Ranges (Up till 12.

15pm HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.06315-48

EURJPY

131.18-38

USDJPY

123.35-48

EURGBP

0.69915-99

GBPUSD

1.5196-1.5220

USDSGD

1.4236-65

USDCHF
AUDUSD

1.0142-70
0.7092-0.7115

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.975-36.07
1169.5-1175.0

NZDUSD

0.6460-80

USDTWD

32.782-975

USDCAD

1.3314-31

USDCNH

6.4073-6.4180

AUDNZD

1.0970-97

XAU

1065.5-1071.5

Key Headlines

AFP is reporting that 2 Air France flights from

US to France diverted after bomb threats

First, a lot of EurUsd sellers but same time, bids

are just as good. The pair drifted lower very
slowly; so we probably wait for Europe to handle
the push.

Second, Japanese have been better buyers of

UsdJpy but could not take on the hidden seller
at 123.50, hearsay semi-official in stealth mode.

New regulation from PBOC sends CNH forward

points up.

FX Flows
Japanese banks bought UsdJpy but offers at 123.50
stalled the rally. When dollar was up there, we didnt see
thick offers up there when dollar was up at 123.48. We
do hear semi-official name but suspect offers are in
stealth mode. Small stops are developing above 123.60.
The price action in EurUsd is similar to yesterday. There
are both sellers and bids the pair drifting lower very
slowly. Our trader Sam said he sees bids at 1.0630 in
platform and offers at 1.0660. I suspect 1.0650 will
attract sellers too. Digital option at 1.0600 and then at
1.0550. ECB speakers today Mersch at 9.00am CET;
Coene at 3.35pm CET.
Profit taking cited in EurGbp pushed GbpUsd below
1.5200. Chatter from street there are offers in GbpUsd
above 1.5240 but same time, offers in EurGbp nearer to
0.7010.
Aud and Nzd are dull too. AudNzd profit taking seen
early Asia near 1.0990s and drifted down to 1.0972. Our
trader Sam said market is still piling NzdUsd shorts after
yesterdays dairy auction. Offers should come in ahead of
0.6500. Aussie rates are pointing spot AudUsd to
0.7225.

UsdCad ended Toronto at 1.3315 and climbed slowly

towards 1.3330. Oil futures are stable but this is more of
a Usd story. There are bids sitting under 1.3290 and
offers are light. In rates space, fair value points to 1.3275,
so we are not so far off. Maybe worth looking at AudCad
cross?
Spot Gold is offered but interestingly, we see one North
Asian name picking up this precious metal near 1067.

Asians
US dollar advanced against the Asian currencies the
most significant move was in the CNH 1-year forward
points. The points moved from 1750 to 1860. From what
I heard, the regulators have imposed a 200-point
administrative fee for all CNH FX transactions for the
offshore Chinese branches. Which meant that any
offshore branch transacting FX with Chinese corporates
will be subjected to this fee. This is not in black and
white.
Our trader Gary suspects this will ultimately push
USDCNH up as well.
UsdSgd challenging offers atop 1.4260, got to 1.4265 and
there are more offers up to 1.4300.

Who said what

South Korea: Government to raise antiterrorism spending by Krw100bn

Obama: Hollande excellent partnership before
Paris attack
Obama: Hollande wants to do more after Paris
attack
Obama: Always welcome Russia going after ISIS
Obama:
Greenspan: Emerging markets in very serious
trouble
PBOC Advisor Huang: Stimulus has little effect
on world economy
PBOC Advisor Huang: China needs reforms for
mid-high speed growth
China Xi: China economy still in reasonable
range
China
Xi:
Chinas
positive
economic
fundamentals remain unchanged
China Xi: China economy faces downward
pressure
China Xi: China economy coping with temporary
pain

News & Data

Australia Sept Conference Board Leading Index

-0.1% from -0.4%
Australia Oct Westpac Leading Index M/M

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Australia Q3 Wage Price Index Q/Q unchanged

at 0.6%
Australia Q3 Wage Price Index Y/Y unchanged
at 2.3%
China Oct New Home Price rise in 27 cities M/M

AFR: Reserve Bank's Guy Debelle says 'We just

don't understand' flash crashes
The factors behind sudden moves in prices of bonds and
currency pairs remain a concerning mystery, according
to the Reserve Bank assistant governor Guy Debelle. Dr
Debelle has led a global task force into reforming
financial market benchmarks and is considered the
foremost expert on the "plumbing" of financial markets.
He said the October 2014 "flash rally" in US Treasuries
and a swift move in the New Zealand dollar in
September 2015 that reversed in a matter of minutes,
may seem immaterial but raised concerns about market
structure.
http://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/reservebanks-guy-debelle-says-we-just-dont-understand-flashcrashes-20151118-gl1nw3
WSJ: The Draghi Inevitability
Mario Draghi already laid the rhetorical groundwork for
extending or expanding the scope of the ECBs QE
program. Yet the growth data show that the ECBs policy
hasnt lived up to its advertising. Exports are falling
despite the euros decline because slowing growth in
developing economies means many of Europes
traditional customers arent prepared to buy at any price.
Europe may have further to fall before it hits policy rock
bottom.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-draghi-inevitability1447806361?mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ: Dollars Revival Poses New Threat to
Commodities
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates next month for the first time since 2006 have
fueled an autumn dollar revival. Commodity prices have
slumped over the same period, reflecting deepening
concerns about hefty supply and the appetite for the
worlds largest consumer of many raw materials, China.
Since Oct. 1, a period in which expectations for expansive
central-bank policy in Europe and China have helped
support stock and bond prices, Nymex crude futures are
down 9.1%, copper is off 8.7% and gold has dropped
4.1%. Continued dollar gains will likely add to the
pressure on oil and other commodity prices, analysts
said, as globally traded commodities are priced in
dollars. Ripples from the dollars rise were evident in late
2014 and early this year, when emerging-market
currencies and other commodity-related assets were
battered.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/dollars-revival-poses-newthreat-to-commodities-1447806958?
mod=wsj_nview_latest&alg=y
Business Times: SGX fires warning on suspect
China-linked impairments, write-offs
Singapore Exchange (SGX) has flagged disclosure
concerns over some companies, particularly several with
large operations in China. Some companies have
reported customer claims for compensation more than
10 times the value of the original sales, while others
inflated trade receivables written off, and provided little
clarity. Some made significant loans and advances to
business associates, which were not part of the normal
course of business. These debts were eventually deemed
uncollectible and written off. There are also others which
made impairment provisions on their fixed assets such
as factories and land on the basis that discounted cash
flow from the business was impaired and the value-inuse negligible.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companiesmarkets/sgx-fires-warning-on-suspect-china-linkedimpairments-write-offs
WSJ: Air Liquide to Buy Airgas for $10.3 Billion
Frances Air Liquide SA agreed to pay $10.3 billion for
U.S.-based Airgas Inc., which produces cylinders of gases
used in manufacturing, food production, health care and
to fill helium balloons. Air Liquide, which makes large
volumes of gases including hydrogen used for carcharging stations, highlighted the complementary
businesses of the two companies, in a statement. Under
the deals terms, Air Liquide would pay Airgas
shareholders $143 a share. Airgas stock jumped more
than 29% to $137.35 on Tuesday. The deal, unanimously
approved by the companies respective boards, is subject
to regulatory and Airgas shareholders approval.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/air-liquide-to-buy-airgas1447789070?mod=wsj_nview_latest
Jeremy Warner in Telegraph: Europe is sliding
towards the abyss, and the terrorists know it
Terrorism is defined by the US State Department as
"premeditated,
politically
motivated
violence
perpetrated against non-combatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended
to influence an audience. The atrocities in Paris at the
weekend conform to every one of those characteristics.
For an economy that relies heavily on tourism, any
nascent recovery in France, which recorded 0.3pc
growth in the third quarter, may well be snuffed out by
the latest carnage. The terrorists have given President
Hollande the excuse he was looking for to abandon
eurozone-imposed fiscal constraints, but his escape will
only make Frances long-term economic predicament
worse still.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/1200171
0/Europe-is-sliding-towards-the-abyss-and-theterrorists-know-it.html
Nikkei: Securities watchdog eyes record fine
topping 7bn yen
Japanese regulators are expected to recommend as early
as this month a penalty of more than 7 billion yen ($56.3
million) for Toshiba for book-padding that they contend
had a substantial adverse impact on investors. The
Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission, part
of the Financial Services Agency, has undertaken a fullscale investigation based on scandal-related write-downs
of earnings for the past seven years, which the company
announced Sept. 7. Profits were downgraded by a total of
224.8 billion yen, with previously reported gains turning
to losses in multiple years. The securities watchdog
considers this falsification of financial statements.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Securitieswatchdog-eyes-record-fine-topping-7bn-yen

redundant dockland. It would have housed 1,000

Chinese companies wanting to do business in the UK in a
tax-friendly zone.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d964702c-84a5-11e58095-ed1a37d1e096.html#axzz3rahRIqbV

Kathimerini: After pact with lenders, gov't has to

pass bill, agree next reforms
Greece and its lenders agreed late on Monday night the
measures needed to unlock another 12 billion euros in
bailout loans but there will be no letup for the
government as it has to pass the reforms through
Parliament by Friday and immediately begin discussing
the next set of prior actions.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/203522/article/ekathime
rini/news/after-pact-with-lenders-govt-has-to-pass-billagree-next-reforms
Telegraph: Greece agrees deal to unlock 12bn in
bail-out cash
Greece has reached an agreement to unlock the first
major tranche of rescue money owed to the country
under its 86bn international bail-out programme.
Athens has successfully passed the 48 "milestones"
demanded by its EU creditors, freeing up 12bn in bailout funds for the beleaguered debtor. Of the funds, 2bn
will go to the government, and 10bn has been
earmarked to recapitalise the country's banking system.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/120001
72/Greece-reaches-deal-to-unlock-12bn-in-bail-outcash.html
FT: Liverpool plays catch up on Chinese
investment
It was to be the centrepiece of a mini Shanghai on the
Mersey. Now an international trade centre planned for
the Wirral could be built on a suburban industrial estate
behind Port Sunlight tennis club. The original 175m
scheme was an attempt to harness Chinese investment
and to underpin the 4.5bn Wirral Waters development
of offices, homes and warehouses on 500 acres of
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.