InthewakeoflastweeksshootingataPlannedParenthoodfacilityinColoradoSprings,

Colorado,SenatorTedCruzonMondayclaimedthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofviolent
criminalsareDemocrats.Whenaskedforevidence,thesenatorscampaigncitedapaperwe
publishedin2013,inwhichwepresentdataonthepartyaffiliationofexfelonsinthreestates.
ButSenatorCruzismisinterpretingourresearch.Wehavenotexploredpartisanshipbytypeof
crime,violentorotherwise,andsoourwork,aspublished,cannotsupportSenatorCruzsclaim.

SenatorCruzismakingacommonmistakewhencharacterizingtheexfelonpopulation:he
equatesexfelonswithviolentcriminals.Butthetermdescribesanyonewhohasbeenconvicted
ofafelonyandsubsequentlycompletedtheirprison,probation,andparoleterms.Onlyasmall
shareofexfelonsareconvictedofviolentcrimes.Thisisbothbecausemostfelonsare
convictedofnonviolentcrimesandthefactthatthosewhoareconvictedofviolentfelonies
servelongersentencesthanthoseconvictedofnonviolentfelonies.

Toillustratethispoint,wetakeacloserlookatsomeofourdatafromIowa.ThepaperSenator
Cruzcitedisoneinaseriesofpaperswehaveauthoredinwhichwehavecombined
individuallyidentifiable,publicrecordsfromdepartmentsofcorrections,statecourts,and
secretaryofstateofficestodirectlymeasureexfelonspartyregistrationandturnouthistory.
Althoughwehavenotpreviouslymadeuseofthesedata,ourIowadataincludesinformationon
exfelonstypeofoffense.Asthetablebelowshows,onlyabout12%ofthedischarged
populationbetween2002and2012wasconvictedofaviolentcrime.

Crime Type

Share of Population

Property

35.2%

Drug

33.2%

Public Order

17.6%

Violent

11.9%

Other

2.0%

Wealsoexploreexfelonspartisanaffiliationbytheirtypeofcrime.SenatorCruziscorrectthat
peopleconvictedofaviolentcrimearemorelikelytoidentifyasDemocratsthanas
Republicans.Butpeopleconvictedofviolentcrimeshavesimilarpoliticalorientationsas
nonviolentoffenders.Andthismissesthelargerstory:evenmoreexfelonsregisteras
Independentsorwithaminorparty.ThisisconsistentwithatheoryadvancedbyAmyLerman
andVeslaWeaverintheirbook,
ArrestingCitizenship,
inwhichcontactwiththecriminaljustice
systemdemobilizesexfelonsandmakesthemlesstrustfuloftraditionalpoliticalinstitutions.

Crime Type

% Registered

% Democrat

% Republican

% Other

Violent (N = 5,894)

24.6%

40.1%

16.7%

43.2%

Non-Violent (N = 43,646)

27.3%

41.4%

14.3%

44.3%

SenatorCruzwasonstrongerfootingwhen,laterintheinterview,hedroppedhisfocuson
violentcrimesandclaimedthat,instead,convictedfelonstendtovoteDemocrat.Inthepaper
thattheCruzcampaignreferenced,wedofindthatthemajorityofexfelonsinNewMexico,
NewYork,andNorthCarolinaregisterwiththeDemocraticParty.Butsimilaranalyseswehave
conductedinMaineandRhodeIslandshowthatapluralityofexfelonsregisteras
Independentsorwiththirdparties,asisthecaseinIowaabove.

Whydoweseesuchdifferencesinexfelonspartisanaffiliationsacrossstates?Onereason
mightberace.AfricanAmericansarebothoverrepresentedintheexfelonpopulationandhave
someofthestrongestallegiancestotheDemocraticParty.ButwhileAfricanAmericansare
overrepresentedintheexfelonpopulationineverystate,theirshareofthepopulationvaries
widelyacrossstates.Forexample,inMaine,only6%oftheexfelonpopulationweanalyzed
wasblack,whileinNorthCarolina,55%wasblack.Weknowpoor,young,andminoritycitizens
aremorelikelytoidentifyasDemocrats.Wealsoknowthatthesedemographicsare
disproportionatelyrepresentedintheexfelonpopulation,eveninastatelikeMaine.Cruzs
interviewimplicitlyimpliedthatbeingafelonmakessomeonemoreDemocratic.Butaseminal
book,
LockedOut
byJeffManzaandChrisUggen,predictsthat,basedondemographicsalone,
,
70%ofthecriminallydisenfranchisedpopulationwouldidentifyasDemocratsifeligibletovote.
Thus,itseemsmorelikelythatthepatternsthatCruzhighlightsaredrivenbycompositional
differencesbetweentheexfelonpopulationandthegeneralpopulationofvoters.

Todemonstratetheimportanceofdemographics,weusedatafromFlorida.Accordingtorecent
estimatesbytheSentencingProject,welloveronemillionpeoplecitizensareunabletovote
duetoacriminalconviction,morethananyotherstate.AlthoughFloridacurrentlypermanently
disenfranchisesexfelons,thestatepolicyhasbeenquitefluidovertime.Between2007and
2011,approximately150,000exfelonshadtheirvotingrightsrestored.Wemeasurethe
partisanidentificationoftheseexfelonsbymatchingtheirnamesandbirthdatestopublicly
availablevoterrecords.Wethencomparetheirpartisanaffiliationstothatofthegeneralvoting
population.

ThetablebelowshowsthatAfricanAmericansoverwhelminglyidentifyasDemocratswhether
ornottheyareexfelons.Amongexfelonswhoareblackmalesbetweentheagesof18to29,
thefirstrowshowsthat72.8%identifyasDemocrats,4.5%identifyasRepublicans,and22.7%
identifywithathirdpartyorasanIndependent.Asapointofcomparison,thefirstrowalso
showsthatamongregisteredvoterswhoareblackmalesbetweentheagesof18to29,73.6%
areDemocrats,4.5%areRepublicans,and21.9%areIndependentorsupportathirdparty.The
samepattern,inwhichblackexfelonsandnonfelonsshareasimilarpartisanidentification,
holdsforalloftheotherageandgendercombinationsaswell.

ThetablealsoshowsthatnonblackexfelonsareslightlymorelikelytosupporttheDemocratic
Partythantheirdemographiccounterparts.ButasubstantialpercentageidentifyasRepublican
aswell.Forexample,33.5%ofexfelonswhoarenonblackmalesovertheageof45registered
withtheRepublicanparty,onlyslightlylessthanthe37.6%whoregisteredasDemocrats.

TheimplicationofthetableisthatwhiletherearemorepotentialDemocratswhoare
disenfranchised,therearealotofpotentialRepublicanswhoaredisenfranchisedtoo.The
SentencingProjectestimatesthat,asof2010,therewere432,839blackexfelons,or23.3%of
theblackvotingagepopulation,whoweredeniedtherighttovote.Thetableabovesuggests
theseareprimarilywouldbeDemocraticvoters.Butwhileblacksaredisproportionately
representedintheexfelonpopulation,amajorityofdisenfranchisedexfelonsinFlorida
890,521or7%ofthestatesnonblackvotingagepopulationarenonblacks.Theyare
similarlybarredfromthepollsdespitemanyidentifyingasRepublicans,instarkcontrastto
SenatorCruzscomments.

SenatorCruzisoverestimatingthepartisanimpactoffelondisenfranchisement.Thereis
actuallyascholarlydebatebetweenUggenandManzaandpoliticalscientistTraciBurchabout
whetherGeorgeW.BushorAlGorewouldhavenettedmorevotesifexfelonswereallowedto
voteinthe2000presidentialelectioninFlorida.Hisremarkshelpexplain,atleastinpart,the
Republicanreticenceforreform.Thecommentsfuelanarrativethatignoresthenormativecosts
ofstrippingalmostsixmillionpeopleoftheirvotingrights,nottomentiontheadministrative
burdensonelectionadministratorsandcriminaljusticeofficials,andtheconfusionthatmakes
otherwiseeligiblevotersdefactodisenfranchised.Wehopethatouranalysisheremightprovide

somehelpfulcontexttotheSenator.Theexfelonpopulationishardlyoverwhelmingly
Democraticnationally.Mostexfelonsareneitherviolentnorblack.Mostfelonsandmany
exfelonsinfactcannotvoteatall.RecentestimatesbytheSentencingProjectsuggestthat
almostsixmillioncitizenscannotvotebecauseofacriminalconviction.Thesepeoplearenot
DemocratsorRepublicans.Theyaredisenfranchised.