Demographic balancing eq

Starting population + ( Births Deaths ) + ( Immigration Emigration ) = Ending population

PY of exposure
number of occurrences
risk of occurrence

Rate =

Rate[0,T] =

number of occurrences between Time 0T

PY lived the pop between Time 0T

CBR[0,T] =

number of birthsthe pop between Time 0T

PY lived the pop between Time 0T

CDR[0,T] =

number of deathsthe pop between Time 0T

PY lived the pop between Time 0T

CRIM[0,T] =

number of migrationsthe pop between Time 0T

PY lived the pop between Time 0T

CROM[0,T] =

number of outmigrationsthe pop between Time 0T

PY livedthe pop between Time 0T

CGR[0,T] = CBR[0,T] - CDR[0,T] + CRIM[0,T] - CROM[0,T]

Doubling time =

deathsage range x
PY lived the age range x
Age-specific death rate nMx[0,T] =
=
x+ n between time 0T x +n between Time 0T

nDx
nPYLx
CDR = summ of nMx * nCx (changes in age dist.)
Age-standardized CDR = summ nMx * nCxstandard (if 2 then average age structure, multiple then
median/mean)

deaths

cohort c

n x

cohort c between ages x x +n

ndx
lx

number of peoplethe cohort c who reach xth birthday

Life Table age-specific DR between x and x+n, probability of dying between x and x+n, survival of cohort
to particular age, life expec at birth, remaining life expec at x
lx = number of people still alive at x
d = number of people dying between x and x+n = lx - lx+n

n x

Lx = PYL between x and x+n = n * lx+n + nax * ndx

mx =

nd x
nL x

a = avg PYL by people dying in between x and x+n

n x

q =

n x

nd x
lx

p = prob of surviving from x to x+n = 1 - nqx

n x

Tx = PYL above age x = nLx + Tx+n

e0 = life expec at birth =
ex = life expec at x =

T0
l0

Tx
lx

Cohort life table real cohort followed throughout life; backward looking, cannot compute for cohorts that
have not died out
Period life table what would happen in a hypothetical cohort on indiv if subjected to mortality conditions of
a specific period for all of its life, synthetic cohort, describe dying out of synthetic cohort
Uppercase N and D are observed mid-year pop and deaths respectively
mx = nMx =

q =

n x

nDx
nNx

nn m x
1+ ( nnax )nmx

ndx
lx

q =1

infinity x

pick l0 = 100,000
lx+n = lx * nPx
d = lx lx+n

n x

Lx = n * lx+n + nax * ndx

Tx = nLx + Tx+n
ex =

Tx
lx

Relative risk RR = differences in mortality risks = worst/optimal

Population attributable risk (PAR) = if everyone optimal, how much mortality decline? = overall optimal
Population attributable risk fraction (PARF) = proportion of deaths attributable to the presence of non-optimal
health conditions = (overall optimal)/overall
DALY - Number of healthy life years (5) x the disability weight of full health (0) + life years with disability
(45) x disabilty weight for deafness (0.33) + life years lost (30) x the weighting of death (1)

Cost-effectiveness ratio (CER): compares the cost of an activity/intervention with the known or expected
health gain
HIV incidence rate =

HIV prevalence rate =

PY lived exposed
of new HIV infections during time period
risk duringtime period

of people living with HIV infections during time period

total population during time period

Economic/Rational Choice Theories of HIV/AIDS

EUm = B C [Ptf (1 Pm)Pf ] and EUf = B C [Ptm(1 Pf )Pm]
EU: expected utility of unsafe sex (relative to safe sex)
B: gross net benets of unsafe sex as compared to safe sex
C: costs of becoming HIVpositive
Pf : Probability of female being HIV positive
Pm: probability of male being HIV positive
Ptf , Ptm : HIV transmission probabilities (female-to-male and male-to-female respectively)