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Global economic overview

World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2015 update released by IMF on 6 October 2015 projects global growth for 2015
at 3.1%, 0.3% lower than in 2014 and 0.2% below the forecasts in the July 2015 update.
US economy
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady amid concerns about global economic growth, financial market
volatility, and sluggish inflation at home.
A survey of consumer confidence rose from a revised 101.1 in August to 103 in September, the second biggest rise
since the end of the Great Recession, bettered only by a slightly higher reading in January.
Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for September was 53,
the same as August, which was its lowest since October 2013.
The U.S. added 173,000 jobs in August, marking the smallest increase since March and the second smallest gain of
2015., while orders to US factories posted a modest gain of 0.4% in July compared with a 2.2% rise in June.
European economy
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its growth and inflation forecasts, warning of possible further trouble from
China and paving the way for an expansion of its already massive one-trillion-euro-plus asset-buying programme.
Asian economy
In China, the preliminary Caixin/Markit manufacturing index based on a survey of factory purchasing managers fell
to 47 in September, the lowest in six-and-a-half years. Earlier, data release showed that the final Caixin/Markit
manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) slipped to 47.3 in August, the lowest reading since March 2009
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 49.7 in August, the weakest since August
2012, down from 50 in July. This is the first time in six months that the official PMI has fallen below 50.
The producer-price index in China fell 5.9% in August, extending the slide to 42 straight months; consumer prices
increased 2%, the fastest in a year.

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Indian economic overview

Overall, the Indian rupee appreciated against the dollar in
September 2015.
The USDINR RBI reference rate closed September at
65.7418, as against the August close of 66.3062 (that is, mo-m change of -0.85%).
Exporters and banks stepped up dollar sales amid
aggressive policy measures coming from the RBI.
Rise in the Indian rupee was also helped by the U.S. Federal
Reserves decision to hold its interest rates, thus allowing
the RBI to ease its monetary policy later in the month.

RBI USDINR Refernce Rate

67.0000
66.7000
66.4000
66.1000
65.8000
65.5000
01 Sep

08 Sep

15 Sep

22 Sep

29 Sep

Source: RBI

On September 29, the RBI announced a steeper-than-expected cut in the policy repo rate under the liquidity
adjustment facility by 50 basis points, that is, from 7.25% to 6.75%.
Late in the month, data release showed that eight core industries, comprising nearly 38% of the weight of items
included in IIP, had an output growth of 2.6% in August 2015 over August 2014.
India's external debt at end-June increased 1.8% over end-March, due to rise in NRI deposits and commercial
borrowings. The external debtGDP ratio stood at 24% at end-June, increasing from 23.7% at end-March.
India's exports fell sharply and trade deficit widened to $12.47 billion in August 2015 from $10.66 billion in August
2014. Merchandise exports fell 20.66% to $21.26 billion in August 2015 over August 2014.
India's services exports rose 0.3% in July 2015 over July 2014, while services imports jumped 10%.
The all-India general CPI inflation was nearly flat 3.66% in August 2015 (new base 2012=100), compared with the
3.69% (revised) reading in July 2015.

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Bullion
Gold
The price of the MCX Gold October 2015 futures contract
dropped by 3.10% in September to close the month at
`25,856 per 10 grams (g).
The U.S. Fed resisted a rate hike in its September meet,
increasing expectations of a hike later in the year, given the
hawkish comments of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairperson
Janet Yellen which pulled down gold prices.
A firm U.S. dollar and a global rout in commodities also
weighed on yellow metal prices.

Source: MCX

Silver
MCX Silver December 2015 futures contract prices declined
by 2.22 percent in September, closing the month at `34,547
per kg.
In addition to factors affecting gold price movement, weak
global industrial demand, especially due to increasing
concerns over Chinese economic growth, kept silver prices
under pressure in September.

Source: MCX

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Base metals
Base metal prices moved down largely on concerns over Chinas
economic slowdown.
Copper
MCX Copper November 2015 futures contract prices slipped
by 1.73% in September to close the month at `342.70/kg.
Despite copper production cuts, notably by Glencore,
copper prices moved down in September on increasing
Chinese economy concerns.
The International Copper Study Groups estimates that
copper market had a surplus of 15,000 tonnes in the first 6
months of 2015 compared with a deficit of 576,000 tonnes a
year earlier, aided the decline in copper prices.
Nickel
MCX Nickel September 2015 futures contract prices
contracted by 0.76% in September to close the month at
`663.0/kg.
Weak demand on concerns over Chinese economic
slowdown, and International Nickel Study Groups release
that global nickel market surplus was 10,300 tonne in July as
against 7,800 tonne surplus (June), put pressure on prices.
At month-end, with international prices at around six-year
lows, closing of positions at the quarter-end and ahead of
long Chinese holidays, aided some recovery in prices.

Source: MCX

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Base metals
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium September 2015 futures contract prices
closed September at `102.45/kg., a monthly fall of 4.39%.
A spate of downbeat economic data releases, especially
from China, pushed aluminium prices down.
Rising refining capacity in China amidst decreasing rawmaterial costs leading to surge in alumina inventories over
the past few months kept pressure on aluminium prices.
Lead
MCX Lead September 2015 futures contract prices fell by
6.08% in September, with a month close at `108.90 per kg.
Along with other base metals, lead prices also moved down
on weak global demand, especially on concerns over a
slowing Chinese economy.
Zinc
MCX Zinc September 2015 futures contract prices moved
down by 10.02% in September, with a month close of
`109.15 per kg.
Zinc prices fell on rising global stockpiles amid increasing
concerns over the Chinese economy, the worlds largest
metal consumer.
Global zinc inventories in September were the highest since
February this year.

Source: MCX

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Energy
Crude oil
MCX Crude Oil futures prices declined by 7.77% in
September 2015 to close the month at `2,979 per barrel.
Signs of slowing global economic growth, abetted by
concerns about China fed to the worries on energy demand
outlook, and pushed oil prices down.
In addition, US Energy Information Administration and
Goldman Sachs lowered their oil price forecasts amidst
news that Saudi Arabia did not support the holding of an
emergency OPEC meet aimed at stopping the slide of crude
oil, added pressure on oil prices.

Source: MCX

The decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep rates

unchanged also raised worries about the U.S. economy, and
increased concerns about energy demand.
Natural gas
MCX Natural Gas futures prices slumped by 6.72% in
September 2015, closing the month at `166.7 per mmBtu.
Weather forecasts suggesting above-normal temperatures
for large parts of the U.S. in the first two weeks of October,
softened demand for natural gas, which is largely used in
gas-fired heating of electricity plants.
Moreover, rise in U.S. gas stocks added to the pressure on
natural gas prices.

Source: MCX

*Prices of crude oil and natural gas refer to the most active futures contracts on MCX

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Agriculture
Crude palm oil
MCX September CPO futures contract closed the month at
`415.90/10 kg, up 8.7% after import duty on edible oil was
increased. India raised import duty on crude edible oil from
7.5% to 12.5% and on refined edible oil from 15% to 20%.
El Nino strengthened concerns of palm oil output in South
East Asia. El Nino may exceed levels observed during 1997
98, Australias weather bureau predicts. Its effects may be
exacerbated by haze in parts of Indonesia and Malaysia,
which together supply 86% of the worlds palm oil.

Source: MCX

Festive demand was also seen lifting palm oil prices. The
festive season from September to November generally leads
to higher demand for food commodities.
Cotton
MCX October Cotton futures contract closed the month at
`15,780/ bale, down 3.4%.
India will have one of the largest closing stocks of cotton (90
lakh bales) in its history when the new season begins on
October 1, according to Cotton Association of India (CAI). It
estimates cotton output for 201516 at 377 lakh bales.
CAI projects cotton supplies for 201516 at 467.65 lakh
bales (including the carry forward stock of 90 lakh
bales);while it estimates the domestic consumption at 325
lakh bales for 201516.

Source: MCX

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Agriculture
Cardamom
MCX cardamom October 2015 futures contract fell by 3.7%
in September to close the month at `808.80/kg amid
sufficient stocks in the physical market.
Cardamom prices were down owing to improvement in
arrivals at auction centres and conducive weather which
augurs well for harvesting the new crop.
Export demand remains poor amid cheaper availability of
Guatemalan crop in the global markets.
Source: MCX

Mentha oil
MCX mentha oil September futures contract fell by 8.7% to
close at `891.60/kg.
Prices were down on high arrivals and low export demand,
which continued to remain poor. Concerns of fall in Chinese
demand owing to sharp fall in their equity markets, weighed
on prices. China is one of the biggest importers of Indian
mentha oil.
Sufficient stocks across mandis in the mentha-growing-belt
also weighed on prices.

Source: MCX

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2015

MCX top 10 commodities, September 2015

Average Daily Value
(` crore)
6,840.85
4,684.28
3,093.82
1,975.71
1,684.61
1,110.57
861.07
769.00
523.92
143.14

Commodity
CRUDE OIL
GOLD
SILVER
COPPER
ZINC
LEAD
NICKEL
NATURALGAS
ALUMINIUM
MENTHA OIL

Units for Volume and OI

Average Daily Volume

Thousand Barrels
Tonnes
Tonnes
Tonnes
Tonnes
Tonnes
Tonnes
Thousand MMBTU
Tonnes
Tonnes

Average Daily Open Interest

22,537.83
17.75
873.62
56,338.63
1,47,387.59
98,945.82
13,018.75
43,469.77
49,391.95
1,543.96

2,373.31
11.34
445.09
19,434.84
39,793.14
19,349.95
7,905.60
12,817.78
28,331.59
4,677.27

Aggregate MCX monthly turnover ` 4,82,515 crore | Average daily turnover ` 21,933 crore

Source: MCX

Note: Data refers to all variants of each commodity

Exchange-wise market share, September 2015

NCDEX
15.66%

NMCE
0.42%

MCX segment-wise market share, September 2015

100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%

MCX
83.92%
Source: Respective Exchanges' website

Agri

Bullion

Source: Respective Exchanges' website

Energy

Metal

Grand Total

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Commodities

Location

GOLD MINI
GOLD GUINEA
CARDAMOM
MENTHA OIL
SILVER
GOLD PETAL (MUMBAI)

Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad
Vandanmedu (Kerala)
Barabanki & Chandausi (UP)
Ahmedabad
Mumbai

Quantity

Unit

131.10
0.496
17.70
1,92,600.00
66,210.00
5.984

Kg
Kg
MT
Kg
Kg
Kg

Value
(` crore)
34.85
0.13
1.47
19.80
228.98
1.56

Source: MCX

Exchange deliverable warehouse stock position as on September 30, 2015

Commodity
Delivery Centres
Quantity
Unit
CARDAMOM
Vandanmedu (Kerala)
32.30
MT
MENTHAOIL
Barabanki & Chandausi (UP)
6,443.87
MT
GOLD
Ahmedabad
174.00
Kg
GOLD GUINEA
Ahmedabad & Mumbai
23.66
Kg
GOLD MINI
Ahmedabad & Mumbai
503.90
Kg
SILVER (30 KG)
Ahmedabad
11,356.09
Kg
SILVER (1 KG)
Delhi
287.00
Kg
Source: MCX

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Regulatory developments
SEBI Circulars / Regulations
October 01, 2015
Comprehensive risk management framework for national commodity derivatives exchanges
The circular from the SEBI provides details of the core of the risk management system of national commodity
derivatives exchanges. The core consists of liquid assets, different margins, liquid networth requirement, base
minimum capital, settlement guarantee fund, etc.. (CIR/CDMRD/DRMP/01/2015).
September 08, 2015
Ahead of the FMCSEBI merger on September 28, the SEBI notified certain amendment to its regulations. These were:
(i)

SECURITIES CONTRACTS (REGULATION) (STOCK EXCHANGES AND CLEARING CORPORATIONS) REGULATIONS, 2015.
A commodity derivatives exchange may continue with existing clearing and settlement up to three years

(ii) SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (STOCK BROKERS AND SUB-BROKERS) REGULATIONS, 2015 .
With revised regulations, the net worth for a self-clearing member at national commodity derivatives exchanges
should be `1 crore, and for a clearing member, `3 crore. This is besides the `50 lakh deposit for both.
(iii) SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (REGULATORY FEE ON STOCK EXCHANGES) REGULATIONS, 2015.
Fees payable by members dealing in commodity derivatives: `20/- per crore of the turnover.
MCX circulars
September 29, 2015
Registration of members under SEBI
All existing members of the exchange who satisfy the eligibility requirements of membership, shall be eligible to apply
for registration to the SEBI, within three months from September 28, 2015. Further, existing members must meet the
eligibility criteria as specified under Rule 8 of SCRR 1957 by September 28, 2016. (MCX/MEM/268/2015).

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Key developments in international markets, September 2015

The London Metal Exchange (LME) is in talks with the gold industry for launching precious metals derivatives, LME
Chief Executive Garry Jones said on September 10.
LME has decided to introduce scrap and rebar cash-settled contracts in November. The two contracts, LME Steel
Rebar and LME Steel Scrap, designed to complement the existing LME Steel Billet contract, are to be launched on
November 23.
LME plans to introduce limits on large positions to avoid market squeezes, initially on its new aluminium premium
contract, it said on September 15. The use of position limits may be expanded for other contracts if upcoming
legislation requires them, the exchange added.
CME Group announced the expansion of its base metals offering with the introduction of a new Aluminium European
Premium Duty-Unpaid (Metal Bulletin) futures contract from 21 September, 2015.
The CME Group and China Securities Index Co. Ltd announced that they have signed an index development and
product licensing agreement. Under this agreement, CME Group will grant CSI a licence to use certain CME Group
market data for developing, calculating, and disseminating commodity indexes.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange from September 22 has started charging a fee for closing nickel positions on the
same day they are openedpart of a series of measures by China to curb speculation in futures market. A fee has also
been introduced for same-day settlement of silver and bitumen futures, the exchange said.

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Key developments in international markets, September 2015

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced that ICE Futures U.S. would launch a World Cotton contract on November
2, 2015. The World Cotton contract would price delivery of multiple origins and allow delivery in multiple locations
around the world. The new contract would trade alongside ICEs benchmark Cotton No. 2 contract.
ICE has set November 17 as the new launch date for its Asian hub, that is, Singapore. It had originally aimed at
commencing trading from Singapore in March but pushed back the opening as new customers struggled to finish
the extensive regulatory paperwork.
Singapore Exchange (SGX) is utilizing the Platts 62.5% Iron Ore (Fe) China Spot Lump Premium assessment as the
settlement basis for its new swap and futures contracts launched on August 31.
European Energy Exchange (EEX) said on September 2 that it would launch a wind power futures contract in the first
quarter of 2016, allowing customers to hedge risks and speculate on an increasingly important part of the electricity
market. The contract could help both wind and conventional power plants to cope with the unpredictability of wind
production over a given month, said Tobias Paulun, EEX board member in charge of strategy.

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Awareness programmes
In order to educate various stakeholders of the commodity markets, MCX conducted 26 awareness programmes
across the country in September 2015.

Khurda (Odisha),
September 03

Beawar (Rajasthan),
September 07

Tinsukia (Assam),
September 09

Dehradun (Uttarakhand),
September 10

Durg (Chhattisgarh),
September 18

Shillong (Meghalaya),
September 24

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Farmers training programmes

During September 2015, 13 farmers training programmes were conducted by MCX, covering 383 farmers .

Village Dhamangaon (Maharashtra),

September 07

Village Purey Kharin (Uttar Pradesh),

September 17

Village Guthwada (Gujarat),

September 14

Branch Post Masters Training

Village Tharad (Gujarat),
September 23

Village Runi (Gujarat),

September 15

Village Jodhpar (Gujarat),

September 29

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Global economic calendar, November 2015

(All timings in IST)
Monday

2
07.15:
12.30:
15.00:
20.15:
20.30:

CN HSBC Final Mfg PMI

German Retail Sales
UK Mfg PMI
US Final Mfg PMI
US ISM Mfg PMI / Construction Spending
and ISM Mf prices

9
15.00:
15.30:
20.30:
20.30:

UK Mfg Prodn m/m

EU Economic Forecasts
UK NIESR GDP Estimate
US Labor Mkt conditions index

Tuesday

Wednesday

06.30: CN Non-Mfg PMI

20.30: US Factory Orders and IBD/TIPP
Economic Optimism
All Day US Total Vehicle Sales

07.15:
15.00:
18.45:
19.00:
20.30:
21.00:

10
05.20:
07.00:
14.30:
18.00:
19.00:
20.30:
23.31:

JP Current ac & Bank lending

CN CPI/PPI/ Trade Balance/ New Loans
UK Inflation Report Hearings
US NFIB Small Business Index
US Import Prices
US Whole sale Inventories
US 10-y Bond Auction

Thursday

Friday

12.30: German Factory Orders

15.30: EU Retail Sales
17.30: UK Official Bank Rate / MPC rate
statement and Asset Purchase Facility
19.00: US Unemp. Claims/Prelim Non-Farm
Productivity & Unit Labor costs
21.00: US Natural Gas Storage

12.30: German Industrial Prodn

15.00: UK Construction PMI
19.00: US Non-Farm Employment change/
Unemp rate and Avg Hourly Earnings m/m

11

12

13

05.20: JP Prelim GDP/ Core Machinery Orders/ PPI

11.00: CN Ind Prodn/ Fixed Asser Invt/ Retail Sales
16.00: UK BOE Gov Speaks and Inflation Report
21.00: US Crude Oil Inventory Report EIA/API
All Day US Holiday Veteran s Day

05.20:
15.00:
15.30:
19.00:
20.30:
21.00:

CN HSBC Services PMI

UK Services PMI
US ADP Non-Farm Emp Change
US Trade Balance
US ISM Non-Mfg PMI
US Crude Oil Inventory Report EIA/API

JP Tertiary Industry Activity

UK CPI/PPI/RPI/ HPI
EU Ind Prodn
US Unemployment Claims
US JOLTS job Openings
US Natural Gas Storage

00.30:
12.00:
19.00:
20.25:
20.30:

US Federal Budget Balance

German Prelim GDP
US Core Retail Sales and PPI
US Prelim UoM consumer Sentiment
US Business Inventories

16

17

18

19

20

15.30: EU Final CPI y/y

16.30: German Buba Monthly Report
19.00: US Empire State Mfg Index

15.00: UK Average Earnings Index/ Claimant

Count Change and Unemp.rate
15.30: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
19.00: US CPI m/m
19.45: US Capacity Utilization rate and Ind Prodn
20.30: US NAHB Housing Market Index

15.00: UK MPC Official Bank Rate votes/

Public Sector Borrowing and
MPC Asset Purchase Facility votes
19.00: US Building Permits and Housing starts
21.00: US Crude Oil Inventory Report EIA/API

00.30: US FOMC Meeting Minutes

05.20: JP Monetary Policy Statement and
BOJ Press Conference
15.00: UK Retail Sales
19.00: US Unemployment Claims
20.30: US Philly Fed Mfg Index and
Mortgage Delinquencies
21.00: US Natural Gas Storage

07.15:
14.30:
20.15:
20.30:

23

24

25

26

27

15.45: US Targeted LTRO

20.15: US Flash Services PMI
20.30: US Existing Home Sales

14.30:
19.00:
19.30:
20.30:

12.30: GfK Ger. Consumer Climate

15.00: UK 2nd Estimate GDP/BBA Mortgage
approvals and Prelim Buss Investments
16.30: UK CBI Realized Sales
19.00: US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m/ Core
PCE Price Index/ Personal Spending
20.30: US New Home Sales
21.00: US Crude Oil Inventory Report EIA/API

05.20: JP Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/

Prelim Ind Prodn and Retail Sales
All Day German Prelim CPI
15.00: UK Net Lending to Indvls
16.00: UK BOE Financial Stability Report
19.00: US Unemp.Claims
US Bank Holiday Thanks Giving Day

05.20: JP Household Spending and Tokyo Core

CPI/ Retail Sales/ Ind Prodn
12.30: German Import Prices
20.25: US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

30
20.15: US Chicago PMI
20.30: US Pending Home Sales m/m

German Ifo Business Climate

US Prelim GDP q/q
US S&P/CS composite-20 HPI
US CB Consumer Confidence and Richm
ond Mfg Index

CN HSBC Mfg PMI

EU Flash Mfg and Services PMI
US Flash Mfg PMI
U S CB Leading Index

**Timings in IST Disclaimer: Every effort has been made in compiling the data/ information to ensure the high quality and accuracy of the content of the MCX Global Economic Calendar. Under any
circumstances, MCX shall not be liable to any user for intended/accidental errors. Users may carry out due diligence before using any data/information herein, MCX will not be responsible for any
discrepancies/disputes arising out of such use. The calendar may also be subject to change without any previous notice.

Commodity Connect is not intended as professional counsel or investment advice, and is not to be used as such. While the exchange has made every effort to assure the
accuracy, correctness and reliability of the information contained herein, any affirmation of fact in the Commodity Connect shall not create an express or implied warranty that
it is correct. Commodity Connect is made available on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claims, demands or cause of action. MCX shall
also not be liable for any damage or loss of any kind, howsoever caused as a result (direct or indirect) of the use of the information or data in this Commodity Connect.
MCX 2015. All rights reserved.

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