STRATEGI INVESTASI MENGAPA BERINVESTASI?

‰ Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset)

terhadap pengaruh inflasi
‰ Untuk mendapatkan keuntungan
yang lebih besar dimasa yang akan
datang
‰ Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastian
pendapatan dimasa yang akan
datang
Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan
DEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA

COMMON MISCONCEPTION KEMANA BERINVESTASI?

‰ Investasi pada saham hampir sama

dengan judi
‰ Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi)
Physical Assets Financial Assets
memiliki pendapatan yang tetap
‰ Produk reksa dana adalah produk
bank
‰ Produk reksa dana mirip dengan ƒ Land ƒ Vehicles ƒ Capital ƒ Money
deposito ƒ Property ƒ Precious metals market market

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 INVESTASI DI PASAR UANG INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL

‰ Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI)

‰ Saham (Stocks)
‰ Deposito Berjangka (Time
Deposits) ‰ Obligasi (Bonds)
‰ Commercial Papers ‰ Reksa Dana (Investment
‰ Promissory Notes
Funds)

‰ Obligasi yang jatuh tempo ‰ Derivatives

kurang dari 1 (satu) tahun

RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF

‰ Risk / Return Characteristics

Saham
Low Risk
Return

Return

Low Return Obligasi

High Risk
High Potential Return
Reksa Dana

Deposito

Standard Deviation (Risk) Risk

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 RISK FROM AN INVESTORS HOW INVESTORS CAN MANAGE
PERSPECTIVE RISKS

Equities „ Business Risk „ Don’t put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify
„ Credit Risk
Issuer
Specific „ Liquidity Risk „ Take a long-term view
Risk „ Operational Risk
„ Legal Risk „ Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead
Investors Bonds and Cash

„ Political risk „ Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with
Market Risk „ FX risk
„ Economic Risk

Reksa Dana
Perhaps
Perhapsthe
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Do
Do not invest in anythingyou
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DIVERSIFICATION
TIPE-TIPE INVESTOR
$1,500 $1,500
Mid-1970s Recession 1987 Market Crash
$1,324
Diversified Portfolio
Stocks
Diversified Portfolio
Stocks
‰ Conservative Investors
$1,149
‰ Moderate Investors
$1,014 $1,227
$1,000 $1,000
‰ Aggressive Investors

$500 $500
Dec Dec Dec Jun Jun Jun Jun Dec
1972 1973 1974 1976 1987 1988 1989 1990
Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills.
Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively Source: Ibbotson Associates.

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SEBELUM BERINVENTASI…
STRATEGI INVESTASI

‰ Tujuan investasi
9 Keamanan Dana
9 Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan
9 Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan ™ Buy and Hold Strategy
9 Pertumbuhan

™ Active Strategy
‰ Jangka waktu investasi

‰ Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung

‰ Keadaan keuangan

‰ Pengetahuan
9 Tentang investasi secara umum
9 Tentang produk yang akan dibeli

BUY AND HOLD BUY AND HOLD

‰ Conservative Investors ‰ Moderate Investors

Stock
30% Bond
30%
Stock
Bond 50%
40%

Money Money
Market Market
30% 20%

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 BUY AND HOLD ACTIVE STRATEGY
‰ Aggressive Investors
‰ Assets Allocation (Where)
Bond
20% ‰ Securities Selection (Which)

‰ Market Timing (When)

Money
Market
10%
Stock
70%

MAKING THE RIGHT ASSETS

ASSETS ALLOCATION
ALLOCATION DECISION
‰ Stock
Determinants of Portfolio Performance
100%
90%
80%
Agg
70%
60%
50%
94% Mod
40%
30%
20%
Con
10% 4%
2%
0%
Securities
Selection
Asset
Allocation
Market
Timing
0 20 40 60 80 100

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 ASSETS ALLOCATION ASSETS ALLOCATION

‰ Bond ‰ Money Market

Agg Agg

Mod
Mod

Con
Con

0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100

SECURITIES SELECTION BIG CAP VS SMALL CAP

BIG CAP SMALL CAP

‰ Big cap vs. small cap stocks
Emphasis on large and
‰ Growth vs. value stocks Focus well-established
Emphasis on small,
emerging, and start-up
companies companies
‰ Short-term vs. long term bonds
Company Reliable sales and Sales and earnings
fluctuate, dividends
‰ Fixed rate vs. variable rate Characteristics dividends
are minor

Usually diversified, so Un-diversified, so

Risks risk is low volatility of earnings
and risk is high

No dividends but
Return Moderate returns that
potentially high or low
include dividends
capital appreciation

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 GROWTH VS VALUE LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM
BOND
GROWTH VALUE
Emphasis on companies
Focus Emphasis on growing whose market value are
companies low relative to earnings,
dividends, or assets
LONG TERM SHORT TERM
Company
High P/E ratio Low P/E ratio
Characteristics
Price Sensitivity Higher Lower
Tend to be more Tend to be less
Risks volatile volatile

High cap appreciation Moderate or low

Return with little or no capital appreciations
dividends with high dividends

FIXED RATE VS VARIABLE VALUASI OBLIGASI

RATE
4 Analisa berdasarkan prinsip Time Value of Money
(TVM)
4 Harga obligasi:
INT M
+
Vb = Σ
Fixed Variable (1 + kd)t (1 + kd)N

Sensitivity to Higher Lower Kd = imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor

interest rate N = lama jatuh tempo obligasi
INT = jumlah pembayaran bunga
M = nilai pari obligasi
t = 1 sampai dengan N

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 CONTOH SOAL MARKET TIMING

Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan

tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun. Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun?
Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah
10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut? ‰ Pasar akan naik apabila banyak
investor yang menempatkan dananya
12 M 12 M 12 M 100 M di pasar modal
Vb = + + +
(1 + 10%)1 (1 + 10%)2 (1 + 10%)3 (1 + 10%)3 ‰ Pasar akan turun apabila banyak
= Rp. 104.973.703.982 atau 104.97% investor yang menarik dananya dari
pasar modal

MARKET CYCLE EARLY RECOVERY

‰ Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun

‰ Big cap growth stocks ‰ Small cap growth stocks
‰ Long term bonds ‰ Intermediate bonds ‰ Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa
pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi
Recession Early Recovery
4 1 Investasi di:
3 2

Stagflation Late Recovery ‰ Small cap growth stocks

‰ Intermediate bonds
‰ Big cap value stocks ‰ Small cap value stocks
‰ Short term bonds ‰ Intermediate bonds

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 LATE RECOVERY STAGFLATION

‰ Inflasi mulai bergerak naik ‰ Inflasi naik dengan tajam

‰ Ekonomi berkembang pesat ‰ Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat

Investasi di: Investasi di:

‰ Small cap value stocks ‰ Large cap value stocks

‰ Intermediate term bonds ‰ Short term bonds

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION
RECESSION FOR EACH STAGE

Conservative Moderate Aggressive

‰ Inflasi menurun tajam
50% stocks 70% stocks 90% stocks
‰ Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat Early 40% bonds 25% bonds 10% bonds
Recovery 10% cash 5% cash 0% cash

Investasi di: Late

30% stocks 50% stocks 70% stocks
20% bonds 10% bonds 0% bonds
Recovery 50% cash 40% cash 30% cash
‰ Large cap growth stocks
10% stocks 30% stocks 50% stocks
‰ Long Term bonds Stagflation 10% bonds 25% bonds 10% bonds
80% cash 45% cash 40% cash

15% stocks 40% stocks 60% stocks

Recession 65% bonds 45% bonds 30% bonds
20% cash 15% cash 10% cash

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 MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY

• Reduction of Risk over Time — 1926-2002

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
150% 1-Year Holding Periods
125% 5-Year Holding Periods
100% 20-Year Holding Periods Definisi
Compound Annual Return
75% Menempatkan dana secara bertahap pada
50% suatu portofolio untuk menghindari risiko
25% fluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek
12.1% 10.2% 5.5% 3.8%
0%
-25% Tujuan
-50% ‰ Mengurangi risiko investasi
Small Large Government Treasury
-75% Company
Stocks
Company
Stocks
Bonds Bills ‰ Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik
Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period 1926-2002 Source: IbbotsonAssociates

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING STRATEGI INVESTASI

NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi

1.000 10.000.000 10.000 1.000 x 10.000 = 10.000.000

500 0 0 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000

750 0 0 750 x 10.000 = 7.500.000

NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi

1.000 4.000.000 4.000 1.000 x 4.000 = 4.000.000

500 3.000.000 6.000 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000

750 3.000.000 4.000 750 x 14.000 = 10.500.000

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