Presidential Election, 3

In this series, (please see Brazilian Presidential Election, 2010, and Presidential
Election, Part 2) we have looked at the differences in the Brazilian electoral system, as
compared, principally with the US electoral system. We have looked at the population
of likely electors for 2010, the political parties in the dispute, and we have reviewed the
performance of President Lula in 2006, in his victory against Geraldo Alckmin (“PSDB-
SP”) to see where the Workers Party, (“PT”) will probably be placing its emphasis for a
win this year.

To compare the performance of President Lula with that of one of his predecessors who
is of the same political party as José Serra, in this post we look at the regions of the
country where Fernando Henrique Cardoso (“PSDB-SP”) drew his support in the 1998
Presidential Election.

First, it is important to mention that during the era of the 1988 Constitution there have
been five Presidential elections. Those that elected Fernando Collar de Mello, and
President Lula all went to a second round. The two elections where Fernando Henrique
Cardoso (“FHC”) was elected were both first round elections, meaning that he was
elected with 50% of votes cast + 1 on the first ballot. The analysis made of the Lula
election in 2006 was based upon a second round analysis. Therefore, we are to some
extent dealing with elections where the dynamics were different.

Election Result, 1998

Candidate Votes %
Ferdnando Henrique Cardoso 35,922,534 53.06%
Luiz Ignacio Lula de Silva 21,470,326 31.71%
Ciro Gomes 7,424,780 10.97%
Others 2,883,283 4.26%
Total 67.700.923 100.00%

One interesting comparison demonstrating the dynamics of the Brazilian electorate is

that the number of votes cast in the 2006 election where President Lula was re-elected
was 95 .8 million as compared with 67.7 million eight years earlier, a growth of 41%.

The first point to note is the performance of former Governor of Ceará, Ciro Gomes,
who managed to get 34.2% of the vote in his home state, and poll above the 15% mark
in other Northeastern states including Alagoas, Maranhão, Paraíba, Piauí and Rio
Grande do Norte. In the North he also polled above 15% in Amazonas, Amapa and
Roraima. In the Federal District he polled 27.5%. In most of these states he was taking
votes more from the then Candidate Lula than from FHC.

In terms of Other candidates, Eneas Ferreira of São Paulo was the only one to poll
above 500.00 votes, and indeed received 1.45 million, or 2.1% of the vote.

Candidate Lula did not receive 50% of the votes in any State, but came closest in Rio
Grande do Sul (49%), and Rio de Janeiro (42%).
The FHC Vote
The map below shows the 27 Brazilian States, and the percentages polled by FHC. Only
in one State, Ceará, did FHC not attain 40% of the vote, where he was last placed
behind Ciro Gomes and Lula with 30.3% of the vote.

FHC gained more than 50% of the vote in 16 States, shown on the map in yellow (50%
+), Green (60% +) and Blue (70% +). These are no doubt the areas where Serra hopes
to win, and perhaps in São Paulo, with an even larger percentage than FHC. FHC won
59.9% of the vote in his home state of São Paulo, but he was never the Governor or
Mayor of the city of São Paulo, as Serra has been. Thus, we expect Serra to expand
from a very strong base in São Paulo.

With the support of Governor Aecio Neves of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s second largest
State, Serra has a good chance of repeating FHC’s success there (55.7%), even though
Dilma Rousseff, the PT candidate, was born in Minas.

One of the more significant issues that have changed the complexion of Brazilian
Politics since the advent of President Lula, and his popularity is the possibility that the
poorer regions of the country may be more ready to identify with the PT than in
previous elections. Thus, for Serra to repeat FHC’s performance in capturing 50% of the
vote in Bahia (FHC won 50.9%) may be problematic as the North/ South divide in the
nation will probably be more pronounced this year. FHC also managed to win in
Alagoas (54.8%), Rio Grande do Norte (50.7%) and Pernambuco (57.2%) which given
greater polarization, may also be more difficult.
Other Imponderables

What will be the effect of Dilma Rousseff’s many years of residence and political
activity in Rio Grande do Sul? Will she be seen as a favorite daughter? Will the
significant support that FHC received in Mato Grosso (only state where he polled more
than 70%) be transferred to Serra. Will the rest of the North/ Center West, that voted for
FHC, including Mato Groos do Sul, Goias, Tocantins, Roraima and Rondonia still
deliver their 60% + votes, and Amazonia and Para their 50% + votes to Serra.