, it is estimated to account for
about 3 per cent of global CO2. If combined
with CO2 from aviation, this is similar to
the total CO2 produced by the African or
Latin American continents, according to
IEA statistics.
ships because at frequent and regular time

intervals, all large ocean-going vessels
must send Automatic Identification System
(AIS) messages. These messages include
information about the vessels location
and speed (Figure 3). Satellites can pick
up these AIS messages. There are already
receivers in Earths orbit, with many
more planned.
While the 3 per cent figure is generally

accepted, methods established in the
literature (for instance, using activity-based
models; estimates derived from bunker fuel
sales etc.) that are generally used to derive
this number, make many assumptions and
generalisations. Perhaps more importantly,
most are unable to account for increases
in energy efficiency through, for instance,
slow steaming.
Working with AIS data gathered by both

satellite and shore-based receivers to
track a sample of cargo vessels, a model
for reconstructing vessel movements and
estimating their fuel consumption has
been developed for the High Seas Project.
Taking an example vessel, model results
can be compared with fuel consumption
data recorded in noon reports (Figure
4). Results suggest that the method
provides more accurate estimates than
others currently used. Crucially, it can give
geographically and temporarily resolved
estimates, in near-real time, allowing
operational efficiency to be monitored.
Further work will refine the method
and apply it to estimates of global
shipping emissions.
More generally, any useful tool for

quantifying shipping emissions should fulfil
a set of criteria to give a clear picture of
shippings contribution to annual emissions.
Propulsion accounts for the bulk of energy
used and CO2 produced by ships. Thus,
fuel consumption can be derived from
individual ship movements. This in turn
can be used for estimating fuel combusted
from a large proportion of the worlds
For more detail see: Traut, M., Monitoring

shipping emissions via AIS data? Certainly,
Low Carbon Shipping Conference 2013.
Ship emission estimates also have an

important role to play in supply chain
accounting, although this requires an
altogether different approach. Instead of
methods that can monitor and aggregate
shipping emissions, lifecycle accounting
involves estimates for the fuel consumed
per tonne-km. Existing tools tend to
provide only very generalised estimates,
often for just three ship types, each of a
typical size. In reality, the CO2 emissions
associated with shipping freight can vary
significantly depending on a range of
circumstances, such as ship size, type,
speed, loading and so on.
There is a huge variety in the CO2
intensity of different ship types and
sizes. Moreover, although shipping is the
least carbon-intensive mode of freight
transport, the vast distances involved
mean that choosing an emission factor
that is too low can lead to a significant
underestimate of the supply chain
emissions associated with particular
goods. While vessel type depends on
the commodity being shipped, vessel
size is often more difficult to ascertain.
By correlating emission data with ship
type, research within High Seas highlights
the non-linear relationship between ship
Figure 4: Main engine (ME) fuel

consumption estimated by a new AIS
model, compared with the fuel
consumption as recorded in sample
vessels noon reports. (Noon reports:
Reederei Buss. AIS data: JAKOTA Cruise
Systems and LuxSpace Sarl).
size and CO2 emissions (Figure 5). The

specific shape of this curve is different for
different ship types but for most types
the CO2 emissions intensity is relatively
high for small ships, decreasing rapidly, to
a point beyond which an increase in ship
size results in only a marginal decrease
in CO2 intensity (measured in CO2 per
tonne-km).
using most existing tools. For example,

manufactured products are more likely
to be transported on a container vessel
and knowledge of where the material is
sourced can indicate a suitable
size range.
Data analysis by the project team

demonstrated that it is very difficult to
presume a reasonable average ship
CO2 intensity estimate. There are two
reasons for this. Firstly, not all ships
have a good fit with the expected CO2
intensity vs size relationship. Secondly,
through this non-linear relationship it
is not possible to identify if a ship is
travelling at full capacity.
High Seas analysis suggests that
someone using carbon accounting tools
should be directed by the accounting
software towards emission data with
more highly resolved granularity and
specificity. Knowledge of the specific
market within which trade takes place
may provide enough information for
an informed choice to be made about
both ship type and size, offering a
better estimate than available from
For more detail see: Walsh & Bows,

Size Matters: Exploring the importance
of vessel characteristics to inform
estimates of shipping emissions,
Applied Energy 98, 128-137, 2012.
Apportioning emissions
Even more subjective than the processes
of estimating shipping emissions
and supply chain accounting is the
debate around how to apportion the
responsibility for international shipping
emissions to nations or regions.
If greenhouse gas targets are to be
meaningful at a sub-global scale, all
sectors must be accounted for.
Supply chain accounting
Figure 3: Track of a vessel reconstructed

from both terrestrial and satellite AIS
data over the course of the year 2012.
Data: LuxSpace Sarl. (satellite) and
JAKOTA Cruise Systems (terrestrial).
Carbon intensity (g CO2/tonne-km)
Ship size in deadweight tonnes
Figure 5: Illustration of how CO2 intensity of different ship types becomes

saturated as size increases.
Nonetheless, the legacy of the Kyoto

Protocol excludes emissions produced
within international waters (and airspace)
from national targets, which poses a
significant challenge for mitigating
emissions. Essentially, most nations
and regions rely on the IMO to deliver
appropriate mitigation policies rather
than bringing shipping in line with their
own national (or regional in the case of
the EU) carbon-reduction efforts. And the
debate at IMO meetings has been moving
very slowly.
One aspect hampering progress through
the IMO is the delay in agreeing a global
carbon cap within the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) negotiating process.
Moreover, the UNFCCCs framing
of Common but Differentiated
Responsibility (CBDR) is a significant
challenge for the shipping sector, which
operates under No More Favourable
Treatment a maritime principle to
ensure shipping standards apply equally
to all nations. Therefore, while some
nations notably China and India
advocate consideration of different
treatment for emerging economies in
mitigating shipping emissions, overall
10
Most nations rely on the IMO to deliver mitigation

policies, but progress is slow.
there remains strong support from many

IMO member states for policies aimed at
all nations.
Dissatisfied with the slow progress to
mitigate shipping emissions through the
IMO, the EU considered implementing
its own sub-global policies, and in 2013
announced an EU-wide legal framework
for collecting and publishing verified
annual CO2 data from all large ships (over
5,000 gross tonnes) that use EU ports,
irrespective of where ships are registered.
The rules are proposed to apply from
1 January 2018. The industry had feared
shipping would be included in the EUs
Trading Scheme, but at present, this
looks unlikely.
Nationally, the UK Government has
been debating how to address CO2
from shipping. For instance, the Climate
Change Act notes that by the end of
2012, international shipping (and aviation)
CO2 should be included in the 2050
target or else justification to Parliament
will be required. During 2012, the UKs
Committee on Climate Change (CCC)
advised that these emissions should
be included in the 2050 target and in
its short-term carbon budgets. This
would lead to shipping being monitored
and the UK would be making unilateral

adjustment to its national carbon budgets
to account for its share of international
shipping CO2.
However, following a decision by the EU
to suspend the full inclusion of aviation
within its emissions trading scheme,
the CCC reneged on their advice.
Subsequently, the UK Government took
the decision in 2012 to exclude these
international emissions from the budgets
and 2050 target, deferring a decision
until agreement of a fifth carbon budget
in 2015.
For more detail see: Bows et al, Aviation
and shipping privileged again? UK
delays decision to act on emissions,
Tyndall Briefing Note 47, 2012.
Conducting research while these debates
at global, EU and UK scales were
ongoing, the High Seas project team
argued that the urgency and scale of
addressing climate change, as well as
the shipping systems complex nature,
required a broad suite of bottom-up
measures targeted at regions, nations and
organisations to complement global topdown measures implemented through the
IMO (for instance the Energy Efficiency
For instance, port states (coastal

nations) can influence the amount,
source and destination of freight
imported and exported as well as the
energy efficiency of ships within national
waters and at national ports, which
could lead to more efficient technologies
and operational practices being
developed. Nations could indirectly
influence technological innovation too
if sub-global polices are adopted across
multiple nations.
However, one of the main stumbling
blocks cited for developing sub-global
mitigation polices for the shipping sector
is the perceived difficulty with their
implementation. In order to allocate
responsibility for an appropriate share of
global international shipping emissions,
it is assumed a method of apportioning
emissions to nations is required.
In conducting an in-depth analysis
of the practical and philosophical
considerations surrounding emission
apportionment, many complications

were identified during High Seas.
Firstly, there is a wide range of
apportionment regimes available that
lead to substantial variation in emission
estimates. Moreover, with high data
cost and the absence of transparent
fuel consumption and freight data, all
regimes that estimate emissions from
the bottom up have limited sensitivity,
rendering them obsolete for monitoring
purposes. Simplified top-down regimes
do exist, but, as proxies, they do not
offer any monitoring of mitigation policy
success over time. This is because they
do not measure anything directly. Thus,
the aspects of the shipping system
over which national or sub-global
policy may have influence are currently
not sufficiently captured even by the
extensive range of existing regimes.
options. Policymakers and organisations

should instead consider: the influence
they may have over aspects of the
shipping system; the implications of
measures that could be employed to
control emissions; and, how success
could be monitored.
For more detail see: Gilbert & Bows,
Exploring the scope for complementary
sub-global policy to mitigate CO
from shipping, Energy Policy, 50,
613-622, 2012.
Gilbert, Bows & Starkey, Shipping and
climate change: scope for unilateral
action, Tyndall Centre Policy Report.
It is clear that complications surrounding

apportionment have stalled the
debate. But, more importantly, it has
also postponed any consideration of
sub-global polices and indicators that
can be activated without the need
for apportionment. Research within
High Seas makes a case for putting
the apportionment debate aside in the
short-term to open out the full span of
Design Index). The research highlighted

that several aspects of the shipping
system are more directly influenced at a
national rather than global scale, offering
opportunities that are difficult to exploit
through conventional IMO channels.
11
Figure 6: Screenshot of the ASK-C scenario tool
Modelling future emissions

To explore what options may be
available to decarbonise the shipping
sector from a UK perspective, a new
scenario tool has been developed
within High Seas. It can calculate the
emissions that result from scenarios
of future shipping activity associated
with UK imports, including choices
over technologies, operations and the
demand for trade. The timeframe of
the scenario model called ASK-C (see
Figure 6) is from 2006 to 2050.
The physical quantity of material
transported is split into 19 categories.
Future trade can be projected by
specifying an annual growth rate,
while a specific energy-focused
module has been developed to allow
the user to choose one of the DECC
energy scenarios, which will have a
significant impact on the future trade
of fossil fuel (see Shifting Demand,
page 17). Changes in trading distances
are reflected by specifying an annual
change in the baseline transport
distance or by allocating changes in
traded quantities to a specific source.
These particular choices allow transport
work (in terms of tonne-km) to be
estimated for a specific year.
12
Each commodity category is allocated

an appropriate ship type. Given the
non-linear relationship between ship
size and emissions (Figure 5), the model
allows the user to choose either a single
ship size per ship type or alternatively
transport work can be allocated to
a range of sizes. For each ship type,
a choice of vessel characteristics is
used to generate energy consumption
estimates per unit of transport work
(kWh/tonne-km). These estimates
can be further modified to reflect the
presence of technologies that reduce
energy consumption including the use
of renewable propulsion, as well as
operational changes. Both retrofit and
new-build technologies can be included,
with retrofit rates and the penetration
of new build ships taken into account.
The specific combination of technologies
chosen gives an amount of energy
required for the shipping of imports
into the UK that needs to be satisfied
by some form of marine fuel. For each
type of ship, a choice of engine type,
fuel type, and bio-derived fuel content
generates a CO2 emission factor.
This, in conjunction with the transport
work projections allows absolute CO2
emissions to be estimated. Taking this
one stage further, cumulative emissions

can be calculated by considering how
the shipping system will make the
transition between the baseline year to
a radically different one in 2050.
ASK-C captures the pattern of UK
imports, which at present includes a
large proportion of trade within the
EU. The trade of energy commodities
figures prominently in the UKs demand
for shipped imports, contributing to
approximately half of all transport
work in the base year (2006).
For more detail see: Walsh et
al., A comparison of alternative
decarbonisation scenarios for UK
shipping, Low Carbon Shipping
Conference, 2013.
OPTIONS FOR
DECARBONISING
SHIPPING:
Industry insight:
We need a shift in how the industry is
financed.at the moment there is a lot
of interest in green technologies but
you have to persuade the banks to give
you the money.
(Technology developer, interview)
Armed with tools to quantify the CO2

emissions associated with shipping
activity, and an in-depth understanding
of the current shipping system, the High
Seas researchers articulated a suite of
low-carbon shipping scenarios or visions
of the future. The intention from the
outset was to consider the full system,
including technological, operational and
demand-side aspects. This approach
builds on similar scenario exercises
conducted within Tyndall Manchester
(Figure 7), where methodologies have
been developed that acknowledge that
all these aspects can interact with and
influence each other.
Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts,
but tools to explore a range of plausible
futures. The particular type of scenario
used within High Seas is known as
backcasting. In backcasting, the process
begins by setting a strategic objective
in this case a significant cut in the CO2
emissions associated with shipped UK
imports. All scenarios are designed to
meet this objective, but each scenario
will include different choices regarding
technological development, rates of
change, shifts in the demand for products
and where they are sourced from, as well
as differences in operational practices.
14
The scenarios parameters are not only

quantified in terms of energy consumption
and emissions using the ASK-C tool, but
are also informed by expert stakeholders
through workshops and interviews.
This ensures that the scenarios, while
optimistic in terms of CO2, will be plausible
and of relevance to industry and policy
decision makers.
While a considerable amount of research
around operational change was available
to draw upon in the literature, detail on
how the wide variety of technological
interventions could impact on ships was
less readily available and few demandside assessments pay attention to the
impending shift in the trade of fossil fuel
resources. To address this, the High Seas
team delivered new analysis with regard
to both these key aspects. These are
explained over the following 14 pages.
Technology change
Technology offers huge potential for
decarbonising the shipping sector, even
in the short- to medium-term. But, if the
sector is to step up to the decarbonisation
challenge, then the scale of change
offered by the technologies and any
co-benefits or trade-offs necessary needs
Figure 7: Decarbonising the UK

publication containing Tyndalls first
energy system scenarios.
Figure 8: The High Seas Projects

roadmapping report
Figure 9: Extract from the High Seas

Projects roadmapping report
to be examined in detail. Research within

High Seas highlights that it is technically
feasible to significantly decarbonise both
new builds and retrofits. However, many
technologies that could be drawn upon are
under-researched, not fully commercialised
or considered to be too niche to warrant
consideration or investment at an
appropriate scale.
however, an exhaustive list as there will

likely be additional barriers associated with
economics, markets, governance and
social acceptability.
For a copy of the workshop report visit

www.mace.manchester.ac.uk
5. Uncertainty surrounding performance

and functionality of renewable
forms of propulsion in real-life weather
conditions supports a need for
full-scale demonstration.
Perhaps surprisingly, results from

the workshop demonstrate that the
combination of the technology measures
for the 2050 visions are able to deliver
considerable (>90%) cuts in CO2 from
todays levels for both retrofitted and
new-build ships.
However, several barriers stand in the
way of realising such futures. Ways of
overcoming barriers to technology change
identified in the workshop are presented
in the following eight points; this is not,
2. When considering alternative fuels,

there needs to be a reliable supply to
match demand, as well as infrastructure
capable of production, distribution
and storage.
3. For widespread adoption of new
fuels, economies of scale need to
be enhanced, as many fuels are yet to
be commercialised.
4. With a lifespan of 30-40 years, vessels
entering operation today are likely to
be in service near to 2050. This
6. Practical challenges in installing,

deploying and operating renewable
technologies require a systemic
analysis for each new technology.
7.

Pursuing co-benefits of addressing

CO2 and SOx emissions would likely
reduce the impacts of infrastructure
lock-in, as well as reducing potential
lock-out of future low carbon fuels
(see Sector-specific challenges, page 6).
8. The cumulative nature of CO2 emissions

means that implementing mitigation
measures in the short-term makes the
challenge easier in the long-term. While
potentially offering short-term CO2
mitigation, LNG can only ever be an
interim part of a more radical transition
towards a decarbonised sector.
15
During a technology road-mapping

stakeholder workshop in January 2013,
2050 visions for a range of radically
decarbonised vessels were articulated
(Figures 8 and 9). While the roadmaps
were essentially qualitative in nature,
information was translated into emissions
savings using the ASK-C model.
1. With its complex system of markets,

services and vessel types and a
wide range of technology measures
to match, the sector would benefit
from market- or service-specific
roadmaps, including tailored policy
instruments to support progress
towards high levels of decarbonisation in
the near-term.
highlights the importance of retrofit

options, but limited political will,
feasibility issues and financial
constraints need to be overcome.
Industry insight:
GIS data will help, as will getting more
information about what the weather
patterns actually are. Investing in that
technology route may be more effective,
using the existing ships more effectively.
(Technology developer, interview)
The technology roadmaps articulated

by the stakeholders suggest that the
technologies that are considered feasible
in the short-term (i.e. <10 years) and have
long-term viability are: Wind-assisted
propulsion (kites, sails and Flettner Rotors),
small-scale (1MW) fuel cells as well as a
partial penetration of biofuels.
Wind propulsion
So is there an opportunity for a wind
revolution for shipping? With shipping
facing the challenge of reducing its
dependence on fossil fuels and cutting
its CO2 , this renewable energy source,
freely available on the worlds oceans,
offers an attractive alternative. Shipping
has changed a great deal since the days
when it was entirely wind-powered.
Smaller crews on larger ships transport
more goods, often within a just-intime logistics system. Consequently,
the desirability for wind power
technologies, which are considered to
be slower or less reliable, has diminished
within commercial trade. Yet as just
one component of modern-day cargo
shipping, wind-assist technologies
could, when coupled with sophisticated
computer-controlled systems,
constitute a complementary source
of propulsion. While various concepts
16
do exist already, the High Seas project

identified knowledge gaps in relation to
performance, feasibility and cost.
In order to assess the carbon abatement
potential of wind power, numerical
models of wind power technologies were
linked with wind data along international
trade routes. In particular, performance
models of a Flettner Rotor and a kite
were analysed along five shipping
international trade routes representing
various trades. Results revealed that
the average power contribution of the
modelled towing kite along the routes
considered ranged from 127kW to 461kW,
while a single Flettner rotors power
ranged from 193kW to 373kW.
The power contribution from the towing
kite is more volatile, both over time and
geographic location, than that from a
Flettner rotor. Furthermore, the power
is lower than the power that could be
harnessed from two or more Flettner
rotors. Nevertheless, one rotor has the
advantage of taking up very little deck
space and could feasibly be retrofitted
onto existing vessels. The analysis
conducted underlines the hypothesis that
the wind power contribution from a kite
or Flettner rotor is too low and variable
for the industry to consider wind as the
A big switch to renewables is an

important element of UK energy
system decarbonisation
Will there be a wind revolution in shipping? (Photo US Navy)
sole power source for cargo. Nevertheless,

wind power could make a significant
contribution when vessels operate in
hybrid mode and even provide a major
share of required propulsive power under
some conditions.
by High Seas shows that if a cut in energy

demand and a big switch to renewables are
important elements of UK energy system
decarbonisation, then the need for imported
fossil fuels will fall.
For more detail see: Traut et al.,

Propulsive power contribution of a
kite and a Flettner rotor on selected
shipping routes, Applied Energy, 113,
362-372, 2014.
Shifting demand
While developing technologies fit for
purpose is an essential element of the
low-carbon transition, demand for
shipping services and how it may shift in
the future should also be considered.
The UKs current energy supply relies
heavily on shipped imports of fossil fuels,
yet as the energy system decarbonises,
UK shipping patterns will alter. Analysis
As a knock-on impact, shipping CO2

emissions arising from energy imports
could decrease by up to 80%, if current
trading patterns are maintained. Oil and oil
products used in refineries and as transport
fuels currently comprise around one third
of UK shipped imports (by weight) and are
responsible for the highest share of shipping
CO2 emissions of all imported fuels.
Decarbonisation of the transport sector
will significantly reduce demand for oil
products. As a result, in a low carbon future,
it is envisioned that biofuels and solid
biomass become increasingly important,
with emerging markets requiring new or
retro-fitted ships travelling between Europe
and centres of production in America
and Africa.
The future role of coal in the UK energy
system is contingent on the successful
deployment of carbon capture and storage
(CCS), but even if CCS is successfully
deployed, the demand for the shipping of
coal will likely be lower in the future, leading
to a cut in coals contribution to
Add these changes in demand to

the potential shifts in operations and
technology, and near-term step-change
cuts in CO2 start to appear feasible. The full
impact of decarbonisation may also have a
spillover influence on other sectors facing
similar challenges.
Of course, the penetration of technical
and operational change will be driven by
national and global policy, the application
of energy efficiency-focused initiatives
such as the EEDI and SEEMP, as well as
the anticipated increase and variability
in fuel price. Nevertheless, the shipping
sector currently faces less pressure to
decarbonise than sectors within the EU ETS
or UK climate change targets. Should the
policy framework strengthen, step-change
decarbonisation could materialise.
For more detail see: Mander et al.,
Decarbonising the UK energy system and
the implications for UK shipping, Carbon
Management, 3, 601-614, 2012.
17
Using this method, the analysis outlines

steps towards grasping the emission
reduction opportunities presented
by wind power, both as a technology
providing a step change in emissions
and as part of a wider transition to a
decarbonised shipping sector.
shipping CO2. The distance that fuels travel

is a further crucial factor in determining
future emissions. It is clear from the analysis
that the greatest absolute reductions in
shipping CO2 emissions are achieved when
there is a reduction in both fuel and the
distance travelled.
Figure 10: Baseline and scenario levels of

CO2 emissions in 2010, 2030 and 2050.

imported tonnage into the UK in 2010,
2030 and 2050.
DECARBONISATION
SCENARIOS:
Industry insight:
Pooling ships is key to maximising the
efficiency of operation and in those
situations I think you can make quite a
lot of savings in fuel per tonne carried as
you can minimise the time in ballast.
(Technology body, interview)
Drawing together insights from across

the team as well as through a dedicated
engagement process with industry and
policy shipping stakeholders, three future
scenarios were developed. All three focus
on potential changes affecting the
imports of goods to the UK under a
strict decarbonisation agenda, capturing
a range of decarbonised visions of
the shipping system. Each scenario
is described by a narrative as well as
quantitative indicators represented in
graphical form. Prior to presenting the
scenarios individually, selected headline
parameters are highlighted here first.
Scenario summary
Each scenario is given a neutral name
capturing a sense of its overall theme.
They are: Big World (S1), Full Steam
Ahead (S2) and Small Ships Short Trips
(S3). Big World paints the picture of a
thriving globalised shipping industry
where ship size continues to grow.
Full Steam Ahead contrasts with Big
World to highlight a different future
where technology in the form of nuclear
power has offered an alternative lowcarbon route for the sector, allowing high
speeds to be maintained despite the
decarbonisation agenda.
18
Figure 12: Baseline and scenario levels

of transport work associated with UK
imports in 2010, 2030 and 2050.

emissions intensity per freight tonne-km
in 2010, 2030 and 2050.

average transport distance in 2010, 2030
and 2050.
Finally, Small Ships Short Trips considers

a future where the port infrastructure
within densely populated nations like
the UK presents a barrier to ever larger
container vessels, driving a need for
smaller feeder ships able to more readily
take advantage of the UKs future leading
renewables industries.
retrofit technologies penetrating the

fleet; modifications to operations
including slow steaming.
information on the specific technology

penetration required for the level of CO2
reduction attained.
The primary driver for the reduction in

overall tonnage is the very significant
change experienced by the UKs own
energy system, which as a result of
decarbonisation, no longer requires the
very high levels of fossil fuel imports by
2050 (see Mander et al., 2012).
Parameters that vary across the
scenarios include: levels and types of
goods traded; trading partners - which
in turn lead to a change in the average
distance travelled by tonne of good
imported; the range of new build and
This means that measures to improve

energy efficiency and the level of CO2
produced by the fuel mix are less
demanding than they are in the other
two scenarios. Note that the greatest
change from the baseline in terms of
CO2 intensity is a reduction from over
13 g CO2 per tonne-km to just over 2 g
CO2 per tonne-km within the Big World
scenario (S1) (Figure 13).
The scenarios differ in almost every way

apart from the fact that all achieved
significant decarbonisation between
2010 and 2050 under constrained
carbon budgets (Figure 10) and
capture a material fall in the overall
tonnes imported into the UK (Figure 11)
although tonne-kms did not fall in all
cases (Figure 12).
As a result, some scenarios achieve

decarbonisation with more of an
emphasis on the demand-side than
others. For instance, in Small Ships
Short Trips (S3) the emissions intensity
(CO2 per tonne km) is higher than in the
other scenarios, but the overall number
of tonne-km travelled is much lower
(Figures 12 and 13).
This is necessary to provide enough

carbon space for the growth in distance
travelled per tonne rising from just
under four thousand km per tonne to
just under seven thousand (Figure 14).
The next section describes the
scenarios in more detail including
19
BIG
WORLD
(S1)
FULL
SPEED AHEAD
(S2)
WHERE THE
WIND BLOWS
(S3)
Context out to 2050

Global
Backdrop
UK Energy
System
Globalisation continues apace.
UK energy system decarbonised in

line with the DECC
high CCS scenario.
Security becomes a more pressing

concern with increasing risks of piracy
at known conflict points.
UK energy system decarbonised in

line with the DECC Markal scenario;
Bio-fuels used for aviation and for
domestic energy provision.
Western economies focus

on regional.
High penetration of renewable

technologies as the UK
decarbonises according to DECC
high renewable, high efficiency
scenario. No coal imports;
significant imports of bio-derived
energy; 90% reduction in LNG
imports; while oil imports 50% of
2010 levels. (inc domestic trade).
UK Shipping
UK Shipping
Market
UK Demand for
Imported Goods
Drivers for
Decarbonisation
of the
Shipping Sector
UK Imports
Trading
Partners
Freight Work
20
Decline in deep sea

trade routes.
Increased importance
of deep sea trade.
Both deep and short

sea shipping important.
Continuing increases in demand for

manufactured goods
Equivalent to base year for

non-energy commodities.
Marginal increase in demand for

Regulation and competition to

incentivise fuel efficiency gains.
Increase in costs of
marine fuel.
Decline in deep sea

trade routes.
40% reduction in wet and

dry bulk imports (2010) as a
consequence of energy scenario.
Doubling of quantity
of containerised goods.
Extension of trade routes

to encompass new markets;
increased trade with
Central and South America, the
Caribbean, North East Asia
and India; reduced trade with
Europe and Africa.
60% increase on 2010 levels;

45% freight work arising from
shipping of containers increased
from 28%.
26% reduction in overall tonnage

relative to 2010.10%
increase in demand for
15% reduction in overall

tonnage relative to
2010. 27% increase in
non-energy goods, mostly
associated with RoRo and
containerised trade.
Increased trade with America

for certain commodities but
no drastic change in trading
partners. Some routes are
longer as a precaution
against piracy.
Regionalisation results in
dominance of short sea
shipping; increased trade
within the EU.
Negligible change relative

to 2010.
64% reduction relative to

2010 levels.
BIG
WORLD
(S1)
FULL
SPEED AHEAD
(S2)
WHERE THE
WIND BLOWS
(S3)
Vessels in 2050
Size of Vessels
Ship Speed
Load Factors
Fleet Replacement
New Build
Technology
Retrofit
Technologies
Container ships approximately 3

times current size; other ships
double in size.
Bulk and container ships size doubles

by 2050.
Ship size decreases by at least

50% for vessels > 5,000 dwt.
40% reduction for container vessels;

20% reduction for other vessels.
20% reduction for containerised vessels.
20% reduction for all vessels.
30% increased in utilisation of

container vessels.
Increased utilisation capacity of

container vessels post 2040 from
7 to 10 Tonnes/TEU.
No change.
90% turnover of fleet by 2050.
Container vessels - 10% reductions

in energy demand per tonne-km;
technology is not as important
when ships slow steam.
Other vessels - 30% energy
saving (propeller optimisation and
hull design).
Nuclear ships emerge 2030-2035.

Gradually penetrate fleet. Majority of
tankers and approximately 30% of
container and dry bulk fleet assumed to
be nuclear powered. Non nuclear new
builds assumed to be 30% more
energy efficient.
All ships assumed to benefit

from a suite of technologies
such as contra-rotating
propellers, refinement of hull
lines etc.
Approximately 11% reduction in energy

intensity for all container ships and
20% reduction for other ships.
Approximately 20 % reduction in
emission intensity applied to all
non - nuclear ships.
This is a compound value reflecting a

combination of technologies including
waste heat recovery, engine tuning,
fuel injection, improved rudder
propeller integration, etc.
As in Scenario 1 reflects overall impact

of multiple individual measures.
Large array of diverse technologies

such as hull coating, variable speed
pumps and fans, waste heat recovery,
engine tuning, fuel injection,
improved rudder efficiency
monitoring, hybrid energy systems,
etc. Rapid uptake of newtechnologies
as these come onboard.
Results in approximately 11 (dry bulk
-20% (container) reduction in energy
intensity of transport work.
Wind powered or wind assisted is

assumed to reduce energy demand by
approximately 10% across all vessels.

estimated to reduce energy demand
by approximately 10% across
non-nuclear vessels.

assumed to reduce energy demand
by approximately 10% across
all vessels.
Fuel
HFO with 10% biofuel (main engines

and boilers); MDO with 10% biofuel for
auxiliary engine.
HFO (main engines and boilers); MDO

with for auxiliary engine. 50%
bio-derived fuel for RoRo.
HFO with 20% biofuel (main engines

and boilers); MDO with 20%
biofuel for auxilliary engine. 50%
bio-derived fuel for ships
transporting bio-energy. All Auxiliary
boilers supplied by bio-fuel.
Operational
Measures
8% reduction in energy intensity for

containers and 14% reduction for
other ships. Reflects to a combination
of measures including weather routing,
optimised trim/draft, condition based
maintenance etc.
14% reduction in energy intensity

applied to all non-nuclear ships.
As in Scenario 1 reflects overall impact
of multiple individual measures.
As in Scenario 1 reflects overall

impact of multiple
individual measures. 14%
reduction in energy intensity
applied to half the fleet.
Emissions Estimates
2050
3.9MtCO2
2.58MtCO2
1.86MtCO2
Renewable
Propulsion
21
Figure 15: Levels of transport work

associated with UK imports in 2010, 2030
and 2050 in the S1 scenario.
BIG WORLD (S1):

Industry insight:
The slower ships go, the easier
it is for renewably powered
ships to compete
(NGO, interview)
The shipping sector has thrived within

an increasingly globalised world. Despite
volatility, energy prices have increased.
The realities of addressing climate change
have gained political acceptance with
the carbon emission space becoming
increasingly constrained. This has led to
some form of energy monitoring/carbon
accounting becoming prevalent along
established supply chains as a means of
identifying opportunities for cost savings
(assuming carbon pricing is in operation).
Within the shipping sector the impact of
globalisation, competition and increasing
costs is manifested in the emergence of
economies of scale in terms of ship size,
as well as a reduction in speed.
use of biomass with CCS (BECCS) and the

use of gas for electricity generation results
in significant imports of both these fuels,
though quantities of gas imports are lower
than in 2010. The use of BECCS enables the
continued use of fossil fuels for transport.
Fossil fuel imports reduce by 58% in terms
of tonnes and by 16% in terms of tonnekm. By 2050 the energy demand of UK
shipping has reduced by 70% compared
with 2010 (Figure 17). Within the wider
system, the quantity of energy imports
has reduced by 50% relative to 2010, while
the associated transport work demand is
equivalent to 2010 levels.
UK energy context
Material efficiency has become a central

component of management systems
with the waste hierarchy being adhered
to as far as is feasible. However within
a globalised, technologically literate
world there remains a strong demand for
manufactured consumer goods (such as
electronics or clothing) with over double
the quantities of containerised goods
imported by 2050. Within the UK, there is
large-scale region-centric production that
has a focus on repair and reuse. In general
terms, most goods are transported further
than at present, particularly dry bulk,
In this scenario, carbon capture and

storage technologies have been
commercially deployed across the
electricity generating sector and for the
sequestration of industrial emissions
of CO2.
The overall generation mix for electricity
is a balanced mix of renewable, CCS and
nuclear power. Heating is provided by heat
pumps and networked infrastructure such
as CHP and district heating. Widespread
22
UK consumption
Figure 16: Levels of annual CO2 emissions

Figure 17: Baseline and scenario primary

energy supplied by fuel and measures used
to mitigate CO2 emissions through energy
demand-side savings in the S1 scenario.
Figure 18: Annual and cumulative CO2

emissions from the baseline year out to
2050 in the S1 scenario.
liquid gas and containerised freight. The

demand for traded dry bulk (such as ores)
remains at current levels but due to large
cuts in the trade in energy commodities,
the absolute quantity of imported goods
is approximately 13% less than 2010 levels
(Figure 11). Overall transport work has
increased by 66% (Figure 15), while the
average distance traded has increased
by 83%.
changes in the regulatory environment.

This has led to a wider uptake of new
technologies with efficiency measures
becoming commonplace. Following the
EUs lead, ships are required to measure
fuel efficiency/emissions in a standardised
and transparent manner. Regular audits
are used to ensure compliance with
regional/port based standards with
records requested on a mandatory basis
when ships are sold.
increase in ship size, particularly for

container vessels. Container vessels
arriving in the UK are approximately
three times the size of the current
average and there is 30% more
material inside the containers.
Shipping technology
Shipping operations
Advances in logistical infrastructures
(such as satellites) and related services
allow for more extensive, interconnected
and adaptable supply chains. The
geographic range of AIS systems has
transformed the logistical landscape.
The sharing of information along
the supply chain coupled with the
ubiquitous provision of weather routing
services and dedicated berthing has
supported slow steaming in becoming
the norm, enshrined within slow
steaming clauses in time and voyage
charters. By 2050 container vessels
travel at 40% of the speed of current
ships, while other ships are 20% slower.
This is accompanied by a consistent
Ship removal rates are comparable to

current levels but the delivery rate (in
terms of existing capacity) is higher as
the demand for more efficient new builds
is driven by a buoyant shipping sector.
Based on assumed replacement rates,
efficient new builds enter the system in
2020, fully penetrating the fleet by 2050.
Through new build technologies alone,
bulk ships entering the market in 2035 are
30% more energy efficient than current
vessels, whereas containers are 10% more
efficient, with operational changes more
important in the containerised sector. In
addition to new build technologies, the
retrofit of vessels has become routine
with dry dock schedules accommodating
the widespread inclusion of retrofit and
renewable technologies, supported by
This increase in size is assumed to

offset the need for additional
ships while maintaining delivery
rates. However, the relative size of
marine engines is kept as safety is
paramount for such large vessels and
underpowered engines are considered
hazardous. By 2050, engines are
capable of operating a variety of load
profiles without a drastic reduction in
fuel efficiency.
23

FULL STEAM
AHEAD (S2):
Industry insight:
.bunker fuel consumption might
have fallen even though the fleet has
grown dramatically in the last few years,
which is not something you would have
predicted, but high fuel costs and low
freight costs have caused that
to happen..
(Industry analyst, interview)
After two decades of a stagnating global

economy, political instability and tensions
between trading regions, the 2030s
onwards are characterised by greater
co-operation and a determination to
address global threats such as climate
change. This co-operation has seen the
rapid deployment of new technology
initially developed for land-based power
applications, such as small modular
nuclear reactors, into the marine sector.
This technological revolution has been
driven in part by high fuel prices, but
also as a means of facilitating the rapid
transport of goods between nations, in
contrast to the previous decades of slow
steaming. By 2050, shipping energy
demand has reduced by 40%.
UK energy context
The UK energy system uses a mix of
fuels, with coal and nuclear delivering
the majority of UK electricity and
renewables having also increased
significantly in share. Heating demand
has been shifted onto electricity so
gas is no longer used for heating in
buildings, but instead meets the backup requirements of an electricity grid
with a high penetration of wind and
marine energy. A diverse range of fuels
24
power transport; batteries, biomass-to

liquids and hydrogen-fuelled vehicles all
play a role. The UK imports coal and oil
products, though at significantly reduced
levels compared to 2006, while gas is
no longer imported by sea. Imports of
bio-derived fuels have risen considerably
compared with 2006, with fuel imports
reducing by 65% in terms of tonnes and
by 45% in terms of tonne-km.
UK consumption
By 2050, a vibrant global economy
supports balanced trade between all
regions. Instability and uncertainty prior
to 2030 caused a drop in container
trade prior to 2030, and while trade has
boomed post-2030, UK containerised
imports in 2050 are the same as in 2010.
A degree of repatriation of activities
back to the UK, particularly an increase
in indigenous food production over
a four-decade timeframe, results in a
reduction in agri-bulk imports. There is a
diversification of energy suppliers, with
increasing imports from North America
and Canada, at the expense of Middle
Eastern nations.
By 2050 overall tonne-km has reduced by
18% relative to 2006, (Figure 19) traded
Figure 20: Levels of annual CO2 emissions



tonnage decreased by 38% and average

distance traded decreased by 30%.
decommissioning infrastructure that

has allowed nuclear marine technology
to move out of military niches. Designs
are specified to ensure the integral
safety of reactors, both from the
perspective of safeguarding against
accidents, but also to reduce the risk
of piracy and the use of vessels as
weapons by terrorists. Nuclear isnt the
only new development, a diverse range
of technologies are now used onboard
ships depending on market and
application, with even conventionally
fuelled vessels benefiting from wind
assistance where appropriate. Biofuels
are not used extensively in the marine
sector with the exception of roll-on/
roll-off ferries (ro-ro) where biofuels
supply 50% of the fuel combusted to
meet EU carbon regulations.
the owners of these expensive vessels.

Onward shipping of goods is via a
network of smaller feeder vessels. As the
global economy rises out of recession
and operators look to maximise profits
by increasing ship speed, nuclearpowered ships are able to meet this
operational requirement without the
carbon emissions of fossil-fuelled vessels.
High ship speeds facilitate a continuation
of just-in-time logistics. Ship size has
increased by an average of 2% each year,
resulting in ships that are two and a half
times bigger compared to ships docking
in 2006. The exception is the fleet of
product tankers delivering liquid biofuels
that have grown at 5% each year. Security
is important for specific trade routes, and
some routes (such as the Suez route)
are avoided to reduce the risk of nuclear
vessels falling into the wrong hands.
After an initial slow uptake of measures

to reduce the climate change impact
of shipping, the sector has been
able to benefit from the technology
developments that have taken place in
other sectors, particularly for onshore
power and transport applications.
The early involvement of far-sighted
technology companies in research
consortia, focusing on land power
applications, allowed these technology
firms to be early movers in marine
applications in the late 2020s, as the
shipping industry sought to maintain its
competiveness as the price of marine
fuel continued to rise. The development
of small modular reactors for marine
applications has been facilitated by the
deployment of the technology on land,
including the introduction of regulation
and the addressing of safety concerns.
Shipping and nuclear regulators
have worked together to develop
ownership and finance models,
ship classification codes and the
supporting manufacturing, repair and
Shipping operations
Shipping technology
Nuclear vessels primarily move high value

cargo on container ships and product
tankers, with a significantly smaller
number of dry bulkers moving less
valuable cargo. Dedicated nuclear ports
with advanced logistics systems ensure
that cargoes are loaded and unloaded
as swiftly as possible, to facilitate the
rapid turnaround of vessels required by
25

SMALL SHIPS
SHORT TRIPS (S3):
Industry insight:
there are some things
happening which may act to reduce
long haul trade, like shale gas in the
USand more local production
(Trade body, interview)
Global shipping is impacted by carbon

constraints and sulphur standards,
strictly enforced at an EU level but
influential globally. The IMO continues
to incentivise incremental shifts towards
low carbon technology, but has not
significantly changed its position since
the 2010s. The trend towards greater
globalisation, supporting a global shift
towards larger container vessels stalled in
the 2010s as Western nations struggled
to improve existing land-side and portside infrastructure to accommodate
the throughput from increasingly large
container ships.
Thus, by 2050, container ships are no bigger
than the average in 2010, with a prevalence
for somewhat smaller ships where shortsea shipping dominates. This has opened
up opportunities for renewable propulsive
power, which is more effective in smaller
vessels, as well as fuel cells and batteries
that are viable over short distances.
UK energy context
Widespread deployment of low cost
renewable electricity generating
technologies, and innovations in energy
storage technologies, have resulted in a
strongly renewable electricity grid with
26
nuclear and coal- and gas-fuelled CCS

plants providing baseload capacity. There
have been high levels of demand reduction
across the whole economy and the
deployment of CCS to capture industrial
emissions to further reduce the carbon
impact of a steadily growing industrial
sector. All domestic heating is electrified,
and cars and buses powered either by
batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. The UK
has become more energy independent, with
little in the way of gas, coal and biomass
imports. In terms of energy trade, the
tonnage and transport work associated with
fossil fuel imports are reduced by 64% and
by 83% respectively.
UK consumption
Although there has been a step-change in
shipping technology for smaller ships, this is
not mirrored globally. Thus for goods traded
over longer distances in large container
ships, consumption levels have fallen or are
substituted by markets closer to the UK in
order to keep within strict carbon limits.
Trade of ores with South America and
Australia declines as does containerised
trade with Asia; trade with north Africa,
Europe and Baltic states increases,
particularly immediate materials carried on
ro-ro. By 2050, the UK re-manufacturers


more for its own consumption (high up the

waste hierarchy), with a higher reuse/more
circular economy than in 2013, reductions
in imports of final products, and growth
in material servicing. Waste is treated as
a valuable commodity. Overall tonne-km
associated with UK imports have reduced by
70%. Bulk exports of foods for rising global
demand, such as wheat, have risen while
the imports of processed, packaged and
manufactured goods remains EU-dominated.
Relative to 2006, total tonne-kms have
reduced by 70%, total tonnes by 27% and
average distance traded by 61%.
whereby routine inspections allowed for new

equipment to be added incrementally. Many
new ships used for short-sea shipping within
EU waters are designed with integrated
renewables. For long-haul journeys, larger
ships primarily switch to more expensive
biofuel as they approach EU waters, while
ships for which this is not possible could
pay to be pulled through national waters
by renewably powered tugs. A very high
proportion of ships by 2050 have integrated
renewable technology and fuel cells and
batteries are more common given a rise in
short-sea shipping and subsequently shorter
journey times. Rates of new deliveries and
removal of old stock increased between
2010 and 2050 to deliver fleet-wide change.
congestion and improving energy efficiency.

The industry is more resilient than in the
2010s, when it relied on a small number
of larger container ports. Supporting
logistics infrastructure linking ports to
rail/waterways, coupled with a reduction
in imports of manufactured goods has
reduced dramatically containerised freight
on roads.
Shipping technology
Although shipping technology has
developed incrementally at a global scale,
with implementation of improvements such
as the widespread use of microbubbles to
reduce drag, emergence of new hull designs
etc, more radical change has been seen in
UK and EU waters, with duel-fuel hybrid
engines, Flettner rotors and solar panels
(particularly for tankers) as well as kites and
sails (particularly for dry bulk) commonplace.
Strict efficiency standards at ports
encourage only the most fuel efficient or
low-carbon ships to dock. Retrofitting
renewable technologies became widespread
from 2015 onwards through a process
Shipping operations:
Logistics has undergone a step-change
in technology, with real-time information
systems continually updating operators
regarding timing for offloading. New
systems facilitate inland ports and
multi-modal shifts onto the advanced
freight rail and inland waterway
infrastructure around the UK. Through
explicit efforts to develop regional port
infrastructure nationwide, coupled with
advanced logistics systems, the UK has cut
port waiting times to a minimum, lowering
Slow steaming is common and enforced

around the waters surrounding the UK
and EU. This allows further benefits from
renewables, the development of which
has been encouraged by the inclusion of
shipping within the EUs emissions trading
scheme, which has imposed a high carbon
price within local waters. The distributed
network of smaller ports has resulted in
a further skew towards more small ships
serving the UK, as well as a revival in
the ship building industry for renewable
propulsion powered ships, with supporting
industries manufacturing renewable
technologies also buoyant.
Due to the prominence of short-sea
shipping, average ship size declines from
2020 by 0.5% to 1% annually up to 2040.
This, coupled with the UKs new port
systems has reinvigorated the UKs pride
in shipping.
27
Figure 24: Levels of annual CO2

emissions associated with UK imports in
2010, 2030 and 2050 in the S3 scenario.
CONCLUSIONS
FROM HIGH
SEAS:
Combining the insights from the
three scenarios presented in the
chapter Decarbonisation scenarios,
with the analysis and implications
drawn from the more focused
research summarised in the first two
chapters (Context and Measuring
ship emissions) the following
conclusions are drawn from this
EPSRC-funded High Seas project.
Need for a step-change

Quantifying the challenge for shipping
posed by climate change shows that
avoiding a 2C global temperature
rise requires a radical rethink of
the shipping system. The scale of
this change is beyond anything
yet countenanced in the current
mitigation debate. Emissions from
international shipping are expected to
grow indefinitely in coming decades
and be over 200%-300% higher by
2050. In contrast, if global shipping is
to make its fair and proportionate
contribution to avoiding 2C, emissions
need to be cut within the next 10 years
and continue to decline to at least 80%
of their 1990 baseline by 2050.
Intensity improvements need

to outstrip growth
Both technology and operations offer
huge scope for decarbonisation but
must more than offset emissions
that are driven by a rise in demand.
By considering and quantifying
emissions for the full shipping system,
meaningful decarbonisation pathways
can be articulated. In recent years, the
significant growth in containerised
transport has upheld the CO2 intensity
28
of shipping. Coupled with a rise in

demand, CO2 emissions are travelling in
the wrong direction.
Overturning these trends requires a full
appreciation of the existing system, as
well as the scope for change. Improving
the CO2 intensity of shipping will not be
sufficient for the industry to make its
fair and proportionate contribution
to avoiding 2C; trade routes, levels of
demand, storage and timing, all have
roles to play when seeking to avoid 2C.
Couple sulphur & CO2 targets

Measures implemented by the industry to
tackle other pollutants, such as sulphur
emissions, need to be integrated with
the climate change agenda. Recent
legislation to enforce a reduction in the
sulphur content of fuel used for ship
propulsion may incentivise the use of
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). LNG is
a fossil fuel, albeit with a lower CO2
intensity than heavy fuel oil for direct
combustion. If shipping is to decarbonise
in line with 2C, solutions that can tackle
both sulphur content and CO2 in unison
are desirable, thereby avoiding lock-in or
stranded assets. Wind-assist propulsion
is one option that offers scope for
addressing both.
Making data public and transparent is

highly desirable to support change. For
many aspects of emissions mitigation,
publicly available information is of crucial
importance and often it is lacking.
Currently, there is no mechanism in
place for monitoring shipping emissions
accurately over time. Improving fuel
consumption accounting could support
a range of stakeholders in their efforts
to mitigate emissions. For example, it
could assist policymakers when designing
regulations, help businesses when
trying to cut their fuel bills, or shippers
in driving progress as they make their
supply chains more energy efficient.
While significant abatement potential
is widely claimed by a range of new
technologies, the continued absence of
information on performance and cost will
undermine their uptake.
AIS for monitoring emissions

The advent of satellite-based Advanced
Information System (AIS) receivers
offers an opportunity for improving
the measurement accuracy of fuel
consumption for ships in international
waters. With their real-time, global
coverage of international shipping, High

Seas research demonstrates that this
new method can improve the accuracy
compared with more conventional
alternatives. Based on actual ship
movements, the method is sensitive to
emission reduction measures such as slow
steaming, estimating emissions savings in
near-real time. AIS data also has the scope
to alleviate some of the existing issues over
data transparency.
Improve ship representation in

accounting tools
Shipping data within carbon accounting
tools is inadequate for estimating supply
chain CO2. Different ship sizes and
types have very different CO2 intensities
(emissions per tonne-km), but the limited
choice within accounting tools does
not currently capture the non-linear
relationship between size and emissions.
The smaller the ship, the higher its CO2
intensity, yet for each ship type, once
ships reach a particular size, this intensity
changes very little. This relationship
makes it difficult to ascertain the typical
CO2 intensity for a particular ship type.
Carbon accounting methods and tools
can be improved by increasing the range
of options available, using the established
relationship between ship size and CO2
intensity for each ship type. For example,

as the UK has a prevalence of shortsea shipping, its ships tend to have a
higher emission intensity, leading to an
underestimate in the CO2 associated with
some supply chains.
Apportionment not necessary

Apportionment is regarded by many
decision-makers as a prerequisite to
enable sub-global policy. The absence
of agreement over how to fairly and
appropriately apportion emissions to
nations has been a significant barrier to
meaningful policy development. While
apportionment may be useful if nations
wish to account for their share of shipping
emissions in national budgets and targets,
nations are still in a position to take
unilateral action to reduce their share
of international shipping emissions if so
desired, even without apportionment.
The main problems with existing methods
to apportion emissions are the quality,
poor data availability and high cost of
data and the use of top-down measures
that can not monitor the success of any
policy measure put in place. A chosen
regime may also not fairly reflect a
nations share of global emissions. The
urgency with which shipping needs to
start down a 2C-type emission pathway
29
Absence of data transparency

is a barrier to change
gives no leeway for further delay.

Beginning a process of data gathering
to improve the transparency of fuel
consumption statistics is a first step
towards improving the data issue taken
by the EU, but other policy avenues can
be pursued in parallel.
Port-states can influence

emissions
Putting apportionment to one side
and looking beyond technology, there
is also the potential for influencing
operations. Ships could be regulated
or incentivised to be more efficient
within national waters. Similarly,
rethinking logistics to incorporate and
encourage slow-steaming can offer a
major opportunity for decarbonising
the sector. Distance travelled and ship
speed strongly influence shipping
CO2, and offer as much, if not more,
scope for decarbonisation than ship
mitigation technologies. Change within
the shipping sector is therefore not only
driven from within, but also by shifts
in international supply chains and
measures put in place by nations and
multi-national organisations.
Tailor technologies to markets

Of the many possible low-carbon
technologies available, their applicability
and impact on delivering rapid and
30
urgent decarbonisation will depend

on ship type and the service provided.
Technology measures are at different
stages of development. Wind propulsion
for new ships, whether sail, hybrid or
wind assist technologies, are at an
advanced stage but need support to
demonstrate the technology and for
a commercial model for deployment
to be defined. Others require more
fundamental support before commercial
application. Each ship type has to
be considered separately, and there
is stakeholder concern that different
options could crowd each other out, if
a strategic approach to innovation and
development is not taken.
Hybrid wind-assist ships

could be a retrofit option
Within the current set-up of the global
shipping system, wind power can work
as part of a hybrid propulsion system,
with the potential to provide significant
fuel savings, depending on ship type
and size. In particular, dry and wet bulk
carriers with free deck space are natural
candidates for harnessing the winds
energy, and could feasibly be retrofitted with wind-assist technologies
in the short-to medium-term, offering
a key opportunity for supporting
decarbonisation in shipping.
Changing energy systems

to significantly impact
shipping activity
The climate change agenda beyond
the shipping sector will influence the
future of trade. Land-based energy
system decarbonisation is likely to
drive a major change in shipping. The
demand for transporting fossil fuels
coal, oil and gas will shift significantly
if nations with high levels of fossil fuel
combustion are to achieve strict CO2
targets. Specific change will depend
on how decarbonisation is realised.
Coal trade in the future will rely on
the successful deployment of carbon
capture and storage.
Oil trade is set to fall significantly while
new markets may emerge for biomass
and biofuels. Implications for the CO2
associated with the shipping of fossil
fuels are profound. Using the UK as an
example, CO2 emissions arising from the
import of fossil fuel by ship could be cut
by up to 80%, if the UK adopts a low
energy demand/high renewables (or
nuclear) future.
Its about more than just ships

Delivering a step-change towards
decarbonisation goes beyond the ships
that sail the high seas. Shipping facilitates
trade between the producer and
consumer: the core drivers of shipping

activity. Decarbonising the shipping
sector to a level commensurate with 2C
will likely involve radical change not only
to technologies and operations, but to
consumption and production as well.
Look beyond shipping to

decarbonise the sector
Decarbonising shipping can benefit
from developments elsewhere. In the
energy system, low carbon efforts in
other sectors (e.g. batteries or modular
nuclear reactors), particularly in landbased transport, could offer spill-over
benefits to shipping. Similarly, shipping
will likely benefit from the deployment of
infrastructure designed for other sectors,
particularly the provision of energy,
transport and logistics networks.
fuel oil will diminish and diverse forms of

propulsion must take over.
With the advent of composite materials,
vessel design will need to overcome
the challenges surrounding structural
integrity when loading and unloading
goods at ports. But change wont be
limited to ship design and propulsion.
If the workforce is unable to adapt to
the operation and functionality of new
technologies there could be a deficit of
trained staff to operate a decarbonised
shipping sector.
There are numerous feasible pathways

to decarbonisation. Unlike some
sectors (e.g. aviation), opportunities for
decarbonising shipping are manifold and
stretch across technology, operations
and demand.
Nevertheless, across all decarbonisation
pathways articulated, slow-steaming
is part of the mix. By harnessing the
opportunities available both in the shortterm and across technologies, operations
and demand for trade, the shipping
sector has the potential to be a leading
sector in the decarbonisation challenge.
For decarbonisation to be realised,

the workforce (both on the ship and
in ports) must be considered from the
outset. Furthermore, ship builders need
to ensure their workforce is equipped to
respond to this significant change.
As shipping facilitates the operation of

other sectors, it needs to be aware of how
those sectors are themselves responding
to the decarbonisation agenda.
Ships of the future could look

and operate very differently
If the sector is to significantly
decarbonise over the coming decades
then incremental change is not the
solution. Some vessel types and services
will need to change fundamentally. In a
low CO2 future, dependency on heavy
31
POLICY INSIGHTS:
Industry insight:
In return for meeting specific low levels
of greenhouse gases including carbon
dioxide, sulphur oxide and nitrogen
oxide, amongst other criteria, the most
efficient vessels entering these harbours
will receive a discount on port dues, to
help encourage the use of clean ships.
Extract from Virgin.com, Easy as A to G:
green ships on the horizon, 2014.
The policy-relevant nature of the

research undertaken within the High
Seas project has delivered the following
policy insights...
shipping, and so could play an important

role in monitoring change.
Urgency trumps uncertainty
In the absence of global policies for

controlling emissions, ports are important
channels through which shipping emissions
can be influenced. Taking the example of
the UK, just 10 ports dominate imports
and are responsible for over 80% of the
port-related CO2 emissions. This offers
scope for a focus of mitigation policy that
is likely to involve close communication
and cooperation with relevant terminal
operators and port authorities to determine
appropriate levers for change. In particular,
mechanisms to prevent ships shifting their
business to other ports would need to
be introduced.
Uncertainty is cited frequently as a

reason for refraining from mitigation
measures that may have damaging
short-term financial implications.
However, continued delays in delivering
real mitigation will only serve to
increase the threat posed by the climate
challenges that have framed the High
Seas project research. For example,
uncertainty and lack of methodological
standardisation associated with
estimating UK shipping emissions have
contributed to the exclusion of the
sector from existing UK emission targets.
While accepting that uncertainty
exists, there are numerous examples
of published methodologies that could
form the basis of a bottom-up method
for quantifying UK shipping emissions.
Bottom-up methods can illustrate
trends in the demand for shipping in
ways that bunker fuels or trade proxies
cannot. Bottom-up data can identify the
direction of travel of carbon intensity of
32
Targeting the few?
Scope for differentiating

between markets and vessels
If the decarbonisation agenda is to deliver
meaningful cuts in emissions, the range
of technologies and operational practices
across the shipping sector is likely to
expand. Consequently, assessing the scope
for targeted policies that can differentiate
between markets and vessel types is
desirable. The importance of market- and
A decarbonised fleet will need to exploit

a combination of renewable propulsion,
alternative fuels and/or CO2 removal
technologies, in addition to more
conventional technologies and changes to
operations and practices. Not all solutions
will suit all service types. Policy instruments
to support decarbonisation need to be able
to capture diversity and avoid locking-out
potentially important niche opportunities.
Existing global governance arrangements
offer generic high-level incentives.
Complementary bottom-up specific
technology roadmaps and implementation
strategies could help accelerate a lowcarbon transition.
Debating apportionment delays

progress towards mitigation
Disagreement over how and if shipping
emissions should be apportioned
geographically has hampered policymaking
at the sub-global scale. Limitations, such
as high up-front costs and the absence of
transparent fuel consumption and freight

data, present barriers to implementing a
meaningful apportionment regime within
which the success of mitigation measures
could be monitored. In the UK, this has
led to the continued formal exclusion of
UK shipping CO2 from national budgets
and targets, despite nations being able to
directly influence their shipping emissions.
In several respects the shipping system
is more directly influenced at a national
rather than global level. For example
sub-global policies can influence demand
(source and destination of freight imported
and exported) and operations in ports
and national waters. Policymakers serious
about climate change would do well
to consider the influence that national
jurisdiction has over several important
aspects of the shipping system, the
implications of measures that could be
employed to control emissions, and how
success could then be monitored.
Nations could build on new

EU proposals
Recent proposals have been tabled by
the EU commission requiring vessel
owners to monitor, verify and report
on the emissions and fuel efficiency
of ships calling at EU ports. Assuming

approval by the European Parliament, the
European Commission anticipates that the
obligations associated with this scheme
would apply from January 1, 2018. A
quantitative understanding of greenhouse
gas emissions both from individual ships
and aggregate fleets is desirable given
the relatively opaque nature of such data
at present. Through implementation of
this scheme, emissions of ships calling at
national ports will be reported to both the
Commission and the flag state.
In the intervening period before its
implementation, it would be desirable
for national governments to seek guidance
on how this information may be used to
incentivise or regulate for lower emissions.
Furthermore, nations could follow in
Frances footsteps and accelerate the
timetable for delivering this policy, in
line with the EUs ultimate expectations.
This offers the potential advantage that,
sooner rather than later, shippers and
ship operators can cut their fuel costs
and avoid more stringent mitigation
measures that may be needed if CO2
emissions are not cut in the short-term
as dictated by carbon budgets.
33
vessel-specific roadmaps emerges quickly

when discussing pathways to change with
shipping stakeholders. With its complex
system of markets, services and vessel
types, solutions to decarbonisation are
necessarily varied.
Unilateral opportunities
Nations are not limited to the pace
of change set by the EU or IMO.
Through international supply chains
and with recent economic instability
and volatile fuel prices, shipping is
already experiencing an increase in
competition and is under pressure to
improve efficiency (and hence reduce
relative emissions). This period of change
could offer new opportunities to adopt
mitigation measures that could reduce
fuel costs. One idea emerging from one
of the High Seas project stakeholder
workshops was for governments to
purchase idle ships, lease them to
shipping companies and test new
configurations for reducing emissions,
all with little risk to commercial fleet.
Step-change decisions require

support for development and
deployment
Although there is an inherent
conservatism within the shipping
sector, the scale of the climate change
challenge highlights the need for nonincremental change. Many analyses of the
shipping sector show significant carbon
abatement potential, but highlight an
absence of commercial development and
34
deployment. Although there are potential

markets for new low-carbon shipping
technologies, some of these technologies
require commercial support, while others
still need more fundamental research.
Moving ahead first brings significant
risks for companies. Government
funding for research, development, and
demonstration, and a more long-term
economic assessment of cost savings
offer opportunities to support the sector
and spur rapid change.
There are co-benefits to

tackling CO2 and local
pollutants in unison
The sector is currently taking a shortterm and piecemeal approach to
addressing environmental pollution. By
implementing Emission Control Areas
to reduce sulphur emissions, incentives
to develop LNG infrastructure are
emerging. Yet LNG only offers shortterm and incremental benefits in terms
of CO2 emissions reductions, and is
not commensurate with the reductions
necessary to avoid exceeding the 2C
threshold. To address cumulative CO2
emissions and localised SOx emissions in
parallel, more radical step-change forms
of propulsion are called for. For example,
wind technologies, bio-derived fuels and

fuel cells can all deliver both low SOX
and CO2. Drawing attention to this issue
within the debate can help to avoid the
risk of lock-in to new infrastructure and
prevent the lock-out and stranded assets
of future lower carbon technologies.
Mitigation efforts can not wait

Greenhouse gas emissions accumulate
over time. The more effective measures
that can be implemented in the shortterm, the easier it will be to avoid
a temperature rise of 2C in future.
Challenges faced at IMO meetings in
agreeing policies commensurate with
2C will likely continue to mirror similar
impasses at the global UN climate
negotiations. As measures to tackle
emissions continue to emerge slowly
through IMO meetings, decarbonisation
mechanisms must be established
more urgently. Port-states could, for
example, influence emissions and could
make assessments of where and how
this influence could be harnessed for
reducing CO2 emissions. Multi-national
organisations engaged in supply chains
also have a role in driving down CO2
emissions within the freight transport
network. Such action does not need to
Ultimately
There is a myriad of opportunities for
enlightened governments and forward
thinking companies and organisations
to begin reconciling levels of shipping
emissions with the 2C mitigation agenda.
Whether or not they choose to embrace
such an agenda, the industry inevitably
faces a future of radical change. The
choice is between rapid and planned 2C
mitigation or piecemeal and unplanned
adaptation to rapidly changing events
and conditions.
From High Seas to Shipping in Changing Climates

As the High Seas project
approached its conclusion, a
new consortium of researchers
under the banner of Shipping
in Changing Climates (SCC)
embarked from November 2013
on new research funded by the
EPSRCs Energy Programme.
The consortium is an amalgamation
of two teams of researchers
previously funded by the EPSRC
within their Low Carbon Shipping
remit. The project is led by UCL,
with researchers from Manchester,
Newcastle, Southampton and
Strathclyde involved.
There are three themes, addressing
the following areas:
3. Interactions between demand

and supply integrating insights
The University of Manchester team,
based within the Tyndall Centre,
leads Theme 2 and is heavily
involved in Theme 3, further
developing its systems perspective
and scenario approach.
A particularly exciting collaboration
within SCC is the involvement of an
additional Tyndall Centre partner
at the University of Southampton,
offering insights around future
climate impacts on sea level
rises, storm events and changing
weather patterns and exploring the
resilience of the current shipping
system to disruption.
wait for agreement on how to apportion

responsibility for shipping emissions
to nations. Instead, nations should look
for new direct avenues for change,
targeting ships calling in national ports or
operating in national waters.
1. Ship as a system investigating

2.

real-world opportunities for

mitigation technologies
Demand side drivers
exploring how trade could be
influenced by climate mitigation
and adaptation
35
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
First and foremost the High Seas project
team would like to thank their funders
the EPSRCs Energy Programme for their
financial support both for this project,
and for the future research funded under
Shipping in Changing Climates.
Next, we would like to thank the Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research for
helping to raise the profile of the work,
and encouraging researchers to take their
findings outside academia to wider policy
and stakeholder audiences. The support of
the staff at the Tyndall headquarters in the
University of East Anglia adds huge value
to how this research is carried out.
The School of Civil Aerospace and
Mechanical Engineering (MACE) within
the University of Manchester is host
to Tyndall Manchester, the research
group within which the High Seas team
resides. MACE is unusual in its active
support for interdisciplinary research,
but in doing so, has allowed physical,
environmental and social scientists, as
well as engineers, to work closely for the
benefit of the High Seas project and the
low-carbon shipping endeavour, and for
this we are very grateful.
36
During the High Seas project, engagement

with stakeholders played a key role. In
particular, the help and guidance of the
advisory board and the co-operation of
a range of interviewees strengthened
the direction and findings of the
research. Wed like to thank all those who
participated in interviews, workshops
and especially the advisory board for
providing one-to-one guidance.
Finally, we would like to thank our
immediate colleagues within Tyndall
Manchester, who help bind a wide range of
research questions within a climate change
and energy-focused context, which helps
to keep all of our projects grounded and
rooted in robust methodologies.
Thanks to all from the High Seas team:

Dr Alice Bows-Larkin (principal
investigator); Professors Kevin
Anderson and Peter Stansby, Drs Paul
Gilbert, Sarah Mander and Antonio
Filippone (co-investigators); Dr Conor
Walsh (core researcher); Dr Michael
Traut (researcher); and Ms Amrita Sidhu
(project administrator).
Dr Paul Gilbert
Co-investigator
Dr Conor Walsh
Core researcher
Professor Kevin Anderson

Co-investigator
Dr Sarah Mander
Co-investigator
Dr Michael Traut
Researcher
Professor Peter Stansby

Co-investigator
Dr Antonio Filippone
Core researcher
Ms Amrita Sidhu
Project administrator
Dr Alice Bows-Larkin
Principal investigator
37
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38
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June 2011.
39
2.2 Traut, Bows, Gilbert, Mander, Stansby, Walsh,
implications for UK shipping, 2012, Carbon
Stakeholder workshop and

policy report:
Other engagement, awards and

prizes:
IA.3 Walsh, Incorporating Life Cycle
IA.9 Traut, Message from the masthead -
elements into the energy efficiency design
elements of a transition in the shipping sector,
index, presentation at Low Carbon Shipping
presentation at Tyndall PhD conference Climate
O.1 Gilbert, What about plan B?, podcast recorded
Conference, Glasgow, June 2011.
Transitions: Connecting People, Planet and Place,
at Tyndall Centre conference, Southampton, 2010.
Cardiff, April 2013.

IA.4 Walsh and Bows, The Importance of Product
O.2 Knowledge Transfer EPSRC grant- Accounting
Distinction in Lifecycle and Product Chain
IA.10 Bows, Pathways to low-carbon
Analyses, presentation at Irish Transport Research
international transport: a comparison of
Network, Aug 2011.
shipping and aviation, Low Carbon Shipping
O.3 Promotion to Lectureship for Gilbert, originally
Conference, Sept 2013, London.
a named RA on the High Seas project, 2011.
baselines for overseas freight arriving in the
IA.11 Anderson and Bows, Avoiding dangerous
O.4 Bows, Environmental Cost of Transport, paper
UK, presentation at Royal Geographical Society
climate change: why shipping must deliver
delivered to an industry shipping audience, Short-
Annual Conference, London, Sept 2011.
a Scharnow turn in its rising emissions, Low
Sea Shipping Conference, Dublin, May 2012.
on the High Seas, 10k, 2010.
IA.5 Walsh and Bows, Assessing emission
Carbon Shipping Conference, Sept 2013, London.

IA.6 Walsh, C. and Bows, A., Implications of
O.5 Walsh, Shipping emissions and Climate
recent trade patterns on future UK shipping
IA.12 Walsh, Mander and Bows, A comparison
change: SOS or Full Steam ahead? Talk presented
emissions. Britain and the Sea. Plymouth,
of alternative decarbonisation scenarios for UK
at a Sustainable Future for Manchester Event,
Sept 2012.
Shipping, Low Carbon Shipping Conference, Sept
Manchester, 2012.
2013, London.
IA.7 Mander, Walsh, Gilbert, Traut, Bows, A
O.6 New collaboration - Shipping in Changing
systems perspective on decarbonising the
IA.13 Bows, The importance of being Urgent:
Climates- new funded proposal to the EPSRC,
UK energy system - impacts on shipping
aviation, shipping and the mitigation debate,
2013. 4.4 million FEC.
CO2 emissions, presentation at Low Carbon
European Transport Conference, Frankfurt,
Shipping Conference, Newcastle, Sept 2012.
Germany, Oct 2013.
IA.8 Bows, Executing a Scharnow turn:
Technical report:
O.7 Walsh, Public engagement talk for

Cafe Scientifique, Manchester, 2013. O.8 Traut,
Michael, EPSRC Doctoral Prize Award, 2013.
O.9 Bows, Shaping the future in the face of
reconciling shipping emissions with

international commitments on climate change,
IA.1 Bows-Larkin, Anderson, Gilbert, Mander,
climate change: the role of shipping, National
2012, Invited seminar to CICERO in Oslo,
Traut, Walsh Stansby, Fillipone, High Seas Final
Ethical Investment Week Seminar, 2013.
Norway Dec 2012.
Report, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change

Research, School of Mechanical Aerospace and
Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester.
40
Policy engagement:
P.1 Gilbert, Expert for panel on transport and
Invited presentation at a stakeholder/policy
environment/clean shipping coalition seminar
event organised by Transport and Environment,
- regulatory options for controlling shipping
Brussels, 2012.
emissions in the EU, Brussels, 2010.

P.8 Gilbert, Bows, Mander, Traut, Walsh, Written
P.2 Bows, Gilbert, Anderson, Mander, Starkey,
submission to Maritime Strategy Inquiry, 2013.
Walsh, Traut, Acknowledgement by UK

Committee on Climate Change for contribution
P.9 Gilbert, Mander, Oral evidence to the Maritime
to their report on UK shipping emissions, 2011.
Strategy Inquiry, 2013.
P.3 Bows, Walsh, Shipping emissions
Computer model/software:
accounting: challenges and opportunities. 2011,

Tyndall/SCI briefing note.
C.1 Traut, Computer model to quantify shipping

emissions from AIS satellite data, 2012.
P.4 Dawkins, Wood, Bows, Roeder, Gilbert,

Written submission to energy and climate
C.2 Traut, Tool to assess the CO2 mitigation
change committee inquiry into consumption
potential for wind-powered shipping, 2012.
based emissions reporting, 2011.

C.3 Walsh, Excel based tool to quantify
P.5 Gilbert, Walsh, Written submission to
the lifecycle CO2 emissions associated
the European Commission Consultation on
with shipping.
the EUs greenhouse gas reduction
C.4 Walsh, Excel based tool to generate
commitment, 2012.
future emission scenarios for UK Shipping.
including maritime transport emissions in
P.6 Bows, Traut, Anderson, Gilbert, Walsh,

Aviation and shipping privileged- again? UK
delays decision to act on emissions, 2012,
Tyndall Centre Briefing Note number 47.
P.7 Traut, Making CO2 emissions visible - linking
global positioning data to emissions, 2012,
41
This report was written by members of the High Seas team. High Seas was an EPSRC-funded project based with the Tyndall Manchester research group within the School of
Mechanical Aerospace and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester. If citing this report, please use BowsLarkin, A., Mander, S., Gilbert, P., Traut, M., Walsh, C., and
Anderson, K. (2014) High Seas, High Stakes, High Seas Final Report, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
The printed version of this report is printed with soya-based inks on silk paper made from 100% recycled de-inked post-consumer waste.

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HIGH SEAS, HIGH STAKES

HIGH SEAS PROJECT FINAL REPORT

Options for decarbonising shipping

Conclusions from High Seas

Bibliography of High Seas outputs

Illustrate implications of the quantitative

It is clear that the science of climate

Summarise opportunities and scenarios

Describe the shipping-specific policy

During the High Seas Project, the research

This report serves to raise the profile of

HIGH SEAS FINAL REPORT

Consider the policy implications of the

Working with global carbon budgets

For more detail see: Anderson & Bows,

Figure 1: Comparison of 2C emission pathways with

With such a level of institutional

be 0.1%. UK shipping will be included in

that could significantly reduce the sectors

Three principal options are open to ship

For more detail see: Gilbert, From

As this legislation is likely to lead to a

HIGH SEAS FINAL REPORT

charterers, shippers and port authorities.

Figure 2: Comparison of the global average growth in CO2

Such an approach could provide an

It is widely accepted that shipping must

ships because at frequent and regular time

While the 3 per cent figure is generally

Working with AIS data gathered by both

More generally, any useful tool for

For more detail see: Traut, M., Monitoring

Ship emission estimates also have an

Figure 4: Main engine (ME) fuel

size and CO2 emissions (Figure 5). The

using most existing tools. For example,

Data analysis by the project team

For more detail see: Walsh & Bows,

HIGH SEAS FINAL REPORT

Supply chain accounting

Figure 3: Track of a vessel reconstructed

Carbon intensity (g CO2/tonne-km)

Ship size in deadweight tonnes

Figure 5: Illustration of how CO2 intensity of different ship types becomes

Nonetheless, the legacy of the Kyoto

Most nations rely on the IMO to deliver mitigation

there remains strong support from many

and the UK would be making unilateral

For instance, port states (coastal

apportionment, many complications

options. Policymakers and organisations

It is clear that complications surrounding

HIGH SEAS FINAL REPORT

Design Index). The research highlighted

Figure 6: Screenshot of the ASK-C scenario tool

Modelling future emissions

Each commodity category is allocated

one stage further, cumulative emissions

Armed with tools to quantify the CO2

The scenarios parameters are not only

Figure 7: Decarbonising the UK

Figure 8: The High Seas Projects

Figure 9: Extract from the High Seas

to be examined in detail. Research within