4G Services, Architecture and Networks: Speculation and Challenges

4G Services, Architecture and Networks:
Speculation and Challenges
Ravi Jain
rjain@docomolabs-usa.com
January 24, 2003
Copyright 2003 DoCoMo Communications Laboratories USA, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
Outline
Introduction and Motivation

What is 4G anyway?
Pet peeves
Summary
Copyright 2003 DoCoMo Communications Laboratories USA, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
Summary
4G should be defined in terms of applications and services
Not purely by air interface protocol, backbone network or bandwidth
Coming: Gazillions of gizmos

Need for massive mobile data management
Rapid service introduction and heterogeneous technologies (air

interface, terminal device, backbone)
=> programmability and open APIs at all levels of the system
=> applications with market size of 1
Maturing industry
=> attend to environmental impacts (Jain & Wullert, Mobicom 02)
Plateau of revenue in current markets
=> B24B
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
Introduction
Mobile devices will dominate
Subscribers worldwide
Millions
Mobile phone
Wireline phone
1,400
1,200
1,000
TV households
800
600
PCs
400
200
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source:
Risto Perttunen,
McKinsey, 9/00
2005
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
Cellular vs Internet penetration

(Data from : ITU, 2001)
100
Taiwan
Cellular penetration
90
China
Italy
80
70
Neth.
Fr.
c = 1.51 i
2
R = 0.44
Den.
Ger.
Spain
60
Fin.
UK
Sw.
S. Kor.
Aus.
Japan
50
40
USA
Malay.
30
Canada
20
Brazil
10
0
India
20
40
60
80
Internet penetration3/3/2003
100
Ravi Jain
Strong growth in subscribers

Subscribers Double 97- 00
120
100.0
Millions of Subscribers
100
86.0
80
69.2
60
50.0
55.3
44.0
40
20
0
Dec-96
Mid-97
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Jul-00
Source: CTIA, 2000
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
Usage high and rising in all countries
250
221
Average MOU Per Month
204
200
186
182
145
150
137
132
132
123
100
50
Germany
Finland
Italy
Spain
Euro Avg.
France
U.K.
Sweden
U.S.
Source: CTIA, 2000

3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
Availability of wireless data devices

increasing
Wireless Internet (% of Population with capable devices)
Internet Penetration (% of Population)
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: CTIA, 2000

3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
BUT .
$ / MoU Falling
$0.60
$0.58 $0.57
$0.56
Average Price Per Minute
$0.53
$0.54
$0.50
$0.45
$0.43
$0.40
$0.35
$0.30
$0.28
$0.24
$0.22
$0.20
$0.20 $0.19
$0.18 $0.17
$0.10
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: CTIA, 2000
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
Strong Growth in Subscribers, Minutes, Data BUT

Falling $/MOU
$ / MOU falling
Subscribers Double 97- 00
120
100
$0.58 $0.57
$0.56
$0.53
86.0
80
Millions of Subscribers
$0.60
100.0
69.2
60
55.3
50.0
44.0
40
20
$0.54
$0.50
$0.45
$0.43
$0.40
$0.35
$0.28
$0.30
$0.24
$0.22
$0.20
$0.20 $0.19
$0.18 $0.17
$0.10
0
Dec-96
Mid-97
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jul-00
Data Services Exploding

Wireless Internet (% of Population with capable devices)
Internet Penetration (% of Population)
Usage high . . . And rising
250
70.00%
221
60.00%
186
182
50.00%
145
150
137
132
132
123
40.00%
30.00%
100
20.00%
50
10.00%
Germany
Finland
Italy
Spain
Euro Avg.
France
U.K.
Sweden
0
U.S.
Average MOU Per Month
204
200
0.00%
1998
Source: CTIA, 2000
1999
2000
2001
2002
3/3/2003
2003
2004
Ravi Jain
2005
10
DoCoMo ARPU
(voice and i-mode)
(JY)
12000
10000
(120)
8000
(880)
(1540)
6000
4000
10800
9270
2000
0
3/98
3/99
i-mode
Voice
(8620)
(7770)
(6940)
8740
8650
8480
3/2000
3/2001
3/2002
Source: NTT DoCoMo Website, www.nttdocomo.com Investor Relations

3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
11
Mobile Multimedia ( i-mode Access Breakdown*1)

*2
iMenu
iMenu Site
Site Breakdown
Breakdown by
by Category
Category *2
ii-mode
-mode Accesses
Accesses
iMenu sites
Ring tone / Screens
Information
i-mode compatible sites
Games / Horoscope
Transaction
Mail
Other entertainment
Database
23%
3/01
3/01
5%
5%
12%
5%
50%
39%
30%
14%
6%
37%
34%
21%
21% 20%
31%
27%
3/02
3/02
20%
*1 The numbers represent the percentage to the total accesses made as March 2001 and March 2002.
Source: NTT DoCoMo website
*2 % of each category out of total number of hits to iMenu sites as provided by content providers in March and March 2002
Ravi Jain
12
Copyright 2003 DoCoMo Communications Laboratories USA, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3/3/2003
1 billion gizmos by 200x

(Choose x = 4, 5, ...)
Gizmos and technology originally developed for one
purpose will be used in new and innovative ways for other
purposes
e.g. Bluetooth was primarily designed as a cable replacement but
can be used as a location technology
Two parallel, contradictory (or complementary) gizmo

trends leading to different location needs and capabilities
Integration:
cell phone as pager, organizer, e-wallet, radio, media player ...
Specialization:
different functionality, form factors, power requirements, connectivity,
processing and storage, fashion niches
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
13
Example: integration
DoCoMo 3G FOMA phone
Download 684 kbps, Upload 64 kbps
(nominal)
Still and video digital camera
Add text and frames to pictures or
split into a jigsaw puzzle
Send as email
Share video while talking
Remote video monitoring using a

second phone
i-motion service for multimedia
content download (music, movie clips
etc)
Source: NTT DoCoMo website
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
14
3G Woes
3G in Europe
Too little, too late, too pricey?
Sonera/Telefonica cancellation
3G in USA
Sprint PCS
AT&T rollout
3G in Japan
FOMA: first out the gate
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
15
WLAN: Threat or Opportunity
Source: Pyramid research

3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
16
Interaction characteristics
Human-Human:
voice, text, multimedia conversation and messaging
3D video
Human-Machine:
web access, remote operation
virtual reality
Machine-Machine:
telemetering, sensor/actuator networks
ubiquitous computing
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
17
Traffic characteristics
Relative Traffic
Multimedia
70 80 %
50 %
Voice
20 30 %
50 %
2000
2005
2010
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
18
Outline
What is 4G anyway?
Ways of defining 4G
My view: 4G Imperatives
Database issues in 4G
Pet peeves
Summary
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
19
Ways of defining 4G
Historically wireless generations have been defined in
terms of air interface technology, focusing on raw
bandwidth
As 3G demonstrates, good wireless access technology
and high raw bandwidth is no longer sufficient for
business success
Thus for 4G it seems more appropriate to use other
criteria
Technology view
Network operator view
User view
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
20
Technology view: Bandwidth

Speed bps
100 M
BT = Bluetooth
H2 = Hiperlan 2
PDC = Personal Digital Cellular
10 M
H2
802.11
PBCC
802.11b
5.5/11 Mb
802.11
1M
BT
WCDMA
EDGE
cdmaOne
GPRS 1X EV-DC, 3X
100 K
10 K
AMPS
1985
1G
cdma2000
PDC
1X
GSM
TDMA
cdmaOne
1990
2G
2.5G
2000
3G
2010
3.5G
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
4G
21
Alternative ways of classifying generations:

Other technology views
Layer 1 and Layer 2 wireless interface protocols
Analog -> Digital -> WCDMA
Cell sizes or types

Cells -> Microcells -> Picocells Hotspots
Network (Layer 3) wireless layer protocol

Layer 1&2 specific -> (proposed) Wireless ATM -> (proposed)
Wireless IP
System architecture
Loosely connected wireless islands -> Tightly integrated with PSTN ->
Tightly integrated with Internet
But this is really a bottom-up view

Wheres the money?
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
22
Alternative ways of classifying generations:

Network operator view
Cost: Spectral efficiency
bps/Hz
bps/Hz per cell
Cost: System efficiency

$ per bps/Hz
$ / (bps/Hz) m2
Revenue
ARPU
$ / MoU
$ / packet
$ / bit
Market share:
Penetration
ARPU*penetration
But wheres
the user in all this ?
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
23
Wireless generations: Users view

(1 of 2)
Attribute
1G
2G
3G
4G
Cost
Initial
High
Per-min Very high
Low
Low
Flexible
High
Affordable
Flexible
Installation
Inconvenient Quick or
instant
Instant
Instant;
DIY
Handset
Clunky,
heavy
Reasonable
for voice,
poor for
data
Good for
voice, poor
for data
Many,
appspecific
Battery life
Very Low
Low
Low
1 week
use
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
24
Wireless generations: Users view

(2 of 2)
Attribute
1G
2G
3G
4G
Voice quality Poor
Reasonable
Good
Excellent
Coverage
Poor
Reasonable
Good
Excellent
Roaming
None or
Inconvenient
Reasonable
Good for voice
Seamless
for all apps
Voice
services
Few
Basic telephony
Reasonable
Many; DIY
Data
None
Limited
Limited
Many
WWW
N/A
Poor
Limited
Convenient
Other user
issues
Decreasing
Security:
$/MoU but
w-spam,
Increasing
privacy, etc
total $/month
3/3/2003
Tradeoff
security/QoS
for price.
Low
Environment
Impact
Ravi Jain
25
Users view: This is just the beginning
Source:
Rainer Malaka, EML
ICDE 2001
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
26
ITU-R view
Mobility
High
IMT-2000
Enhanced
IMT-2000
New
Mobile
Access
.
Enhancement
New Nomadic / Local

Area Wireless Access
Low
1
10
100
1000
Peak Useful Data Rate (Mb/s)
Source: ITU-R
WP8F Vision
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
27
ITU-R view
Services and
applications
New Radio
Interface
Interface
download channel
Digital
Broadcast
IP based
Packet
based
Core Network
Cellular
2nd gen.
IMT-2000
Wireline
xDSL
WLAN
type
other
entities
Short Range
Connectivity
Source: ITU-R
WP8F Vision
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
28
Another view:
4G Imperatives
(1 of 4)
Innovative applications, not voice, will be the

key revenue generator
Programmability and Open APIs
while maintaining security, QoS, and bill-ability
Foster a 3rd-party app developer community

Build on work centered on fixed networks (Parlay, JAIN,
OSA)
The search for the killer app should never end

Any static portfolio of applications and services will
eventually become a commodity
Radical personalization and niche applications

Applications with a market size of 1
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
29
Another view:
4G Imperatives
(2 of 4)
True convergence with the Internet is critical

IP must be supported efficiently
Remove discontinuities at the wired/wireless
interface and the data/voice interface
The Internet must also evolve to support wireless
mobility and ubiquity efficiently
Example: Fundamental addressing issues dictate IPv6
Example: Fundamental inefficiencies in supporting mobility
must be removed
Example: Use of proxies vs the end-to-end argument must
be investigated critically
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
30
Another view:
4G Imperatives
(3 of 4)
Spectrum will remain the vital resource

Integrate with unlicensed spectrum
Allow creative technology and business models for
seamless inclusion of hotspots and multihop WLAN and
other technologies
Operator-owned and 3rd-party owned WLAN elements
Aggregator and community access models
Manage licensed spectrum efficiently

Consider dynamic and market-based mechanisms for ondemand spectrum allocation
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
31
Another view:
4G Imperatives
(4 of 4)
Allow rapid organic, bottom-up technology introduction

Flexibly integrate multiple air interface technologies
that coexist and provide synergy
Flexibly support multiple devices that coexist and
provide synergy
Usability and User Interfaces will remain key
New UI and devices will extend the application space (C.f. Palm PDA)
Needed: The Sony Walkman of 4G (with Tactile,

Speech, & other UI)
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
32
4G: An evolvable, programmable, multi-tier

multi-device network
Satellite Cellular
Wireless
LAN, Home
RF, etc
Bluetooth,
Infrared
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
33
4G:
The Basic Model
Voice
3rd-party
Native
Applications
Applications
OPEN API
Middleware
OPEN API
IP-Based Core Network
OPEN API
3G /
Native
Access
3G / 3rdparty
Access
Native
3rd-party
WLAN
WLAN
Hotspot
Hotspot
PAN,
CAN,
AAN
etc.
4G Access
Network
3/3/2003
Emerging
Access
Ravi Jain
34
Evolution towards 4G
3.5G: An All-IP network (i.e., with Wireless IP)
integrating all our current favorite IETF protocols (MIP,
FMIP, HMIP, CARD, PANA, etc )
4G: A programmable, flexible, application-oriented
Web-based architecture suitable for fundamentally
supporting
mobility
WWW
ubiquitous computing
semantics-aware applications
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
35
Database issues in 4G:

Evolution of database network architectures
Centralized
Distributed
Mobile wireless database access

Database access using a gizmo
Ad-hoc database networks

Database on the gizmo
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
36
Viability
Mobile DB market
Connect mobile workers to back-office enterprise servers
Vertical markets: Field service, transportation, retail, utilities, financial,
healthcare, government
Gartner: $70M in 2001, Up to ~$150M in 2006 (16% CAGR)
Need a clearer business case for further architecture evolution

Sensors to a DB: for niche vertical applications?
Pervasive and Ad-hoc networked databases?
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
37
Information management:
Location, location, location
The easiest way to add context to the user experience
Also maybe the easiest way to add value
Total location information management in a comprehensive multitier wireless network with seamless connectivity
Location estimation
Location (i.e. next-cell) prediction
Location privacy
Satellite Cellular
Wireless
LAN, Home
RF, etc
Bluetooth,
Infrared
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
38
Location management:
Its not just for gizmos anymore!
Mobile software will become an increasingly important aspect of
next generation networks and applications
Mobile agents, active networks, mobile code, programmable networks,
etc.
Mobile software to serve a (mobile) user

A user agent for personalized information retrieval, shopping, etc
Makes particular sense for information access over a wireless link
Jain and Anjum, IEEE WCNC, 2000
Mobile software to serve the network provider

Mobile software in the network to decrease the cost of personalized
information delivery to (mobile) users
Shah, Jain, Rajagopalan, Anjum, 2001
Managing the itineraries and location of mobile software modules

will be a major challenge
Security, cost, and efficiency implications
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
39
Database needs:
gizmos as blessing (and curse ...)
Where is my gizmo?
Databases for managing the location and mobility of distributed
communicating devices
Where is the user (or object) who has my (or this) gizmo?
Databases for using devices and connectivity to identify,
authenticate, and locate users -- as well as other devices
What can my gizmo do for me today?

Databases for dynamic service discovery, download, and
activation
Why cant my one gizmo do everything?

Integrating database facilities with other horizontal & vertical
applications
Why cant I have a special gizmo to do this one thing I need?

Application-specific micro-databases and database micro-clients
Why cant my gizmo and your gizmo figure things out

together?
Database transactions across ad-hoc networks
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
40
Outline

What is 4G anyway?
Pet peeves
Summary
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
41
A maturing industry
$0.60
$0.58 $0.57
$0.56
$0.53
$0.54
$0.50
$0.45
$0.43
$0.40
$0.35
$0.30
$0.28
$0.24
$0.20
$0.22
$0.20 $0.19
$0.18 $0.17
$0.10
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CTIA, 2000
New Challenges Require Creative Thinking
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
42
B24B
Provide useful, affordable Information
Technology services to the 4 billion people on
the planet earning less than $2000 per yr
A Grand Challenge
if there ever was one
Kalil, 2002
Prahalad & Hammond,
HBR, 2002
> $20K
$2 - $20K
< $2K
1B
2B
4B
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
43
Why?
Enlightened Self-Interest
(1 of 2)
New markets are the key to growth

Penetration and ARPU is saturating in the developed world
The economies of less developed countries are growing faster
than the developed world
Hence less headroom for ARPU
The population of less developed countries is growing faster

The penetration of IT in less developed countries is miniscule
although increasing rapidly at the top of the local pyramid
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
44
Why?
Enlightened Self-Interest
(2 of 2)
we renew our commitment to the principle of inclusion: everyone,

everywhere should be enabled to participate in and no one should
be excluded from the benefits of the global information society.
Okinawa Charter on the Global Informaton Society, G8 Summit in
Okinawa, Japan, 2000
In the long run, stability and prosperity everywhere is

interconnected
There will be no stability and prosperity in the world in the 21st
Century unless the problems of Africa are resolved.
Japanese PM Y. Mori, Jan 2001
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
45
Frequently Raised Objections (FRO)

The poor dont need PCs and broadband, they need
food, water, power
True, but only partially
We are not proposing PC and broadband, but IT that can help
them procure their basic needs
Example: Price discovery for agricultural produce
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
46
FRO:
The poor dont have money to buy IT
The poor are not a homogeneous mass: vast
differences between urban and rural
Dharavi, a shantytown in Mumbai (Bombay, India)
Buying a house or access to indoor running water is unrealistic
Penetration of TV: 85%, Pressure cooker: 75%, Mixer: 75%, Gas
stove: 56%
Large amount of aggregate purchasing power
Grameen Telecom village phone model

A single entrepreneurs cell phone is used by the entire village
Mean ARPU = $90 (~ twice of US)
Max ARPU = $1000
Consumers willing to spend 7% of their income on phone
service
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
47
FRO:
Goods must be cheap so no room for profit
True, but only partly
The Poverty Premium
Dharavi (shantytown) vs Warden Rd (upper-class suburb)
Water: 37X, Diarrhea medication: 10x, Rice: 1.2x
Phone call: 1.8x
Cost of delivering goods to urban poor can be low

Most live in densely populated cities
Roughly half of the Bottom of the Pyramid lives in 1300 cities
Many of the slums of these cities have a thriving, commercial,
entrepreneur-driven micro-economy
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
48
FRO:
The poor cannot use advanced technology
All new technology requires consumer awareness and
education
Building this, at least for the urban poor, can be less costly
than in developed countries
A much softer sell is necessary: the technology is obviously
needed
Grameen Telecom: Poor rural women in Bangladesh

easily learn to use GSM phones although may have
never made a phone call in their life
In Kenya, poor teenagers are successfully trained as
Web developers
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
49
Success metrics
Individual
Number of people with access to connectivity within walking distance
Cost equal to a cup of coffee a day
Societal
Number of people who cross the poverty line

Improved health (education, telemedicine, etc)
Better preparation and response to disasters
Free flow of information
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
50
Technical Challenges
(1 of 2)
User interfaces
Multi-lingual
Cross-cultural
Simpler and more intuitive
Less reliance on infrastructure

Ad-hoc and multi-hop networks
Better power usage and alternative power sources
Better support for resource and device sharing

Privacy and security
Immediate and itemized charging, billing, and payment
Personalization
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
51
Technical Challenges
(2 of 2)
Modular, streamlined products

Remove the unnecessary bells and whistles
Allow incremental upgrade and pay-only-for-what-you-use
Better software and system design
Biometric and non-linguistic security

Be open to Reverse Flow of Innovation
Incorporate diverse feedback loops into the product process
Examples: handcrank radios, MiniGSM
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
52
Summary
4G should be defined in terms of applications and services
Not purely by air interface protocol, backbone network or bandwidth
Coming: Gazillions of gizmos

Need for massive mobile data management
Rapid service introduction and heterogeneous technologies (air

interface, terminal device, backbone)
=> programmability and open APIs at all levels of the system
=> applications with market size of 1
Maturing industry
=> attend to environmental impacts (Jain & Wullert, Mobicom 02)
Plateau of revenue in current markets
=> B24B
3/3/2003
Ravi Jain
53

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4G Services, Architecture and Networks:

Speculation and Challenges

Copyright 2003 DoCoMo Communications Laboratories USA, Inc.

All Rights Reserved.

Introduction and Motivation

Coming: Gazillions of gizmos

Rapid service introduction and heterogeneous technologies (air

Cellular vs Internet penetration

Strong growth in subscribers

Source: CTIA, 2000

Usage high and rising in all countries

Average MOU Per Month

Source: CTIA, 2000

Availability of wireless data devices

Source: CTIA, 2000

Average Price Per Minute

Source: CTIA, 2000

Strong Growth in Subscribers, Minutes, Data BUT

Average Price Per Minute

Data Services Exploding

Usage high . . . And rising

Average MOU Per Month

Source: CTIA, 2000

Source: NTT DoCoMo Website, www.nttdocomo.com Investor Relations

Mobile Multimedia ( i-mode Access Breakdown*1)

Ring tone / Screens

i-mode compatible sites

1 billion gizmos by 200x

Two parallel, contradictory (or complementary) gizmo

Remote video monitoring using a

WLAN: Threat or Opportunity

Source: Pyramid research

Technology view: Bandwidth

Alternative ways of classifying generations:

Cell sizes or types

Network (Layer 3) wireless layer protocol

But this is really a bottom-up view

Alternative ways of classifying generations:

Cost: System efficiency

Wireless generations: Users view

Per-min Very high

Wireless generations: Users view

Voice quality Poor

Good for voice

Users view: This is just the beginning

New Nomadic / Local

Peak Useful Data Rate (Mb/s)

Innovative applications, not voice, will be the

Foster a 3rd-party app developer community

The search for the killer app should never end

Radical personalization and niche applications

True convergence with the Internet is critical

Spectrum will remain the vital resource

Manage licensed spectrum efficiently

Allow rapid organic, bottom-up technology introduction

Needed: The Sony Walkman of 4G (with Tactile,

4G: An evolvable, programmable, multi-tier

Database issues in 4G:

Mobile wireless database access

Ad-hoc database networks

Need a clearer business case for further architecture evolution

Mobile software to serve a (mobile) user

Mobile software to serve the network provider