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This manager is very stable. Start it up, and it will continue running.
Define your Forecast Sets.
OK, what is a Forecast Set? Its an arbitrary grouping of your demand based on how YOU want to express it. You can
have as many sets as you want, but then you run the risk of duplicating the same demand stream in another set.
Separating by Product Line or Geography are two popular schemes. Suggestion: Start simple (maybe with just one
Forecast Set).
Next step: Click on the Forecast Items button and set up your four-step hierarchy.
Overconsumption entries are easy to spot because they are marked as a negative value.
Click on the Overconsumption line and click the Consumptions button to view details.
Close the Forecast Consumptions window and click on the Bucketed button.
This is the view that can be exported to Excel (File>Export) if you wish to measure Item Forecast Accuracy using
custom formulas.
This view can be bucketed in Days, Weeks, or Periods and displayed in Dollars or Units. The bottom three columns
represent data within the defined date range. Change the date range and the Cumulative columns recalculate. Notice
some columns have TWO headings for the same date. One is for normal consumption; a second column is added if
there is Overconsumption.
This view is also handy for a quick item review. In the near term, Cum Current should be at or near zero. This
means that the cumulative quantity forecasted in the date range up to the point you are viewing is being sold
(consumed). If Cum Current is high in the near term, your forecast is too high. If Cum Current is zero and you have
Overconsumption (selling more than expected), your forecast is too low.
Note: If you have Oracles Demand Planning or Demantra applications, you can execute Forecast Consumption
during the ASCP plan run using ASCP Plan options. Also, you can define worksheets to calculate Forecast Accuracy.
Demantra offers predefined worksheets.
Final thoughts on forecasting with Forecast Set functionality:
Start simple (with just one Forecast Set). Add complexity only if you really need it.
Like any other setup, MAINTAIN the data over time.
Planning and Sales folks can actually work together!
Marketing and Finance might use this data in the future, for planning and budgeting purposes.
Happy Forecasting!!