Economic Insights

Economics | October 16 2015

Week Ahead
Current

Last Week

Last month

Last year

October 15

October 8

September 15

October 15 2014

Cash Rate (%)

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.50

90 day bills (%)

2.16

2.18

2.18

2.71

10 year bonds (%)

2.58

2.64

2.69

3.68

AUD/USD

0.7318

0.7173

0.7114

0.8721

Gold ( US$/ounce)

1187.50

1144.30

1102.60

1244.80

Iron Ore ( US$/tonne)

53.20

54.80

56.40

82.20

Oil ( US$/barrel)

46.38

49.38

44.59

81.78

All Ordinaries

5265.6

5241.4

5046.6

5238.0

Australia
Date

Event

Consensus

Last release

Tuesday October 20

Reserve Bank Board minutes

Tuesday October 20

Business Sales Index (September)

Tuesday October 20

Imports of goods (September)

Thursday October 22

Detailed jobs data (October)

Thursday October 22

Speech by RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey

Consensus

Last release

International
Date

Event

Monday October 19

Chinese economic data

Monday October 19

US NAHB index (October)

62

62

Tuesday October 20

US Housing starts (September)

1.4%

-3.0%

Thursday October 22

US Monthly home prices (August)

0.5%

0.6%

Thursday October 22

US Existing home sales (September)

0.9%

-4.8%

Thursday October 22

US Leading index (September)

0.0%

0.1%

Friday October 23

Flash manufacturing surveys

A quiet week lies ahead in terms of Australian economic data. The focus is very much overseas with Chinese
economic growth figures due in China on Monday.

The week kicks off in Australia on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank releases minutes of the Board meeting held
a fortnight earlier. The Reserve Bank Board left interest rates unchanged for the fifth month and there were scant
changes made to the accompanying statement. So it would be surprising if the Board minutes provided much in
the way of new information.

Also on Tuesday CommBank releases its latest indicator of economy-wide sales (Business Sales Indicator) while
the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases data on the imports of goods (merchandise imports). Given
these figures are for the September month, they are one of the timeliest indicators of economic activity. The main
complication is that the weaker Aussie dollar may inflate the estimates of imports, via higher prices.

On Thursday the ABS releases the detailed labour market figures for September. While data on employment by
industry wont be available (the quarterly figures were released last month) there are break-ups on a demographic
and regional basis.

Savanth Sebastian, Economist (Author)

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