Rabindra Chaulagai

PROBABILISTIC SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT:

This paper explores the method of solving the slope stability

problems through probabilistic analysis approach. One sample problems will be
chosen as a case study then, the probabilistic analysis will be done through
computer software known as Geo Studio. Same problem will be solved by manual
calculations through different approach and the results will be compared. Probability
of failure of slope with varying soil strength parameters such as cohesion, internal
angle of friction and unit weight is the anticipated as a final result.

Estimation Method (PEM), Finite Element

Method are some of the common approaches
to solve the slope stability problems.

INTRODUCTION
Stability of the slopes are determined by the
balance of shear stress and shear strength.
The basic requirement for the slope to be
stable is that the shear strength of the soil
must be greater than the shear stress
required for the equilibrium. Increased pore
water
pressure,
cracking,
swelling
weathering, cycling loading etc. are some
causes of slope failure. For the evaluation of
slope failure there are two types of method
deterministic analysis and probabilistic
analysis. Deterministic analysis is done
through Spencer, Bishop, Fellenius or any
other method and calculate the factor of
safety. However, deterministic analysis is
unable to account the uncertainties in
material and load parameters.

PROBABILITY OF FAILURE
The main goal of the probabilistic slope
stability analysis is to gain the complete
distribution of factor of safety values given a
set of random input variables with specified
statistical properties. From the distribution
of factor of safety values, probability of
failure can be determined. There are no any
specific values of probability of failure (Pf)
to define failure criterion. It is based upon
the judgement and experience of engineers.
The event whose probability is described
does not need to be a catastrophic failure. It
is always important to recognize the
consequences of failure. Some of the
failures may be catastrophic while some of
them may not be as catastrophic as other.
For example, a small sliding of a soil mass
do not have a secondary consequence or do
not pose a threat to life whereas big slope
failures or the sliding of a large mass of a
soil would be catastrophic, involve threat to
life and be very expensive for repair. So, in
both of the conditions probability of failure

In contrary to this, probabilistic analysis is

more advanced mathematical method.
Results from the deterministic analysis are
taken into account and shear strength
parameters mainly cohesion(c) and internal
angle of friction () are considered as a
random variables to calculate outputs:
probability of failure (Pf) and reliability
index
().Single
Random
Variable
Approach, Monte Carlo Simulation, Point
1

Rabindra Chaulagai
is used but the consequence of these events
are the most important.

Rabindra Chaulagai
distribution models such as normal
or log normal distribution.

RELIABILITY
Reliability (R) is an alternative measure of
stability and provides a means of evaluating
the uncertainties. Reliability in any slope
stability problems means that the slope will
not fail and remains stable under specific
design conditions which is defined by the
relation:
R = 1- Pf

3) Random
sampling
of
input
parameters and determining the
factor of safety many times.
4) Computation of probability of failure
based on the Factor of Safety values
which are less than 1.

(1)
The required number of simulations depends
upon the desired level of confidence and
number of variables. Following relation is
used to determine the number of simulation:

Where, Pf is the probability of failure and R

is the reliability index. Harr (1987) defines
the term reliability as: Reliability is the
probability of an object (item or system)
performing its required function adequately
for a specified period of time under stated
conditions. In the day to day life, people
are not familiar to the concept of reliability
and prefers the values of probabilities or the
factor of safety.

(2)

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Where, Nmc is the number of monte carlo

trials, d is normal standard deviate
corresponding to level of confidence, is
desired level of confidence expressed in
decimal and m is the number of variables.

Monte Carlo Simulation is a very simple,

flexible and powerful method applicable to
the wide range of problems. It is very easy
to use and can give us the accurate result if
enough simulations are performed. It has a
versatile computational procedure which is
suitable for the high speed computers.

The main disadvantage of this method is

that, it requires thousands of simulation to
give more accurate result which could be
time consuming in some cases. In practical
case, thousands of Monte Carlo trials are
conducted but the results are not much more
sensitive after having some thousand
number of trials. Computer software called
Geo-Studio has the project Slope/W
which incorporates the Monte Carlo
Simulation in its analysis.

Monte Carlo Simulation involves the

following procedures for probabilistic
analysis:
1) Selection of the appropriate method
for deterministic analysis.
2) Representation of variables such as
cohesion, coefficient of friction and
unit weight in terms of selected

Rabindra Chaulagai

Reference
(2012). Slope Modeling with Slope/W. Calgary, Alberta, Canada: GEO-SLOPE International Ltd.
Stankovi , J. N., Filipovi , S., Rajkovi , R., Obradovi , L., Marinkovi , V., & Kovaevi , R.
(2013). Risk And Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability-Deterministic And Probabilistic
Method . Journal of Trends in the Development of Machinery.
Gibson , W. (2011). Probabilistic Methods for Slope Analysis and Design. Australian
Geomechanics, 46, 12.
Hammah, R., & Yacoub, T. (2009). Probabilistic Slope Analysis with the Finite Element Method.
43rd US Rock Mechanics Symposium, (p. 8). Asheville
Duncan, J. M., & Wright, S. G. (2005). Soil Strength and Slope Stability. John Wiley & Sons Inc.
D.V. Griffiths, and G.A. Fenton, (2004), Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements
Journal of Geotechnical and Geo environmental Engineering, No.130, pp: 507-518.
Duncan, J. M. (2000). Factors of Safety and Reliability in Geo Technical Engineering. Journal of
Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering.