, August 13, 2015

Afghanistan: Ghost War, Ghost Peace

Dr Mohammad Taqi
The Afghan people are getting angrier rather than feeling terrorised. Influential
voices within Afghanistan are calling for their government to take the issue of Taliban
sanctuaries east of the Durand Line to the United Nations
Over the past several days, Kabul city experienced one of the worst waves of
terrorist attacks during the present Afghan conflict. It started with a massive truck
bombing in the small hours of Friday morning in the Shah Shaheed district. The
apparent target was an Afghan intelligence complex but 15 civilians perished and
dozens mostly women and children were injured in the attack, which reportedly
destroyed almost a full city block. Later during the day a suicide bomber killed 29
cadets right outside the police academy when he blew himself up. The third attack of
the day targeted the US special forces headquarters killing one US personnel and
eight Afghans. And then at noon, on Monday, another suicide car bomber struck
outside the Hamid Karzai International Airport, killing five people and injuring over a
dozen. The string of attacks had the Haqqani terrorist network written virtually all
over it.
With the Afghan Taliban just having chosen their new emir (head), Mullah
Mohammed Akhtar Mansoor, and deputy emir, Sirajuddin Haqqani, on Pakistani soil
by most accounts, it was inevitable that Afghan President Dr Ashraf Ghani would
lambast Pakistan for failing to put a leash on assorted Taliban groups. Within hours
of the airport attack Dr Ashraf Ghani held a press conference laying the blame
squarely on Pakistans doorsteps. Dr Ghani, who is recuperating from foot surgery,
spoke while sitting down with his war cabinet lined up behind him. He spoke in both
the Afghan national languages Dari Persian and Pashto and minced no words
about whom and from where death is raining on the Afghans. Dr Ghanis scathing
critique of Pakistans policy vis--vis the Taliban was a clear departure from his 10month-long diplomatic overtures to Pakistans civil and military leadership. He spoke
resolutely but came across as someone feeling betrayed and profoundly incensed.
The Afghan president said: Pakistan still remains a venue and ground for gatherings
from which mercenaries send us messages of war. The incidents of the past two
months in general and the recent days in particular show that suicide training camps
and bomb making facilities used to target and murder our innocent people still
operate, as in the past, in Pakistan.
Dr Ashraf Ghanis speech and press conference indicate that after fighting the war
against the ghost of Mullah Omar he is not willing to accept the ghost peace
presented to him a la the Murree talks. No doubt, in diplomacy one holds ones cards
close to their chest till an opportune moment but outright deceit like conducting war
and peace in the name of a dead man was simply not going to fly. Following that
treachery with a barrage of attacks inside the Afghan capital seems to have just
compounded Kabuls deep mistrust of both Pakistans motives and its ability to
deliver on the pledges it has made. The Pakistani leaderships mantra that it is
desirous of an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process comes across as an
abject farce when Taliban leaders live and die both politically and physically on
its soil. Some Pakistani analysts and newspaper editorials seem to make light of Dr
Ashraf Ghanis blistering remarks and have dismissed them as something he had to
do for domestic consumption. These pundits, unfortunately, underestimate the

Afghan anger at the murder and mayhem unleashed on them and Dr Ghanis anger
at being double-crossed. Unless there is an immediate and verifiable change in
Pakistans policy of allowing sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban any change in Dr
Ghanis new geopolitical posture is extremely unlikely.
The Afghan people, parliament and intelligentsia have thrown their full weight behind
Dr Ashraf Ghani while that countrys chief executive, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, has
reiterated his presidents sentiments in a separate interview saying that he has seen
no evidence of Pakistan changing its tack. The problem is that the one-trick jihadist
pony that Pakistan backs is simply not capable of changing into a political outfit,
which could compete even in a primordial, collective decision-making process like a
tribal jirga let alone in an electoral democracy. The Kabul bombings indicate that the
new Taliban leadership is trying to remain relevant and assert itself against its
jihadist rivals as well as the Afghan people and the government through the only
means they know: violent terrorism. Both the Taliban and their patrons seem
oblivious of the diminishing political returns from these gruesome assaults. The
Afghan people are getting angrier rather than feeling terrorised. Influential voices
within Afghanistan are calling for their government to take the issue of Taliban
sanctuaries east of the Durand Line to the United Nations. And such robust
international diplomacy is what it may eventually boil down to.
Afghanistan does not have a military option and using any tit-for-tat proxies is a
patently bad idea that would gain little but cause loss of the moral high ground. Dr
Ashraf Ghani built a case for peace through what he described the concentric circles
engaging regional and then international powers. He may just have to use the same
template to internationalise the Taliban sanctuaries issue. China, India, Iran, Russia
and the Central Asian countries have no desire whatsoever for the Taliban or any
other jihadist outfit upending the democratic order in Kabul. Pakistans diplomatic
position is likely to become untenable even with China if the former cannot or does
not restrain the Taliban. The USs functionaries, especially its Department of State,
cannot play dumb endlessly. The State Departments spokespersons remarks, in the
wake of the Kabul attacks on how it is in the urgent interest of both countries to
eliminate safe havens and to reduce the operational capacity of the Taliban on both
sides of the border are patently disingenuous and create a false equivalence.
Major questions have arisen about the US knowing about but playing down Mullah
Omars presence and then death in Pakistan. The US letting a terrorist outfit keep
the appearance of a unified force under a figurehead, who was suspected dead, was
truly a weird way of prosecuting the war against the Taliban while the latter attacked
and killed US troops. The State Department can choose to eat out of the palm of
Pakistans hand but it certainly cannot tell Afghans to do that. The Murree peace
process that the US diplomats sat through was a dud; the ghost of Mullah Omar
could make war but certainly cannot make peace. To stop the cycle of ghost war and
ghost peace imposed upon Afghanistan the international community, including the
US, will have to hold Pakistans feet to the diplomatic fire. Dr Ashraf Ghani has an
uphill task ahead but his straight talk indicates he is not only gearing up for it but that
speech may also be his roadmap.
The writer can be reached at mazdaki@me.com and he tweets @mazdaki