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Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151

2nd International Seminar on Ocean and Coastal Engineering, Environment and Natural Disaster
Management, ISOCEEN 2014

Modelling of the COD, TSS, Phosphate and Nitrate Distribution Due to

the Sidoardjo Mud Flow into Porong River Estuary
Suntoyoa , Hasan Ikhwania, Muhammad Zikraa, Noverina Ayu Sukmasaria, Gita
Angraenia, Hitoshi Tanakab, Makoto Umedab, Suichi Kurec
a

Department of Ocean Engineering, Faculty of Marine Technology, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, 60111, Indonesia
b
Dept. Civil Eng., Tohoku University., 6-6-06 Aoba, Sendai 980-8579, Japan
c
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Aoba 468-1 Aoba-ku Sendai-shi Miyagi, 980-0845, Japan

Abstract
Mudflow disaster in Sidoarjo on May 29, 2006 have resulted in losses in various fields, whether social, economic, and ecological.
One of the efforts to control the mud is mostly channeled to Porong river towards the sea in the Madura Strait. Mouth of the river
is part of the coastal area that plays an important role in the economic, ecological, and also a region with a complex ecosystem. As
a result of the disposal of sludge to the Estuary of Porong river this leads to changes in water quality, it therefore need for water
quality modeling in order to identify it in accordance with the benchmarks of quality standards is allowed. A Hydrodynamic an d
water quality model with Mike 21 Hydrodynamics and Ecolab module 1 are used to quantity and to find out the spreading of COD,
TSS, phosphate, and nitrate. At high tide, currents in estuary Porong moving upstream, so the spread of water quality parameters
will be small around the estuary. At low tide conditions the flow moves in the opposite direction so that the distribution of water
quality parameters will be greater than the current at the river mouth. The condition of water quality parameters most significantly,
the worth of 34 mg / L for COD, 14.46 mg / L for nitrate, 30 mg / L for TSS, and a phosphate worth to 0.43 mg / L.

2015 The
The Authors.
Authors.Published
PublishedbybyElsevier
Elsevier
B.V.
2015
B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review
under responsibility of [ the Department of Ocean Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember ].
Peer-review under responsibilty of the Department of Ocean Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
Keywords: Mud flow, water quality, Porong river estuary.

Corresponding author. Tel.: +62-31-5928105; fax: +62-31-5928105

E-mail address: suntoyo@oe.its.ac.id

1878-5220 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibilty of the Department of Ocean Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
doi:10.1016/j.proeps.2015.07.095

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Suntoyo et al. / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151
1. Introduction
Mudflow disaster in Sidoarjo, Indonesia occurred on May 29, 2006. The mud volcano expel up to 150000 m3 of
mud per day that has now covered or submerge the land, rice fields, plantations and displacing approximately 30,000
residents2. The mud volcano began to be disposed to the Porong River through outlet located about 20 km from the
river upstream on November 2006. It is expected the water discharge of Porong River can drain off the mud volcano
into the deep sea in the Madura Straits. Such efforts will certainly affect the Porong River estuary, due to sea towards
the mud will pass through the estuary. River mouth is part of coastal areas which play an important role in the
economic, ecological and also an area with a complex ecosystem.
Many researchers have studied the sediment transport rate induced by wave motion that have a strongly non-linier
shape with respect to horizontal and vertical axis, e.g3,4,5. Recently, 6has conducted the comprehensive study related
the distribution of sediment transport and morphological change in rivers and Porong River estuary. It was shown that
the distribution of sediment generated not so much in the vicinity of the estuary and the coastal area near Porong River.
However, the disposal of mud volcano through the Porong estuary could be will lead to change in water quality in the
estuary Porong River. Where a decrease in water quality will degrade efficiency, effectiveness, productivity, and
carrying capacity of water resources, finally, it reduced the natural resources.
As previous research has been done regarding the Porong estuary conditions associated with indices of chlorophylla and total suspended solid (TSS)7. However, others key water quality parameters, such as chemical oxygen demand
(COD), phosphate and nitrate distribution was not examined, yet. How its spreads from the river to the estuary and out
to the sea, and its impact has not been studied in detail. Therefore , this study aims to determine and ensure the water
quality changes due to discharge sludge through Porong River Estuary whether it is safe or even exceed the benchmark
of quality standards is allowed . This study also want to know the pattern of spread of several water quality parameters,
such as COD, TSS, phosphate and nitrate by using Mike 21 software with Hydrodynamics and Ecolab module 1,8.
2. Theoretical Concept
1.1. Hydrodynamics
Hydrodynamic model as numerical modeling system for water surface modeling and current 2 dimensions in a one
layer fluidal assumed as vertically homogeneous. The equation from mass conservation and momentum which is
vertically integrated, also describe the current variation with water level fluctuation shown 9 as follows:

w] wp wq


wt wx wy

wd
wt

(1)

gp p 2  q 2
wp
w p2
w]
w pq
1 w

hW xx   w hW xy 


 wy h  gh wx 
wt
wx
wy
h
C 2 .h 2
U w wx

 : q  fVV x 

wq
w q2


wt
wy
h

U w wx

 pa 

(2)

gp p 2  q 2

w pq
w]
w
1 w

hW xy 

hW yy 
 wx h  gh wy 
wx
U w wy
C 2 .h 2

 : p  fVV y 

U w wxy

 pa 

(3)

Where: hx, y, t  = water depth (m); d x, y, t 

= water depth varied with time (m); ] x, y, t  = water surface
(m); p, qx, y, t  = flux density in direction of x and y (m3/s/m) = (uh,vh); (u,v) (depth averaged velocity in
direction of x and y); C x, y  = resistance coefficient Chezy (m /s); g = gravitation acceleration (m/s2); f V  =
wind friction factor; V, Vx, Vy (x,y,t) = wind velocity in direction of x and y (m/s); (x,y)= parameter of Coriolis
(s-1); Pa(x,y,t) = atmospheric pressure (kg/m/s2); w = specific gravity of water (kg/m3); x,y = space coordinates
(m); t= time variable (s) and xx, xy, yy = component of effective shear stress.

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Suntoyo et al. / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151
1.2. ECO Lab
The biological and chemical transformation processes affecting state variable in an ecosystem (also called the ECO
Lab equation) is specified for each ECO Lab state variable expressed by an ordinary differential equation, Pc given
by DHI, 2004 as follows:

(4)

In which, Pc = ECO Lab processes, c=the concentration of the ECO Lab state variable; n = number of processes
involved for a specific state variable and process = user specified expression containing argument such as
mathematical function, built in function, number, forcing, constants and state variable.
The dynamics of advective ECO Lab state variable can be expressed by a set transport equations, which in nonconservative form can be written as:

(5)

Let denote: u, v, w = flow velocity components; Dx, Dy, Dz = dispersion coefficients and Sc = sources and sinks
The transport equation can be rewriten as

(6)

where the term ADc represents the rate of change in concentration due to advection (transport based on
hydrodynamics), and dispersion including source and sinks. ADc is dependent on discretization and solved with a finite
volume technique in Mike 21/3 ECO Lab FM8. The ECO Lab numerical equation solver make an explicit time
integration of the above transport equations, when calculating the cocentrations to the next step performed with
different numerical solutions such as Euler, RK4 and RKQC.
2.

Model Setup

2.1. Modelling methodology

The study are, geographically located between 7.49 to 7.61 South latitude and 112.80 to 112.95 East longitude.
The water level was prescribed along the open boundary for the model for flow computation i.e. Northern, Southern
and Eastern boundary located in the Madura Strait, while the western boundary of the model is the Porong River with
water discharge (observed data from the Department of Public Work of Indonesia in the year of 2007 is 1.3 kg/m 3) as
the boundary condition. Fig. 1 shown the location of the study area and the bathymetrical data used in the present
modeling.
Hydrodynamics and ECO Lab modelling was done with the input parameter of modelling consists of bathymetry,
river flow discharge, wind speed and wind direction, as well as the five boundary conditions (Fig. 2) and the data of
water quality parameters. Model simulations was carried out for ten days (240 hours) with the time step interval =
3600s, number of time steps = 240s.
2.2. Data measurement and model validation.
Measurement of water quality data has been conducted for 4 points (see Fig. 1) in the study area, where the
measurement data are given in Table 1. The distribution of simulated water quality for 10 days at the location of point
4 where this data was used as a validation. From the results of modeling and measurement at point 4 are presented in
Table 2, which has a relatively small value difference. It could be concluded that the simulation result of the water
quality parameter was giving the good results with the measurement data. Because the results of this simulation was

Suntoyo et al. / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151
valid then the next can be used to predict the distribution of water quality from rivers, estuaries and coastal waters
area around the Porong River.

Fig. 1. Study area and bathymetrical data

Fig 2. Boundary condition of modelling

Table 1. Measurement data of water quality

Location Points COD

Nitrate (mg/L) Phosphate (mg/L) TSS (mg/L)

20.00

14.46

0.34

30.00

34.00

13.46

0.43

14.00

17.00

14.00

0.30

20.00

14.00

3.87

0.26

26.00

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Suntoyo et al. / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151
Table 2. Validation results of the water quality parameter for measurement data at point 4
Water quality Parameter

Measurement data (mg/L)

Modelling result (mg/L)

COD
Nitrate

14.00
3.87

13.41
3.45

Phosphate
TSS

0.26
26.00

0.10
25.58

While, the calibration of the hydrodynamics model was conducted with examining the water surface elevation from
measured data and the simulation results for the 4 points as shown in Fig. 1, presented in the root mean square error
(RMSE). It can be seen that the error occurred are less than 3 % as shown in Table 3.
Table 3. RMSE and error (%) of the water surface elevation
measured data and the simulation results
Location points

3.

RMSE

Error (%)

1
2

0.15
0.14

2.95
2.71

3
4

0.08
0.04

1.24
1.26

Results and Discussions

3.1. Hydrodynamics Simulation Results

Fig. 3. (a) Ebb current pattern; (b) Tide current pattern in the river and estuary of Porong

Fig. 3 depicts the surface currents distribution during ebb and tide with condition as shown on point (a) and (b)
in the upper part of Fig. 3. The distribution of ebb current (Fig. 3 (a)) is with the maximum speed of 0.82 m/s for the
simulation step of 54 occur in the river body, the current moving to the downstream direction or toward the river
mouth of Porong. During the high tide (Fig. 3(b)), the current enter the estuarine mouth with the maximum speed of
0.68 m/s for the simulation step of 71. At the highest tides, currents in the estuary Porong move toward upstream and

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Suntoyo et al. / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151
at the lowest tide currents moving in the opposite direction. The flow velocity of the river body from simulation results
is approximately 0.0 - 0.82 m/s, while in the estuary, the flow velocity is slightly smaller, at around 0.0 - 0.68 m/s.
3.2. The Spread Pattern of Water Quality Parameter Based on Measurement data and Numerical Modelling
Results

(a)

(b)

Fig. 4. The spread pattern of the COD distribution (a) during the tide condition, (b) during the ebb condition
(a)

(b)

Fig. 5. The spread pattern of the TSS distribution (a) during the tide condition, (b) during the ebb condition

(a)

Fig. 6. The spread pattern of the Phosphate distribution ((a)) dduring

i the
h tide
id condition,
di i (b) dduring
i the
h ebb
bb condition
di i

(b)

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Suntoyo et al. / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151
At the tide condition as shown in Fig. 4(a) appears that the distribution of COD is large enough in the river body
and smaller around the estuary. The maximum value of COD reached 28.5 mg/L which was marked with the red color
on the modeling results, while at the river mouth, the greatest value of COD is 19.5 mg/L with the bright green color.
When the ebb condition, the spreading of COD does not vary much with the tide condition. Fig. 4(b) shows the
maximum value of COD in the river body decreased to 27.0 mg / L, while in the river mouth, the value of COD only
slightly increased to 21.0 mg/L.
Figure 5(a) shows the distribution of the total suspended solid (TSS) in the tide condition that has the highest
value on the upstream of the river near the source of the Sidoardjo mud flow is 28 mg/L, considerable value is also
indicated in coastal waters allegedly caused long-shore and cross-shore sediment transport in this area with the highest
value of 26.4 mg/L. TSS value distribution in the river and estuaries waters have spread value is nearly equal in the
tide condition, but at the ebb condition the value of TSS decreased to 27.2 mg/L in the river water.

(b)

(a)

Fii 7.
7 The
Th
h spreadd pattern
tt
h Nitrate
Nit
i t di
t iib
b tii ((a)
a)) dduring
uring
i the
h tide
tid
ide condition,
condi
ditiion (b)
(b) during
duriing the
h ebb
bb condition
condi
ditiion
Fig.
off th
the
distribution
Fig. 6(a) and 6(b) shown the distribution of the phosphate for the tide and the ebb condition, it was indicated that
the value of phosphate in water bodies and estuaries are not much different or almost spread to the average value with
range 0.0 - 0.16 mg /L both at tide and the ebb condition.
Fig. 7 gave the information obtained from the numerical modelling results for the distribution of nitrate in which
the greatest value in the body of the river and the branch meeting point of the river mouth with a value of 11.2 mg/L.
The value of nitrate decreased in the estuary with the highest value of 9.6 mg/L. While, for the ebb condition, the
distribution of nitrate also has the same tendency as the current tidal conditions. However, at the ebb condition in the
estuary area undergoing expansion with the nitrates value of 9.6 mg / L.
3.3. Changes in Water Quality and Quality Standards for Porong River Estuary
Table 4. Water quality change analysis of Porong River Estuary
Water quality parameter

Maximum value of
the simulation
results (mg/L)

Quality Standard
(Water class III)
(mg/L)

COD

34.00

50.00

Nitrate

14.46

20.00

TSS

300.00

400.00

Phosphate

0.43

1.00

The simulation of the spread of water quality parameters was conducted for 10 days with the number of
simulation time step is 240 step. The resulting deployment is based on a four-point measurement data (Fig. 1) in the
field to facilitate the process of validation of the model. Results of the analysis of changes in water quality in

Suntoyo et al. / Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14 (2015) 144 151
estuaries Porong analyzed under the Government Regulation Number 82/2001 on the Management of Water Quality
and Water Pollution Control. The maximum value of the simulation results of water quality parameters compared to
the value of the quality standards provided in the regulation, in which the quality standard criteria included in the
Porong River estuary (Water Class III) under the Government Regulation Number 82/2001 are presented in Table 4
below. From Table 4, it can be seen that the quality of water in the Porong River Estuary after the disposal of the
mud still within safe criteria, because the results of the distribution of water quality parameters none of which
exceed the quality standards Porong River estuary (Water Class III).
4.

Conclusions
The modelling of the water quality distribution due to the Sidoardjo mud flow into Porong River Estuary has been
conducted and showed still within safe criteria, because the results of the water quality parameters none of which
exceed the quality standards of Porong River Estuary (Water Class III) under the Government Regulation Number
82/2001. With the maximum distribution value are 34.00 mg/L for COD, 14.46 mg/L for nitrate, 300.00 mg/L for
TSS, and 0.43 mg/L for phosphate, while the quality standard of Porong River Estuary (Water Class III) are 50 mg/L
for COD, 20.00 mg/L for nitrate, 400.00 mg/L for TSS, and 1.00 mg/L for phosphate, respectively.
Acknowledgements
The first author is grateful for the supported by Higher-Education, Ministry of Education and Culture RI, LPPMITS, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS) Surabaya, Indonesia and Tohoku University, Japan. This research
was partially supported by Grant of BOPTN-LPPM-ITS (No. 016458.17/ IT2.7/PN.01.00/2014) and by Grant of DIPA
No. 023.04.1.673453/2015. Authors thank to the Centre of Research and Development of Marine and Coastal
Resources, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries Republic of Indonesia for providing the facilities of Mike
21/3 model.

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