JORDAN WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT STUDY

Water demand management in Mediterranean

countries: Thinking outside the water box!
Jordan case study

Diagnostic Report - Final

Prepared for
French Agency of Development (AFD)

March 2011

Table of Contents
Table of Contents................................................................................................................ 2
List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... 5
List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... 8
List of Abbreviations ......................................................................................................... 11
Executive Summary........................................................................................................... 12
1

Background ............................................................................................................... 21

Objective and Scope of the Study............................................................................. 22

Current Water Situation ........................................................................................... 23

3.1

Current Water Resources................................................................................... 23

3.1.1

Surface water .............................................................................................. 23

3.1.2

Groundwater............................................................................................... 26

3.1.3

Treated wastewater.................................................................................... 30

3.1.4

Summary of water resources in Jordan ...................................................... 32

3.2

Current Water Uses and Demands .................................................................... 33

3.2.1

Domestic Sector .......................................................................................... 33

3.2.2

Touristic Sector ........................................................................................... 36

3.2.3

Agricultural Sector ...................................................................................... 37

3.2.4

Industrial Sector.......................................................................................... 41

3.2.5

Natural Sector ............................................................................................. 44

3.2.5.1

The Dead Sea ....................................................................................... 44

3.2.5.2

The Azraq oasis .................................................................................... 45

3.2.5.3

Wadi Mujeb ......................................................................................... 46

3.2.5.4

Wadi Wala ........................................................................................... 46

3.2.5.5

Summary of natural demand............................................................... 46

3.2.6

Summary of projected demands for Jordan ............................................... 47

3.2.7
2025

Summary of sources, projected demands and deficit for Jordan till the year
48

3.3

Strategies, Policies and Legislations................................................................... 50

3.4

Constraints on Implementing Water Policy and Strategies ............................... 58

Future Trends in Water resources and Demand ...................................................... 64

4.1

Water Resources ................................................................................................ 64

4.1.1

Future Water Availability ............................................................................ 64

4.1.2

Polluted Water Resources and Future Trends............................................ 71

4.2

Water Demand ................................................................................................... 75

4.2.1

4.2.1.1

Domestic Sector................................................................................... 75

4.2.1.2

Industrial Sector................................................................................... 87

4.2.1.3

Tourism Sector..................................................................................... 90

4.2.1.4

Agricultural sector ............................................................................... 91

4.2.2

4.3

Assessment of the Factors Affecting Water Demand................................. 75

Evaluation of Future Water Demand........................................................ 104

4.2.2.1

Domestic water demand forecasting ................................................ 104

4.2.2.2

Industrial water demand forecasting ................................................ 106

4.2.2.3

Tourist water demand forecasting .................................................... 106

4.2.2.4

Agricultural water demand forecasting............................................. 107

Climate Change Impact on Water Resources................................................... 107

4.3.1

Introduction .............................................................................................. 108

4.3.2

Climate change, water resources and risk................................................ 110

4.3.3

Climatic Trend in Jordanian watersheds................................................... 112

4.3.4

Projected Climate Change in Jordanian Watersheds ............................... 112

4.3.5

Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources of Jordan............. 115

4.3.6

Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Resources of Jordan................ 117

4.3.7

Conclusion and Recommendations .......................................................... 120

Assessment of Existing Programs ........................................................................... 121

5.1

Decentralization/Corporatization of Water and Sanitation Services .............. 121

5.1.1

Case Description ....................................................................................... 121

5.1.2

Cost effectiveness ..................................................................................... 125

5.2

Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) .................................................... 127

5.2.1

Case description........................................................................................ 127

5.2.2

Cost effectiveness analysis ....................................................................... 128

5.2.3

Conclusions ............................................................................................... 131

List of References.................................................................................................... 133

Appendices.............................................................................................................. 138
7.1

Appendix I: Cost effective analysis................................................................... 139

List of Tables
Table 1: Long term average surface runoff in MCM for the different surface catchments in
Jordan ................................................................................................................................ 24
Table 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their safe yields (BGR, 2004) ...................... 27
Table 3: Domestic water supply for the different governorates in Jordan for the years
2000 till 2008 in MCM....................................................................................................... 34
Table 4: Population growth rates for Jordan .................................................................... 34
Table 5: Per capita water demand (MWI, 2008) .............................................................. 35
Table 6: Projected domestic water demands in MCM for the different governorates in
Jordan................................................................................................................................ 35
Table 7: Historical touristic water use per governorate in MCM ..................................... 36
Table 8: Projected touristic water demands per governorate in MCM (including losses
and landscaping) ............................................................................................................... 37
Table 9: Projected irrigated areas in the JRV and in the uplands in ha (NWMP, 2004) ... 38
Table 10: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in the JRV and in the Uplands in
MCM (NWMP, 2004)......................................................................................................... 39
Table 11: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in MCM for 2003-2009 ............ 40
Table 12: Irrigation water use and projected irrigation water demand per governorate
till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004) in MCM ........................................................................ 40
Table 13: Industrial water consumption for certain big industries in Jordan (NWMP,
2004) ................................................................................................................................. 42
Table 14: Industrial water use and water resources for 2006-2009 in MCM .................. 42
Table 15: Projected industrial demand regular growth rate (MWI, 2004)..................... 43
Table 16: Industrial water use and projected industrial demand per governorate in MCM
till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004) ...................................................................................... 43
Table 17: Historical annual water supplied to Azraq Oasis .............................................. 45
Table 18: Summary of natural demand for Jordan........................................................... 47

Table 19: Projected total demands for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand in
MCM.................................................................................................................................. 49
Table 20: Summary of projected sources, demands and deficit for Jordan till the year
2025 excluding natural demand and excluding RSDSC in MCM....................................... 49
Table 21: Summary of projected sources, demands and deficit for Jordan till the year
2025 excluding natural demand and including RSDSC in MCM ....................................... 49
Table 22: Existing planning, strategies, policies and legislations ..................................... 54
Table 23: JRSP phasing schedule and water flows............................................................ 65
Table 24: Future water resources in Jordan (make it as graph as there is incremental
increase annually for some sources) ................................................................................ 70
Table 25: Summary of factors affecting domestic water demand ................................... 86
Table 26: Summary statistics for the hotels nights, rooms, and arrivals in 2009............. 90
Table 27: Representative Net Tourist Demand (excluding physical losses) ..................... 90
Table 28: Change in Irrigation water requirement according to irrigation and cultivation
technologies in relation to standard water requirement................................................. 92
Table 29: On-farm water irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley ........................... 92
Table 30: Field irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley for citrus and vegetables... 93
Table 31: Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in Jordan 93
Table 32: Irrigation water tariff structure in Jordan Valley ............................................ 100
Table 33: Groundwater tariff structure .......................................................................... 100
Table 34: Relationship of total billed water for domestic sector as a function of Average
annual Income of household member, % of Non-Residential water billed to total water
billed and Water supply .................................................................................................. 105
Table 35: Regression parameters of industrial water demand and industrial production
......................................................................................................................................... 106
Table 36: Impact of climate change on freshwater resources (IPCC, 2007d) ................ 110

Table 37: Statistical adjustment for difference between 2xCO2 and current (1xCO2) as
estimated Hadley and MPI models for Zarqa River basin. ............................................. 114
Table 38: Projected change in annual surface runoff in Jordan ..................................... 117
Table 39: Projected change in groundwater recharge in Jordan ................................... 120
Table 40: PSP main initiatives in the Jordanian water sector......................................... 122
Table 41: Cost effectiveness analysis inputs................................................................... 126
Table 42: Cost effectiveness analysis results .................................................................. 126
Table 43: Number of greenhouses in selected pilot areas of the Jordan Valley.. 132
Table 44: Model-based estimations of impacts from Participatory Irrigation
Management (case study from the southern Jordan Valley) ................................ 132

List of Figures
Figure 1: Hydrographic map of Jordan ............................................................................. 26
Figure 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their estimated safe yields, (BGR, 2004)....... 28
Figure 3: Surface and groundwater basins in Jordan ....................................................... 29
Figure 4: Safe Yield and over abstraction from the renewable groundwater basins in
2009 .................................................................................................................................. 30
Figure 5: Estimated effluent volume from As Samra WWTP till the year 2025 taking into
consideration the implementation of the Disi project ..................................................... 31
Figure 6: Estimated volume of As Samra effluent assuming the implementation of the
RSDSC project.................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 7: Summary of available fresh water resources in Jordan till the year 2025
including the RSDSC .......................................................................................................... 33
Figure 8: Domestic demand for Jordan for the years 2000 till 2025................................ 36
Figure 9: Sources of irrigation water in the JV and in the uplands between 1996 and
2002 .................................................................................................................................. 40
Figure 10: Projected irrigation water demand by governorate........................................ 41
Figure 11: Total demand projection for all uses for Jordan in MCM................................ 47
Figure 12: Water resources and demands for Jordan without implementing the RSDSC
........................................................................................................................................... 50
Figure 13: Water resources and demands in Jordan assuming the implementation of the
RSDSC project.................................................................................................................... 50
Figure 14: The Area of JVA Responsibility ........................................................................ 53
Figure 15: Historical capital investments in the municipal water and wastewater
infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 61
Figure 16: Distribution of financing sources of the capital investment of WAJ ............... 61
Figure 17: Historical debt of WAJ ..................................................................................... 62
Figure 18: Un-accountant for water ratios in Jordans governorates for year 2009........ 67

Figure 19: Distribution of residential customers against quarterly water consumption for
2008 .................................................................................................................................. 68
Figure 20: Accumulative major additional future new water resource quantities .......... 70
Figure 21: Relative importance of additional future new water resources ..................... 71
Figure 22: Groundwater level and electrical conductivity in the Amman-Zarqa basin
(Source World Bank, 2009) ............................................................................................... 73
Figure 23: Population relation to total water billed for each governorates over 20012009 .................................................................................................................................. 77
Figure 24: Relation between population growth the total billed water change for 20012009 .................................................................................................................................. 77
Figure 25: Relation between urban population and residential water consumption for
2006 .................................................................................................................................. 79
Figure 26: Relation between urban population and water supply for 2009 except of
Aqaba ................................................................................................................................ 79
Figure 27: Relation between rural population and NRW for 2009................................... 80
Figure 28: the relation between the rural population and the range of seasonal variation
in water supply for 2009 ................................................................................................... 81
Figure 29: Percentage of urban population to total population in Jordans Governorate
over 2003-2009 (Source of data is DOS)........................................................................... 81
Figure 30: Relationship between the average household member income and total per
capita water billed ............................................................................................................ 82
Figure 31: Relation between water supply and residential water consumption excluding
Aqaba ................................................................................................................................ 83
Figure 32: Quarterly water supply per governorate for 2009 .......................................... 84
Figure 33: Quarterly variation form the average water supply per governorate for 2009
........................................................................................................................................... 84
Figure 34: Quarterly variation form the average billed water per governorate for 2009 85
Figure 35: Quarterly billed water per governorate for 2009............................................ 85

Figure 36: Relationship between the ratio of non-residential customer to total customer
with the total per capita billed water ............................................................................... 86
Figure 37: Relationship of the industrial production and water consumption ................ 87
Figure 38: Historical water use intensity for sample of industries ................................... 88
Figure 39: Estimated water use intensity for main industry groups ................................ 89
Figure 40: Historical occupancy rate for the different hotels Agricultural sector............ 91
Figure 41: Relative Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in
Jordan................................................................................................................................ 94
Figure 42: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in upland......... 95
Figure 43: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in Jordan Valley
........................................................................................................................................... 95
Figure 44: Agro-climatic zones in Jordan .......................................................................... 97
Figure 45: Typical field crops water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley............... 97
Figure 46: Typical vegetables water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley .............. 98
Figure 47: Typical fruit trees water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley................ 99
Figure 48: Surface water demand curve for irrigation ................................................... 102
Figure 49: Brackish water demand curve for irrigation.................................................. 102
Figure 50: Recycled wastewater demand cure for irrigation ......................................... 103
Figure 51: Categories for classifying crop tolerance to salinity according to the United
State Department of Agriculture Salinity Lab ................................................................. 104
Figure 52: Comparison of baseline 1960-2000 average mean monthly temperature and
1 CO2 GCM scenarios for Zarqa River Basin ................................................................. 114
Figure 53: Historical Nonrevenue Water (NRW) in Jordans water utilities................... 123
Figure 54: NRW change over 2001-2009 in Jordans water utilities .............................. 124

10

List of Abbreviations
RSDSC
MWI
WAJ
NRW
JVA
UFW
MCM
WIS
WWTP
AZB
KTD
KAC
MEMR
MW
MoPIC
NGO
BOT
AWC
WWTP
ADC
PSP

Red Sea Dead Sea Canal

Ministry of Water and Irrigation
Water Authority of Jordan
Non Revenue Water
Jordan Valley Authority
Un-Accountant for Water
Million Cubic Meter
Water Information System
Wastewater Treatment Plant
Amman Zarqa Basin
King Talal Dam
King Abdulla Canal
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
Mega Watt
Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation
Non-Governmental Organization
Build-Operate-Transfer
Aqaba Water Company
Wastewater Treatment Plant
Aqaba Development Company
Private Sector Participation

11

Executive Summary
Background
1. Water use and water resource management in Jordan is a result of a complex set
of interdependent factors, which range from natural and technical constraints
via conflicting needs and interests up to institutional conditions and political
agendas. Decisions and handling in water- related issues on each stakeholder
level are in fact not only an outcome of these interdependencies but constitute
by themselves systems elements with far reaching repercussions on the
aforementioned set of factors.
2. Economic assessments of impacts and consequences from changes in water
supply and demand systems face two major challenges. The first is the
simultaneous interaction of tools and policies with natural and technical
constraints on multiple layers, which requires the functional understanding of
relationships, constraints and realizable improvements. The second is the
identification, consideration and assessment of system impacts, such as
secondary impacts and intangibles, which may unfold on social, economic or
ecological levels.
Study Objectives
3. The main objective of the study is to bring economic analysis into Jordan water
policy and help prioritizing actions according to their cost-effectiveness. This
objective is achieved through the following tasks:

Reviewing and analysing the current water policy, status of water

resources and uses, and the existing constraints on the implementation
of todays water policy and strategies,

Assessing the future trends in water resources, available water supply,

and water demand,

Assessing two existing programs aiming at improving water efficiency,

Assessing the economical value of water for different sectors and uses,

Developing four alternative scenarios for water management and policy

in Jordan; these are business as usual, optimized efficiency, intra-sector
re-allocations and inter-sector re-allocations scenarios,

12

Carrying out an impact assessment for each scenario investigating the

environmental, social and economic impact,

Identifying and analyzing the pre-conditions for successful

implementation of each scenario in terms of: financing; mobilization of
stakeholders; role of different authorities; institutional setup; coherence
between sector and water policies; information and knowledge.

Current Water Resources

4. Fresh water resources in Jordan consist mainly of groundwater and surface
water. Treated wastewater and brackish water are other important non
conventional resources that help bridge part of the gap between supply and
demand especially in the agricultural sector.
5. There are fifteen surface water basins in Jordan the safe yield of which varies
significantly from year to year as a result of the variation in the rainfall. The long
term average estimated sustainable extraction rate of the fifteen surface water
basins in Jordan is about 692 MCM/year which includes both base flow and flood
flow.
6. There are twelve groundwater basins in Jordan. 275 MCM per year is an
acceptable number for the safe yield of renewable groundwater resources in
Jordan. Groundwater resources in Jordan are the main source for domestic
water supply.
7. The high water demand was met by over abstracting the renewable
groundwater aquifers. Over abstraction is estimated at about 55% of the safe
yield according to the 2009 water budget.
8. Additionally, there are other non renewable groundwater basins that are
exploited to meet the growing water demand. Those are the Disi basin and
portion of the Jafer basin with a safe yield ranged from 107-110 MCM as
estimated by BGR (2004) or 143 MCM as reported by the annual water budget
published by MWI.
9. Treated wastewater plays a major role in narrowing the gap between supply and
demand in the agricultural sector in Jordan. In Jordan there are more than
twenty wastewater treatment plants distributed spatially all over Jordan.
Treated wastewater from As Samra WWTP, which was 66.5 MCM in 2009, makes
about 75% of the treated wastewater effluent in the kingdom.
13

Current Water Uses and Demands

10. The domestic sector in Jordan receives water through the public water network
which is managed by the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ). The total domestic
water use in 2009 reached about 313 MCM.
11. Domestic water demand is function of population and per capita water demand.
Domestic demand projections are made based on population projections and on
per capita water demand projections. According to the NWMP the daily
domestic water demand per capita including the physical losses will increase
from 140 liter in 2008 to 160 liter in 2025. By the year 2025 domestic water
demand for Jordan is estimated at 484.22 MCM.
12. Touristic water is supplied by WAJ through the domestic water network and is
considered as part of the domestic water supply. In general touristic water
demand makes a small percentage of the domestic water demand. Touristic
water use reached around 10 MCM in 2007 and is expected to reach 29 MCM by
year 2025.
13. Irrigated agriculture is the largest water user in Jordan. In 2002, 64% of the
annual total water use was for irrigated agriculture (NWMP, 2004). During the
same year, irrigated agriculture used 50% of the pumped groundwater for all
purposes which summed up to 216 MCM for that year which makes about 79%
of the total renewable groundwater resources in Jordan. Total irrigation water
use reached in 2009 about 508 MCM where groundwater resources formulated
half of it. Jordans water strategy for the year 2022 estimated the irrigation
water demand to be 1000 MCM for 2010 and beyond.
14. Industrial water demand makes a small portion of the total water demand in
Jordan. However, due to expected economic growth in the future, industrial
water demand is projected to increase. Groundwater resources are the main
source of water for industry and formulate around 90% of total industrial water
use. Industrial water use reached around 36 MCM in 2009 and industrial water
demand is expected to increase as a result of economic and industrial growths
total to about 120 MCM in 2020 according to NWMP to about 156 according to
Jordans Water Strategy for 2022.
15. The natural sector includes demand for the following natural reserves: The Dead
Sea, Al Azraq Oasis, Wadi Mujeb and Wadi Wala. The Natural demand is
estimated based on historical flow for the Dead Sea and Al Azraq oasis. It is
important to address that in some cases the natural water demand is not
14

consumed where a significant part of it is reused again by other sectors such as

the case of Mujib and Wala Wadis. Total natural demand excluding the Dead Sea
demand is estimated at 55 MCM per year for Jordan. The natural demand is
assumed to be constant along the time horizon, as this demand is considered the
minimum amount required by nature to save these natures.
16. Water demand for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand is projected to
grow from 1.5 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 1.7 billion cubic meter for the year
2025. By the year 2015 the deficit will be about 376 MCM despite the
implementation of the Disi project. By 2025, total available water resources will
be 1.2 billion cubic meters which mean a deficit of about 0.5 billion cubic meters.
Strategies, Policies and Legislations
17. Currently, there are around 19 effective strategies, polices and legislations
documents. Legislations include Law, By-Law and regulation. These documents
are summarized in Table 22. MWI, WAJ, and JVA are the most important
institutions responsible for enforcing and/or implementing these strategies,
polices and legislations. Many other institutions are also playing an influential
role in regulatory and/or implementation of the different functions in relation to
water polices, strategies and legislations.
18. There are many constraints that are facing the water sector in Jordan and
creating difficulties in having effective implementation of the water policies and
strategies. These constraints can be grouped into legislative and institutional
constraints, financial constraints, socio-economic constraints and technical and
physical constraints. Detailed assessment of these constraints is summarized in
section 3.4.
Future Water Availability
19. Jordan has extensively utilized most of its conventional available water
resources. Therefore, there are limited conventional water resources that can be
utilized for future, while the emphasis will be on the development of the nonconventional water resources. Conveyance of Disi aquifer water, Red Sea Dead
Sea Water Conveyance (RSDSWC), Jordan Red Sea Project (JRSP), Other brackish
water desalination, Treated wastewater, Improve water supply efficiency,
Improve water use efficiency, better utilization of Al-Wehda Dam, and Rainwater
harvesting are all potential future water resources that will produce about 1382
MCM by year 2025. 68% of this additional water quantity will come through

15

water desalination projects. Table 24 and Figure 20 summarize the additional

future new water resources.
Polluted Water Resources and Future Trends
20. In a country with a severe water scarcity such as Jordan, water quality is a key
issue that might generate pressure on the water resource and thereby reduce
the fresh water available for use. water quality is declined through different
causes of pollution that could be mainly grouped into (Bakir, 2001):

Unsafe management of domestic wastewater: this includes disposal of

untreated or poorly treated wastewater, seepage from poorly constructed
and maintained onsite sanitation systems

Uncontrolled disposal of industrial waste into sewers, land and water bodies

Leaching from unsanitary solid waste landfills

Seepage from agrochemicals (excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides)

Over-abstraction or use of the existing water resources

21. The future trend of water quality in Jordan is dependent on Jordans ability to
remove or mitigate the causes of pollution. The following actions, plans,
phenomena and their expected impacts on water quality summarized below are
providing a broad outline of how the water quality in Jordan would look like in
future:

Reduce groundwater abstraction and water mega projects: With having Disi
water by mid 2013 and potentially the RSDSC around 2020, the overabstraction rates are expected to decrease and reduce the stresses on the
groundwater resources. However salinity issue will be difficult to mitigate, as
it would take long time to recover groundwater basins which most likely will
be difficult to happen while saving the basin from further deterioration is the
foreseen scenario.

Increase accessibility to wastewater network and improve effluent quality:

bacteriological contamination will be reduced but salinity will continue to be
high.

Climate change: the reduction in rainfall quantity and the increase in

temperatures are going to increase the stresses on the water resources. The
16

declining recharge rates will diminish the expected reduction in the

groundwater abstraction. Runoff quantities are expected to decrease and
thereby the contamination of surface water is expected to increase assuming
other factors do not change.

Industrial wastewater treatment: There are plans to construct industrial

wastewater treatment plants as the case of the industrial wastewater
treatment plant in Zarqa Governorate that are leaded and managed by Zarqa
Chamber of Commerce, which will serve the industrial sector around Zarqa
River. Thus, the contamination resulted from the industrial sector is expected
to be less in future due to the use of high technology of reverse osmosis units
and enforcing the environmental rules and regulations.

22. The combined effects of all the above actions, plans and phenomena is most
likely to worsen in the medium to long term situation, and result in impacts on
human health, income and agriculture outputs.
Assessment of the Factors Affecting Water Demand
23. Water demand is influenced by several confounding factors that are varied
overtime. Variation in the influential factors makes the estimation and forecast
of water demand uncertain. And demand uncertainty is at the root of the water
supply reliability problem. The ability to assess those influencing factors with
higher levels of confidence corresponds to lower levels of uncertainty. Situations
of uncertainty in estimating water demand are translated into situations of risk
for being incorrect or inaccurate. Such risks include designing over capacity
systems and supply excess water which means extra costs incurred, or the
opposite case where there is water deficit (less supply than the demand
requirement) that becomes a constraint on the economic activities.
24. Domestic Sector: Seven factors were assessed in terms of their influence on the
domestic water demand. Pollution growth, household income, continuity of
water supply (water supply) and level of economic activities have the highest
impact on the domestic water demand and are expected to change in future.
Water price was found to have low level of influence while the distribution of
urban and rural population has moderate influence on domestic water demand.
Seasonal variation has significant impact on domestic water demand in term of
demand fluctuation during the year but on the overall annual demand. Daily Per
capita domestic water demand measured as the total billed water is forecasted

17

using Equation 1 and annual cubic meter domestic water demand is estimated
using Equation 2.
25. Industrial Sector: production capacity and Technology ratio between water and
production volume are the key factors affecting the industrial water demand.
Each type of industry has its water requirement. The water use intensity
parameter is used to express the technology ration between water and
production volume, which is estimated by dividing the quantity of water use by
the production volume expressed in JDs. Industrial water demand can be best
forecasted if industrial production and water use intensity data is available for
each industry group using Equation 3. If only gross industrial production is
available then industrial water demand can be forecasted using Equation 4.
26. Tourism Sector:. Touristic water demand is a function of the water consumption
per hotel bed occupied which is also a function of the hotel classification and
location, water consumption per hotel bed not occupied and number of tourists.
Based on these factors, touristic water demand is best to be forecasted using
Equation 5.
27. Agricultural Sector: factors affecting agricultural water demand that can be
grouped into type of irrigation and cultivation technologies which has an
influence on the irrigation water requirement and irrigation water efficiency,
agricultural area represented by the planted area, cropping pattern and climatic
zone, water availability for irrigation which considered as constraint factor that
limits the irrigated lands, and water quality. Water prices factor found to have
low impact on the irrigation water demand as long as their low levels are kept.
Even doubling the irrigation water tariff is not expected to change the demand
on the irrigation water. Equation 6 is developed to estimate agricultural water
demand.
Climate Change Impact on Water Resources
28. Climate change is among the global environmental issues that has received most
attention across nearly all domains (political, media, scientific, and civil society).
Although Jordan does not contribute more than 0.1% to the causes of global
climate change, its effects on the country will be very severe.
29. The percent changes of annual mean runoff as a function of temperature and
precipitation changes are shown in Table 38. The largest change in annual runoff
in ZRW (reduced by 60% of the current level) occurred when combining a +3.5oC
with a 20% change in precipitation.
18

30. Climate change could affect groundwater resources by affecting recharge,

pumping, natural discharge, and saline intrusion. Some of these effects are
direct, and some are indirect. The potential sensitivity of aquifer recharge to
precipitation is summarized in Table 39. The increase in surface temperature and
reduction in rainfall might result in 32-57.5 percent reduction in recharge in an
aquifer located in Jordan.
31. Climate change will affect water scarcity and sustainable supply. It will:

Increase water shortages due to changes in precipitation patterns and

intensity. In particular, Jordan is expected to become substantially drier.
Reduced precipitation in some arid regions could trigger exponentially
larger drops in groundwater tables.

Increase the vulnerability of ecosystems due to temperature increases,

changes in precipitation patterns, frequent severe weather events, and
prolonged droughts. These factors, in turn, will further diminish the
ability of natural systems to filter water and create buffers to flooding.

Affect the capacity and reliability of water supply infrastructure due to

flooding, and extreme weather. Most existing water treatment plants and
distribution systems were not built to withstand expected increased
frequency of severe weather due to climate change. Current
infrastructure often does not have the capacity to fully capture this larger
volume of water, and therefore will be inadequate to meet water
demands in times of sustained drought.

Assessment of Existing Programs

32. Decentralization/Corporatization of Water and Sanitation Services: Jordan is
considered a leading country among the southern Mediterranean countries in
Private Sector Participation (PSP) and corporatization in the water sector, with
the aim of decentralizing the water utilities and improving efficiency. The
reduction in water losses and cost reduction are key indicators used to measure
the impact of corporatization. The cost effectiveness analysis is carried out based
on the benefit accrued from reducing water losses (incremental water saving)
and annual cost of corporatization project (initial cost distributed on 5 years at
10% discount). The results of the assessment are presented in Table 42. The
assessment showed that 2 out of the 5 corporatization initiatives are cost
effective. The results showed that establishing water companies is the most cost
19

effective then other forms. IRR for Miyahuna Company is considered high
because the corporatization project cost is relatively small to its size of
operation.
33. Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM): Participatory Irrigation Management,
PIM, is an important approach to improve the management efficiency of water
resources, water conveyance and its use. Such improvements bring about
savings in water use, reduce losses, boost productivity per unit water flow, and
reduce the cost of production. To assess the improvement of water services
under the WUA format four indicators are identified. These are: (a) the
percentage of operational water meters and (b) the joint control of water
consumption by farmers and the JVA, (c) the number of farm units where water
consumption deviates from target volumes, and, (d) the recurrence of repair and
maintenance incidents in the pressurized water conveyance system per year.

20

Background

Water use and water resource management in Jordan is, as in most countries in the dry
areas of the Mediterranean, a result of a complex set of interdependent factors, which
range from natural and technical constraints via conflicting needs and interests up to
institutional conditions and political agendas. Decisions and handling in water- related
issues on each stakeholder level are in fact not only an outcome of these
interdependencies but constitute by themselves systems elements with far reaching
repercussions on the aforementioned set of factors (Salman et al., 2006).
The fact, that existing sources of water in Jordan are hardly sufficient to cover existing
demands from different water consuming sectors - including explicitly water demands
of nature - and will be even less so in the future, requires systematic adjustments of the
current situation in water demand management. Main-stream adjustments in the past
helped to cope with scarcity situations in Jordan's past, but are not likely to provide
sustainable overall solutions for the future. Major steps in these adjustments comprised

Substantial investments in water catchment and transportation infrastructure, as

e.g. the construction of the Ghor Canal project and its attached network of dams
and pipelines since 1959,

The centralization of water services by the foundation of the Ministry of Water

and Irrigation (MWI) in 1988 and

Privatisation efforts of water and sanitation services under the auspices of the
Project Management Unit (PMU) within the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ)
since the latter part of the 1990s.

The requested sustainable overall solutions will thus have to be found by harmonizing
object-oriented changes in more than one of the elements that determine the
distribution and use of water. However, these changes will come only at costs for
investments, transition processes and probably compensations for the disadvantaged in
water re-distribution schemes. Economic reflections will thus play a prominent role in
any selection and combination of feasible tools and policies towards the achievement of
a robust balance between water demand from different sectors and the sustainable
water supply from available sources.
Economic assessments of impacts and consequences from changes in water supply and
demand systems face two major challenges. The first is the simultaneous interaction of
tools and policies with natural and technical constraints on multiple layers, which
21

requires the functional understanding of relationships, constraints and realizable

improvements. The second is the identification, consideration and assessment of system
impacts, such as secondary impacts and intangibles, which may unfold on social,
economic or ecological levels.
Both challenges demand for holistic approaches in economic analyses, which go beyond
the partial analysis of costs and benefits of a specific action. Thereby, an additional
precondition for the socially acceptable enforcement of such changes is the
understanding of the assessment process and the compliance by those layers of the
society, who are directly or indirectly affected by the consequences.

Objective and Scope of the Study

The main objective of the study is to bring economic analysis into Jordan water policy
and help prioritizing actions according to their cost-effectiveness. This objective is
achieved through the following tasks:
1. Reviewing and analysing the current water policy, status of water resources and
uses, and the existing constraints on the implementation of todays water policy
and strategies,
2. Assessing the future trends in water resources, available water supply, and water
demand,
3. Assessing two existing programs aiming at improving water efficiency,
4. Assessing the economical value of water for different sectors and uses,
5. Developing four alternative scenarios for water management and policy in
Jordan; these are business as usual, optimized efficiency, intra-sector reallocations and inter-sector re-allocations scenarios,
6. Carrying out an impact assessment for each scenario investigating the
environmental, social and economic impact,
7. Identifying and analyzing the pre-conditions for successful implementation of
each scenario in terms of: financing; mobilization of stakeholders; role of
different authorities; institutional setup; coherence between sector and water
policies; information and knowledge.

22

In addition, the study tackles a wide range of issues throughout the analysis including
pollution, climate change, water balances and economic analyses, participation, and
addressing uncertainty.

Current Water Situation

3.1 Current Water Resources

Fresh water resources in Jordan consist mainly of groundwater and surface water.
Treated wastewater and brackish water are other important non conventional resources
that help bridge part of the gap between supply and demand especially in the
agricultural sector. Below is a description of the different available water resources in
Jordan.
3.1.1 Surface water
There are fifteen surface water basins in Jordan the safe yield of which varies
significantly from year to year as a result of the variation in the rainfall. The long term
average estimated sustainable extraction rate of the fifteen surface water basins in
Jordan is about 692 MCM/year which includes both base flow and flood flow. Table 1
shows the long term average surface runoff in MCM for the fifteen surface water basins
in Jordan.
The two main surface water courses in Jordan are Zarqa River and Yarmouk River.
Yarmouk River drains the basaltic plateaus of the Hauran in Syria, an area of fair rainfall
and strong runoff. Yarmouk River is the largest tributary to Jordan River downstream of
Lake Tiberias. Much of the Yarmouk River water is diverted and used before it reaches
Jordan to satisfy municipal, agricultural and industrial needs. Yarmouk River watershed
lies in the Jordan Highlands, with its eastern headwaters extending to an area of about
1,800 m above sea level, where average annual rainfall is about 250 mm. The northern
headwaters drain areas bordering Mount Hermon (Jabel El Sheik), where average
annual precipitation exceeds 1,000 mm. However, the average annual precipitation
over the entire watershed is about 423 mm and potential evaporation is from 1,600 to
2,300 mm per year.
Typical monthly flows of Yarmouk River at Adasiyia are between 4 and 5 MCM during
the dry season and between 17 and 40 MCM during winter, (Multicultural working
group 1998). About 75 MCM per year of Yarmouk River water are diverted to KAC, 40
MCM of which are pumped to Zai water treatment plant which supplies west Amman.
The remaining 35 MCM are used for irrigation in the Jordan valley. The construction of
23

the unity dam at Yarmouk River was finished late in the year 2006. The dam is designed
to store 110 MCM, 30 MCM of which is dead storage. As a result of the fact that Jordan
is the downstream party, the water stored behind the dam in the last two years was
negligible compared to its storage capacity.
Zarqa River is the second largest tributary to Jordan River. Zarqa River watershed is the
most populated and industrialized area in Jordan. The catchment area of the Zarqa
River watershed is 3900 km2. The area of Zarqa River watershed has two main branches
which are the AmmanZarqa draining the higher rainfall areas of the Eastern
Escarpment of the Jordan Rift Valley and parts of the Jordan highland, and the Wadi
Dhuliel draining the more arid areas of the Jordan Highland and Plateau. The mean
rainfall for the watershed is 273 mm, and the median annual stream flow is 63.3 MCM
(Multicultural working group 1998).
As-Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) effluent which is the largest WWTP in
Jordan is discharged to the Zarqa River in addition to the effluent from other three
WWTPs which are Abu-Nsair WWTP, Jarash WWTP, and Baqqa WWTP. However, the
effluent from these three WWTPs is negligible compared to that of As Samra. Zarqa
River water is used for restricted irrigation within Amman Zarqa Basin (AZB) upstream of
King Talal Dam (KTD) and for unrestricted irrigation downstream of the dam in the
Jordan Valley after mixing with King Abdulla Canal (KAC) water which comes from
Yarmouk River. Zarqa River is perennial downstream of As-Samra WWTP and is
intermittent upstream of As-Samra WWTP. Typical monthly flows of 2 to 3 MCM during
the summer and 5 to more than 8 MCM during the winter were observed (Multicultural
working group 1998). Table 1 lists the surface catchments in Jordan along with their
long term average annual flow and Figure 1 shows the path of Wadis in Jordan

Table 1: Long term average surface runoff in MCM for the different surface catchments
in Jordan
Surface Water Basin
Yarmouk River (at Adasiya)
Jordan River Valley
North Rift Side Wadis
South Rift Side Wadis
Zarqa River
Dead Sea Side Wadis

Base Flow
(MCM/year)
105
19.3
36.1
24.8
33.5
54

Flood Flow
(MCM/year)
155
2.4
13.9
7.7
25.7
7.2

Total Flow
(MCM/year)
260
21.7
50
32.5
59.2
61.2
24

Wadi Mujib
Wadi Hasa
Wadi Araba North
Wadi Araba South
Southern Desert
Azraq
Sirhan
Hammad
Jafer
Total

38.1
27.4
15.6
2.4
0
0.6
0
0
1.9
358.7

45.5
9
2.6
3.2
2.2
26.8
10
13
10
334.2

83.6
36.4
18.2
5.6
2.2
27.4
10
13
11.9
692.9

Source: MWI files, and MEDITATE Project progress report (2004)

25

Figure 1: Hydrographic map of Jordan

3.1.2 Groundwater
There are twelve groundwater basins in Jordan. Table 2 lists these basins along with
their long term average safe yield. Table 2 shows that the total renewable yield of
groundwater basins in Jordan is estimated between 231 and 281 MCM per year. 275
MCM per year is an acceptable number for the safe yield of renewable groundwater
resources in Jordan. Groundwater resources in Jordan are the main source for domestic
water supply. Almost all Jordan receive water for domestic use from groundwater
sources except west Amman where the source of its water for domestic use is King
Abdulla Canal which receives its water from Yarmouk River, Mukheiba wells in addition
26

to Taiberia Lake. Due to the growing water demand, almost all groundwater resources
in Jordan are over exploited which led to the deterioration of their qualities. Figure 2
shows the different groundwater basins in Jordan with their safe yields and actual
abstractions for the year 2009 given in the white box. Figure 3 shows the spatial
distribution of the surface water catchments and their relative position to the
groundwater basins.
The high water demand was met by over abstracting the renewable groundwater
aquifers. Over abstraction is estimated at about 55% of the safe yield according to the
2009 water budget. Figure 4 illustrates the safe yield and the 2009 levels of over
abstraction for Jordans renewable groundwater basins.
Additionally, there are other non renewable groundwater basins that are exploited to
meet the growing water demand. Those are the Disi basin and portion of the Jafer basin
with a safe yield ranged from 107-110 MCM as estimated by BGR (2004) or 143 MCM as
reported by the annual water budget published by MWI.
Table 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their safe yields (BGR, 2004)
Basin
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Yarmouk
Amman Zarqa
Jordan Rift Side wadis
Jordan Valley
Dead Sea
Azraq basin
Hammad basin
Wadi Araba North
Wadi Araba south
Sirhan
Total renewable
11. Jafer
12. DISI
Total Non renewable

Safe yield MCM

30-35
60-70
28-32
15-20
40-50
30-35
12-16
5-7
4-6
7-10
231-281
7-10
100
107-110

27

Figure 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their estimated safe yields, (BGR, 2004)

28

Figure 3: Surface and groundwater basins in Jordan

29

Figure 4: Safe Yield and over abstraction from the renewable groundwater basins in
2009

3.1.3 Treated wastewater

Treated wastewater plays a major role in narrowing the gap between supply and
demand in the agricultural sector in Jordan. In Jordan there are more than twenty
wastewater treatment plants distributed spatially all over Jordan. However, the largest
one which treats a big portion of the wastewater generated in the largest two cities in
Jordan which are Amman and Zarqa is As Samra WWTP. The effluent of As Samra
WWTP for the year 2009 was 66.5MCM. As mentioned earlier, the effluent of As Samra
WWTP is discharged to Zarqa River where it is used for restricted irrigation upstream of
King Talal Dam (KTD) and for unrestricted irrigation downstream of KTD after mixing
with its water.
Treated wastewater from As Samra WWTP makes about 75% of the treated wastewater
effluent in the kingdom. Figure 5 shows the volume of the treated effluent from As
Samara WWTP for the period 2000 to till 2025. Volumes shown till the year 2009 are
based on measurements while volumes between 2010 and 2050 are projected based on
the National Water Master Plan WEAP. The sudden increase in the volume between
2009 and 2010 is due to the fact that the projected water demand for the years 2010
and beyond is higher than the actual water use for the year 2009. The sudden increase
30

in wastewater volume between 2013 and 2014 is due to the implementation of the DISI
project in 2013. The projected treated wastewater volume by the year 2025 taking into
consideration the DISI project is about 179 MCM. Figure 6 shows the projected
wastewater volume from As Samra WWTP till the year 2025 assuming the
implementation of the Red Sea Dead Sea Canal (RSDSC) project by the year 2025. The
projected wastewater volumes are based on the result that about 99.4 MCM of the
RSDSC water will be needed for Amman and Zarqa governorates by the year 2025 This
finding is based on giving the preference to the RSDSC water over the other
groundwater resources such as Amman Zarqa basin, groundwater resources from
southern Jordan and groundwater resources from Al Azraq basin.

Figure 5: Estimated effluent volume from As Samra WWTP till the year 2025 taking
into consideration the implementation of the Disi project

31

Figure 6: Estimated volume of As Samra effluent assuming the implementation of the

RSDSC project

3.1.4 Summary of water resources in Jordan

Figure 7 below summarizes the available fresh water resources in Jordan till the year
2025. This summary assumes an average surface water availability of 693 MCM which
can in reality vary from year to year depending on the hydrological conditions. It also
assumes that groundwater resources average is 275 MCM which again can vary from
year to year as a consequence to the variation in the hydrological conditions.
100 MCM from the Disi aquifer will be available by the year 2013 according to MWI
plans. However for the RSDSC project it was found out that 99 MCM are needed by the
year 2025 based on the estimated demand for Amman and Zarqa.

32

Figure 7: Summary of available fresh water resources in Jordan till the year 2025
including the RSDSC

3.2 Current Water Uses and Demands

This section aims to provide a description of the current water use and approached used
to estimate water demand for each sector mainly derived from NWMP. Water demands
in Jordan are estimated at five groups:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Domestic demand,
Touristic
Agricultural demand
Industrial demand, and
Natural demand.

3.2.1 Domestic Sector

The domestic sector in Jordan receives water through the public water network which is
managed by the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ). In fact, the water supplied to the
domestic sector is used by different types of customers including residents, small
industries, commercial, governmental institutions, and tourists. Actual domestic water
supply for the different governorates in Jordan between 2000 and 2009 is given in Table
3. These quantities include water losses both physical leaks and administrative losses.

33

Table 3: Domestic water supply for the different governorates in Jordan for the years
2000 till 2008 in MCM
Governorate 2000 2001 2002
Amman
91.3
93.6
94.1
Zarqa
31.8
32.7
34.4
Mafraq
30.1
18.9
16.9
Jarash
9.2
30.9
4.1
Ajloun
2.4
3.9
3.5
Balqa
4.2
3.1
18.3
Irbid
18.5
15.2
31.4
Tafila
16.3
5.9
3.0
Karak
3.2
9.4
11.2
Ma'an
5.6
2.6
8.0
Aqaba
15.2
7.7
14.7
Madaba
7.5
15.0
6.1
Total
235.4 239.0 245.6
Source: MWI files and annual reports

2003
106.3
37.0
17.3
3.8
3.4
18.1
31.6
3.1
10.2
7.1
15.0
5.9
258.7

2004
118.5
37.7
16.9
4.4
3.1
20.2
32.8
3.1
11.0
7.1
15.0
6.1
275.8

2005
119.9
38.4
17.5
4.1
3.6
21.3
34.4
3.5
11.0
7.1
15.0
6.2
282.0

2006
122.0
40.3
17.6
4.1
3.6
21.2
34.2
3.7
11.5
7.5
14.3
6.4
286.3

2007
124.8
44.6
18.2
4.2
3.8
21.7
36.0
4.0
12.9
8.5
15.4
6.9
300.9

2008
128.7
44.8
18.6
4.6
3.8
21.4
39.2
4.6
13.7
9.3
14.3
7.4
310.4

2009
129.0
46.7
20.3
4.6
3.9
23.1
37.0
4.9
14.6
9.1
12.4
7.8
313.4

Domestic water demand is function of population and per capita water demand.
Domestic demand projections are made based on population projections and on per
capita water demand projections. For the purpose of this study, population projections
are based on the population data available at the Water Information System (WIS) at
the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) and population growth rates published in the
Jordans water strategy. Population growth rates published in the Jordans water
strategy are given in Table 4. Population growth rates for the years 2000 and 2004 are
taken from WIS. Population growth rate for the year 2025 is assumed similar to the
growth rate for the year 2022.
Table 4: Population growth rates for Jordan
Year
Population growth rate %
2000
2.8
2004
2.8
2008
2.2
2010
2.2
2015
2.2
2020
2.0
2022
1.9
2025
1.9
Source: DOS
34

Per capita water demand for the years 2008 till the year 2022 are those published in the
Jordans water strategy. Water uses before 2008 are based on actual pumped water
which are taken from MWI files. Per capita water demand for the years 2008 till 2025
are given in Table 5. The demand values shown in the table below include the
administrative losses but do not include the physical losses.
Table 5: Per capita water demand (MWI, 2008)
Year
2008
2010
2015
2020
2022
2025

Water demand,
lit./c/d
140
145
158
153
160
160

Water demand,
m3/c/yr
51.1
52.9
57.7
55.8
58.4
58.4

Projected domestic demands for the different governorates are given in Table 6. Table
6 shows that by the year 2025 domestic water demand for Jordan is estimated at 484.22
MCM. Figure 8 shows the growth in domestic water demand in Jordan between 2000
and 2025.

Table 6: Projected domestic water demands in MCM for the different governorates in
Jordan
Governorate
Amman
Zarqa
Mafraq
Jarash
Ajloun
Balqa
Irbid
Tafila
Karak
Ma'an
Aqaba
Madaba
Total

2010
127.9
51.5
14.8
10.3
7.9
22.1
60.5
5.5
13.6
6.8
7.7
10.8
339.3

2015
155.3
62.5
18.0
12.5
9.6
26.8
73.4
6.7
16.6
8.2
9.3
13.1
412.2

2020
166.9
67.2
19.4
13.4
10.3
28.8
78.9
7.2
17.8
8.9
10.0
14.1
442.9

2022
181.4
73.0
21.0
14.6
11.2
31.3
85.8
7.8
19.3
9.6
10.9
15.3
481.4

2025
182.53
73.47
21.17
14.69
11.32
31.54
86.30
7.86
19.46
9.62
10.90
15.37
484.22

35

Figure 8: Domestic demand for Jordan for the years 2000 till 2025
3.2.2 Touristic Sector
Touristic water is supplied by WAJ through the domestic water network and is
considered as part of the domestic water supply as mentioned earlier. In general
touristic water demand makes a small percentage of the domestic water demand.
However, the touristic sector contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is
significant. In 2002 the contribution of the touristic sector to the GDP was about 10%
according to the Department of Statistics (DOS, 2002), and 10.6% in 2009 (Kreishan,
2010). Historical touristic water uses between the years 1996 and 2001 and for the
years 2005 and 2007 are given in Table 7. Data for other years are not available and
were not reported in the MWI annual report or in the NWMP. Total touristic demand for
2007 was taken from Jordans water strategy.
Table 7: Historical touristic water use per governorate in MCM
Governorate
Ajloun
Amman
Aqaba
Balqa
Irbid

19961
0
1.45
0.43
0.01
0.04

19971
0
1.42
0.49
0.01
0.04

19981
0
1.1
0.42
0.01
0.03

19991
0.01
1.28
0.53
0.08
0.09

20001
0.01
1.03
0.75
0.06
0.08

20011
0.01
0.84
0.74
0.04
0.08

20051

20072

2.79
1.27
1.1

36

Jerash
Karak
Madaba
Mafraq
Ma'an
Tafilah
Zarqa
Others
Total

0
0.01
0
0
0
0
0.01
1.97

0
0.01
0
0
0
0
0.01
1.99

0
0.01
0
0
0
0
0.01
1.59

0.01
0
0.02
0.02
0.02
0
0.09
2.17

0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.02
0
0.07
2.06

0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.02
0
0.07
1.83

0.03

0.33
5.53

10

NWMP (2004),
2
Jordans water strategy, gross demand including losses

Projected touristic water demands till the year 2025 are given in Table 8. Projected
demands for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 are taken from the NWMP (2004).
Demands for the years 2025 is projected based on the average demand growth rate
between 2010 and 2020. Touristic demand projections in the NWMP are based on the
number of bed units, per bed water demand and occupancy rate.

Table 8: Projected touristic water demands per governorate in MCM (including losses
and landscaping)
Governorate
Amman
Aqaba
Balqa
Madaba
Others
Total according to NWMP
Total according to Jordans
Water Strategy for 2022

2010
3.18
1.76
2.58
2.15
0.39
10.06

2015
3.6
2.24
6.27
3.66
0.41
16.18

2020
4.02
2.92
6.22
6.26
0.46
19.87

2025
4.52
3.76
9.84
11.08
0.50
29.70

13.00

21.00

26.00

29.00

Source: NWMP, 2004

3.2.3 Agricultural Sector

Irrigated agriculture is the largest water user in Jordan. In 2002, 64% of the annual total
water use was for irrigated agriculture (NWMP, 2004). During the same year, irrigated
agriculture used 50% of the pumped groundwater for all purposes which summed up to
216 MCM for that year which makes about 79% of the total renewable groundwater
37

resources in Jordan (NWMP, 2004). Table 9 shows irrigated areas, developed and
developable areas in the Jordan Valley between 1998 and 2020. This table shows that
there will be no growth in the irrigated areas neither in the JV nor in the uplands beyond
the year 2010. Table 10 summarizes the historical irrigation water use in the Jordan
Valley and in the uplands between 1996 and 2002 and irrigation water sources as well.
This table shows that the main irrigation water source in the Jordan Valley is surface
water followed by groundwater and treated wastewater, while in the uplands the main
water source is groundwater followed by surface water, while treated wastewater reuse
is minimal. This table also shows significant decrease in irrigation water use between
1996 and 2002 in the Jordan Valley which is partly due to improving irrigation efficiency.
It is also important to note that reduction in irrigation water use can be due to the
limited water availability, which witnessed obvious decrease during the last years as a
result of the climate change impact on the region, and due to the reallocation of fresh
water used in Jordan Valley to domestic water use mainly through Zai water system.
This system includes a water treatment plant and conveyance water system to Amman
and Balqa governorates constructed in 1998 and expanded in 2002. Changing the
cropping pattern, improving the irrigation efficiency, limiting the non-trees irrigation
and increasing the use of the treated wastewater in the Jordan Valley helped the
farmers to continue their agricultural activities. In the uplands irrigation water use
oscillated slightly around 300 MCM between 1996 and 2002. Sources of irrigation water
in the JV and in the uplands are shown graphically in Figure 9. 11 also summarized the
historical irrigation water use according to the water sources for the years 2003-2009.
Projected irrigation water demand by governorate up to the year 2020 is given in Table
12 and graphically in Figure 10. Irrigation water demand data at the governorate level
for 2025 is not available in NWMP. On the other hand, Jordans water strategy for the
year 2022 estimated the irrigation water demand to be 1000 MCM for 2010 and
beyond.Table 12 and Figure 10 show that irrigation water demand is not projected to
increase till the year 2020. Irrigation water demand is projected based on the irrigated
areas and on the water crop requirement. Irrigation demand is simply the summation of
the multiplication of cropped area by the crop water requirement planted in each area.

Table 9: Projected irrigated areas in the JRV and in the uplands in ha (NWMP, 2004)
Region
Uplands
JRV
Total

1998
59,576
25,391
84,967

2005
59,576
39,691
99,267

2010
59,576
42,291
101,867

2015
59,576
42,291
101,867

2020
59,576
42,291
101,867

2025
59,576
42,291
101,867

38

Table 10: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in the JRV and in the Uplands
in MCM (NWMP, 2004)
Region

Water Resource
Surface water
Groundwater
JRV
Treated WW
Total JRV
Surface water
Uplands Groundwater
Treated WW
Total Uplands
Total

1996
182.2
60.1
51.9
294.2
67.0
229.6
7.0
303.6
597.8

1997
194.5
50.7
52.7
297.9
70.0
215.5
8.3
293.8
591.7

1998
146.3
52.1
60.0
258.4
79.4
208.3
11.0
298.7
557.1

1999
126.6
51.2
59.0
236.8
72.8
205.2
11.0
289.0
525.8

2000
121.2
53.8
61.0
236.0
88.5
198.5
11.0
298.0
534.0

2001
94.4
46.8
60.0
201.1
86.6
186.4
13.5
286.5
487.6

2002
70.0
64.3
59.2
193.5
87.0
219.1
11.2
317.3
510.8

(a) Sources of irrigation water in the Jordan Valley

39

(b) Sources of irrigation water in the uplands

Figure 9: Sources of irrigation water in the JV and in the uplands between 1996 and
2002

Table 11: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in MCM for 2003-2009
Water Resource 2003
2004
Surface water 101.163 125.308
Groundwater
278.699 251.452
Treated WW
75.396 86.422
Total
455.258 463.182
Source: MWI Water budget, 2009

2005
2006
2007
2008
187.75 185.084 176.366 160.50
254.649 245.503 244.81 236.067
83.545
80.3
90.97
101
525.944 510.887 512.146 497.567

2009
159.877
245.755
102.36
507.992

Table 12: Irrigation water use and projected irrigation water demand per governorate
till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004) in MCM
Governorate
Ajloun
Amman
Aqaba
Aqaba_Valley
Balqa
Balqa_Valley
Irbid

1998
14.0
74.6
24.4
4.7
20.3
112.4
20.7

2005
13.3
74.5
24.4
4.1
20.1
273.9
20.5

2010
12.2
73.8
23.8
7.3
19.4
269.7
19.6

2015
11.1
73.3
23.2
7.2
19.2
256.6
19.0

2020
10.0
72.1
22.6
7.2
18.4
232.8
18.0

2025

40

Irbid_Valley
96.0
130.3
121.9
Jarash
33.2
32.9
30.7
Karak
38.2
37.8
35.4
Karak_Valley
27.9
27.9
33.6
Madaba
5.7
5.7
5.6
Mafraq
163.8
163.8
162.3
Maan
106.7
106.7
106.7
Tafilah
24.9
24.4
23.4
Zarqa
133.0
133.3
130.1
Total
900.5
1093.4
1072.3
a
Taken from Jordans water strategy for the year 2022

116.6
29.4
34.0
33.3
5.5
161.3
101.2
22.5
126.1
1039.7

104.8
26.8
31.3
32.6
5.4
159.6
98.2
21.0
122.1
982.7

1000a

Figure 10: Projected irrigation water demand by governorate

3.2.4 Industrial Sector

Industrial water demand makes a small portion of the total water demand in Jordan.
However, due to expected economic growth in the future, industrial water demand is
projected to increase. Table 13 shows industrial water use for the different big
industries in Jordan for the years 1998 and 2001. This table shows that the total
industrial demand for Jordan was about 32 MCM for the year 2001. Table 14 shows the
historical industrial water use according to the water resources. It can be noticed that

41

groundwater resources is the main source of water for industry and formulate around
90% of total industrial water use.
The industrial water demand is expected to grow in future particularly with the
Government of Jordan plans to utilize the oil shale and to generate electricity through
the nuclear power plants. On the other hand, there are some big industrial sites will
demand less water as the case of the phosphate mines in Wadi Al-Abyad and Hassa.
Table 15 illustrates the projected industrial demand regular growth rate. Table 16 shows
projected industrial demand for Jordan till the year 2020. This table shows that
industrial water demand will total to about 120 MCM as a result of economic and
industrial growths. Industrial demand projection in the NWMP was based on projecting
historical development in water use for certain industries on the future in addition to
considering what industries are planned to be implemented within the planning period.
For the purpose of this report, 4.5% annual growth in the industrial sector is assumed
beyond the year 2020. This rate is based on the historical growth rate for certain
industries based on the NWMP (MWI, 2004).

Table 13: Industrial water consumption for certain big industries in Jordan (NWMP,
2004)
Industry

Aqaba Thermal Power Station

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Fertilizer)
Arab Potash Company
Phosphate Mines / Wadi Al-Abyad
Cement Industries
Jordan Phosphate Mines (Shediya)
Jordan Phosphate Mines (Hassa)
Jordan Petroleum Refinery Co.
Al Hussein Power Station
Others
Total Jordan

Governorate

Aqaba
Aqaba
Karak
Karak
Mafraq, Balqa
& Maan
Maan
Tafilah
Zarqa
Zarqa
Jordan

1998
2001
MCM % of MCM % of
Total
Total
0.9
2.0
0.7
2.0
3.6
9.7
3.2
10.0
9.8
26.1 10.6 33.5
3.2
8.4
1.1
3.6
0.5
1.3
0.4
1.4
6.6
5.1
2.0
0.8
5.0
37.5

17.6
13.5
5.4
2.2
13.4
100

6.0
2.5
2.3
0.5
4.3
31.6

18.9
7.9
7.3
1.4
13.6
100

Table 14: Industrial water use and water resources for 2006-2009 in MCM
42

Groundwater
Surface water
Total

2006
34.4
4.0
38.5

2007
44.9
3.5
48.4

2008
34.3
3.9
38.2

2009
33.0
3.1
36.1

Source: MWI Water budget, 2009

Table 15: Projected industrial demand regular growth rate (MWI, 2004)
19982005201020152005 (%) 2010 (%) 2015 (%) 2020 (%)
Aqaba Industries (Thermal Power & Fertilizer)
8.1
6.2
5.7
5.2
Industry

Arab Potash Company

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.0

Phosphate Mines (Wadi Al-Abyad)

-15.2

-100.0

0.0

0.0

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Shediya)

2.0

10.8

4.9

-1.5

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Hassa)

-3.8

-100.0

0.0

0.0

Arab White Cement Industries Co.

7.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Al Hussein Power Station

-4.3

1.6

2.9

0.0

Jordan Petroleum Refinery Co.

2.6

9.6

0.5

0.5

Remaining Industries

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.5

Table 16: Industrial water use and projected industrial demand per governorate in
MCM till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004)
Governorate
Ajloun
Amman
Aqaba
Balqa
Irbid
Jerash
Karak
Madaba
Mafraq
Ma'an
Tafilah
Zarqa

2001
0.84
3.99
0.55
0.17
12.17
0.14
0.26
6.33
2.49
4.67

2005
0.00
1.21
10.96
0.94
7.97
0.00
17.97
0.24
0.42
8.15
3.86
7.78

2010
0.00
1.50
13.34
1.18
8.02
0.00
29.04
0.30
0.51
13.35
0.00
10.16

2015
0.00
1.87
16.56
1.46
8.10
0.00
42.53
0.37
0.61
16.98
0.00
11.49

2020
0.00
2.33
21.33
1.83
8.19
0.00
56.04
0.46
0.72
16.04
0.00
13.00

2025

43

Total
31.64
59.51
Total future demand according to
Jordans water strategy for 2022

77.40

99.97

119.94

101.00

130.00

156.00

163.00

3.2.5 Natural Sector

The natural sector includes demand for the following natural reserves: The Dead Sea, Al
Azraq Oasis, Wadi Mujeb and Wadi Wala. The Natural demand is estimated based on
historical flow for the Dead Sea and Al Azraq oasis. For Mujeb and Wala wadis, natural
demand was assumed to equal the base flow. It is important to address that in some
cases the natural water demand is not consumed where a significant part of it is reused
again by other sectors such as the case of Mujib and Wala Wadis.
3.2.5.1 The Dead Sea
The Dead Sea is a closed lake that lies in the Jordan Rift Valley. The main tributary to the
Dead Sea is the Jordan River. The Dead Sea is the lowest point on earth, its current
elevation is about 422 m below sea level. Over the last several decades the Dead Sea
level has fallen at an estimated rate of about 1.0 m per year. The area of the Dead Sea
watershed is 40,650 km2. Rainfall in the Dead Sea watershed varies from high of about
1200 mm per year in the north to less than 50 mm in the southern part in the Negev.
Evaporation ranges between 1300 and 1600 mm which varies with the salinity. Most of
the inflow to the Dead Sea comes from the high rainfall Jordan River watershed in the
north and the rift valley escarpment to the east and west of the Dead Sea.
The level of the Dead Sea has been monitored continuously since 1930. The observed
decline between 1930 and 1997 was 21 m. The surface area of the Dead Sea ranged
between about 1440 km2 at its historical level of 330 m below sea level to about 670
km2 at 410 m below sea level. Historical inflow to the Dead Sea is estimated at 1.213
billion cubic meters per year (Baker and Harza 1955) which has fallen recently to about
20 to 30 MCM per year. Main reasons advanced for the decline in the Dead Sea level is
the huge reduction in the inflow from the Jordan River and the Yarmouk River. The
blame of the reduction in the inflow to the Dead Sea is thrown on Israel, Syria and
Jordan. Israel draws about 600 Million cubic meters per year from Sea of Galilee which
is the main tributary to the Jordan River to its National Water Courier. Syria also draws
huge amounts from Yarmouk River estimated at 160 MCM per year before it reaches
Jordan. Additionally and as the majority of the watershed of this basin is located in Syria,
it tapped most of the surface water upstream of the Yarmouk River through
constructing many dams and allowing for uncontrolled groundwater abstraction which
reduces the springs discharge. Jordan also diverts about 70 MCM per year from
Yarmouk River to King Abdulla Canal for domestic supply to west Amman and for
44

agricultural use in the Jordan Valley. So the estimated natural demand for the Dead Sea
is about 1.20 billion cubic meters per year which is the difference between the historical
inflow and the current inflow to the river. However, this natural demand is of a regional
demand not specific to Jordan. One of the main proposed solutions to restore the Dead
Sea level is the Red Sea Dead Sea Canal project which is expected to bring about 850
million cubic meter of brine to the sea.
3.2.5.2 The Azraq oasis
The Azraq oasis is a natural reserve located near the town of Azraq in the eastern desert
of Jordan. The oasis is one of the most unique ecosystems in the region. It used to be
home for hundreds of thousands of migratory birds. Al Azraq was designated as a
Ramsar site in 1977 after the government of Jordan ratified the Ramsar convention. The
Azraq oasis was fed by springs which dried up in 1992 due to the over abstraction of
groundwater. The Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) established the Azraq Basin Water
Office to conserve the ground water in the basin and to prevent digging more wells.
Moreover, WAJ planned to pump about 1.5 MCM per year from artesian wells to the
wetland reserve to preserve what remains of the oasis. Table 17 gives actual water
pumped to the oasis by WAJ for the years 2001 till 2008. It is important to note that the
pumped water is sufficient to restore part of the oasis only. The demand to restore the
entire oasis is larger. The key to restoring the oasis is restoring the groundwater basin
by limiting the abstraction to the safe yield of the basin which is about 25 MCM which
will help elevate the groundwater level which will result in the two main springs in the
basin to start discharging water to the oasis again. Historical flow of the springs in Al
Azraq is about 10 MCM which is considered as the natural demand for the basin.
Table 17: Historical annual water supplied to Azraq Oasis
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Quantity (m3)
1,382,037
1,091,033
871,847
804,440
863,320
1,144,090
1,027,540
727,207

45

3.2.5.3 Wadi Mujeb

Wadi Mujib is a gorge in Jordan which enters the Dead Sea at 410 meters below sea
level. The Mujib Reserve of Wadi Mujib is the lowest natural reserve in the world. It is
located in the mountainous landscape to the east of the Dead Sea, approximately 90 km
south of Amman. The 220 square kilometers reserve was created in 1987 by the Royal
Society for the Conservation of Nature and is regionally and internationally important,
particularly for the bird life that the reserve supports. It extends to the Karak and
Madaba mountains reaching 900 meters above sea level in some places. This 1,300
meter variation in elevation combined with the valley's year round water flow from
seven tributaries, means that Wadi Mujib enjoys a magnificent biodiversity that is still
being explored and documented today. Over 300 species of plants, 10 species of
carnivores and numerous species of permanent and migratory birds have been recorded
until this date in Wadi Mujeb natural reserve. Some of the remote mountains and
valleys are difficult to reach which makes them safe havens for rare species of cats,
goats and other mountainous animals. Base flow for Wadi Al Mujeb is 38 MCM which is
considered the natural demand for Wadi Al Mujeb Natural reserve.
3.2.5.4 Wadi Wala
The course of Wadi Wala runs from its headwaters south of Amman in the Jordan
Highland and Plateau at about 700 m above sea level, to its confluence with Wadi Mujib
about 3 km from the Dead Sea and over 300 m below sea levelmore than 1 km lower
than the headwaters. The central and northern areas of the watershed comprise the
fertile plains around Madaba where the average annual rainfall is 300400 mm, and the
average annual potential evaporation is about 2,200 mm. In its lower reaches, Wadi
Wala is known as Wadi Heidan. The drainage area of Wadi WalaHeidan is about 2,000
km2 at its confluence with Wadi Mujib.
Flow of Wadi Wala is measured at Karak Road, where the drainage area is 1,800 km2.
Wadi Wala has fairly stable base flow that typically provides from 0.1 MCM per month.
3.2.5.5 Summary of natural demand

46

Table 18 summarizes the natural demand for Jordan. This table shows that the total
natural demand excluding the Dead Sea demand is estimated at 55 MCM per year for
Jordan. The natural demand is assumed to be constant along the time horizon, as this
demand is considered the minimum amount required by nature to save these natures.

47

Table 18: Summary of natural demand for Jordan

Location
Al Azraq oasis
Wadi Mujeb
Wadi Wala
Total
Dead sea
Total

Demand MCM
10
38
6.6
54.6
1200
1254.6

Note
Jordan

Regional demand
Regional and Jordan demand

3.2.6 Summary of projected demands for Jordan

Table 19 and Figure 11 summarize total projected demands for Jordan for the period
2010 and 2050 excluding natural demand. The table and Figure show that water
demand for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand is projected to grow from 1.5
billion cubic meters in 2010 to 1.7 billion cubic meter for the year 2025. However taking
the natural demand of 1.25 billion cubic meter into consideration makes the total
demand 2.75 billion cubic meter in 2020 which is projected to grow to 3.50 billion cubic
meter in 2050.

Figure 11: Total demand projection for all uses for Jordan in MCM

48

3.2.7 Summary of sources, projected demands and deficit for Jordan till the year
2025
Total resources, demands and deficit till the year 2050 are summarized in Table 20 and
Table 21 and in Figure 12 and Figure 13 for two cases which are the implementation of
the Disi project which represent the business as usual scenario and the case of
implementing the Red Sea Dead Sea Canal project by the year 2025. The initial results
of the WEAP model run for Amman Zarqa Basin developed for MWI showed that by the
year 2025 about 100 MCM from the RSDSC project are needed to satisfy the growing
domestic demand for the largest two cities in Jordan which are Amman and Zarqa which
is expected to grow to 178 MCM for the year 2050 to satisfy the same demands. These
results are based on giving preference to the RSDSC water over other groundwater
resources that supply Amman and Zarqa (AZB, groundwater resources south of Jordan
and groundwater resources from Al Azraq basin). It is important to note that the results
presented here are initial results and correspond to certain conditions of supply
preference for Amman and Zarqa. More thorough scenario analysis is needed for a
better understanding of the role of the RSDSC project on bridging the gap between
supply and demand in Jordan in addition to its impact on groundwater resources in
Jordan.
Table 20 and Figure 12 show that the deficit will grow in time between total available
resources and total demand despite the implementation of the Disi project. By the year
2015 the deficit will be about 376 MCM despite the implementation of the Disi project.
The deficit will grow to about 1002 MCM for the year 2050. Taking natural demand into
consideration, the deficit will be 1.586 billion cubic meter for the year 2015 which is
expected to grow to 2.212 billion cubic meter for the year 2050. These estimates
assumes that the there is no deficit in the natural demand for Wadi Mujeb and Wadi
Wala.
Table 21 and Figure 13 show that by implementing the RSDSC project, 427 MCM are
needed by the year 2025 to overcome the deficit and 515 MCM will be needed to
overcome the deficit by the year 2030. Starting the year 2035 a deficit of 45.6 MCM will
appear despite the implementation of the RSDSC to full capacity. The deficit will grow
to about 382 MCM by the year 2050.
Taking natural demand into consideration, it is important to note that implementing the
RSDSC will provide brine water to the Dead Sea which will help reduce the deficit in the
natural demand. Assuming that the brine volume equals the desalinated water, the
deficit in the natural demand is expected to be 0.35 billion cubic meters which is the
natural demand for the Dead Sea minus the brine volume of 0.85 billion cubic meters. It
49

is also important to note that implementing the RSDSC is expected to help revive the
Azraq basin as a result of stopping or reducing pumping from Al Azraq basin to Amman
which will consequently make natural flow available for the oasis in Al Azraq.
Table 19: Projected total demands for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand in
MCM
Demand
Domestic
Agricultural1
Industrial2
Touristic3
Total

2010
339.28
1000
101.00
13.00
1,453.28

2015
412.19
1000
130.00
21.00
1,563.19

2020
442.86
1000
156.00
26.00
1,624.86

2025
510.77
1000
163.00
29.00
1,702.77

1 No growth or decline in the agricultural demand is assumed beyond 2010

2 Jordans water strategy
3 Jordans water strategy

Table 20: Summary of projected sources, demands and deficit for Jordan till the year
2025 excluding natural demand and excluding RSDSC in MCM
Surface
Ground
Disi
Treated WW
Total sources
Total demands
Deficit

2010
692.9
275

2015
692.9
275
100

2020
692.9
275
100

2025
692.9
275
100

85.3
1053.2

123.4
1191.3

134.7
1202.6

149.2
1217.1

1,453.28
-400.04

1,563.19
-371.87

1,624.86
-422.30

1,702.77
-485.63

Table 21: Summary of projected sources, demands and deficit for Jordan till the year
2025 excluding natural demand and including RSDSC in MCM
Surface
Ground
Disi
RSDSC
TWW
Total
resources
Total demand
Deficit

2010
692.9
275
0
0
85.3

2015
692.9
275
100
0
123.5

2020
692.9
275
100
0
139.5

2025
692.9
275
100
427
177.7

1053.24

1191.37

1207.39

1672.63

1,453.28
-400.04

1,563.19
-371.82

1,624.86
-417.47

1,702.77
-30.14

50

Figure 12: Water resources and demands for Jordan without implementing the RSDSC

Figure 13: Water resources and demands in Jordan assuming the implementation of
the RSDSC project

3.3 Strategies, Policies and Legislations

Many laws were issued regarding water management since the establishment of the
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The first generation of laws and regulations focused on
the Jordan River Valley, and the first comprehensive law was enacted in 1959 by which
the East Ghor Canal Authority was created to manage water systems for irrigation
purposes in the Jordan Valley. Later in the same year, a separate law was created to
concern for the supply of municipal water to Jordanian inhabitants by the Central Water
51

Authority. In 1965, these two institutions were merged to form the Natural Resources
Authority. This is followed by other legislations in 1974 that created the Domestic Water
Supply Corporation, and in 1977 that created the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA)
(Wardam, 2004).
In 1983, the most comprehensive and drastic law emerged where the Water Authority
of Jordan (WAJ) was created to be responsible for all water management aspects, with
the exception of irrigation projects which remain to be under JVA. A further step was
taken in 1988 when the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) was created and brought
under its umbrella both the Water Authority and the Jordan Valley Authority (Wardam,
2004). The first water strategy was introduced in 1997. During the same and the next
year four policies were also developed. Those are Water Utility Policy, Groundwater
Management Policy, Irrigation Water Policy, and Wastewater Management Policy.
Currently, there are around 19 effective strategies, polices and legislations documents.
Legislations include Law, By-Law and regulation. These documents are summarized in
Table 22. These documents are classified according to their type and theme. The themes
are selected to identify the functionality of the document which include institutional,
wastewater, drinking water, water utility, water sector (for the multi-purposes
documents), irrigation and groundwater. A brief description of these documents is also
provided. The documents are ranked ascending from the elder to the newer.
It can be concluded from the description above about the institutional process
development that the most important institutions responsible for enforcing and/or
implementing these strategies, polices and legislations are MWI, WAJ, and JVA. These
three institutions are described further below:
1. MWI has been responsible for developing water policy and for water master
planning, as well as administrative restructuring of the water sector. In general,
MWI is the official body responsible for the overall water supply and wastewater
system, planning and management, the formulation of national water strategies
and policies, research and development, information systems and procurement
of financial resources. In particularly, the Minister of Water and Irrigation is
responsible for coordination among the MWI, the WAJ and the JVA.
2. WAJ was established as an autonomous corporate body, with financial and
administrative independence but linked with MWI through the Minister. WAJ is
responsible for the municipal water supply and wastewater services as well as
for the overall water resources planning and monitoring, construction,
operations and maintenance. The organizational structure of the Authority is
strictly centralized. The utilities in each governorate are responsible for
52

operating and maintaining the water and wastewater systems, dealing with
subscribers issues and different levels of projects supervisions. Most of them
enjoy some autonomy while keeping several tasks managed centrally including
financial and human resource affairs, capital investment, water quality
monitoring and planning. Recently by establishing Aqaba Water Company,
Miyahuna Company in Amman and Yarmouk Company in the Northern
Governorates, these utilities enjoyed higher levels of autonomy than the
remaining utilities.
3. JVA was established as the Jordan Valley Commission, but received its current
name in 1977. The area of JVAs responsibility extends from the Yarmouk River in
the North to the Qatar village in the South to the north of the Red Sea which is
shown in Figure 14. The Eastern extension of the area is limited by the 300 m
above mean sea level contour line north of the Dead Sea and the 500 m above
mean sea level contour line south of the Dead Sea. The Jordan Valley Authority
is a governmental organization responsible for the social and economic
development of the Jordan River Valley, including the development, utilization,
protection and conservation of water resources. The King Abdullah Canal
represents the backbone of the JVA water distribution system north of the Dead
Sea and is used to irrigate farm units.
Although these three water institutions have a central role in overall management of
the water sector, other ministries and institutions often play influential role in
regulatory and/or implementation of the different functions in relation to water polices,
strategies and legislations. The Jordan Institution for Standards and Metrology sets forth
standards related to the water sector, the Ministry of Health monitor the drinking water
and ensures that wastewater facilities comply with regulations, and the Ministry of
Planning reviews all Ministry of Water and Irrigation plans and liaises with potential
funding agencies. The Council of Ministers, part of the executive branch, is involved in
water policy through policy initiation, legislation and finance. Royal Courts, Donors,
Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, NGOs, private sector and Universities
are also playing vital and different roles in the water sector.

53

Figure 14: The Area of JVA Responsibility

54

Table 22: Existing planning, strategies, policies and legislations

Year Document Title

Type

Theme

Description

1988 Water Authority Law

Law No 18 of
1988

Institutional

It established the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) established in 1988 as an

autonomous corporate body, with financial and administrative independence. The law
describes the Mandate of WAJ, in which WAJ is fully responsible for providing municipal
water and wastewater services, and development and management of groundwater
resources. It also clarifies WAJ's relationship with the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.

1992 Ministry
of By Law
Water
and
Irrigation By Law
No 54 of 1992

Institutional

It established the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, in which it gives the full responsibility
for water and public sewage in the Kingdom as well as the projects pertaining thereto,
formulation and transmission of the water policy to the Council of Ministers for
adoption. The by-law gives the Ministry full responsibility for the economic and social
development of the Jordan Valley as well as carry out all the works which are necessary
for the realization of this object.

1994 Wastewater
Regulation Wastewater The regulation describes WAJs responsibility to provide sewage connections networks,
Regulation No
and the allocated fees for each. It also clarifies that any illegal action for connections are
66 of 1994
forbidden with their penalty fees.
1994 Drinking Water Regulation Drinking
Subscription
Water
Regulation No
67 of 1994

The regulation describes the subscription and un-subscription procedures that need to
be done, and the technical fees, insurance and tariffication of the drinking water. It gives
the Cabinet the right to issue decisions related to tariff modification.

1997 Water
Utility Policy
Policy of 1997

Water utility The policy was written after the water strategy formulation in April 1997. The policy
addresses the following themes: Institutional Development, PSP, Water Pricing and Cost
Recovery, HR, Water Resource Management, Water Quality and the Environment,
Service Levels, Public Awareness, Conservation and Efficiency Measures and Investment.

1997 Water Strategy Strategy

for Jordan of

Water sector The document helps describe Jordan's responsibility towards its water sector by the
following themes: resource development, resource management, legislation and
institutional, shared water resources, public awareness, performance, health standards,

55

1997
1998 Groundwater
Management
Policy of 1998

private sector participation, financing and research development.

Policy

Groundwater The objective of this policy is to outline in more detail the statements contained in the
document entitled: "Jordan's Water Strategy". The policy statements set out the
Government's policy and intentions concerning groundwater management aiming at
development of the resource, its protection, management and measures needed to
bring the annual abstractions from the various renewable aquifers to the sustainable
rate of each.

1998 Irrigation Water Policy

Policy of 1998

Irrigation

1998 Wastewater
Management
Policy of 1998

Wastewater The objective of this policy is to outline in more detail the statements contained in the
document entitled: "Jordan's Water Strategy". The policy statements set out the
Government's policy and intentions concerning wastewater management aiming at the
collection and treatment of wastewater from different locations. It also aims at the
reuse of treated wastewater and sludge.

Policy

Valley Law
2001 Jordan
Development
Law No 30 of
2001

2002 Underground
By law
Water Control
By-Law No 85 of
2002 and its
amendments of

The policy addresses water related issues of resource development: agricultural use,
resource management, the imperative of technology transfer, water quality, efficiency,
cost recovery, management and other issues. Linkages with energy and the
environment are accorded a separate chapter. The policy is compatible with the Water
Strategy and is in conformity with its long-term objectives.

Institutional

The law for development of the water resources of the Valley and utilizing them for
purposes of irrigated farming, domestic and municipal uses, industry, generating
hydroelectric power and other beneficial uses; also their protection and conservation
and the carrying out of all the works related to the development, utilization, protection
and conservation of these resources. Jordan Valley Development Law No19 of 1988
amended by this law.
Groundwater The by-law describes and entails the different procedures that are needed for
controlling groundwater resources in Jordan. It helps explain the utilization and
extraction quantity allowed. Moreover, conditions about licenses and their cost for
borehole drilling, and water extraction fees are included in this regulation.

56

2003, 2004 and

2007
2003 JVA
Strategy Strategy
Plan for 2003 2008

Water sector The document helps describe (Jordan's Valley Authority) responsibility towards its
water sector by the following four major goals (water resource management and
development, water supply and distribution, land development and management,
organizational performance improvement and development). Each goal has set
objectives and later strategies that JVA should take responsibility of.

2004 National Water Water

Master Plan of master
2004
plan

Water sector Without water, there is no life. Individuals, private companies and public institutions are
taking great efforts to make water useable for their needs - be it drinking water,
pastoral needs, industries, agriculture or others. In order to coordinate these activities,
and to safeguard that the resources are also available for future generations, a common
planning framework is needed. This framework is given by the Water Master Plan. The
master plan will not be a static printed document but a Digital Water Master Plan based
on data and information from the Water Information System (WIS).

Policy
2008 Irrigation
Equipment and
System Design
Policy of 2008

Irrigation

This policy statement follows from longer-term objectives outlined in the Water
Strategy and supplements the Irrigation Water Policy and the Irrigation Water Allocation
and Use Policy by establishing a policy on irrigation equipment and system design
standards. The policy addresses the following themes: defining and updating
equipment standards, raising farmers awareness of standards, testing and enforcement
of standards, training and certifying drip system designers, and institutional
responsibilities.

2008 Irrigation Water Policy

Allocation and
Use Policy of
2008

Irrigation

This policy statement follows from longer-term objectives outlined in the Water
Strategy and elaborates on priorities specified in the Irrigation Water Policy. As such, it
comprises an updating and extension of selected elements of the irrigation water policy.
In particular it consolidates and elaborates elements of that policy relating to on farm
water management, management and administration, water tariffing, and irrigation
efficiency. The policy addresses the following themes: defining and updating crop water
requirements, water allocation and billing practices, building farmers water

57

management skills, using reclaimed water, measuring deliveries and delivering water to
groups.
2008 National Water Policy
Demand
Management
Policy of 2008

Water
Water Demand Management Policy is intended to result in maximum utilization and
Demand
minimum waste of water, and promote effective water use efficiency and water
Management conservation, for social and economic development and environmental protection.

2008 Water Authority Strategy

Strategic
Plan
2008-2012

Water sector The strategic plan analyzes the internal and external environment of WAJ then identifies
the main challenges that face WAJ. The strategic plan sets 6 objectives and proposes 4
strategies and action plan to achieve them. It uses the balance score card to monitor
and follow up the progress in achieving the objectives

2009 Jordan's Water Strategy

Strategy 20082022: Water for
Life

Water sector This is the most recent strategy that specified drinking water as the main priority in
water allocation, followed by industry and agriculture. The new water strategy was
distinguished by the participatory approach and it is based on vision driven change
efforts. It includes specific actions and plans with targets to be achieved. Furthermore,
the strategy emphasis on the two mega projects; the Disi water conveyance and the
Red-Dead Canal, the reduction of the Non-Revenue for Water (NWR), on having cost
reflective tariffs and restructuring the institutions of the water sector.

58

3.4 Constraints on Implementing Water Policy and Strategies

There are many constraints that are facing the water sector in Jordan and creating
difficulties in having effective implementation of the water policies and strategies. It is
important to address that these constraints are interrelation. These constraints can be
grouped into the following themes:
I. Legislative and institutional constraints
a. Overlapping of mandates and lack of coordination
There is lack of separation between powers and different functions in terms of execution of
water services, planning and surveillance of law compliance. In particular, there are overlaps
among the water sector organizations; MWI, WAJ and JVA and between the water sector
organizations and the ministry of Environment in terms of regulation, Ministry of agriculture
in terms of irrigation water and expanding the agricultural land, and Ministry of
Municipalities in terms of roads recovery after projects execution. Furthermore, there is
overlapping of responsibility in land acquisition management and development between JVA
and Department of Land and Survey and Development Zones Commission. In addition, there
is weak coordination in the integrated planning approach between the water sector
organizations and other organizations related to infrastructure and economic development.
There is an increased need for proper communication both among sectors and between
initiative levels (from government to the grassroots) in order to coordinate programs and
create a stronger, comprehensive plan for addressing water problems (Denny et al., 2008).
The new water strategy for 2008-2022 addressed and provided some solutions for this issue.
However, the actions on the ground since Feb 2009 (the date of its adoption) are still limited
and insufficient.
b. Centralization and decentralization issue
During the 1970s the water sector was managed by decentralized institutions. Then during
1980s, WAJ and JVA were established with centralized management. In 1992, MWI was
established with more centralized functions. Thus, the water administration and distribution
has been centralized with the federal government making decisions regarding infrastructure,
access to water, quality standards, and even information dissemination.
In the last decade, an inverse movement has been started by introducing the Water Users
Associations (WUAs), the Private Sector Participation (PSP) and the corporatization. Such
examples include the relatively new trend of Water Users Associations in JV which gives
responsibility back to the people. These groups are working to maintain the irrigation lines,
report system leakages, control theft and vandalism, manage the intakes, and eventually
participate in irrigation scheduling. The groundwater forum in highland is recently
introduced in a similar principle of the WUAs. Management contract of LEMA in Amman, the
PSP in Madaba and the managing consulting in NGWA are different PSP approaches used
59

during the last 10 years. More recent is the corporatization approach by establishing Aqaba
Water Company in 2004 which is fully independent institution, Jordan Water Company
(Miyahuna) in Amman in 2007 which is an operational and maintenance company and Al
Yarmouk Water in the Northern Governorates in 2010. These private corporations are
interested in reducing cost and maximizing profit, and in the example of LEMA, efficiency has
improved in water and wastewater services in Amman in part by reducing unaccounted-for
water. It is important to address that the private company administers the water system
must act according to the contractual constraints from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.
The fluctuation between centralization and decentralization management in the water
sector addresses the inability to realizes when to use centralized or decentralized
management and for which functions. However, the current trend is showing that the water
sector is closer to the right track in centralizing certain functions such as planning and
regulation, and decentralizing other functions such as operation and maintenance (O&M)
functions according to the new water strategy of 2008-2022. The current trend in
decentralizing the O&M functions is also supported by improved productivity gained with
the recent corporatization examples in Aqaba Water Company and Miyahuna.
c. Enforcement of legislation
The WAJ law No. 18 of 1988 and its amendments have various penalties on the illegal use of
water and sewer network, damaging any of WAJs assets, polluting any water resources,
drilling unlicensed groundwater wells, and carrying any work related to water or wastewater
without obtaining the licenses, permits or approvals required. These penalties ranged from
sentencing the person who violates the law to no less than six months, and no more than
two years or to a fine no less than JD 100 and no more than JD 5000, or both punishments.
However, the enforcement of applying the law and such penalties is still weak particularly
when it comes to the illegal use of water which accounts for the high NRW ratios. In practice,
compliance with water regulations is imperfect, especially in rural areas in the south and
east of Jordan.
The available tools to enforce the law is limited where there is no specialized courts for
solving the disputes related to the water sector, no clear procedure for monitoring and
following up, and the applied penalties might be insufficient and requires revision to match
the size of violation with the appropriate punishment.
d. Weak organizational capacity
The organizational capacity of the water institutions is weak and deteriorating due to many
reasons including the brain drain of professionals, the weak management skills of middle
management staff, the ineffective capacity building programs, the unsustainable
management of recourses, the turnover and instability of the top management in the water
sector, and the miss-match between the human resources available in the water institutions
and the qualifications needed by these institutions, lack of documentations and follow up of
60

processes and procedures, no outcome and impact evaluation of executed projects and
activities, issues in data flow and its accuracy, lack of public participation and involvement,
and the lack of organization and delegation of authority. These reasons are interrelated
where in many cases the water sector invested in building the capacity of its staff but there
was no proper way to maintain the trained staff, as in many cases those skilful staff are paid
higher salaries in the local and regional markets as witnessed during the last years. Changing
the top management frequently in the water affected on the sustainability of the
management processes and follow up.

II. Financial constraints

a. Low cost recovery level
The low level of cost recovery and high level of subsidy particularly for domestic and
irrigation water resulted in a financial crisis for the water sector with more than JD 1 billion
of accumulated deficit of WAJ as an example. In 2008, WAJ only covered 110% of its O&M
costs which is dropped from 133% in 2005. The reduction in and the insufficient amount of
revenue collected resulted in lack capital investment and ineffective daily operations and
maintenance. One of the main causes of this situation is the existing tariff that does not
address well the actual cost of service provision.
b. Insufficient financing and aids and loans dependence
Implementing water sector policies and strategies require huge capital investments to
upgrade and rehabilitate the existing systems and expand services to the newly developed
areas. Figure 15 shows the increasing trend of capital investments in the municipal water
and wastewater infrastructures implemented by WAJ. The figure also illustrates that there is
a clear fluctuation in the capital investment values mainly due to the finance availability.
Figure 16 explains this further, where it can be noticed that the sources of financing varied
significantly during the last 10 years accompanied with a general trend of a reduction in the
foreign assistance provided by donors starting from 2005 but with an increase in the
Government of Jordan (GoJ) support. Thus, the water sector organizations in Jordan are
getting more dependent on the aids provided by donors and central government. This
fluctuation in the capital investment from year to year increases the pressure on having
sustainable investments.
This is accompanied with a low and declining cost recovery levels during the last year, leaded
WAJ to obtain more debts guaranteed by the GoJ to cover its growing operational expenses
and capital investments. Thereby, the debt of WAJ grew significantly from JD 272 million in
2004 to JD 450 million in 2009, which is almost equivalent to 65% increase over 5 years.
Figure 17 shows the pattern WAJs debt over 2004-2009. Moreover, the overall debt of WAJ
is expected to reach around 630 million JD by the end of 2010 (an increase of around 40%

61

from 2009 debt), which alerts by taking place a sequential rising of debt value that will
mostly go beyond the control of WAJ.
180
160
140
Million JD

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure 15: Historical capital investments in the municipal water and wastewater
infrastructure

100%
90%

7%
19%

29%

21%

22%

80%
70%
60%
50%

33%

19%
0%

0%

0%

0%

47%

52%

51%

56%

21%

15%

0%
26%

8%

0%

40%

20%

12%
0%
21%

30%

48%

43%

21%

27%

15%

30%
47%

37%

13%

58%

8%
3%

19%

0%
32%

58%

66%
44%

40%
30%

10%
0%
1999

2000

2001

2002

WAJ Source

2003

2004

GoJ Support

2005
Loans

2006

2007

2008

2009

Grants

Figure 16: Distribution of financing sources of the capital investment of WAJ

62

Internal loans

External loans

Total loans

Debt growth

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

Debt growth (%)

Loans in million JD

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

0%
-5%
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Figure 17: Historical debt of WAJ

c. Lack of financial incentives

The performance of the water organizations is varied largely and there are no financial
incentives for those organizations/utilities that are performing better than others. With the
independency of several water utilities on WAJs centralized budget and JVA and MWI on
the central budget of the Government, there are no financial incentives for these
organizations to implement effectively the water policies and strategies.
III. Socio-economic constraints
Rapid growth of population
Although, the rate of growth of Jordans population dropped from more 4% during the 1980s
to around 2.2% annually in 2009, such rate is still considered high compared to the
developed countries and creates large pressure on the existing infrastructure.
Social values and public perception
Attitudes toward water in Jordan are shaped by religion, with several verses in the Quran
speaking to the blessing of water. Islamic tradition prevents water from being sold unless
there has been an effort to provide it, and private spring owners cannot prevent others from
using it for themselves or their livestock. More recently, religious leaders decreed that
purified wastewater was fit for drinking, which made it socially feasible for political leaders
to incorporate the practice (Haddadin, 2006). This social value allows for some people to use
water illegally as they believe that water should be provided for free.
In addition, some of the surveys carried out to measure the level of satisfaction with the
water quality indicated low levels of satisfaction. WAJs Strategic plan for 2008-2012
indicated that the level of satisfaction of citizen in 2005 is of an average of 5 on a scale of 110 for most of the indicators used to measure the customer satisfaction (WAJ, 2007). OMS
63

carried out two surveys to measure customer satisfaction in different governorates in 2007
and 2008. The results showed that around 50% of customers are using the tap water for
drinking purposes, however there were significant variation in satisfaction levels from place
to other with a range from 9% in Fuhais city in Balqa governorate to 88% in Dhiban city in
Madaba governorate (OMS, 2007 and 2008). Moreover, the trust in the government and its
water institutions is decreasing which creates more pressure on the ability of the water
institutions to impose certain actions without having public complaints as the case of trying
to increase water tariff, which is not achieved till now although the government planned to
do that.
The influence of tribal and wasta (the public term used to refer for giving weight to tribal
and familial connections) have also been manifested in very concrete ways on the ground.
Powerful tribes are able to build and maintain links to the government and thereby actively
lobby in the interests of their group. Such interests include hiring practices, ability to use
water illegally, not being compliance to certain law as happened to the case of private
irrigation wells in Disi aquifer, etc. (Denny et al., 2008).
Lack of economic incentives
There are no economic incentives for decision making process particularly in terms of
planning, priority investment identification and licensing. Although, residential and irrigation
water tariff is increasing block that provides some economic incentives for water consumer
to conserve water but there is good room for providing more economic incentives specially
for the agricultural sector. In addition, the penalties applied on the illegal use of water are
insufficient to enforce the law.
IV. Technical and physical constraints
Water scarcity
Jordan is considered as the third to fourth poorest country in its water availability per capita
and is characterized by flocculated rainfall. The recent trend of rainfall amount indicated a
noticeable reduction during the last years. These constraints are putting more pressure on
Jordan to implement its water strategy and having more reliable water services that can
meet the increasing demand of inhabitants and economic activities in Jordan. This situation
resulted in adopting the rationing of household water supplies that creates many
malfunctions in the system including the system vulnerability to compromise by biological
pathogens and pollutants, faster deterioration of the water network and more energy
consumption.
Insufficient preventive maintenance for the water and wastewater systems
The improper prioritization of expenditures, the limited financial resources and lack of the
applying the best operation and maintenance practices resulted in having insufficient
64

preventive maintenance of the water and wastewater systems, which led to deteriorating
these systems faster than the international standards. This leaded to poor water and
wastewater services in some areas and water quality problems such as the case of
Manshiyet Bani Hassan in Mafraq Governorates occurred in 2007.
Limited use of technology to reduce water consumption
One area of important focus of Jordans water strategies, policies and legislations is water
demand management and reduce water consumption. Using advance technology for
production in industries and agricultures as well as in the household plumbers is proven to
play a vital role in reducing water consumption and increase water productivity. The lack of
how to utilize and the knowledge about such advance technology is a major constraint that
limits the advancement in improving water demand management.

Future Trends in Water resources and Demand

4.1 Water Resources

4.1.1 Future Water Availability
Jordan has extensively utilized most of its conventional available water resources. The
current groundwater abstraction rates are around 500 MCM annually with exceeds the safe
yield by around 180%. The total average annual runoff is around 555 MCM where around
half of this quantity is utilized with the total dams capacity of 315 MCM. Therefore, there are
limited conventional water resources that can be utilized for future, while the emphasis will
be on the development of the non-conventional water resources. The following is a
description of the main future water resources:
1. Conveyance of Disi aquifer water
The conveyance of Disi water will provide around 100 MCM annually of drinking water to
Amman and other middle and northern governorates, which is expected to happen by the
second half of 2013. The Disi water has been used mainly for irrigation purpose (around 40
MCM annually) and to supply Aqaba city with drinking water (around 20 MCM annually).
However, water that is being used for irrigation will be stopped before start supplying the
100 MCM. This source is considered to be almost the major remaining conventional water
source that can be utilized for drinking water. Disi Aquifer is considered a non-renewable
source with very limited recharge rates. The Conveyance system will be built on the BOT
base and the capital cost is estimated at around JD 770 million.
2. Red Sea Dead Sea Water Conveyance (RSDSWC)

65

The current cost estimation of the RSDSWC is around 6.4 billion USD including the
transmission lines to Amman component. The overall desalinated quantity is 850 MCM
annually, the Jordans share of it is 560 MCM. The construction duration of the project varies
depending largely on the conveyance type selected, and therefore the project construction
duration is expected to take from 7 to 10 years. According to the Jordan's Water Strategy
2008-2022, the RSDSWC will be operational by 2022.
3. Jordan Red Sea Project (JRSP)
The GoJ introduced JRSP on late 2009 due to the urgent need to have additional water
supply available in a quicker track than the REDSWC. Thus, the GoJ established JRSP
company to manage this project that aims to provide additional water supply and to have a
comprehensive economic development program. The project is planned to be implemented
on 5 phases extend over 45 years that will start providing fresh water supply in 2018 as
shown in Table 23.

Table 23: JRSP phasing schedule and water flows

Project Construction Sea water Extraction
phase
period
(MCM/yr)
I
2011-2018
400
II
2019-2025
700
III
2028-2035
1,070
IV
2038-2045
1,800
V
2050-2055
2,150
Source: NWMP team in MWI

Fresh
water
delivery ( MCM/yr)
210
370
560
720
930

Dead sea discharge

(MCM/yr)
190
330
510
1,080
1,220

4. Other brackish water desalination

In Jordan, there are two main sources available to be desalted: the Aqaba Gulf and the
brackish deep groundwater or mineral springs flowing in some basins (Jaber and Mohsen,
2001). Around 250 MCM is the available estimation of the quantity of the brackish deep
groundwater (CEC, 2010). Currently, Abu Ezzeghan desalination plant produces around 1112 MCM annually. The most recent large major desalination plant is Zara Main constructed
in 2006, which produces around 36 MCM/year. Additionally, there is several small to mid
size water desalination plants operate in Jordan that produce no more than 10 millions of
cubic meter per year, these include desalination plants include Karamah Dam with a capacity
of 1 MCM/year, Faisal nursery wells with a capacity of 2.3 MCM/year and Bereen wells with a
capacity of 1.8 MCM/year.
In future and in addition to the RDSDWC project, there are plans to expand constructing
small to mid size desalination plants with a potential of increasing annually the desalinated
quantity of water by around 1 MCM for the coming 5 years. Additionally, there is plans in
66

Aqaba to develop a desalination plant in two phases, each with a capacity of 5 MCM per
annum with a total cost estimated at US$ 50 (MoPIC, 2010)
5. Treated wastewater
In 2008, around 100 MCM of treated wastewater efficient was reused for irrigation and
industrial purposes. Such quantity formulated around 10% of the total water resources. The
Jordan's Water Strategy 2008-2022 estimated that the treated wastewater to be around 247
MCM by 2022, of which 220 MCM to be used for irrigation purpose and 27 MCM to be used
for industrial purpose. This will increase the contribution of the treated wastewater into 15%
of the total water resources. The estimation is based on a set of targets including serving the
major cities and small towns with adequate collection and treatment facilities, introducing
the decentralized (local) plant, major industries and mines to have wastewater treatment
plants, using of gray water in the new high-rise buildings, and producing treated wastewater
in compliance to the international standards to be used as a safe non-potable water source.
6. Improve water supply efficiency
The overall Un-Accounted for Water (UFW) of the municipal water sector is reached around
140 MCM in 2009, which is equivalent to around 43% of total water supply. However, UFW
varies among Jordans governorates where the highest and the lowest value are recorded in
Mafraq and Aqaba Governorates with 63.5% and 21% respectively as shown in Figure 18. In
general, there is no accurate estimation of how much of the UFW is considered as physical
losses. MWI roughly estimates that 50% of the UFW is physical losses and the remaining 50%
is considered to be administrative losses resulted from the illegal use of water, meter
reading errors, and data processing. By other meaning, around 21.5% of total water supply is
a physical losses and a same ratio is administrative water losses. There are many causes for
such high water loss ratio such as the poor water network condition, the lack of having
isolated water supply zones, the rational water supply, the cultural behavior of using water
through illegal connection and human errors. The administrative losses are consumed by the
customers, however good portion of it can be saved through more efficient use of water
(assessed further in the next point). The physical losses can be saved through improving the
water supply system, in which 5-15% of physical water losses cannot be saved. In theory and
assuming that the whole water supply systems in Jordan are efficient with physical water
losses of 10% will result in saving around 37 MCM based on 2009 water supply quantity.
Reaching to such saving will require huge investments in restructuring and rehabilitating the
existing water network systems. Such ongoing and planned major projects include the
following:
-

Restructuring and rehabilitating the water networks in Zarqa governorate project

funded by MCC with a budget value of 102.6 million USD. The project is expected to
start on 2011 and finish in 2016.

67

Rehabilitating and upgrading the tertiary and secondary water networks in Amman
and the implementation of the investment plan of JD 150 million on 2008-2015.
Improving water systems Maan and Tafileh
Water losses reduction and network rehabilitation projects in NGWA
Water losses reduction project in Balqa, Madaba and Irbid

Figure 18: Un-accountant for water ratios in Jordans governorates for year 2009
In the Jordan Valley, the average amount of UFW during the last 10 years is estimated at 34
MCM annually (CEC, 2010). Assuming an ability to reduce this ratio by 75%, then around 25
MCM can be saved annually. Furthermore, there is good potential to save additional water
quantities used in the highlands for irrigation. However, there are no estimates available on
the water losses in the highland water systems.
Thus, the overall water saving from improving the water supply efficiency is estimated to be
around 62 MCM in 2009. This quantity will be larger in future as the municipal water supply
quantity is going to grow. In 2022, the Jordans population will reach around 7.8 million
inhabitants. Assuming a water supply of 150 lpcd, this will result in supplying around 427
MCM. A targeted physical water loss of 10% compared with current loss of 21.5% will result
of saving around 49 MCM.
7. Improve water use efficiency
The improvement of the water use efficiency implies that the water users consume less
water quantity than they were previously consuming. Thus, the improvement of water use
efficiency will not in fact produce new water supply rather than it allows reallocating the
saved water into other users.
The recently conducted study by CEC tried to assess the saving resulted from efficient water
use, however there was not concrete estimation. The most saving is expected to come from
the agricultural sector then by the domestic sector. The study addressed that a significant
68

amount of irrigation water is wasted due to inappropriate location of agricultural operations

in desert areas with high evaporation rates and high percolation of water in the sandy soil.
Current on farm water use efficiency is between 40-60% depending on the irrigation system
used (surface or drip irrigation) and the area where irrigation takes place (i.e. irrigation
water efficiency decreasing as moving from north to southern part of Jordan Valley) (as
reported by JVA officials). According to the historical data, it has been noticed that the best
cases, irrigation water use efficiency cannot be improved more than 1-5% annually according
to the geographical area. Assuming an average of on farm water use efficiency of 50% of the
whole irrigation water (around 500 MCM) and an average improved of about 3%, this makes
about 7.5 MCM of annual water savings.
The majority of the residential customers are considered to be lower consumers with around
80% of household is consuming less than 60 m3 per quarter, which is equivalent to around
110 lpcd assuming an household size of 6 persons. Figure 19 illustrates the distribution of
residential customers against their water consumption per quarter. The remaining 20% of
customers who can be classified as large consumers are consuming around 40% of the water
consumed by residents. This amount is estimated to be around 60 MCM per year. By
assuming that more efficient use of water by the large consumers can save around 50% of
consumed water, then the estimated overall saving can reach around 30 MCM annually
based on 2008 water billing data.
In addition, a good portion of the administrative losses estimated at around 70 MCM in
2009, which are consumed by customers can be saved through more efficient water use.
Assuming that the administrative losses ratio from the total water supply quantity can be
reduced from 21.5% to around 10%, then the overall saving will reach around 37 MCM
based on 2009 water supply quantities.

Figure 19: Distribution of residential customers against quarterly water consumption for
2008
69

8. Better utilization of Wehda Dam

The Government of Jordan and the Government of Syria signed in 1987 an agreement to
invest the Yarmouk River water, in which it agreed that Jordan will utilize from the water
collected in the Dam and both will utilize the electricity generated by 75% for Syria and 25%
for Jordan. However, the construction of Al-Wehda Dam happened after 20 years in 2007.
The storage capacity of the dam is 110 MCM with a future plan to increase it to around 225
MCM. The decision of building the dam was made based on the annual yield of 80 MCM.
Unfortunately, since the dam was in operation, the maximum collected quantity of water
was 18 MCM occurred at the end of the last season, which formulate only 16% of it storage
capacity. The main reason for this is that Syria constructed many dams upper stream of
Yarmouk River that captured most the surface water used to flow toward the River.
Additionally, the severe over exploitation of the groundwater aquifers in the Yarmouk Basin
by the Syrian reduces the springs discharge to the Yarmouk River.
Recently, the Governments of Jordan and Syria started working together to solve the issue of
filling Al Wehda dam with water and how Syrian can reduce the overuse of the Yarmouk
Basin water. If both governments come to an agreement on how to maintain a sustainable
level of surface runoff to the dam with water, Jordan can benefit by up to around 80 MCM
annually. However, the availability of such future water source is questionable and subject
to high risk. Therefore, it is assumed that only 30 MCM per year can be utilized from this
source.
9. Rain water Harvesting
CEC (2010) estimated that using rainwater harvesting by 30% of buildings in Amman can
collect around 46.2 MCM. By Assuming that 30% of the building in the other governorates
can also collect same quantity, then rainwater harvesting can at least collected around 100
MCM annually. Definitely, expanding the use of rainwater harvesting will take time,
therefore collecting such quantity can be achieved reasonable be achieved after 5 years if
appropriate incentives and mechanisms are put in place.
Summary of future new water resources
Table 24 summarizes the additional future new water resources. Figure 20 and Figure 21 are
illustrating in graphic representation the accommodative quantities of the additional future
new water resource and the relative importance of additional future new water resources
respectively.
It should be noted that the results in Figure 20 and Figure 21 will be changed according to
the scenarios built by the stakeholders in the main study report.

70

Table 24: Future water resources in Jordan (make it as graph as there is incremental
increase annually for some sources)
Water source
Conveyance of Disi aquifer water
Red Sea Dead Sea Water Conveyance (RSDSWC)
Jordan Red Sea Project (JRSP)
Other brackish water desalination
Treated wastewater
Improve water supply efficiency
Improve water use efficiency**
Al-Wehda Dam
Rainwater harvesting

Water Quantity
(MCM)
100*
560
210, 370
???
100-247
62-83
74.5
80
100

Expected date
to utilize
2013
2022
2018, 2025
???
2008-2022
2009-2022
2011-2022
2011-2022
2016

* it is important to address that only 60 MCM is considered as an additional water that will be used
from the Disi system, as there are currently 40 MCM is used for irrigation in Disi area. This implies
that these 40 MCM will be reallocated for drinking water use.
** This is not a physically additional water quantity rather than a reallocated water for other users

1,382

1400
Conveyance of Disi aquifer water
1,190 1,201 1,211

RSDSWC

1200

JRSP
Other brackish water desalination

1000

Treated wastewater
Improve water supply efficiency

MCM

800

Al-Wehda Dam
Rainwater harvesting

600

582

594

606

618

2018

2019

2020

2021

Total
400
273

310

347

359

2016

2017

211
200

127

149

2011

2012

0
2013

2014

2015

2022

2023

2024

2025

Figure 20: Accumulative major additional future new water resource quantities

71

100%
90%

7%

14%

24%

18%

80%

14%

10%

60%
32%
51%

29%

26%

45%

23%

17%

17%

16%

5%

5%

5%

5%

13%

13%

13%

13%

8%
3%
7%

8%
2%
7%

8%
2%
7%

12%

13%

14%

18%

17%

17%

28%

11%

70%

50%

24%

20%

17%

7%
2%
6%
13%

9%

8%

21%

21%

18%

19%

21%

22%

24%

26%

36%

35%

35%

34%

47%

47%

46%

10%

10%

10%

10%

5%

5%

5%

4%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

27%

40%
23%

30%

24%

25%

41%

20%
10%

25%

28%
14%

22%

19%

17%

17%

0%
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Conveyance of Disi aquifer water

RSDSWC

JRSP

Other brackish water desalination

Treated wastewater

Improve water supply efficiency

Al-Wehda Dam

Rainwater harvesting

Figure 21: Relative importance of additional future new water resources

4.1.2 Polluted Water Resources and Future Trends

In a country with a severe water scarcity such as Jordan, water quality is a key issue that
might generate pressure on the water resource and thereby reduce the fresh water available
for use. The level of water quality varies by source of water and by geographical location. In
general, the limited presence of surface water and shallow groundwater helps in protecting
the water resources in Jordan.
Overall, water quality is declined through different causes of pollution that could be mainly
grouped into (Bakir, 2001):
1. Unsafe management of domestic wastewater: this includes disposal of untreated or
poorly treated wastewater, seepage from poorly constructed and maintained onsite
sanitation systems
2. Uncontrolled disposal of industrial waste into sewers, land and water bodies
3. Leaching from unsanitary solid waste landfills
4. Seepage from agrochemicals (excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides)
5. Over-abstraction or use of the existing water resources
Surface water quality is generally acceptable quality, but with the presence of some
important problems of salinity and bacteriological contamination of a localized nature. Some
72

of these are possibly with a strategic significance, particularly at the Zarqa junction of the
King Abdullah Canal (KAC), which is located upstream of important irrigation schemes in the
Jordan valley. The water quality flowing from As-Samra WWTP is of high salinity that is
mixed with the KAC water and causing deterioration in the irrigation water quality used in
Middle Ghor. This limits the crop planted in that area and thus required further treatment to
be suitable for growing value crops. The overall decline of fresh surface water resources
observed in recent years and in particular in Yarmouk River might have significant
implications for quality of surface water (World Bank, 2009).
There are various consequences of using the treated wastewater flowing from As Samra
WWTP downstream of the plant. These consequences include:
1. Limiting the crops that can be irrigated with the treated wastewater to those crops
with very low to low risks for consumer contamination with treated wastewater.
Such crops include olive, wheat, animal fodder, cooked vegetables, crops with
inedible shell, crops grown for their seeds and crops bound on trellis.
2. The unsuitability of irrigating value crops due to improper water salinity and quality
for those crops.
3. Increasing the cost of irrigation due to the need to reduce the treated wastewater
salinity through using desalination, using advanced technology for plantation and
irrigation, and higher maintenance cost resulted from rapid occurrence of irrigation
systems clogging.
In fact, the surface and groundwater nearby As-Samra wastewater treatment plant and
along the effluent path suffered from a major cause for deteriorating water quality (AlKharabsheh, 1999). This situation is expected to change with the construction of the new
plant on the BOT basis that produce treated wastewater according to the Jordanian
standards. Thereby, the polluted region is expected to recover in future, except with regards
of salinity issues that is stay high in future.
The groundwater resources in Jordan faced increasing trend in abstraction above the safe
yield that simultaneously leaded to a declining water tables and increasing salinity in most
aquifers. This also resulted higher extraction costs (in terms of pumping and accelerated well
replacement), and the need to use more irrigation water for leaching. Furthermore, the
salinity level of many groundwater resources is rapidly approaching the limits for drinking
water standard, making the provision of drinking water more expensive in future due to the
need for the additional desalination. The World Bank (2009) estimate the increase of
production costs and declining yields to poor water quality would affect farmers' income, for
a share of some 40% of the 2006 cost of environmental degradation. Moreover, the cost is
more likely to escalate in the future, as water tables keep declining, and as increase demand
for potable use in urban areas raises the opportunity costs of the additional water required
to lower salinity. As an illustration, Figure 22 obviously shows the relation between the
73

groundwater table drawdown and the increase in the salinity levels as measure by electrical
conductivity in Amman-Zarqa Basin, which is the most important and largest basin in Jordan.

Figure 22: Groundwater level and electrical conductivity in the Amman-Zarqa basin
(Source World Bank, 2009)

Additionally, the nitrate content in the different wells is of significant concentration and in
some wells surpasses the limits for drinking water quality particularly in Amman-Zarqa basin,
but is less alerting in the other basins.
Only 28% of the total industrial wastewater effluent is treated (or 50% if
wastewater from potash mining is excluded, which is most likely to have limited
environmental impacts). About 25% of industrial wastewater is estimated to be discharged
in the sewer network, which affect on the wastewater treatment plants performance
particularly in Amman-Zarqa Basin where the quality of the effluent is of concern on
account.
Around 63% of households have access to the sewer network, which eventually will reduce
the impact of the septic tanks on the groundwater quality. However, the remaining
unconnected households, store wastewater in septic tanks and dispose it through
wastewater tanker with limited monitoring of the effluent quality.

74

The agricultural practices and solid waste management are other two sources of pollution
that contribute to a lesser extent to contamination of water resources.
In agriculture, the per-hectare use of fertilizers and pesticides is estimated to be relatively
low (around 12 kg/ha of pesticides) in comparison to international averages. Water quality
analysis did not provide any strong evidence of residues of pesticides in surface- and groundwater. The solid waste is mostly disposed in sites that are not lined suggest that leachate
may infiltrate into aquifers that provide groundwater for drinking and irrigation use. The
recently Ghabawi landfill is designed and constructed to comply with the best international
practices to reduce the pollutants seepage to the surrounding environment. As this landfill is
serving 60% of Jordans inhabitants, then it is expected to have positive impact on water
quality.
The future trend of water quality in Jordan is dependent on Jordans ability to remove or
mitigate the causes of pollution. The following actions, plans, phenomena and their
expected impacts on water quality summarized below are providing a broad outline of how
the water quality in Jordan would look like in future:
-

Reduce groundwater abstraction and water mega projects: With having Disi water
by mid 2013 and potentially the RSDSC around 2020, the over-abstraction rates are
expected to decrease and reduce the stresses on the groundwater resources.
However salinity issue will be difficult to mitigate, as it would take long time to
recover groundwater basins which most likely will be difficult to happen while saving
the basin from further deterioration is the foreseen scenario.

Increase accessibility to wastewater network and improve effluent quality:

bacteriological contamination will be reduced but salinity will continue to be high.

Climate change: the reduction in rainfall quantity and the increase in temperatures
are going to increase the stresses on the water resources. The declining recharge
rates will diminish the expected reduction in the groundwater abstraction. Runoff
quantities are expected to decrease and thereby the contamination of surface water
is expected to increase assuming other factors do not change.

Industrial wastewater treatment: There are plans to construct industrial wastewater

treatment plants as the case of the industrial wastewater treatment plant in Zarqa
Governorate that are leaded and managed by Zarqa Chamber of Commerce, which
will serve the industrial sector around Zarqa River. Thus, the contamination resulted
from the industrial sector is expected to be less in future due to the use of high
technology of reverse osmosis units and enforcing the environmental rules and
regulations.

The combined effects of all the above actions, plans and phenomena is most likely to worsen
in the medium to long term situation, and result in impacts on human health, income and
75

agriculture outputs, well beyond the current level of impact estimated by the World Back
(2009) at 0.8% of GDP for 2006.

4.2 Water Demand

4.2.1 Assessment of the Factors Affecting Water Demand
Water demand is influenced by several confounding factors that are varied overtime.
Variation in the influential factors makes the estimation and forecast of water demand
uncertain. And demand uncertainty is at the root of the water supply reliability problem. The
ability to assess those influencing factors with higher levels of confidence corresponds to
lower levels of uncertainty. Situations of uncertainty in estimating water demand are
translated into situations of risk for being incorrect or inaccurate. Such risks include
designing over capacity systems and supply excess water which means extra costs incurred,
or the opposite case where there is water deficit (less supply than the demand requirement)
that becomes a constraint on the economic activities.
The approach used to assess the factors affecting water demand of the different sectors can
be summarized as following:
1- Reviewing the previous studies and researches carried out on Jordan
2- Identifying the main factors influencing water demand through reviewing the
literatures and building on the opinions received from the Jordans water sector
experts
3- Collect the available data related to the factors identified in the previous step
4- Investigate the relationships and their significance between the potential factors
identified and the municipal water demand using data on the governorate level.
5- Decide on the factors to consider for future domestic water demand.
4.2.1.1 Domestic Sector
There are few studies available that assess the factors affecting on the water demand.
Salman et al., 2008 tried to made estimates of demand and supply functions for water. The
study focused on understanding the nature of household demand for water, and attempted
to express the household demand functions. A panel of quarterly aggregate data of 10,564
observations was drawn from the household expenditure survey conducted by the
Department of Statistics in 2003 is used to estimate domestic water demand function. An
econometric model was developed that relate water consumption with to the marginal
price, rate structure premium, level of household income, education level, household size
and house type. The model assessed these factors using two techniques; the Ordinary Least
Square (OLS) and the two Stages Least Square (2SLS). The study used two models. In the first
model, the dependent variable is the household consumption of water in cubic meter and in

76

the second model the dependant variable is the daily per capita water consumption in litre
per capita.
Another study carried out by Al-Karablieh et al. (2006) focused on understanding the nature
of household demand for water in Amman-Zarqa basin, including estimation of residential
demand functions for water by income classes and spatial distribution. Data from 1360
households and instrumental variables estimation techniques are used to estimate the
residential water demand function. Marginal price, rate structure premium, level of
household income and other welfare indicators are examined as factors influencing
residential water demand. The results show that the estimated residential water demand
elasticity is negative and weakly responsive to price (-0.47) for the basin, (-0.62 for Amman
and -0.004 for Zarqa). Households with lower incomes responded less to higher water prices
than wealthier household groups, not as hypothesized. This means that the demand
function, below certain levels becomes insensitive to increases in price. Other factors such as
household size, level of welfare, education, and number of bathrooms are positively
correlated with water demand.
1. Population growth
It is obviously expected that water demand increase with the population growth. Figure 23
demonstrates this relation through drawing the population verses the total billed water for
each governorate over 2001-2009. There is good correlation that supports this hypothesis
with 0.81 R2. Nevertheless, water demand is not expected to increase in the same manner of
population growth. This is can be verified through drawing the population growth verses the
total billed water change for each governorate over 2001-2009 as shown in Figure 24. The
figure demonstrates that there is positive relation between population growth and water
demand increase, where all points are located in the positive quarter. However, there is no
correlation between both variables which supports that the demand change does not
increase in the same manner of the population growth. This could be explained by the
variation in NRW, by allocating in many cases the same share of water supply on a larger
number of inhabitants due to limited water availability in Jordan, and by consuming the
same quantity of water inside household even with increasing the number of members living
in the same household such as cleaning household, irrigation the garden, etc. In conclusion,
population growth has clear influence on water demand that drives its increase.

77

Figure 23: Population relation to total water billed for each governorates over 2001-2009

Figure 24: Relation between population growth the total billed water change for 20012009

2. Water prices
In economics, the demand theory implies that demand for a commodity normally decreases
by increasing its price in the market. However, such price change varies from inelastic to
elastic. Most worldwide studies indicated that water price has inelastic influence on the
domestic water demand. In Jordan, there are few studies that analyzed and assessed the
water price elasticity on water demand. Salman et al., 2008 study estimated the price
elasticity to be around -0.12 and -0.18 for the water consumption measured in liter per
capita per day and in meter cube per household per quarter. Al-Karablieh et al. (2006) also
78

showed that the estimated residential water demand elasticity is negative and weakly
responsive to price (-0.47) for the Amman-Zarqa Basin, (-0.62 for Amman and -0.004 for
Zarqa).
Furthermore, residential customers in many cases and during water supply shortages buy
water from tankers, water treatment shops and wells. The latest Household Expenditure and
Income Survey of 2008 carried out by DOS (2010) estimated that around 19.2%, 4.7% and
2.3% of Jordans household consider the mineral water (water shops), wells and water
tankers as the main source for drinking water. All these sources are more expensive than the
public water network and households of different income levels are buying these sources
derived by the need to have enough and potable drinking water. This provides further
evidence that water prices particularly under limited water supply is inelastic.
3. Distribution of urban and rural population
Urban and rural households have different characteristics and water consumption behavior
of each. For example, rural areas have more individual type houses (named as Dar) while
urban areas have more apartment type houses. Those Dars normally is surrounded by a
garden and might have additional facilities compared with apartments such as water pool,
small economic activities related to agricultural and animal production. Additionally, the
number of family members is also larger in the rural areas derived by the need to have more
family members help their families in their agricultural activities. Therefore, water demand
and consumption behavior is expected to vary between the urban and rural areas.
The analysis carried out be Salman et al. (2008) concluded that customers resident in a flat
or apartment, which are more common in urban areas, consumes less water per household
and per capita compared to customers resident in an individual houses which are common in
rural areas. This analysis also showed that there is a positive relation between household
size, which is normally large in rural areas, and water consumption based on the household
model, where adding one member to the household adds around one cubic meter to the
household consumption per month. This relation was negative based on per capita model, as
the household size gets bigger, the per capita water consumption decreases. The study
concluded that this finding reveals that the water consumption of a household increases
with the increase of its size, but the per capita consumption in the same household
decreases in parallel. This is explained as a result of an increase in the budget allocated to
water of the household budget but not at the same rate of increase as the size of the
household. The per capita model estimated that the increase of the household size will
reduce the water consumption by 13% per capita. It is important to address that the results
of the per capita model has better goodness-of-fit than the household model.
Looking at the aggregate data on the governorate level is also another way to investigate the
influence of urbanization on domestic water demand. Figure 25 presents the relation
between urban population and residential water consumption per capita per day for all
79

governorates for year 2006. The figure shows slight trend between the increase in urban
population and the increase in residential water consumption, and also a weak correlation
between both variables. Conversely, trying to investigate the relation between the
urbanization and water supply per capita provides a different opposite relation as illustrated
in Figure 26. Although, the trend line is more obvious in this case but the correlation is also
weak. A possible justification for those contradictory relationships is the NRW. In a trial to
explain this further, the relation between the rural population and NRW is drawn as shown
in Figure 27. This obviously demonstrates a better relation, which means that NRW increases
in the governorates with higher rural population. The longer water network expected in
those rural governorates means more possibility for higher physical losses. Additionally, it is
thought that illegal uses are higher in the rural areas than the urban ones.

Figure 25: Relation between urban population and residential water consumption for 2006

Figure 26: Relation between urban population and water supply for 2009 except of Aqaba
80

Figure 27: Relation between rural population and NRW for 2009

As household in the rural areas have garden and some agricultural activities inside house, it
is expected that water consumption and supply with be higher in those areas in comparison
to the more urbanized areas. Realizing that such water uses are expected to be higher during
summer season, the relation between the range of the seasonal variation of water supply
and the urbanization level is investigated. This relationship is drawn in Figure 28 for both:
the quarterly variation over 2009 (the difference between the smallest quarter and the
largest quarter water supply from the average water supply) and the seasonal variation over
2009 (the difference between the winter and the summer supply from the average water
supply), all measured relative to the average water supply. It can be seen that there is clear
trend, where rural areas witness larger variation in the seasonal water supply.

81

Figure 28: the relation between the rural population and the range of seasonal variation in
water supply for 2009

The distribution of population on urban and rural areas varies significantly among Jordans
governorates. Figure 29 shows the percentage of urban population to total population for
each governorate in 2003 and 2009. In, 2009, Karak and Mafraq have the lowest ratios of
urban population (35% and 29.2% respectively), while Zarqa and Amman are the most
urbanized governorates with 94.5% and 94% respectively. This obviously illustrated the large
variation among governorates; however the change in the percentage in urban population
within each governorate during over 6 years (2003-2009) is negligible with maximum
variation of 0.5%. Similar pattern is expected to continue in future, which means that there
will be no influence of the distribution of urban and rural population factor on the base unit
of the per capita water consumption. Therefore, and based on all the investigations made to
quantify the influence of the urban and rural factor for forecasting the annual water
demand, concluded that there is no need to consider this factor to forecast the future
annual domestic water demand.

Figure 29: Percentage of urban population to total population in Jordans Governorate

over 2003-2009 (Source of data is DOS)

4. Household income
Water demand is expected to be positively associated with income. Salman et al. (2008)
found that increasing household income by 10% the household water consumption is
expected to increase by 0.2-0.3%. Additionally, drawing the relationship between average
household member income and total per capita water billed as illustrated in Figure 30 shows
that there is positive relationship indicating that the total per capita water billed will

82

increase as the average household income increases. Thus, the income factor is
recommended to consider in estimating the future domestic water demand.
Total per capita water billed (lpcd)

150
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
-10

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Average household member income (JD/year)

Figure 30: Relationship between the average household member income and total per
capita water billed

5. Continuity of water supply (water supply)

There is no enough documentation on the continuity of water supply in all Jordan
governorates. Available accurate data is limited to mainly Amman governorate, while Aqaba
and Maan governorates enjoy continuous water supply. Therefore, there is not enough data
to investigate this factor thoroughly. However, the quantity of the per capita water supply
could be used as an indicator for the water supply continuity, where areas enjoy longer
water supply duration are expected to consume more and have more water supply than
others.

83

Figure 31: Relation between water supply and residential water consumption excluding
Aqaba

6. Seasonal factor
Q1 and Q4 represent the winter season
Q2 and Q3 represent the summer season
There are clear variations between the water supply and billed water during the
summer and winter seasons and among governorates. The range of increase in
summer season is from around 2%

84

Figure 32: Quarterly water supply per governorate for 2009

Figure 33: Quarterly variation form the average water supply per governorate for 2009
85

Figure 34: Quarterly variation form the average billed water per governorate for 2009

Figure 35: Quarterly billed water per governorate for 2009

86

7. Level of economic activities

The local economic activities can be expressed through relating the ratios of non-residential
customer to total customers in each governorate. In order to investigate the relationship
between the level of economic activities and the domestic water consumption, two
relationships have been estimated for all governorates and for all governorates except Aqaba
which was an exceptional case for the statistical point of view. Figure 36 shows that there is a
high positive relationship between the ratio of non-residential end users to total with the total
per capita billed water, where the per capita billed water will increase as the level of economic
activities (in terms of billed water level).

Total per capita billed water (lpcd)

300
All governorates

250

All Governorates except Aqaba

R = 0.9449

200
150
100
R = 0.6641

50
0
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ratio of Non-residential customers to total customers

Figure 36: Relationship between the ratio of non-residential customer to total customer with
the total per capita billed water

Table 25 summarizes the factors affecting domestic water demand. Pollution growth,
household income, continuity of water supply (water supply) and level of economic activities
have the highest impact on the domestic water demand and are expected to change in future.
All of these factors can be considered factors with validity for forecasting purposes in the
future.

Table 25: Summary of factors affecting domestic water demand

Factor
Population growth
Water price

Level of influence
High
Low

Change in future
Use for forecast
Yes, continuous growth Yes
Not specified but mostly No

Distribution of urban
and rural population
Household income
Continuity of water
supply (water supply)
Season
Level of
activities

Moderate

will increase
Minor on annual base

No

Moderate
High

Yes
Moderate to high

Yes
Yes

High

Cycle change with the No

year only
Low to moderate
Yes

economic High

4.2.1.2 Industrial Sector

1. Production capacity
This is an obvious factor that influences water demand. As the industrial productions volume
increases more water will be consumed. Plotting the historical industrial water use verses the
industrial production expressed in Jordanian Dinars deflated by Producer Price Index
(1999=100) on a log scale show that there is positive relationship between the industrial
production and water consumption as illustrated in Figure 37.

Ln (Water Consumption (1000 m3))

10.6
10.5

y = 0.1552x + 9.1247
R = 0.3204

10.5
10.4
10.4
10.3
8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

Ln (Industrial production (Million JD))

Figure 37: Relationship of the industrial production and water consumption

88

It is important to address that there was a sudden increase happened only in 2007 due to non
justifiable increase in groundwater abstraction for industrial use in Azraq Basin from 0.3 to 8.6
MCM. Additionally, the abstraction rate for industrial use in Azraq Basin returned back to
around 0.3 MCM. Thus, relationship presented in Figure 37 is drawn after adjusting the 2007
figure by reducing the abstraction rate of 2007 by 8 MCM.

2. Technology ratio between water and production volume

Each type of industry has its water requirement. The water use intensity parameter is used to
express the technology ration between water and production volume, which is estimated by
dividing the quantity of water use by the production volume expressed in JDs. Reviewing the
estimated historical water use intensity for the main industrial groups in Jordan showed that
there are large fluctuation from year to year during 1994-2008, that require careful
consideration before adopting a value of water use intensity for each industry group. As
demonstration of this issue, Figure 38 shows the high variation of historical water use intensity
values for a sample of selected industries. In order to overcome the issue of data inaccuracy,
the values that are above or below the average 1 unit of the standard deviation of water use
intensity are excluded from estimating the value of the water use intensity for each industry,
which are presented in Figure 39. It can be seen that mining industry is the most intensive
industry of water use, while oil, gas and related products industry is lowest intensive industry.

Water use intensity (m3/1000 JD)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Oil & Gas

Tobacco products

Coke & refined petroleum products

Electrical machinery

Machinery & equipment

Vehicles

2008

Figure 38: Historical water use intensity for sample of industries

89

Mining and quarrying

Chemicals
Other non-metallic mineral products
Food products and beverages
Medical, precision and optical instruments,
Electricity, gas, steam & hot water supply
Paper
Rubber and plastics
Basic metals
Wearing apparel, dressing & dyeing of fur
Textiles
Leather
Fabricated metal products
Other transport equipment
Furniture
Wood
Publishing & printing
Machinery & equipment
Vehicles
Electrical machinery
Tobacco products
Oil & Gas
Coke & refined petroleum products
0

10

12

14

16

18

Water use intensity (m3/1000 JD)

Figure 39: Estimated water use intensity for main industry groups

90

4.2.1.3 Tourism Sector

The main factors influencing the tourist water demand are:
1. Hotel classification
Normally, hotels have different facilitations that vary between from hotel to hotel. But
generally, hotels with same classification have common facilities. For example, most if not all
five stars hotels have water pools, large gardens, and other fancy facilities that consume larger
quantities of water. Hotels in Jordan are classified into classified hotels, Hotels Apartment &
Suites, Camping and Hostels. Table 26 presents a summary of key statistics of the number of
arrivals, number of nights occupied and number of rooms occupied for 2009.
Table 26: Summary statistics for the hotels nights, rooms, and arrivals in 2009
Hotels Apartment
& Suites
199,552

Camps

Hostels

No. of Arrivals

Classified
Hotels
2,102,319

25,386

3,054

No. of Nights Occupied

No. of Rooms Occupied

4,010,064
2,503,196

789,872
344,325

32,009
17,353

3,054
1,687

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities

2. Water consumption per hotel bed occupied
Water consumption per bed occupied for each hotel group. Table 27 presents the adapted
demand rate per bed per day according to governorates by the NWMP, where water demand is
related to the hotel classification. Based on this table water consumption per bed per day can
be assumed to be 800, 350, and 180 liters for classified hotels, hotel apartment & suits and
hsotels respectively. The cams normally consume low amount of water and can be assumed to
be around 100 liter.
Table 27: Representative Net Tourist Demand (excluding physical losses)1
Governorate Comments

Demand
(l/bed/day)

Aqaba

Red Sea beaches, pools, aqua parks, golf courses, open spaces, staff
790-938
houses and residences, sports, commercial and cultural centres.

Balqa &
Madaba*

Dead Sea beaches, pools, tourist villages, youth camps, staff

houses.

196-247

Amman

No beach, pools, landscaping.

350

Source: National Water Master Plan, MWI, 2004

91

Others

No beach, no pools, no or little landscaping.

180

* Irrigation water use for landscaping purposes outside the hotels not included here.

3. Water consumption per hotel bed not occupied

There is no available estimation for water consumption per hotel bed not occupied in Jordan.
Thus, an assumption of 100 liter per day per bed is assumed.
4. Number of tourist
The number of tourists is basically affecting the occupancy rate. Figure 40 shows the historical
occupancy rates for the classified holes, hotel apartments & suites and hostels.
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2005

2006

Classified hotels

2007

2008

Hotel Apartment & Suiites

2009
Hostels

Figure 40: Historical occupancy rate for the different hotels Agricultural sector

4.2.1.4 Agricultural sector

There are different factors affecting agricultural water demand that can be grouped into the
following factors:
1. Type of irrigation and cultivation technologies
Irrigation technologies commonly used in Jordan include furrow, drip and sprinkler. Open
space, greenhouse and plastic tunnels are the most technologies used for cultivation or

92

production. Using different irrigation and cultivation technologies are influencing irrigation
water demand in two ways:
1- Irrigation water requirement
2- Irrigation water efficiency
Typical crops water requirements are presented in Figure 45, Figure 46 and Figure 47 which
vary depending on the climatic zone of plantation. However, using different irrigation and
cultivation technologies result in changing these typical water requirement. For example, using
drip irrigation system will need less water than using sprinkler irrigation system to irrigation
same crop. Table 28 shows the change in irrigation water requirement for the different most
common combination of using different irrigation and cultivation technologies.
Table 28: Change in Irrigation water requirement according to irrigation and cultivation
technologies in relation to standard water requirement
Irrigation technology
Production technology
Open space
Greenhouse
Plastic tunnels
NA: Not applicable

Surface

Drip

Sprinkler

0%
NA
NA

-10%
-10%
-10%

+10%
+10%
NA

In addition to irrigation water requirement, the irrigation and cultivation technologies affect on
the irrigation water efficiency. Shatanawi et al. (2007) assessed the current on-farm irrigation
efficiency in the Central Jordan Valley to be as presented in Table 29. Another study carried out
by Battikhi and Abu-Hammad (1994) also estimated field irrigation efficiency for citrus and
vegetables as presented in Table 30. The current irrigation water efficiency of surface irrigation
is unexpectedly better then drip irrigation, which is explained by improper design and
maintenance of drip irrigation systems and not irrigating in accordance with crop water
requirement.
Table 29: On-farm water irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley
Irrigation and cultivation technologies
Surface irrigation (open space)
Drip irrigation (open space)
Drip irrigation (green house)
Center pivot irrigation (Desert )*
Source: Shatanawi et al., 2007
* Nazzal, Y.K. (1989)

Irrigation water efficiency (%)

70
56
42
75.5-84

93

Table 30: Field irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley for citrus and vegetables
Irrigation and cultivation technologies
surface irrigation (citrus)
surface irrigation (vegetables )
Sprinkler (citrus)
drip irrigation (vegetables)

Field irrigation efficiency (%)

82
64
88
91

Source: Battikhi and Abu-Hammad, 1994

The total irrigated area in Jordan is estimated at about 81,000 hectares distributed between the
Jordan Rift Valley (JRV) of 31,000 hectares and the highlands and the desert areas (50,000 ha).
Table 31 and Figure 41 show the distribution of irrigation technology in Jordan Valley and
Highland in Jordan. It can be seen that drip and surface irrigation technology are dominant with
where around 63% and 33% respectively of those technologies are being used for irrigation.
The use of sprinkler systems is limited to forage and cereal production and does not exceed 4%,
(DOS, 2008).

Table 31: Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in Jordan
Technology
JV-Field Crops
JV-Vegetables
JV-Fruit Tress
Total JV
HL-Field Crops
HL-Vegetables
HL-Fruit Tress
Total Highland
JOR-Field Crops
JOR-Vegetables
JOR-Fruit Tress
Total Jordan

Drip
4,359
170,294
60,506
235,159
2,947
107,610
162,230
272,787
7,306
277,905
222,735
507,946

Sprinklers
886
339
0
1225
13880
17338
139
31358
14766
17677
139
32583

Surface
20,401
17,106
38,626
76,133
10,522
13,392
171,803
195,717
30,923
30,497
210,429
271,850

Irrigated
25,646
187,739
99,132
312,517
27,349
138,340
334,172
499,862
52,995
326,079
433,303
812,379

Source: aggregated from DOS (2008). Jordan Agricultural Census 2007, Detailed Results.
Department of Statistics, Amman, Jordan.

94

100%
90%

Drip

Sprinklers

Surface

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Figure 41: Relative Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in
Jordan

2. Agricultural area
This is a direct proportional parameter, in which the irrigation water demand increases linearly
with the agricultural area increase. Drawing the historical data of planted area and irrigation
water use from 1994 till 2008 for both upland region and Jordan Valley clearly demonstrates a
strong proportional relationship between the planted area and irrigation water use as
illustrated in Figure 42 and Figure 43 respectively.

95

Up-land

350
Field Crops

Water use (MCM)

300

Vegetables
Fruit Tress

250
200
150
100
50
0
0

200

400
600
Planted area (1000 Dunum)

800

1000

Figure 42: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in upland

Jrdan Valley

140
Field Crops

Water use (MCM)

120

Vegetables
Fruit Tress

100
80
60
40
20
0
0

50

100
150
Planted area (1000 Dunum)

200

250

Figure 43: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in Jordan Valley

3. Cropping pattern and climatic zone

96

Crops have different water requirements that also vary depending on the climatic zone.
Normally crops planted in highlands or cold regions will need less water quantity than crops
planted in desert, low lands or warm regions. Figure 44 shows the agro-climatic zones in Jordan
which comprise of three major zones; Jordan Valley, highlands, and deserts. Most planted areas
are located in Jordan Valley and highlands. The planted part of the deserts is close to the
highlands climatic zone characteristics. Thus, highlands and planted deserts are grouped into
one category and named upland. The typical crops water requirements for field crops,
vegetables and fruit trees in uplands and Jordan Valley are presented in Figure 45, Figure 46
and Figure 47 respectively. It can be seen that crops water requirements are higher in the
upland area than the JV, where most of vegetable crop are cultivated in summer season and
does not benefit from effective rainfall.

97

Figure 44: Agro-climatic zones in Jordan

Field Crops

Jordan Valley

Up-land

Others field crop

Alfalfa
Clover, trifoliate
Sesame
Vetch, common
Garlic
Tobacco, red
Tobacco, local
Broom millet
Sorghum
Maize
Chick-peas
Vetch
Lentils
Barley
Wheat
m3/Dunum 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Figure 45: Typical field crops water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley

98

Jordan Valley

Vegetables

Up-land

Others Vegetables
Radish
Parsley
Carrot
Turnip
Snake cucumber
Onion dry
Onion green
Spinach
Water melon
Sweet melon
Lettuce
Okra
Jew's mallow
Cow-peas
Peas
String beans
Broad beans
Sweet pepper
Hot pepper
Cauliflower
Cabbage
Potato
Cucumber
Eggplants
Squash
Tomatoes
m3/Dunum 0

200

400

600

800

Figure 46: Typical vegetables water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley

99

Jordan Valley

Fruit Trees

Up-land

Others fruit trees

Bananas
Dates
Guava
Pears
Pomegrantes
Apples
Apricots
Plums, prunes
Peaches
Almonds
Figs
Grapes
Olives
Citrus fruits
m3/Dunum

200

400

600

800

1,000 1,200 1,400

Figure 47: Typical fruit trees water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley

4. Water availability for irrigation (Competitiveness between sectors on fresh water)

This is a constraint factor that limits the irrigated lands. Jordan water strategy addressed that
the first priority is for drinking water, which covers domestic and tourist sectors, second priority
is for industrial sector and at the lowest priority is for irrigation. Thus, lower water quantities
will be allocated to irrigation under drought periods, which means lower agricultural areas will
be planted and so irrigated. In practice, this is mainly applied in JV where JVA puts constraints
on the size of the agricultural areas that could be planted when there is not enough water
available for irrigation due to drought occurrence or to the increase in domestic demand.
5. Water prices
There are three different types of water sources supply irrigation with three different pricing
structures. These are the irrigation water tariff in Jordan Valley, which is an increasing block
100

water tariff as presented in Table 32, the treated wastewater which is priced at fixed rate of
0.01 JD/m3, and groundwater tariff presented in Table 33.

Table 32: Irrigation water tariff structure in Jordan Valley

Usage Block (m3 per month)
0-2,500
2,501-3,500
3,501-4,500
More than 4,500

Irrigation Water Tariff (JD/m3)

0.008
0.015
0.02
0.035

Table 33: Groundwater tariff structure

No. Water Quantity (m3)
Water Price (JD/m3)
Licensed agricultural wells
1
0-150,000 cum
Free
2
151,000-200,000
0.005
3
More than 200,000 cum
0.06
Unlicensed agricultural wells
1
0-100,000
0.025
2
101,000-150,000
0.03
3
151,000-200,000
0.035
4
More than 200,000
0.07
Agricultural wells in Al Azraq Area with specified quantities
1
Within specified quantities
Free
2
> specified quantities but less than 100,000
0.02
3
More than 100,000
0.06
Brackish Water Wells
No. Water Quantity (m3)
Salinity (ppm)
Water Price (JD/m3)
1
0 150,000
Free
2
More than 150,000
1000 1500
0.015
3
More than 150,000
1500 2000
0.01
4
More than 150,000
> 2000
0.005
Governmental wells used for irrigation
Any quantity
0.025
Source: Underground Water Control By-Law No. (85) of 2002 and its amendments

Salman et al., (2001) assess the impact of water prices for different water qualities. The ownprice elasticity of surface water demand, is about -0.04 at the actual surface water price of
101

$0.049 per m3. This is a very low elasticity, but that is very largely a consequence of the very
low actual price at which it is evaluated. At the midpoint of the range of surface prices studied
($0.575 per m3), the own-price elasticity of surface water demand is about -.91. This means
that, starting at that price, an increase of 1% in the price of surface water will decrease the
quantity demanded by about 0.91%, so that demand is slightly inelastic (Figure 48). Using the
same procedure, the total water quantity demanded is regressed on surface water price,
holding the prices for brackish and recycled water constant. The over-all water demand
elasticity is -0.027, at the actual surface water price $0.049 per m3, but -0.42, at the average of
$0.575 per m3 of surface water. This means that, increasing the price of surface water by 1%
decreases the quantity demanded of all kinds of water by 0.42%.
Following the same procedure as for surface water, the results of varying the brackish and
recycled water prices are presented in Figure 49 and Figure 50, respectively. The best fitting
demand curve for brackish water is again linear as shown in Figure 49, whereas in the case of
recycled water the semi-log form fits best (Figure 50).
The price elasticities of demand of brackish and recycled water are estimated at 0.29 and 0.43, at the actual water prices of $0.009 and $0.013 per m3, respectively, The price elasticities
of demand of brackish and recycled water, at the respective midpoint prices of $0.03 and
$0.017 per m3 are -1.01 and -1.21, respectively, so that demand is almost unitary elastic for
brackish water and elastic for recycled water (Table 11).
The price levels, at which the absolute value of the price demand elasticity is equal or greater
than one, were determined. The water price level at which the price elasticity of water demand
is unitary elastic was $0.0299 per m3 for brackish water and $0.11 per m3 for recycled water.
The effect of increasing brackish and recycled water prices on over-all water demand is an
elasticity of -0.01 with respect to the recycled water price and 0.06 with respect to the
brackish water price at the actual prices. Even at the midpoints of the ranges studied, the
elasticity is also small, being -0.07 with respect to the recycled water price and -0.03 with
respect to the brackish water price.
As a conclusion, it can be seen that as long as prices of water kept at their low levels for all
water qualities, the pricing policy will not be able to be used as an effective tool to reduce
water demand in the irrigated sector. This can be attributed to the high scarcity or shortage in
irrigation water quantity in investigated area.
Since all the applied irrigation water tariffs are considered low and it is not expected to
introduce a 2 to 3 folds increase in the different tariffs of irrigation water, the change in
irrigation water price is assumed to have limited impact on irrigation water demand. Therefore,
102

it is imperative to increase irrigation water prices at a makeable rate to make the pricing policy
effective in reducing water consumption.

Figure 48: Surface water demand curve for irrigation

Figure 49: Brackish water demand curve for irrigation

103

Figure 50: Recycled wastewater demand cure for irrigation

6. Water quality
Different irrigation water quality used in Jordan, which can be classified into:

Fresh water: this water is of a salinity of less than 1000 ppm. Fresh water is used in
Northern Jordan Valley and uplands.

Brackish: this water is of a salinity of more than 1000 ppm.

Desalinated: This is a desalinated brackish water, which is used in different locations in

Jordan Valley and uplands

Treated Wastewater & mixed with fresh water: treated wastewater is becoming more
and more as a major water source for irrigation particularly in Middle Jordan Valley,
where it is mixed with fresh water coming through King Abdulla Cannel.

Quality and salinity of water affect on the crop water requirement as well as on the type of
crops that could be planted. Figure 51 shows the different classifications of the corps tolerance
to water salinity that could be planted. As an example, Alfalfa, wheat and barley are different
crops that are moderately sensitive, moderately tolerant and tolerant respectively.
Citrus is heavily planted on Northern Jordan Valley while it is rarely planted in Middle Jordan
Valley where water is more saline and citrus could be planted using water with salinity of more
than 1000 ppm. Additionally, using saline water requires more water quantity.
104

Relative crop yield (%)

Figure 51: Categories for classifying crop tolerance to salinity according to the United State
Department of Agriculture Salinity Lab
4.2.2 Evaluation of Future Water Demand
This section is based on the analysis carried out in section 4.2.1.
4.2.2.1 Domestic water demand forecasting
As concluded in section 4.2.1.1, four factors (population growth, household income, continuity
of water supply (represented by the water supply), and level of economic activities
(represented by the % of non-residential water billed to total water billed)) are considered to
be used as main factors that are affecting the total billed water for domestic sector. Data set on
the governorate level for years from 2001 to 2009 was used to create a relationship between
those factors and domestic water demand represented by the total water billed. The data for
the household income and water supply factors were divided by the number of population and
thereby the population growth factor became implied in those two factors. Data set was also
transferred into double log form in order to produce the elasticity directly for each factor. Then
a multi-regression analysis of the three factors (annual Income of household member, % of
non-residential water billed to total water billed and water supply per capita) was carried out.
The results of the regression analysis are presented in Table 34. The t-stat and P-values
presented in the Table 34 show that the results for the regression have very good level of
confidence that can be used to forecast future domestic water demand knowing the future
values of the influencing factors.
105

It can be concluded that annual Income of household member, % of non-residential water

billed to total water billed and water supply are factors affecting on the total billed water for
domestic sector positively. The results show that as the household income increases by 100%
the rate of billed water will increase by 22%. The level of economic activities factor has
influence on water demand double the impact of the household income factor.. Additionally,
water supply increases by 100% the total domestic billed water would increase by 31%. This
ratio seems to be low due to the fact that the customers will not consume more than their
water needs.
Thus, the following equation can be used to forecast the domestic billed water











=

.











+

.




















_












+

.


































+

.

Equation 1

Where DBW is the domestic billed water per capita per day in liters (lpcd), HH_Income is the
average annual income of household member in JD, NResRatio is the percentage of nonresidential water billed to total water billed and WS is the total water supply per capita per day
in liters (lpcd). Since the DBW is influenced by the level of water supply which includes the
NRW, then there is no need to adjust for the NRW factor. In order to get the total annual
domestic billed water, the value of the DBW is multiplied by the number of future population
and the number of days in the year. Then by adding the administration losses, the total
domestic water demand (DWD) can be estimated as following






=













.





+



















.

Equation 2

Where DWD unit is meter cube per year, Pop is the number of population and ALRatio is the
Administration water loss to total water supply ratio (or NRW multiplied by the administrative
losses portion, which is normally assumed to be 50% of NRW by most water experts in Jordan).

Table 34: Relationship of total billed water for domestic sector as a function of Average
annual Income of household member, % of Non-Residential water billed to total water billed
and Water supply

2.164542

Standard
t Stat
P-value
Error
0.618072 3.502085 0.000682

0.220128

0.070202 3.135624

0.00223

0.450755

0.046661 9.660247

3.87E-16

Coefficients
Intercept
Average annual Income of household
member (JD/yr)
% of Non-Residential water billed to total
water billed

106

Water supply (lpcd)

0.311092

0.064936 4.790784

5.54E-06

4.2.2.2 Industrial water demand forecasting

In section 4.2.1.2, it was found that the production capacity expressed in monetary value and
technology ration between water and production volume expressed in water use intensity are
the two factors affecting the industrial water demand. Industrial water demand can be best
forecasted if industrial production and water use intensity data is available for each industry
group using the following equation:

Equation 3

Where IWD is the industrial water demand in m3, Q is the industrial production expressed in
1000 JD adjusted by the Producer Price Index (1999=100), the WUI is the water use intensity
expressed in m3/1000 JD presented in Figure 39, i is the industry group.
If only gross industrial production is available, then using the historical data set of gross
production and water consumption for the years 1996 -2008 can be used to develop an
empirical equation to forecast the industrial water demand as following
Equation 4

The results of the regression parameters (t-stat and P-values) are presented in the Table 35. R
square is 0.8, which all indicate a good level of confidence that support using Equation 4 to
forecast the industrial water demand. In addition,
Table 35: Regression parameters of industrial water demand and industrial production

Coefficients
Intercept
Industrial production (100 JD)

-7.33539
1.090632

Standard
t Stat
Error
0.482948 -15.1888
0.041861 26.05336

P-value
2.14E-37
2.49E-73

4.2.2.3 Tourist water demand forecasting

As assessed in section 4.2.1.3, touristic water demand is a function of the water consumption
per hotel bed occupied which is also a function of the hotel classification and location, water
consumption per hotel bed not occupied and number of tourists. Based on these factors,
touristic water demand is best to be forecasted using Equation 5 below:
107

Equation 5

Where TWD is the tourist water demand in m3, WCOB is the water consumption of the
occupied hotel bed, B is the number of hotel beds, OR is the average annual occupancy rate in
%, WCNOB is the water consumption of hotel bed not occupied, and i is the hotel classification.
The limited available data on water consumption per hotel classification did not allow to
developed empirical relation to forecast water demand as the case of the domestic and
industrial water demands.

4.2.2.4 Agricultural water demand forecasting

Five out of six factors were assessed in 4.2.1.4 are mainly considered to affect the agricultural
water demand. These are the irrigation efficiency which is a function of the type of irrigation
and cultivation technologies, the planted area, crop water requirement which is a function of
the cropping pattern and climatic zone, water quality and water availability for irrigation. The
water availability for irrigation is constraint factor that result if having a ceiling for available
water for irrigation. Only irrigation water prices did not show a significant influence on
irrigation water demand, where demand is inelastic to irrigation water prices. Based on this
Equation 6 can be developed to estimate agricultural water demand.

Subject to WA

Equation 6

Where AWD is the agricultural water demand, A is the area of planted crop, CWR is the crop
water requirement for each crop type (i), IE is the irrigation efficiency factor that depends on
the type of irrigation and cultivation technologies used (j), WQ is the water quality factor that
depend on the source of water (k), n, m and l are the number of crops planted, type of
irrigation and cultivation technologies used and sources of water respectively. WA is the water
availability factor that determines the maximum possible water quantity for irrigation water
use.

4.3 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources

Climate change is among the global environmental issues that has received most attention
across nearly all domains (political, media, scientific, and civil society). Although Jordan does
108

not contribute more than 0.1% to the causes of global climate change, its effects on the country
will be very severe. In fact, Jordan is particularly vulnerable given already scarce water
resources and high levels of aridity. Natural and physical systems in Jordan are already facing
heavy pressures, and these will only be intensified as temperatures in Jordan get higher and/or
precipitation gets lower.
Jordan is facing water scarcity problem and it is the most water-stressed region. The projected
impacts of climate change (such as more extreme weather events, decreased precipitation and
rising sea levels) will exacerbate this problem. There are severe environmental, economic,
political and security implications. Climate change is expected to primarily affect precipitation,
temperature and potential evapotranspiration, and, thus, is likely to effect the occurrence and
severity of droughts and flash floods. An important question for the assessment of future
impacts (i.e. socio-economic and environmental) is how changes in climate will affect the water
budget components in Jordan. Once the impacts on the hydrological cycle components are
understood, then, the impacts of climate change on the hydrological extremes (droughts and
floods) can be assessed. According to recent modeling studies (Abdulla et al., 2009; IPCC,
2007b; and WRI, 2005), the Jordan will face an increase of 2 to 5.5C in the surface temperature
by the end of the 21st century. In addition, this temperature increase will be coupled with a
projected decrease in precipitation of between 0 and 20%. The results for Jordan include
shorter winters, dryer and hotter summers, a higher rate of heat waves, increased weather
variability, and a more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events.
4.3.1 Introduction

Climate change (CC) refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by
changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 2007a). Science established a causal
effect between the acceleration of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and CC effects (IPCC,
2007a), Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times,
with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004.
In its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that
water and its availability and quality will be the main pressures on, and issues for, societies
and the environment under climate change (Bates et al., 2008). Over the past decade,
evidence on global warming and the accompanying changes in the earth is mounting. The
IPCCs fourth assessment report concludes that it is 9099% likely that the rise in global
atmospheric temperature since the mid- 19th century has been caused by human activities
(IPCC, 2007a).
109

It is a well established fact that the temporal and spatial variability of freshwater resources is
very sensitive to possible changes that may occur in the climate mechanism due to global
warming. It is assumed that the frequency of extreme hydrological events (floods, droughts)
will increase in function of various climate change scenarios (Al-Weshah, 2008).
Hydrometeorological hazards such as floods and droughts affect many regions of the world, but
their impact in terms of lives lost and livelihoods disrupted tends to fall most heavily on the
poor in developing countries. Climate change threatens to heighten these impacts in many
areas, both by changing the frequency and/or intensity of extreme events and by bringing
changes in mean conditions that may alter the underlying vulnerability of populations to
hazards. The result in the decades to come may be an increase in the global burden of weatherrelated disasters: events that can threaten the sustainability of development processes and
undermine progress toward poverty reduction.
Jordan is located in arid and semiarid zones and is known for its minimal annual rainfall, very
high rates of evaporation and consequently extremely insufficient renewable water resources
(Al-Weshah, 2008). Sustainable Management of water resources is a must as water scarcity is
becoming more and more a development constraint impeding the economic growth of the
country. Due to the expanding population in this century together with the increasing per
capita water demand and the huge socio-economic developments of the last three decades the
need for sustainable use and integrated management of Jordan's scarce water resources has
become an eminent condition for survival. Many of the surface and groundwater resources in
the country are drawn from shared rivers and aquifers respectively, complicating the situation
even further. The consequences of water scarcity and conflicts could lead to serious crisis and
possible confrontations, if they are not looked at, and dealt with, from a mandatory and
equitable sustainable approach.
For Jordan, the future projections using climate models point to an increase in temperature and
decrease in rainfall. Both present variability and long-term climate change impacts are most
severe in the developing world, the segment of world that is least able to buffer itself against
impacts. The impacts are particularly severe in countries, regions and communities where the
capacity to cope with, and adapt to, the hydrological effects of climate variability will influence
their overall development prospects.
Climate-related impacts on water resources are already being documented. Global climate
models predict a warmer planet. For Jordan, this could mean changes to our climate
specifically temperature, evaporation, rainfall, and drought. Changes in climate will also likely
affect the availability of our water resources and our plans to meet expected demands for
water in the future. For surface water resources, the connection between climate and water
availability is clearer and more immediate, although it does have its complications, such as
changing land use associated with climate change.
110

The implications of climate variability and climate change have not been fully taken into
account in the current decision- making framework. Therefore, assessment of vulnerability and
consequent risk to water resources due to climate-change impacts is necessary to work out
proper adaptation and mitigation responses. The overall purpose of this study is to give a
general overview of the studied impacts of the projected climatic changes in Jordan, in order to
address some key points in the way of adaptation and mitigation planning.

4.3.2 Climate change, water resources and risk

The impact of climate change on freshwater resources according to the fourth assessment
report of the IPCC is given in Table 1 (IPCC, 2007d).
Table 36: Impact of climate change on freshwater resources (IPCC, 2007d)
Region/conditions

Impact

%
Change
High latitude, some wet tropical Increase in annual average river 10-40
areas
run-off and water availability
Dry regions at mid-latitudes and in Decrease in annual average river 10-30
the dry tropical areas, some of run-off and water availability
which are presently water stressed
Drought-affected areas
Increase in extent
Increase in frequency of heavy
precipitation events

Degree of
confidence
Very high

Very high

Very high

Assessing the risk of climate change requires knowledge of the likelihoods of both climate
change and of its consequences. Within climate change studies, high uncertainty requires the
use of scenarios that are plausible but have no probability attached (Carter and La Rovere,
2001). For example, if greenhouse gas emission scenarios and climate change scenarios are
plausible with no further likelihood, then the consequences of those scenarios in terms of
impacts have the same limitations. This leads to a growing cascade of uncertainties associated
with a chain of consequences limited by the least predictable link (Jones, 2000).
The importance of viewing climate variability as a crucial ingredient of water resource
management has been clearly demonstrated by OConnell and Wallis (1984). Climate variability
has always existed and shall continue to exist. Accordingly, the variability factor should be
recognized, analyzed and used in the process of water resource planning and management.
Here, what is important for planners today is to capture the major shifts in the climate and
incorporate them accordingly in future designs.
111

Both present variability and long-term climate change impacts are most severe in the
developing world, the segment of world that is least able to buffer itself against impacts. The
impacts are particularly severe in countries, regions and communities where the capacity to
cope with, and adapt to, the hydrological effects of climate variability will influence their overall
development prospects.
The implications of climate variability and climate change have not been fully taken into
account in the current decision- making framework. Therefore, assessment of vulnerability and
consequent risk to water resources due to climate-change impacts is necessary to work out
proper adaptation and mitigation responses. The overall purpose of such an exercise is twofold: one, to define the environmental and ecological consequences of the disturbance in the
water cycle and water resource system, and two, to anticipate the impacts on the human
system at large.
The 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested that countries in
the Middle East such as Jordan is likely to see a warmer climate, a decrease in mean annual
runoff, and an increase in the number of extreme drought events. All of these are likely to
affect the water resources of Jordan, including the groundwater resources. Similar potential
long-term impacts were defined in a study of climate change in Syria and Iraq. A climate change
impact study on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers predicts decreased rivers flows in both rivers by
as much as 30-50% (IPCC, 2007a). These studies indicate that the water supply may be
adversely affected by climate change during the 21st century.
A significant number of urban areas currently face similar challenges to fulfilling the demand of
critical natural resources (water, energy, food, etc.). This illustrates the strong need for a better
understanding and knowledge of the state of these resource pools, how they are likely to be
impacted by global environmental change, and the probable consequences of those impacts
upon urban areas. The water sector has postponed adaptation due to climate change
uncertainty. Although there is wide acceptance that water resources are sensitive to climate
change, managers have delayed accounting for climate change in their planning until the risks
are better known.
Climate change will impact water quality in arid and semi arid regions. It will:

Increase extreme precipitation and flooding, which will increase erosion rates and
wash soil based pollutants and toxins into waterways.

Contaminate coastal surface and groundwater resources due to sea level rise,
resulting in saltwater intrusion into aquifers.

112

Increase water temperatures, leading to more algal and bacterial blooms that
further contaminate water supplies.

Contribute to environmental health risks associated with water. For instance,

changes in precipitation patterns are likely to increase flooding, and as a result
mobilize more pathogens and contaminants. It is estimated that by 2030 the risk of
diarrhea will be up to 10 percent higher in some countries due to climate change

4.3.3 Climatic Trend in Jordanian watersheds

Previous studies investigated the weather records in Jordan showed an increase in the
magnitude and frequency of extreme temperatures (Abdulla and Al-Omari, 2008). Higher
temperature and lower precipitation are expected as a result of climate change: The main
results of the local climate change studies are:

Trend analysis reveal that there is a slight increase in the mean annual temperature

Mean annual maximum temperature tends to increase slightly, but the mean annual
minimum temperature tends to show higher increase

According to the Jordans Second National Communication to UNFCCC, the annual precipitation
showed decreasing trends by 520 % in the majority of the stations in Jordan during the last 45
years, but very few stations such as Ruwaished in the extreme east and Ras Muneef in the
northwest experienced an increase in the annual rainfall amount by 5 10 % (JSNC, 2009).
Larger rainfall amount with a decrease in the number of rainy days may lead to an increase in
the daily rainfall intensity and, thus, increasing the chance of recording extreme precipitation
values. On the other hand, many other stations experienced increasing number of rainy days
associated with decreasing annual precipitation amounts (JSNC, 2009). In this case a smaller
amount of precipitation will spread over a longer period of time and consequently the daily
rainfall intensity may be reduced. Increasing trends in relative humidity of about 413% during
the last three decades in the majority of the study locations are observed (JSNC, 2009).

4.3.4 Projected Climate Change in Jordanian Watersheds

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changean international group of climate

scientistsissued an assessment of projected climate change impacts around the world. This
report, the Fourth Assessment Report (FAR), estimates that the average temperature of the

113

Middle East region will increase by about 1 2 C between 2030-2050. This would result in
higher evaporation rates, causing soil degradation across large areas of land in the region.
Jordan is a vast zone of generally diverse climatic conditions, characterized by very low and
highly variable annual rainfall and a high degree of aridity (FAO, 2002b). Most of Jordan lands
are classified as hyper-arid, semi-arid and arid land zones (WRI, 2002). Most recent
assessments have concluded that arid and semi- arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate
change (IPCC, 2007a).
For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a range of IPCC
SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had
been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1C per decade would be
expected (IPCC, 2007b).
According to climate change studies, Jordan will face an increase of 2C to 4.3C in the surface
temperature by the end of the 21st century. This increase will be coupled with a projected
decrease in precipitation from 0 to 20%. These projected changes will lead to shorter winters,
dryer and hotter summers, a higher rate of heat waves, a higher level of weather variability and
a more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events.
For Jordan, the future projections using climate models point to an increase in the mean annual
temperature by 0.85 to 1.0 C in 2040, by 1 to 1.6C in 2050, and by 3.8 to 4.3 C in year 2100.
They also show a decreasing trend in annual precipitation by 10% to 20% in the Mediterranean
region and northern of the Arab peninsula.
Simulated ranges of warming for Arab region (IPCC 2007a), in the best scenario, By 2030,
annual average temperatures are 0.5 to 1.0 C higher over most of Arab region, By 2070, the
increase in annual average temperatures will range from 1 to 1.5 C, By 2100, the increase in
annual average temperatures is predicted to reach 2.5 to 3.0 C. Model results indicate that
future increases in daily maximum and minimum temperature will be similar to the changes in
average temperature.
Preliminary climate change and climate variability scenarios for Jordan indicate that rainfall will
become intense and dry spells will become more pronounced.
According to (IPCC 2007) report, projected annual average ranges of precipitation tend toward
decrease in Jordan and its surrounding countries by 10% to 20 %. By using different general
circulation models (GCMs), Bou-Zeid and El-Fadel (2002) projected that by the year 2020,
Lebanon will witness a 15 per cent decrease in availability of water resources and a 6 per cent
increase in water demand for agriculture. Outputs of two GCMs models (Max Planck Institute
(MPI) and Hadley) suggested that by 2040 the mean annual temperature in Jordan is expected
114

to increase by 1.7 C and 0.84 C, respectively (Abdulla and Al Omari 2008). The output of these
models have been retrieved and extracted from the IPCC Data Distribution Center for climate
change studies. The monthly temperature and precipitation from the Hadley and MPI models
simulation of current conditions (1xCO2) were compared with observed data (1960-2000). In
Figure 52 the Hadley model output temperature for the current run is in a good agreement with
mean monthly temperature for the Zarqa River basin (Jordan), while the MPI tends to
overestimate the baseline temperature.
Temperature and precipitation adjustment statistics for both the Hadley and MPI model were
used for construction of climate change scenarios for the Zarqa River basin. Adjustment
statistics for difference between scenarios with doubling CO2 levels by 2040 and scenarios using
current CO2 levels for the MPI and Hadley models are presented in Table 37.

35

MPI model

Temperature (C)

30

Hadley model

25

Observed

20
15
10
5
0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Months

Figure 52: Comparison of baseline 1960-2000 average mean monthly temperature and 1
CO2 GCM scenarios for Zarqa River Basin

Table 37: Statistical adjustment for difference between 2xCO2 and current (1xCO2) as
estimated Hadley and MPI models for Zarqa River basin.
Month

January
February
March
April

Hadley Model
Temperature Precipitation
Difference
Ratio
1.43
0.73
0.98
0.84
1.29
1.05
0.71
1.28

MPI Model
Temperature Precipitation
Difference
Ratio
1.04
1.07
0.49
0.64
0.37
1.28
1.17
0.91

115

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Average

0.31
0.95
0.31
0.5
0.8
1.11
0.52
1.16
0.85

1.5
--------0.87
0.79
0.7

1.37
2.29
2.26
2.74
2.51
2.91
1.94
1.21
1.63

1.77
--------1.37
0.88
0.83

4.3.5 Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources of Jordan

The overall picture that emerges from the limited literature on Jordan and from IPCC (2007a)
projections indicates that water availability will be highly sensitive to climate change. Climate
change will have significant impacts on freshwater; affecting both availability of freshwater and
frequency of floods and droughts in Jordan. Climate change might undermine national
development plans, affect human security and livelihoods, significantly impact agriculture,
tourism and industry and act as a push factor in population movements and migration.
Furthermore, climate change is expected to negatively impair water quality (pollution of surface
water and seawater intrusion to groundwater aquifers). The expected changes will undoubtedly
have impacts on all the socio-economic and environmental goods and services that depend on
these variables either directly or indirectly.
Moreover, a warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both
floods and droughts (Wetherald and Manabe, 2002). Drought affected areas will probably
increase, and extreme precipitation events, which are likely to increase in frequency and
intensity, will augment flood risk. Increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts will
also have implications for sustainable development (IPCC, 2007a). Water shortage is already the
main constraint in most countries of the Middle East such as Jordan, and IPCC model
simulations indicate that water scarcity may worsen substantially as a result of future changes
in climatic patterns. The change in the value of surface runoff will depend on the changes in
temperatures and precipitation, among other variables. A study conducted by Abdulla and ALOmari (2008) showed that rising temperature by 2-4 C in Jordan will reduce the flow of Zarqa
river between 12 and 40 %.
Climate change may significantly degrade surface water quality that intense rainfalls may
generate significant surface runoff that may carry significant sediment loads containing
pesticides, fertilizers, and wastes.
This will increase siltation in steams lakes and
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impoundments. Warmer water temperatures may have further direct impacts on water
quality, such as reducing dissolved oxygen concentrations. Cold-water species, such as most
salmon and trout, are particularly susceptible to warm water temperatures, and increasingly
frequent warm water conditions could bring new challenges to the way managed river systems
are controlled. Where stream flows and lake levels decline due to evaporative water losses, the
salinity of surface waters, especially in lakes and reservoirs with long residence times could
increase. These stresses on water quality will increase if climate change leads to longer dry
spells.
Abdulla et al. (2009) investigated the sensitivity of the Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW) (the
second largest river basin in Jordan) to potential climate change. The methodology adopted is
based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under alternative climate change
scenarios. Utilizing the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) modeling environment,
scenarios representing climate conditions with 20% change in rainfall, and 1oC , 2oC and 3.5oC
increases in average temperature were simulated and assessed. The study shows that climate
warming can dramatically impact runoffs and groundwater recharge in the ZRW. However the
impact of warming can be greatly influenced by significant changes in rainfall volume. In
another study, Abdulla and Al Omari (2008) investigated the impact of the climate change on
the monthly runoff of the ZRW (Jordan) using the Surface-inFiltration-Baseflow (SFB)
conceptual rainfall runoff model, and application of climate change scenarios (GCMs and
incremental scenarios). The climate changes were imposed with twelve hypothetical scenarios.
Two of these scenarios were based on the predictions of general circulation models (GCMs)
namely Hadley and MPI models (Table 2). The other ten scenarios are incremental scenarios
associated with temperature increased by +2C and +4C and changes in precipitation of 0%,
+10%, +20%, -10%, and 20%. These scenarios were used as a basis for observing causal
relationships among runoff, air temperature, and precipitation. Both sets of climate change
scenarios resulted in decreases in monthly runoff. Also, the timing of the peak flow is not
changed but the magnitudes of these peaks are reduced. Differences in hydrological results
among all climate cases are due to wide range of changes in climate variables. For example, the
GCM scenarios for 2x CO2 obtained from the Hadley and the MPI models resulted in similar
possible future river flows. Both models showed that the increase in temperature would reduce
the monthly runoff for the rainy season except for April (no change) and May (increase). The
overall trend indicated that mean annual runoff will be reduced by approximately 12% (for the
Hadley Model) and 40% (for the MPI model).
The percent changes of annual mean runoff as a function of temperature and precipitation
changes are shown in Table 38. The largest change in annual runoff in ZRW (reduced by 60% of
the current level) occurred when combining a +3.5oC with a 20% change in precipitation.
These results are similar to those reported by other researchers in the Middle East. For the
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incremental scenarios with temperature change from +2oC to +4oC and precipitation reduced
by 10%, the annual runoff will be deceased from about 40 to 60%. With decreasing
precipitation the effect could be critical, particularly during long and extreme droughts.
However, for incremental scenarios with temperature changes from +2oC to +4oC, and
precipitation increased by 10%, the annual runoff shows a decrease from 10 to 30% (Table 38).
The annul runoff in the ZRW will increase to approximately 20% under the incremental scenario
in which the temperature +2oC and precipitation increased by 20% (Abdulla and Al Omari, 2008)
Table 38 summarizes the potential impact of climate change on surface water in terms of
corresponding changes in the mean annual flow. The results in this table were based on the
national communication reports to UNFCCC as well as published studies by research intuitions.

Table 38: Projected change in annual surface runoff in Jordan

Precipitation
change %
- 20%
-10%
0.0%
+ 10%

No change
-25% to -20.8 %
-12.2 to -10 %
0.0%
+12 to + 16.6 %

Projected Temperature Change

+1C
+ 2C
-32.5% to -21.6 %
- 22 % to -52%
-40% to -13.2 %
-40% to -14%
-10% to -1.2%
-2.4% to -25%
+ 15 to + 33%
+ 13.5 to + 20%

+ 3.5 C
-60% to - 24 %
-50% to-15.5%
-35% to -4.2%
-30% to + 11.1%

4.3.6 Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Resources of Jordan

There has been very little research on the impact of climate change on groundwater (Alley,
2001; Kundzewicz et al., 2007). There has been limited work on how climate change might
affect groundwater in Arid and semi-arid regions including the Arab Region. Effects of climate
change on recharge need to consider changes in precipitation variability and inundation
(Khiyami et al., 2005). Locally, recharge is a function of the precipitation, both in amount and
timing, the soil and vadose zone properties, evaporation, and transpiration. Recharge can also
be greatly affected by changes in land use, such as going from grassland or woodland to
agriculture. Outside of soil and vadose zone properties, climate change is expected to affect all
of these factors. The amount and timing of precipitation was previously discussed. Increases or
decreases in evaporation are a function of temperature as well as humidity, which is tied to
precipitation. Globally, increased CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to decrease transpiration
(Betts et al., 2007, and Leipprand and Gerten, 2006, both as cited by Kundzewicz et al., 2007);
however, transpiration will vary locally depending on the local changes in temperature,
precipitation, and vegetation type. Local increases in evaporation and transpiration could cause
increased salination of soils.
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The IPCC noted that there is no ubiquitous trend in groundwater systems that can be directly
correlated to climate change, primarily because of the lack of data (Kundzewicz et al., 2007).
We believe this is due, in part, to the uncertainties in estimating recharge and teasing out what
component of recharge is natural or influenced by land use change let alone changes in climate,
especially when those changes, current and projected, are of a much less magnitude than
natural variations. Furthermore, in many aquifers, it takes time for water to reach the water
table, and the water that reaches the entirety of the water table represents an integration of
past climatic conditions over years, decades, and perhaps centuries.
The consumption of groundwater is likely to become unsustainable. Already in many parts of
the world certainly beyond the arid regions where the problem is most common aquifer
drawdown is such that future reliance cannot be placed on this resource. According to the IPCC
the unsustainable depletion of groundwater will likely be worsened by reduced surface water
infiltration in the arid and semi-arid zones. In addition, the increase in the intrusion of salt
water to coastal aquifers from sea level rise will further reduce the availability of usable ground
water (IPCC, 2007f).
Climate change could affect groundwater resources by affecting recharge, pumping, natural
discharge, and saline intrusion. Some of these effects are direct, and some are indirect.
Recharge is an obvious parameter that is affected by climate change as it is closely tied to
precipitation. If there is more precipitation, there will probably be more recharge, and if there
is less precipitation, there will probably be less recharge. Moreover, sea-level rise will extend
the area of saline groundwater, resulting in a decrease in freshwater availability for humans
and ecosystems in coastal areas (Bobba, et al., 2000). In addition, groundwater recharge will
decrease considerably in some already water stressed regions (Doll and Florke, 2005).
According to a global study, recharge is expected to increase 2 percent worldwide (Dll and
Flrke, 2005). There is an overall increase in recharge because it is expected that there will be
an overall increase in global precipitation (more water is in global water cycle because of
melting ice). However, just as there will likely be areas with increased precipitation and areas
with decreased precipitation, there will be areas with increased and decreased recharge
depending not only on the precipitation patterns but also on the local hydrogeology
Climate change may have negative impact on the quality of groundwater. In coastal zones for
example, changing recharge patterns, including reduced long-term recharge and/or temporally
variably recharge, coupled with rising sea-level will increase the likelihood of seawater intrusion
thereby degrading the water quality in the aquifers. Moreover, increase sea level would also
lead to significant problems of dislocation of population. In Saudi Arabia, it is expected that the
sea water level will increase by 50 cm and this will result in losing 3747 hectare of costal area.
In Bahrain, raising sea water level will result in loosing 5%-10% of total area of the country.
119

Climate change is likely to affect pumping in aquifers. Increases in temperature are expected to
increase the demand for water unless increases in precipitation offset that increased demand.
The increase in municipal and industrial use is likely to be less than five percent by the 2050s
(Mote et al., 1999, and Downing et al., 2003, both as cited by Kundzewicz et al., 2007). Global
irrigation demand is projected to increase from 1 to 3 percent by the 2020s and 2 to 7 percent
by the 2070s (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). Decreases in surface water supply due to climate
change may also increase groundwater use (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). If surface water resources
become temporarily or permanently unreliable, then groundwater, generally less susceptible to
climate variations than surface water, may become the preferred water supply, thus increasing
pumping. Climate change could also affect the natural discharge of water from aquifers to
springs, streams, and lakes. Setting aside, for the moment, the effects increased pumping have
on natural discharge, a decrease in transpiration with increased CO2 could result in increased
spring and base flow to rivers and streams. However, depending on how and where the
phreatophytes get their water (solely from the saturated zone or a combination of the
saturated and unsaturated, or vadose zone), increased temperatures and decreased rainfall
could increase groundwater transpiration and thus decrease spring flow and base flow.
Increased pumping due to climate change could also appreciably decrease natural discharge
and will very likely be the primary driver for decreased natural discharge, especially if
groundwater becomes the preferred source of water.
Preliminary climate change and climate variability scenarios for Jordan indicate that rainfall will
become intense and dry spells will become more pronounced. Increased rainfall intensity, is
expected to lead to reducing infiltration and potential aquifer charge. The potential impact of
climate change on groundwater was assessed in terms of corresponding changes in the mean
annual groundwater recharge in Zarqa River Watershed-Jordan (Abdulla et al., 2009). Similarly,
the potential impact of climate change on Azraq aquifer was assessed as part of the First
National Communication Report to UNFCCC. The potential sensitivity of aquifer recharge to
precipitation is summarized in Table 39. As can be seen the increase in surface temperature and
reduction in rainfall will result in 32-57.5 percent reduction in recharge in an aquifer located in
Jordan.
The results of these two studied are summarized in Table 39. The results indicated that if there
is no change in rainfall and there is an increase in temperature by 1C increase, groundwater
recharge will be reduced by 3.5%. These values reflect the increase in evapotranspiration rates
expected as temperature increases. If temperature increase is accompanied with decrease in
rainfall, the reduction in groundwater recharge will be obviously higher. A reduction of 10% in
rainfall results in a 32.3% reduction in groundwater recharge if temperature does not change
and a 33.7 to 38.9% reduction if temperature increases by 3.5C (Table 39). The impact will be
much greater for higher reductions in rainfall. A 20% reduction in rainfall would reduce
120

groundwater recharge by 52.4% under no change in temperature and 57.5% reduction would
be observed if temperature increases by 3.5C (Table 4).
Increases in rainfall are expected to produce significant increases in runoff and groundwater
recharge. A 10% increase in rainfall is expected to result in 41.5% increases in groundwater
recharge, given no change in temperature. A3.5C increase in temperature would reduce the
recharge by 26.9%. Doubling the increase in rainfall to 20% with no increase in temperature
results in 89.8% increase in groundwater recharge (Table 39).

Table 39: Projected change in groundwater recharge in Jordan

Precipitation
change %
- 20%
-10%
0.0%
+ 10%

No change

Projected Temperature Change

+1C
+ 2C

+ 3.5 C

-52.4 %

-54.1 %

- 56 % to -49%

- 57.5 % to 51.9 %

-32.3 %

-34.1 %

-36.2% to -30.3%

-33.7 to -38.9%

0.0%

-3.5%

- 6.6% to -4.4%

-10.5% to -8.6%

+ 41.5 %

+ 37.3%

+29% to + 33.2%

+24% to + 26.9%

4.3.7 Conclusion and Recommendations

This section summarizes the climate variability, climate change projects and impacts on both
surface and groundwater resources in Jordan. The study was based on local studies either on
national level (Communication Reports to the UNFCCC) or from research intuitions. Other
sources of information were reports published by international agencies like the IPCC, UNDP,
UNEP, World Bank etc. In addition, limited individual published research articles in some Arab
countries were also reviewed. The objective of this study was to summarize some important
vulnerability issues water resources of Jordan associated with the present and potential future
hydrological responses due to climate change.
Unfortunately, water stress in Jordan is becoming a significant challenge for many sectors. The
situation is made worse where poor management practices collide with declining availability
occasioned by climate change and climate variability. From the above review, it can be
concluded that Jordans water resources is highly sensitive to climate change. Water resources
management in Jordan that is already severely water stressed faces new challenges and new
opportunities. Climate change will affect water scarcity and sustainable supply. It will:

Increase water shortages due to changes in precipitation patterns and intensity. In

particular, Jordan is expected to become substantially drier. Reduced precipitation in
some arid regions could trigger exponentially larger drops in groundwater tables.
121

Increase the vulnerability of ecosystems due to temperature increases, changes in

precipitation patterns, frequent severe weather events, and prolonged droughts.
These factors, in turn, will further diminish the ability of natural systems to filter water
and create buffers to flooding.
Affect the capacity and reliability of water supply infrastructure due to flooding, and
extreme weather. Most existing water treatment plants and distribution systems were
not built to withstand expected increased frequency of severe weather due to climate
change. Current infrastructure often does not have the capacity to fully capture this
larger volume of water, and therefore will be inadequate to meet water demands in
times of sustained drought.

Assessment of Existing Programs

This section intends to assess two existing programs/activities in the water sector aiming at
improving water efficiency and assess the cost-effectiveness of them.

5.1 Decentralization/Corporatization of Water and Sanitation Services

5.1.1 Case Description

Jordan is considered a leading country among the southern Mediterranean countries in Private
Sector Participation (PSP) and corporatization in the water sector, with the aim of
decentralizing the water utilities and improving efficiency. The reduction in water losses and
cost reduction are key indicators used to measure the impact of corporatization. Currently,
About 40% of its population receives water and wastewater services from a private provider
(Perard, 2008). With the increasing pressure on the governmental institutions to improve
productivity, the Jordanian government began its privatization program in 1997 as part of a
general reform process (Al-Zubi, 2006). In the water sector, the decline in international
assistance and the seeking of greater efficiency and new technologies made the government
look towards the involvement of the private sector (Al-Jayyousi, 2003). MWI and WAJ involved
the private sector in several forms and sectors as summarized in Table 40.
The adaptation of PSP in the Jordanian water sector started in 1999 with the management
contract of the largest water utility of the Greater Amman. The signed performance based
contract with Lyonnaise des EauxMontgomery Watson and Arabtech Jardaneh (LEMA) aimed
to improve operating effectiveness, water supply reliability and water quality, to reduce nonrevenue water and complaints response time and to attract capital for infrastructure
rehabilitation (NRW), (Al-Jayyousi, 2003). The contract was planned to be for 4 years has been
extended to the end of 2006 when the conditions were suitable to establish a limited liability
company called Miyahuna. The company is owned by WAJ and managed based on the modern
122

commercial principles and private sector practices. WAJ is responsible for providing the
company with the bulk water supply and wastewater treatment in Al-Samra WWTP. Monitoring
Miyahunas performance was assigned to PMU which is foreseen to be more independent as a
formal regulatory agency (USAID, 2006).
Unlike Miyahuna, the fixed assets are transferred to Aqaba Water Company (AWC) established
in Aqaba Governorate in Aug 2004 as its revenue covers its total cost (OPEX and CAPEX), thus it
can afford the future capital investment required. To ensure proper coordination with
municipal plans Aqaba Development Company (ADC) owned a share of 15% in AWC to be as a
partner with WAJ. A similar partnership with Greater Amman Municipality is envisaged for
Miyahuna in a later stage (USAID, 2006). Other forms of PSP were introduced in the Jordanian
water sector as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) based in Al-Samra wastewater treatment plant
(WWTP) and Disi water convey due to the difficulties in financing these projects (see Table 40
for the other PSP forms).
Prior to commercializing the water utilities and establishing companies, the decision makers
preferred to reform the utilities through adapting management contact, managing consulting or
service contract options as the case in Amman, NGWA and Madaba respectively. In addition,
similar initiatives for the other utilities are ongoing. However, in order to ensure satisfactory
private sector performance, it is important to measure it through the establishment of effective
regulatory frameworks, performance indicators and governance systems.

Table 40: PSP main initiatives in the Jordanian water sector

Location Date

Amman

Aug 1999Dec 2006

As-Samra 2002-2027

Project
cost (M JD)

Sector

Type of contract Private contractor

Water and WW
services

Management
Contract

LEMA Consortium

WWTP

BOT

Degremont-Morganti 120

NGWA

May 2006April 2009

Water and WW
services

Managing
Consulting

Severn Trent and CEC

Aqaba

Aug 2004

Water and WW
services

Public private
company

AWC (85% WAJ &

15% ADC)

ZaraMain

2001-2007

Water treatment
DBO
& supply

Ondeo-Degremont

Madaba

2006-2009

Billing &
collection

Service contract

Engicon

Amman

Jan 2007

Water and WW

Public private

Miyahuna (100%

1.6 /yr

1.8 /yr
1.5*
89
0.3 /yr
3
123

Disi

2008-2033

services

company (O&M) WAJ)

Water supply

BOT

Gama Enerji A.S

Sources: USAID, 2008; Perard, 2006; Al-Zubi, 2006; Abu-Shams and Rabadi, 2003.

770

* estimated

Except As-Samra WWTP BOT, Zarqa-Main DBO and Disi BOT, all the remaining contribute to
the direct improvement of water utility efficiency. As mention above, NRW is a key indicator
that is envisaged to be improved as a result of PSP. A quick look at the historical NRW in each
water utility in Jordan shown in Figure 53, it can be concluded that Aqaba, Amman, Irbid,
Mafraq, Madaba, Jarash and Ajloun have demonstrated significant improvement in NRW.
Figure 54 illustrates this in different and better presentation, where the net change of NRW
over 2001-2009 for each water utility is drawn. The other utilities did not witness same trend of
improvement, on contrast the majority has increased NRW.
80%

Jordan

NRW

Irbid

70%

Jarash
60%

Ajloun
Mafraq

50%

Amman
Zarqa

40%

Balqa
30%

Madaba
Karak

20%

Tafileh
Ma'an

10%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Aqaba

Figure 53: Historical Nonrevenue Water (NRW) in Jordans water utilities

124

30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Irbid

Jarash Ajloun Mafraq Amman Zarqa

Balqa Madaba Karak

Tafileh Ma'an Aqaba Jordan

Figure 54: NRW change over 2001-2009 in Jordans water utilities

Obviously, it can be seen strong trend in the NRW improvement and the introduction of PSP in
those water utilities witnessed the improvement. Of course, this improvement is most likely to
be influenced by other factors such as the water networks rehabilitation, the density of
subscribers, water supply availability per capita, the type of customers (small or large, as the
case in Aqaba which has few large customers consume most of the water supply), etc.
Therefore, there is a need to find another approach to measure water utility efficiency that
accounts for the combined influence of all these factors. Al-Assad and Sauer (2010) carried out
an assessment of the Performance of Water Utilities in Jordan, in which the relative
performance of the Jordanian water utilities is measured and the major factors behind their
inefficiencies are investigated. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Tobit model were used at
two stages to assess the Jordanian water utilities. At the first stage DEA as a comparative
performance measurement tool was used to evaluate the utilities efficiency and to investigate
the utilities scale effect on efficiency. At the second stage Tobit model is applied to determine
the impact of the non-controllable factors on utilities inefficiencies where the efficiency score
is the dependent variable in the regression.
The results of the assessment showed that Aqaba and Jarash are the most efficient utilities in
the water sector compared with the others, while Amman (Miyahuna) is the most efficient
utility in the wastewater sector. The utility size has relatively moderate effect on the relative
performance. However, it is concluded that the medium utility size for water sector and large
utility size for wastewater sector is the most appropriate. Tobit model results indicate that
corporatization activities have a clear positive impact on efficiency improvement for both
125

sectors (water and wastewater). However, the assessment did not quantify the corporatization
impact on the utility performance.

5.1.2 Cost effectiveness

There are clear qualitative and quantitative evidences as described above that showed that
corporatization has positive impact on improving water utilities performance in Jordan.
However, there is neither a rigorous assessment made nor a direct approach available to
evaluate the whole benefit of this impact. Corporatization has many benefits that some of them
can directly be quantified such as NRW reduction, O&M cost reduction; while many others
cannot directly be quantified such as customers satisfaction increase, improve level of service,
etc. Out of all these benefits, it can be urged that NRW is the most significant benefit that also
could be easily quantified. On the other hand, many will argue that salary cost increases after
corporatization more than the normal increase, but this additional cost will not be incorporated
in the assessment as salary increase is considered a need to keep and attract professional staff
in the water sector. Thus, the cost effectiveness analysis will be based mainly on the benefit
accrued from reducing water losses (incremental water saving) and annual cost of
corporatization project (initial cost distributed on 5 years at 10% discount). Since the change in
NRW does not only occur as a result of corporatization, the assessment is also based on two
scenarios:
1. Scenario I: All the water saving is attributed to corporatization
2. Scenario II: 50% of the water saving is attributed to corporatization
Table 41 presents the inputs used to carry out the cost effectiveness analysis. The NRW ratio for
the year previous to the start date/year of corporatization is used as the base year value for
NRW. Each year change in NRW from the base year ratio is calculated to estimate then the
incremental water saving in volume. The total monetary value of water saving is evaluated at
current prices using a unit cost of water service provision estimated at 0.89 JD/m3 and the total
volume of water saving. These estimations are made for both scenarios and then the net
benefit is then estimated. As indicators for cost effectiveness Net Present Value (NPV) and
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are calculated. The NPV is estimated at a discount rate of 10%. The
results of the assessment are presented in Table 42, and the detailed analysis is presented in
Appendix I: Cost effective analysis. IRR should be used as the first indicator then the NPV to
remove the size influence on deciding which initiative is most cost effective. The assessment
showed that 2 out of the 5 corporatization initiatives are cost effective. The results showed that
establishing water companies is the most cost effective then other forms. IRR for Miyahuna

126

Company is considered high because the corporatization project cost is relatively small to its
size of operation.

Table 41: Cost effectiveness analysis inputs

Corporatization

Start Date End date

Annual Duration
cost (M JD) (year)

Base
year

Base year
NRW

Amman Management
Aug 1999 Dec 2006
Contract

1.6

1999

50.0%

NGWA Managing
Consulting

May 2006 April 2009

1.8

2005

43.5%

Aqaba Water
Company

Aug 2004 Dec 2009

0.4*

2004

29.9%

0.3

2005

45.1%

0.79*

2006

39.6%

Madaba PSP
Miyahuna Company

2006

2009

Jan 2007 Dec 2009

* As there is only initial cost, it is distributed on 5 years using 10% discount rate

Table 42: Cost effectiveness analysis results

Corporatization

Total water Total saving At 100% of saving At 50% of saving

saving (MCM)
(M JD)
NPV
IRR
NPV
IRR

Amman Management
Contract

29.07

25.87

5.49

27.3%

-1.15

4.8%

NGWA Managing
Consulting

1.36

1.21

-3.57

NA

-4.02

NA

Aqaba Water
Company

4.31

3.83

0.86

33%

-0.33

-2.1%

Madaba PSP

-0.39

-0.35

-1.19

NA

-1.07

NA

Miyahuna Company

9.53

8.48

4.41

186.4%

1.22

79.8%

NA: Not applicable as IRR cannot be calculated

127

5.2 Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM)

5.2.1 Case description

Participatory Irrigation Management, PIM, is an important approach to improve the

management efficiency of water resources, water conveyance and its use. Such improvements
bring about savings in water use, reduce losses, boost productivity per unit water flow, and
reduce the cost of production. Its role becomes all the more important for countries
undergoing water strain, particularly highly indebted countries, and for food exporting
countries that have to compete in domestic and foreign markets. Experience gained from
several countries employing PIM indicates that introducing participatory elements in the
relationship between decision makers (mostly government officials), stakeholders and end
users of water is an essential factor for success.
Governmental efforts towards an improved utilization of the scarce water resources focused on
water administration on one side, and on supply management on the other. A detailed account
of water administration and parallel legislation has been presented. Water management
focused on supply management before demand management started to gain attention in the
late 1990s. Concerted action that included the involvement of stakeholders was initiated in
1997 under a French sponsored project in the North Jordan Valley whereby farmers on a lateral
main were given jurisdiction over irrigation water distribution among themselves. Other
attempts were undertaken by the Jordan Valley Authority, JVA, under a German sponsored
project. More water users involvement was attempted in cooperation with the World Bank in
the early 2000.
Those attempts followed general guidelines provided by the World Bank and scored modest
success. Subsequent surveys and analyses of traditional management models within irrigation
communities throughout Jordan provided the basic understanding of more suitable starting
points for participatory management approaches in the Jordanian social and economic
environment. One major finding of these surveys was that situations and indigenous solutions
differ - even within Jordan - in a way that may call for more than one single, standardized
approach towards the introduction of water users' participation in management decision
making.
Meaningful steps toward introducing PIM to the Jordan Valley irrigation project were
attempted as part of Water Management in Irrigated Agriculture (WMIA) project undertaken by
the Jordan Valley Authority with support extended by GTZ, the Corporation for Technical
Cooperation of the Federal Republic of Germany. The following overview of the project
provides understanding of the starting point for shifting from a top-down oriented water
management towards PIM. The subsequent detailed analysis highlights the elements of the
underlying concept and explains the positive outcome of the project.
128

Jordanian attempts to consider end users' input in irrigation management in the Jordan Valley
were of two prones. The first started in 1998 with the so-called TO2 Pilot project in the area of
Adassiya and focused on the improvement of hydraulic features in on-farm water distribution.
The direct incorporation of farmers' views was restricted to a consultation via a rapid rural
appraisal in 2000. Elements of the project were changes in the management of the water
network by the JVA as well as in the technical set-up of irrigation within the farms. The JVA
contributed to the project by adjusting the capacity of flow limiters to the design value
(reduction from 9 l/s (liter per second) to 6 l/s), by improving its management of pumping
stations, distribution interfaces on the farm gate and by a more efficient control of irrigation
orders. Farmers profited from subsidized, improved irrigation equipment and additional
training. Results were, however, not satisfactory because of the social drag inherent in that
environment. Officially registered Water Users Communities (WUC), which did not exist in
Jordan prior to that date, were considered as a potential structural add-on for improving the
situation, but the majority of farmers in the pilot area seemed "to reject the transfer of the
management to a farmer's organization".
Another attempt was to involve farmers in irrigation management focused on a participation
role that goes beyond them receiving information and extension services on improved irrigation
methods. The project on "Water Resource Management in Irrigated Agriculture" (WMIA), which
started in 2001 with support from GTZ, tries to support the creation of farmer-owned Water
Users Associations, WUAs, in the Jordan Valley by building on traditional and informal
cooperation structures in rural societies in Jordan. The attained results so far support the
expectation that the adopted approach may bridge the predominantly technical improvements
in water resource management pursued by the above TO2 project and its follow-on Kafa'h
project which started in 2003.
5.2.2 Cost effectiveness analysis

In all sixteen areas with WUA which are distributed throughout the Jordan Valley (includes
southern Ghors south of the Dead Sea), farmers and JVA state a considerable improvement of
the situation. Farmers are satisfied with a better water distribution and JVA generally admits
that their duty has become much easier. Both farmers and JVA state that efficient water
distribution requires organized water user communities. The increasing number of WUAs and
the related expansion of irrigated surface within farm units under their management prove the
economic and social viability of the undertaking, and the sincere positive outlook by the
beneficiaries and JVA alike. The thorough analysis of the current situation in the wake of the
WMIA project identified in particular three objectives as the basis for economic improvements
in irrigated agriculture and the use of water resources:

129

1. an improved management of irrigation services in terms of reliability of infrastructure

and water delivery,
2. A technically rehabilitated and improved water distribution network, and,
3. A responsiveness of water distribution to the demand of the individual farms.
To assess the improvement of water services under the WUA format four indicators are
identified. These are: (a) the percentage of operational water meters and (b) the joint control
of water consumption by farmers and the JVA, (c) the number of farm units where water
consumption deviates from target volumes, and, (d) the recurrence of repair and maintenance
incidents in the pressurized water conveyance system per year. Using these indicators, the
current state after 3 years of first experience with WUAs and the attained level of PIM can be
described as follows:
(a)

Regular water distribution depends on an internal control of flow and allocations to the
agricultural units. A visual inspection of flow in the Jordan Valley system is not possible
because water flows pressurized in buried pipes. The volumetric checks can be achieved
cumulatively with bulk water meters installed at the outlet of pumping stations and
individually by water meters at the farm turnout assembly. These farm turnouts had
formerly been the subject of wide-spread recurrent manipulation, destruction of water
meters, and removal of flow limiting devices. A first activity in the northern areas (with
relatively clean water) was the rehabilitation of water meters following the request of
farmers and their declared commitment to protect them. In this regard, the percentage of
operational water meters remains in the north close to 100% as compared to practically
nil before the WUA creation. Only one Association has a long history of 3 years; the others
are more recent and may not yet be considered for a credible evaluation.

(b)

Farmers in areas under the management of WUAs check their water meters at regular
intervals - usually biweekly - in all communities, and the announced water consumption is
in line with the expectations for the relevant community areas by the JVA.

(c)

The JVA uses - among other criteria - target values of water consumption as a criterion for
imposing penalties. If a water meter shows excessive values, penalties are imposed and
made public within the community. The Operation and Maintenance, (O&M) Directorates register the number of penalties and communicates them to the WUAs. In
most of the areas the number of penalties is largely reduced immediately following the
establishment of a water user association. Occasional relapses of penalties are subject to
discussions in meetings between the WUAs and the JVA.

130

(d)

Areas under the joint management of WUAs and the JVA show a significant drop in the
cases of destruction of elements in the water distribution infrastructure, i.e. water
meters, valves and pipes. Causes for flaws in the water distribution are subject to
discussions in the regular joint meetings. These discussions provide the JVA with useful
information on technical problems in the local water distribution network, and reduce
repair frequencies and costs. The registered maintenance cases in Turn Out (TO) 28 area
for example, were until 2002 on a level of about 425 cases per year. With an increasingly
efficient cooperation between the JVA and the WUA that number dropped to about 200
cases annually, i.e. a drop of more than 50%. In another area of the middle Jordan Valley
(TO 50), the rate of 175 maintenance cases in 2003 dropped to 60 in 2004, about one
third of the former value.

A comprehensive quantitative evaluation of contributions to the second objective, i.e. the

water distribution according to the demand of individual farms, is not yet possible due to the
lack of representative and quantitative information on farming systems before and after the
introduction of the participatory elements in irrigation management. But observations on the
changes in decision-making by farmers provide indirect indications. Farmers compensate risks
in water supply, as practiced under the earlier management set-up by the JVA, by:
(a)

the construction of water ponds for intermediate water storage of water, which does not
only reduce the available area for cultivation but is also a source for secondary pollution
that has an impact on filter and on-farm irrigation systems

(b)

over-irrigation, i.e. the attempt to store as much as possible water in the soil, which
causes not only excessive water consumption but also negatively affects plant
development and thus yields and

(c)

refraining from investments that would otherwise be profitable under a reliable water
supply .

Observations from the pilot TO 28 show that about 50% of the farms abandoned ponds and
connected their field irrigation system directly to the Farm Turnout Assembly, FTA, within 2
years after the establishment of their WUA. The already stated decrease of cases of excessive
water use compared to the JVA's target values of water consumption point to the decrease of
over irrigation. An example from two further selected pilot areas shows that the number of
greenhouses, which are a typical investment in irrigated agriculture, increased significantly in
the years after the introduction of participatory elements to water management (Table 43).
Two additional reactions of farmers to counteract risk from water supply are the introduction
of fallow on parts of their fields as a buffer zone and the choice of crops that are less profitable,
but also are less sensitive to periods of drought. A quantification of effects that materialized
131

from participatory management is not yet possible due to the lack of representative data on
the pilot areas, but a case study from an irrigation area helps to highlight the implications.
The study compared the optimal use of water and irrigated area in extent and crops under the
assumption of a) the water supply under full control of the JVA and b) the steering of water
supply by a farmers' committee, which considers individual farm demands. The model-based
analyses considered the observed cropping patterns before the introduction of WUAs as the
basis for the first assumption and allowed for optimal cropping patterns for the second. Results
anticipated a significant increase in crop intensity and cultivated area (Table 44).
A further important effect was the change in the elasticity of water prices. Model results and
the consequential functions of water demand indicated that participatory irrigation
management substantially increased the profitability of sensitive reactions to changes in water
prices (Table 44). This implies that PIM does not only contribute to improved incomes from
agricultural production but also supports the market-driven optimal allocation of the scarce
water resources throughout the Jordanian economy.
5.2.3 Conclusions

The successful and promising process of introducing participatory structures into the irrigation
scheme of the JVA allows already for some useful suggestions on required elements in the
management, even if the process in Jordan has not yet matured. Experience of the WMIA
project points to the following cornerstones:

Promotional programs for explaining the advantages of participatory irrigation

management are essential initial activities for successful transfer programs. This can be
done through meetings, workshops, and the distribution of pamphlets.

The election of a WUAs first set of directors is a critical action for the future of the
association. When the directors are representative of the membership and have
leadership capacity and managerial spirit, the WUA will likely be successful.

Successful transfer requires an appropriate legal framework. This framework must

clearly define the rights to water, forms of organization, the responsibilities of each
party, and the manner in which activities should be regulated.

A transfer program should be accompanied by continuous training for both WUA

directors and their operating staff.

The transfer of responsibilities and tasks from governmental organizations - like the JVA
in Jordan - to WUAs requires a concurrent restructuring of the public agency. Staff, skills
and management structures will have to be redirected to the new fields of services,
132

which comprise the solution of operational problems, negotiations on questions of

water management between WUAs, the technical and organizational support of WUAs
and the enforcement of national water laws.

Table 43: Number of greenhouses in selected pilot areas of the Jordan Valley

Number of greenhouses in areas with water user communities and percentage increase
Area 2003 (base line)
2004
2005
TO 50 3245 (100%)
3850 (119%)
4459 (137%)
TO 55 1678 (100%)
1962 (117%)
2067 (123%)
Source: GTZ (2004).

Table 44: Model-based estimations of impacts from Participatory Irrigation Management (case
study from the southern Jordan Valley)

Indicators
Price elasticity
Total cultivated area
Crop intensity
Total Revenue

Unit
%
Ha
%
US$

Before PIM
1.3
268.6
82
844,532

After PIM
1.7
388.3
118
1,138,979

Source: Al-Habbab & Al-Absi (2003)

133

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Appendices

139

7.1 Appendix I: Cost effective analysis

Amman Management contract
Water supply
NRW
Saving from base year
Annual cost (M JD)
Total saving at current prices (M JD)
Net cash flow (M JD)
Net cash flow at 50% of saving (M JD)

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
IRR
91,337,107 93,601,069 94,091,543 106,251,701 118,536,066 119,869,739 121,953,318
50.3%
52.9%
47.5%
48.5%
44.6%
42.5%
39.6%
1,557,546
6,450,205
8,964,941 12,695,214
(260,951) (2,733,530) 2,399,103
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
25.87
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
24.3
27.3%
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
11.3
4.8%

NGWA Managing Consulting

Water supply
NRW
Saving from base year
Annual cost (M JD)
Total saving at current prices (M JD)
Net cash flow (M JD)

2006
59,578,566
43.0%
252,122
(1.8)

2007
62,096,356
41.5%
1,253,514
(1.8)

(1.8)

Aqaba Water Company

Water supply
NRW
Saving from base year
Annual cost (M JD)
Total saving at current prices (M JD)
Net cash flow (M JD)
Net cash flow at 50% of saving (M JD)
Madaba PSP

(1.8)

2008
66,207,197
43.7%
(142,748)
(1.8)
1.21
(0.6)

IRR

#NUM!

2005
15,012,503
27.5%
361,864
(0.4)

2006
14,285,763
24.6%
761,274
(0.4)

2007
15,403,611
25.5%
690,528
(0.4)

2008
15,872,720
23.6%
1,012,336
(0.4)

(0.4)
(0.4)

(0.4)
(0.4)

(0.4)
(0.4)

(0.4)
(0.4)

2009
16,602,699
21.0%
1,481,767
(0.4)
3.83
3.4
1.5

2006

2007

2008

2009

IRR

IRR

33.0%
-2.1%

Water supply
NRW
Saving from base year
Annual cost (M JD)
Total saving at current prices (M JD)
Net cash flow (M JD)
Miyahuna Company
Water supply
NRW
Saving from base year
Annual cost (M JD)
Total saving at current prices (M JD)
Net cash flow (M JD)
Net cash flow at 50% of saving (M JD)

6,369,242
40.4%
299,192
(0.3)

6,862,897
45.8%
(44,397)
(0.3)

7,364,422
49.2%
(296,631)
(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

7,801,763
49.6%
(348,919)
(0.3)
(0.35)
(0.6)

2007

2008

2009

IRR

124,791,505 128,706,388 133,549,511

35.8%
37.9%
37.7%
4,766,524
2,209,237
2,556,069
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
9.53
(0.8)
(0.8)
8.7
(0.8)
(0.8)
4.0

#NUM!

186.4%
79.8%

141