At last, a politician we can trust?

Inside Story

NATIONAL AFFAIRS

13/07/2015 3:35 am

1576 words

At last, a politician we can trust?

30 MARCH 2015

Once the natural party of

government, the Liberal Party
has been performing badly
across Australia for thirty years
or more, writes Tim Colebatch.
Mike Baird has shown the party
a way out
Right:
Fresh air: NSW premier Mike Baird with his wife
Kerryn in Manly yesterday. Jane Dempster/AAP
Image

ike Bairds victory in Saturdays NSW election is far more unusual than it looks. And if

Baird as premier continues as he has begun, he could become more unusual still and eventually,
come under party pressure to take that act to Canberra.
Consider two little-known facts:
1. Since the federal election in mid 2010, when Julia Gillard scraped back into power with the
support of the independents, Australia has had twelve federal, state or territory elections. In eight
of them, the voters threw the government out.
2. Since the long Liberal rule in Victoria ended way back in 1982, the Coalition has been out of
power more often than it has been in it: not only at federal level, but also in every single state.
Over the past thirty-three years, the Coalition has ruled New South Wales for just eleven years, and
spent twenty-two years in opposition. It has likewise spent just eleven years in government in
Victoria, twelve in Queensland though just ve of the past twenty-ve and nine in South
Australia (see below). At federal level, it has been in government for just fourteen years, and in
opposition for nineteen. Even in Western Australia and Tasmania, where it has done best, it has

http://insidestory.org.au/at-last-a-politician-we-can-trust

Page 1 of 4

At last, a politician we can trust? Inside Story

13/07/2015 3:35 am

spent more time out of power than in it.

The conclusion is inescapable. The Liberal Party used to be the natural party of government. But
since 1982, it has become the natural party of opposition.
In the face of all that, Baird has led his Coalition team to a second term in ofce with a comfortable
majority, roughly 55 per cent of the two-party vote, despite several issues working strongly against
him: his plan to partially privatise the states electricity transmission network, the threat of coalseam gas to farming, and the unpopularity of the Abbott government.
That is unusual, particularly after ve years in which government after government has been
defeated across Australia. In that time, voters have thrown out governments twice in succession in
Victoria, twice in succession in Queensland, and once each in New South Wales, Tasmania, the
Northern Territory and, of course, federally.
The voters meant to throw out a ninth government: a year ago in South Australia, the Weatherill
government was re-elected even though the Liberals won 53 per cent of the two-party vote.
But something like that often happens in South Australia, not because of a gerrymander the SA
electoral boundaries are rigorously fair but because the Liberal vote is concentrated in the
country and in Adelaides posh eastern and inner southern suburbs. They win seats in those places
with big majorities, while Labor just squeaks home in seat after seat on the other side of town. (The
best solution for the SA Liberals would be to get big donors to set up new private schools in the
western suburbs.)
Until Saturday, the only two governments voters have chosen to re-elect since 2010 are Colin
Barnetts Liberal government in Western Australia, re-elected in 2013 at the height of the mining
boom, and the LaborGreens coalition in the Australian Capital Territory, re-elected in 2012. But
then, its hard for Labor to lose an election in the ACT, although right now it seems to be doing its
best to lose the next one by building a $1 billion light railway that, on normal costbenet criteria,
will cost ACT taxpayers twice as much as the benets they can expect to get from it.
It would have been hard for Mike Baird to lose this election. In 2011, the smell of the Obeid affair
and years of poor government saw the Coalition swept into ofce with a national record swing of
16.5 per cent, and a record 64.2 per cent of the two-party vote. At that election alone, it gained
thirty-ve seats from Labor and the independents. Labor was left with just twenty seats in a
ninety-three-member Assembly, a primary vote of just 25.6 per cent, and a two-party vote of 35.8
per cent. How could Labor get back from there into ofce in just one election?
Queensland showed one way: all it took was a government as narrow, self-indulgent and
headstrong as Campbell Newmans, which decided that voters could be ignored, and governed

http://insidestory.org.au/at-last-a-politician-we-can-trust

Page 2 of 4

At last, a politician we can trust? Inside Story

13/07/2015 3:35 am

instead for a small cabal of like-minded chaps. But neither Barry OFarrell nor Mike Baird governed
that way.
By and large, they ran a sensible, moderate, centre-right government that gave voters something
like what it had promised, xed the budget without victimising particular groups, and kept its
political capital for when it really needed it, such as in pushing through privatisation of the poles
and wires.
But the main reason for the Coalitions big win on Saturday was the Baird factor. This was not a
vote for policies every poll found voters opposed his privatisation plans so much as a vote for
Mike Baird and his style of government. To many, he has become a breath of fresh air in the stale,
foul atmosphere of Australias political blame game.
Most of our political leaders churn out endless streams of vituperation, exaggeration, distortion
and ad hominem attack that turn off everyone except their partisans. Baird takes a novel approach:
he appears to tell the truth.
By and large, he answers the question he is asked. A viewer gets the sense he is telling you what he
genuinely believes. He is courteous, not bullying. He doesnt just slag opponents, he tries to
persuade you of the merits of doing it his way rather than theirs.
Nor does he pretend that he agrees with everything other Liberals do. He has made it clear that he
does not share the Abbott governments hostility to refugees, and that he supports the consensus
of climate science and wants serious action against global warming. When Joe Hockey revealed
that the federal government planned to get its budget back into surplus by shifting future growth
in hospital costs to the states surely the big sleeping issue of Australian politics Baird pointed
out quickly that it was simply shifting its budget problem to the states.
In short, Mike Baird is popular because he seems to be genuine, and to be someone you can trust.
The full story is complex. His Christian beliefs appear to be a huge inuence on his approach to
politics, and anyone interested in understanding the man should read an excellent prole by
Stephanie Wood two years ago in The Good Weekend.
Mike Baird reminds me of two other former Liberals. One is his father Bruce Baird, a decent,
intelligent man of principle who was blocked by the right from becoming NSW premier, and by
John Howard from becoming a federal minister. The other is Dick Hamer, premier of Victoria from
1972 to 1981. (Disclosure of interest: I have recently written Hamers biography, Dick Hamer: the
liberal Liberal.)
The Hamer parallel is an important one. Hamer was the last Liberal premier anywhere in Australia
to win three elections in a row and that was back in the 1970s. Like Baird, he was a politician of

http://insidestory.org.au/at-last-a-politician-we-can-trust

Page 3 of 4

At last, a politician we can trust? Inside Story

13/07/2015 3:35 am

the centre-right who became someone voters felt they could trust. They saw him as an intelligent,
reliable, hard-working man who was genuinely concerned about ordinary people, and made
decisions in their interest, not his own.
The real problem with Bairds plan to sell the states electricity assets to build infrastructure is not
that it will raise power prices, as Labor claimed; it wont. The real problem is that his $20 billion
will build only a small part of the infrastructure New South Wales needs, and if you sell off a bit
more of the farm every time you need to invest more, you end up with no farm.
A country with rapid population growth needs to sustain a high level of infrastructure investment
to maintain its service levels. This cant be done while the states maintain a fetish for AAA credit
ratings, which are designed for countries with little population growth and hence little need to
borrow to build new infrastructure.
Baird has set himself a high standard to maintain in future. It wont be easy. On last nights
numbers, it looks like he and the Christian Democrats will end up with just enough seats to get
electricity privatisation through the Legislative Council. But the number of MPs on the other side
of the Assembly chamber will have almost doubled, and they will put him under more pressure on
a range of issues.
The NSW economy is clearly the strongest in Australia right now, but part of that strength comes
from a long-overdue rebound after years of underperformance; that wont last forever, and
economically, we are in very uncertain times.
It may be, as Labor leader Luke Foley slyly suggested in his otherwise gracious concession speech
on Saturday night, that Mike Baird is now enjoying the peak of his popularity which implies that
it will be downhill for him from here on. But if he can keep up the example he has set in this
remarkable debut year, he could become the rst Liberal premier since Hamer to last more than
two terms or he could be drafted into federal politics as leader to try to make the Liberal Party,
once again, the natural party of government.

TIM COLEBATCH
Tim Colebatch is a former economics editor of the Age, and
author of Dick Hamer: the liberal Liberal (Scribe).

http://insidestory.org.au/at-last-a-politician-we-can-trust

Page 4 of 4