Title: Example Fire Risk Event Tree Model ETA-01

Author:
Thomas F. Barry
tfbarry@fireriskforum.com
www.fireriskforum.com

Overview/Abstract:
This the first of what I hope will be a group of generic event tree fire
risk modeling examples, which will be listed in the RISKTools section
of the Fire Risk Forum web site.
These example event tree models are intented as free educational
tools to promote quantitative fire risk analysis. ETA-01 is presented
as a problem example to introduce the use and application of fire
risk event tree analysis as a decision support tool.

Notice to Users:
These spreadsheet templates are provided as-is.
No representations or warranties are made regarding their
accuracy or suitability for a particular application. The author of these
templates has no control over their application and therefore accepts no
responsibility for their use. People using these templates should
be familiar with proper use and application and also with the limitations
associated with their use.

Fire Risk Forum RiskTOOLS

From Toolbox: Excel Templates
Listed: Sepember 2003

References:
1. Barry, Thomas F., Risk-Informed, Performance-Based
Industrial Fire Protection, TFBarry Publcations and
Tennessee Valley Publications, Knoxville, TN. 2002
Available at www.fireriskforum.com

This workbook contains the following worksheets:

1. Problem/Exercise Setup
2. Event Tree
3. Time Line
4. Risk Tolerance Profiles
5. Alternatives Evaluation
6. Cost Evaluation
7. Decision
Every Fire Safety Professional should know how to
perform Fire Event Tree Analysis to support design projects,
loss expectancy estimates, scenario-based training, and
loss investigations.
TFB

Event Tree Analysis Example Exercise ETA-01

Purpose:
This exercise is for educational purposes only. The example problem,
example data, example risk tolerance profiles are for example purposes
only, solely intended to introduce the use of fire risk event tree analysis
as a decision support tool.
Problem:
The Descision Maker is faced with the problem of how to optimize fire prevention and
fire protection improvements to meet the Company's Risk Tolerance criteria
in the most cost-effective manner.
Alternatives:
The Decision Maker has been presented with the following risk reduction alternatives:
Initial
Cost of Improvement
$26,000.00

Annual
Cost
$1,000.00

2. Make modification upgrades to the automatic detection

system to improve performance success probability to 0.95

$15,000.00

$500.00

3. Install an automatic fire suppression system to provide local area

fire hazards protection. The system will be independent of the ceiling
level detection system and designed for a minimum 0.95 performance.

$45,000.00

$5,000.00

4. Upgrade the plant's Fire Brigade performance success to 0.85

by additional manual fire fighting and mobile response equipment

$30,000.00

$10,000.00

5. Make improvements to area fire barrier walls to completely isolate

the fire hazard; expected performance success probability 0.95.

$68,000.00

$500.00

Alternative
1. Reduce initiating event likelihood to moderate by
reducing ignition factors and human error potential
INFO

INFO

INFO

Exercise:
Step 1
Review Event Tree worksheet (2. Event Tree, 3. Time Line) and compare the Existing Risk to the Risk
tolerance criteria in the Risk Tolerance worksheet ( 4. Risk Tolerance Profiles)
Step 2
Go to the Alternatives Evaluation worksheet (5. Alternatives Eval) and assess Risk Reduction strategies
to determine if they meet the Risk Tolerance criteria.
Note: In the Event Tree worksheet, evaluate each of the above alternatives by changing the likelihood or
probability of success numbers to determine what is the optimized strategy in terms of meeting the Company's
Risk Tolerance criteria in the most cost-effective manner. Note: A 'Strategy" is a set of alternatives or options.

Step 3
Go to the Cost Evaluation worksheet (6. Cost Eval) and compare the costs of Risk Reduction Strategies
Step 4
Go to the Decisions Worksheet (7. Decisions) and indicated what recommendations you would make.

EXAMPLE: Generic Ev ent Tree Fire Risk Model ETA 01

**INFO**

Source (S)

PROBABILITY DATA TABLE IS BELOW EVENT TREE

Prov ides information and comments

Likelihood Inputs
Maj or Incident Exposure Lev el(s)

Layer of Fire Protection Systems in Pathway (P)

[A]
Initiating
Fire Event
Likelihood

[B]
Automatic
Detection
& Alarms
Successful
**INFO**

**INFO**

[C]
Local Application
Automatic Fire
Suppression
Successful
**INFO**

[D]
Manual
Fire Fighting
Response
Successful
**INFO**

Targets (T)

[E]
Hazard Isolation
Fire Barrier
Integrity
Maintained
**INFO**

0
C-1
"INFO"

[F]

[G]

BRANCH
LINE
I.D.

BRANCH
LINE
LIKELIHOOD

1
**INFO**

0.00E+00

[H]
Life
Safety
Exposure
Level
**INFO**

[I]
Property
Damage
Exposure
Level
**INFO**

0.85
0.7

B-1

3.99E-02

0.4

6.83E-03

0.6

1.03E-02

0.00E+00

D-2

1
E-2

0.3
YES

6.70E-02
Fires / Year

Major Exposure
**INFO**

NO

0
For Bounding
Design Basis Fire

C-2

0.15
0.35

**INFO**

3.52E-03

0.4

2.61E-03

0.6

3.92E-03

D-4

1
E-4

0.65

TIME LINE

1-3

3 - 10

10-30

30-60

**INFO**

Major Exposure

6.70E-02

Minutes

Maj or Life Safety Expsoure

Maj or Property Damage Expsoure

Branch Line 4###

Branch Line

Likelihood of exposure
lev el 3 or greater

3.92E-03
3.92E-03
events/year

Branch Line 8###

Likelihood of
exposure lev el 4
or greater

Tolerable ?

1.03E-02
3.92E-03
1.42E-02
events/year

Tolerable ?

**INFO**

**INFO**

EXAMPLE EVENT TREE PROBABILITY DATA TABLE - EXISTING RISK

Ev ent ID

Ev ent

[A]

Initiating fire
ev ent occurs

[B]

Automatic detection
and alarms
successful

Frequency (F) or
Probability (P)

Basis /
Reference(s)

High
0.067 (F)
fire ev ents/year

1 fire/15 years
Historical data and
engineering j udgement.

Remarks
Refer to Chapter 4
in Reference 1.

References X,Y,Z,
0.085 (P)

Engineering rev iew and analysis.

Refer to Chapter 6
in Reference 1.

References X,Y,Z,
[C]

Local application
automatic fire
suppression successful

[D1]

Manual Fire Fighting

Response Successful
- giv en that fire detection
system [B] which notifies
fire brigade IS successful

[D2]

Manual Fire Fighting

Response Successful
- giv en that fire detection
system [B] which notifies
fire brigade IS NOT successful

[E]

Hazard Isolation
Fire Barrier
Integrity Maintained
(IS successful)

0 (P)
Presently does
not exist;
assigned zero
success probability

This would be a
new installation that is
being ev aluated as an
improv ement alternativ e

0.7 (P)

Engineering rev iew and analysis.

Would be designed to be
independent of ceiling lev el
smoke detection system and
meet minium 0.95 performance
success design
Refer to Chapter 6
in Reference 1.

References X,Y,Z,

0.35 (P)
For this example, a
v alue of 50% of [D1]
was assigned

References X,Y,Z,

Engineering rev iew and analysis.

0.40 (P)

Engineering rev iew and analysis.

References X,Y,Z,

Refer to Chapter 6
in Reference 1.

Refer to Chapter 6
in Reference 1.

3.Time Line

EXAMPLE: Fire Exposure Profile ETA 01

[A]
Initiating
Fire Event
Likelihood

TIME LINE

[B]
Automatic
Detection
& Alarms
Successful

[C]
Local Application
Automatic Fire
Suppression
Successful

[D]
Manual
Fire Fighting
Response
Successful

[E]
Hazard Isolation
Fire Barrier
Integrity
Maintained

1-3

3 - 10

10-30

30-60

**INFO**

Minutes

Example; Uncontrolled Fire Exposure Profile

Fire Exposure
Modeled at
Defined
Target(s)
e.g.
. radiant heat
. temperature
. smoke

Fire Spread & Propagation to

Secondary Fuel Sources
Start of Structural Failure
of Steel Roof Beams

Fuel Package
Fire Growth

Fuel Package
Peak Heat Release Rate
Equipment Damage from Temperature
and Radiant Heat

Operator Injuries from Temperature

and Smoke

10

30
Minutes

Page 5

EXAMPLE: Risk Tolerance Profile for Life Safety Exposure ETA 01

LIKELIHOOD **
Fire Exposure/ Year

INFO

1.00E-01
1.0 / 10 unit years
1.00E-02
1.0 / 100 unit yrs

Existing Risk
Not Tolerable

An example of Life Safety Exposure Categories :

Life Safety Exposure:
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Heavy
4 - High
5 - Major

1.00E-03
1.0 / 1000 unit yrs
1.00E-04
1.0 / 10,000 unit yrs
1.00E-05
1.0 / 100,000 unit years

Tolerable Risk

1.00E-06
1.0 / 1,000,000 unit yrs
1

Potential Consequences:
Minor First Aid ( i.e. smoke inhalation)
Single person injury requiring hospital treatment
Mutiple person injuries
Life threatening injury or death ON-SITE
Life threatening injuries or death OFF-SITE

** This is the annualized likelihood tolerance limit for fire exposure

(i.e. with existing or proposed protection layers in-place) versus
the Life Safety or Property Damage Exposure categories or levels.
This is NOT the Initiating Fire Likelihood ( see Event [A] in Event Tree).
This IS the fire scenario incident outcome likelihood ( see Event Tree
Branch Line Likelihood, Event [G]).

Life Safety Exposure Categories

Unit years indicate a likelihood associated with a defined fire

source boundary (unit area); not necessarily an entire facility.

EXAMPLE: Risk Tolerance Profile for Property Damage Exposure ETA 01

LIKELIHOOD **
Fires Exposure/ Year
An example of Property Damage Exposure Categories:
1.00E-01
1.0 / 10 unit years

Existing Risk
Not Tolerable

1.00E-02
1.0 / 100 unit yrs
1.00E-03
1.0 / 1000 unit yrs
1.00E-04
1.0 / 10,000 unit yrs

Tolerable Risk
Tolerable Risk

Property Damage
Exposure
1 - Slight
2 - Light
3 - Moderate

10-25

4 - Heavy
5 - Major

25-60
60-100

1.00E-05
1.0 / 100,000 unit years
1

Damage Factor
Range ( %)
0-1
1-10

Property Damage Exposure Categories

NOTE: Additional Risk Tolerance Profiles could be developed for Business Interruption potential,
environmental consequences, media reaction- loss of customer potential, etc.

General Definition
Limited localized minor damage not requiring repairs.
Significant localized damage of some components
not requiring major repairs.
Significant localized damage to many components
requiring repairs or replacement
Extensive equipment and struture damage
Major widespread damage to equipment, major structural
damage, potential for release of contaminated combustion
products off-site.

5.Alternatives Eval

Example - Risk Reduction Alternatives Evaluation ETA 01

FROM EVENT TREE ANALYSIS

EXISTING RISK
Situation

[A]
Initiating
Fire Event
Likelihood

[B]
Automatic
Detection
& Alarms
Successful

[C]
Local Application
Automatic Fire
Suppression
Successful

[D]
Manual
Fire Fighting
Response
Successful

[E]
Hazard Isolation
Fire Barrier
Integrity
Maintained

0.067

0.85

0
No System

0.7

0.4

LIFE SAFETY

PROPERTY DAMAGE

Likelihood of
Expsoure Level 3
or greater

Likelihood of
Expsoure Level 4
or greater

3.92E-03

1.42E-02

Does NOT meet Risk Tolerance Criteria

Risk Reduction
0.033
Strategy 1
Improvements to
reduce likelihood
from high to
moderate

0.95
Improvement
to fire detection
system

Risk Reduction
0.033
Strategy 2
Improvements to
reduce likelihood
from high to
moderate

0.95
Improvement
to fire detection
system

0.95
Install an automatic
fire suppression
system for local
hazard protection

Same
No
Improvements

Same
No
system
installed

0.85
Improvements
made

Same
No
Improvements

"INFO"
Meets Risk Tolerance Criteria ?

0.95
Improvement
to fire barrier
system made
Meets Risk Tolerance Criteria ?

Risk Reduction
Strategy 3
????????????
Meets Risk Tolerance Criteria ?

Page 7

6.Cost Eval

Example Cost Evaluation ETA 01

Uniform

Assumed

Interest Rate

Future Value

Total

Initial Cost

Annual Cost

Useful Life, Years

%/100

of Annual Costs

Investment

Reduce Initiating Fire Event Likelihood

$26,000.00

$1,000.00

Improve Fire Detection System

$15,000.00

$500.00

ADD Local Fire Suppression System

$45,000.00

$5,000.00

$86,000.00

$6,500.00

15

0.05

($140,260.66)

$226,260.66

Reduce Initiating Fire Event Likelihood

$26,000.00

$1,000.00

Improve Fire Detection System

$15,000.00

$500.00

Upgrade Plant Fire Brigade

$30,000.00

$10,000.00

Improve Fire Barrier / Hazard Isolation

$68,000.00

$500.00

$139,000.00

$12,000.00

15

0.05

($258,942.76)

$397,942.76

Strategy
Strategy 1

Strategy 2

Strategy 3 ????
Note: This is a first-order evaluation. It assumes uniforn
annual costs, and useful life, for all alternatives, and
does not include non-uniform costs such as the costs
associated with periodic parts repair/replacement.

Page 8

7.Decisions

Summarize your Risk-Based Decision ETA 01

A few points:
1. First priority should always be the reduction of the likelihood of fire occurrence,
if feasible technological and administrative measures can be implemented.
2. Always maximize detection and alarm system design effectiveness, availability, and reliability.
3. Evaluate layers of protection that get you down to tolerable risk levels, considering initial costs, annual
costs such as IMT (inspection, maintenance, testing), useful life, and risk monitoring efforts, such as
potential future change in occupancy,hazard, risk, and impariments to protection systems.

INFO Suggested Strategy, Recommendations; Comments on Uncertainty Issues

Page 9