Extended Project Qualification

Title: To what extent is climate change affecting our otherwise

stable economy?
Candidate Name: Mubin Al-Manaf
Candidate Number:
Centre Number: 74008

Contents
Abstract
3
Introduction
4-5
Literature
Review
6-10
Conclusion
11
Bibliography
12

Abstract
In this day and age, I think it is important to shed some light on the situation
humanity has gotten itself in to. The youth of the world and the generations
surpassing that will be directly affected by the actions of society today. World
leaders, governments and influential people are keeping relatively quiet; despite
the power they have which can be used to make an impact on the world. This is
why I feel the need to research and write about climate change, and form an
opinion from a non-biased standpoint. In order to make it more interesting, I
figured combining both climate change and economics would make a very aweinspiring argument. Climate change will inevitably affect countries economically
as climate change will directly and indirectly affect the supply and demand of raw
materials, however there are specific questions that I would like to find the
answers to, with specific regards to the economy.
1) What will the difference in magnitude of damage to the average economy
be between the short-run and long run?
2) Is it possible to rectify and/or prevent damage done to the economy, and if
so, how?
For the first question, I may need to focus on one economy for simplicity sake,
which I choose to use the continent of Africa as my subject.

Introduction to climate change

Climate change is a huge topic of interest in todays society, attracting many
discussions and debates throughout the world. It is a very important subject in the
world of the 21st century, and this is why I feel the need to touch on this subject
and learn about it. Ever since the industrial revolution, weve basically been
robbing the world of its natural beauty to fulfill our own selfish desires, each
country with their own goals and aspirations. Of course, it was a revolution, hence
industrial revolution. Before the industrial revolution, we had to depend on
slaves for it was apparently a cheap source of energy. Fortunately, that has been
abolished for obvious ethical and humane reasons. The world started to
exponentially increase its productivity as engines and machines were invented,
which was a very good thing economically. However, with pros there will always
be cons, especially at this magnitude of a level. The Industrial Revolution took
place between the 18th and early 19th century. During the 18th Century, global
CO2 emissions were around 3 to 7 million tonnes per year. It sounds quite little,
because it was. During the early 19th Century, CO2 emissions steadily rose, and
managed to reach 54 million tonnes per year by 1850. Sounds quite reasonable
right? Well now, we are currently emitting over 8000 million tonnes per year.
(Cook, 2010). The CO2 we pumped into the atmosphere during the 18th century is
just 0.06% of what we produce today. Just start to imagine the consequences, and
have a little think on its effects it has on the world you see today.

(Data source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS, 2014))

This graph shows the change in global surface temperatures relative to the years
between 1951-1980 when climate change was not as big a problem as it is today.
The last 10 years between 2000 and 2010 have been warmest years in the last
134 years, with the exception of 1998. The warmest year on record is 2014,
however the study was published in 2014 therefore 2014 was the last recorded
year. (NASA/GISS, 2014)

Climate Change vs. Global Warming

I would first like to clarify the difference between climate change and global
warming as people may often get confused by the two terms. They are actually
two different phenomena. Global warming is the long-term trend of an increasing
average global temperature. Climate change refers to the changes in the climate,
which is caused by the rising average global temperature. (NASA/GISS,
2014)Examples include changes in precipitation patterns, heat waves, increased
frequency of droughts and other extreme weather. (GPWayne, 2015)

Causes of Climate Change

The large majority of climate scientists believe that the current trend of climate
change is due to industrialization whereby carbon dioxide is produced as a byproduct of the combustion of fossil fuels, for example. The entrapment of water
vapor being the main cause, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane within the
atmosphere causes the greenhouse effect. Another type of greenhouse gas is
called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and this compound is purely synthetic and
originates from the industry sector. This compound causes the ozone layer to thin
out, and this is detrimental as the ozone layer is a very important characteristic of
the atmosphere (The greenhouse effect is a type of warming that results when the
atmosphere traps heat from radiating into space, therefore the heat effectively
builds up within the earths atmosphere. Most of the heat radiating into space is
absorbed by the greenhouse gas molecules and re-emitted in different directions,
thus warming the earth. (NASA, 2015) This is important information as it shows
the vast impact it has on the world as it is completely unavoidable however some
countries are affected worse than others, especially relatively flat countries which
are at risk to the rising sea levels.
Undeterred by the vast sources reliable information on highly regarded websites
and libraries, there is still a lot of conspiracy concerning climate change, some
even think it is a myth and that climate change does not exist. Due to the
plethora of myths, I will just focus on one myth, which in my opinion is the most
believable and therefore can be taken more seriously than others. The myth that I
will help clarify is the belief that climate change is a natural process and that it
has changed before, without the existence of humans. With this in mind, people
would think its a natural cycle, which is technically true but more on that later.
The myth is not true for two reasons:

The fact that we humans have been directly affecting the environment due
to industrialization and modernization cannot be disregarded. We pump
huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the same way
that natural occurrences did before humans existed
Second, to imply we have nothing to fear from today's climate change is
not borne out by the lessons from rapid climate changes in Earth's past.

(Lee, 2015)

The Economics of Climate Change

Global Impacts
Climate change is a phenomenon that affects the earth as a whole; therefore all
countries will be affected by it. However some countries will be affected more
than others due to an array of different reasons. It is hard to pinpoint as to how
badly affected different countries are as climate change can have both beneficial
and adverse effects on them. For instance, global warming may help countries in
agriculture but will cause them discomfort if people do not have access to air
conditioning, heating and other forms of technology which serve as protection
from the environment. At the same time, climate change can affect some crops
negatively, for example cocoa beans. Climate change can also affect different
groups of people within a community or country. This can include the elderly,
children, low-income populations and the native and tribal groups. (Climate Impacts on
Global Issues) These two constraints amplify each others problems, as the more
unfortunate people do not have the funds and access to the technology, which
could otherwise be used to help improve their quality of life. This can be simple as
air-conditioning inside residential areas to lack of vaccines in area with an
increase in number of diseases due to the changing climate and environment.
However in this report, I would emphasise more on the economics of climate
change. A report facilitated by the DARA group and the Climate Vulnerable Forum
states that and I quote from journalist Fiona Harvey, climate change is already
contributing to the deaths of nearly 400,000 people a year and costing the world
more than $1.2 trillion, wiping 1.6% annually from global GDP. (Harvey, 2012)
The report consisted of 331 pages and is entitled Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A
Guide to the Cold Calculus of A Hot Planet. The DARA report is a very reliable
source as it was written by more than 50 respectable academics, which are made
up of scientists, economists and policy-makers. Governments amounting to 20
have commissioned the report.

Main Effects caused by Climate Change

Food and Agriculture

As I touched on earlier in the section above, climate change affects all of us. It is
inevitable that our lives and environment will change by some extent; it is just a
matter of time and magnitude. The changes in climate change can have an
adverse affect on food production as it changes the whole makeup of the
environment the crops and plantations live in. The threats to food production
include risks to grain crops, fruit crops, fisheries and livestock.
(Figure 1, Source: Penn State College of Agricultural Sciences)
The main effects of climate change to food
supplies are:
Decrease in yields of both crops and
livestock
Altering rainfall patterns
Increase in severity and number of pests
Danger to fisheries
Climate change will undoubtedly change the
ecosystem of a particular area, which is
detrimental if a pest is introduced to the area. One of the more recent examples is
the potato leafhopper, also known by the scientific name Empoasca fabae Harris.
The pest is around half the size of a grain of rice and is bright lime green in colour.
(Refer to Figure 1)
This insect pictures on the left is the potato leafhopper, and it has been troubling
farmers across the United States and southern Canada. Contrary to its name, this
pest also feeds on other crops other than potatoes, which include green beans
and alfalfa.
Studies by the University of Maryland and Queens College at City of University of
New York suggest that the worsening of this pest problem can be largely due to
climate change. I will quote a section of the abstract of the article of this study:
Average E. fabae arrival date at different states reveal a clear trend along the
south-north axis, with earliest arrival closest to the overwintering
range. E. fabae arrival has advanced by 10 days over the last 62
years. E. fabae arrived earlier in warmer years in relation to each target state
level temperature anomaly (3.0 days / C increase in temperature anomaly).
Increased temperature had a significant and positive effect on the severity of
infestation, and arrival date had a marginal negative effect on severity. These
relationships suggest that continued warming could advance the time
of E. fabae colonization and increase their impact on affected crops. (Mitchell B.
Baker, 2015)
This study shows that there is a direct correlation between the increase in global
temperatures due to climate change and the increase in pest infestation. The
potato leafhopper is very destructive to crops, especially the alfalfa in
Pennsylvania. The costs of damage amount to around $15 million a year, posing a
negative impact on the states economy (Dennis Calvin, 2013). The US is a very
wealthy country with multiple sources of income so they are not affected much as
their losses would only be a very minute percentage of their Gross Domestic
Product, which can be abbreviated to GDP. If the global temperatures increase
further to 3 Celsius instead of the predicted 2Celsius, this could increase the
damage caused to the economy by around 0.9% of global output. In other words,
this means it is predicted to cause $150 billion worth of damage to the US
economy. (White House, 2014) These are statistics from the government, which
may therefore mean that the source is unreliable as it may be a form of
propaganda.

Altering Rainfall Patterns

A paper published by Kate Marvel and Cline Bonfils titled Indentifying external
influences on global precipitation talks about climate change and its affects on
global precipitation. According to the article, the increase in greenhouse gases
has altered global precipitations, specifically the zonal-mean distribution, by the
two ways. The first one being changes in the pattern of atmospheric circulation,
which will cause a pole ward displacement of subtropical dry zones and storm
tracks which would then lead to the widening of the tropical belt (Kate Marvel,
2013). This in simple terms will cause rainfall precipitations all over the world to
shift and not be in sync with the trends. The effects on the zonal-mean
distribution will basically cause dry regions to become drier, and wet regions to
become wetter. Droughts in general will be intensifying in severity and length,
with flooding also following a similar trend. This will cause an uncertainty for
farming around the world, which will not only affect the incomes of individual
farmers and firms, but also the economy as a whole if the countrys income is
highly independent on it. I would be looking into this with more detail in the
sections ahead.

Literature Review
Malaysia and Thailand
I have grouped these two countries together as they both are similar in
geographically as they are both neighbouring countries and are located in the
same region in south-east Asia. Due to the region the Malaysia and Thailand
occupy, it highly susceptible to flooding. (Universiti Catholique de Louvain,
Brussels, Belgium) The damage done to both countries is overwhelming with
losses amounting to the billions. Floods are the primary hazard to Malaysia,
particularly the affecting the west coast the most. (Center for Hazards and Risk
Research at Columbia University (CHRR)) In the year 2007, it was estimated that
floods in Johor alone resulted in damage amounted to $605 million. It is the
highest of all disaster events in the last 3 decades. During the same space of
time, the total damage experienced by Malaysia due to flood losses added up to
$1 billion, a figure more than half the economic loss due to all types of natural
disasters. (Universiti Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium)
Thailand on the other hand has also experienced the same fate, yielding similar
damage to the economy. Floods that occurred in late November has caused
damage which has been approximated to be $45.7 billion according to initial
findings.Themajorityofthat$45.7billionwasinthemanufacturingsector,withdamagestothat
sectoramountingto$32billion(TheWorldBank,2011).Thesenumbersarecolossal,makingthe
damageof$1billiontoMalaysiaseemverysmall.

Bangladesh
The Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Mrs Sheikh Hasina, made a speech regarding
climate change at the launch of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor at Asia Society
New York in 2012. There is a section from the speech which relates very closely to
the topic of this report. Sheikh Hasina said and I quote, The Report shows an
alarming decline in food production in rice, wheat, and maize production due to
climate change. This will result in additional price increases threatening food
security, particularly in South Asia. For Bangladesh, it means loss of about four
million metric tons of food grain, worth around two billion US dollars that is,
about 2% of our GDP. If one adds up all the other damages, our total loss would be
3 to 4% of GDP. Without this loss, our GDP growth would have risen 10%
allowing substantial growth in employment and food production, greater resource
allocation to health, education, and other priority sectors. The prime minister is
referring to the same report produced by DARA, which was previously mentioned
at the start of this section. Bangladesh is a densely populated country with around
150 million people. Unfortunately, 26% of that 150 million live below the poverty
line today, however, this is an improvement from 63 million in 2000 to 47 million
in 2010 living under the poverty line. (Bhowmick, 2013) As stated earlier in the
Mrs Hasinas speech, climate change will affect agriculture in Bangladesh by a
huge margin. To make matters worse, agriculture is the largest sector in
Bangladeshs economy, making up 18.6% of the countrys GDP. With that in mind,
it makes sense that the agriculture sector employs 45% of Bangladeshs labour
workforce. (CIA, 2015) This is detrimental, as a large proportion of the population
will be subjected to volatile income and possible retrenchment in the short-term.
With very limited skills, these labourers will find it very hard to beat poverty
therefore policies must be meticulously put in place to help improve the whole
situation in both the short and long term.

Africa
Climate change is a huge threat to Africa, causing heart-wrenching damage to the
economy and the society who live in it. The weather in Africa has been
increasingly unpredictable, placing a huge burden on the income of farmers, food
security and the quality of life of the people. (FAO, 2009) In 2001, the North
African flood, which occurred in northern Algeria, caused
a loss of $400 million and 800 deaths. Climate change has affected Africa the
most out of all countries, despite it being the country, which contributes the least
to climate change through man-made actions. (United Nations. Economic
Commission for Africa , 2006). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Report 2007 (IPCC, 2007) shares the same stance that Africa will be heavily hit by
climate change, their reasons being high poverty levels, lack of solid governance
and poor adaptability. The report states that studies have shown that crop yield
reduction would decrease up to 50% and the revenue from crops would decrease
by 90% by the year 2100. The agriculture sector employs around 65% of Africas
labour force and makes up for 32% of the continents gross domestic product (The
World Bank).
Because of this, it is certain that Africas economy is about to collapse unless
members of the government jointly reach a consensus and implement policies
that will help sustain the economy not only in the short term, but in the long term
as well. The cost of adaptation could only amount to 5-10% of Gross Domestic
Product. In the short term, it will reduce the climate change costs by a large
amount from 2% to 1% of GDP by 2040 ($230 billion to $148 billion). In the long
term, it will reduce climate change costs from 10% to 7%, by 2100 ($530 billion to
$439 billion). On the other hand, the loss in Gross Domestic Product would be 10%

annually without any adaptation, with an upper value of 25% (IPCC, 2007). The
World Bank has been lending an average of $300 million a year between 2001
and 2005, leading up to $800 million in 2009. (The World Bank). Therefore, it can
be deduced that Africas economy is not self-sustaining yet, and being so, Africa
must therefore take swift action before the negative effects of climate change
start multiplying over time, with possibly irreversible damage.
Vietnam
Although Vietnam has been doing very well economically in the last decade with
the countrys real GDP increasing by 7.3% on average annually, climate change
still has its effects on it. Fortunately enough, Vietnam is in a far better situation
than the examples above as the country has diversified its economy into other
sectors like services and industry. However, agriculture, forestry and fishing still
play a major role in the economy as they employ more than 47% of the labour
force and make up 21% of the economy. Vietnams long coastline is susceptible to
submersion due to its geographic location and rising sea levels, making it one of
the most hazard-prone countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Storms and flooding
are the main causes of economic and human loss in the area. Moreover, a high
proportion of the countrys populace and income-producing assets are situated in
lowlands nearby coasts, making Vietnam one of the countries most prone to be
affected by climate change. An estimated 5% of Vietnams area will be
submerged under water by 2100 due to the rising sea levels (The World Bank,
2011).
One of the more disastrous affects climate change poses on Vietnam are the
storms, typhoons and floods that take place almost every year. Every year, an
average of 430 people are killed annually by natural disasters between the years
2007 and 2011 (Birsel, 2012). In 2008 specifically, 550 people were killed due to
natural disasters whilst causing damage of more than $700 million dollars. In
2004, 232 people were killed with 38 people missing, economic assets were
destroyed or killed, amounting to a loss of $57 million(Xinhua, 2005). Although
Vietnams economy may still be on the rise, preventive measure must still be
taken to reduce casualties and further damage economically. According to a
source I deem unreliable, Prime Minister of Vietnam, Mr. Nguyen Tan Dung claims
that property losses per year between 2007 and 2011 amounted to 1% of the
annual Gross Domestic Product (Hays, 2014). This may seem like a small
percentage however using this years predicted GDP; the 1% will amount to $2.05
billion. This is a huge loss. If adaptive measures are taken, the damage caused by
climate change can be minimised.
The Climate Risk and Adaptation Profile 2011 published by The World Bank
presents Vietnams possible ways of adaptation to the affects of climate change.
The problematic areas have been split up into individual sectors: agriculture,
water resources, forestry, energy and transportation, coastal zones and
aquaculture and human health.
In the short term, construction of reservoirs, crop selection, farming methods and
soil erosion can be better controlled for the changing climate. In the long term
however, cross-breeding, manipulating cropping patterns, and revised
management and planning methods are needed in order to make the agriculture
industry more sustainable under the stresses induced by climate change. Water
resources have to be revised for any ways of improvement. These can include
new and existing dams, reservoirs and dykes to accommodate the affects of
climate change Methods of adapting forestry to climate change can include
research into more climate-resistant species of trees, improvement in the
management of forests and finding methods to curb forest fires. For aquaculture,
more resistant species need to be bred and improved capacity in aqua-farm
management. Transport has to be made more efficient and energy conservation

has to be improved, transportation infrastructure has to be made to withstand all

types of forces from natural disasters. The adaptation for coastal zones is quite
technical so I will quote, apply a three-pronged approach that involves coastal
protection measures (e.g., construction of dykes and pumping stations, protection
and restoration of mangroves and urban wetlands), non-structural adaptation
(e.g., building the resilience of poor communities in floodprone areas), and, in
cases where the former two approaches are not feasible, withdrawal. Human
health can be improved by tightening up pollution standards and regulation. More
health-centres have to be built to increase capacity. Updates about hazards,
diseases and weather should be informed to the public often on suitable media.
(The World Bank, 2011). These methods of adaptation seem to be quite vague,
however it provides a good base for other countries that are experiencing similar
effects of climate change. The methods of adaptation I just listed out from the
research I carried out answers the second question mentioned in the abstract of
this report.
Islands Nations - Republic of Kiribati
Island nations are on high alert as global warming and rising sea levels are
starting to render parts of low-lying nations uninhabitable. Sea levels have risen
by 6 to 8 inches in the last 100 years. It is estimated that sea levels will rise as
much as 20 inches by the end of the century according to the IPCC. The first
nation I would talk about is the Republic of Kiribati, who they themselves claim to
be among the most vulnerable of the vulnerable The size of Kiribatis economy
is very small relative to other countries, having a GDP of $580.8 million (2008
est.). The rise in sea levels can cause flooding the causeways that link Kiribati to
islets of Tarawa which will have negative socio-economic effects. Based on todays
values, costs estimated to be around $2 billion would be needed in order to
protect all inhabited islands of Kiribati. (Kiribati Government). It has been revealed
by the President of Kiribati that there are plans to move the entire population to
Fijis main island. He informed the public that the Cabinet has planned to purchase
around 6,000 acres of land at Viti Levu. (Butler, 2012) In March 2012, The
President of Kiribati said It wouldn't be for me, personally, but would apply more
to a younger generationfor them, moving won't be a matter of choice. Its
basically going to be a matter of survival. Unfortunately, locating to a new safer
area may be the only feasible choice in short run, as $2 billion of funds are
needed to carry out the mitigation program to protect the islands from the effects
of climate change. With a GDP of only slightly more than half a billion USD, the
Republic of Kiribati will need other forms of funding as it is just not feasible with
the current state of the economy. There are plenty of Non-governmental
organisation that may help, the World Bank for instance.
The United Kingdom
The United Kingdom is very vulnerable to flooding due to its geographical
circumstances. During the summer of 2007, parts of England and Northern Ireland
flooded and it caused the country more than 3 billion in damages. The Cumbria
floods in 2009 and 2010 caused huge damage to the area, with total damage
estimated to be in the 100s of millions. It has caused the residence a lot of long
term inconvenience which plus a lot of damage to infrastructure, including 20
road bridge which would have caused a lot of disruption to transport (The UK
Government, 2012).
Agriculture and food production took up to 7.1% of GDP in 2011. The agriculture
sector employed around 4 million people, and also fed half the population of the
UK (Defra, 2010e). Rising sea levels will badly affect agriculture in the long term,
as much of the UKs fertile farmland is located near to the coastline and at a low
altitude, making it very prone to flooding (Barclay, 2012). In addition, the rising

sea levels caused by global warming are causing serious damage to residences
along the UKs coastline as well: although these residences are seen as extremely
valuable, they are now in serious danger of falling as the cliffs erode, and the
issue will only get worse as flooding increases. Although the average
temperatures in the UK have been rising, flooding is hard to predict as shown by
very heavy floods in 2007, and very cold winters in 2009, 2010 and 2011(Barclay,
2012). As temperatures increase, however, there also are more opportunities for
previously unavailable industries to rise up in the UK: for example, wine is now
becoming economically viable to grow, and fruit like oranges that may not have
been able to survive previously can now withstand the climate of the UK.
Vineyards have been thriving over the years as the temperature in vine areas
have been rising since the 1980s, being close to a degree higher than most of the
20th century. (Baler, 2013)

Conclusion
This report concludes that climate change has a substantial affect on the
economy, and that its effects will amplify over time unless mitigation programs
are carried out to curb the effects of climate change. From the research I have
gathered, countries that have contributed to climate change the least have been
affected the most. On the contrary, countries who contribute most to climate
change like the US and China for example, are not affected much by climate
change as they are much better at adapting to the climate due to their stronger
economy.
My findings have shown that climate change would cause a bigger burden to the
economy if no action is taken in the long-term, therefore in order for countries to
have a sustainable future, abrupt changes to policies and infrastructure must be
put into place in order to have a brighter future. I think the UN and all its member
nations should produce a resolution to combat global warming and climate
change, helping less-economically developed countries, as they need the most aid
in whatever size, shape or form. Climate change may be a very controversial topic
with regards to it being human-caused, however researchers and scientists are
making new discoveries every day. Regardless if it being mankinds doing, climate
change is a problem the whole of humanity will need to deal with now, in order to
have a better future for the generations to come. The earth will continue to
survive as climate change worsens, but on the contrary, we humans may not in
the long-term. Therefore this is an issue to be taken seriously, and I hope all
countries will do the necessary actions to adapt and mitigate climate change.

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