J Mater Cycles Waste Manag (2009) 11:110122

DOI 10.1007/s10163-008-0233-1

SPECIAL FEATURE: ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Springer 2009

Solid Waste Management in Asia and Pacific Islands 1

Yu-Chi Weng Takeshi Fujiwara Yuzuru Matsuoka

Municipal solid waste management and short-term projection of the waste

discard levels in Taiwan

Received: May 12, 2008 / Accepted: November 23, 2008

Introduction

nomic growth in the past few decades by shifting the economic structure from the agriculture sector to the industrial
and service sectors. Additionally, there was liberalization in
the social and political environment after the abrogation of
martial law in 1987. Industrialization and urbanization diffused rapidly throughout Taiwan, causing dramatic changes
in lifestyle and consumer behavior.
Some socioeconomic indices in terms of lifestyle changes
are examined. The official database1 was used for analysis
of the period from 1984 to 2005, and the indices analyzed
in this study are described in Table 1. Figure 1 demonstrates
the normalized trends of these indices, and the high correlation coefficients (see Table 2) among the indices confirm
their intrinsic interaction, which may result from the similarities in overall lifestyle. Such evolution may be regarded
as a characteristic of a developing country. Figure 2 shows
the time series data of per capita consumption expenditure
by category from 1984 to 2005; all the consumption expenditures changed significantly with changes in lifestyle.
However, as recent studies have indicated, this rapidly
increasing production and consumption may not be happening in a sustainable way and is likely to lead to global
environmental problems.25 The consumer behavior originating from the contemporary lifestyle has a great potential
for increasing environmental loads, particularly municipal
solid waste (MSW) generation and discard.69 In this study,
MSW discards is defined as the amount of MSW generation
that will be regularly collected and treated by the local
municipalities.

Taiwan is a small island with limited natural resources, but

has one of the highest population densities in the world
(634 people/km2).1 Taiwan has achieved significant eco-

The situation of MSW discards and treatment

in Taiwan

Abstract Industrialization and urbanization result in significant changes in lifestyle. These lifestyle changes seem to
lead to unsustainable consumption patterns and increase
the generation of various kinds of environmental loads,
especially the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW).
Taiwan is a small island with scarce natural resources. The
economic development in Taiwan has resulted in the generation of large amounts of MSW. As a result, the Taiwan
Environmental Pollution Administration (TEPA) has produced regulations for waste minimization and has imposed
several important policy measures that have successfully
reduced the MSW discard rate in recent years and have
established a public recycling network as a part of the MSW
collection. Nowadays, the objective of the MSW policies in
Taiwan is to develop a zero-waste society. This article
aims to review the MSW management progress in Taiwan
and to project future MSW discards up to 2011 based on
the national plan and assumed scenarios for socioeconomic
variables. According to the analysis results, a more sustainable consumption pattern can be proposed and the corresponding MSW management system can be planned so as
to develop a low-waste-discard society.
Key words Municipal solid waste management Developing country Changes in lifestyle Consumer behavior
Econometric modeling

Y.-C. Weng (*) Y. Matsuoka

Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Kyoto
University, Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
Tel. and Fax: +81-86-251-8994
e-mail: yev73001@cc.okayama-u.ac.jp
T. Fujiwara
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University,
Okayama, Japan

As the socioeconomic environment changes, the MSW generation rate also changes to a great extent. In this study,
MSW is classified into eight categories by physical property
for treatment and final disposal planning. Since the MSW
composition analysis was conducted on a dry basis before
2004, the moisture of waste is separated and taken as a
single category (however, the analysis changed to a wet

111
Table 1. Description of the representative indices related to changes in lifestyle in Taiwan
Index

Description

Unit

Poput
Hhldt
Hlbrrt
Hpopt
Aveaget
Hun15rt
Hov65rt
SFt
WKt
Ginit
Engelt
Unempt
Savingt

The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The

Capita
Household
%
Capita
Years
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

total population in year t

number of households in year t
proportion of employees among household members in year t
household size in year t
average age of the population in year t
proportion of younger people (under 15 years) in the overall population in year t
proportion of the older people (above 65 years) in the overall population in year t
ratio of families in which the number of persons per household is less than five in year t
percentage of women in the labor force in year t
Gini coefficient (an indicator for the income lag between the poor and the rich) in year t
Engel ratio in year t
ratio of the unempolyment in the labor force in year t
saving rate of disposable expenditure in year t

Table 2. Correlation matrix of the representative indices related to changes in lifestyle

Hhldt
Hpopt
Hlbrrt
Aveaget
Hun15rt
Hov65rt
SFt
WKt
Ginit
Engelt
Unempt
Savingt

Hhldt

Hpopt

Hlbrrt

Aveaget

Hun15rt

Hov65rt

SFt

WKt

Ginit

Engelt

Unempt

Savingt

1.000*
0.995*
0.995*
0.975*
0.993*
0.998*
0.997*
0.985*
0.943*
0.955*
0.962*
0.664*

0.995*
1.000*
0.994*
0.971*
0.997*
0.998*
0.996*
0.974*
0.962*
0.959*
0.942*
0.722*

0.995*
0.994*
1.000*
0.980*
0.988*
0.994*
0.997*
0.988*
0.938*
0.957*
0.967*
0.661*

0.975*
0.971*
0.980*
1.000*
0.971*
0.977*
0.979*
0.979*
0.944*
0.931*
0.951*
0.616*

0.993
0.997
0.988
0.971
1.000
0.996
0.994
0.971
0.967
0.958
0.934
0.723*

0.998*
0.998*
0.994*
0.977*
0.996*
1.000*
0.998*
0.978*
0.955*
0.949*
0.953*
0.692*

0.997*
0.996*
0.997*
0.979*
0.994*
0.998
1.000*
0.980*
0.946*
0.953*
0.964*
0.681*

0.985*
0.974*
0.988*
0.979*
0.971*
0.978*
0.980*
1.000*
0.909*
0.940*
0.969*
0.567*

0.943*
0.962*
0.938*
0.944*
0.967*
0.955*
0.946*
0.909*
1.000*
0.931*
0.839*
0.813*

0.955*
0.959*
0.957*
0.931*
0.958*
0.949*
0.953*
0.940*
0.931*
1.000*
0.907*
0.736*

0.962*
0.942*
0.967*
0.951*
0.934*
0.953*
0.964*
0.969*
0.839*
0.907*
1.000*
0.498

0.664*
0.722*
0.661*
0.616*
0.723*
0.692*
0.681*
0.567*
0.813*
0.736*
0.498
1.000

* Correlation is significant at the 1% level (two-tailed)

Fig. 1. Normalized time series

data of the variables associated
with the changes in lifestyle from
1984 to 2005 (see Table 1 or the
definitions of the variables).
Note: calculation of
normalization for a seriex Xi:
X X
Zi = i
Sx
where Zi is the normalized value;
Xi is the original series; X is the
mean of the series Xi; Sx is the
standard deriation of the series
Xi

3
Poput
Aveaget

Hhldt
Hlbrrt
1

Hpopt
Hun15rt
Hov65rt

SFt
WKt
-1

Ginit
Engelt
Unempt

-2

Savingt
-3
1984

1987

1990

basis in 2005). Based on such classification, essential information can be obtained for designing recycling, treatment,
and disposal plans.
Figure 3 illustrates the official records of the composition
of discarded MSW in Taiwan. The dataset covers the period
19922004, whereas per capita overall MSW discard levels,
which denote the overall amount of discard for all the waste

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

fractions, are available from 1988 to 2006.10 In Fig. 3, a declining trend can be observed in overall per capita MSW discard
levels in recent years due to MSW policy interventions.
Considering the changing lifestyle in Taiwan, the Taiwan
Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA) and its
previous administrations have executed several countermeasures to control the rapidly growing solid waste discard

112
250,000

Annual per capita consumption

expenditure (Taiwan dollar at 2001
prices)

Fig. 2. Annual per capita

consumption expenditure in
Taiwan: 19842005

Annual per capita overall MSW discard (kg)

Amusement and
education

200,000

Transportation and
communication
Medicines and
medical care

150,000

Household
appliances

100,000

Housing
Clothing

50,000

Food
0
1984

Fig. 3. Trends in per capita

municipal solid waste (MSW)
discards in Taiwan (on a dry
basis): 19922004

Miscellaneous

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

500
Miscellaneousincombustible
Miscellaneouscombustible
Moisture

400

Food

300

Glass
Metal
200
Plastics
Paper
100

0
1992

1994

from both households and industries since 1974.11 In 1987

TEPA was promoted as an independent administrative
department in charge of environmental affairs, and more
specific waste regulations were set up afterward. At the
beginning, TEPA cooperated with the municipalities to
establish the MSW collection, treatment, and disposal
system. Subsequently, the MSW collection rate, representing the proportion of the MSW collected by the local municipalities, has been boosted to more than 95% since 1990.
Meanwhile, the MSW disposal rate, representing the proportion of MSW undergoing recycling, treatment, and disposal by the municipalities, improved notably from 2.55%
(1984) to 90.17% (2000), and to more than 95% since 2002.10
To date, landfilling and incineration have been the main
options for intermediate treatment technologies in Taiwan:
163 landfill sites and 22 incinerators are in operation12,13
(basic information is shown in Table 3).
In the past, the people of Taiwan were not aware of
waste problems. Almost all waste was dumped directly into
landfill sites without proper separation. By the 1980s, some
landfill sites were completely filled, and some cities did not
even have a place to temporarily dump MSW. At that time,
TEPA adopted incineration as the treatment approach
instead of landfilling due to the limited land resources in

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Table 3. Basic information of the major municipal solid waste (MSW)

intermediate treatment and final disposal facilities in Taiwan
Type

Number

Design capacity
(tonnes/year)

Throughput in 2006
(tonnes/year)

Landfill site
Incinerator

163
22

7 672 500a

864 354
4 163 968

The operation period was assumed to be 330 days per year

Taiwan. The first incinerator was operated in 1992, and

most incinerators planned by TEPA were in operation
during the period from 1998 to 2001, following which, they
handled more than 45% of MSW. Figure 4 depicts the share
of MSW undergoing intermediate treatment and disposal
(at landfills, incinerators, dumping, and other disposal sites).
Furthermore, the national environmental plan aimed at
treating 80% of MSW by incineration in 2006.14 In fact the
fraction of MSW treated by incineration exceeded the
target value (82.79%) of the plan. In 2007, a new regulation
ordered that combustible waste not be dumped in landfills
until it is incinerated so as to improve recycling activities
and to reduce MSW volume.11
However, another potential risk arose since some incinerators are operated with insufficient feed because the

113

100%

The share of the MSW treated by

intermediate treatment and final disposal
facilities (%)

Fig. 4. The share of discarded

MSW handled by intermediate
treatment and final disposal
facilities: 19902006

Others
80%

Dumping

60%

General
landfilling
Sanitary
landfilling

40%

Incineration

20%

0%
1990

1992

incinerators are distributed inadequately. The actual MSW

throughput of the incinerators is still less than the design
capacity (see Table 3). Thus, a regional MSW transportation and treatment network will have to be built soon.

Review of MSW management policies in Taiwan

According to the supportive regulations, several administrative projects using economic instruments have played
important roles in controlling MSW generation.1517 The
MSW policy measures based on the polluter pays principle can be categorized into three types: the command and
control type, the economic instrument type (e.g., subsidies,
taxes, charges, and deposits), and the mixed type. Primarily,
the MSW management system in Taiwan is designed based
on the 3R principle (reduce, reuse, and recycle). Meanwhile, since land resources are limited, it was inevitable that
incineration would be adopted as the main intermediate
treatment technology. Meanwhile, the not in my backyard phenomenon has occurred. Many protests against the
construction of landfills and incinerators were held due to
concerns about the potential health risks from the MSW
intermediate treatment and final disposal facilities, especially those relating to incinerators. In order to prevent
dioxin emissions from the incinerators, TEPA imparted
extensive social education to the citizens regarding the
importance of reducing the moisture content of wastes and
of conducting MSW separation. MSW policy measures in
Taiwan can be classified into those at the national level and
those at the city level.
City-level policy measures
The first important MSW elimination project, Keep Trash
off the Ground, was implemented in Taipei city in 1995, and
this project nowadays has been extended to the majority of
urban areas in Taiwan. This policy stipulates that citizens
cannot directly dump their waste at collection sites; instead,
the residents have to hand their waste to workers using col-

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

lection trucks. This measure successfully eliminated the

leachate draining away from MSW during the collection
process. In addition, if citizens mishandle the waste for the
collection cargos, they have to keep the waste in their house.
To a certain extent, households have to reduce the amount
of waste discarded. However, this project requires an enormous administrative budget to sustain its performance;
therefore, it is implemented only within the major urban
areas.
Local municipalities also started to decrease the MSW
collection frequency and to impose MSW treatment charges
in different ways in different cities. For example, Taipei city
started to charge a MSW treatment fee for standardized
collection bags from 2000, whereas some local municipalities charge a MSW treatment fee based on the fee for
household water usage. Fourteen counties even started to
recycle used plastic bags within the MSW collection system
from 2006. In addition, nongovernmental groups play an
important role in local recycling programs.

National-level policy measures

The Resource Recycling Four-in-One Project was launched
in 1998. This first national-level project not only improved
waste recycling networks but also aroused public concern
over issues related to MSW. In order to control the potential dioxin emission from incinerators, in 2002, TEPA
started limiting the use of plastic bags and some plastic
products (the Restrictions on the Use of Plastics Bags
project).
In 2004, the Review and Prospect of Solid Waste Treatment project set the ultimate goal of the MSW management
system as promoting a zero-waste society, highlighting
the importance of waste reduction. Hence, the municipalities have to promote environmental education to facilitate
the current consumption pattern and to encourage reuse
along with the other recycling activities, i.e., to change peoples lifestyle. Also, in 2004 TEPA imposed stricter classification standards (the Mandatory Recycling of MSW project)
for MSW collection in Taipei city and extended this regula-

114

tion to major metropolitan areas in 2005; food waste and

potential resources in MSW had to be collected separately
from the MSW discards. Moreover, waste food oil was designated a recyclable material from the end of 2007.
Tables 4 and 5 summarize the important regulations and
administrative projects pertaining to MSW management in
Taiwan. Moreover, frontier regulations and projects are
being launched. Mainly, MSW policy measures are designed
to improve 3R activities, especially recycling, by designating
several kinds of mandatory recyclable materials. The
municipalities are responsible for the recycling activities.

Such efforts can be revealed through the increasing trend

of the recycling rate, which denotes the proportion of
overall recycled MSW within the total MSW generated (see
Fig. 5). The command and control type of policy measures
seem to work well, and the annual per capita MSW generation has continued to fall (see Fig. 3).
The national environmental plan14 has set up several
target values for MSW management (see Table 6). In order
to achieve the ultimate goal of developing a zero-waste
society, promoting the recycling rate of potential resources
and reducing excess utilization of plastics are the short-term

Table 4. Major regulations relating to MSW management in Taiwan11,17

Law

Supplemental regulation

Waste Clean-up
Act

Charge of clean-up and

treatment charge for MSW
Recycle, clean-up, and
treatment of MSW
Recycling general waste
items by implementation
agency
Management criteria for
public landfill facilities

Effective date

Brief description

26/07/1974

The first law for solid waste management in Taiwan.

Gives a fundamental definition of solid waste and its categories.
Clarifies the obligations and responsibilities of waste management
affairs
Orders the charge for MSW treatment to citizens on the basis of
the polluter pays principle
Orders the classification, collection, treatment technology, and
treatment facilities for waste recycling issues
Designates potential resource items that should be collected by
the local government

31/07/1991
23/04/1997
17/04/2006

01/01/2007
11/12/2002

Environmental
Fundamental
Law
Resource Reuse
and Recycling
Act

03/07/2002

Restrictions of product
overpackaging

01/07/2006

Orders combustible MSW not be dumped in landfill sites until it

has been incinerated
Provides a fundamental law for sustainable development.
Promotes green consumption, recycling, reuse, life-cycle analysis
of products, and clean production in waste management systems
Provides the definitions of recycling items and fundamental
principles.
Clarifies the obligation and responsibilities of the recycling of
goods
Restricts the size and weight of specific commodities including:
cookies, cosmetics, wine, drinks, refined foods, packaged goods,
and present boxes among others

Table 5. Major administrative measures relating to MSW management in Taiwan11,17

Project

Duration

Brief description

Keeping trash off the

ground

1995 to date (first officially

adopted by local
municipalities)
01/1997 to date

Stops the use of cargo for fixed point waste collection; instead, the
households have to directly dump their waste in the collection truck.
Bans temporary dumping at the collection sites
Builds an integrated recycling network among citizens (community), private
recycle companies (the recycling industry), local government, and the
recycling foundation.
Improves the business value of reuse, recycling, and treatment
Imposes restrictions on the utilization of packaging and tableware that are
composed of Styrofoam and plastics
Examines the previous solid waste generation trends and treatment capacity.
Proposes the zero-disposal society as the final goal of the solid waste
policy
Orders that households have to make a strict classification of waste before
collection by the local government.
Categorizes items that can be sorted, including the following:
(a) Combustible general waste
(b) Food waste
(c) Waste of potential resources
(d) Furniture and waste of large size
Recycles plastic bags with the MSW collection system in 14 major counties

Resource recycling
four-in-one project

Restrictions on the use

of plastics bags
Review and prospect
of solid waste
treatment
Mandatory recycling
of MSW

01/07/2002 to date

Recycling of general
plastic bags
Recycling of waste
food oil

05/2006 to date

12/2004 to date

01/2005 to date

09/2007 to date

Includes waste food oil as one item on the mandatory recycle substance
list for specific food and service companies.
Encourages households to collect waste oil that is used in making food and
uses it as a raw material in the biofuel production industry

115

objective, as shown in Tables 46. In the following section,

a short-term projection of MSW discard levels will be conducted to assess the evolution of future changes on the basis
of the targets of the national environmental plan.

Short-term projection of MSW discard levels and

policy implication
MSW discard estimation model system
In order to estimate MSW discard levels on a national scale
by waste fraction, the authors have proposed the MSW
discard estimation model system (called the estimation
model system) in previous works.18,19 In this study, for the
purpose of projecting future MSW discard levels, the consumption forecasting model composed of a macroeconometric model is newly established in support of the
Table 6. The short-term policy targets for MSW management14
Index

Target year

MSW Recycling rate (%)

MSW disposal rate (%)
Incineration rate (%)
a

1996

2001

2006

2011

7
80
19.52

25
85
70

45
90a
80a

50
90
80

Denotes that the target value was achieved in the scheduled year
60

National target value in 2011

Recycling rate (%)

50

40

30

National target value in 2006

National target value in 2001

20

10

National target value in 1996

0
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Fig. 5. Historical trend of the recycling rate in Taiwan: 19902006

Fig. 6. Flow diagram of the
model estimation system of
MSW discards

estimation model system, and the short-term projection of

the annual per capita MSW discards for Taiwan is conducted based on three future scenarios.
The projection model system is made up of the consumer
behavior model (layers 2 and 3), the MSW discard model
(layer 4), and the newly established consumption forecasting model (layer 1) (see Fig. 6). In this section, the consumption forecasting model and short-term future scenarios
are described after the explanation of the consumer behavior model and MSW discard model in the estimation model
system.

The consumer behavior model

The estimation model system is constructed by assuming
that MSW discard levels are primarily influenced by the
individuals consumption as well as governmental policy
measures.19 Hence, the estimation model system simulates
MSW discard by waste fraction based on the consumption
expenditure and MSW policy interventions.
The estimation model system is constructed by using
econometric modeling approaches,2022 including the linear
expenditure system (LES) model in layer 2, the multinomial
logit (MNL) model in layer 3, and the multiequation regression model in layer 4 [the simultaneous equation system
(SES) model).
First, per capita consumption expenditure is used as the
input of the consumer behavior model and is hierarchically
analyzed by the LES model and the MNL model with regard
to the categories and subcategories of the consumption
expenditure. The LES model is used in the development of
the first layer of the consumer behavior model to analyze the
consumers preference among the categories of consumption expenditure. In the LES model, each equation is developed to present the behavior of the distribution of the
consumption expenditure for one category. The equations
make up an equation system and are solved simultaneously.
The overall per capita consumption expenditure and the
socioeconomic indices reflecting changes in lifestyle play the
role of the exogenous variables. Here, the exogenous variables are those determined outside the equation system in
the econometric modeling. On the other hand, the consumption expenditures for the categories are determined within
the equation system and are called endogenous variables.
Macro-economic indicators

Food

Housing

Clothing

Layer 2

Consumers behavior model I

(Linear expenditure system)

...

Layer 3

Expenditure
Subcategories
MSW policy
variables

Consumption forecasting model

(Single-equation regression)

Individuals consumption expenditure

Socioeconomic
indicators
Expenditure
Categories

Layer 1

Layer 4

Food
waste

Paper
waste

Plastic
waste

Metal
waste

Consumers behavior model II

(Multinomial logit model)
MSW discard model
(Simultaneous equation system)

116

In the LES model, an individual spends to maximize

his/her utility with his/her budget constraint. In addition,
the LES model assumes that a consumers demand is divided
into the subsistence level and the nonsubsistence level
(requirement exceeding basic needs), which implies that the
consumers will choose what they desire to have after deducting the minimum subsistence value from their consumption
expenditure. Thus the consumers behavior is depicted in
detail. Furthermore, this study assumes that the minimum
subsistence level under each category is influenced by socioeconomic variables in terms of changes in lifestyle. In this
study, the LES model can be formulated as:

expenditure; vt denotes the column vectors of the explanatory variables that reflect the socioeconomic situation, e.g.,
the household attributes and the socioeconomic indices;
and bij is the column vector of the parameters.
Hov65rt and Savingt are used as the explanatory variables
in the case study for Taiwan in the MNL model. The parameters were estimated for the period from 1984 to 2003,
and the models were validated for the period from 2004 to
2005. Therefore, consumer behavior for the subcategories
of the consumption expenditure could be obtained.

ci ,t = ci ,t + i PConst c j ,t
j

and

The MSW discard model

ci ,t = bi + bik vk ,t

(1)

(2)

where ci,t is the amount of annual per capita consumption

expenditure for the ith category in year t, including food,
clothing, housing, household appliance, medicines and
medical care, transportation and communication, amusement and education, and miscellaneous items; ci,t or cj,t is
the subsistence (or minimum required) amount of consumption of the ith or jth category in year t; i is interpreted
as the marginal budget share of each expenditure category
with the constraint i = 1; PConst is the amount of overall
i

annual per capita consumption expenditure in year t; vk,t

denotes the socioeconomic variable related to the changes
in lifestyle in year t; and bi and bik are parameters.
The ratio of older people in the population (Hov65rt)
and the saving rate (Savingt) are used as the explanatory
variables in the case study for Taiwan in the LES model.
The parameters were estimated during the period from
1984 to 2003, and the LES model was validated for the
period from 2004 to 2005.
The values of marginal budget share of the consumption
expenditure categories depict a detailed structure of consumer preferences that result from the contemporary lifestyle. The categories of housing, medical and health services,
and amusement and education have large values of marginal budget share, implying that the categories make up
the higher priorities in the distribution of the nonsubsistence level for the individuals consumption expenditure
during the period.
Subsequently, the outcomes of the LES model are used
as the input of the next model. At this stage, a general type
of discrete choiceexperiment model, the MNL model, is
applied to simulate the distribution of an individuals expenditure under one category into its subcategories, and is formulated as follows:
prob ( ij ,t ) =

exp (vtT b ij )
cij ,t
=
cij,t exp (vtT bij )
j

(3)

where prob(yij,t) denotes the probability for spending consumption expenditure on the jth subcategory in the ith category in year t; j is the label of subcategories of consumption

Previous modules have established the quantitative relationship between the consumption expenditure and socioeconomic variables hierarchically. Thus, the estimated
consumption items serve as the input of the MSW discard
model.18 The MSW discard model is constructed by using
the SES model approach. Per capita MSW discard by waste
fraction is assumed to be a linear function of the consumption variables and MSW policy variables. The equations for
MSW fractions are formulated as follows:
WEm,t = a m + slT,t d l + zk ,tT z k

(4)

where WEm,t is the set of the levels of MSW discards for

fraction m in year t; sl,t is the column vector for consumption
variables composed of an individuals consumption expenditure by category and subcategory in year t; zk,t is the
column vector of policy variables, including dummy or continuous variables; and am, dl, and zk are the column vectors
of the parameters.
The parameters were estimated for the period from 1992
to 2004, and the model was validated for the period from
2005 to 2006. Table 7 provides a description of the variables
in the MSW discard model. The model fitting results and the
model validation are evaluated by the overall per capita
MSW discard for all waste fractions. The results indicate that
the MSW discard model quantitatively defines the relationship among MSW discards by waste fraction, consumption
variables, and the relevant MSW policy variables. The MSW
discard model also estimates the impacts of these factors on
the respective MSW discard level. Detailed descriptions
regarding the fitting process of the consumer behavior model
as well as the MSW discard model in the Taiwanese case
study are given in earlier published studies.18,19

The consumption forecasting model

In order to estimate future MSW discard levels, the consumption forecasting model is introduced to the projection
system in this study and serves as the first-layer model for
the estimation model system (see Fig. 6). Considering
econometric modeling approaches, the forecasting model is
composed of a single-equation regression model. Initially,
annual per capita consumption expenditure is estimated by
using macroeconomic variables and the variables related to
the changes in lifestyle within the consumption forecasting

117
Table 7. Descriptions of variables used in the development of the MSW discard model
Variable

Description

Unit

WEi,t
WEm,t

Annual per capita MSW discards by eight categories in year t.

m = paper, plastics, food, moisture, miscellaneous combustible items
(abbreviated as mis-c), metal, glass, and miscellaneous incombustible items
(abbreviated as mis-inc)
Annual per capita consumption expenditure in year t
Annual per capita consumption expenditure on food and amusement and
education, respectively, in year t
The summation of Fdt (food) and AEt (amusement and education) in year t
Annual per capita consumption expenditure on subcategory j, food, in year t
Annual per capita consumption expenditure on subcategory j, household
appliances, in year t
The summation of Fd4,t (miscellaneous food commodities), Fd6,t (beverages),
HA1,t (furniture), and HA3,t (household durable equipment) in year t
Dummy variable for the Resource Recycling Four-in-One Project: before 1997,
the value is zero, and is 1 otherwise
Dummy variable for the Restrictions on the Use of Plastics Bags: before 2001,
the value is zero, and is 1 otherwise
Dummy variable for the Mandatory Household Classification and Food Waste
Recycling imposed in Taipei city: before 2003, the value is zero, and is 1
otherwise
The fraction of MSW discards treated by incinerators in year t, a continuous
variable
The recycled fraction of MSW generation in year t, a continuous variable

kg

PConst
Fdt, AEt
FAEt
Fdj,t
HAj,t
MISt
Dum1
Dum2
Dum3
Incit
Recyt

Taiwan dollars (NT$) at 2001 prices

NT$ at 2001 prices
NT$ at 2001 prices
NT$ at 2001 prices
NT$ at 2001 prices
NT$ at 2001 prices
none
none
none

%
%

Considering that policy measures are often launched 1 year earlier for some example areas, the setting of validating dummy variables are 1 year
before the formal year of introduction

model. Per capita consumption expenditure is assumed to

be a function of the macroeconomic and socioeconomic
indices:
PConst = f ( xt ,vt , PConst 1 )

(5)

where PConst is the vector of annual per capita consumption expenditure in year t, in 104 Taiwan dollar (NT$) at
2001 prices; PConst1 is the one-year lag term of PConst; f
() is the consumption function; and xt and vt denote the
vectors of macroeconomic variables and socioeconomic
variables in year t, respectively.
This study assumes a linear relationship between per
capita consumption expenditure and the explanatory variables. The parameters were estimated for the period from
1984 to 2003 and the model was validated for the period
from 2004 to 2005. Equation 6 presents the model fitting
results using the ordinary least-squares method (the value
in the parenthesis denotes the t statistics):
PConst = 0.209 PGDPt + 0.550 PConst -1
( 4.57 )

( 4.74 )

0.187 Unempt
( 2.35)

(6)

R 2 = 0.996, DW = 1.42, MAPE1984 2003 = 1.56%,

MAPE 2004 2005 = 2.09%
where Unempt is the unemployed rate (%) and PGDPt is
the per capita gross domestic product (104 NT$ at 2001
prices); DW is the Durbin-Watson statistic; MAPE is the
mean absolute percent error.
The results of the consumption forecast model indicate
that the current consumption is influenced by the current
income level, the past consumption level (representing the
individuals consumption habit), and the current socioeconomic situation. The implication is that consumer behavior

in Taiwan is consistent with the permanent income hypothesis proposed by Friedman.23,24

Consequently, by coupling the four models, the integrated model system can serve as a forecasting tool. Since
the consumption variables can be estimated within the estimation model system, for the overall estimation model
system, the socioeconomic indices and the MSW policy
measures serve as the exogenous variables, i.e., they are
wholly determined by outside systems.
Thus a projection of MSW discard levels can be achieved
with projections of the exogenous variables. Even, the projections of the exogenous variables can be estimated by
other models, or assumed by the policy target values. Table
8 describes the exogenous variables used in the estimated
model system for Taiwan.
Scenario analysis
For the future projection of MSW discard levels by waste
fraction, three scenarios are assumed for the period from
2006 to 2011, which coincides with the 100th year of the
Republic Era. The scenario analysis aims to evaluate the
effectiveness of the current national environment plan,
which is scheduled up to 2011.
The fraction of older people in the population is forecast
by a domestic report showing an increasing trend.25 The
setting of the MSW policy variables will follow the target
values of the national environmental plan as presented in
Table 9. Other parameters are assumed as described
below.
In scenario A, the business as usual scenario, per capita
GDP is assumed to increase by 5% annually; the saving rate
is kept at the same level as that for 2005, 21.63%; the unem-

118
Table 8. Descriptions of the exogenous variables for the estimation model system of MSW discards in the Taiwanese case study
Indices
Socioeconomic variables
PGDPt
Unempt
Hov65rt
Savingt
MSW policy variables
Dum1
Dum2
Dum3
Incit
Recyt

Description

Unit

Per capita gross domestic product

The unemployment rate in the labor force in year t
The proportion of older people (over 65 years) in the overall population
The saving rate with regard to disposable expenditure in year t

NT$ at 2001 prices

%
%
%

Dummy variable for the Resource Recycling Four-in-One Project: before 1997, the value
is zero, and is 1 otherwise
Dummy variable for the Restrictions on the Use of Plastics Bags: before 2001, the value
is zero, and is 1 otherwise
Dummy variable for the Mandatory Household Classification and Food Waste Recycling
imposed in Taipei city: before 2003, the value is zero, and is 1 otherwise
The fraction of MSW discard treated by incinerators in year t, a continuous variable
The recycled fraction of MSW generation in year t, a continuous variable

none
none
none
%
%

Table 9. Conditions in the future scenarios

Exogenous variable

Scenario
A

Recycled portion, Recyt (%)

Incineration rate, Incit (%)
Dum1, Dum2, and Dum3

ployed rate is assumed to be at a moderate level of 4%; the

fraction of older people in the population is set based on a
national report;25 the MSW policy variables are set according to the national environmental plan, except that the
incineration rate is kept at the same level as that for 2006,
82.76%.14
In scenario B, the low consumption scenario, per capita
GDP is assumed to increase by 3% annually (based on the
lower level of historical trends); the saving rate is assumed
to be at a higher level than that of 2005 at 24%; the unemployed rate is assumed at a higher level of 5% (compared
with the historical trend); the fraction of older people in the
population is set based on the national report;25 and the
MSW policy variables are set according to the national
environmental plan, except that the incineration rate is kept
at the same level as that for 2006, 82.76%.14
In scenario C, the high consumption scenario, per capita
GDP is assumed to increase by 7% annually (based on a
higher level than the historical trend); the saving rate is
assumed to be at a lower level than that of 2005 at 21%; the
unemployed rate is assumed at a low level of 2.5% (compared with the historical record); the fraction of older
people in the population is set based on the national report;25
and the MSW policy variables are set according to the
national environmental plan, except that the incineration
rate is kept at the same level as that for 2006, 82.76%.14
Based on the assumed scenarios, the estimation model
system yields sequential outputs: (1) per capita consumption expenditure; (2) the distribution of per capita con-

BAU
low
high
4
2
5
21.63
25
20
4
5
2
The values are 9.95, 10.15, 10.35, 10.53, 10.60, 10.72 for the period from
2006 to 2011, respectively
At a constant increasing rate from 34.97 (actual value) in 2006 to 50
(target value) in 2011
82.76
The policy measures are activated in the three scenarios.

Annual per capita consumption expenditure

(104 NT$ at 2001 prices)

Consumption level
Growth rate of per capita GDP (%/year)
Saving, rate, Savingt (%)
Unempolyed rate, Unempt (%)
Elder population rate, Hov65rt (%)

40
Scenario A
Scenario B

30

Scenario C
True value
Model fitting

20

10

0
1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

Fig. 7. Projection of annual per capita consumption expenditure. Scenario A, business as usual; scenario B, low consumption; scenario C,
high consumption

sumption expenditure among the categories and the

subcategories; and (3) per capita MSW discard by waste
fraction. The forecasting was performed with the statistical
software TSP 5.0.
Figure 7 shows the projection of per capita consumption
expenditure under the three scenarios by the consumption
forecasting model. The distribution of per capita consumption expenditure for the detailed categories and subcategories are forecast by the consumer behavior model based on
the assumptions of the scenarios. As examples, Figs. 8 and
9 demonstrate the projections of per capita consumption

119

expenditure on food and its subcategories. Next, the projections of MSW discard levels for MSW fractions are estimated under the three scenarios (see Fig. 10) and depict the
possible evolution of MSW discard levels influenced by the
effects of the consumption factors and those of MSW policy
measures. In addition, the projection of annual per capita
MSW discard levels can be obtained by adding the projections of discard levels of the respective MSW fractions (see
Fig. 11).

From Fig. 7 to Fig. 11, the model fitting results for the
period 1984 (or 1985 in Fig. 7) to 2005 (or 2004 in Figs. 10
and 11) are good approximations, implying that the estimation model system has been successfully. The sequential
projections show that the different increasing or decreasing
trends of MSW fractions are caused by changes in the economic and social conditions. In Fig. 7, all the projections of
per capita consumption expenditure for the three scenarios
are increasing since the economy continues improving at
different speeds in the assumed scenarios. In Figs. 8 and. 9,
different socioeconomic variables in the assumed scenarios,
reflecting the influences of lifestyle changes on consumer
behavior, lead to different distributions of consumer expen-

Annual per capita food expenditure

(104 NT$ at 2001 prices)

10

Discussion and policy implication

Scenario A

Scenario B
Scenario C
True value

Model fitting

0
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Fig. 8. Projection of annual per capita food expenditure

2.5

Annual per capita food expenditure by subcategory (104 NT$ at 2001 prices)

Fig. 9. Projections of annual per

capita food expenditure by
subcategory: a model fitting
(the subcategorys name with
appended S denotes the model
fitting value) and b future
projection

diture among the categories and subcategories. The different levels of consumption give rise to the corresponding
projections in the MSW discard level by waste fraction,
given the assumed MSW policy variables.
The evolution in terms of MSW discards by waste fraction is caused by a trade-off between the effects of the
consumption factors and those of the MSW policy measures. Therefore the discard levels of MSW fractions are all
the highest in the high consumption scenario (Scenario C),
intermediate in the business as usual scenario (Scenario A),

Cereals & meat -S

(a) Model fitting

Cereals & meat

Milk-S

Milk
Vegetables-S
Vegetables

1.5

Miscellaneous food commodity -S

Miscellaneous food commodity

Food out from home-S

Food out from home
Beverages-S

0.5

Beverages
Tobacco and betel nut-S

0
1984

Tobacco and betel nut

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

Cereals & Meat Scenario A

Cereals & Meat Scenario B
Cereals & Meat Scenario C
Milk Scenario A
Milk Scenario B
Milk Scenario C
Vegetables Scenario A
Vegetables Scenario B
Vegetables Scenario C
Miscellaneous food commodity Scenario A
Miscellaneous food commodity Scenario B
Miscellaneous food commodity Scenario C
Food out from home Scenario A
Food out from home Scenario B
Food out from home Scenario C
Beverages Scenario A
Beverages Scenario B
Beverages Scenario C
Tobacco and betel nut Scenario A
Tobacco and betel nut Scenario B
Tobacco and betel nut Scenario C

3.5

(b) Future projection

ili

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2005

2010

2011

120
100

80

100

80

(a) Paper waste

60

60

40

40

20

20

0
1992

(b) Plastics waste

0
1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2001

2004

2007

2010

2001

2004

2007

2010

350

100

300

80

(d) Moisture of waste

(c) Food waste

250

60

200
150

40

100

20
50
0

0
1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

20

(e) Metal waste

15

15

10

10

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

50

40

1998

(f) Glass waste

0
1992

1995

25

25

20

1992

2010

1992

1995

1998

12

10

(g) Miscellaneous combustibles

(h) Miscellaneous incombustibles

8

30
6

20
4

10

0
1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Fig. 10. Projections of annual per capita MSW discards by waste fraction. Except for part d, the y-axis denotes annual per capita MSW discards
(dry-based kg/capita/year). For part d, the y-axis indicates the water contained in MSW discards (kg/capita/year)

Annual per capita MSW emission (kg)

121
700
Scenario A

600

Scenario B

500

Scenario C
True value

400

Model fitting

300
200
100
0
1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Fig. 11. Projections of annual per capita MSW discard

and the lowest in the low consumption scenario (Scenario

B), since the effects of MSW policy measures are assumed
to be the same for each scenario.
In Fig. 10, the future trends of the MSW discard levels
can be classified into four types. Based on the assumed
socioeconomic changes and the policy variables in the
scenarios, plastic waste, metal waste, and glass waste are
seen to increase monotonously to a certain extent (see Fig.
10 b,e,f), implying that the effects of consumption factors
prevail over those of the policy measures during 20062011.
Therefore, more enhanced policy measures should be taken
for these three waste fractions. In particular, these three
fractions have decreasing trends during 2001 to 2004, in
which the effects of policy triumph over the consumption
factors. As for plastic waste, the Restriction on the Use of
Plastic Bags measure (Dum2) has a significant impact on
reducing the amount discarded, but since 2004, the effects
of consumption factors appear to triumph over that of
Dum2. Hence, strict regulations in terms of reducing the
discard of plastic waste, e.g., a ban on using plastic packaging, should be carried out (actually, it was implemented in
July 2006; however, more updated quantitative data is
required to identify its effectiveness), or, alternatively, some
green consumption activities on reducing the excess consumption in terms of plastic waste can be advocated and
promoted. The projections of the discard levels of metal
waste and glass waste will rise as well in the near future due
to the prevailing effects of the consumption factors. Current
recycling policy measures for these two materials should be
enhanced so as to improve the policy effectiveness on
reducing the two waste fractions.
The discards of food waste and the moisture content of
waste appears to undergo slight increases during 20062011
(see Fig. 10c,d). For food waste, the effect of the Mandatory
Household Classification and Food Waste Recycling (Dum3)
may be anticipated; however, the increasing projections of
the discard levels of food waste suggest that additional
policy measures are still needed. It should be noted that the
ratio of expenditure on food out from house, i.e., eating
out, to the total food expenditure will rise significantly due
to lifestyle changes. Since the food waste in Fig. 10c includes
the waste from the commercial food sector, e.g., restau-

rants, the significantly increasing consumption from those

eating out makes restaurants a potentially large source of
discarded food waste. Some countermeasures can be proposed on the commercial food sector. As for the moisture
content of waste, its future trend appears to continue downward because of the significantly prevailing MSW policy
effect. In addition, new strict regulations implemented after
2006, such as the revised Management Criteria for Public
Landfill Facilities and Recycling of Waste Food Oil (as
shown in Tables 4 and 5), may reduce the discards of food
waste and the moisture content to a higher extent. Thus, the
projections of the discard levels of these two fractions may
be overestimated; nevertheless, the effectiveness of the new
regulations cannot be identified until the latest information
has been provided.
Owing to the rapidly increasing recycling rate expected
in the scenarios, the discard level of paper waste is set to
diminished significantly (see Fig. 10a). It can be expected
that a large amount of paper waste is to be recycled for
further reuse.
The last type is the behavior of the miscellaneous items
of combustibles and incombustibles. In Fig. 10g,h, the projections of the two fractions show that the discard levels are
expected to stay roughly the same, implying that the influences of the consumption factors and the MSW policy measures appear to be balanced during the period.
Up to the present time, TEPA has made much effort to
establish a public recycling system. However, the next
national MSW plan should focus on promoting new policy
measures associated with the reduce and reuse aspects of
the 3R principle, if consumption continues to increase. Possibilities include improving the citizens environmental consciousness by means of comprehensive social education
activities, proposing policy measures with economic incentives for green buy activities, or imposing environmental
taxes on the commodities that may result in high environmental loads. Since the majority of developing countries
prioritize economic development, resulting in increased
consumption, a more sustainable consumption pattern with
a smaller environmental load is crucial for the process of
economic development.
On the other hand, the effectiveness of the current MSW
policy measures should be continually improved by raising
the administrative budget of MSW policy measures; increasing the manpower of the civil servants who are in charge of
MSW affairs; or promoting regional cooperation for the
MSW collection, treatment, and recycling system. Meanwhile, more standard landfill sites for the fly ash and bottom
ash from the incinerators should be established, since incineration remains the main intermediate process technology.
Besides, from Fig. 10d, the heat value of the MSW is
expected to increase since the moisture content of waste is
set to be at a lower level before 2011. Hence, two ways of
resource recovery should be considered and enhanced for
incineration in the near future: reprocessing the MSW into
refuse-derived fuel (RDF) and recovering energy from the
incineration process.
In addition, since higher recycling rates are expected in
the future, more recyclable waste will be collected. Thus an

122

economically efficient market for the recycled materials and

a cost-efficient reproduction industry, which uses the recycled resources as the raw materials in the production
process, are required. The economic instrument type of
policy measure, such as subsidy and tax exemption, would
be efficient in developing the recycling market and reproduction industry.

Conclusion

2.

3.
4.

5.
6.

Focusing on the recycling of waste, this article presents a

history of MSW discard levels and MSW management in
Taiwan. Moreover, a methodology was established to
project MSW discard levels by waste fraction through an
estimation model system based on consumption expenditure and MSW policy measures. Under three possible future
scenarios, the amount of MSW discarded until 2011 was
forecasted and discussed. It has been acknowledged that
consumer behavior, influenced by changes in lifestyle, is an
important driving factor of environmental loads, particularly for MSW discard levels. After a period of rapid economic development, Taiwan has successfully reduced MSW
discard levels by imposing policy measures. Such progress
can be viewed as a typical process in the development of a
civilization. The experiences gained in promoting MSW
management in Taiwan may provide helpful information to
current developing countries. However, in order to achieve
the ultimate goal of promoting a zero-waste society, a
more sustainable consumption pattern and more effective
MSW policy measures should be addressed.
To help achieve this goal, the authors developed a consumption forecasting model in support of a previously
established estimation model system so as to analyze and
simulate consumer behavior in a detailed way. Thus, the
extended estimation model system can provide reliable
sequential projections for per capita consumption expenditure, the distribution of per capita consumption expenditure
among the categories and the subcategories, and MSW
discard levels for different waste fractions through scenario
analysis. Hence, the effects of current MSW policy measures on MSW discard levels can be examined, and concrete
modifications are proposed to facilitate current policy measures and account for the possible changes in lifestyle and
consumption factors.
To conclude, the authors hope that the review of the
development of MSW management in Taiwan and the outcomes from the presented methodology will contribute to
policy design and help us move forward to a low-wastediscard society.
Acknowledgment This research was supported by the Global Environment Research Fund of the Ministry of Environment, Japan
(BC-088).

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