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Transition:
Opportunities and Risks
Stakeholders Consultation
September 18, 2013
Himawari Hotel, Phnom Penh
Outline
1. Background
2. Agricultural Transformation
3. Major Changes in Cambodia Agriculture over the past 10 Years
4. Drivers of Change
5. Opportunities and Risks
6. Diagnostic Study Objectives and Methodology
7. Key Questions for Todays Consultation
BACKGROUND
50%
9,000,000
45%
8,000,000
40%
7,000,000
35%
6,000,000
30%
5,000,000
25%
4,000,000
20%
3,000,000
15%
2,000,000
10%
1,000,000
5%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1994
1997
2000
2004
2007
2010
60
50
Processor
35%
40
30
Crop Collectors
45%
20
Input Suppliers
9%
10
0
Underweigth
Stunted (short)
2000
2005
2008
Machinery Sellers
6%
Wasted (thin)
2010
Processor
Input Suppliers
Machinery Sellers
Crop Collectors
Rice Sellers
The Good, .
Increasing connectivity
o
Agricultural GDP annual growth rate at 4.6% over 2001-2011, one of the
highest in the world
The Bad,
Unsustainable Practices
o
Questions
AGRICULTURAL
TRANSFORMATION
Agricultural Transformation
1. Agriculture becomes less important
As a share of Labor
As a share of GDP
HIGH
100%
% Agriculture
Labor Force
60%
40%
20%
Value of Agricultural
Output per Worker in
Agriculture
Total Value
80%
Total Value of
Agricultural
GDP
% Agriculture
in GDP
0%
Poor
Rich
LOW
Land consolidation
CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE
OVER PAST 10 YEARS
Productivity
2.
Rice Milling
3.
Labor
4.
Land
5.
Connectivity
External
1.
Food prices
2.
Cross-border trade
3.
New Entries
Internal Changes
1.
2.
Productivity improvements
Changes in cropping patterns during the wet season (early, medium, late)
Irrigation investment
Programs and projects (EU/IFC, ADB, AusAID, IFAD, AFD, USAID, FAO)
80%
250,000
70%
200,000
60%
50%
150,000
40%
100,000
30%
20%
50,000
10%
0%
Rice
Maize
Cassava
Sugarcane
2009
2010
2011
2012
30%
25%
Less Landless
20%
2004
15%
2011
10%
5%
%
Landless
0.01-0.50ha
0.51-1.00ha
1.01-1.50ha
1.51-2.00ha
> 2.00ha
4. Land
Food
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
External Changes
6.
7.
8.
Food Prices
Informal exports of paddy, cashew nuts, maize, sesame seeds, soya beans, cassava
Myanmar high potential for food supply and benefits from EBA
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Drivers of Change
Policy
Relatively liberal
laissez faire
Regional
integration and
access to regional
markets
Rice Policy
Investment
Public
expenditures on
agriculture,
irrigation, R&D,
and rural
development
Infrastructure
(transport)
Private sector
Technology
External
Factors
Opportunities
Risks
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
DIAGNOSTIC STUDY
OBJECTIVES AND
METHODOLOGY
Provide analytical inputs, improved information basis, and evidencebased recommendations for more competitive and sustainable farming
systems in Cambodia. Specifically:
(i)
Provide inputs for the preparation of the road map for the Ministry
of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) and Supreme National
Economic Council (SNEC) for the implementation of the long-term
strategic agriculture sector goals of the Cambodia Vision 2030 and
Rectangular Strategy; and
(ii)
Farm Enterprise
Models
Sector
Performance
Policy
Simulations
ROADMAP
Survey
Three Types of Respondents
1.
2.
3.
Individual Farmers
2.
3.
Individual Questionnaire
Four Commodities
1.
Rice
2.
Maize
3.
Cassava
4.
Vegetable
Commodity Growth
(2003-2012)
Key Changes
Rationale
Rice
Food security
Large income and employment
impact
High export potential
High impact on processing industry
Production
Commodities
(7.8%)
Yield (4.5%)
Maize
Production
(13.1%)
Yield (3.0%)
Adoption of hybrids
Cassava
Production
(41.7%)
Yield (6.4%)
Vegetables
Production
(12.8%)
Yield (7.8%)
Rapidly increasing
demand and imports
3 Zones
6 Provinces
12 Districts
12 Communes
Locations
of
the
Survey
Mekong
Kampong Cham
Memot
Zone (3)
Province (6)
Kandal
Takeo
Coastal
Tonle Sap
Kampot
Battambang
Bantey Meanchey
District (12)
Crop (4)
Commune (12)
Maize / Cassava
Dar / Memot
Srey Snathor
Rice
Sa Ang
Prek Ambel
Kandal Stoeng
Rice / Vegetable
Siem Reap
Batti
Rice / Vegetable
Champei
Tram Kok
Rice / Vegetable
Tram Kak
Chhouk
Rice / Vegetable
Meanchey / Trapeang
Phleang
Kampong Bay
Rice / Vegetable
Ek Phnom
Rice / Vegetable
Banan
Kanty 2 / Chheuteal
Malai
Maize / Cassava
Ou Sampou
Mongkol Borei
Rice
Rohat Touk
Key Questions
1.
2.
3.
4.
Changes
Drivers of
Change
Sustaining the
Change
Methodology
Internal
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.More favorable
business environment
1. Four commodities
(rice, cassava, maize,
vegetables)
1.Productivity
2.Rice Milling
3.Labor
4.Land
5.Connectivity
External
1.Food prices
2.Cross-border trade
3.New Entries
Policy
Investment
Technology
External Factors
2. Three types of
respondents (experts,
fgd, farmers)
3. Three regions
4.Service providers to
meet the need of
commercial farmers
5.Operationalization of
inclusive growth and
regional development
6.New strategic national
programmes
4. Six Provinces