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sian military has collapsed. That perception is at least five years out of date.
Certainly the Russians no longer have
the massive Red Army, but they do
have extremely competent units again,
new generations of missiles, new fighter
aircraft under development, and so on.
The United States has treaty relations
with Poland and the Baltic states. There
is no war on the horizon and perhaps
not even a Cold War, but given the unpredictability of history, it is difficult to
imagine a force configured for Fourth
Generation warfare dealing with Russian pressure on these NATO allies.
Then there is China. China is interested in trading. But it trades in waters
controlled by the U.S. Seventh Fleet.
It must import raw materials and export manufactured goods. To do this,
it is entirely dependent on the United
States willingness not to interdict that
flow of goods. That is probably a good
bet. On the other hand, the Chinese
are dealing with their very existence as a
vibrant global economy. It is a principle
of national security to focus on capabilities rather than intent, since intent can
change fast. The Chinese cant simply
bet on American good will.
Therefore, they are developing counters to the American naval force. Rather than try to build fleets of ships to do
thiswhich would take at least a generationthe Chinese are focusing on
the question of how the United States
might interdict the flow of goods.
They have conducted exercises in the
Straits of Malacca, and have developed
extensive land- and air-based anti-ship
missile capabilities to drive the Seventh
Fleet back from their coastal waters and
beyond. They are now building missiles
able to strike against the U.S. fleet as
real time, and a host of attendant technologies. Dealing with a Russian threat
on the north European plain requires
close air support that can survive in an
intense surface-to-air-missile environment, infantry of massively increased
lethality and survivability, and an entire
new sensor-to-shooter cycle for combating armored fighting vehicles. And
obviously, the force itself, the troops,
must be reconfigured for the emerging
mission.
None of these things can arrive on
the scene in a year or two. All of them
require research and development programs, testing, production, doctrine
development, and deployment cycles
that can take a decade. That means
that every decision made regarding the
force today is a bet on what the world
will look like in 10 years. Focusing on
Fourth Generation warfare is a bet that
the non-state actor will remain the primary threat to the United States.
It comes down to how lucky we feel.
If we feel that we have seen not only a
generational shift in warfare but also a
fundamental shift in how the international system works, and that both will
last a long time, then the key is to support asymmetric warfare. If you argue
either that the current shift is an illusion or that whatever the outcome we
must hedge our bets, then the answer is
to increase our spending on Fifth Gen-
Contributions to the Defense Education Trust Fund are tax deductible under the provisions of Sections 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Defense
Education Chairman: MajGen Larry S. Taylor, USMCR (Ret.). Committee: CAPT Gordon Bell, USCG (Ret.); Col Robin L. Davitt, USAFR; COL
Richard S. Eckstein, USAR; Maj Barbara D. Manouse, USAFR; COL William G. Willis, USAR; CAPT Henry E. Plimack, USCGR (Ret.), ex-officio
PAO; CDR William C. Doty, USCGR (Ret.), ExCom liaison; Mr. Steven J. Ford, ROAL representative; BG Louis Lee Myers Jr., ARNG (Ret.), National
Council liaison; LTC Robert Feidler, USAR, staff liaison; LtGen Dennis M. McCarthy, USMC (Ret.), publisher; Eric Minton, editor, ROA National
Security Report.
DEF Emeritus Board
Co-Chairs: CAPT Ned Kulp, USCGR (Ret.), and BG Louis Myers, ARNG (Ret.). Committee members: CAPT Henry Plimack, USCGR (Ret.); *BG
John McAllister, USAR (Ret.); *LTC Nate Allen, AUS (Ret.); CAPT Robert L. Pendleton, USCGR (Ret.); CAPT Joe Wielert, USCGR (Ret.); COL David Davenport, USAR; Maj Joylyn Grant, USAFR; Col John Loughran, USAF (Ret.); Col Paul Groskreutz, USAFR; CDR John Conant, USNR (Ret.); Lt
Col Judy Larson, USAFR; RADM Steve Yusem, USNR (Ret.).
* Deceased
60
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