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half of the 19th and first quarter of the 20th Centuries. The processes are
different; the economic laws, if you prefer an old-fashioned term, are
different. You can attempt to cite Bismarcks national unification,
protectionism and welfare programme, or the Meiji period (1868-1912) in
Japan, but their class bases were very different from China. The Junkers in
Prussia and Meiji (enlightened) restoration of the Emperor and the
oligarchy in Japan are not comparable to the CCP. Portrayal of the last 35
years as delivery of capitalism by a proxy midwife is frivolous; it fails to
explain the 70 million strong CCP or capture the complexity
and diversity of the processes sweeping across a 1.3 billion strong country. It is timely
that I repeat that this essay does not intend to eulogize or censure, only to depict
accurately.
President Xis anti-corruption campaign has netted 100,000 indictments
(Lankan readers note, I have not added three zeros) the vast majority are
politicians and officials. Party members have been prohibited from joining
golf clubs (where a lot of dicey deals are sealed) or indulging in
ostentatious banquets. There is a point to this Calvinism; overreach is
necessary to pull party and bureaucracy back from the appurtenances that
accompany graft. Its relevance to this essay is its political dimension;
these measures do not match a party that is an instrument of a
burgeoning capitalist class. There is more to it than that. I will not quarrel
with those who assert that China is not socialist; but to say it is, or is in
the process of becoming a capitalist state, at least in the way that we are
familiar with capitalism, is shooting from the hip.
Global impacts
The long recession that commenced in the banking and finance-capital
sectors in the US in Q3 2008, swept into Europe in 2010 and moved
further east to China in 2014-15. The US recovers briefly and then flops
again; Europe, except for the UK, is still very much in the doldrums; China
is in a bad way at this time of writing. I will not offer data about America
and Europe, readers are familiar with the predicament of these continents,
but a few words about the Chinese economic downturn are in order. It is
an all round downturn, GDP growth has plummeted from double digit
figures a few years ago to just over 6% in 2015 (maybe lower next year),
imports and exports are severely down, the Shanghai stock-market
buckled and was rescued by the state, the Yuan is falling and the threat of
deflation is peeping through cracks in the edifice. Tumult in American and
European capitalism is creating pangs in China and this in turn generates
paroxysms of contraction in mineral and raw material exporting countries.
Export and currency difficulties for Europe (Germany) and for the dollar
are a consequence. Its a mutually reinforcing descent.
The response of the CCP is mixed, it attempts to inject liquidity, rescue the
stock-market, and lower interest rates the usual tricks of the Fed and
ECB. But there is also pressure to withdraw deep into the vast indoors,
enhance consumption of the population (millions more dwelling units,
thousands more schools, investment on environment), turn resources
away from the capitalist sector towards localised projects, and enhance
military spending. This dichotomy of responses signals the strength the
platypus hypothesis. Not only China, this is also the parallel story of
Vietnam, tomorrow of Cuba and afterwards possibly Venezuela and Nepal.
Forecasting the consequences of the global political dimension, that is
radicalisation in the West, tension in flashpoints such as the South China
Sea and sour relations with Japan, is too much for one essay.
Radicalisation, whether leftist, ultra-nationalist or fascistic, elsewhere will
not ignite mass responses in China; such events will have much more
impact within the Party. China already has over 100,000 "mass incidents"
(protest marches and clashes with the authorities) a year in response to
local grievances, thats a different ball-game immune to Occupy-This-orThat activists and European election outcomes. But these events affect the
political elite and factions in the Party. Ideology retains its influence and
thats another reason why the leadership is cautious.
Posted by Thavam