INGENIERIA SISMORRESISTENTE

Fundamentos de Sismologa e Ingenieria Sismolgica

M.I. Jos Velsquez Vargas

Maestra en Ing. Sismorresistente e Ing. Sismolgica (Rose School, Italia)

Terremotos

Terremoto de Pisco (15/08/2007)

Terremoto de Hait (12/01/2010)

Terremoto de Chile (27/02/2010)

Terremoto de Japn (11/03/2011)

Fuente: Informe de terremotos ocurridos en el mundo - Colegio de Ingenieros del Per

 Qu es un terremoto?
Son vibraciones de la corteza terrestre, generadas por distintos fenmenos, como
la actividad volcnica, la cada de techos de cavernas subterrneas y hasta por
explosiones. Sin embargo, los sismos ms severos y ms importantes desde el
punto de vista de la ingeniera, son los de origen tectnico.
Estos se deben a los desplazamientos ms bruscos de las grandes placas en que
est subdividida dicha corteza.

Placas que conforman la

corteza terrestre

SISMICIDAD GL0BAL
Sismicidad global entre 1975-1999 con
terremotos de magnitude mayor a 5.5

95% de la energa liberada por terremotos se originan en regiones

estrechas alrededor de la Tierra: estas zona marcan los bordes de las
placas tectnicas
major eqs

Cinturn de Fuego del Pacfico

Est situado en las costas del ocano Pacfico y se caracteriza por concentrar
algunas de las zonas de subduccin ms importantes del mundo, lo que ocasiona
una intensa actividad ssmica y volcnica en las zonas que abarca.
Tiene 452 volcanes y concentra ms del 75 % de los volcanes activos e inactivos
del mundo. Alrededor del 90 % de los terremotos del mundo y el 80 % de los
terremotos ms grandes del mundo se producen a lo largo del Cinturn de
Fuego.

 Qu es un terremoto?
La presiones que se generan en la corteza por los flujos de magma desde el
interior de la tierra llegan a vencer la friccin que mantienen en contacto los
bordes de las placas y producen cadas de esfuerzo y liberacin de enormes
cantidades de energa almacenada en la roca. La energa se libera
principalmente en forma de ondas vibratorias que se propagan a grandes
distancias a travs de las rocas de la corteza.

LOS TERREMOTOS
MS GRANDES
DESDE 1900

major eqs

1936-1980
1915-1980
1895-1980
1843-1980
1787-1980
1626-1980
1501-1980
1300-1980
1000-1980
Scelta

10

7.0008, 0.18595

0.1

3.7

4.3

4.6

4.9

5.2

5.5

5.8

6.1

6.4

6.7

7.3

7.6

7.9

Magnitudo

ZS 63

Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

CLCULO DEL PELIGRO SSMICO

Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

ZS 63

1936-1980
1915-1980
1895-1980
1843-1980
1787-1980
1626-1980
1501-1980
1300-1980
1000-1980
Scelta

10

7.0008, 0.18595

0.1

3.7

4.3

4.6

4.9

5.2

5.5

5.8

6.1

Magnitudo

6.4

6.7

7.3

7.6

7.9

KOBE EARTHQUAKE OF JANUARY 17, 1995

Magnitude:
Duration:
Number of Injured:
Number of Deaths:
Epicenter:

6.9 (Mw)
20 Seconds
33,000
5,470

20 km underneath the island of Awaji

Across a strait from Kobe

Direct and Indirect Costs:

$200 Billion in damages (4% of Japan's GDP)
$100 Billion to restore basic functions
$50 Billion in losses due to economic dislocation and business interruption
$50 Billion in losses of private property
Structural Damage (Buildings):
144,032 Buildings destroyed by ground shaking
7,456 Buildings destroyed by fire
82,091 Collapsed buildings
86,043 Severely damaged buildings
Structural Damage (Highways/ Bridges/Ports):
All Kobe ports shut down to international shipping
Damage to containing loader piers
All access to Kobe via highway and railway blocked
Miscellaneous Facts:
Largest peak accelerations 0.8g to greater than 1g
300,000 People were left homeless

TERREMOTO DE PAKISTAN M7.6 DE 8 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005

MAPA DE PELIGRO SSMICO DE PAKISTAN

Movimiento de las placas

tectnicas

Zona de
divergencia

Zona de fallas
Zona de
convergencia

Zona de divergencia
Se generan cuando las placas van en direcciones opuestas, por lo tanto se
separan. Al separarse dejan el camino abierto para que ingrese el magma desde
el centro de la tierra. Como la mayora de las zonas de divergencia estn bajo la
superficie el magma al entrar en contacto con el agua se enfra y genera un
cuerpo slido, una roca.
En esta zona casi no se producen sismos de gran relevancia.

Zona de fallas
Se producen cuando las placas van en direcciones opuestas pero paralelamente,
es decir, se rozan de lado a lado. Producen sismos menores y actividad volcnica
casi nula.

Desde San Francisco (EE. UU.) hasta la pennsula de Baja California en Mxico,
es una zona de falla.

Zona de convergencia
Son zonas en donde dos placas tectnicas se dirigen al mismo lugar, por lo tanto
colisionan, dando lugar a las zonas de subduccin. La placa ms densa
comienza a penetrar debajo de la placa menos pesada, se produce entonces una
zona de contacto directo entre ambas placas que genera gran cantidad de sismos
y actividad volcnica. Generalmente son las placas ocenicas las que se hunden
bajo las placas continentales.

Sismos histricos

Terremoto en Chile el 27/02/2010, de

magnitud 8.1 en la escala de Richter

Sismos histricos

Terremoto y tsunami en Japn el 11/03/2011, de magnitud 8.9 en la

escala de Richter

Sismos histricos

Terremoto en Alaska el 28/03/1964, de magnitud 9 en la escala de Richter

Sismos histricos

Terremoto en Indonesia el 26/12/2004, de magnitud 9.1 en la escala de Richter

Sismos histricos

Megaterremoto registrado en Chile (Valdivia) el 22/05/1960, con una intensidad de 9.4 en la escala
de Richter. Es considerado el peor terremoto en la historia de la humanidad

Magnitud e Intensidad de un terremoto

Magnitud: La magnitud de un sismo corresponde a la energa liberada por la
rotura o el desplazamiento de rocas en el interior terrestre. Se mide mediante la escala
de Richter; es una escala objetiva porque se basa en los datos extrados del registro de
sismgrafos.

Intensidad: La intensidad de un sismo corresponde a los efectos producidos por

la accin de las ondas superficiales. Se puede medir mediante la escala MSK o
mediante la escala de Mercalli. Las dos son medidas subjetivas porque dependen de la
apreciacin de las personas

ESCALA RICHTER (Se expresa en nmeros rabes)

Representa la energa ssmica liberada en cada terremoto y se basa en el registro
sismogrfico.
Es una escala que crece en forma potencial o semilogartmica, de manera que cada punto
de aumento puede significar un aumento de energa diez o ms veces mayor. Una magnitud
4 no es el doble de 2, sino que 100 veces mayor.

ESCALA MERCALLI Se expresa en nmeros romanos.

Creada en 1902 por el sismlogo italiano Giusseppe Mercalli, no se basa en los
registros sismogrficos sino en el efecto o dao producido en las estructuras y en la
sensacin percibida por la gente. Para establecer la Intensidad se recurre a la
revisin de registros histricos, entrevistas a la gente, noticias de los diarios pblicos
y personales, etc. La Intensidad puede ser diferente en los diferentes sitios
reportados para un mismo terremoto (la Magnitud Richter, en cambio, es una sola) y
depender de:
a)La energa del terremoto,
b)La distancia de la falla donde se produjo el terremoto,
c)La forma como las ondas llegan al sitio en que se registra (oblicua, perpendicular,
etc,)
d)Las caractersticas geolgicas del material subyacente del sitio donde se registra la
Intensidad y, lo ms importante,
e)Cmo la poblacin sinti o dej registros del terremoto.

EFECTOS SSMICOS EN LOS EDIFICIOS

El movimiento ssmico del suelo se transmite a los edificios que se apoyen sobre ste. La
base del edificio tiende a seguir el movimiento del suelo, mientras que, por inercia, la masa
del edificio se opone a ser desplazada dinmicamente y a seguir el movimiento de su base.
Las fuerzas de inercia que se generan por la vibracin en los lugares donde se encuentran
las masas del edificio se transmiten a travs de la estructura por trayectorias que dependen
de la configuracin estructural. Estas fuerzas generan esfuerzos y deformaciones que
pueden poner en peligro la estabilidad de la construccin.

LA TIERRA Y SUS TERREMOTOS

Fallas
Terremotos
Fallas activadas por terremotos

FALLA
FRACTURA EN LA ROCA QUE
MUESTRA DESPLAZAMIENTO
RELATIVO

Falla por
deslizamiento:
el sentido prinicipal del
movimiento en el plano de
falla es horizontal

Falla por inmersin:

el sentido principal del
movimiento en el plano de
falla es vertical

Falla Emerson en California:

Produjo el terremoto de Landers

FALLAS POR INMERSIN

Dip-slip
Faulting that produces vertical displacements along the strike of the fault.
90 dip is vertical.
Two types of dip-slip faults: normal fault and reverse fault.
Normal fault: when the rock on that side of the fault hanging over
fracture (the hanging wall) plane slips downward.
Reverse fault: when the hanging wall moves upwards over the footwall.
A thrust fault is a special type of reverse fault in which the dip of the
fault is small (shallow). Subduction zones (e.g., Cascadia in the Pacific
North West) are the sites of many thrust earthquakes.

Normal

Reverse
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FALLAS POR INMERSIN

Thrust

1) Terms: Hanging wall and footwall

2) Normal faults
(a) Grabens
(b) Horsts
3) Reverse faults
a) low angle called Thrust faults
4) Oblique-slip faults

earth & earthquakes

Oblique

Blind thrust

28

DIP-SLIP
FAULTS (3)

earth & earthquakes

29

NORMAL FAULT: HANGING WALL

DOWN

Key
Bed

Source: John S. Shelton

earth & earthquakes

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NORMAL
FAULTS

earth & earthquakes

31

REVERSE FAULT
(CALLED THRUST FAULT IF SHALLOW ANGLE)
(Hanging wall Up)

Younger

earth & earthquakes

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REVERSE FAULTS

earth & earthquakes

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EARTHQUAKE
GENESIS
Posicin original
SIN DEFORMACIN

Almacenamiento de energa
DEFORMACIN PROGRESIVA

Ruptura con emisin de energa

: TERREMOTOR
DESPLAZAMIENTO PERMANENTE

TEORA DEL REBOTE ELSTICO

After the devastating 1906 San Francisco, California earthquake, a fault
trace was discovered that could be followed along the ground in a more or
less straight line for 270 miles. It was found that the Earth on one side of
the fault had slipped compared to the Earth on the other side of the fault by
up to 7 m.
Harry Fielding Reid postulated that the
forces causing earthquakes were not
close to the earthquake source but very
distant. The earthquake is, then, the
result of the elastic rebound of
previously stored elastic strain energy
in the rocks on either side of the fault.

QuickTime e un
decompressore
sono necessari per visualizzare quest'immagine.

earth & earthquakes

35

REBOTE
ELSTICO
Mechanism for earthquakes
Rocks on sides of fault are deformed by tectonic
forces
Rocks bend and store elastic energy
Frictional resistance holding the rocks together is
overcome by tectonic forces

Earthquake mechanism
Slip starts at the weakest point (the focus)
Earthquakes occur as the deformed rock springs
back to its original shape (elastic rebound)
The motion moves neighboring rocks
And so on

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36

RPLICAS
-The

change in stress that

follows a mainshock
creates smaller
earthquakes called
aftershocks
- The aftershocks
illuminate the fault
that ruptured in the
mainshock
Red dots show location of
aftershocks formed by 3
earthquakes in Missouri
and Tennessee in 1811/1812

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37

PROFUNDIDAD DE LOS TERREMOTOS

Earthquakes originate at depths ranging from 5 to nearly

700 kilometers.
Definite patterns exist:
shallow focus occur along mid ocean ridges;
deep earthquakes occur in Pacific landward of oceanic trenches;
central continent (intraplate) earthquakes of various causes:
some causes still uncertain.

Devastating earthquakes less than 60 kilometers

because cold rock more elastic, transmits waves better
than warmer rock below.

earth & earthquakes

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EARTHQUAKE DEPTH AND PLATE TECTONIC

SETTING
Weakest are the
divergent zone
earthquakes

Subduction Zones discovered by Benioff

earth & earthquakes

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TERREMOTOS EN ZONAS DE SUBDUCCIN

Recent example, 9.0 Christmas 2004 Earthquake and Tsunami, Sumatra

earth & earthquakes

40

SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE APRIL 18,

1906
Example of a strike-slip fault

Fence offset by the causative fault on ranch of

E.R. Strain, 1 1/2 miles north of Bolinas Lagoon,
looking northeast. The sheer offset is 8 1/2 feet;
the total displacement, shown partly by crooking
of fence, is 11 feet.

Fault trace 2 miles north of the Skinner Ranch

at Olema. View is north.
earth & earthquakes

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ALASKA EARTHQUAKE OF MARCH 27, 1964

Hanning Bay fault scarp on Montague Island,
looking northwest. Vertical displacement in
the foreground, in rock, is about 12 feet. The
maximum measured displacement of 14 feet
is at the beach ridge near the trees in the
background.

Example of a thrust fault

Hanning Bay fault on Montague

Island, looking southwest from the
bay. The fault trace on the ridge is
marked by active landslides.
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SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKE OF FEBRUARY 9,

1971
Example of a reverse fault
Compression of freeway

Trace of the main reverse fault where it

crosses Little Tujunga Road. By the time
this photograph was taken a dirt ramp at
right had been built up the scarp. The
scarp indicates more than 1-meter
reverse dip-slip movement. The fence
indicates little strike-slip displacement at
this place, which is near the last end of
the line of surface rupture.

earth & earthquakes

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INSTRUMENTAL
SEISMOLOGY

Seismic waves
Theory of the seismograph
Locating earthquakes
Magnitude
Fault plane solutions

instrumental seismology

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ORIGIN OF SEISMIC WAVES

A wave is a disturbance that transfers energy

through a medium.
Seismic waves are generated by many
different processes:

earthquakes,

volcanoes,
explosions (especially nuclear bombs),
wind,
planes (supersonic),
people,
vehicles.
instrumental seismology

45

MAGNITUDE (1)
Magnitude measures the strenght of the earthquake.
It is proportional to the elastic energy released by the quake.
It is measured on the basis of the wave amplitude on the seismogram considering
the epicentral distance.
The most utilized magnitudes in the last century were the following:
1) original magnitude for local shocks obtained using the standard
Wood-Anderson torsion seismometer indicated as ML, or MAW according to
the Karnik nomenclature (circular of 1976);
2) magnitude from body waves obtained using short or long period
instruments, for epicentral distance greater than 1800 km, called mB if it
is derived from the long period recording and mb if derived from the short
period one, respectively MPV and M according to the Karnik nomenclature
(circular of 1976);
3) magnitude from surface waves recorded by long period
seismometers, for epicentral distance greater than 2200 km, indicated as
MS, or MLH according to the Karnik nomenclature (circular of 1976).
There is also a magnitude calculated from the duration of the recording of a local
shock.

instrumental seismology

46

MAGNITUDE (2)
Kanamori (1977) has recently developed a standard magnitude scale that is
completely independent of the type of instrument. It is called the moment
magnitude, indicated with M or MW, and it comes from the seismic moment M0.
M0 = Ad
where is the shear strength (rigidity modulus) of the faulted rock (about 3.31010
N/m2), A is the area of the fault (i.e.: the product of its length and width), and d is
the average displacement on the fault (i.e.: the slip which is the length of the slip
vector of the rupture measured in the plane of the fault).
There is a standard way to convert a seismic moment to a magnitude (Hanks and
Kanamori, 1979). The equation is:

Mw

log M 0
10.7
1.5

with M0 in dynexcm.

instrumental seismology

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LOCAL MAGNITUDE
The concept of magnitude was introduced
by Richter (1935): the magnitude of any
shock is taken as the logarithm of the
maximum trace amplitude with which the
standard torsion seismometer would
register that shock at an epicentral
distance of 100 km.

QuickTime e un
decompressore
sono necessari per visualizzare quest'immagine.

Charles F. Richter (1900-1985)

ML logA logA0

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DURATION MAGNITUDE

There is also a magnitude calculated from the duration of the recording of a

local shock: the equation has to be derived empirically by comparison with
actual ML estimates. Duration magnitude is indicated with MD and the
general relation has the form:

MD a blog c
where is the duration of the signal, computed from the P-wave arrival to
the moment when the earthquake wave amplitude has the same amplitude
as the background noise, is the epicentral distance and a, b, and c are
by regression analysis. In practice, c is very small
parameters calculated
indicating a slight dependence of MD on distance.

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BODY-WAVE MAGNITUDE

The general formula recommended from

the IASPEI's Committee of Zurich 1967
is the following, given by Gutenberg in
1945:

A
m log max Q
T
where A is the maximum true amplitude
and T the period of the used wave, Q is
the Gutenberg-Richter's correction value
for hypocentral depth and distance and
is the station correction obtained by
statistical analysis of the resulting
systematic divergences.

instrumental seismology

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SURFACE-WAVE MAGNITUDE
The magnitude from surface waves can also be computed using different waves and
vertical or horizontal components. The most common is the one computed with the
waves of maximum amplitude having period from 10 to 30 seconds. The magnitude
expression, given by Karnik (1962) is:

A
M log max1.66logd 3.3
T

where A is the maximum true amplitude of the wave used, computed as the square root
of the sum of the squares of the two horizontal components, T is the period and d is the
epicentral distance in degrees.

instrumental seismology

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SUMMARY
ABOUT
MAGNITUDES

instrumental seismology

52

COMPARISON OF THE DIFFERENT

MAGNITUDES

Only Mw does not saturate

instrumental seismology

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PELIGRO SSMICO

DSHA
PSHA
Ingredients of
PSHA
Hazard maps
Ground motion
parameters and
maps

seismic hazard

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RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * EXPOSED VALUE

RISK = probability to observe a certain damage or loss of operativity

HAZARD = probability to observe a certain ground shaking
(acceleration, intensity, etc.)
in a fixed time period
VULNERABILITY = tendency of the study item (building, complex system, etc.)
to suffer damage or modifications

EXPOSED VALUE = (economic, social, etc.) quantification of the study item

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DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICALPROBABILISTIC MODELS

Determinism = the process IS KNOWN
and it is possible to write the equation
E.g.: gravity law s = 1/2 g*t2

Probabilism = the process IS NOT KNOWN

and it is possible to approximate it
from observations
E.g.: exit poll

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APPROACHES FOR SHA

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Probabilistic approaches

Deterministic approaches

Historical determinism
Reference ground motion
Historical probabilism
Seismotectonic probabilism

Detailed scenario

Non-Poissonian probabilism
Eq prediction
Muir Wood (1993)
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DETERMINISTIC APPROACH

Select a small number of individual

earthquake scenarios: M, R (Location) pairs
Compute the ground motion for each
scenario (typically use ground motion with
50% or 16% chance of being exceeded if the
selected scenario earthquake occurs
Select the largest ground motion from any of
the scenarios

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PROBABILISTIC APPROACH (1)

Source Characterization
Develop a comprehensive set of possible scenario
earthquakes: M, R (location)
Specify the rate at which each scenario earthquake (M, R)
occurs

Ground Motion Characterization

Develop a full range of possible ground motions for each
earthquake scenario (number of std dev above or below
the median)
Specify the probability of each ground motion for each
scenario

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PROBABILISTIC APPROACH (2)

Hazard Calculation
Rank scenarios (M,R, ) in order of decreasing severity of
shaking
Table of scenarios with ground motions and rates
Sum up rates of scenarios (hazard curve)

Select a ground motion for the design hazard level

Back off from worst case ground motion until the sum of the
rates of scenarios exceeding the ground motion is large
enough to warrant consideration (e.g. the design hazard
level)

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SEISMIC RISK APPLICATION IN THE

DETERMINISTIC-PROBABILISTIC
SPECTRUM

McGuire (2001)
seismic hazard

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EXAMPLES OF EARTHQUAKE
DECISIONS

McGuire (2001)

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DETERMINISTIC
APPROACHES
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Probabilistic approaches

Deterministic approaches

Historical determinism
Reference ground motion
Historical probabilism
Seismotectonic probabilism

Detailed scenario

Non-Poissonian probabilism
Eq prediction
Muir Wood (1993)
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STEPS OF THE DETERMINISTIC

APPROACH
1. Identification and characterization of all earthquake
sources capable of producing significant ground
motion at the site.
2. Selection of a source-to-site distance parameter for
each source zone. In most DSHAs, the shortest
distance between the source zone and the site
of interest is selected.
3. Selection of the controlling earthquake (i.e., the
earthquake that is expected to produce the
strongest level of shaking), generally expressed
in terms of some ground motion parameter, at
the site.
4. The hazard at the site is formally defined, usually in
terms of the ground motions produced at the site
by the controlling earthquake. Its characteristics
are usually described by one or more ground
motion parameters obtained from predictive
relationships.

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DETERMINISTIC APPROACH
SOURCE CHARACTERISATION
Focus = historical & instrumental seismicity
Mechanism = geology, instrumental seismicity
Magnitude = geology, instrumental seismicity

Reference ground motion

Empirical attenuation relations

PATH DESCRIPTION
Intensity attenuation = historical seismicity
acceleration attenuation = instrumental seismicity

SITE EFFECTS
Stratigraphy = geology, instrumental seismicity
Morphology = geology
seismic hazard

Detailed scenario
Modeling

65

PSHA AND DETERMINISTIC SCENARIO FOR A

SITE

Deterministic Scenario
Regional max mag = 6.4
(Kijko and Graham 1999 method)
PGA
0.23
0.30
0.30

attenuation relation for rock

Ambraseys et al. 1996
Sabetta & Pugliese 1987
Chiaruttini & Siro 1981

PSHA
1000-yr
PSHA return period PGA on rock
1000-yr return period PGA on rock
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GENERATIONS OF
PSHA
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Probabilistic Approaches

Deterministic Approaches
Reference Shaking
Detailed Scenario

Historical Determinism
Historical Probabilism
Seismotectonic Probabilism
Non-Poissonian Probabilism
Earthquake Prediction
(Muir-Wood, 1993)

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THE FIRST HAZARD MAP

(?)

Map of world earthquake

occurrence by Robert Mallet in 1854

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1ST GENERATION
HISTORICAL
DETERMINISM

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2ND GENERATION
HISTORICAL
PROBABILISM

Gumbel approach (1)

The Gumbel approach

Given Imax = max Xi, with i=1, , n and n large
Type 1: no upper limit of Xi

P[Imax i] FIm ax (i) exp[eiu]

Type 3: upper limit of Xi

P[Imax i] F Im ax (i) exp{[(w i)/(w u)]k}

Application
Putting

F X (x) i /(n 1)

Introducing the reduced variable

y i ln{ln[ F X (xi)]}

y i (xi u)

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2ND GENERATION HISTORICAL

PROBABILISM

Gumbel approach (2)

Example of the Gumbel approach

Given an eq catalogue, lets take the maximum annual (extreme)
magnitudes and order them x1, x2, , xn: xi xi+1 " i
lets assign the annual non exceedence probability:

FX (x) i /(n 1)

lets calculate the Gumbel reduced variable:

y i ln{ln[ FX (xi )]}

we obtain: yi (xi u)
lets compute and u by regression analysis:

lets compute the hazard estimates

(e.g.: extreme exceeded with probability p in T years:

y p,T u {ln[ ln(1 p)] lnT} /

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2ND GENERATION
HISTORICAL
PROBABILISM

The smoothed seismicity approach (1)

The smoothed seismicity approach

The hazard computation is based on the number ni of earthquakes
with magnitude greater than Mref in each cell i of a grid: this count
represents the maximum likelihood estimate of 10a for that cell.
The grid of ni values is then smoothed spatially by multiplying by a
Gaussian function with correlation distance c, obtaining :

ne

ij / c

2ij / c 2

The annual rate (u>u0) of exceeding ground motion u0 at a

specific site is determined from a sum over distance and magnitude
mu

(u u0)

1
i P[u u0 | di, mj ] fm(m)dm
T i m min

where

P[u u0

(from Frankel, 1995 and

Lapajne et al., 1997)

lnu0 lnu(di ,m j )
1

di, m j]

2
2

bln1010b( mm 0 )
fm (m)
110b(mu m 0 )
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2ND GENERATION
HISTORICAL
PROBABILISM

The smoothed seismicity approach (2)

Options:
the activity rate can be computed considering different seismicity models;
the b-value and Mmax can vary in space;
different attenuation relations can be used.

Seismicity models:
m0 = 3, low seismicity contributes to define hazard

(activity rates normalized over different Ts

according to the zone)
m0 = 5, only high seismicity contributes to define hazard
(activity rates normalized over different Ts
according to the zone)
seismic hazard

73

2ND GENERATION:
HISTORICAL
PROBABILISM

The smoothed seismicity approach (3)

Zonation models
in each zone b-value and Mmax are constant

Average PGA
with T=475 from
zonation models
seismic hazard

74

3RD GENERATION
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM

seismic hazard

The 4 steps
of PSHA

75

3RD GENERATION
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM

The Cornell (1968) approach (1)

The Cornell (1968) approach

The total probability theorem

f S (s) FS (s)/ s

where

FS (s) P[S s]

and
Mean annual rate
of exceedence

z
for all SZs

P[E]

PE | Sf (s)ds
s

is the PDF of S
is the CDF of S

Application

mu r

i1

mo r o

Attenuation model

i P(Z z | m,r) f i(m) f i (r)drdm

Mean annual rate
of occurrence

GR distribution

SZ geometry

If it is a Poisson process (stationary, independent, non-multiple events)

P Z z 1 e z T
T

T t /ln(1 P(ZT z))

where: T=return period;

t=period of analysis

seismic hazard

76

3RD GENERATION
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM

The Cornell (1968) approach (2)

Working hypotheses of the

Cornell (1968) approach
The eq magnitude is exponentially
distributed
The eq number in time forms a
Poisson process
The seismicity is spatially uniform
inside the seismic sources (faults,
areas, etc.)

(from Algermissen & Perkins, 1976)

seismic hazard

77

3RD GENERATION
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM

The Cornell (1968) approach (3)

c
Contributing information
a = geology, historical & instrumental
seismicity
b = historical & instrumental
seismicity
c = instrumental seismicity for PGA
historical seismicity for intensity
d = statistics
e = statistics

(from Algermissen & Perkins, 1976)

seismic hazard

78

3RD GENERATION
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM

The Cornell (1968) approach (4)

Gutenberg-Richter law

Uniformely distributed seismicity

The actual steps

in PSHA computation
A) Definition of SZs
B) Seismicity characterisation
Attenuation relation
C) Probability of ground motion
exceedence
D) Probability of ground motion
exceedence in T yrs

(from Algermissen & Perkins, 1976)

seismic hazard

Poisson distribution

79

SOURCE-TOSITE
DISTANCE

Arcs of circles with centers at the

site approximate in Seisrisk III
the area of the quadrilater.

Examples of different earthquake source geometries: a) short fault that can be

modelled as a point source; b) shallow fault that can be modelled as a linear
source; c) 3D source zone modelled as an area source

(from Kramer, 1996)

seismic hazard

80

FR(R)

Variations of source-to-site distance for different source zone geometries. The

shape of the PDF can be visualized by considering the relative portions of the
source zone that would fall between each of a series of circles (or spheres for
3D problems) with equal differences in radius

(b)

fL (l)dl fR (r )dr
dl
fR (r) fL (l)
dr
fL (l) l / Lf
2
l 2 r 2 rmin

fR (r)
Many single sources, see (a)

(from Kramer, 1996)

seismic hazard

r
2
Lf r 2 rmin

81

FM(M)
GUTENBERG - RICHTER
LAW

lognm a bm
m
n m 0e
n m 0e (m m 0 )
with m0 = threshold
magnitude
b ln10

0 10a

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law: a) meaning of

a and b parameters; b) application of GutenbergRichter law to worldwide seismicity data

FM (m) P[M m | M m0 ]

nm0 nm
nm0

1 e (mm 0 )

d
f M (m)
FM (m) e (mm 0 )
dm

seismic hazard

82

FM(M)
BOUNDED GUTENBERG RICHTER LAW

nm

exp m m0 exp mmax m0

1 exp mmax m0

1 e (mm 0 )
FM (m) P[M m | m0 M mmax ]
1 e (m max m 0 )
e (mm 0 )
f M (m)
1 e (m max m 0 )
where =exp(m0) is the rate of
occurrence of earthquakes
exceeding m0

seismic hazard

Bounded Gutenberg-Richter recurrence

laws for mo=4 and mmax=6, 7, and 8
constrained by constant seismicity rate
83

CHARACTERISTIC
EARTHQUAKE
Youngs & Coppersmith
developed a
generalized
magnitude-frequency
PDF that combined an
exponential magnitude
distribution at lower
magnitudes with a
uniform distribution in
the vicinity of the
characteristic
earthquake.
Comparison of recurrence laws from bounded Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic earthquake
models (from Youngs & Coppersmith, 1985).Inconsistency of mean annual rate of exceedance as
determined from seismicity data and geologic data (from Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984).
seismic hazard

84

SEISMIC HAZARD
CURVE
The individual components of the Eq are

PGA with 10% exceedance

probability over various exposure
times for 14 areas in North
America

complicated that the integrals cannot be

evaluated analitically: numerical integration is
required

P[E]

P E | Sf

(s)ds

mu r

P[Z z]

P(Z z | m,r) f i(m) f i (r)drdm

Exceedence
probability

mo r o

NS

mu r

Mean annual rate

i1
of exceedence

mo r o

i P(Z z | m,r) f i(m) f i (r)drdm

Magnitude and distance ranges are divided into segments

NS N M N R

z iP(Z z | m j ,rk ) f M (m j ) f R (rk )mr

i

i1 j1 k1
NS N M N R

z iP(Z z | m j ,rk )P[M m j ]P[R rk ]

Hazard curve

i1 j1 k1

P ZT z 1 e z T

Poisson model
seismic hazard

85

Hazard curves for 4 bridges in Veneto

ponti del Veneto

exceedence probability in 50 yrs

Fener
0.1

Botteon

Peron
0.01

Spresiano
0.001
0.1

PGA
seismic hazard

1
86