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Ranges (Up till 11.

55am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0641-77

EURJPY

130.36-595

USDJPY

122.265-57

EURGBP

0.70555-685

GBPUSD

1.5077-1.5115

USDSGD

1.4058-1.4100

USDCHF
AUDUSD

1.0153-73
0.7253-76

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.68-74
1144.3-1147.9

NZDUSD

0.6553-81

USDTWD

32.48-549

USDCAD

1.3280-1.3310

USDCNH

6.4285-6.4288

AUDNZD

1.1050-82

XAU

1074.7-1080.6

Key Headlines

A Usd story, one similar to yesterday, testing


lower on profit taking. Even spot Gold advance
towards 1080.
My colleague Wilson posted the question to
some macro names about market under-pricing
risk of deterioration in this Russia/Turkey
situation and seems that market is not paying
much concern for now. I too agree simply
because there is no immediate retaliation from
Russia.
The Usd weakness is all linked to Thanksgiving
holidays.

FX Flows
Chillin Stevens in his speech last night, RBA Governor
Glenn Stevens said, "We've got Christmas. We should
just chill out, come back and see what the data says."
Although comments were made last night, got published
in the Aussie newspapers this morning. Late comers
reacted and pushed the AudUsd up to 0.7276. I hear
offers surrounding 0.7300 and suspect systematic stops
thereafter.
Our traders Jon and Sam still prefer to be long AudNzd
cross. We encountered some profit taking this morning
when AudUsd reached its peak. We should see buyers
low side of 1.10. Yield spreads point this cross to 1.1200.
EurUsd took out offers above 1.0670 and seems like
some more stacked up to 1.0685. There is a 1.0700
option expiry today NY cut worth about Eur1.7bn. Also a
Eur3bn worth at 1.0800.
UsdJpy printed low UsdJpy 122.27, selling are mostly
from offshore names. Keep an eye on this 122.23,
previous low from Nov 16. Some guys want to sell this on
break targeting 121.80 while some chatter of stealth bids
nearby. There is a 122.00 option expiry today worth
about $1.5bn NY cut.

Prices of oil futures were static but UsdCad was a touch


softer from where Toronto closed. Small buying from
Canadian real money and better bids low 1.32s.

Asians
Singapores Q3 finalised GDP grew higher than earlier
projection. Both quarterly and over the year numbers
rose 1.9% sending UsdSgd to low 1.4058, the 38.2%
Fibonacci level.
The only pair that defied gravity is UsdMyr. We believe
the interest came from profit taking and caused the pair
to stay firmly above 4.2000.

Who said what

MAS Loh: No change to MAS inflation forecast


MAS Loh: Downside growth risks within MAS
parameters
MAS Loh: MAS policy remains appropriate and
unchanged
MAS Loh: Sgd NEER comfortably within policy
US: Believes explosion of Russian jet took place
in Syrian airspace
BOJ: Marginal effects of QQE diminishing
BOJ: Sales tax hike may worsen underlying price
trend
BOJ: Japan economic growth to slow above
potential in 2017
BOJ Shirai: My outlook for economy activity
lower than BOJ median
BOJ Shirai: Stable 2% CPI should be considered
in long term
BOJ Shirai: Sustainable wage hike and spending,
key to 2% target
BOJ Shirai: Risks for price outlook in FY16,
tilted to downside in FY17
BOJ Shirai: Further monetary action not needed
at moment
Moodys: Japan GDP growth forecast at 0.51.5% in 2016
Japan Suga: Wants to cut corporate tax as soon
as possible

News & Data

Japan Oct PPI Services Y/Y at 0.5% from 0.6%


Singapore Q3 Final GDP Y/Y rose 1.9% from
1.4%
Singapore Q3 Final GDP SAAR Q/Q up 1.9%
from 0.1%
Australian Q3 Construction Work Done falls
3.6% from +1.6%
China Nov Westpac MNI Consumer Indicator
rose to 113.1 from 109.7

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

WSJ: Hedge Funds Stalk Battered Corner of


Bond World
Wall Street traders are circling a corner of the bond
world they say is taking an unwarranted beating in
anticipation of rising interest rates. They are betting on
closed-end funds, often-volatile structures that mostly
cobble together risky collections of bonds and often
employ leverage, or borrowed money, to try to boost
returns.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hedge-funds-stalkbattered-corner-of-bond-world-1448411261?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
AFR: Aussie dollar climbs as RBA chief cools on
rate cut
The Australian dollar jumped back towards one-month
highs overnight, shrugging off a new low in iron ore
prices after the RBA governor told economists they
should "chill out" on the prospects for another rate cut
next week. Reserve Bank of Australia's Glenn Stevens on
Tuesday evening told a gathering of business economists
that he "happened to agree with" the argument for
holding the cash rate target steady at 2 per cent when the
board next meets on December 1. "I'm more than
content to lower it if that actually helps, but is that the
best thing to do at any particular time?" Stevens said in
response to a question on the cash rate. "We've got
Christmas. We should just chill out, come back and see
what the data says."
http://www.afr.com/markets/derivatives/aussie-dollarclimbs-as-rba-chief-cools-on-rate-cut-20151124-gl76ad
William Poole in WSJ: Dont Blame the Fed for
Low Rates
Despite the lowest interest rates for a sustained period
since the 1930s, business investment has exhibited weak
growth. Lagging business investment has meant smaller
than usual demands in credit markets, and thus low
interest rates. The Obama administration has created
one disincentive after another. One is the failure to
pursue tax reform and the presidents insistence on
higher tax rates. Another is the constraint on investment
flowing from environmental activism. Cancellation of the
Keystone XL pipeline is a metaphor for the entire range
of environmental policies that inhibit growth. Businesses
cannot expand if they cannot obtain the required
permits. The Fed is responsible, however, for not
defending itself by explaining to Congress and the public
what is going on. The Fed is too afraid politically to
mention any details of its general position that it cannot
do the job on its own. Yes, there are headwinds, but
they are largely the doing of the administration.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-blame-the-fed-forlow-rates-1448405652?mod=wsj_nview_latest

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Telegraph: Elite


funds prepare for reflation and a bloodbath for
bonds
One by one, the giant investment funds are quietly
switching out of government bonds, the most overpriced
assets on the planet. The Norwegian Pension Fund, the
world's top sovereign wealth fund, is rotating a chunk of
its $860bn of assets into property in London, Paris,
Berlin, Milan, New York, San Francisco and now Tokyo
and East Asia. "Every real estate investment deal we do
is funded by sales of government bonds," says Yngve
Slyngstad, the chief executive.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/120148
21/Elite-funds-prepare-for-reflation-and-a-bloodbathfor-bonds.html
Telegraph: Europes banks still weighed down by
1 trillion of bad debts
Europes banks are barely increasing lending because
they are still weighed down by bad loans, the European
Banking Authority (EBA) said, warning that the burden
is greatest on the smallest lenders. A total of 1 trillion of
loans are non-performing, hampering efforts to get
banks to make new loans to households and businesses
that want to spend more or invest.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/bank
sandfinance/12014901/Europes-banks-still-weigheddown-by-1-trillion-of-bad-debts.html
Martin Wolf in FT: How South Africa can escape
the Belindia trap
Edmar Bacha, a Brazilian economist, applied the label
Belindia to his own country in the 1970s. Belindia
combines Belgium, a small and rich modern country,
with India, a large and poor one. Apartheid South Africa
was even more Belindia than Brazil: a small, white rich
country within a large, black, poor one. Whites lived
even better than in Belgium, since they could hire cheap
servants from their own India. South Africa was the
second most unequal economy in the world, after Brazil.
But the racial injustices that drove this inequality were
vastly more poisonous. This legacy of injustice has duly
shaped post-apartheid South Africa.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9a3a4716-91cd-11e5bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html#axzz3sGfrILe3

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.