CICED

5th International Conference on Electricity Distribution

Shanghai, 5-6 Sept 2012

Paper CP0656

EVALUATION OF RESIDUAL SERVICE LIFE OF HIGH VOLTAGE CIRCUIT BREAKER

HUANG Kai

ZHAO Shuqiang

North China Electric Power University China

North China Electric Power University China

E-mail:huangkai7660@sina.com

ABSTRACT
It makes evaluation of residual service life on the high
voltage circuit breaker more difficult, because of the
uncertainty (fuzziness, randomness) and complexity of
high voltage circuit breaker life influencing factors, so
this paper presents a service life assessment model based
on fuzzy reliability. The fuzziness and randomness of the
parameter characteristics about high voltage circuit
breaker are analysed, the distribution function and the
fuzzy membership function of the parameters are
obtained. With the online monitoring datas, using the
random theory and the fuzzy theory calculate the fuzzy
reliability of high voltage circuit breaker. For
maintenance of high voltage circuit breaker causing data
mutation, this paper uses a improved gray GIM (1, 1)
prediction method based on the step data sequence, it
realizes to predict the residual service life of high voltage
circuit breaker. Finally, using SF6 high voltage circuit
breaker as the example, verifies the rationality of the
remaining life assessment model of high voltage circuit
breaker.

INTRODUCTION
Electrical equipment failure will not only directly affect
the economic efficiency of power companies, it can also
cause the user to serious economic losses, and even leads
to serious social impact. In order to prevent the
occurrence of electrical equipment failures, maintenance
and replacement of the electrical equipment are very
necessary[1]. If the time of maintenance and replacement
is not suitable, it will affect the planned power outages
and the utilization ratio of equipment, and even affect the
safe operation of the grid. To scientifically predict the
best time for maintenance and replacement of the
equipment, and improve the production efficiency, it is
essential to assess the life of electrical equipment.
Therefore, the establishment of a scientific and rational
life assessment model is very significant to the
maintenance of electrical equipment and to the safe
operation of power[2-3].
This paper establish a life evaluation model based on
fuzzy reliability, using the uncertainty theory about
probability and fuzzy and the online monitoring
technology. For the mutational data caused by
maintenance, it uses a improved gray GIM(1, 1)
forecasting method based on the step data sequence to
predict the remaining life of the high voltage circuit
breaker.

Paper No CP0656

PARAMETERS OF LIFE ASSESSMENT OF

HIGH VOLTAGE CIRCUIT BREAKER
Due to the impact of the environment, their own quality,
maintenance, etc, there are various uncertainties in
operation process of high voltage circuit breaker. And the
remaining life of high voltage circuit breaker is realized
through its fault statistics data and online monitoring data.
This article selects the breaking, operation, insulation
and work environment as the main parameters of life
assessment[4]. Among them, the open circuit situation
parameters include open circuit wear, several years,
breaking times, etc; Operation parameters include points
off time, eletric antibound, points off the coil DC
resistance, etc; Insulation parameters include arcing
chamber gas pressure, the water content, a loop of
resistance, etc; The main work environment parameters
including temperature, moisture, dust, etc.

THE FUZZY RELIABILITY

VOLTAGE CIRCUIT BREAKER

OF

HIGH

Because of all kinds of high voltage circuit breaker's

internal and external factors, not only the parameter value
of structure designing, but also the measuring parameter
values are all have some randomness; In addition, there
are no clear boundary between the "normal" and
"abnormal" of high voltage circuit breaker, while, it's a
fuzzy state.

Random distribution and fuzzy membership

function of parameters
With variously internal and external factors, the
monitoring value of every parameter xi of high voltage
circuit breaker have some randomness, considering the
every parameter measured value tends to normal
distribution, so it is relatively appropriate to use the
normal distribution to describe the distribution rule of
every parameter measured value, notes for:
2

xi ~ N (ui , i ) , the probability density function as:

( x u )2

i 2i
1
f ( xi ) =
e 2
2
2
Where ui is the expectation, is the variance.

(1)

According to the traditional reliability theory, the

reliability about parameter X i high voltage circuit
breaker as follow:

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CICED

5th International Conference on Electricity Distribution

Shanghai, 5-6 Sept 2012

Paper CP0656

Ri = f ( xi )dxi
Where is the reliable domain of parameter

xi ui

u X i ( xi ) = ( xi u2i ) 2
e 2 i

(2)

Xi .

On the other hand, according to the fuzzy mathematical

theory, the fuzziness of one event can be described by a
membership function. Membership functions commonly
use normal distribution, trapezoidal distribution, triangle
distribution, etc. Because of the different characteristics
of each parameter, the membership functions can be
divided into partial small type, intermediate type, partial
large type, namely:
Partial small type membership functions:

(3)

xi > ui

Intermediate type membership function:

( xi u i ) 2
2 i 2

u X i ( xi ) = e

(4)

Partial large type membership function:

u X i ( xi ) = ( xi u2i )2
e 2 i

xi ui
(5)

xi < ui

The three forms corresponding to partial small type,

intermediate type, and partial large type membership
function are shown in Figure 1.
u

0
ai

0
ai

xi

Partial small type

ai

xi

Intermediate type

xi

Partial large type

Fig. 1 The three forms of membership function

1
X i is reliable

u X i ( xi ) = (0
1) X i is fuzzy
0
X i is unreliable

Calculation of fuzzy reliability

The application of traditional method is a kind of limit
state to describe the boundary between reliable with
failure of high voltage circuit breaker, which will lead to
a event will be in reliable or failure, two kinds of state
when its parameter in a small area above or below the
limit, ignoring the fuzzy relation between them, this is
clearly unreasonable. In fact, the boundary of condition
from reliable to failure is difficult to determine, because it
is a transition process, that is, a fuzzy range, this range
says that the happening of failure is gradual, as is shown
in figure 2.
u
1
reliable
domain

failure
domain

0
xiL

failure
domain

reliable
domain
0
xi

(a)The classic random state

xiL

Thus, the calculation formula of the fuzzy reliability is:

+

Ri = P( X i ) = u X i ( xi ) f ( xi )dxi

(7)

f ( xi ) is the distribution density function of a

random variables, u X i ( xi ) is the membership function

Where

of fuzzy event

Xi .

By equation (7) shows that:

(1) when the parameters of the high voltage circuit
breaker only have randomness not have fuzziness, so
the membership in a reliable domain is 1, the
membership out of the reliable domain is 0. Equation (7)

(6)

translates into equation (2), namely

xi

(b)Fuzzy random state

Fig. 2 Classic random state division and

fuzzy random state divisio
n
division
For a parameter, we can use a membership function to
represent, such as formula (6) shown, namely:

Ri = f ( xi )dxi ,

this equation is the traditional reliability calculation

formula.
(2) When the parameters of the high voltage circuit
breakers only have fuzziness rather than randomness,
u X i ( xi ) will become a constant, equation (7) is
transformed into

Ri = u X i ( xi ) , the equivalent to the

membership of the parameters.

Paper No CP0656

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5th International Conference on Electricity Distribution

Shanghai, 5-6 Sept 2012

Paper CP0656

The life of high voltage circuit breaker is determined by

open circuit wear, running status, insulation state,
environmental factors and so on, so its integrated
reliability should be calculated through these state
parameters. That is, the reliability of high voltage circuit
breaker is a function of open circuit wear reliability,
operation reliability, insulation reliability and so on,
namely:
(8)
R = f ( R1 , R2 ,..., Rn )

improved grey GIM(1, 1) model as follows:

b
x (0) (k + 1) = [ x ( 0) (1) ](1 e a )e ak + (k i )
a
b
[e ( 0) (1) e ](1 e ae )e ae ( k i )
ae
k = 1,2,..., n (12)
Where,

So, R is the reliability of high voltage circuit breaker.

PREDICTION OF THE REMAINING LIFE OF

HIGH VOLTAGE CIRCUIT BREAKER
After getting the fuzzy reliability of high voltage circuit
breaker, the forecasting value of fuzzy reliability can be
obtained though the improved grey GIM (1, 1) method
based on the step data sequence.

Improved gray GIM (1, 1) model based on the

step data
When the high voltage circuit breaker goes through
maintenance, the data sequence of its running parametric
will have a step mutation, if we directly use the GM (1, 1)
method to forecast, the errors of the predicting results
will be larger. To this end, this paper put forward the
following improved grey GIM (1, 1) forecasting method.
The original data sequence of high voltage circuit breaker
( 0)
is known, X
= ( x (0) (1), x (0 ) (2),..., x ( 0) (n)) , if the
high voltage circuit breaker is maintained at the moment i,
the data after the moment i will have a step mutation.
Then the data after the time i can be predicted use the

as the correction

1 k i
(k i) =
0 k < i

parameter.
Equality (16) is the improved grey GIM(1, 1) model, the
parameter value can be predicted though that.

ng the remaining life

Predicti
redicting
This paper study the residual life of high voltage circuit
breaker from the perspective of the fuzzy reliability, After
getting the fuzzy reliability of high voltage circuit breaker,
the forecasting value of fuzzy reliability can be obtained
though the improved grey GIM (1, 1) method based on
the step data sequence. R(k) represents the fuzzy
reliability of high voltage circuit breaker at the year k,
R(k+1) represents the fuzzy reliability of high voltage
circuit breaker at the year k+1, RL represents the limit
value of the fuzzy reliability of high voltage circuit
breaker, if
(13)
R(k) > R L > R(k + 1)
So, the year k+1 is the life of high voltage circuit breaker,
combining with its several years, the remaining life of
high voltage circuit breaker can be get.

data before the time i by GM (1, 1) model, notes for: x ( k ) ,

EXAMPLE

k = i, i + 1,..., n .
(0)
Defined e ( k ) as the error between the actual value

This paper uses water content of the arcing indoor of a

220kV SF6 high voltage circuit breaker as an example,
with the method in this article, to realize the evaluation
about water content of the arcing indoor.
A 220kV SF6 high voltage circuit breaker, running 9
years. By the online monitoring system, the value of
water content in the arcing chamber can be get: 83ppm,
88ppm, 92ppm, 97ppm, 101ppm, 107ppm, 111ppm,
114ppm, 118ppm. The error value of dew sensor is
known, error 10%.
According to the randomness of the water content
distribution of high voltage circuit breaker, the water
content monitoring value x follows a normal distribution.
The mean u and standard deviation of the water
contents every year can be get, with the application of the
"3 principle". As is shown in Table 1:

(0)

with predicted value, then:

e (0 ) (k ) = x ( 0) (k ) x ( 0) (k )
k = i, i + 1,..., n (9)
So the sequence of error as follows:

E ( 0 ) = {e (0) (i ), e ( 0) (i + 1),..., e ( 0) (n)}

k = i, i + 1,..., n (10)
The GM (1, 1) model of error as follows:

e (1) (i + 1) = [e (0) (i )

b a ( k i ) b
]e
+
a
a

(11)
Combining with the traditional GM(1, 1) model[5-6], the

Tab. 1 The parameter value and reliability of the water content in arc chamber
parameter
u

Paper No CP0656

83
88
92
2.76667
2.93333 3.06667
0.999993 0.999988 0.999984

97
101
3.23333
3.36667
0.999975 0.999964

107
111
114
118
3.56667
3.7
3.8
3.93333
0.999941 0.999918 0.999896 0.999858

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5th International Conference on Electricity Distribution

Shanghai, 5-6 Sept 2012

Paper CP0656

Tab. 2 Predictive value of the reliability of the water content in arc chamber for the calendar yea
yearr
year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Fuzzy reliability 0.999993 0.999984 0.999978 0.999970 0.999958 0.999942 0.999920 0.999889 0.999846 0.999786
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
0.999703 0.999588 0.999428 0.999206 0.998898 0.998470 0.997877 0.997053 0.995910 0.994323 0.992120 0.989063
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
0.984820 0.978930 0.970755 0.959408 0.943659 0.921800 0.891459 0.849346 0.790895 0.709764 0.597156 0.440858

According to the regulation of "the power equipment

preventive
testing
regulations"
(DL/TS%-1996),
Combined with the fuzziness of the state of water content,
also used the "3 principle", its membership function
could be that: u X ( x ) ~ N (300
50 ) . the fuzzy
reliability R about water content in arcing chamber can
be calculated through the monte carlo simulation by the
MATLAB software, as is shown in table 1.
The fuzzy reliability of the future can be forecasted
though the GIM (1, 1) prediction method which is
mentioned in section 4.2, with the known data. as is
shown in table 2.
Put the fuzzy reliability over the years and the
corresponding year into a drawing, the trends is shown in
Figure 3.The trends between the fuzzy reliability with
running year.
2

CONCLUSION
This paper establish a life evaluation model based on
fuzzy reliability, using the uncertainty theory about
probability and fuzzy and the online monitoring
technology. For the mutational data caused by
maintenance, it uses a improved gray GIM(1, 1)
forecasting method based on the step data sequence to
predict the remaining life of the high voltage circuit
breaker. This method not only has the theoretical basis,
but also accords with the actual situation, it has solved
problem that the uncertainty factors influence the
assessment of the remaining life of high voltage circuit
breaker. Finally, it proves the proposed method has
certain practical value and practical significance though a
example.

REFERENCES

Fig. 3 The trend of reliability predictive value with

the running tim
timee
By the above analysis, we can conclude that the water
content will be increasing continually, with the increasing
of the service years, so that the fuzzy reliability also
decreases. As is shown in figure 3, the fuzzy reliability in
the year 29 is 0.891459, the fuzzy reliability in the year
30 is 0.849346, and the fuzzy reliability declines more
quickly, in addition the fuzzy reliability in the year 30 has
been less than 0.85. Predictably, the high voltage circuit
breaker should be repaired or replaced in the year 30,
making water content of its arcing chambe down to the
allowed value. Thus, the remaining life is 30-9=21 years.
The results is consistent with the fact, that the life
expectancy of a SF6 high voltage circuit breaker is above
25 years.

Paper No CP0656

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maintenance", China Electric Power Press, Beijing,
China, 158-165.
[2] Li Dongyan, Rong Mingzhe, 2011, "Review of
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87-92.
[3] Neumann C, Schneider J, Balzer G, 2008, "Strategy
for End of Life Assessment for High Voltage Circuit
Breakers", CIGRE, A3-101.
[4] Chen Weirong, Song Yonghua, Sun Jinxin, 2000,
"Concept present situation of monitoring of power
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vol.11, 12-17.
[5] Zhang Yan, 2000, "The Evaluation Method of Fuzzy
Reliability in Electric Power Network Planning",
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[6] Zhong W Q, Zhang Z W, 2009, "A Model for
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