REGISTRO HISTORICO PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS - QUILLABAMBA AUTOMATICA

ESTACION: QUILLABAMBA AUTOMATICA

LATITUD: 12 41' 31'' S

DEPARTAMENTO: CUSCO

PARAMETRO: PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

LONGITUD: 7241' 31''O

ALTITUD: 1599 msnm

PROVINCIA: LA CONVENCION
DISTRITO: ECHARATE

Ao
1999

Enero
26.60

Febrero
47.70

Marzo
39.20

Abril
39.30

Mayo
22.30

Junio
6.70

Julio
30.00

Agosto
0.00

Septiembre
12.00

Octubre
23.50

Noviembre
30.90

2000
2001

39.10
37.90

39.70
41.20

24.70
32.50

19.30
15.40

9.30
18.40

15.20
15.90

6.60
17.20

11.20
7.90

19.50
16.70

17.70
23.50

21.70
23.40

2002
2003

36.70
36.80

43.50
44.80

36.60
36.10

18.10
22.80

17.90
19.30

7.70
5.20

18.50
3.90

17.60
28.40

10.80
20.80

35.90
49.60

27.60
22.30

2004
2005

42.20
43.80

40.70
33.90

35.80
38.40

25.50
30.80

18.10
13.60

5.30
3.90

20.40
11.40

20.50
14.40

18.70
21.60

32.70
16.10

26.50
17.10

2006
2007

58.60
50.30

42.40
18.20

47.30
33.30

32.90
37.90

12.20
25.30

11.10
8.40

7.50
15.30

20.80
4.70

8.10
14.80

25.20
39.80

28.40
42.20

2008
2009

50.90
24.30

29.10
43.60

30.60
35.70

37.00
20.60

10.70
7.70

1.40
5.10

7.70
8.50

12.50
10.50

30.90
11.90

37.60
53.00

32.40
45.20

2010
2011
2012

35.40
27.00
23.20

57.40
30.30
38.00

43.40
32.30
20.40

33.00
32.60
26.80

9.20
35.90
21.00

9.30
7.60
15.10

10.90
15.30
9.10

13.80
25.70
12.70

19.10
19.30
10.00

46.30
55.20
20.70

20.20
44.00
19.70

2013

37.10

32.00

34.10

31.40

7.30

9.10

9.50

27.10

21.60

41.80

34.90

MAX

58.60

57.40

47.30

39.30

35.90

15.90

30.00

28.40

30.90

55.20

45.20

Diciembre
30.80

Mximo
47.70

29.20
25.60

39.70
41.20

43.40
45.80

43.50
49.60

35.20
38.50

42.20
43.80

34.20
22.90

58.60
50.30

26.80
41.30

50.90
53.00

30.20
38.80
41.60

57.40
55.20
41.60

42.70

42.70

45.80

58.60

Distribucin de probabilidades pluviomtricas mediante Gumbel

Precipitacin (mm)

Ao

Max. Precip. Mes

1999

47.70

47.70

0.33

2
3
4

2000
2001
2002

39.70
41.20
43.50

39.70
41.20
43.50

73.47
50.01
22.77

5
6
7
8
9
10

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

49.60
42.20
43.80
58.60
50.30
50.90

49.60
42.20
43.80
58.60
50.30
50.90

1.77
36.86
19.99
106.68
4.12
6.91

11
12
13
14

2009
2010
2011
2013

53.00
57.40
55.20
41.60
Suma

53.00
57.40
55.20
42.70
675.8

22.36
83.33
48.01
31.04
507.6

14

xi

(xi - x)^2

Clculo variables probabilsticas

x=

S=

xi =
n

48.27

mm

( x i x )2
i =1

6.25

mm

6
= s=

4.87

mm

u=x 0 .5772 =

45.46

mm

n1

Clculo de las Precipitaciones Diarias Mximas Probables para distintas frecuen

Periodo Retorno

Variable
Reducida

Precip. (mm)

Prob. de
ocurrencia

Aos
2
5
10
25
50

YT
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019

XT'(mm)
47.2449
52.7672
56.4235
61.0432
64.4703

F(xT)
0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9600
0.9800

100
500

4.6001
6.2136

67.8721
75.7333

0.9900
0.9980

( x u )

F( x )= ee

imas Probables para distintas frecuencias

Correccin
intervalo fijo
XT (mm)
53.3868
59.6270
63.7585
68.9788
72.8514
76.6955
85.5786

( x u )

F( x )= ee

Coeficientes para las relaciones a la lluvia de duracin 24 horas

0.30

0.39

0.46

0.52

Duraciones, en horas
5
6
0.57

0.61

12

18

0.68

0.80

0.91

Precipitaciones mximas para diferentes tiempos de duracin de lluvias

Tiempo de
Duracin

Cociente

24 hr

X24

18 hr

X18 = 91%

12 hr

X12 = 80%

8 hr

Precipitacin mxima Pd (mm) por tiempos de duracin

10
25
50

100

500

53.3868
48.5819

59.6270
54.2605

63.7585
58.0203

68.9788
62.7707

72.8514
66.2948

76.6955
69.7929

85.5786
77.8765

X8 = 68%

42.7094
36.3030

47.7016
40.5463

51.0068
43.3558

55.1830
46.9056

58.2811
49.5390

61.3564
52.1529

68.4629
58.1934

6 hr

X6 = 61%

32.5659

36.3724

38.8927

42.0770

44.4394

46.7843

52.2029

5 hr

X5 = 57%

30.4304

33.9874

36.3424

39.3179

41.5253

43.7164

48.7798

4 hr

X4 = 52%

27.7611

31.0060

33.1544

35.8690

37.8827

39.8817

44.5009

3 hr

X3 = 46%

2 hr

X2 = 39%

24.5579
20.8208

27.4284
23.2545

29.3289
24.8658

31.7302
26.9017

33.5117
28.4121

35.2799
29.9112

39.3661
33.3756

1 hr

X1 = 30%

16.0160

17.8881

19.1276

20.6936

21.8554

23.0087

25.6736

24
1.00

Intensidades de lluvia a partir de Pd, segn Duracin de precipitacin y Frecuencia de la misma

Tiempo de duracin
Hr
min

Intensidad de la lluvia (mm /hr) segn el Periodo de Retorno

10
25
50

2.2244
2.6990
3.5591

2.4845
3.0145
3.9751

2.6566
3.2233
4.2506

2.8741
3.4873
4.5986

3.0355
3.6830
4.8568

3.1956
3.8774
5.1130

4.5379
5.4277

5.0683
6.0621

5.4195
6.4821

5.8632
7.0128

6.1924
7.4066

6.5191
7.7974

180

6.0861
6.9403
8.1860

6.7975
7.7515
9.1428

7.2685
8.2886
9.7763

7.8636
8.9672
10.5767

8.3051
9.4707
11.1706

8.7433
9.9704
11.7600

120

10.4104

11.6273

12.4329

13.4509

14.2060

14.9556

60

16.0160

17.8881

19.1276

20.6936

21.8554

23.0087

24 hr

1440

18 hr

1080

12 hr

720

8 hr

480

6 hr

360

5 hr

300

4 hr

240

3 hr
2 hr
1 hr

100

misma

o
500 aos
3.5658
4.3265
5.7052
7.2742
8.7005
9.7560
11.1252
13.1220
16.6878
25.6736

I=

Representacin matemtica de las curvas Intensidad - Duracin - Perodo de retorno:

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793

0.7995
0.9929
1.2695

5.8143
6.9350
8.3524

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865

6.1738
5.8861
5.7038

1.5125
1.6915
1.8060

9.3376
9.9564
10.3011

38.1156
34.6462
32.5331

1.9373
2.1024
2.3428

10.6179
10.9178
11.2162

30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

4
5
6

480

4.5379

360

5.4277

300

6.0861

7
8
9

240

6.9403

180

8.1860

120

10.4104

5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

10

60

16.0160

4.0943

2.7736

11.3560

16.7637

10

4980

66.0869

58.1555

17.2280

94.8047

346.9435

Ln (d) =

N
1

5.3074

d=

2.4845

2
3
4

1080

3.0145

720

3.9751

480

5.0683

5
6
7

360

6.0621

300

6.7975

240

7.7515

8
9

180

9.1428

120

10

60

10

4980

Ln (d) =

201.8300

n=

Periodo de retorno para T = 5 aos

y
ln x
ln y
7.2724
0.9101

1440

ln x*ln y
6.6183

(lnx)^2
52.8878

1.1034
1.3801
1.6230

7.7071
9.0797
10.0201

48.7863
43.2865
38.1156

5.8861
5.7038
5.4806

1.8021
1.9166
2.0479

10.6071
10.9316
11.2237

34.6462
32.5331
30.0374

11.6273

5.1930
4.7875

2.2130
2.4534

11.4918
11.7454

26.9668
22.9201

17.8881

4.0943

2.8841

11.8086

16.7637

73.8116

58.1555

18.3335

101.2335

346.9435

d=

225.4212

n=

1440

2.6566

1080

3.2233

3
4
5

720

4.2506

480

5.4195

360

6.4821

6
7
8

300

7.2685

ln x
7.2724
6.9847

ln y
0.9770
1.1704

ln x*ln y
7.1055
8.1751

(lnx)^2
52.8878
48.7863

6.5793
6.1738
5.8861

1.4471
1.6900
1.8690

9.5205
10.4337
11.0014

43.2865
38.1156
34.6462

1.9835
2.1149
2.2800

11.3137
11.5909
11.8397

32.5331
30.0374
26.9668

240

8.2886

180

9.7763

5.7038
5.4806
5.1930

120

12.4329

4.7875

2.5203

12.0661

22.9201

10

60

19.1276

4.0943

2.9511

12.0829

16.7637

10

4980

78.9260

58.1555

19.0034

105.1296

346.9435

Ln (d) =

5.4850

d=

241.0407

n=

1440

ln x*ln y
7.6778

(lnx)^2
52.8878

2
3
4

1080

3.4873

720

4.5986

480

5.8632

6.9847
6.5793
6.1738

1.2491
1.5257
1.7687

8.7247
10.0383
10.9195

48.7863
43.2865
38.1156

5
6
7

360

7.0128

300

7.8636

240

8.9672

5.8861
5.7038
5.4806

1.9477
2.0622
2.1936

11.4646
11.7626
12.0222

34.6462
32.5331
30.0374

8
9

180

10.5767

120

13.4509

5.1930
4.7875

2.3587
2.5990

12.2484
12.4429

26.9668
22.9201

10

60

20.6936

4.0943

3.0298

12.4052

16.7637

10

4980

85.3880

58.1555

19.7904

109.7062

346.9435

Ln (d) =

N
1
2
3

5.5637

d=

260.7759

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793

1.1104
1.3037
1.5804

8.0750
9.1063
10.3977

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865

6.1738
5.8861
5.7038

1.8233
2.0024
2.1169

11.2568
11.7861
12.0741

38.1156
34.6462
32.5331

2.2482
2.4133
2.6537

12.3216
12.5321
12.7044

30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

3.0844

12.6288

16.7637

3.0355

1080

3.6830

720

4.8568

4
5
6

480

6.1924

360

7.4066

300

8.3051

7
8
9

240

9.4707

180

11.1706

120

14.2060

5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

10

60

21.8554

4.0943

Ln (d) =

4980

90.1820

5.6183

58.1555

d=

20.3366

275.4167

112.8829

n=

1440

3.1956

1080

3.8774

ln x
7.2724
6.9847

ln y
1.1618
1.3552

ln x*ln y
8.4490
9.4654

(lnx)^2
52.8878
48.7863

6.5793
6.1738
5.8861

1.6318
1.8747
2.0538

10.7360
11.5742
12.0888

43.2865
38.1156
34.6462

2.1683
2.2996
2.4647

12.3674
12.6034
12.7991

32.5331
30.0374
26.9668

720

5.1130

480

6.5191

360

7.7974

6
7
8

300

8.7433

240

9.9704

180

11.7600

5.7038
5.4806
5.1930

120

14.9556

4.7875

2.7051

12.9506

22.9201

10

60

23.0087

4.0943

3.1359

12.8393

16.7637

10

4980

94.9405

58.1555

20.8508

115.8733

346.9435

N
1

5.6697

d=

289.9493

n=

ln x*ln y
9.2460

(lnx)^2
52.8878

6.9847
6.5793
6.1738

1.4648
1.7414
1.9843

10.2309
11.4570
12.2508

48.7863
43.2865
38.1156

5.8861
5.7038
5.4806

2.1634
2.2779
2.4092

12.7339
12.9925
13.2040

34.6462
32.5331
30.0374

5.1930
4.7875

2.5743
2.8147

13.3682
13.4753

26.9668
22.9201

3.5658

2
3
4

1080

4.3265

720

5.7052

480

7.2742

5
6
7

360

8.7005

300

9.7560

240

11.1252

8
9

180

13.1220

120

16.6878

240
180
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Dur acin (m in)

I Vs. t

120
60

Power (I Vs. t)

Serie T= 5 aos
x
1440
Regresin T= 5 aos

1080
720

20.0000

480

f(x) = 225.4212 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

16.0000

360

12.0000

300

8.0000

240

4.0000

180

0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

I vs T

120
60

Dur acin (m in)

Power (I vs T)

Serie T= 10 aos
x
1440

Regresin T= 10 aos

1080
720

24.0000

480

20.0000

f(x) = 241.0407 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

16.0000

360

12.0000

300

8.0000

240

4.0000

180

0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

I vs T

120
60

Dur acin (m in)

Power (I vs T)

Serie T= 25 aos
x
1440

Regresin T= 25 aos

1080
720

24.0000
20.0000

480

f(x) = 260.7759 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

16.0000

360

12.0000

300

8.0000

240

4.0000

180

0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Dur acin (m in)

I vs T

120
60

Power (I vs T)

Serie T= 50 aos
x
1440

Regresin T= 50 aos

1080
720

25.0000
20.0000

480

f(x) = 275.4167 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

15.0000

360
300

10.0000

240

5.0000

180

0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Dur acin (m in)

I vs T

120
60

Power (I vs T)

Serie T= 100 aos

x
1440

Regresin T= 100 aos

1080
720

45.0000
40.0000
35.0000
30.0000
25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000

480
360
300

f(x) = 289.9493 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

240
180

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

I vs T

120
60

Dur acin (m in)

Power (I vs T)

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 500 aos

y
ln x
ln y
7.2724
1.2714

1440

360
300

346.9435

3
4
5

Ln (d) =

480

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 100 aos

N
1
2

720

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 50 aos

y
ln x
ln y

1440

10

n=

1080

f(x) = 201.8300 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 25 aos

y
ln x
ln y
2.8741
7.2724
1.0557

N
1

Regresin T= 2 aos

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 10 aos

N
1
2

Parmetros de ajuste

-0.6164

6.9847
6.5793
6.1738

5.4180

Perodo de retorno (aos)

K, m, n =

Serie T= 2 aos

In te n s id a d ( m m /h r )

3.5591

Duracin de la lluvia (min)

T=

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

2.6990

720

Intensidad (mm/hr)

t=

1440

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

1080

In te n s id a d (m m /h r )

Periodo de retorno para T = 2 aos

y
ln x
ln y
2.2244

In te n s id a d (m m /h r )

x
1440

I=

d
I =dt n
tn

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

N
1
2
3

en la cual:

I=

Con lo que de la anterior expresin se obtiene:

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

d= KT

Realizando un cambio de variable:

KT
tn

Serie T= 500 aos

x
1440
1080

Regresin T= 500 aos

720
480
360
300

f(x) = 323.5320 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

240
180

200

400

600

800

1000

Du racin (m in)
Column C

Power (Column C)

1200

1400

1600

120

In te n s i

Regresin T= 500 aos

f(x) = 323.5320 x^-0.6164

R = 0.9994

10

60

25.6736

4.0943

3.2455

13.2880

16.7637

10

4980

105.9368

58.1555

21.9468

122.2466

346.9435

Ln (d) =

5.7793

d=

323.5320

n=

-0.6164

200

400

600

800

1000

Du racin (m in)
Column C

Power (Column C)

1200

1400

1600

60

Serie T= 2 aos
y
2.2244
2.6990
3.5591
4.5379
5.4277
6.0861
6.9403
8.1860
10.4104
16.0160

Serie T= 5 aos
y
2.4845
3.0145
3.9751
5.0683
6.0621
6.7975
7.7515
9.1428
11.6273
17.8881

Serie T= 10 aos
y
2.6566
3.2233
4.2506
5.4195
6.4821
7.2685
8.2886
9.7763
12.4329
19.1276

Serie T= 25 aos
y
2.8741
3.4873
4.5986
5.8632
7.0128
7.8636
8.9672
10.5767
13.4509
20.6936

Serie T= 50 aos
y
3.0355
3.6830
4.8568
6.1924
7.4066
8.3051
9.4707
11.1706
14.2060
21.8554

Serie T= 100 aos

y
3.1956
3.8774
5.1130
6.5191
7.7974
8.7433
9.9704
11.7600
14.9556
23.0087

Serie T= 500 aos

y
3.5658
4.3265
5.7052
7.2742
8.7005
9.7560
11.1252
13.1220
16.6878

25.6736

Resumen de aplicacin de regresin potencial

Periodo de Retorno (aos)

Trmino ctte. De regresin (d)

Coef. De regresin [n]

201.82996692076

-0.61638608809

5
10
25
50
100
500
Promedio =

225.42123406649
241.04070566085
260.77594942674
275.41668064295
289.94930699803
323.53198798604
259.70940452884

-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809

d= KT
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
7

Ln (K) =

201.8300

225.4212

10

241.0407

25

260.7759

50

275.4167

100

289.9493

Regresin potencial
ln x
0.6931
1.6094
2.3026
3.2189
3.9120
4.6052

ln y
5.3074
5.4180
5.4850
5.5637
5.6183
5.6697

ln x*ln y
3.6788
8.7199
12.6296
17.9087
21.9789
26.1100

(lnx)^2
0.4805
2.5903
5.3019
10.3612
15.3039
21.2076

500

323.5320

6.2146

5.7793

35.9161

38.6214

692

1817.9658

22.5558

38.8413

126.9419

93.8667

5.2773

Termino constante de regresin (K) =

Coef. de regresin (m) =

K=

195.8347
0.084254

195.8347

m=

0.0843

C o n s ta n te d e R e g r e s i n d

En funcin del cambio de variable realizado, se realiza otra regresin de potencia entre las columnas del periodo de retorno (T) y el trmino constante de regresin (d),
para obtener valores de la ecuacin:

350.0000

f(x) = 195.8347 x^0.0843

R = 0.9878

300.0000
250.0000
200.0000
150.0000
100.0000
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Pe rodo de Retorno (aos )

d Vs. T

Power ( d Vs. T)

350

400

450

500

201.8300

225.4212

10

241.0407

25

260.7759

50

275.4167

100

289.9493

500

323.5320

La ecuacin de intensidad vlida para la cuenca resulta:

Donde:

0.084254
195.8347

I=

I = intensidad de precipitacin (mm/hr)

* T

T = Periodo de Retorno (aos)

0.61639

t = Tiempo de duracin de precipitacin (min)

Frecuencia aos

Tabla de intensidades - Tiempo de duracin

Duracin en minutos
25
30
35
28.55
25.51
23.20

5
76.99

10
50.22

15
39.11

20
32.76

83.17
88.17

54.25
57.51

42.25
44.79

35.39
37.52

30.84
32.69

27.56
29.22

100

95.24
100.97
107.04

62.13
65.86
69.83

48.39
51.30
54.38

40.53
42.96
45.55

35.32
37.44
39.69

500

122.59

79.97

62.28

52.16

45.46

2
5
10
25
50

40
21.37

45
19.87

50
18.62

55
17.56

25.06
26.57

23.08
24.47

21.47
22.76

20.12
21.33

18.97
20.11

31.56
33.46
35.47

28.70
30.43
32.26

26.44
28.03
29.71

24.58
26.06
27.63

23.04
24.42
25.89

21.72
23.03
24.42

40.63

36.94

34.03

31.64

29.65

27.96

CURVA IDF

INTENSIDAD (mm/h)

150.00

125.00

100.00

T2
T5
T10
T25
T50
T10
0
T50
0

75.00

50.00

25.00

0.00
0

10

15

20

25

30

TIEMPO DE DURACION (min)

35

40

45

50

55

60

60
16.64
17.98
19.06
20.59
21.83
23.14
26.50

T2
T5
T10
T25
T50
T10
0
T50
0

55

60