Conflict Mapping and Conflict Tracking

Having concentrated so far on types and patterns of conflict, we conclude the

chapter with a brief note on the mapping and tracking of individual conflicts
and identify some of the ways in which conflict analysis can be aided by the
wealth of data now available on the Internet.
Conflict mapping. in Paul Wehr's words. is 'a first step in intervening to
manage a particular conflict, Ir gives both the intervenor and the cenflict parties a clearer understanding of the origins. nature, dynamics and possibilities
for resolution of the conflict' (1979: 18). It is a method of presenting a structured anatysis of'a particular ctlnllirr at a particular moment in rime. Ir is used
by analysts to give a quick profile of a ronllict situation and is also widely used
in conflict resolution workshops to elicit from participants a snapshot of their
view ofrhe conflict. Any particular map should be undersrood to represenr the
views of the aurhortsl and. as a schematic. to be indicative rather than com
prehensive. Wehr himself (I 979: 18-22) suggested that what was necessary in
conflict mapping was:
1 a short summary description (one page maximum):
2 a conflicl history:

3 conflict context (geographical boundaries. political structures. communications networks, etc.]:

4 conflict parties (primary, secondary, interested third parries], including
power relations (symmetrical or asymmetrical). main goals and potential
for coalitions:
5 conflict issues [facts-based, values-based. interests-based, non-realistic);
6 conllict dynamics (precipuaring events, issue emergence. polarization,
spiralling, stereotyping]:
7 alternative routes to a solution of the problemtsl: ai\d

8 conflict regulation or resolution potenrial (inrerual limiting factors. exrernal limiting factors. interested or neutral third parties, techniques of con

flier management).
Wehr's conflict mapping guide was to be applicable to 'the full range of conflict types from interpersonal to international levels'.
Adapting Wehr's conflict mapping guide. we suggest the steps outlined in
box 3.6 for preparing an initial profile of a conflict. This can be supplemented
by a diagram showing the main parries and third patties. the issues and the
channels of communication and influence between them (Fisher er al.. 2000).
We also suggest that u is particularly helpful to chart: (a) geography (rivers.
mountains. etc}, (b) stare borders and [c] the disrriburion of peoples. This is
especially illuminating

in comparing conflicts.

Having mapped the structure of the conflict. the next step is to use the infermatiou in the map to identify the scope for conflicr resolution. preferablywith
the help ofrhe parries or embedded third parties. Such an analysis would identify changes in the context which could alter the conflict situation. including
the interests and capacities of third parties to influence it; changes within and
between the conflict parties. such as internal leadership struggles, varying pros
peers formili tary success. the readinessof general popu larions to expresssu pport

Box 3.6 A conflict mapping guide

A Background
1 Map of th!> area.
2 Br.ief descri,ptioo of the country.
3 Outline h!sto1,: of the c:onn,ct.
B Tlie conflict parties and Issues
1 Who are the core cofltlkt pc1rt1es1

What are,theirintemalsubgn:x.1ps'
.. on what constituenciesdo ihey depend?
2 what are. the _conttkt issues)
1511 Jl9<~ble to distinguishbetween posittoos, fnte<.ests(material interests, values,
relatiorutiips) and neeas>
3 What tir'e the felatiol"!Shlpt,bet.ween the conflict p~tties?

Ar.e lbera qualltative and qu.:.nti~nve asym-rne,ries?

4 What an: the dlfferenl percepuoes Qf the causes and nature of the <;onfli~l among tbe
conflict pa~es1
S \.Vhai is U,"" current behavwur of th?. pnrtJ:es (Is th!" conlhctln an 'esai!ntory' or 'deescalatory' phas&l)7
6 Who ar.e the leaders of the p,anles? At the ehte/lndivlduaJ level, what are thel!

objectives, policies, fntorest.5,and relative strengths and weaknesses?

C

Tlie context: global, regiOhal andstatelevel factors

l At the state level: Is the nature of theatate c;ontested1 How open and at<:essibl'e is.
\he.state-apparatus? A,e tbere !nstltulH,:insor fora which c:ovkf.serveas leg11unate
Channels for maMglrJ9 die coriflict? How even is e(Of"IOmicdeveloprnerit and ~re 1here

economic pptides Which can have .a positive lmpaC't1

2 At the ,egional le'l.<e-1 ho\-., do.relationswith neighbouring .states and societies 'alfect the
conflict? ne the perues ha,e. exremaJ r~ional..supponetslWhich regionalactors might
bl? trcsted by the pa, ties?
3 At the global level are there ootslde geopotitfcal lntere!its in the conflict? What are the
external factorS th.11 fuel 1h~c:onRict and \Yhal could change themt

fora settlemenr: possible ways ofredefiuinggoals and finding alternative means

of resolving differences, including suggested steps towards settlement and even
tual trausfonuatiou: likely constraints on these; and how these might be overcome. These issues are considered furtheriii the chapters that follow.
A conflict map is an initial snapshot. Analysts 111ay then want to keep updating it by regular 'conflict tracking'. This can now be done increasingly efficienrly through the Internet. The revolution in cornmunicarions technology

that has occurred over the past ten years or so has already had an impact on
conflict resolution and post-conflict peacebuilding (Reynolds Levy. 2004). In
particular, high-quality data and information. beth quantitative and qualitarive in nature, is available on a variety of websites (see box 3.7). In addition we
might begin to see measures of peaceful futures built onto the methodology

Box 3.7 Sources of information for peace ;ma conflict tracking

Global Peace Index: www.visfonofhumanity.org/
The GPI i~ a project .of V1s1on of Humanity. which runs a number of 1merrelated mmatives, including. also the Institute [or Econerrucs and eeace. The GPI was launched m
t997 by St!?"e Killelea, an Australian IT entrepreoeurwho in rooo set up The i;:haritable
Foundation(TCF). Which is one of Australfas large,~pnvate funderssupporting humanitarian, developmeni ,nd p~ace projeqs and tnitiatlves. Killelea was ,nftvenced by
Tibetan Buddhism and is a trusteeof the World Council of Religions fer Peace. The.GP!
has been published annually since 2007 and provides the most sophisticated me\tiodol091currentlyavailable to measure and rank the peacefulness of nati!,ns.
The Heidelberg Institute for lntern~tlonal Conflict Research (HIIK): http://hllk.
de/en/index.html

Located in the Oepanmem of Political Science at rhe Un1versity of Heidelberg in

Germany. the HUK gathers documentation and conducts research and analysis of
naUonal and internatlonal political conflicts. IL was founded in 1991 to contjnue the
work of the; research project COSIMO (Conflict Simuladon Modef). COSIMO records
informationon polilical conflicts since 1945 and currently holds information on more
than 600 conflicts in ova< 2,500 phases, according to levels orescalation and deescalation and violent and non-violent phases. Research results are publlshe-d fo an
annual Conflict Barometer.
Autonomou, University of 8arcelona,School for the Culture of Peace(Escola de
Cultura de Pau), Programme on Conflict and Peacebuilding

This pro9ramme had its origins in an-annual report on arm~ transf~rs which started iri
1998. The Programmeon Conflict and Peacebulldingstarted in ioo1 and conducts daily
monitoring and analysisOf armed conflicts,situations of tensi<;:n, peace processes, postwar ret>abililation, hum'lflit~rlan crises, militar1zion and ,;lisarmament, hvman right;.
and international humanitarian law and gender and peacebuilding The findings are
published in Serrnlforo (formightly), Bo/elin Mensual (monthly). Bar6metro (qu,an.erly)
and the comprehensive annual report Alertal.

International Crisis Group: www.icg.org

Based In Brussels.with t 00 field analysts on five continents, Ltiisorganiuolion provide!'
analyses of current conflicts and advocates policy responses. Its Crisiswch bulletin
reports developments in <Some- seventy conflict s-ituations and assesseswbether in the
past month the situation has s,gnlficantly improved, detenorated or remains the same.