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Ranges (Up till 11.

28am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0570-97

EURJPY

129.82-130.10

USDJPY

122.70-87

EURGBP

0.70365-43

GBPUSD

1.5015-49

USDSGD

1.4121-55

USDCHF
AUDUSD

1.0296-1.0314
0.7171-99

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.87-925
1155.0-1161.0

NZDUSD

0.6515-40

USDTWD

32.55-80

USDCAD

1.3360-86

USDCNH

6.4230-6.4613

AUDNZD

1.0992-1.1018

XAU

1053.7-1058.7

Key Headlines

Slow start to a hyper week all watching Super


Mario on Thursday.

The only currency pair moving is the USDCNH.


From 6.4600 to 6.4279 then back to 6.44 and
then to 6.4250 again.

FX Flows
It is an extremely slow start to a hyper week. Currency
markets were mostly unchanged since the official
opening at 7am Auckland.
Nov 30 month-end hedging could see buying of Euro
versus Usd, Usd demand against Gbp, Cad and Aud.
EurUsd opened at 1.0589 and heard some macro names
added short Euros ahead of ECB on Thursday. Better
offers are reported atop 1.0600 with stop buy orders
building up thereafter 1.0650. Tokyo banks were seen
selling EurJpy pushing the cross below 130.00 and
Euro to 1.05725. We found bids at 1.0570, scattered in ecommerce platforms. Buy orders are planted under
1.0550 and decent option expiring Dec 2; Eur3bn
notional at 1.0600 and Eur4.5bn at 1.0500.
It is ECB time. Sunday Times Kathryn Cooper wrote
Mario Draghi is going to pump at least Eur600bn into
Eurozone. Article in FT offers the following options
extension deadline past Sept 2016; ECB could beef up
QE by buying more bonds now; buying different asset
classes; as most expecting deposit rate but by 10bp;
finally, bolstering so-called forward guidance.
UsdJpy opened 122.80; month-end and year-end Usd
funding activities will dominate the session. General
chatter offers ahead of 123.00 and buy orders into
122.40s. EurJpy was sold after Tokyo open; some said it
was corporate interest but I suspect there are stops
beneath 129.55.
Not much to pen on Aud and Kiwi. Earlier in the
morning, New Zealand released the Oct home building

approvals jumped 5.1% versus last months fall of 5.7%.


FX didnt barge. It was only into late morning that we
saw Nzd firming against the Aud; taking cross below
1.1000.
UsdCad moved higher amid Usd sentiment but looks like
offers are hidden above 1.3385. We found mostly, US
names on the offer.

Asians
The big move in Asia was in the USDCNH. The CNY
fixed at 6.3962 inspired the USDCNH move to 6.4613. It
then collapse down to 6.4279. There was no link to
intervention.
Our traders suspected that spreads of CNH versus CNY
had widened to near +600 this morning and when
onshore USDCNY backed away from 6.3980, market got
skittish and sold USDCNH. Onshore bounced and so did
the offshore, back to 6.44-handle but offshore Chinese
banks sold Usd back to 6.42-handle.

Who said what

BOJ Kuroda: Japan CPI rise likely to accelerate


towards 2%
BOJ Kuroda: Can reach 2% CPI target around
H2 of 2016
BOJ Kuroda: Risk of weaker emerging market
hurting capex not big
BOJ Kuroda: Wants to see balanced CPI rise
with wage growth
BOJ Kuroda: it doesnt mean BOJ change easing
pace with wages
BOJ Kuroda: Wont hesitate to act if needed
BOJ Kuroda: BOJ is committed to 2% CPI at
earliest possible time
BOJ Kuroda: Weak Jpy is good for exports,
profits, can help stocks
BOJ Kuroda: Weak Jpy can boost import costs,
pressure households
BOJ Kuroda: FX intervention is only used in
special circumstances

News & Data

South
Korea
Dec
Business
Survey
Manufacturing at 69 from 70
South Korea Dec Business Survey NonManufacturing at 71 from 73
New Zealand Oct Building Permits M/M
improved to +5.1% from -5.7%
South Korea Oct Industrial Production M/M fell
1.4% from +1.9% (est. -0.9%)
South Korea Oct Industrial Production Y/Y rose
1.54% from +2.4% (est. +2.2%)

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Australia Nov TD Sec Inflation M/M up 0.1%


from flat
Australia Nov TD Sec Inflation Y/Y unchanged
at 1.8%
Japan Oct Prelim Industrial Production M/M
rose 1.4% from +1.1% (est. +1.8%)
Japan Oct Prelim Industrial Production Y/Y fell
1.4% from -0.8%
Japan Oct Retail Trade Y/Y rose 1.8% versus
prev. 0.2%
Japan Oct Retail Sales M/M rose 1.1% from 0.7%

FT: Deutsche Bank created complex tax


avoidance strategies
Deutsche Bank has been devising complex international
tax avoidance strategies for some of its largest corporate
clients, even as G20 governments and the OECD attempt
to close loopholes involving moving money to other
jurisdictions. According to documents seen by the
Financial Times and people familiar with the process,
tax-saving plans were pitched this year to several
Deutsche Bank clients with offices in Brazil, including
brewer AB InBev and the commodities groups Archer
Daniels Midland, Bunge and Cargill.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/41ac430e-93c3-11e5bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html#axzz3suQ3lojr
FT: Private equity looks to tap hedge fund
growth
Private equity groups and others are increasingly turning
to hedge funds as they seek to capitalise on the maturing
industrys rich fees and growth. Credit Suisse is
restarting a business that buys minority stakes in hedge
fund management businesses, and Goldman Sachs is
near to closing its second fund to do the same, both in
private equity-style vehicles. The firms are not investing
in individual hedge funds, but sharing in the fees they
charge clients less than the traditional average fee of 2
per cent of assets plus a 20 per cent cut of profits, but
still typically more than 1 per cent of assets and 15 per
cent of profits.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1176aa56-952d-11e5ac15-0f7f7945adba.html#axzz3suQ3lojr
FT: Life sector warned over pensions premier
league
The UKs life company sector is headed for massive
consolidation over the next five years with several wellknown names expected to exit or fold and a premier
league of pensions providers emerging to control
550bn in assets, warns a new report. The predictions
in the first independent review of the pensions market
since the governments overhaul of the sector in April
could prove uncomfortable reading for the industry and
painful for pension savers.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f37bc45e-92bc-11e594e6-c5413829caa5.html?ftcamp=published_links
%2Frss%2Fcompanies%2Ffeed%2F
%2Fproduct#axzz3suQ3lojr
WSJ: OPEC Is Ready to Rumble Over Saudi
Output
Pressure is building on Saudi Arabia to rein in its oil
output after a year of pumping full tilt, setting up the
most contentious OPEC meeting in years. OPEC
members including Iran have decided the effort was a
failure and are preparing to press Saudi Arabia directly
to pull back on production at the groups meeting this
week.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-is-ready-to-rumbleover-saudi-output-1448830360?mod=wsj_nview_latest
FT: ECB ponders options as it looks to inject
fresh economic stimulus
European Central Bank looks set to inject fresh stimulus
into the eurozones economy on Thursday after its
president, Mario Draghi, said he and his policymakers
would do what we must to return inflation from its
current level of 0.1 per cent to their target of less than 2
per cent as quickly as possible. Mr Draghis hints at
action have been so strong that doing nothing would risk
huge disappointment in financial markets.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dbe3969c-9527-11e5ac15-0f7f7945adba.html#axzz3suQ3lojr
WSJ: IMF Move Would Put Chinas Yuan Under
Spotlight
The International Monetary Fund is on the verge of
labeling Chinas yuan a reserve currency. Now Chinese
officials will have to prove they can treat it like one. The
IMF is widely expected on Monday to say that next year
it will add the yuan to the elite basket of currencies that
comprise its lending reserves, a status enjoyed only by
the U.S. dollar, the euro, the British pound and the
Japanese yen. The inclusion would represent recognition
that the yuans status is rising along with Chinas place in
global finance.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-expected-to-namechinas-yuan-a-reserve-currency-1448769634
AFR: Bumper week as RBA and GDP guide
sentiment
The Reserve Bank of Australia's last interest rate
decision for the year and third-quarter national accounts
head the list of market-moving events in what is shaping
up as a busy first week of December. The chances of a
third cash rate cut for the year at Tuesday's RBA board
meeting are close to zero.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/bumperweek-as-rba-and-gdp-guide-sentiment-20151128glamzw.html

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

AFR: Australia drifting inexorably to bigger


government on $120b budget blowout
A top budget expert warns Australia is inexorably
drifting towards bigger government because the federal
government appears unwilling to curb spending despite
tax shortfalls that will contribute to $120 billion of
budget deficits over the next four years. Predicting
deficits as far as the eye can see, Deloitte Access
Economics partner Chris Richardson blames China's
slowdown and falling national income from commodities
for 90 per cent of the deterioration, which has worsened
the fiscal bottom line by $38 billion since the May
budget.
http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/australiadrifting-inexorably-to-bigger-government-on-120bbudget-blowout-20151129-glanip
SCMP: China seen holding off LNG deliveries
amid glut and high-cost domestic output
A wave of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to arrive
on Chinas shores from next year amid a gas glut will
likely force the countrys oil and gas majors to hold off
gas deliveries and cut high-cost domestic output,
analysts say. But they are unlikely to default on their
long-term contractual natural gas import commitments
worth hundreds of billions of dollars as that would
jeopardise their reputation as reliable long-term
purchaser partners whose commitments are key to
successful development of big overseas gas export
projects, the analysts said. Instead, the domestic oil and
gas majors will be more inclined to defer or cut their
offtake volumes and pare high-cost domestic output to
make room for imports, most of it in chilled and
liquefied form carried by ocean-going tankers.
http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/18843
81/china-seen-holding-lng-deliveries-amid-glut-andhigh-cost-domestic
Business Times: Growth amid uncertainty seen
in 2016
2015 was no doubt a year marked by volatility, but as the
world looks towards a new year amid uncertainties, top
management of companies here says that there are
cornerstones - chief of all the Asean Economic
Community (AEC) - in place to prime the domestic,
regional and global economies for better growth ahead.
And as economies strengthen cooperation to stabilise
growth, these industry leaders are looking towards
strengthening certain capabilities to help their
companies take advantage of new growth opportunities.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/views-from-thetop/growth-amid-uncertainty-seen-in-2016

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.