GLL Adelphos

Fund
GLL Adelphos Fund
Seeking Alpha in an uncertain
market

1
Scope GLL Adelphos
Fund

1. Fund Objective
2. NY Storm Crisis
3. Global Market Outlook
4. Fund Holdings
5. Conclusion

2
Fund Objective GLL Adelphos
Fund

Achieve long-term capital growth by

investing in a diversified portfolio of quality
funds with proven track record

Review Macro Environment

Select Asset Classes

Select
funds

3
Key Development - NY Storm Crisis GLL Adelphos
Fund

§ Property values plummet

§ Sharp decline in consumer spending
§ Loss of tourism revenue
§ Agriculture damage

4
Potential Impact of NY Crisis on US Equity Market GLL Adelphos
Fund
S&P 500
10750
10700
10650
10600
10550
10500
10450 -2.9%
10400
10350
10300
Hurricane
10250
Katrina
10200
Jul-0

Aug-

16-

23-

30-
12-

19-

26-

2-

9-

6-
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Potential Impact of NY Crisis on financial markets GLL Adelphos
Fund

Assets Impact

US Equity Market

Insurance companies

Materials and construction

Fixed income

Gold and other commodities

6
Macroeconomic Outlook GLL Adelphos
Fund

§ Market rally in 2009 driven

by massive liquidity

§ Mixed picture in 2010 with

sluggish recovery in G3
economies and bubble risk
in Asia

§ Expect policy exits to

happen after a sustained
recovery of G3 economies

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Fund

S&P Emerging Asia

Pacific 93%
S&P 500
68%
FTSE 100
59%
Nikkei 225
43%

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Asia – Strongest in recovery Fund
Attractive
§ Hot money flows into Asia driven by spreads between Asian and G3
interest rates and anticipated GDP growth
§ Market prices largely reflect positive news flow

Key Risk
Ø Asia still dependent on G3
recovery
Ø Double-dip market

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
China – The World’s growth engine Fund
Neutral
§  Sustain GDP growth at ~8% and CPI below 3% for 2010
§  Explosive credit boom: PBOC target new loans at RMB 7–8 trn for
2010

Key Risk
Ø Regulatory risk
Ø Withdraw preferential
policies for property and auto
sector
Ø Tightened lending to
property sector in Tier 1 cities

Source: Factset

10
Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
USA – Robust recovery Fund
Attractive
§  Money market funds totaled $3.32 trillion in Dec 09 vs. $2.40 trillion
under normal market conditions
§  Focus on US Quality Blue chips

Key Risk
Ø Consumer spending fails to rebound due to rising
unemployment
Ø Dismal Q1 corporate earnings
Ø NY Storm Crisis results in sharp decline in consumer
spending 11
Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Europe – Balancing the union Fund
Unattractive
§  One-size-fits-all policy resulted in severe deflation in Greece and Spain
§  Government balance sheet repair in progress
§  EU Unemployment rate remained at a high 9.8%
§  UK valuations o at 12x vs. 11.8x average – Too optimistic

Source: Haver Analytics Source: Consensus Economics Inc.

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Japan – Still in the doldrums Fund
Unattractive
§  Deterioration in public finances, deflationary environment and weak
consumer demand
§  Equity performance hinges on the weakening of the Yen
§  Unattractive valuations with PE 1.7x vs. 1.5x average

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Asset Allocation GLL Adelphos
Fund
Underweight Neutral Overweight
Equities Europe, UK China, HK Indonesia
Japan US Blue Chip
Bonds Corporate Convertible
bonds PARVEST Asian
Convertible Bond
Alternative Assets 10% Commodities

Fund Invested
Amount SCHRODER
Alternative
SCHRODER Alternative $3,500,000 Solutions
ABERDEEN Commodities Fund
Solutions Commodities Fund Indonesia Equity 35%
Fund
DB Platinum IV CROCI US $3,000,000 25%

ABERDEEN Indonesia Equity $2,500,000

Fund
DB Platinum IV
PARVEST Asian Convertible $1,000,000 CROCI US
30%
Bond 14
 GLL Adelphos
Bonds: The End of A Bull Market Fund

1982-2009 is the longest bond bull

market ever seen. This will not
persist as interest rate will rise from
current low levels in our investment
horizon of 5 years

Graph Source: Traders Narrative

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 GLL Adelphos
PARVEST Asian Convertible Bond Fund
Bond Portion: Convertible
Accounting for the Portion:
defensive aspect Provide exposure
to possible upside
Convertible Bonds
Best of Both Worlds

Sources: Fund Factsheet

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 GLL Adelphos
Commodity Demand Outpace Supply Fund
Rising Affluence + Massive
Growth of Population
Emerging  Growing consumption
Markets Rapid Urbanization &
Industrialization
 Infrastructure Needs
Sustainable Economic Recovery
Recovering
è Rebuilding of economy will
Economy
spur commodity demand

Loose Monetary Policy + Stimulus

Inflation è Inflation
Commodity provides an excellent
hedge Worsening
Climate

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 GLL Adelphos
Schroder Commodities SGD Fund Fund
Fund Name Emphasis YTD (%) Managemen Annual
t Fee Expense
Ratio
Schroder AS Energy, Agriculture, -3.13% 1.5 2.01%
Commodities Metals
BNP Paribas Agriculture Agricultural Commodities -6.89% 1.5 3.47%
Indexes -100%
Schroder AS Gold & Precious Metals & -0.27% 1.5 N/A
Metals Industrials Metals-90%
United Commodities Bonds-91.43% -1.51% 1.5 2.98%
Portfolio Exposure Since
Plus
Launch

Prefer Diversified VS
Theme-Orientated
Commodity Fund

Sources: Fund Factsheet

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund
US contributes
lion’s share to
World GDP

Source: IMF 2008 – World GDP

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund
Uptick in manufacturing
activity

Source: Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis

Unemployment rate
expected to plateau
Similar movements
in consumer
spending

Source: Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis Source: Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund

§  FED expressed reluctance to hike

rates
§  Obama administration has
extended TARP programme until
Oct 2010

§  Discussions for gradual

withdrawal of stimulus
§  Growing confidence in US
financial system

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

Why Indonesia?
§  Government is keen on receiving foreign
investments
§  Rich and diversified natural resources
§  Competitive labor force
§  Strong domestic demand

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

§  Indonesia’s exports were

not spared during downturn
§  However, other
components of GDP held
up during crisis

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

§  Exports constitute a smaller portion of GDP

§  Consumer spending picked up strongly

Source: Asian Development Bank

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
FDI inflows picking up
Fund
Portfolio inflows resume

Equity prices rebounded with regional Rising foreign demand for government debt
bourses

Source: Asian Development Bank

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

Domestic Consumption
• Less dependent on exports

Infrastructure Development
• US$140bn government
spending

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Conclusion GLL Adelphos
Fund
Underweight Neutral Overweight
Equities Europe, UK China, HK Indonesia
Japan US Large Cap,
Bonds Corporate Convertible
bonds
Alternative Assets Commodities
Fund Invested Portfolio
Amount Weight
SCHRODER Alternative $3,500,000 35%
Solutions Commodities Fund
DB Platinum IV CROCI US $3,000,000 30%
ABERDEEN Indonesia Equity $2,500,000 25%
Fund
PARVEST Asian Convertible $1,000,000 10%
Bond
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Links GLL Adelphos
Fund
q  Global Deficit
q  US Sector focus
q  US Capacity Utilization
q  Strong Commodity Demand
q  Correlation of asset classes with inflation
q  CPI
q  Supply Shortage
q  Inflation
q  BOE
q  OECD Inventories
q  Indonesia’s Political Situation
q  Indonesia’s Economic Growth
q  China’s Economic Woes
q  Indian Powerhouse?

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Global Deficit GLL Adelphos
Fund

Source: BOA-ML Global

Research, IMF

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US Sector focus GLL Adelphos
Fund

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US Capacity Utilization GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Strong Commodity Demand GLL Adelphos
Fund
Rising Population
China Total Population (Millions) India Total Population
1,380
(Millions)
1,370
1,330
1,360
1,280
1,350
1,230
1,340
1,180
1,330
1,130
1,320
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rapid Urbanization
China Urban Population ('000)
680,000
India Urban Population ('000)
400,000
660,000
390,000
640,000 380,000

620,000 370,000
360,000
600,000
350,000
580,000
340,000
560,000 330,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Correlation of asset classes with inflation GLL Adelphos
Fund

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CPI GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Supply Shortage GLL Adelphos
Fund
EL Nino

Booming Population
-Present farming yields have to be doubled
over the next forty years just to keep the
average per capita daily intake of calories
at the same levels as today.
Water Shortage
-Farming require vast amount of water and
demand for fresh water is climbing twice as
fast as the population is expanding

Desertification
-Arable land is shrinking at an alarming rate

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Inflation GLL Adelphos
Fund
Inflation beating expectation
(marked with a star below when inflation was higher than forecast):

CPI inflation history for 2009 (and expectations)

• January: 3.0% (2.7%)*
• February: 3.2% (2.6%)*
• March: 2.9% (2.9%)
• April: 2.3% (2.4%)
• May: 2.2% (2.0%)*
• June: 1.8% (1.8%)
• July: 1.8% (1.5%)*
• August: 1.6% (1.4%)*
• September: 1.1% (1.3%)
• October: 1.5% (1.5%)
• November: 1.9% (1.8%)*
• December: 2.9% (2.4%)*
• January: 3.5% (3.5%)

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BOE GLL Adelphos
Fund
•  Bank of England
Current Rate: 0.5%
Current inflation:3.5%
Inflation Target: 2.0%

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OECD Inventories GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Indonesia’s Political Situation GLL Adelphos
Fund

Year Elected President

1966 Suharto

1999 Abdurrahman Wahid

2001 Megawati
2004 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
2009 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

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Indonesia’s Economic Growth GLL Adelphos
Fund

Sustained
economic growth
even amidst
global headwinds

Used prudent
measures to
maintain growth

Source: Bank of Indonesia

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Indonesia’s Economic Growth GLL Adelphos
Fund

Inflation to be kept in check

Source: Bank of Indonesia

44
China’s Economic Woes GLL Adelphos
Fund
Surge in Property
bank sales volume
lending surge

Property
prices
skyrocketing

45
Indian Powerhouse? GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Katrina and US Budget Deficit GLL Adelphos
Fund

•  Hurricane Katrina cost $81.2bn

•  US budget deficit currently at $10.6tn
•  Makes up 0.8% of total US budget deficit
•  Makes up 5% of FY09 budget deficit of
$1.5tn

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 GLL Adelphos
Fund

*PBOC 1 year Yuan Lending Rate

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management

48
 GLL Adelphos
Emerging Market Consumption Fund

Market share of emerging markets in commodity

consumption
1993 2008
Crude Oil 43.1% 51.8%
Aluminum 32.4% 59.2%
Copper 35.2% 61.7%

Source: International Energy Agency, World Bureau of Metals and US Department of Agriculture

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