THE NATION ’S NEWSPAPER

Collegiate
Case
Study www.usatodaycollege.com

Candidates’ age factors little in Election 2008: Presidential Primaries

poll Personality, leadership qualities, charisma, electability, even likeability - these,
By Susan Page along with other more objective assessments, such as age or experience, are
.....................................................................................5 often the qualities that sway us in the voting booth. Yet, as Thomas Jefferson
famously said, “The best defense of democracy is an informed electorate.” What
Obama now seen as most information do we use to form our opinions - the very opinions that often divide
electable us as a country? Ultimately, what information do we use to support a president?
By Susan Page Even when we are truly informed, is a candidate’s position on any issue more
important than the immeasurable qualties of leadership and vision?
.....................................................................................6
As the primary season draws to a close, these issues will play a vital role in the
Nader’s candidacy rankles candidate’s race to receive their party’s nomination. Candidates may not have
enough electoral votes to clinch the nomination prior to the convention. States
Democrats that have been relegated to the “backburner” may now play a vital role in decid-
By David Jackson ing nominees. This case study will help students have a better understanding of
.....................................................................................7 how people choose whom to vote for and explore the issues candidates seek as
the seek nomination.

Ready on Day One?

By David Jackson
...............................................................................8-11 Americans revved up
Critical inquiry
Discussion and future implications
— and ready to vote
............................................................................12-13
Iraq, economy, ‘fresh faces’ boost interest
By Susan Page and William Risser
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — American voters, to
borrow a candidate's phrase, are fired
up and ready to go.
Turnout in the opening Iowa caucuses
and New Hampshire primary this
month smashed records. By 2-1, those
surveyed in a new USA TODAY/Gallup
Poll say they're more enthusiastic than
usual about voting this year. Nine in 10
say it makes a difference to them who
is elected president.
With the stakes high and the country's
direction up for grabs, voters are
poised to continue a rebound in
Election Day turnout that began after
dipping to a historic low in 1996, when
barely over half of those eligible to vote
bothered to go to the polls. High levels
of interest are reshaping the races in
both parties, boosting candidates who
have reached out to new voters at the
expense of those who targeted the
ranks of the tried-and-true.
"I hate to say it, but (in past elections)
I'd vote if I was available or my sched-
ule allowed it or I remembered," says
Sara Koscura, 28, a Republican and
attorney in upstate Watertown, N.Y.,
who was among those surveyed.
"Voting wasn't a high priority, but this
year it is."

© Copyright 2008 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION JANUARY 17, 2008, 1A
She supports Arizona Sen. John McCain, who won easily in
New Hampshire over the better-funded Mitt Romney after
pulling independent voters to the Republican primary. In
Iowa, Romney's superior organization lost to Mike
Huckabee, who drew a flood of conservative Christians to
the caucuses.
The broadest outreach to young and independent voters
has been by Democrat Barack Obama — who described vot-
ers as being "fired up."
Young and independent voters swamp Obama's rallies,
delivered a sweeping victory for him in Iowa and contribute
to his strength heading into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when
22 states will hold contests.
Opposition to the Iraq war, anxiety about a possible reces-
sion, dissatisfaction with President Bush and dismay over
gridlock in Washington are fueling Americans' engagement
in the 2008 election.
By 62%-28%, voters say they're more enthusiastic about vot-
ing than usual. That's 17 percentage points higher than at
this point in 2000 and 6 points higher than in 2004 — a year
in which November turnout was the highest in a genera-
tion.
Democrats are significantly more keyed up about the elec-
tion than Republicans, a major advantage if the feeling con-
tinues to November.
Republicans and independents who "lean" to the GOP say
by 49%-37% that they're more excited than usual. For
Democrats, it's 74%-19%.
"If things are going fine, people would relax and get back to
their lives and go to the movies. But when the country's in
trouble, then obviously you turn your attention to solving
the problems in front of you," says Jon Krosnick, a Stanford
professor who studies political psychology.
"Lots of people in the country, more so than in a really long
time, are unhappy with the direction the leadership has
been taking," he says.
That unhappiness is deep-seated. In the USA TODAY poll
taken Thursday through Sunday, more than half of those
surveyed say they are pessimistic or uncertain about how
well the U.S. government will work in the long run. Nearly
two-thirds are pessimistic or uncertain about the long-term
soundness of the economy.
Nicole Collier, 25, a Democrat who works for the Texas
Department of Transportation in Austin, frets about the
future.
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
"There is so much uncertainty in what direction someone
can go in once Bush is gone," Collier says. "There's a whole
lot of work to do: where we are in Iraq, where we are with
medical care. ... There's a lot riding on it," she says of the
2008 election.
Collier, who's supporting New York Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton, says that going to the polls this year "is critical.
"Once someone is elected, I don't want to look back and
say, 'I should have voted.'"
The under-30 crowd
The greatest surge in political participation this year has
been among the least reliable of voters: those under 30.
Even as turnout in the New Hampshire primary rose among
all age groups, those 18 to 29 increased their share of the
electorate. They made up 18% of Democratic voters, com-
pared with 14% in 2004. In a survey of voters at the polls,
young people were 14% of GOP voters, up from 11% in 2000.
In Iowa, the number of those 17 to 29 attending caucuses
tripled from 2004. They made up 22% of Democratic cau-
cusgoers — up 5 points from 2004 — and 11% of Republican
caucusgoers.
Among Republicans, former Arkansas governor Huckabee
did best among young voters, many of them evangelical
Christians and home-schooling parents.
Among Democrats, Obama carried voters under 30 by 5-1, a
major factor in the size of his victory there. He had courted
support on college campuses and high schools, where those
who would be 18 by Election Day were eligible to partici-
pate.
Obama's strategists, getting reports that night at the cam-
paign's Des Moines headquarters, were amazed by the
turnout among young people in particular and Iowans in
general, says Steve Hildebrand, a veteran Democratic organ-
izer and Obama adviser.
The campaign had projected a total of 150,000 to 160,000
participants in the Democratic caucuses. Nearly 240,000
showed up, almost double the record.
In one example of the challenges that can mean to cam-
paigns, Clinton aides say they met their targets in delivering
supporters to the caucuses only to have those numbers
swamped by higher-than-expected turnout. She finished
third.
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"Voters under 30 have been one of the worst-performing
categories of voters for decades," Hildebrand says. "And the
question is going to be whether this is a one-year, one-time
deal or if it's going to be a new part of the electorate."
In the past, the political engagement of young people has
spiked only to wane.
"Remember, this occurred for Howard Dean" in 2004, says
Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the
American Electorate.
"It occurred for John McCain in 2000. It occurred a little bit
for Ronald Reagan in 1984, for Clinton-Gore in 1992, for
Gene McCarthy and George McGovern" in 1968 and 1972.
Some young voters — and some older ones — remain unen-
gaged. (Turnout wasn't particularly heavy in Tuesday's
Michigan primary, which was ignored by the Democratic
candidates because it wasn't sanctioned by the national
party.)
"To me, even though you say that your one vote counts, I'm
thinking it really doesn't," says Derek Foster, 20, a driver for
Frito-Lay who lives in Manteca, Calif.
This is the first election in which Foster has been old
enough to vote, but he isn't registered and doesn't plan to
bother.
That attitude was more common among young people
before the 9/11 attacks, says John Della Volpe, a political
scientist at Harvard who has been studying youth voting
since 2000.
"Then, they said, 'It doesn't matter,' 'politicians are all the
same,' 'my vote's irrelevant,'" he says.
But 9/11 inspired many young people to pay more attention
to politics, he says. Some current issues — the war, global
warming, ethnic killings in Darfur — have particularly cap-
tured the interest of young people.
Campaigns in both parties are targeting young people,
especially through online social networks that have made
the task easier.
Get-out-the-vote efforts targeting supporters of all ages
have become more intensive. Academic studies, some pub-
lished since the 2004 election, have shown that supporters
who troop from door-to-door have a much more significant
impact than "robo-calls" from celebrities, for instance.
Ken Mehlman, campaign manager for Bush's re-election,
credits sophisticated use of shoe leather as an asset that
drove up Republican turnout in such critical states as Ohio
in 2004.
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
Hope ... and fear
One key motivation for voters: hope.
By 84%-11%, Americans say there's a candidate running who
would make a good president. The view is bipartisan, held
by 85% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats.
That's a rosier assessment than during previous campaigns.
At this point in 1992, when the elder President Bush was
running for re-election against a wide Democratic field, just
40% felt that way.
In 1996, when President Clinton was running for re-elec-
tion, 57% did. In 2000, as his tenure was ending, 75% saw a
good prospect in the field of those hoping to succeed him.
What's more, seven in 10 now say the candidates are talk-
ing about the issues they really care about.
A majority believe some of the candidates are coming up
with good ideas to solve the country's problems. Two-thirds
say the election process is working as it should.
"This is not a re-run election," says Steven Rosenstone, a
political scientist at the University of Minnesota and author
of Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America.
"This isn't another pass at Bush. It's not another pass at
(Bill) Clinton. These are relatively fresh faces for most of the
nation and candidates with some positives. That's going to
turn people on."
The breakthrough character of some of the campaigns —
the most serious presidential campaigns ever waged by an
African-American (Obama), a woman (Hillary Rodham
Clinton), a Mormon (Romney) — has energized some voters.
"The last couple elections I just voted Democratic; I don't
even remember who I voted for," says Jacob Holmes, 28,
who works in a pizza parlor in St. Louis and was called in
the poll.
This year, he's paying closer attention and pulling for
Clinton.
"I'd like to see a woman in office, that's my thing." he says.
Bess Lovejoy, 28, a reference-book writer from Manhattan,
says she's been "obsessed" with the campaign and inspired
by Obama's candidacy since she attended a New York rally.
"He just seemed to broadly touch on a lot of things that
mattered to me and understood the issues in a way that I
was really sympathetic to," Lovejoy says.
There's another powerful motivation this year, too.
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AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION JANUARY 17, 2008, 1A
"We've found what drives turnout is whether they dislike a
candidate," Krosnick says. Those who are uncomfortable
with or opposed to having a woman or an African-
American or a Mormon as president will be more likely to
vote to try to keep them from winning.
That's one reason political polarization has spurred voter
participation.
In the 2004 election, marked by a bitter partisan split after
the disputed outcome in 2000, 60.7% of those eligible to
vote did so -- the highest turnout since 1968.
Strong interest in the election early in the year usually cor-
relates to high turnout in November. Some analysts say
turnout this year might top 2004's record.
For one thing, the sharp divide between the two major
political parties hasn't eased.
The candidates, viewed so positively in their own party,
spark equally strong negative reactions from those on the
other side.
In a Gallup Poll last month, respondents were asked
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
whether they would be "excited," "pleased," "disappointed"
or "afraid" depending on which candidate was elected pres-
ident in 2008.
Among Democrats, 25% chose the most extreme reaction --
"afraid" -- if Republican Romney were elected; 29% felt that
way about a Rudy Giuliani presidency. Among Republicans,
three in 10 said they would be afraid if Democrats Obama
or John Edwards won.
And Clinton?
Sixty-two percent of Republicans said they would be afraid
if she won.
"Might be looking at Canada if she's elected," jokes Ken
Bridge, 43, an auto-parts salesman from Powell Butte, Ore.
A Republican, he likes former Tennessee senator Fred
Thompson but doubts he'll win the GOP nomination.
"I'm following it pretty close," Bridge says of the election.
"I'll definitely be there this year."
Page 4
AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION FEBRUARY 27, 2008, 5A
Candidates' age factors little in poll
But respondents guess wrong about how old they are
By Susan Page
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The good news for Arizona Sen. John
McCain, the likely Republican presidential nominee, is
that most Americans don't think he's too old to be presi-
dent.
The bad news is that most Americans don't realize how
old he is.
In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Thursday through
Sunday, nearly six in 10 underestimated his age, which is
71. More than a third lopped off six years or more when
asked to name their "best guess."
And Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama?
By an even bigger margin, Americans said he's not too
young to be president. Still, about four in 10 overesti-
mated his age, which is 46, while half underestimated it.
For New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, two-thirds of
Americans pegged her as younger than her age of 60.
If McCain and Obama are the nominees, the generational
divide between them — McCain was 24 years old and a
Navy aviator when Obama was born — will be unmistak-
able. Obama has mentioned McCain's long service to the
nation in a way that the Republican's strategists see as
deliberately valedictory.
"It's nice that he thinks so much of John McCain and 'his
half-century of service,'" Rick Davis, McCain's campaign
manager, says. "I don't mind engaging on what that half-
century of service has been."
McCain's experience is a significant advantage for him, at
least at the moment: 70% of those surveyed say he has
the experience necessary to be a good president; 46%
say that of Obama.
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
Obama has an edge among those seeking a new direc-
tion for the country. Of those surveyed, 42% called "lead-
ership skills and vision" as most important in determin-
ing their vote; 22% cited experience.
In the abstract, Americans have reservations about
electing a president in his 70s.
Last March, a USA TODAY survey found that four in 10
Americans said they wouldn't vote for a 72-year-old who
was nominated by their party and otherwise qualified
for the presidency.
In the new survey, older Americans — those 55 and older
— were most likely to express concerns that McCain was
too old and Obama too young.
If elected, McCain would be the oldest person to assume
the presidency. (Ronald Reagan was 70 when he took
office in 1981.) Obama would be the fifth-youngest pres-
ident — after Theodore Roosevelt, John Kennedy, Bill
Clinton and Ulysses Grant.
Obama could ease concerns about his age by displaying
knowledge and wisdom in campaign debates. McCain
could help put to rest concerns about his age by showing
vigor on the campaign trail.
Democrats shouldn't count on tapping unease about
McCain's age, cautions William Galston of the Brookings
Institution.
He was an aide to Walter Mondale in 1984, when
Reagan's riposte in the second campaign debate — "I am
not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's
youth and inexperience" — turned the issue to his
advantage.
"I've seen this movie before, and it didn't come out right
the first time," Galston says. "Voters are going to have to
judge for themselves whether someone is either too old
or too young to be president."
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AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION FEBRUARY 26, 2008, 1A
Obama now seen as most electable
Only 46% say he has needed experience
By Susan Page
USA TODAY
The sense that Democratic presidential candidate Barack
Obama is more electable than Hillary Rodham Clinton
has trumped concerns about whether he has the experi-
ence necessary to be a good president, a new USA
TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.
The air of inevitability that once surrounded Clinton has
shifted to the Illinois senator, now seen by seven in 10
Americans as the likely Democratic nominee.
In a poll taken Thursday through Sunday, Democrats and
Democratic-leaning independents say by 2-1 that Obama
has the better chance of beating the Republican in
November. That's up from January when only a plurality
thought so. Republicans agree: By more than 3-1, they
say likely GOP nominee John McCain has a better chance
of beating Clinton than Obama.
Those findings hold even though Americans are split,
46%-46%, over whether Obama, a first-term senator, has
the experience to be president. In contrast, Clinton is
seen as having enough experience by 2-1, McCain by 3-1.
Still, 29% of those who say Obama doesn't have enough
experience support him against McCain. Other priorities
determine their votes. Those surveyed rank "leadership
and vision" and positions on issues as more important
than experience.
"Obama has transitioned from a movement leader to a
presidential leader," says Democratic pollster Celinda
Lake, saying he has "crossed the threshold" to being
judged able to handle the job.
However, Clinton could rebound by winning the Texas
and Ohio primaries next week, Lake says. And Obama's
lead could make Clinton the underdog, perhaps prompt-
ing some voters, particularly baby boomer women, to
"give her a second look."
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
In a general-election matchup among registered voters,
Obama leads McCain by 4 percentage points, 49%-45%;
McCain leads Clinton 49%-47%.
McCain does better among likely voters, edging Clinton
by 4 points, Obama by 1.
The Arizona senator seems to have the Republican nomi-
nation in hand, crushing former Arkansas governor Mike
Huckabee 61%-23% among Republicans and Republican-
leaning independents.
Among Democrats, Obama has surged to a double-digit
lead, thumping Clinton 51%-39%. It is the first time
Obama has topped 50% and the first time he has led
Clinton outside the survey's margin of error.
However, the 12-point lead is at odds with a separate
Gallup tracking poll, taken Friday through Sunday, that
gave Obama a 47%-45% edge.
Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, attrib-
uted the disparity to sampling error and the contest's
volatility. "There's just a lot of movement," he says.
"Democrats are not yet totally honed in on exactly who
they're going to vote for."
Clinton strategist Mark Penn concurs. Obama's wide lead
"is reflective of momentum from the last series of pri-
maries," he says. "We expect the polls to snap back to
Hillary if we are successful in Ohio and Texas."
The telephone poll of 2,021 adults has a margin of error
of +/- 2 percentage points. The margin of error for the
subsample of 1,009 Democrats is +/- 3 points; for the
Republican sample of 829, it is +/- 4 points
Page 6
AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION FEBRUARY 26, 2008, 8A
Nader's candidacy rankles Democrats
Some blame him for Gore's loss in 2000
By David Jackson
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Ralph Nader is back, and the consumer
advocate says he's no spoiler.
"The two parties have spoiled our country," said Nader,
who has launched another White House bid. "They're
the real spoilers."
Some Democrats beg to differ, saying Nader won just
enough votes in Florida in 2000 to deny Al Gore the
presidency, though they don't think he will affect this
election, given his poor showing in 2004.
"People are simply not going to make that mistake
again," said Chris Lehane, Gore's press secretary during
the 2000 campaign against George W. Bush.
In a telephone interview, Nader said he is motivated to
make a third-party run because no one else is addressing
corporate dominance in Washington. He called for a
"Jeffersonian revolution" that would rein in the
Pentagon, provide health insurance for all Americans and
generate a "living wage" for all workers.
He criticized Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary
Rodham Clinton and Republican John McCain on issues
such as the Iraq war. "You don't get the sense that
they're really going to get us out of there," Nader said.
He said that is especially true of McCain, calling him "the
candidate for permanent war and intervention."
Charles Black, senior adviser to the McCain campaign,
called the 2000 result in Florida a "once-in-a-thousand-
years scenario." Black added that there's no way to tell
what would have happened if Nader was not on the bal-
lot.
"I think he'll get less than 1% of the vote," Black said.
"The odds of that being the difference in any one state
are remote."
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
Lehane, describing himself a "Nader hater," mocked
Nader's professed concern for the economy, the environ-
ment and the labor movement. "His being on the ticket
in 2000 has caused the nation to go backward on each of
those issues," he said. "It just comes down to a guy
who's a megalomaniac."
In the 2000 race, Nader racked up 97,488 votes in
Florida, dwarfing the 537 votes that separated Bush and
Gore after a recount and controversial Supreme Court
decision that stopped the Florida recount effort. Lehane
also said Nader's presence on the ballot in 2000 forced
Gore to spend more money and campaign in Oregon and
Washington state than the Democratic nominee would
have liked.
Nationally, Nader carried about 2.7% of the vote in 2000.
Four years later, he won only 0.38% of the vote, though
he was on the ballot in 34 states and the District of
Columbia compared with 43 states and the district dur-
ing the 2000 race.
Nader said Democrats fought to keep him off the ballot
in key states in 2004, but he is ready to fight back this
time. "I don't want to unfurl the white flag," he said.
Donna Brazile, Gore's campaign manager in 2000, said,
"Democrats who are hungry for change" are more than
satisfied with Obama or Clinton, leaving nothing more
than "crumbs" for an insurgent such as Nader.
She jokes: "The only person excited today is John
McCain, who will no longer be the oldest person in the
race."
Nader turns 74 on Wednesday. McCain is 71.
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AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION FEBRUARY 25, 2008, 1A
Ready on Day One?
None of the top three contenders for president has ever run a government or
a business. The question now: How much does that really matter?
By David Jackson
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Ready, or not?
Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clinton
and Barack Obama and Republican John McCain all boast
about their preparation and credentials for the Oval
Office — and their ability to, as Clinton has called it, be
"ready on Day One to solve our problems."
In South Texas last week, the New York senator urged
voters "to think who you want to have in the White
House answering the phone at 3 o'clock in the morning
when some crisis breaks out somewhere in the world."
McCain said in Columbus, Ohio, "I'm not the youngest
candidate, but I am the most experienced."
And Obama said in Austin that his "cumulative experi-
ence," including as a community organizer in Chicago, "is
the reason that I have the capacity to bring people
together" and lead the nation.
Maybe so, but the three leading contenders for president
have less executive grounding than anyone elected to
the White House in nearly a half-century. Each candidate
has scored impressive achievements in life, but none has
run a city or state, a small business or large corporation
— or any bureaucracy larger than their Senate staffs and
campaign teams.
The crux of Clinton's campaign against Obama for the
Democratic nomination centers on whether the 46-year-
old, first-term senator from Illinois is ready to be presi-
dent. In recent days, McCain, 71, has taken a similar line,
calling Obama "dangerously naive."
The debate is sure to continue into the fall over what
experience is essential before taking on the job of man-
aging the government, negotiating with Congress, com-
manding the armed forces, mobilizing public support at
home and responding to crises abroad.
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
What sort of president would each contender be on Day
One? And how are voters supposed to figure that out?
The Senate, home base for all three, is a better place to
nurture presidential ambitions than to train for the
White House, says Stanley Renshon, a political scientist
at the City University of New York and psychoanalyst
who has written books on the presidencies of Bill
Clinton and George W. Bush. The White House and the
Congress often demand different skills and styles, he
says.
"As a senator, you're sitting around in a committee or
making a Senate speech and if you say, 'We ought to do
X' and it turns out you should have done Y, you bury the
speech or nuance it with another speech," Renshon says.
"You have command responsibility as president. When
you decide to send troops or not to send troops, that's a
real commitment in terms of consequences."
He says voters haven't focused on the readiness issue —
Clinton's questions about Obama's experience haven't
noticeably stalled his momentum — but predicts they
eventually will turn to it. "Right now, people haven't
really started to concentrate on the hard choices they'll
have to make to trust" the candidates as potential presi-
dents.
So far, the political watchword in the 2008 campaign
hasn't been experience; it's been change. The candidates
with the most executive experience didn't make it to the
final rounds of primaries and caucuses — among
Republicans, Mitt Romney, a former CEO and
Massachusetts governor who ran the 2002 Winter
Olympics, and among Democrats, Bill Richardson. He
served in Congress, in Bill Clinton's Cabinet and at the
United Nations before becoming governor of New
Mexico.
"In my view, because the relationship between the
Congress and (President Bush) has been so dysfunction-
al, voters basically saw experience as a negative factor,"
Richardson says. "They wanted something new and dif-
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ferent. Voters wanted an inspirational type of candidate
who was perceived to be a non-politician. I tried to
weave 'change' and 'experience' as my mantra, but it just
didn't work."
Before the Iowa caucuses, Richardson ran three wry, 30-
second TV ads that showed him at a mock job interview.
"OK, 14 years in Congress, U.N. ambassador, secretary of
Energy, governor of New Mexico, negotiated with dicta-
tors," a bored middle manager behind a desk said, clearly
unimpressed as he thumbed through Richardson's appli-
cation.
"So what makes you think you can be president?"
‘Mr. Government' fails
The obtuse interviewer may have had a point.
Predictions about presidential performance — even for
candidates with impressive backgrounds — are notori-
ously unreliable, says historian and presidential biogra-
pher Robert Dallek.
"There are so many presidents with a great deal of expe-
rience who failed miserably," Dallek says. "Think first of
all of James Buchanan, 1857 to 1861, from the run-up to
the Civil War — so experienced that they called him 'Mr.
Government' — and now invariably listed as one of the
worst presidents in the country's history."
Buchanan had been a member of the House and Senate,
secretary of State and minister to Great Britain. As presi-
dent, however, he did little to respond when Southern
states began to secede from the Union.
Buchanan's successor was Abraham Lincoln, a prairie
lawyer who served eight years in the Illinois Legislature
and one term in the U.S. House. "He had next to no
experience at all," Dallek says, "and now is seen as prob-
ably the greatest president in the country's history."
Voters have to assess for themselves a candidate's judg-
ment, character and common sense, but "it really is a
crapshoot," he says. "Experience is fine, but does it guar-
antee anything? Not by any stretch of the imagination."
Even running a smart, disciplined campaign offers no
assurances of competence. Ronald Reagan, widely
viewed as one of the most consequential post-World
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
War II presidents, dumped his top campaign staff in 1980
after struggling in the opening Iowa caucuses. Jimmy
Carter led a shrewd, streamlined campaign for the job in
1976 — and then had a difficult presidency and was
ousted by Reagan after one term.
Reading the clues
There are clues to what sort of president the current
contenders would be from what they've said and what
they've done:
uMcCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, touts
his service to the nation since he took an oath of alle-
giance as an entering midshipman at the U.S. Naval
Academy at Annapolis at age 17. He was a Navy aviator
and a POW during the Vietnam War, returning to serve
for a year as commanding officer of a Navy training
squadron with more than 1,000 servicemembers — an
experience he cited in a candidates' debate in California
last month when asked about his leadership credentials.
An Arizona senator for more than two decades, he has
been chairman of the Commerce Committee and a lead-
ing voice on national security issues. He's also known for
bucking Republican orthodoxy and working across party
lines, one reason the most conservative elements of his
party have been cool to his campaign.
For all his experience, McCain has acknowledged that he
doesn't know much about the economy, which is the
most important issue worrying Americans, according to
a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken this month.
"The issue of economics is not something I've under-
stood as well as I should," he told reporters in December
while campaigning in New Hampshire. He joked, "I've got
(former Federal Reserve chairman Alan) Greenspan's
book."
Although McCain's campaign has done well lately, it had
to recover from an implosion last summer when his top
aides left, his poll standing slumped and his campaign
bank accounts were mostly exhausted.
uClinton, 60, has displayed her mastery of the details of
domestic and foreign policy in a string of campaign
debates. During eight years as first lady, she represented
the United States in visits to 80 countries. In seven years
as a senator from New York, she's worked on issues
Page 9
AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION FEBRUARY 25, 2008, 1A
from veterans benefits to farm aid, sometimes in
alliances with Republicans, and served on the Armed
Services Committee.
She describes herself as a strong manager who could
ride herd on the sprawling federal bureaucracy — in con-
trast, she says, to Obama.
"I do think that being president is the chief executive
officer," she said at a debate in Las Vegas last month. "I
respect what Barack said about setting the vision, setting
the tone, bringing people together. But I think you have
to be able to manage and run the bureaucracy. You've
got to pick good people, certainly, but you have to hold
them accountable every single day."
Obama and others say she failed in her chief executive
initiative as first lady. Her management of a health care
task force early in her husband's presidency produced a
controversial overhaul plan that went nowhere.
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
uObama says he has proved his good judgment by
opposing the Iraq invasion from the start, in contrast to
Clinton and McCain. He describes himself as an inspira-
tional leader who can bring opposing forces together to
get things done better than "this same old cast of charac-
ters" in Washington. He doesn't see the president as
being "an operating officer," he says, and would rely on
strong advisers to manage the details.
"Now, being president is not making sure that schedules
are being run properly or the paperwork is being shuf-
fled effectively," he said at the Las Vegas debate. "It
involves having a vision for where the country needs to
go."
Even so, Clinton and McCain say Obama offers more
soaring rhetoric than solid results and question whether
he can claim significant legislative accomplishments or
adequate experience.
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AS SEEN IN USA TODAY’S NEWS SECTION FEBRUARY 25, 2008, 1A
He served eight years in the Illinois Legislature and has
been in the U.S. Senate for three. That's less high-level
government experience than any president since Dwight
Eisenhower, whose background was in the military.
The five-star general was supreme commander of allied
forces in Europe during World War II.
Lincoln or Hoover?
"Maybe (Obama) is Lincoln; maybe he's (the belea-
guered Herbert) Hoover. There's no way to tell in
advance," says David Frum, a White House speechwriter
at the beginning of Bush's tenure who wrote an account
of his early presidency, The Right Man. However, that's
probably not the decisive question, Frum says.
"Americans don't vote for the guy with the most experi-
ence. If that was true, (Richard) Nixon would have
defeated (John) Kennedy in 1960," Frum says. Instead,
voters want candidates to meet a threshold of readiness
that makes them an acceptable risk to elect as president.
"What they seem to do is decide, 'Do you have enough?'"
Little time to learn the ropes
The question of readiness matters because presidents
often face unexpected challenges in their first weeks and
months in office, before there's been much time to
install a staff or learn the ropes.
Less than three months after taking office in 1961,
Kennedy approved an invasion of Cuba by anti-Castro
forces that had been planned during the Eisenhower
administration. The Bay of Pigs venture failed disastrous-
ly and raised doubts among world leaders about the
young American president.
Less than four months after taking office, Harry Truman
approved dropping atomic bombs on two Japanese cities
— the culmination of a nuclear weapons program he
hadn't even been told about as vice president. Six days
later, after an immediate death toll estimated at more
than 100,000, Japan surrendered. World War II was over.
Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
It's possible no one can be fully prepared for the velocity
of the presidency, a point some presidents and their
closest advisers acknowledge after they've made it there.
Bill Clinton had been Arkansas governor for 12 years and
had been a leading figure in national debates over
domestic policy issues. Even so, after he became presi-
dent in 1993, he quickly became enmeshed in contro-
versies over gays in the military and the White House
travel office, among other things. Only after stunning set-
backs in the 1994 congressional elections -- Democrats
lost control of the House and Senate — did he seem to
find his footing as president.
George W. Bush had been Texas governor for six years,
CEO of oil industry ventures and managing partner of
baseball's Texas Rangers before moving into the Oval
Office in 2001 — an "MBA president" who would bring
corporate decision-making to the job. Less than eight
months later, he had to deal with the Sept. 11 attacks.
His job approval rating hit a historic high of 90% in the
aftermath, but Bush has seen Americans' assessment of
his presidency sour amid questions over whether the
war in Iraq was necessary. His job approval rating was
33% in the latest USA TODAY poll.
"The difference between being president and virtually
any other job — running a company or being in the
Congress or in the Senate or even being a governor — is
the breadth and rapidity of decisions that come at you,"
says John Podesta, who was Bill Clinton's chief of staff.
Podesta heads a think tank, the Center for American
Progress.
"You need to both be able to chart a course that empha-
sizes your priorities but (also) be able to handle and
manage things that you never even thought of that are
coming at you from left field," Podesta says.
"Stuff just happens."
Page 11
Critical Inquiry:

1. Make a list of your top five issues in this election. Using the links to the RNC, DNC and individual candidate web-
sites listed in Additional Resources section of this case study, determine each candidate’s position on your issues.
Hold mini-debates on a variety of election-year issues where each participant must use only the information
available on a candidate’s website to defend his or her position.

2. Create an online ad campaign or YouTube video that would espouse the best way to handle the conflict over
Michigan and Florida given the DNC’s decision to strip them of their delegates after they disobeyed party rules
and changed their primary dates. Make sure it addresses any sense of disenfranchisement that voters in these
two states may feel, as well as concerns that any changes to the DNC’s decision after the voting has already taken
place would unfairly benefit or harm either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

3. Recently, Hillary Clinton has accused the media of giving Barack Obama a free ride. As suggested in the Election
2008 site, create a list of bias and/or neutral language used in the media that would either support or contradict
her assertions.

Future Implications:

1. Belying the customary truism that money is as important as message in political campaigns, front-runner John
McCain nearly ran out of money early in the campaign and Mike Huckabee had relatively little to run on from the
start. On the Democratic side, however, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have had strong financial support
and set fund-raising records. Why is it that a strong financial position in the primary seems not to have benefited
candidates on the Republican side of the equation? How might this disparity play out in the general election?
Which side is most likely to benefit?

2. Whoever wins the White House in November will almost certainly come from the ranks of the Senate, the first
time that's happened since John F. Kennedy in 1960. How might this relatively equal footing (Senator vs. Senator)
impact the dynamics of this election? What role do you expect Senate voting records to play in each party’s cam-
paign strategy?

3. Our next president will be the first to take the oath of office during an ongoing war since Richard Nixon in 1969.
Contrast the leading candidates’ positions on the war in Iraq. How will their positions impact their electability in
November? Do you see an end to this war in 2009? Why or why not?

For more information, log on to www.usatodaycollege.com Page 12

Voices Extension:

The questions and activities below utilize USA TODAY's Voices initiative to help you and your fellow students learn
about, debate and inspire action on issues of importance in our country and world.

The Voices website (voices.usatoday.com) provides information and tools you can use to get discussions, forums or
debates going on any number of important topics.

1. Using the Voices toolkit (voices.usatoday.com), plan an activity or event that would enable students to better
understand the leading candidates’ positions on important issues and provide venues for students to channel their
interest in a particular issue into on-the-ground or on-the-web support for a candidate.

2. “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a national
election.” — Bill Vaughan. As suggested in the Voices Election 2008 website (voices.usatoday.com), create a
Videocast (including music, images, and voice over) on one or more changes to the elections /campaigns that
would increase Gen Millennium interest and help promote a more involved electorate in the coming years.

Additional Resources:
v USA TODAY Resources:
v Political News: U.S. Politics, Election 2008 & Presidential Candidates
www.usatoday.com/news/politics/default.htm

v Track delegates
www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/delegate-tracker.htm

v Track polls
www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker

v The Democratic Party

www.democrats.org

v The Republican National Committee

www.gop.com

v Hillary Clinton
www.hillaryclinton.com

v Barack Obama
www.barackobama.com

v John McCain
www.johnmccain.com

v Ralph Nader
www.votenader.com

For more information, log on to www.usatodaycollege.com Page 13