X

Price

Qua

Y
Quantity
12
0
11
4
10
8
9
12

14
12

f(x) = - 4x + 48
R = 1

10
8
6
4
2
0
8.5

9.5

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

1
1
1
0
4

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Price

SS
1
2
3

MS
80
0
80

80
0

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
48
0
65535
-4
0
65535

10

10.5

11

Quantity
f(x) = - 4x + 48
R = 1

Quantity
Linear (Quantity)

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

F Significance F
Err:512
Err:512

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Err:512
48
48
48
48
Err:512
-4
-4
-4
-4

Fishery Export of the US in 1879

Index: compare to price and quantity of 1913 (=100)

Source: The National Bureau of Economic Research, n

1879
Code

Price index
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222

93.4
89.6
76.7
77.5
82.6
81.7
84.5
83.8
80.7
80.4
81.4
80.1
79.3
119
119.3
86.6
85
84.9
92.5
92.5
117.3
102.9

Quantity Index
148.5
124.7
74.4
73
105.2
98.9
101.4
94.5
68.1
61.6
36.6
37
10.1
9.6
9.7
25.6
26.4
47.9
34.3
33.3
7
10.2

Quantity
160
140
120
100
80

f(x) = - 1.3962371569x + 181.

R = 0.1975134349

60
40
20
0
70

80

90

100

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.548854
R Square 0.301241
Adjusted R 0.264464
Standard E 31.78153
Observatio
21
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
1 8273.51 8273.51
19 19191.24 1010.065
20 27464.75

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 186.1662 47.42982 3.925089
93.4 -1.501353 0.524581 -2.862003

110

120

ntity of 1913 (=100)

Economic Research, nber.org

Quantity Index

Quantity Index
Power (Quantity Index)
Linear (Quantity Index)

1.3962371569x + 181.4073091953
975134349

100

110

120

130

F Significance F
8.191063 0.009977

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.000909 86.89449 285.438 86.89449 285.438
0.009977 -2.599314 -0.403392 -2.599314 -0.403392

Year and month

2009

2010

2011

2012

Catfish Processor Data

USD/pound
000 pound
Price
Production
Jan

2.59

19,262

Feb

2.54

20,658

Mar

2.55

22,660

Apr

2.60

20,147

May

2.55

18,818

Jun

2.51

19,017

Jul

2.50

19,451

Aug

2.55

18,502

Sep

2.52

18,893

Oct

2.44

19,480

Nov

2.51

15,743

Dec

2.47

16,554

Jan

2.46

19,465

Feb

2.48

22,617

Mar

2.42

22,438

Apr

2.48

18,511

May

2.48

19,142

Jun

2.51

19,063

Jul

2.54

18,006

Aug

2.51

20,386

Sep

2.51

20,280

Oct

2.53

18,894

Nov

2.56

15,941

Dec

2.60

16,851

Jan

2.85

18,204

Feb

3.03

15,564

Mar

3.21

17,984

Apr

3.37

13,979

May

3.50

12,591

Jun

3.47

12,408

Jul

3.66

12,779

Aug

3.65

14,233

Sep

3.72

13,410

Oct

3.62

12,893

Nov

3.51

11,843

Dec

3.52

11,321

Jan

3.43

13,427

Feb

3.50

14,447

Mar

3.46

14,717

Apr

3.41

11,998

May

3.22

13,379

Jun

3.10

12,463

Jul

2.88

13,276

Aug

2.79

14,442

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Catfish Proce

Product
25,000
20,000
f(x) = - 5798.6022179603x
R = 0.6057172227

15,000
10,000
5,000

0
2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40 3

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.778278
R Square 0.605717
Adjusted R 0.597503
Standard E 2040.118
Observatio
50
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Price

1
48
49

Coefficients
33121.34
-5798.602

2013

Sep

2.79

13,422

Oct

2.80

13,795

Nov

2.83

13,352

Dec

2.79

12,716

Jan

2.76

16,004

Feb

2.77

15,549

ultural Statistics Service, Catfish Processing.

Production

f(x) = - 5798.6022179603x + 33121.3444736392

Production
R = 0.6057172227
Linear (Production)

0 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.80

Y OUTPUT

SS
MS
F Significance F
3.1E+008 3.1E+008 73.74004 2.90E-011
2.0E+008 4162083
5.1E+008
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
1966.252 16.84491 8.75E-022 29167.93 37074.76 29167.93 37074.76
675.261 -8.587202 2.90E-011 -7156.305 -4440.899 -7156.305 -4440.899

Set of Assumption
Sale growth
Current asset/sales
Current liabilities/sales
Net fixed asset/sales
COGS/Sales
Depreciation rate
Interest rate on debt
Interest paid on cash and securities
Tax rate
Dividend payout ratio

10%
20%
8%
80%
50%
10%
10%
8%
40%
50%

Pro forma financial statement

Income statement
Sales
Cost of good solds
Interest payment on debt
Interest earned on cash and securities
Depreciation
Profit before tax
Taxes
Profit after tax
Dividend
Retained earnings

0
1,000
(500)
(40)
6
(100)
366
(146)
220
(110)
110

1
1,100
(550)
(40)
7
(120)
397
(159)
238
(119)
119

2
1,210
(605)
(40)
10
(141)
433
(173)
260
(130)
130

3
1,331
(666)
(40)
12
(166)
471
(189)
283
(141)
141

Balance sheet
Cash and marketable securities
Current asset
Fixed asset
At cost
Accumulated Depreciation
Net fixed asset
Total asset

0
80
200

107
220

136
242

166
266

1,100
(300)
800
1,080

1,300
(420)
880
1,207

1,529
(561)
968
1,346

1,792
(728)
1,065
1,497

Current liabilities
Debt
Common stock
Accumulated Retained Earnings
Total liabilities and equities

80
400
450
150
1,080

88
400
450
269
1,207

97
400
450
399
1,346

106
400
450
541
1,497

0
224

1
246

2
270

3
295

Free cash flow calculation

Profit after tax

+ Depreciation
+ Interest after tax
- Increase in current asset
+ Increase in current liabilities
- Increase in fixed asset at cost
- Interest after tax on cash
Free cash flows to the Firm
FCFE

100

Valuation
WACC
Long-term FCFF growth rate

117
24
(20)
8
(200)
(4)
170
146

137
24
(22)
9
(229)
(6)
183
159

161
24
(24)
10
(263)
(7)
196
172

1
176

2
188

3
201

176

188

201

20%
5%

0
Free cash flows to the Firm
Terminal value at the end of Year 5
Total cash flow
Present value of CFs from Year 1-5
bo sung tien mat va chung khoan thi truong
Value of the Firm at year 0
Value of Debt
Value of Equity

1,598
80
1,678
(320)
1,358

Sensivitiy Analysis

wacc
g

4
1,464
(732)
(40)
15
(194)
512
(205)
307
(154)
154

5
1,611
(805)
(40)
17
(226)
556
(222)
334
(167)
167

197
293

229
322

2,093
(922)
1,171
1,661

2,437
(1,148)
1,288
1,840

117
400
450
694
1,661

129
400
450
861
1,840

4
323

5
352

189
24
(27)
11
(301)
(9)
210
186

220
24
(29)
12
(344)
(10)
224
200

4
214

5
228
2511
2,740

214

1597.90
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%

10.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

12.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

14.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

16.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

18.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

20.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

22.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

24.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898

26.00%
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898
1597.898