Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
China Economics
abc
Global Research
29 April 2011
Qu Hongbin
Chief Economist, Greater China
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2822 2025
hongbinqu@hsbc.com.hk
Sun Junwei
Economist
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Contents
Outbound investment takes off
Going global
Charts
Prices
20
Commodity prices
22
24
26
28
GDP
10
Asset markets
30
Industrial production
12
33
Private consumption
14
Fixed investment
16
Trade
18
China
34
Global
35
Disclosure appendix
38
Disclaimer
39
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Outbound investment
takes off
Rising industrial capacity, huge appetite for resources and a
Going global
China now is not just the worlds exporter of
goods but also one of the worlds top exporters of
capital. Massive FX reserves aside, the countrys
outbound direct investment (ODI) is also taking
off, reaching nearly USD60bn last year. Signs
have emerged that this figure may double in the
coming 3-5 years.
120
(%)
(USDbn)
14
12
100
10
80
60
40
20
0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
60
(% of total)
40
20
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Leasing & Commercial Serv ice
Mining
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Source: CEIC, HSBC
50
(% of total)
2005
40
2010
30
20
10
0
Leasing &
Commercial
Mining
Wholesale,
Manuf
Transport
retail
Serv ice
Source: CEIC, HSBC
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
100
(%)
(%)
80
60
40
20
0
2003 2004 2005 2006
Asia (Lhs)
Africa (Lhs)
North Am (Rhs)
2007
2008 2009
LatinAm (Rhs)
Europe (Rhs)
Oceania(Rhs)
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
40
30
20
10
0
-10 1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
20111Q
-20
Dev eloped markets(%yr)
Emerging markets
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
(RMB bn)
300
200
100
0
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
400
Mar-11
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
abc
Charts
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
GDP
GDP growth for 1Q came in stronger than the market expected at
18
12
15
12
-4
-8
-12
00 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
%YoY
08
09
10 11
%y oy
%y oy
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
OECD leading (LHS)
Real GDP (RHS)
SAAR
65
12
60
20
55
10
50
45
-10
40
-3
-20
-6
-30
10
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
35
PMI - mfg
% y oy
% y oy
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Economic leading indicator (LHS)
Business climate index (RHS)
Source: CEIC, HSBC
30
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
6. GDP, by industry
YTD, %y oy
17
YTD, %y oy
21
15
18
13
15
11
12
9
Bohai
YRD
Sep-10
Mar-10
Sep-09
Mar-09
Sep-08
Mar-08
Sep-07
Mar-07
Sep-06
Mar-06
Sep-05
Mar-05
93
PRD
95
97
99
Primary
7. Industrial production
8. Commodity production
% y oy , 3mma
21
01
05
Secondary
07
09
11
Tertiary
% y oy , 3mma
40
18
03
30
15
20
12
10
9
6
-10
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
01
VAI
02 03 04 05
Coal production
9. Construction sector
RMB bn
%y oy
30
110
2,500
28
105
2,000
26
1,500
24
1,000
22
95
500
20
90
18
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
3,000
%y oy
06
07 08 09 10 11
Electricity production
65
60
100
55
50
85
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Consumer confidence (LHS)
Future income confidence (RHS)
Source: CEIC, HSBC
11
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Industrial production
IP growth accelerated to a higher-than-expected 14.8% y-o-y in
%y oy
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
%y oy
15
20
%y oy , 3mma
%mom, 3mma
13
11
15
2
9
10
7
5
01 02 03
04 05 06 07 08 09
IP (LHS)
-2
-4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
10 11
%YoY
GDP (RHS)
SA, %MoM
%y oy , 3mma
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
65
25
% y oy , 3mma
% y oy , 3mma 40
60
55
50
30
20
20
15
10
45
40
0
10
-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-05
35
IP (LHS)
12
-20
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
IP
Electricity production
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
% y oy , 3mma
24
% y oy , 3mma
25
20
19
15
10
14
0
01
4
01
02
03 04 05
Light industry
06
07
08 09 10 11
Heav y industry
02
03
04
05
SOE
Share holding enterprise
90
10
Output
Output Prices
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
2
Jul-07
10
Jan-08
Jul-06
30
Jan-07
Jan-06
50
Jul-05
Jan-05
70
PMI Index
Input Prices
08
09
10
11
Collectiv e ow nership
Foreign funded
0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Industrial enterprise: pre-tax profit margin
New Orders
% y oy
07
40
% y oy
30
20
10
0
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
06
Food
Electric M&E
Tex tile
Transport'n equip
13
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Private consumption
Retail sales growth rebounded to 17.4% y-o-y in March, notably
2. Consumer confidence
25
50
110
40
20
30
15
100
20
10
10
90
0
5
-10
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Consumer confidence
Satisfactory index
Ex pectation index
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
%YoY (LHS)
SAAR, 3mma (RHS)
Source: CEIC, HSBC
3. Confidence in income
4. Confidence in prices
70
90
65
70
60
50
55
50
30
45
10
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
01
02
03
14
05
06
07
08
09
04
10
11
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
27
% y oy
27
24
24
21
21
18
18
15
% y oy
15
12
12
9
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Urban
Rural
per capita, % y oy
30
25
20
per capita, % y oy
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
0
-5
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
25
Income
Disposable income
Consumption ex penditure
Cash Income
Cash ex penditure
%y oy
40
%y oy
30
20
10
0
Clothing
Serv ice & others
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
-10
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Clothing
Serv ice & others
15
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Fixed investment
Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth edged up to 25% y-o-y in 1Q
secondary sectors (up 10.8% y-o-y and 24.8% y-o-y y-t-d in March
respectively, compared with 6.9% and 24.7% in Jan-Feb)
Growth of investment in newly-started projects returned to positive
1. FAI growth
55
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
50
45
40
35
30
25
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
20
y td, %y oy
SOE
Priv ate enterprise
y td, %y oy
Shareholding
Foreign fund
80
y td, %y oy
80
70
60
60
40
50
30
20
-20
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
20
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
40
16
y td, %y oy
Under construction
Source: CEIC, HSBC
New ly Started
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
y td, %y oy
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
y td, %y oy
150
100
50
New Construction
Transformation
Coal
Non metal
Ex pansion
y td, %y oy
50
0
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
-50
Real estate
Construction
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
Jul-10
20
0
-20
-40
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
100
Chemical
Tex tile
y td, % y oy
100
80
60
40
150
Jan-11
Ferrous metal
Electricity & heating
Transport
40%
20%
20%
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
State budget
Foreign capital
Jan-10
Highw ay
Waterw ay
Jan-08
Railw ay
Urban public transit
Air
0%
Jan-07
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
0%
Jan-09
200
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Domestic loan
Self raised
17
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Trade
Exports and imports exceeded market expectations by a wide
80
%y oy , 3mma
USD bn
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
-20
-10
-40
-20
%mom, 3mma
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Trade balance (RHS)
Ex port (LHS)
Import (LHS)
00
01 02 03 04 05 06
Ex port (SA)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
%y oy , 3mma
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Ex port to G3
Source: CEIC, HSBC
18
Ex port to ROW
07 08 09 10 11
Imports (SA)
% y oy , 3mma
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Import from G3
Source: CEIC, HSBC
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
80
% y oy , 3mma
10
%mom, 3mma
Pts
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
60
5
40
20
0
-5
-20
-40
-10
04
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Ex port
Taiw an's new ex port orders
05
06
07
Ex port (SA, LHS)
% y oy
100
08
09
10
11
PMI new ex port orders (RHS)
% y oy
90
80
60
40
40
20
-10
0
-20
% y oy
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Ex port - Processing
120
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-06
-60
-40
80
% y oy , 3mma
60
40
Iron ore
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
-20
Jan-06
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
20
19
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Prices
CPI surged to a 32-month high of 5.4% y-o-y in March from 4.9%
(up 11.7% y-o-y from 11% y-o-y in Feb); non-food prices (notably
services and housing) growth also gained momentum
Inflationary pressures have not been meaningfully alleviated but
%y oy
10
%mom, 3mma
2.0
25
1.5
20
1.0
15
0.5
10
0.0
-2
-0.5
-4
-1.0
-5
8
6
4
2
0
%y oy
06
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
YOY (LHS)
MOM (RHS)
07
09
Ov erall
10
08
%y oy
%y oy
15
Core
10
11
Food
%mom, 3mma
10
0.5
6
5
-0.5
0
-2
-5
-4
-10
01
02
03
04
Urban
20
1.5
05
06
07
08
09
10
Rural
11
-1.5
-2.5
03
04 05 06
YOY (LHS)
07
08
09 10 11
MOM (RHS)
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
%y oy
15
%y oy
15
10
10
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-15
-10
01
02
03 04 05
Light industry
06
07
08 09 10 11
Heav y industry
01
02 03 04 05
Producer goods
06
07
% y oy
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
08 09 10 11
Consumer goods
% y oy
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10 11
04
PPI
Corporate goods price index
Purchasing price index - raw materials
05
9. Petroleum prices
% y oy
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
06
07
Ov erall index
Construct'n & install'n
08
09
10
11
% y oy
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
PPI - petroleum and natural gas
Import v alue index - petroleum
11
-5
01
02
03
04
05 06 07 08 09
Residential property price
10
11
21
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Commodity prices
March PPI picked up to 7.3% y-o-y, a touch higher than consensus
and the February reading of 7.2% y-o-y. The PPI price of producer
goods remained flat at 8.2% y-o-y, while the PPI price of consumer
goods picked up further to 4.4% y-o-y from 4.1% y-o-y in February
Rising crude oil and international commodities prices are not
6,000
80,000
RMB / Ton
RMB / Ton
70,000
5,500
60,000
5,000
50,000
4,500
40,000
4,000
30,000
3,500
20,000
3,000
10,000
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
01 02
11
03
04 05
23,000
26,000
RMB / Ton
06 07 08
09
09
10
10
11
RMB / Ton
21,000
22,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
11,000
10,000
01 02
22
03
04 05
06 07 08
09
10
11
06
Source: CEIC, HSBC
07
08
11
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
36,000
450,000
RMB / Ton
32,000
400,000
28,000
350,000
RMB / Ton
300,000
24,000
250,000
20,000
200,000
16,000
150,000
12,000
100,000
8,000
50,000
01 02 03
04 05 06
07 08 09 10 11
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
8,000
9,000
RMB / Ton
7,000
8,000
6,000
7,000
5,000
6,000
4,000
5,000
3,000
4,000
2,000
RMB / Ton
3,000
01
02 03
04
05
06 07 08
09
10
11
01
02
03 04
5.25
5.00
4.75
4.50
4.25
4.00
3.75
3.50
3.25
3.00
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
3.75
RMB / Kg
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
RMB / Kg
3.50
3.25
3.00
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
01
02
03
04
23
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
M2
Loan
02
03
04
Demand deposit
35
15
5
04
05
06
Loan
24
07
08
09
10
08
09
10
11
Loan
Feb-07
25
07
Time deposit
Aug-08
45
06
RMB bn
Feb-08
2100
1800
1500
1200
900
600
300
0
-300
Aug-07
%y oy
55
05
11
FAI
Source: CEIC, HSBC
Feb-11
M1
01
Aug-10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
%y oy
Feb-10
%y oy
Aug-09
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Feb-09
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
6. Consumer credit
2,000
70
RMB bn
%y oy
60
1,000
50
0
40
30
-1,000
20
-2,000
Consumer loan
7. Loan-to-deposit ratio
95
% y oy
45
40
35
30
90
85
80
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Liquidity w ithdraw al
Jul-08
Jan-08
Liquidity injection
Net position
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
10
Loan
% y oy
8
6
25
20
15
10
5
75
70
65
60
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Loan-to-deposit ratio
4
2
0
-2
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
M1 (LHS)
% y oy
% y oy
10
3,500
10
3,000
-5
1,000
-10
500
-15
-2
15
01 02
03 04 05 06 07
M1-M2 gap (LHS)
08 09 10 11
CPI (RHS)
10
55
45
2,500
2,000
35
1,500
25
15
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
USD bn (LHS)
%YoY (RHS)
25
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
the latest one in early April), pushing the 1-year deposit rate to
3.25% and the 1-year lending rate to 6.31%
We expect one more interest rate hike (25bp) in the coming
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
06
01
02 03 04 05
1Y lending rate
06
07
08 09 10 11
1Y deposit rate
07
08
09
10
RRR
Large depository institution
Small and medium depository institution
4. Interbank rate
800
4
3
600
2
400
Jul-10
26
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-07
0
Jul-06
0
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-05
200
% p.a.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-07
% p.a.
Jan-06
RMB bn
1,000
11
3M SHIBOR
Source: CEIC, HSBC
Jan-11
00
Jan-10
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-09
% p.a.
8
7
6
5
Jan-08
3M CHIBOR
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
5. Bond yields
6. Mortgage rate
% p.a.
% p.a.
5.5
5.0
4.5
2
4.0
3.5
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
3.0
02
03
04 05 06
5 Yr or Less
100
12
7
May-09
Jan-09
As Benchmark
10-30% abov e
10% below
30-100% abov e
Sep-10
8
May-10
20
Jan-10
40
Sep-09
10
Sep-08
60
May-08
11
Jan-08
80
08
09 10
Ov er 5 Yr
11
RMB
6
03
10% abov e
04
05
06
RMB/USD
RMB/USD
6.95
07
20
07
08
RMB/JPY100
09
10
11
RMB/EUR
%y oy
15
6.85
10
6.75
6.65
Spot
Source: CEIC, HSBC
12M NDF
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
-10
Jul-09
6.45
Mar-09
-5
Nov-08
6.55
-15
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
REER
NEER
Source: CEIC, HSBC
27
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
2. Creation of jobs
GDP (LHS)
800
mil person
18
GDP (RHS)
YTD, %y oy
600
13
400
8
200
3
0
2003
2004 2005
Primary
Source: CEIC, HSBC
28
2006
Secondary
2007 2008
2009
06
07
Tertiary
08
Urban
Mar-11
5
Dec-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jul-05
3.9
Jan-05
Sep-10
4.0
Jun-10
13
11
Mar-10
4.1
Dec-09
4.2
Sep-09
4.3
12
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Jun-09
4.4
Mar-09
Dec-08
%y oy
15
Sep-08
09
10
Rural
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
20
%y oy
YTD, %y oy
21
18
15
15
10
12
9
07
08
09
10
02
11
03
04
GDP
05
06
SOE
Mar-05
Jun-04
10
Sep-03
10
Dec-02
15
Mar-02
15
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
20
Eastern
Others
Central
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
<RMB25k
Source: CEIC, HSBC
2006
RMB25-55K
2007
2008
RMB55-85K
2009
>RMB85K
11
Central
2005
10
YTD, %y oy
25
20
09
Real
YTD, %y oy
08
Nominal
25
07
2006
<RMB1K
2007
RMB1-2.5K
Sep-09
06
Dec-08
05
Mar-08
04
Jun-07
03
Sep-06
02
Dec-05
2008
2009
RMB>5000
29
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Asset markets
Property markets show no sign of meaningful cooling despite
1. Stock indices
6,000
250
5,000
200
4,000
150
%y oy
%y oy
100
3,000
50
2,000
1,000
-50
-100
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Shanghai (SSE)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
SSE index (LHS)
M1 (RHS)
Shenzhen (SZSE)
3. Price-to-earnings ratio
80
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
40,000
RMB bn
70
30,000
60
50
20,000
40
30
10,000
20
-
10
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
SSE
Source: CEIC, HSBC
30
06
SZSE
07
SSE
08
09
10
SZSE
11
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
RMB bn
160
2000=100
108
106
120
104
80
102
40
100
98
96
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
94
04
SSE
05
06
SZSE
07
08
09
Real estate climate index
7. Property prices
% y oy
% y oy
40
30
20
10
0
% mom
% mom, 3mma
50
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Property sales (YTD, LHS)
M1 (RHS)
2.0
11
60
40
20
0
-20
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-07
140
120
100
80
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jan-06
% y oy
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
10
YTD, % y oy
80
60
1.5
1.0
2
0.5
40
20
0
M1 (SA, RHS)
-20
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jul-05
-40
Jan-05
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-07
0
Jul-06
-0.5
Jan-06
Jul-05
0.0
31
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
32
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
abc
33
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
China
Macro framework
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012e
11.6
2716
2077
13.7
24.5
16.2
50.1
4.1
14.2
3498
2661
16.8
25.8
17.1
51.0
4.0
9.6
4524
3424
21.6
26.1
12.9
51.4
4.2
9.2
4994
3760
15.5
30.5
12.9
50.0
4.3
10.3
5886
4410
18.5
24.5
15.7
50.5
4.1
8.9
6892
5138
19.0
21.5
13.2
50.0
4.3
8.6
8051
5973
17.0
19
12.5
50.0
4.3
1.5
4.8
5.9
-0.7
3.3
3.9
2.9
2.8
3.1
14.0
6.5
5.4
16.2
1.2
-1.1
17.0
1.9
1.7
9.0
4.6
5.9
13.0
2.2
5.8
13
3.0
4.3
12
13.2
18.1
6.12
6.48
7.81
7.96
10.3
10.01
13.6
17.5
7.47
7.74
7.30
7.60
10.66
10.56
12.4
16.7
5.31
5.76
6.82
6.94
9.48
10.11
12.1
26.5
5.31
5.76
6.83
6.83
9.77
9.54
14.9
23.7
5.81
6.16
6.61
6.72
8.82
9.18
11.0
17.9
6.56
7.00
6.35
6.48
8.89
8.86
11.0
15.5
6.56
7.00
6.15
6.25
8.61
8.75
969
792
178
253
9.5
73
2.7
12.2
27.2
19.9
1,066
15.0
1,219
956
263
372
11.0
84
2.5
13.4
25.8
20.8
1,528
17.7
1,429
1,133
296
426
9.4
108
2.4
11.8
17.2
18.5
1,946
18.9
1,202
1,006
196
284
5.8
90
1.8
7.6
-15.9
-11.3
2,399
27.9
1578
1394
184.5
250
4.2
106
1.8
6.0
31.4
38.6
2,850
24.8
1863
1673
189.9
260
3.8
122
1.8
5.6
18.0
20.0
3150
23.8
2086
1940
145.8
210
2.6
134
1.7
5.3
12.0
16.0
3300
22.7
200
323
17.2
-1.0
188
374
14.4
0.6
181
375
10.8
-0.4
212
350
6.3
-2.2
245
330
4.2
-2.5
292
360
4.1
-2.0
292
360
4.8
-1.7
34
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Global
Key forecasts
________________________GDP ________________________ ______________________ Inflation _______________________
2009
2010e
2011e
2012e
2009
2010e
2011e
2012e
World (nominal GDP weights)
World (PPP weights)
Developed
Emerging
North America
US
Canada
Latin America
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
Chile
Western Europe
Eurozone
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Other Western Europe
UK
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
EMEA
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Turkey
Ukraine
Egypt*
Israel
Saudi Arabia
UAE
South Africa
Asia-Pacific
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Asia ex Japan
China
Asia ex Japan & China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
-2.4
-0.6
-3.7
1.9
-2.6
-2.6
-2.5
-3.4
-6.1
-0.6
-2.9
-1.5
-4.1
-4.0
-4.7
-2.5
-5.1
-3.7
-4.4
-5.0
-1.3
-5.3
-1.9
-3.4
-4.1
-6.5
1.7
-7.9
-4.7
-15.1
4.7
0.8
0.1
-2.9
-1.8
0.3
-6.3
1.3
-1.7
5.7
9.2
2.4
-2.8
687
4.5
-1.7
1.1
-1.3
0.2
-1.9
-2.3
5.3
3.8
5.0
2.6
7.4
2.9
2.9
3.0
6.6
5.1
7.8
9.0
5.3
1.8
1.7
3.5
1.6
1.0
-0.2
2.0
1.7
0.1
5.1
2.7
3.9
2.1
1.0
3.8
3.2
7.7
5.5
5.1
4.0
3.6
1.7
2.6
6.7
4.3
2.7
1.6
8.9
10.3
7.8
7.0
9.2
6.0
7.1
6.8
14.8
6.1
9.6
7.9
6.7
3.3
4.3
2.3
6.4
3.3
3.3
2.6
4.8
4.1
5.1
5.8
6.0
1.5
1.5
2.1
1.5
0.8
0.7
1.8
1.7
1.1
3.4
2.1
4.1
2.0
2.5
3.9
4.8
4.2
4.0
6.0
3.4
4.4
3.3
3.5
4.8
1.1
3.6
2.8
7.6
8.9
6.2
5.2
8.0
6.4
5.1
5.0
5.2
4.9
4.7
5.3
7.5
3.5
4.3
2.5
6.2
3.4
3.4
2.9
4.4
4.1
4.5
5.0
5.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
1.8
1.0
1.2
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.5
2.0
3.9
2.3
3.1
3.4
3.5
4.3
5.1
6.1
4.8
4.8
4.1
3.1
5.2
2.0
4.1
3.5
7.5
8.6
6.3
4.6
8.2
6.3
4.9
5.8
5.8
4.8
4.5
4.3
7.8
1.0
1.9
0.0
4.8
-0.3
-0.3
0.3
6.3
5.3
4.9
15.9
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.8
-0.2
1.5
2.2
2.2
-0.3
-0.5
7.7
1.0
4.2
3.5
11.7
6.3
16.0
15.5
3.9
5.1
1.3
7.2
0.8
-1.3
1.9
2.1
2.6
-0.7
5.1
0.5
10.9
4.8
0.6
3.3
0.6
2.8
-0.9
-0.8
7.1
2.4
3.3
1.4
5.7
1.7
1.6
1.8
7.0
4.1
4.9
23.2
1.4
1.8
1.6
1.1
1.7
1.6
1.7
2.5
3.3
2.3
1.1
0.7
5.9
1.4
4.9
2.6
6.9
8.7
9.5
11.7
2.7
5.4
0.7
4.3
2.0
-1.1
2.9
2.3
5.0
3.3
6.2
2.3
11.8
5.1
1.8
4.0
2.8
3.0
1.0
3.3
9.0
2.5
3.3
1.4
6.0
1.5
0.9
1.6
8.0
4.1
5.4
25.5
2.5
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.5
2.5
3.2
1.6
1.9
0.9
6.7
2.2
3.2
2.9
9.5
7.1
8.7
11.9
3.3
6.5
2.1
3.9
2.3
-0.7
3.1
4.0
4.8
3.9
5.4
4.4
7.1
6.3
3.0
4.5
3.2
3.8
2.3
3.8
9.9
2.2
2.8
1.2
5.5
1.1
1.1
2.0
7.5
3.5
4.6
22.5
2.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.3
1.5
6.5
2.4
3.4
2.8
8.5
6.4
8.0
11.1
3.1
7.0
3.3
5.5
2.1
-0.5
3.1
2.3
4.0
2.9
4.8
4.2
6.1
5.2
2.2
4.8
2.9
3.3
2.0
3.1
9.4
Notes: Calendar year; except for * which is based on Egyptian fiscal year (July-June); global and regional aggregates are calculated using chain nominal GDP (USD) weights.
Source: HSBC
35
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
Notes
36
abc
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
abc
Notes
37
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
abc
Disclosure appendix
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personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Hongbin Qu
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2
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38
Macro
China Economics
29 April 2011
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Disclaimer
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abc
Stephen King
Global Head of Economics
+44 20 7991 6700
stephen.king@hsbcib.com
Pablo Goldberg
Head of Global EM Research
+1 212 525 8729
pablo.a.goldberg@hsbc.com
Karen Ward
Senior Global Economist
+44 20 7991 3692
karen.ward@hsbcib.com
Madhur Jha
+44 20 7991 6755
madhur.jha@hsbcib.com
Europe
Janet Henry
Chief European Economist
+44 20 7991 6711
janet.henry@hsbcib.com
Astrid Schilo
+44 20 7991 6708
astrid.schilo@hsbcib.com
Alexander Morozov
+7 495 783 8855
alexander.morozov@hsbc.com
Murat Ulgen
+90 212 376 4619
muratulgen@hsbc.com.tr
Simon Williams
+971 4 507 7614
simon.williams@hsbc.com
Liz Martins
+971 4 423 6928
liz.martins@hsbc.com
Latin America
Argentina
Javier Finkman
Chief Economist, South America ex-Brazil
+54 11 4344 8144
javier.finkman@hsbc.com.ar
Germany
Lothar Hessler
+49 21 1910 2906
lothar.hessler@hsbc.de
France
Mathilde Lemoine
+33 1 4070 3266
mathilde.lemoine@hsbc.fr
Ramiro D Blazquez
Senior Economist
+54 11 4348 5759
ramiro.blazquez@hsbc.com.ar
stuart1.green@hsbcib.com
Jorge Morgenstern
Senior Economist
+54 11 4130 9229
jorge.morgenstern@hsbc.com.ar
Brazil
Andre Loes
Chief Economist
+55 11 3371 8184
andre.a.loes@hsbc.com.br
Constantin Jancso
Senior Economist
+55 11 3371 8183
constantin.c.jancso@hsbc.com.br
ryan.wang@us.hsbc.com
Marcos Fernandes
+55 11 6847 9787
marcos.r.fernandes@hsbc.com.br
stewart_hall@hsbc.ca
Mexico
Sergio Martin
Chief Economist
+52 55 5721 2164
sergio.martinm@hsbc.com.mx
Central America
Lorena Dominguez
Economist
+52 55 5721 2172
lorena.dominguez@hsbc.com.mx
United Kingdom
Stuart Green
+44 20 7991 6718
Andrew Grantham
+44 20 7991 2170
andrew.grantham@hsbcib.com
North America
Kevin Logan
Chief US Economist
+1 212 525 3195
kevin.r.logan@us.hsbc.com
Ryan Wang
+1 212 525 3181
Stewart Hall
+1 416 868 7523
Asia Pacific
Qu Hongbin
Managing Director, Co-head Asian Economics Research and
Chief Economist Greater China
+852 2822 2025
hongbinqu@hsbc.com.hk
Frederic Neumann
Managing Director, Co-head Asian Economics Research
+852 2822 4556
fredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk
Leif Eskesen
Chief Economist, India & ASEAN
+65 6239 0840
leifeskesen@hsbc.com.sg
Paul Bloxham
Chief Economist, Australia and New Zealand
+61 2925 52635
paulbloxham@hsbc.com.au
Donna Kwok
+852 2996 6621
donnahjkwok@hsbc.com.hk
Sherman Chan
+852 2996 6975
shermanwkchan@hsbc.com.hk
Wellian Wiranto
+65 6230 2879
wellianwiranto@hsbc.com.sg
Seiji Shiraishi
+81 3 5203 3802
seiji.shiraishi@hsbc.co.jp
Yukiko Tani
+81 3 5203 3827
yukiko.tani@hsbc.co.jp
Sun Junwei
Associate
Sophia Ma
Associate