Ranges (Up till 11.

35am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0744-81

EURJPY

132.045-54

USDJPY

122.735-123.04

EURGBP

0.70645-73

GBPUSD

1.5212-46

USDSGD

1.4156-1.4201

USDCHF
AUDUSD

1.0026-46
0.7061-0.7155

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.76-83
1150.7-1154.3

NZDUSD

0.6550-79

USDTWD

32.63-84

USDCAD

1.3225-68

USDCNH

6.3868-6.3930

AUDNZD

1.0759-1.0893

XAU

1086.6-1089.1

Key Headlines

Australia produced a strong set of labour report

for Oct. Everything from employment change to
participation rate. Our strategist Patrick Bennett
said this is equivalent to +770k in US payrolls!

Those doves, who called for RBA rate cut are

reversing ouch!

CNH vols continue to come under pressure in

the options space, macro guys were selling the
surface as well risk-reversals across the tenors.
Some blamed the poor liquidity in swap market
and of course, rangy USDCNH.

FX Flows
Australia produced a strong set of labour report for Oct.
Everything from employment change to participation
rate. Our strategist Patrick Bennett said this is
equivalent to +770k in US payrolls! From another view,
this Aussie labour report becoming volatile numbers.
AudUsd trade to 0.7117 instantly on those numbers from
0.7070. The pair continued to climb to 0.7150 (danger
lurks above) and we saw Asia prop accounts taking profit
above 0.7130s. There is a Aud1.3bn notional worth of
0.7200-option strike maturing today NY cut.
The other big mover is AudNzd. Jumped from 1.0778 to
1.0848 then triggered stops above 1.0850. Our rates
trader Pawan is riding with his position Pay 2-year Aud
vs receiving 2-year Nzd. Interest rates pointing the cross
to 1.11-handle.
Following
ECB
Draghis
disappointment
plus
Constancios remark on Dec meeting, early Tokyo names
were sellers of Usd pushed EurUsd into 1.0750s.
Thanks to Australia, this EurUsd got to 1.0781. There are
offers sitting from 1.0790 and into 1.0820s, been there
post-NFP. Just keep in mind, Draghi is speaking again
today at 9.30am CET .

They sold UsdJpy before Tokyo opened but no follow

through. EurJpy bids reported near 132.00-10 soaked up
the UsdJpy sales. Strong Aussie numbers encouraged
AudJpy demand and lifted UsdJpy towards 123-handle
where the exporters plus the Mrs Watanabes sold. I hear
macro names have been buying UsdJpy last 24 hours.
There is a option expiry at 123.35 NY cut today.
Canadian dollar tracks performance of oil and AudUsd.
Those who got hit in AudUsd were using UsdCad as
proxy knocking it to a low of 1.3225. There are bid
scattered into 1.31-handle and offers near 1.3.3-handle.

Asians
CNH vols continue to come under pressure in the
options space, macro guys were selling the surface as
well risk-reversals across the tenors. Some blamed the
poor liquidity in swap market and of course, rangy
USDCNH.
USDCNY fixed at 6.3628, in line with markets
estimates. Onshore has been stable and that helped
USDCNH. I hear offers are lined up near 6.4000 and
macro buyers on dips.

Who said what

China MOF: Oct fiscal spending Yuan1.35trln

China MOF: Oct fiscal revenue is Yuan1.44trln
China MOF: China faces difficulties in fiscal
income growth in next two months
Moodys: Chinas mid-year stock market
correction leads to market shifts
BOK: Economy to continue to recover
BOK: To monitor Fed and China
BOK: To monitor capital outflow, household
debt trend
BOK: To improve on consumer sentiment
BOK Lee: Current interest rate not a burden to
companies restructuring

News & Data

New Zealand Oct BusinessNZ Manufacturing

PMI slipped to 53.3 from 55.4
New Zealand Oct Food Prices M/M fell 1.2%
from -0.5%
Japan Oct PPI M/M fell 0.6% from -0.5%
Japan Oct PPI Y/Y down 3.8% from -3.9%
Japan Sept Machine Orders M/M rose 7.5%
from -5.7%
Japan Sept Machine Orders Y/Y down 1.7% from
-3.5%
Australia Nov Consumer Inflation Expectation
unchanged at 3.5%

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Australia Oct Employment Change up 58k from

-5.1k (exp. +15k)
Australia Oct Unemployment Rate at 5.9% from
6.2%
Australia Oct Full Time Employment Change
+40k from -13.9k
Australia Oct Part Time Employment Change up
18.6k from 8.9k
Australia Oct Participation Rate at 65.0% from
64.9%
Bank of Korea left rates unchanged at 1.5%

WSJ: Greeces Quiet Crisis

Maybe Athens cant help itself. No sooner had Alexis
Tsiprass government agreed to a last-minute deal to
save the Greek economy from collapse than it began
backsliding on the terms. Now the crisis threatens to
erupt again as Mr. Tsipras drags his feet on economic
reform while creditors withhold some 12 billion
($12.88 billion) in funds promised by Augusts bailout.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greeces-quiet-crisis1447287240?mod=wsj_nview_latest
Business Insider: Valeant and Bill Ackman must
face an insider trading lawsuit
A U.S. judge said Valeant Pharmaceuticals International
Inc and activist hedge fund manager William Ackman
must face a lawsuit accusing them of insider trading in
Allergan Inc before making an unsuccessful takeover bid
for the maker of Botox. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of
investors who sold Allergan shares in the two months
before the defendants on April 22, 2014 announced an
unsolicited $51 billion bid for Allergan. Pershing had by
then quietly amassed a 9.7 percent stake in Allergan,
which soared in value after the bid was announced.
Investors said Pershing bought those shares knowing
that Valeant was preparing a bid that could, and later
did, become hostile.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-valeant-ackmanmust-face-us-insider-trading-lawsuit-2015-11
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Telegraph: Saudi
Arabia risks destroying Opec and feeding the Isil
monster
The rumblings of revolt against Saudi Arabia and the
Opec Gulf states are growing louder as half a trillion
dollars goes up in smoke, and each month that goes by
fails to bring about the long-awaited killer blow against
the US shale industry.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/119894
69/Saudi-Arabia-risks-destroying-Opec-and-feedingthe-Isis-monster.html
FT: Brussels plans deposit guarantee fund by
2024

Brussels is drawing up plans to gradually siphon cash

away from national bank deposit guarantee schemes
over the next decade to fund a new eurozone-wide
insurance system, a move likely to trigger a bitter clash
with Germany. According to draft proposals from the
European Commission seen by the Financial Times, the
new European Deposit Insurance Scheme would
initially serve as a back-up for national guarantee funds.
But it would evolve via intermediate steps into a fully
mutualised system by 2024, the documents show.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/702b7f8c-888e-11e590de-f44762bf9896.html#axzz3r2gne136
AFR: Macro Currency Group says $A 'needs to
fall another 10pc'
The Australian dollar will dip into the 50s as the
economy attempts to rebalance while a dithering US
Federal Reserve committee's "irrational dream" of
normalising interest rates has set up the month of
December and 2016 for major turbulence. That's the
view of Mark Farrington, the head of the $US7.7 billion
macro hedge fund Macro Currency Group that trades
financial markets with an emphasis on studying how
policymakers act.
http://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/macrocurrency-group-says-a-needs-to-fall-another-10pc20151111-gkwh04
BBC: Spain's top court suspends Catalonia's
secession bid
Spain's Constitutional Court has suspended a motion
passed in the Catalan parliament earlier this week, which
backs independence from Spain. The court agreed to
hear the Spanish government's appeal against the
motion. The resolution passed on Monday called on the
Catalan regional assembly to aim for independence in 18
months. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy called the
motion a "blatant disregard for the state's institution...
they are trying to do away with democracy". He
announced the decision to involve the Constitutional
Court after an emergency cabinet meeting earlier on
Wednesday.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34792355
AFR - Mine disaster is BHP's 'minor' problem:
BHP shorter
The Samarco mine disaster is only a "minor" part of the
reason for the decline in the share price, said Qato
Capital founder Ben Silluzio. On Wednesday BHP shares
fell a further 3 per cent after a disastrous week for the
miner, which began with news two of the dams at the
BHP-owned iron ore mine in Brazil had collapsed. The
stock is more than 30 per cent off its 2015 March high.
Hedge fund manager Mr Silluzio, who has focused his
analysis on the company and has maintained a short
position in the stock, said the stock had further to fall.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

http://www.afr.com/business/banking-andfinance/hedge-funds/mine-disaster-is-bhps-minorproblem-bhp-shorter-20151111-gkwggj
WSJ:
1MDBs
Latest
Act:
Two
Obama
Fundraisers, One Fugee and $69 Million
1Malaysia Development Bhd. paid private-equity group
DuSable Capital Management LLC $69 million to buy its
stake in a joint venture to develop solar power plants in
the Southeast Asian country. The parties had signed an
agreement in April 2014 giving DuSable a 49% stake, but
1MDB agreed to buy out the firm six months later, before
construction had begun on any project, they said.
DuSable was founded in May 2013 by Frank White Jr., a
member of Mr. Obamas 2008 national finance
committee and a fundraiser for Hillary Clinton; Shomik
Dutta, a former special assistant at the White House who
worked previously as an investment banker; and Pras
Michel, one of the original members of the band the
Fugees.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysian-funds-latestact-two-obama-fundraisers-one-fugee-and-69-million1447292365?mod=wsj_nview_latest

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.