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possessing a knowledge-based workforce that performs high-technology tasks on a par with the developed world (Emerging Economies
2006). Second, a huge workforce has been unleashed by emerging
economies, which has led to the outsourcing of many routine tasks by
OECD member countries. According to Richard Freeman, an economist at Harvard University, the global workforce had effectively doubled in 2000 due to the influx of labor from China, India, the former
Soviet Union, and other emerging economies (Freeman 2005). These
nouveau entrants also possess a growing army of knowledge-based
workers who will play an important role in the future when emerging
markets cater to their domestic demands in addition to undertaking
larger proportions of knowledge-based tasks from OECD countries.
And third, advances in information and communications technologies
have made remote execution of numerous tasks possible.
All in all, a new global economy has arrived with a global village
of workers catering to the service and technological needs of OECD
countries. The corporate sector in OECD countries has benefited
immensely from outsourcing, even though globalization has had
a negative influence, to some extent, on their domestic workforce.
OECD member countries must embrace widespread innovations to
maintain a high perch in the economic pecking order.
Many now agree that the phenomenon of global warming has been
scientifically established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). This assessment has created an impetus to make innovations in greening the global economy. Thus the advent of both
globalization and climate change during this century has made innovation still more important as an engine of growth for rich economies
of the developed world.
Hence the precise measurement of innovations is useful and perhaps even imperative for assessing the well-being of rich economies
in the twenty-first century (Rao 2007). In fact, accurate quantification
of innovations could also aid in trading this intangible commodity
through suitable derivative securities (Rao et al. 2008). The thrust to
quantify innovations has culminated recently with the U.S. Department of Commerce (2008) encouraging various segments of its society
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to their viability for use in the real world. The framework proposed
below attempts to deal with the many uncertainites in scoring an
intangible attribute.
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Table 1
Characteristic
Bin
(j)
No. (i)
Variable (Xi)
1
2
X1
X2
1
1
X3
X4
X5
X6
X7
No. (i)
8
10
Variable
(Xi)
X8
X9
X10
Type
Characteristic
Outsourced
Not outsourced
Academia
National labs
Private Sector
Development Level
High
2
3
11
12
13
14
X11
X12
X13
X14
Medium
Low
Development Level
High
Medium
3
1
Low
Patents
2
3
1
Publications
Other sources
Prestigious award
2
3
1
An award
No award
Suitable
Not suitable
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this regard, the pharmaceutical industry, for example, would have a
direct impact on the sick populace of a nation. Another example of a
commercial activity making a direct societal impact through its innovations is the mobile-phone industry. Among its myriad benefits,
mobile telephony has influenced economic growth in ways ranging
from aiding mundane fishermen in locating the best markets for their
catch to people doing sophisticated financial transactions with their
banks. In contrast, the benevolent effects of innovations in the communications and information technology areas will be felt indirectly
through better infrastructure, improved services, and other advantages. Thus, variable X2 will assign points based on the viability of an
innovation for practical use. This effort will equate X2 to the potential
number of end users. It should be predicted from statistical regression
techniques applied to historical data sets. Many commercial setups
routinely conduct reliable forecasts of potential end users, which is
critical for their business needs. Such estimates, where availablee.g.,
from the pharmaceutical and mobile-telephony sectorsshould be
utilized because of their accuracy. In their absence, requisite regression analyses should be carried out to procure the numbers for X2 in
various application areas. (Even though X2 is an independent input
variable for the intuitive-scorecard approach described in the next
section, it is the dependent variablethe unknown one we seekin
the regression-based approaches.
Time Required for Fruition (X3)
This variable is equated to the time it takes to realize an innovative
product. It consists of the actual time consumed in transforming a
creative idea to reality and the time to secure a legal covenant, such
as a patent, for the resulting creative product. The time to secure the
legal documentation is important because an innovative idea is scored
only at the successful conclusion of its documentation process. Thus,
for products involving large cycle times, such as pharmaceuticals, X3
will be large due to longer periods required for research and clinicaltrail activities, unforeseen disruptions to the discovery process, and
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of skill levels is also crucial to kindling the fire of knowledge among
the populace and creating an awareness of innovations in mundane
and specialized fields of study.
Employment and Learning Opportunities for Society (X6)
This variable should be set up to record the employment opportunities
as well as learning opportunities created by individual innovations.
The variable X6 is the sum of two separate components. The first
component would account for the workers who potentially would
be employed, with the second component tallying those individuals
who would acquire new skills or knowledge due to an innovation. It
should be noted that this variable is not the same as X2, outlined in
a previous section, which tracks the usefulness of the end product
of an innovative idea. The creation of this variable would facilitate
efforts to tackle unemployment and some of the negative effects of
globalization by using the innovative activities of a rich economy.
Organizational Approach (X7)
This variable measures the ability of a parent organization to foster
an environment that is conducive to creative activities. Numbers for
this parameter could be obtained from employee surveys until more
accurate methods are established. Therefore this variable should be
equated to the number of respondents of the total workforce affirming the creative culture of the concerned organization.
Outsourcing of Innovative Work (X8)
In this era of globalization, companies and other institutions based
in rich nations tend to outsource some of their innovative activities
to subsidiaries in emerging economies. Consequently any nation
encouraging more innovations in-house would benefit immensely
through the jobs and knowledge created and lodged within its boundaries. Accordingly, this variable assigns a higher number to indigenous
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rates. Contrasted with X9 for geographic regions, this variable could
be utilized to monitor the level of innovation across various fields of
study, which could aid efforts to encourage creative output in both
scientific and nonscientific fields of study.
Type of Legal Documentation (X12)
The inherent rigors of the patent process merit a higher number for
ideas that are patented as opposed to being documented in publications. Accordingly this effort would support awarding numbers, in
descending order, to patents, refereed publications, and other sources.
As usual, publications referred to here include refereed journal articles
and reports and dissertations printed by academia and national centers
and laboratories. This factor, while tracking creative ideas possessing
intellectual rights, could be used in endeavors for detecting the double
count of innovations.
Awards for Innovations (X13)
Some of the innovations will receive prestigious awards for their
contributions to a particular field or for addressing societal issues.
Such innovations could be boosted further in their scores through
variable X13.
Safeguarding the Legal Covenant (X14)
This variable characterizes the tendency of the inventor, be it an organization or an individual user, to block the use of the innovation by
other suitable users for a considerable duration of time. The protection
of intellectual property rights is significant to commercial entities,
be it the pharmaceutical sector with longer gestation periods for their
drugs or the aggressive innovative environment prevalent in the mobiletelephony sector. Although individual inventors should be rewarded
by the free-market system for innovations having a positive societal
impact, they should also be reined in from their urge to hoard on their
discoveries. Thus X14 would grant a higher number to innovations
whose inventors agree to release their patents in due course of time.
Intuitive-Scorecard Approach
This method has been used extensively in the financial services industry to quantify the credit risk of pools of clients (see, for example,
Rudd 2000). Its popularity stems from the simplicity of setting it up
and the ability to score applications according to a standard set of
points. As far as innovations are concerned, some or all of the inde-
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pendent variables described above could be collected together. Despite
its subjective nature, the intuitive scorecard approach would require
official bodies to set the proper scores for the various categories. The
development of regression-based models, described in the next subsection, could be used by such official bodies to set the reference scores,
thereby standardizing the approach and adding rigor to it
A sample intuitive scorecard for the pharmaceutical sector is shown
by Table 3. It pertains to a new drug whose discovery by a major drug
company has been protected by intellectual rights granted through a
patent conferred recently. This scorecard is based on some of the variables from Table 1, whose values, as mentioned earlier, can be readily
characterized. The sixth column of Table 3 lists the intuitive weights
assigned to the various classification bins, with the last column presenting the corresponding scores for the pharmaceutical innovation. Individual scores in the last column correspond to the value of a variable
falling in the appropriate numeric range. These numbers add up to
an IS of 550, as shown by the last row of Table 3, for our new drug. As
touched upon earlier, our new drug can obtain a maximum score of
1,000. It should be noted that the numbers appearing in Table 3 are
not real. Even the numbers of bins, ranges of variables, and intuitive
weights displayed have been created to replicate the pharmaceutical
sector as closely as possible in accordance with PhRMA (2006). This
sample scorecard has been presented to illustrate the simplicity of
the approach.
Regression Approach
The use of statistical techniques (Montgomery and Runger 2003;
Neter et al. 1993) could overcome the subjectivity of scorecards. As
opposed to intuitive scoring, statistical techniques could be applied
to innovation data archived by professional bodies like the USPTO for
a more precise estimation of IS. In particular, a statistical technique
known as regression can be utilized to estimate the relation or trend
existing between a measure like IS and a data set of past innovations.
For example, a trend between certain kinds of innovations and the
No. (i)
Variable
(Xi)
X1
X2
Characteristic
Impact within a
field
Bin
(j)
X3
X4
Capital consumed
X5
Score
200
> 100
200
100
100
< 100
60
200
100
0.5 billion1
billion users
< 0.5 billion
users
15 years
510 years
100
1015 years
200
> $1 billion
200
$0.5 billion$1
billion
< $0.5 billion
100
3
5
Intuitive
Weight
3
3
Variable
Range
50
50
100
100
60
1030%
40
3050%
100
> 50%
200
50
100
550
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finance. This is possible because of the huge computational power
unleashed by advancement in computer technology. An AI technique
that has found widespread applications in pattern recognition, signal
processing, and financial market analysis is neural networks. Neuralnetwork models mimic the massive processing capabilities of the
living brain wherein a three-dimensional network of neurons carries
out complex tasks (for example, Haykin 1999).
This is a far more complex way of modeling a score of a nations
innovation. But it will enable researchers to estimate the more complex relationship among varieies of innovations. It is still in the early
stages of development. Last but not least, the regression- and AI-based
techniques require empirical data sets for the independent and dependent variables. High-quality databases are critical for building an
accurate model whose predictions are reliable. Ideally, organizations
such as the USPTO and institutions concerned with other sources of
innovations must further develop these databases.
This effort has summarized some of the concepts underlying the quantification and measure of innovations. Besides identifying innovations
that are potential candidates for scoring, this work has also described
the independent variables needed for quantifying innovations. Clearly,
there is still much work to do. But we have a solid beginning.
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