Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Table of Contents
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 2
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3
Background of the country ........................................................................................................................... 3
Current Economic Conditions & Problems ................................................................................................... 3
Study on Macro-Economic key indicators ................................................................................................ 4
Analysis of Major Macroeconomics Theory.............................................................................................. 5
Economic growth ...................................................................................................................................... 5
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ................................................................................................................. 6
Inflation Rate............................................................................................................................................. 8
Taxation: ............................................................................................................................................. 11
Recommendation of Major Macroeconomics Theory ............................................................................ 11
Policy 1: ................................................................................................................................................... 11
Policy 2 .................................................................................................................................................... 12
Policy 3 ................................................................................................................................................ 12
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 13
References .................................................................................................................................................. 14
Appendix 1 .................................................................................................................................................. 15
Appendix 2 .................................................................................................................................................. 16
Appendix 3 .................................................................................................................................................. 17
Appendix 4 .................................................................................................................................................. 18
.................................................................................................................................................................... 19

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Executive Summary
The country I have chosen for the Macroeconomic study was Sultanate of Oman one of the oil
suppliers the Middle East. I just detailed the background of the country and current economic
conditions. The first part of the economic analysis focused on the macro key indicators and the
second part was focusing analysis of macroeconomic theory and policy recommendation.
In a nutshell, the Oman GDP 50% rely on the oil price. Decline in oil price directly affect the
country economy and growth, this is especially visible on the study below on the budget deficit
for coming years, expected approximately 7% of GDP in 2015 and 5% of GDP in 2016. This put
the country at risk; the inflation rate is negative for last few months. If this persist it will
generally create the fall in revenue, profits, shrinking employment, and increase defaults on
loans.
The government planning to diversify their expenditure to other areas such as infrastructure,
logistics, transportation, manufacturing, tourism, fishery industries to reduce the contribution
of oil and gas industry and bring it down from 50% to 9% of GDP in 2020.
As per the analysis, the three policy recommendations suggested are as below,
The introduction of Expansionary Fiscal Policy.
Developing new industries and self-employment opportunities.
Efficient handling of Omanization Policy.
Omans Vision 2020 long-term development plan will be aiming to ensure economic and
financial stability by boosting private sector participation, diversifying the economy and
investing in the Omani workforce. Incoming visitors are increasingly being considered a key
source of revenue for Oman with the tourism sectors contribution to GDP forecast to jump to
8.2% by 2024, from 6.4% in 2013. (Oxford business group 2015). The private sectors of various
industries should take the responsibility socially for the development of the employment
opportunities and the incentives to take up the job in the private sector. This will bring the
confidence of citizen and the appreciation for the private sector. This will encourage the Omani
youth to work in the private sector, will be positive work ethic and good productivity. Private
sector participation on this activities will grow the economic conditions significantly.
Oman economy will continue its positive upward trend in 2016, however if the GDP growth
maintained at 3.5%. To improve the real GDP at this crashed oil market, government need to
invest in new sectors such as port expansions, tourism, and manufacturing will increase the
revenue and GDP in spite of oil price decline.

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Introduction
The important reason for choosing Oman as the country to do my research on Macroeconomics
is because my first overseas job encounter was in the most bustling region in Oman, it is a one
of the hubs for Oil and Gas projects and constructions industry in Middle-East. I was working as
Project Engineer for a construction Group of companies in major projects. I had an interest in
reading about the economics of the country during that period, I admired about the growth and
it has happened only in the time of present Ruler Sultan Qaboos. And also, Oman is the place
where I acquired a higher level of work knowledge, leadership skills, decision-making and
problem-solving ability to tackle the most difficult problems faced in my career and current
industry. The interest grew over the years, and I want to use this opportunity to learn and
research Macroeconomics of the country, mainly to understand how the country is performing
with this recent slump in the oil price market.
Background of the country
Oman population is roughly around 4.2 million; total GDP is $80.8 Billion in 2015
(Data.worldbank.org, 2015). The country ruled by sultanate from 17th Century, current head of
the government is under His Majesty Sultan Qaboos Bin Said an economic reformer worked
through the transformation of the country in the last 45 years. He played a significant role on
developing health, education, welfare of the country and economy. The political issue is the
Sultan Qaboos does not have any heir and the succession price is opaque. Traditional income
of Oman was fishing and dates; fishing industry had specialized sailors, adventurers, and vast
coastal area, it was only industry they had their income and revenue to country till 1955. During
1969, there was just the only 8km the road with one school and one hospital. As Sultanate of
Qaboos took the powers in 1970, he opened up the oil markets, and miracles started
happening, there was significant economic growth took place in last 45 years. Oman remains as
the major contributor to the oil and gas industry stand 25th position in oil production (Oxford
business group 2015). The country development were only around oil and gas sector due to
the present situation of low oil prices, the economic conditions of the country are in serious
threat.
Current Economic Conditions & Problems
Omans economy is heavily dependent on the oil resources which generate 75% of government
revenue. National account data for the first quarter of the year reveal that the GDP at the
current prices declined 14.2 percent to an increase of 2.7 percent registered during the same
period in the same period in the previous year. (Cbo-oman.org, 2015)

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

The country has actively pursued a development plan diversification, industrialization and
privatization, the primary aim is to reduce the oil sector contributions to GDP from 46% to 9%
(Data.worldbank.org, 2015).
There should be a significant development needs to happen in downstream infrastructure, port
expansions, logistics, tourism, service sectors, manufacturing in all region of the country. The
Oman government expanded the efforts to support the development of small, medium
businesses and entrepreneurship. The governments is comfortable with the short-term budget
deficits and have sanctioned an expansionary 2015 budget. The government agencies were
encouraging the new initiatives; raise the new businesses and the entrepreneurs on providing
finances to start up. This will increase the service sector GDP alternative and will compensate
the decline in the oil sector contribution. Another key important thing identified Oman sits on
big global trade routes, and strategically it has a lot of potential improving the trade on existing
ports and developing new ports.
With an average of 3.93 million people in Oman, the unemployment rate is estimated at 15%.
The unemployment in Oman is mainly due to lack of skill workers and the method of education.
So the economic growth is affected by the labor market (The Road Ahead for Oman, 2008). The
Omanization program launched by Oman Government in the year of 1988, for replacing skilled
foreign labor with trained Omani personnel. The Oman government plan to increase the skilled
Omanis in the work sectors. And also the government issued special quota to limit the foreign
workers, which is another major problem, the unskilled Omanis productivity was affecting the
private sector growth and new businesses.
Study on Macro-Economic key indicators
Macroeconomic indicators are the statistical data that indicate the current status of an
economy of a state developing on a particular area of the economy (Markets.com, 2015). The
Major Macroeconomic indicators from 2012 to current are listed as below in table 1. The
below-listed indicators are rigorously followed by everyone in the financial market and it is also
needed to understand the importance of each indicator.
Table - 1
2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP growth (%)

5.8

4.7

2.9

3.2

Inflation (yearly average)

(%)

2.9

1.2

2.8

2.8

Budget balance (% GDP)

4.6

8.1

0.2

Current account balance

(% GDP)

13.3

12

9.9

5.6

Public debt (% GDP)

6.2

7.3

8.1

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Oman HDI Index

0.781 0.783

0.785

0.783

2012

2014

2015

2013

Source (Coface.com, 2015)

Analysis of Major Macroeconomics Theory

Economic Growth and Annual Growth Rate

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Consumer Price Index and Inflation Rate
Budget Deficit
Government Fiscal and Monitory policy

Economic growth
Omans economic growth strongly depends on the oil and gas sector for the past years. The
country focused on spending in infrastructure projects to improve Omans status as a logistics
center. The expansion and development projects related to building ports, airport and national
railway and highway that attract foreign investors. The government also focuses on tourism,
industrial manufacturing and privatization that drive to the new economic growth in the
upcoming years (Oxford business group 2015).
GDP Annual Growth Rate:
The annual growth rate was consistently increasing for past ten years; and also projected to
increase in upcoming years, please refer to Appendix 4. The current year the lowest growth rate
was 2% of GDP recorded, and the highest was 13.1.
OMAN GDP ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
13.1

14

11.5
12
10
8
6
6

6.7
5.6

5.5

4.5
3.3

4.6
2.8

2
2005

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2008

2011

2014

Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Figure 6 Oman GDP Annual Growth Rate (Author 2015)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

As per the national accounts data, the Oman GDP has declined 14.2 % for the first quarter of
the year 2015, in contrast was an increase of 2.7 percent registered same period of last year
review. (Data.worldbank.org, 2015) Omans economy continues to vary on the oil sector,
therefore relating the GDP development to dominant drifts in the world oil market. The
revenues pushing to negative, started this year budget of 0.5 billion USD surplus and now it has
gone to a budget deficit of $6.97 billion in first eight months (Arabian Business, 2015). The
Growth will continue to decelerate in 2015; currently country is focusing on the nonhydrocarbon sectors to be the key driver for the economic development. The next five-year
plan of diversification of the economy was a solution, which the country is currently in progress
development of new industries, manufacturing sectors, infrastructure projects (ports, rails, and
airports) and tourism was promising steps to improve the GDP for upcoming years.
OMAN GDP
100
78.18

USD BILLION

80

81.79

76.34
67.93
60.9

58.64

60
48.38

42.08

40

37.21
31.08

20
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Figure 1 - GDP stats for the past ten years, source Tradingeconomics.com
Figure (1), shows the Oman GDP in US Billion dollars for past ten years. The GDP (Gross
Domestic Product) was worth around 81.9 billion US dollars in 2014. The averaged GDP
calculated from 1960 to 2014 is around 16.76 USD billion (Tradingeconomics.com, 2015). The
country GDP is nearly doubled in last ten years.
It is clearly identified the country follows the growth theory model, which holds the growth in
GDP. Concerning Annexure A, it is clearly explained that the country has the significant saving
finances investment, also encourage foreign direct investment and international trade,
initiating research and development, improve the quality of education among Omanian people
and also provide international aid to developing countries.

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Oman GDP consumption by end of use, the oil and gas hold 51% of the GDP,
Which needs to be shifted to manufacturing and mining. Oman needs to invest and continue
diversifies the economy, strengthen the growth process, continuous efforts to expand the
industrial base and create jobs. Industrial and infrastructure projects will develop and
compensate the economy while this oil prices is low and the GDP revenue decreases.

Oman GDP Composition

Oil and Natural Gas

5%
6%

1%

Service Sector
Manufacturing and Mining

51%
37%

Construction, electricity and

Water Distribution
Agriculture

Figure 2 Oman GDP Consumption

Figure 3 clearly represents the GDP consumption of the country; the import value is on a higher
percentage, the country need to support the local makes and products. Government expenses

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

need to be reduced.
GDP CONSUMPTION BY END USE
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
-20.00%
-40.00%
-60.00%

100.00%
62.10%
33.10%

21.30%

26.10%
5.90%

-48.50%

Figure 3 GDP Consumption by end use

Inflation Rate

OMAN INFLATION RATE

1.2

1.02

0.95
0.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.7
0.5

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.2
0
-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6
Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Figure 4 - Inflation Rate stats for the past one year (Author, 2015)

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Oman, consumer price index, fell 102 points in July and August 2015 the average inflation rate
from Jan 2015 to Aug 2015 was 0.2 (Heritage.org, 2015), which is significantly low compared to
last year. The steady decrease in the oil price goods and services cause the CPI decline.
Significantly reduced this year and reached the negative some months this year, which is a
serious condition of Cost-Push inflation. If the inflation will not improve next few months, if this
CPI index constantly declining if it drags to negative. In next few months it will reach to the
serious deflation. The below graph clearly explains if the supply decreases will increase the
price in the local market when the demand is constant.

Figure 5 Cost Push Inflation curve

The current inflation rate can lead to the economic depressions. To stop the deflation
government is committed to pushing ahead on the spending the money on infrastructure
projects and also the government is relying in the part on issuance of the new bond worth of
$650 million to compensate the fiscal deficit almost going to be close to 10 billion USD this year
(Cbo-oman.org, 2015).
Budget Deficit
Oman runs a major budget deficit this year as per the data below; it was almost equivalent to
6.5 Percent of its GDP. The decline in global energy price hit the country budget significantly.
The country planned the budget expecting the oil price $75 per barrel, but the price reduced to
almost $46 per barrel. And also the government expenditure are increasing, which is good thing

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

increase infrastructure, increase revenue, this will create job and economy.
OMAN GOVERNMENT BUDGET

4
2.6

Percent of GDP

2
0.3

0.2

0.3

0
-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-2

-3.4

-3.7

-4
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Figure 7 - Oman Government Budget for the past ten years (Author 2015)
Annual government budgets regarding GDP for past ten years. Oman yearly administration
spending plans are met through public expenditure, which regularly drives general economic
development and business prospects. Given that the sultanates economy is still governmentdriven for the most part, yearly state spending plans draw in both private and wild speculation
as they create total requests. One of the distinct elements of the annual spending plan
improvement in the sultanate is that the administration regularly employments moderate oil
costs projection. Government financial plan assets are generally determined shape continues of
oil exports after some time other sources of incomes have been made (The Road Ahead for
Oman, 2008).
Current Fiscal Expenditure
Oman Fiscal expenditure is more than $900 million for the past 6 months. Estimated GDP would
be close to $91 Billion USD. According to Keynesian Aggregate expenditure Model increase in
government expenditure, will increase the GDP.

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

OMAN FISCAL EXPENDITURE

4500
4036.5

4000

OMR MILLION

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500

1410.1

1237.6
885

1000

1092.7

922.9

787

989

957

1091.7

944.7

562.2

500
Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Figure 8 - Oman Fiscal Expenditure for the past 1 year (Author, 2015)
Taxation:
Oman has no individual income tax. The corporate tax is constant 12 percent, but the income
from the oil and gas sales is subject to 55 percent rate. Tax revenue equals 2.5 percent of the
domestic income. Public spending is equal to 43.1 % of the percent of GDP domestic
production; government debt equals 7% of GDP (Tradingeconomics.com, 2015)

Recommendation of Major Macroeconomics Theory

The macroeconomic policy aims to provide a stable economic growth, the key elements on
macroeconomic policy. The goal of below policy is to provide a stable economic growth, the
creation of new jobs, increase in GDP, improved wealth and sustainable growth environment.
Policy 1:
Fiscal policy is a type of economic intervention where the government can inject its policies into
the economy to increase the economic growth. By changing the level of spending and taxation,
the government can control the total amount of goods and services in an economy.
When the economy is suffering in the recession, expansionary fiscal policy is in order. The
government needs to increase their spending or tax cut, this will help to fill the recessionary
gap in GDP. Tax cut option is not applicable in this country. Increase spending can occur, which
will create new job opportunity, will increase the GDP. This average increase in spending will
increase the aggregate demand curve. The demand curve will shift to the right AD + E, which
will increase the potential GDP. And the multiplier effect will also increase the GDP

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Figure 9 - (source from textbook)

Policy 2
Oman is facing the Dutch disease, the term derives from the decline of Netherlands
manufacturing sector in 1960 after the discovery of major oil and gas field. Oman economy was
boosted for last 45 years through the oil and gas industry when there is a decline in oil price the
Oman economy is highly reliable on this pricing. The other manufacturing sectors, traditional
fisheries, and agricultural industries has not been developed significantly compared to oil and
gas. The government needs to focus on the development of these service sectors such as
infrastructure development, tourism industry, traditional fishery industry, port expansions and
agriculture. The government can encourage local citizens by giving a stimulus package or bank
loans to start up own businesses on very small scale, mainly to improve the self-employment.
Improving the self-employment within locals will reduce the unemployment rate and will
increase the GDP and the country economy.
Policy 3
Efficient handling Omanization policy, there is an issue on skill set. The government is keep
increasing the workforce, but there comes a question of how skillful the Omanis compared to
foreign workers. Even with increased population and development work rates and to balance
the high youth unemployment rates that hold on notwithstanding as of late supported
monetary development rates. Oman needs to evaluate three sorts of change that will increase
the growth of skilled labor market and countrys economy. The principal is transforming the
education framework in a way that accentuates quality instead of quantity.

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Secondly, Omanis would be all encouraged to change its work market arrangements, including
its framework of rewards and incentives to skilled labor and local Omanis. By then the young
Omanis would encourage to step forward for any work in the country.
Third, to partner with education and work business sector changes, the government must
change its migration arrangement in a way that screens off the low-talented and uneducated
and draws in the best foreign specialists.
Conclusion
The Oman economy is expected to continue its growth, if the government plan is expenditure
and investment on the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors apart from the Oil and Gas.
Oman economy will be dependent on the petroleum industry until 2020; the continuous
decline of oil industries is an issue. As per the policy recommendation 1, 2 the government
needs to start increase his spending on new infrastructure and manufacturing industries.
Developing the service sectors and self-employment opportunities for local nationals will help
in long run. The banks should support the small businesses, and provide the loans for the start
up. This will give local Omanis some responsibility for their own business and will improve the
economy in long term like Singapore.
.

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

References
Tradingeconomics.com, (2015). Oman GDP | 1960-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast |
News. [online] Available at: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/oman/gdp [Accessed 7 Nov.
2015].
The Road Ahead for Oman. (2008). 1st ed. [ebook] Egypt: The Economic Research Forum.
Available at: http://www.erf.org.eg/CMS/uploads/pdf/Oman_CP.pdf [Accessed 8 Nov. 2015].
Heritage.org, (2015). Oman Economy: Population, GDP, Inflation, Business, Trade, FDI,
Corruption. [online] Available at: http://www.heritage.org/index/country/oman [Accessed 3
Nov. 2015].
Cia.gov, (2015). The World Factbook. [online] Available at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mu.html [Accessed 3 Nov.
2015].
Worldbank.org, (2015). Omans Fishery Management Dives into 21st-Century Waters. [online]
Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/08/13/omans-fisherymanagement-dives-into-21th-century-waters [Accessed 3 Nov. 2015].
Bouyamourn, A. (2015). Oman faces larger than expected budget deficit this year amid ongoing
oil slump | The National. [online] Thenational.ae. Available at:
http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/oman-faces-larger-than-expected-budgetdeficit-this-year-amid-ongoing-oil-slump [Accessed 3 Nov. 2015].
Data.worldbank.org, (2015). GINI index (World Bank estimate) | Data | Table. [online] Available
at: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI [Accessed 6 Nov. 2015].
Arabian Business, (2015). Oman says going for growth as cheap oil hits budget. [online]
Available at: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/oman-says-going-for-growth-as-cheap-oil-hitsbudget--610310.html [Accessed 9 Nov. 2015].
Indexmundi.com, (2015). Oman GDP (official exchange rate) - Economy. [online] Available at:
http://www.indexmundi.com/oman/gdp_(official_exchange_rate).html [Accessed 9 Nov. 2015].
Cbo-oman.org, (2015). Central Bank of Oman. [online] Available at: http://www.cbo-oman.org/
[Accessed 10 Nov. 2015].
Coface.com, (2015). Oman / Economic Studies - Coface. [online] Available at:
http://www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks/Oman [Accessed 10 Nov. 2015].

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Appendix 1
Appendix Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Current Market
Jan - Sep
Activities

2011

2012

2013*

% change (2014/13)
2013*

1. Industry (1.1 + 1.2)

1.1 Petroleum Activities
- Crude Petroleum
- Natural Gas
1.2 Non-Petroleum Industrial
Activities
- Mining and Quarrying
- Manufacturing
- Electricity & Water Supply
- Construction
2. Agriculture & Fishing
3. Services
- Wholesale & Retail Trade
- Hotels & Restaurants
- Transport, Storage &
Communication
- Financial Intermediation
- Real Estate & Business
Activities
- Public Administration &
Defence
- Other Services (Education,
Health, Community/Personal
Services, and Private Household)
4. Total Non-Petroleum
Activities (1.2 + 2 +3)
5. Less Financial Intermediation
Services Indirectly Measured
6. Gross Domestic Product at
Producers Prices (1.1+4-5)
7. Plus :Taxes Less Subsidies on
Products
8. Gross Domestic Product at
Market Prices (6+7)

$ 48,662.12
$ 36,110.88
$ 33,475.52
$ 2,635.36

$
$
$
$

53,717.30
39,910.52
37,021.66
2,888.86

$
$
$
$

53,826.50
39,535.08
36,522.20
3,012.88

$
$
$
$

$ 12,551.24 $

13,806.78

14,291.42

$ 256.88
$ 7,747.74
$ 784.94
$ 3,761.42
$ 852.54
$ 23,285.60
$ 4,619.16
$ 442.78

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

262.34
8,173.10
829.14
4,542.20
887.38
26,982.80
5,103.80
568.88

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

298.22
8,160.88
900.12
5,166.20
965.12
29,459.04
5,309.98
619.32

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

$ 3,188.12

3,585.14

3,819.92

4,057.30 $

4,343.30

$ 2,837.90

3,311.10

3,596.84

2,455.96 $

2,723.76

10.9

$ 2,679.30

2,836.08

3,003.26

2,490.02 $

2,647.58

6.3

$ 5,027.62

6,427.72

7,187.96

4,740.06 $

5,415.54

14.2

$ 4,490.46

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5,150.08

5,921.76

$ 36,689.38 $

41,676.96

44,715.58

1,531.40

1,592.76

$ 71,412.64 $

80,055.82

82,657.90

$ 1,387.36

-$ 3,495.44 -$
$ 67,917.20 $

Data Source - (Cbo-oman.org, 2015)

2014**

3,737.50 -$
76,318.58

4,498.52 -$
78,159.38

37,924.90
29,272.62
27,190.80
2,081.82

$ 38,023.44
$ 29,677.70
$ 27,738.10
$ 1,939.60

8,652.28 $
181.22
5,149.82
641.94
2,679.56
742.30
23,159.50
4,854.46
428.22

0.3
104
2
-6.8

8,345.74

-3.5

$
196.56
$ 4,707.56
$
696.02
$ 2,745.60
$
810.16
$ 26,083.72
$ 4,959.24
$
464.88

8.4
-8.6
8.4
2.5
9.2
12.6
2.2
8.5

4,133.74 $

5,529.68

33.8

32,554.08 $ 35,239.62

8.2

1,160.12 $

1,230.06

60,666.58 $ 63,687.26

2,293.72 -$

2,276.82

-0.7

58,372.86 $ 61,410.44

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Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Appendix 2
Appendix Table 2
Sultanate Consumer Price Index (2012 = 100)
Jan - Sep
Items of Consumption

Weights

2012

2013

23.903

100

102.8

102.3

104.4

Bread & Cereals Meat

Fish & Seafood
Milk , Cheese & Eggs Oil & Fats
Fruits Vegetables

3.02
6.103
2.208
2.865

100
100
100
100

100.9
101.2
107.3
100.9

100.2
101.1
107.8
100.8

102.4
103
117.1
101.6

2.1
1.9
8.7
0.8

Sugar,Jam,Honey & Confectionary

Food Products n.e.c.

0.715

100

100

100

100.1

0.1

2.815
2.493
1.135

100
100
100

104.4
108.4
99.8

103.9
104.9
99.8

106.7
104.5
99.6

2.7
-0.4
-0.2

0.521

100

100.3

100.2

100.7

0.5

2.028

100

102.1

102

103.3

1.2

0.125
5.961
26.477

100
100
100

101.5
101.8
100.5

101.5
101.8
100.2

101.9
101.8
101.5

0.5
0
1.2

3.787

100

102.2

101.8

107.3

5.4

1.161

100

101.5

101.1

106.3

5.1

19.167

100

100.4

100.5

99.8

-0.7

5.633
1.135
1.368
6.098
5.185
100

100
100
100
100
100
100

97.7
98.9
104.2
101.1
100.3
101.1

98.8
99
102.6
100.9
100.3
100.9

97.4
98.8
109.1
102.1
100.4
102

-1.4
-0.1
6.3
1.2
0.1
1

1 Food & non-alcoholic Beverages

Non Alchoholic Beverages

2 Tobacco
3 Clothing & Footwear
4 Housing , Water, electricity, gas
and other fuels
5 Furnishings, household
equipment & routing household
maintenance
6 Health
7 Transport
8 Communication
9 Recreation & Entertainment 10
Education
11 Restaurant and Hotels
12 Miscellaneous goods and
Services
General Price Index

Data Source - (Cbo-oman.org, 2015)

16 | P a g e

2013

2014

% change (2014/13)

Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Appendix 3

APPENDIX 3 - SUMMARY OF CURRENT BUDGET

2014
2015
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
REVENUES
3041.48 2906.8 2700.1 2513.68 4260.88 1985.1 2175.42 2202.46 1552.2 2115.62 1876.16 1739.4
EXPENDITURE
3252.08 3737.76
2561 2415.4 10494.9 2761.72 2176.2 2841.02 2488.2 3926.26 2701.4 2968.42
FISCAL SURPLUS (+)/ DEFICIT (-) -210.6 -830.96
139.1 114.14
-6234 -776.62 -0.078 -638.56
-936 -1810.6 -825.24
-1229
USD MILLION (USD)

BELOW TABLE SOURCE (Cbo-oman.org, 2015)

Below currency - Omani Riyal (OMR)

Note : All currency are in Oman Riyals

17 | P a g e

1830.92
2586.22
-755.3

Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Appendix 4

18 | P a g e

Assessment 3 Individual macroeconomic country case study

Appendix 4 - Oman Economic Forecasts 2015-2020 Outlook: Source - (Tradingeconomics.com, 2015)

Markets
Currency
Stock Market

Actual

GDP
GDP
GDP Annual Growth Rate
GDP Constant Prices
GDP per capita
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
GDP per capita PPP
GDP From Agriculture
GDP From Construction
GDP From Manufacturing
GDP From Mining
GDP From Public Administration
GDP From Services
GDP From Transport
GDP From Utilities
Gross National Product
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Population
Prices
Inflation Rate
Consumer Price Index CPI
Food Inflation
Inflation Rate Mom
Producer Prices
Producer Prices Change
Money
Interest Rate
Money Supply M1
Money Supply M2
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Loan Growth
Money Supply M0
Trade
Balance of Trade
Exports
Imports
Current Account
Current Account to GDP
Gold Reserves
Crude Oil Production
Capital Flows
Foreign Direct Investment
Government
Government Budget
Government Debt to GDP
Government Budget Value
Government Spending
Credit Rating
Fiscal Expenditure
Government Debt
Government Revenues
Business
Changes in Inventories
Competitiveness Index
Competitiveness Rank
Corruption Index
Corruption
19
| P aRank
ge
Ease of Doing Business
Consumer
Consumer Confidence
Private Sector Credit
Taxes

Actual

Q4/15

0.39
5900.32

81.79
4.6
25533.3
12471.98
8517.3
41769.84
406.1
2054.3
3151.9
124.5
3163.9
12814.5
1574.7
376.2
29984.8
Actual
15
3.93
Actual
-0.1
102.3
-1.15
-0.29
110.9
-13.9
Actual
1
5256.8
14618.3
6625.6
10.6
1665
Actual
198.7
1193.4
994.7
1559
5
0.03
960
-789
284
Actual
-3.4
4.8
-290.5
5723.4
75
944.7
1526.3
704.2
Actual
-1886.2
4.25
62
45
64
70
Actual
97.1
15774.3
Actual

Q1/16
0.4
5710

Q4/15

Q1/16
90.08
3
26296
12068
8685
40511
479
2498
3077
130
3524
13682
1614
440
32450

Q4/15

Q2/16

Q1/16

Q4/15

Q4/15

Q1/16

Q4/15

Q1/16

Q4/15

Q3/16

Q2/16

Q1/16

Q3/16

Q2/16

percent
Million

2.7
102
-0.85
0.08
74.88
-9.12

percent
Index Points
percent
percent
Index Points
percent

2.5
5235
14708
6521
13.79
2475

percent
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
Percent
OMR Million

272
1349
996
2107
7.43
0.03
963
-797
383

OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
percent
Tonnes
BBL/D/1K
OMR Million
OMR Million

2020
1
5237
14706
6355
13.25
1879

446
1188
926
1780
6.7
0.03
963
-454
279

USD Billion
percent
OMR Million
USD
OMR Million
USD
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million

2020

Q3/16

Q2/16
405
1198
934
1594
6.53
0.03
963
-615
270

119
2.88
29415
13018
10627
39537
705
4089
2320
153
5085
15340
1547
613
41105
15
4.4

2.44
102
-0.85
0.08
85.9
-6.92

1
5235
14704
6387
12.96
1842

Index Points

2020
15
4.28

1.71
102
-0.85
0.09
87.42
-6.46

1
5246
14705
6416
12.52
1804

356
1218
942
1408
6.35
0.03
963
-777
260

Q3/16

Q2/16

Units
0.35
6410

2020
95.14
3.19
26838
11862
8632
40098
524
2869
2989
134
3781
14296
1639
470
33877

15
4.24

1.19
102
-0.85
0.07
93.71
-6.22

1
5265
14704
6337
11.93
1767

Q3/16

Q2/16

Q1/16

2020
0.41
5250

93.45
3.3
26657
11931
8650
40235
509
2745
3018
133
3696
14091
1631
460
33401

15
4.2

0.5
102
-0.85
0.14
95.97
-8.8

Q3/16
0.41
5370

91.77
3.2
26477
12000
8668
40373
494
2622
3048
132
3610
13887
1622
450
32926

15
4.16

2020
480
1178
918
1966
6.87
0.03
963
-292
288

Q3/16

2020

-0.76
6.12
-41.69
5916

-0.69
6.53
149
5956

-0.63
6.94
336
5997

-0.56
7.36
517
6038

-1.94 percent of GDP

4.68
percent
-183 OMR Million
6519 OMR Million

1182
1546
819

1187
1549
821

1182
1552
821

1183
1555
821

1183
1579
821

OMR Million
OMR Million
OMR Million

-374
4.43
48.62
45.54
48
59

OMR Million
Points

Q4/15

Q1/16
-193
4.46
45.46
45.32
62
65

Q4/15

Q2/16
-200
4.46
45.46
45.35
61
64

Q1/16
106
16217

Q4/15

Q2/16
0.4
5540

Q2/16
112
16418

Q1/16

Q3/16
-208
4.46
45.46
45.38
60
63
Q3/16
116
16553

Q2/16

2020
-215
4.46
45.46
45.42
59
63
2020
119
16635

Q3/16

Points

126
15591
2020

OMR Million