Chinas Yuan In The Big League!

In the past decade, China has taken unprecedented steps to open its capital markets and internationalize
its currency. The recent announcement of the renminbi (RMB)s inclusion into the IMFs reserve currency
basket is seen as a vote of confidence in the countrys efforts to liberalize its financial markets. It also
reinforces Chinas growing importance in the global economy - the Yuan is the only emerging market
currency in the IMFs elite reserve currency list, commanding a higher weight than the yen or pound.

Yuan Rising Through the Ranks

The Yuans inclusion does not come as a surprise, considering its current global rankings: fifth among the
worlds most used currencies and the most-used currency for intra-regional payments in Asia-Pacific. This
is indeed a notable achievement as the RMB, at the 14th position just three years back, has now overtaken
six other currencies. Despite this, the Yuan remains a small player at the global level in terms of volumes,
accounting for 2.45% share of transactions worldwide. We believe its inclusion in the SDR basket would
help the currency gain further traction in the international market and (consequently) boost transaction
volumes.

Impetus for Further Reforms

While China has made significant progress in its efforts to internationalize its currency, there is significant
room to achieve full convertibility and move towards a market determined exchange rate. Status as a
reserve currency alone does not guarantee the currencys economic attractiveness, as investors still have
limited access to Chinas financial markets. The IMFs endorsement of the efforts of Chinese policy makers
is expected to act as a catalyst and drive further reforms towards making the currency freely usable and
liberalize the countrys capital account.

Substantial Inflows in the Long Term

The reweighting of the IMFs SDR assets is not expected to have a significant impact on the demand for
the Yuan in the short term (estimated to be approximately US$30 billion, a modest amount given the size
of the Chinese economy). However, the impact is likely to be more pronounced in the long term as central
banks, sovereign wealth funds and other major multilateral institutions reallocate their balance sheets to
reflect the redistribution in SDR weights. It is estimated that as many as 70 central banks already have
allocated some part of their reserves in RMB assets. Over the next decade the impact of the rebalancing

could see reserves to the tune of up to US$1 trillion flowing into Chinese assets, significantly altering the
global currency landscape.

Positive Impact on Chinese Corporations

The rapid internationalization of the Yuan and its growing use in cross-border trade settlements is
expected to benefit Chinese corporations. Chinese firms, especially SMEs, will be able to use the RMB as
an invoicing and settlement currency in cross-border trade, which would lower exchange rate-related risks
and reduce transaction costs (the cost of transacting in US dollar is 23% higher than that of transacting
in the local currency, according to PBOC). In addition, larger Chinese companies would be able to raise
funds from international markets in the operating currency, instead of US dollar, thereby reducing their
currency exposure.

Neutral Impact on the Stock Market

In our view, the reweighting may not have a direct impact on foreign investor appetite for domestic
equities, especially after the pessimism triggered by the market meltdown and the nature of subsequent
government intervention. However, the conferring of the SDR status on the RMB, perceived as IMFs
endorsement of Chinas financial reform agenda, is likely to lift investor sentiment. In the medium to long
term, the potential inclusion of Chinese A-share stocks in MSCIs Emerging Markets index is expected to
have far greater impact on inflows in the domestic stock markets.

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