NEWS RELEASE

Aboriginal Voter Intentions, March 2010

ABORIGINAL MANITOBANS PREFER THE NDP,

PROVINCIALY AND FEDERALLY
Significant Differences Between First Nations, Métis Voters

Winnipeg – A survey of Manitoba’s Aboriginal voters reveals that indigenous

people within the province overwhelmingly prefer the New Democratic Party at
the provincial level, but spread their support more evenly when voting in federal
elections.

These findings, taken from quarterly surveys by Probe Research Inc. for its
Indigenous Voices syndicated study, reveal that when casting ballots in
provincial elections, nearly six-in-ten Aboriginal Manitobans (57%) back the
governing New Democrats. One-in-five Aboriginal voters (21%) expressed
support for the provincial Liberal Party, while fewer than one-in-five (17%)
indicated they would cast ballots for the Progressive Conservative Party. Fifteen
percent of surveyed Aboriginal adults were unable or unwilling to name a
preferred provincial party.

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 Provincial Party Support - Aboriginal Voters
“If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

60% 57% 2008/09 (n=541)

40%

21%
20% 17%

0%
NDP Liberal PC

Base: All respondents

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While the New Democrats are the top choice among Aboriginal voters, some
key differences emerge when we look at those individuals with different
Aboriginal status. Those with First Nations status are among those most likely to
back the NDP (61%). One-quarter of surveyed First Nations people in Manitoba,
on the other hand, (26%) prefer the Liberals and less than one-in-ten (8%) would
vote for those running under the provincial Progressive Conservative banner.
While the NDP is the preferred party (52%) for fully one-half of Métis voters,
members of this Aboriginal community are more likely to support the PCs (29%)
rather than the Liberal Party (14%).

Provincial Party Support

- By Aboriginal Status -
“If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

Base: All respondents

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As the following table reveals, the provincial NDP is the most popular provincial
party among all Aboriginal sub-populations, with women especially likely to
prefer the NDP (65% versus 50% of men). Wealthier voters are slightly more likely
to prefer the PCs than those with lower-household incomes (26% of those earning
$60,000/year would cast ballots for the Tories, versus just 9% of those earning less
than $30,000), although even among these more affluent citizens, the NDP
remain the party of choice.

PROVINCIAL PARTY STANDINGS

AMONG ABORIGINAL MANITOBANS
-- March 2010 --
Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters
“If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most
likely to support?”
Total Gender Age
Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+
(Base) (541) (264) (277) (147) (249) (115)
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
NDP 57 50 65 53 60 60
Liberal 21 24 17 24 20 20
PC 17 20 14 16 18 16
Others 5 6 3 7 2 4
Education Income
<HS HS College/ University <$30K $30K- $60K+
Trades $59K
(Base) (135) (127) (126) (140) (195) (131) (152)
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
NDP 55 56 59 60 57 59 59
Liberal 28 18 20 16 28 20 13
PC 12 19 17 21 9 16 26
Others 5 7 4 3 6 5 2

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Federal Party Preferences
The NDP is also the most popular federal party among Aboriginal Manitobans,
but its advantage over its rivals is much smaller at the federal level.

More than one-third of decided Aboriginal voters (36%) back the federal New
Democrats under Jack Layton’s leadership. Fully one-third (33%) now support the
Michael Ignatieff-led Liberal Party, while one-quarter (24%) prefer the governing
Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Six percent of
Manitoba’s Aboriginal voters, meanwhile, would cast ballots for Elizabeth May
and the Green Party. Fifteen percent of Aboriginal adults in Manitoba,
meanwhile, could not state or refused to indicate their preferred party in federal
elections.

Federal Party Support - Aboriginal Voters

“If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

60%
2008/09 (n=313)

40% 36%
33%

24%

20%

6%

0%
NDP Liberal Conservative Green Party

Base: All respondents

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An analysis of voter intentions broken down by Aboriginal status reveals more
significant differences than those seen at the provincial level. The federal Liberal
Party is the first choice of those with First Nations status (39% would cast ballots for
the Liberals), followed closely by the NDP (36%). The Conservative Party is
preferred by less than one-in-five voters with First Nations status (18%), while just
four percent back the Green Party.

Though the greatest proportion of Métis voters back the federal NDP (37%), fully
three-in-ten Métis voters (30%) support the federal Conservatives, while one-
quarter (25%) would cast ballots for the Liberals and seven percent expressed
support for the Green Party.

Federal Party Support

- By Aboriginal Status -
“If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

Base: All respondents

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As the following table shows, female Aboriginal voters are much more likely to
vote for the federal NDP (45%, versus 27% of men respectively), while men are
more likely than women to back the Conservatives (30%, versus 17% of women).
Those with higher levels of education are more likely to support the federal NDP
(41% of those with a university degree and 40% of those with college/trades
training, versus 29% of those with a high school education or less). Aboriginal
voters with higher incomes, meanwhile, are slightly more likely to prefer the
federal Conservative party (37% of those earning $60,000/year, versus 18% of
those earning $30,000-$59,999/year and 15% of those earning less than
$30,000/year).

FEDERAL PARTY STANDINGS

AMONG ABORIGINAL MANITOBANS
-- March 2010 --
Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters
“If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most
likely to support?”
Total Gender Age
Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+
(Base) (313) (157) (156) (82)* (153) (68)*
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
NDP 36 27 45 37 38 35
Liberal 33 34 32 30 32 39
Conservative 24 30 17 21 26 17
Green Party 6 7 4 7 4 6
Education Income
<HS HS College/ University <$30K $30K- $60K+
Trades $59K
(Base) (73)* (73)* (76)* (86)* (109) (75)* (96)*
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
NDP 29 36 40 41 45 39 27
Liberal 39 35 29 29 33 39 32
Conservative 25 22 23 25 15 18 37
Green Party 7 5 5 6 7 1 4
*Caution: small base

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Probe Research Inc. interviewed a random and representative sample of self-identified
Aboriginal adults between June 2008 and September 2009. These interviews were conducted
by telephone with all Aboriginal adults in Manitoba given an equal chance to participate in the
survey; however, in order to include on-reserve residents who might not have a residential
telephone in this sampling, some Aboriginal Manitobans were encouraged to contact a toll-
free number to participate in the survey. With a sample of 514 for provincial voting intentions,
one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results among Aboriginal adults are within +/-
4.32 percentage points of what they would have been if all Aboriginal adults in Manitoba had
been contacted. With a sample of 313 for those asked to state their federal voting intentions,
one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results among Aboriginal adults are within +/-
5.54 percentage points of what they would have been if all Aboriginal adults in Manitoba had
been contacted. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population
subgroups. Using Statistics Canada data, quotas and minor statistical weighting were used to
ensure that respondents were representative of the province’s Aboriginal populations.

For more information on this survey, please contact:

Scott MacKay,
President
Probe Research Inc.
Suite 850-125 Garry Street
Winnipeg, Manitoba
R3C 3P2
Tel.: 926-6567
Cell: 955-9777
Fax: 926-6566
E-mail: scott@probe-research.com

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