Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Amin
Gis and Remote Sensing Sector,
Egyptian Mineral Resource and
Geological Survey Authority.
Cairo, Egypt.
e-mail: kareemamin2001@hotmail.com
Digital Elevation
Model of Saudi Arabia
ABSTRACT
Flash floods are considered as catastrophic phenomena possessing major
hazardous threat to many of infrastructure facilities, especially new construction
projects in Saudi Arabia. This study deals with the evaluation of flash flood hazard
in the ungauged Wadi Dahdah basin depending on its detailed morphometric
characteristics, hydrological studies, meteorological Analysis, and hydraulic
modeling. For this study, ASTER data were used for preparing digital elevation
model (DEM), geographical information system (GIS) was used in the evaluation
of linear, areal and relief aspects of morphometric parameters, Remote sensing
data (Landsat8) to analysis and preparing Digital Land Use/ Land cover mapping,
using some special software for rainfall analysis and estimating IDF curves and
finally using WMS and HES-RAS for Hydrological analysis and hydraulic modeling.
Thus can predict the probability occurrence of floods at various frequency times
and determine the intensity of the flood (depth and velocity of flood water) inside
the stream of the Wadi, and in case of important construction exposed to the risk
of floods must to develop optimal solutions that control of flood waters and
through the establishment of different protection works such as dams and storage
lakes and drainage channels and culvert ... and other. So it was important to make
sufficient hydrological studies to safety this sites of the Probabilities dangers of
flooding.
Al Jawf
Tabuk
Ha'il
Al Quassim
Al Madinah
Ar Riyad
Ash Sharqiyah
`Asir
Digital Elevation
Model of Aser
Najran
.
!
Al Bahah
1
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
Pour point
Watershed
Makkah
Introduction
Jizan
430'0"E
2
440'0"E
Low : 288
1
Flash floods often occur in arid regions as a consequence of excessive rainfall and
occasionally cause major losses of property and life (Subyani 2009). Flood hazard
mapping is a component needed for appropriate land use in the flooded areas. It
creates easily read, rapidly accessible charts and maps which mitigate the effects
of floods (Bapalu and Sinha 2005). Flood hazard mapping in arid regions is an
extremely important but difficult task; the main reason is the scarcity of data in
arid regions. Flood hazard mapping is very important for catchment management
(i.e. for sustainable development of the water resources and for protection from
the flood hazard and drought). Rainfall and runoff data are the essential
hydrological elements in the flood mapping of basin systems. So, because the
study area is suffering from scarcity of data and
the flood inundation maps are dependent on the topographic
and geomorphic features of the Wadi (
et al. 2012), this study is based on the
integration between physiographic features of the study area and GIS techniques.
The integration of GIS to create flood hazard maps and disaster decision support
has been continually upgraded and widespread since the beginning of the
twenty-first century, as a result of the increased availability of spatial databases
and GIS software (Zerger and Smith 2003). Several studies are cited in the
literature, relating to flood hazard mapping and zonation using GIS (Sui and
Maggio 1999; Merzi and Aktas 2000; Guzzetti, and Tonelli 2004; Sanyal and Lu
2006; He et al. 2003; Fernandez and Lutz 2010). Drainage basin characteristics in
many areas of the world have been studied using conventional geomorphologic
approaches (Horton 1945; Strahler 1964; Rudriaih et al. 2008; Nageswararao et
al. 2010; Al Saud 2009). Gardiner (1990) indicated that in some studies, the
morphometric characteristics of basins have been used to predict and describe
flood peaks and estimation of erosion rate, underlying the importance of such
studies. The application of geomorphological principles to flood potential or
flood risk has led to a noteworthy amount of researches, attempting to identify the
relationships between basin morphometric and flooding impact (Patton 1988).
Identification of drainage networks within basins or subbasins can be achieved
using traditional methods such as field observations and topographic maps, or
alternatively with advanced methods using remote sensing and digital elevation
model (Macka 2001; Maidment 2002).
420'0"E
440'0"E
420'0"E
200'0"N
200'0"N
.
!
`Asir
Kilometers
190'0"N
190'0"N
440'0"E
420'0"E
180'0"N
430'0"E
180'0"N
Methodology
Digital Elevation Modeling
Morphometric
Analysis
Basic Terrain
Analysis
Hydrological
Analysis
Slope
Digital image
Stream Power
Terrain Ruggedness
Aspect
processing
Index
Index
Relative Relief
Topographic
Downslope
Position
Image
classification
Wetness
Index
Relative
Slope
Distance Gradient
Position
NADVI
Melton Ruggedness
Topographic
Drainage
Number
Position Index
Pattern Analysis
Land-use/Land
Cover Map
Hypsometric Curve Stream Order
LS Factor
Rainfall
data
Meteorologic
Analysis
Hydro-Morphometric Parameters
Hydrological Modeling
Floodplain and Hydraulic
Model
Soil data
SCS Curve
Number
Aspect
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
Aspect Map
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Flat (-1)
North (0-22.5)
Northeast (22.5-67.5)
East (67.5-112.5)
4152'30"E
Southeast (112.5-157.5)
South (157.5-202.5)
Southwest (202.5-247.5)
West (247.5-292.5)
Watershed
Northwest (292.5-337.5)
North (337.5-360)
190'0"N
Slope
Slope
<5
Slope analysis is an important parameter in geomorphological studies for watershed development and
important for morphometric analysis. The slope
elements, in turn, are controlled by the
climatomorphogenic processes in areas having rock of
varying resistance (Magesh et al. 2011; Gayen et al.
2013). A slope map of the study area is calculated
based on ASTER GDEMv2 data using the spatial
analysis tool in ARC GIS-10.3. Slope grid is identified
as the maximum rate of change in value from each
cell to its neighbors (Burrough 1986). The degree of
slope in W.Dahdah watershed varies from <5 to
>70.
The slope map is shown in Fig. 2b. Has higher slope
degree results in rapid runoff and increased erosion
rate (potential soil loss) with less ground water
recharge potential. Higher slope is identified in Northeastern part of the basin where it originates.
5 - 9.8
9.8 - 16.4
16.4 24
24 - 34
34- 45
45 56
56 70
>70
4149'30"E
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
1857'0"N
!
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
.
!
3.6
Kilometers
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
Relative relief
Relative relief is difference between summit level, the
highest altitude for a given area, and base level, lowest
altitude for a given area (Dury, 1962, p. 174). It plays an
important morphometric variable used for the
assessment of morphological characteristics of any
topography (Gayen et al. 2013. The highest relative
relief is calculated as 334 m, while the lowest value is
recorded as 2 m Fig. 3a. The low relief indicates that the
northern and central Southern area under W.Dahdah
basin is flat to gentle slope type. Therefore, the area
could be basically used for agricultural activities around
stream sides due to being flat in nature and also a water
accessibility. 1 ridge > + 1
2 upper slope > 0.5 =< 1
3 middle slope> -0.5, < 0.5, slope > 5 deg
4 flats slope >= -0.5, =< 0.5 , slope <= 5 deg
5 lower slopes >= -1.0, < 0.5
6 valleys < -1.0
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
193'0"N
Legend
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
Slope position
Moderately positive
Positive
(cliff edge)
190'0"N
(upper slope)
Very positive
(ridge)
190'0"N
gentle
plains
gentle
depression cliff
cliff
lower lateral constant slope lateral upper
valley bottom base slope valleys
ridges slope edge
saddles
More negative
4149'30"E
(cliff base)
Zero, low slope
(flat)
4149'30"E
hill top
ridge top
More positive
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
VALUE
0 - 0.06
6. - 0.2
0.2 - 0.4
0.4 - 0.73
7. - 1
1857'0"N
.
!
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
1858'30"N
Relative Relief
VALUE
2 - 23
23 - 29
29 - 43
1857'0"N
43 - 74
74 - 334
.
!
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Legend
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
190'0"N
4152'30"E
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
190'0"N
4149'30"E
Downslope Distance
Gradient
4152'30"E
4149'30"E
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
Value
High : 0.40
VALUE
<2.5 Flat
>2.5 Rugged
1857'0"N
1857'0"N
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
Elevation at point pt
Mean Elevation neighborhood
3.6
Kilometers
60
100
Flat
0 0.450.9
Hypsometric Curve
120
Slope
Mean Elevation in
Neighborhood
Elevation at point pt
50
Elevation at point pt
80
Hypsometric curve
Hypsometric curves are non-dimensional measure of the
proportion of the catchment area above a given elevation.
According to Schumm (1956), Strahler (1964), Leopold et
al. (1964) and Hurtrez et al. (1999), hypsometric curves are
related to geomorphic and tectonic evolution of drainage
basins in terms of their forms and processes. Strahler
(1952, 1957, and 1964) identified three types of
landforms, namely, young, mature and monadnock on the
basis of hypsometric curve shape.
Low : 0.040
.
!
.
!
orad
irad
1858'30"N
40
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
60
30
190'0"N
4149'30"E
40
20
20
10
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
Value
Elevation
100
Young Basin
Old Basin
0
1857'0"N
Low : -4.8
0
High : 4.8
0
1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951
Relative Height
80.239521
100
Hypsometric Integral =
0
max
Elevation
max
.
!
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
I. hydrological indices
developed by Beven and Kirkby (1979) within the
runoff model TOPMODEL. It is defined as ln(a/tan)
where a is the local upslope area draining through a
certain point per unit contour length and tan is the
local slope. It Also called Compound Topographic
Index (CTI). Higher CTI values represent drainage
depressions, lower values represent crests and
ridges. And it is related with soil moisture. It
indicates the tendency of a cell to produce runoff,
since areas with high moisture are more prone to
become saturated. The higher the value of this
index in a cell, the higher soil moisture that can be
found in it. Compound Topographic Index
describes the tendency of terrain to accumulate
water. Stream Power and Sediment Transport
Indices describe tendency of flow and can be used
to depict locations of potential erosion.
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Topographic Wetness
Index (TWI)
193'0"N
Legend
Watershed
190'0"N
190'0"N
4149'30"E
4149'30"E
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
Value
High : 32000
Value
High : 10
1857'0"N
1857'0"N
.
!
.
!
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
0 0.450.9
4152'30"E
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
! Pour point
.
Watershed
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
190'0"N
190'0"N
Low : 1
Low : 0
4154'0"E
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
4151'0"E
4152'30"E
4149'30"E
4149'30"E
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
Value
High : 38.9349
1858'30"N
Value
2.8
1857'0"N
1857'0"N
Low : 0
Low : 0
.
!
.
!
0 0.450.9
References:
Marchi, L. & Fontana, G.D. (2005): GIS morphometric indicators for the
analysis of sediment dynamics in mountain basins. Environ. Geol.
48:218-228, DOI 10.1007/s00254-005-1292-4.
1858'30"N
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
Stream Nu Stream
Order
Order
Stream
Order
Length
Stream
Length Ratio
Mean
Stream
Lenght
10.52
0.056
10.52
bifurcation
ratio (Rb).
6
30.25
0.16
5.04
4.8
29
40.72
0.21
1.40
4.1
121
105.61
0.56
0.87
10
157
187.11553
Total
193'0"N
Legend
Watershed
20%
2.42
1.51
Drainage
Density
1.79
Stream Order
Length
187.11553
1
2
3
4
40%
30%
1858'30"N
Value
1858'30"N
High : 241
1857'0"N
Low : 1
.
!
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
Stream
frequency
4149'30"E
10%
According to Horton (1945), streams lengths delineate the total lengths of stream
segment of each of the successive orders in a basin tend to approximate a direct
geometric series in which the first term is the average length of the stream of the
first order. The stream length is a measure of the hydrological characteristics of the
bedrock and the drainage extent. Wherever the bedrock and formation is
permeable, only a small number of relatively longer streams are formed in a welldrained watershed, a large number of streams of smaller length are developed
where the bedrocks and formations are less permeable (Sethupathi et al. 2011).
The result of order stream length in Wadi Dahdah basin is shown in the Table . It is
clearly identified that the cumulative stream length is higher in first-order streams
and decreases as the stream order increases.
Constant
Channel
w.Bifurcati Mainten Topographic
Slope on ratio ance (C)
Texture
190'0"N
0.56
4154'0"E
Catchment
4.69
4151'0"E
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
0.42
4152'30"E
Nu Stream
Order
157
The elongation ratio (Re) is the ratio between the diameter of the circle of the same area as the drainage basin and the maximum length of the basin
[16]. A circular basin is more efficient in the discharge of runoff than an elongated basin [20]. Higher values of elongation ratio show high infiltration
capacity and low runoff, whereas lower Re values which are characterized by high susceptibility to erosion and sediment load (Reddy et al. 2004).The
values of Re vary from 0.6 to 1.0 over a wide variety of climatic and geologic type. Values close to 1.0 are typical of region of very low relief, whereas
values in the range 0.6 to 0.8 are usually associated with high relief and steep ground slope [1]. It can be grouped into three class namely Circular
(>0.9), Oval (0.9-0.8), and Less elongated (<0.7). The Basin shows Re value of 0.72 which falls in the oval class. This reveals that the majority of the area
has high relief and steep sloped.
Drainage Pattern
The drainage pattern in the study area exhibits dendritic to sub dendritic in nature ,The most common form, It develops in regions underlain by
homogeneous material (the subsurface geology has a similar resistance to weathering so there is no apparent control over the direction the tributaries
take).
1.21
0.01
0.042
2.46
40.26
0.61
0.41
0.72
0.31
16.0
673 6.52 0
4197.74
64.79
Root
Area/pi Area*pi
5.76
327.38
Area/pi
33.20
Area
Basin
Main
104.26 Basin
Interpretation of Sf and DD
These low values of drainage density, stream frequency and drainage intensity also imply that surface runoff is not quickly
removed from the basin, making it susceptible to flooding, gully erosion and landslides, particularly in the lower part of the basin.
It is therefore recommended that human activities that could impact negatively on stream network in the basin should be
discouraged.
Drainage Texture (T)
Drainage texture is the total number of stream segments of all orders per perimeter of that area (R.E. Horton,1945). The drainage texture depends
upon a number of natural factors such as rainfall, vegetation, climate, rock and soil type, infiltration capacity, relief and stage of development (K.G.
Smith,1950). The drainage texture is classified into five class such as very coarse (<2), coarse (2-4), moderate (4-6), fine (6-8), very fine (>8). The basin
has a drainage texture of 2.89 which indicates the moderate drainage texture. Similarly, the moderate drainage texture and medium value of drainage
density indicates the presence of moderately resistant semi-permeable material with moderate relief.
Basin relief is the difference in elevation between the highest and lowest points in the basin. It controls the stream gradient and
therefore influences flood patterns and the amount of sediment that can be transported. Hadley and Schumm (1961) showed
that sediment load increases exponentially with basin relief. The high relief value indicates high gravity of water flow, low
permeable and high runoff conditions. The highest point of the studied basin is 961 and the lowest point is 288 meters above
sea level (ASL). Thus the basin relief interval for the studied area is 673 meters.
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Legend
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
. Pour point
!
Watershed
190'0"N
4149'30"E
1858'30"N
Value
1858'30"N
High : 5.2
1857'0"N
Low : 0
.
!
0 0.450.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
Pour point
Watershed
10
Flow Direction
Drainage Point
190'0"N
Frequency
1858'30"N
4149'30"E
1858'30"N
Basin
1857'0"N
1
0
mRb
0 0.450.9
Frequency
10
Conclusion
Density
4151'0"E
Legend
Relief
Estimation of flooding and feeding probabilities for drainage subbasins within the present area were studied according to EI-Shamy's
method (1992a) established two relation graphs to classify the risk
basins assessment based on the relations between weighted mean
bifurcation ratio and both of the drainage density and the drainage
frequency. The location of any basin on the two relations designates
its runoff/infiltration potentiality.
The most affecting factor in risk calculation is the density and
frequency of drainage segments. Increasing both density and
frequency lead to increasing total runoff and total infiltration. So
hazard is directly proportional to density and frequency.
According to these parameters, the sub-basins in the study area can
be classified into three classes. Class A: Basins of high Rb and low F
and D may represent ideal areas for feeding the pervious units with
the least chance for flash flooding; which may reflect appropriate
geologic and geomorphologic setting with good chances of
downward recharge to the existing shallow aquifers that may form
important water resource in remote areas.
4152'30"E
Basin
A
1
0
mRb
1.8
2.7
3.6
Kilometers
Waterflow Network
The main streams flow directions of W.dahdah basin take
North East South West direction which feeding the main
stream channel, and about 30% the rest directed from the
west bank of the main stream as shown.
Stream frequency (Fs) is the total number of stream segments of all orders per unit area (Horton 1932). Reddy et al. (2004)) stated
that low values of stream frequency (Fs) indicate presence of a permeable subsurface material and low relief. The channel
segment numbers for unit areas are difficult to be enumerated (Singh 1980). Fs mainly depend on the lithology of the basin and
the texture of the drainage network. The stream frequency value of the W.dahdah basin is 1.51 km/ km2. The low stream
frequencies value indicates sparse drainage network favoring groundwater recharge. Stream frequency mainly depends on the
lithology of the basin and reflects the texture of the drainage network. The value of stream frequency (Fs) for the basin exhibits
positive correlation with the drainage density value of the area indicating the increase in stream population with respect to
increase in drainage density. Channel frequency density serves as a tool in establishing the erosional processes operating over an
area; to be more specific, the same in relation to the stream orders and their characteristics provides data which can throw light
even on the sequences of relief developments and the degree of ruggedness in the area (Singh 1980).
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4151'0"E
193'0"N
Legend
Dam Site
Watershed
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
193'0"N
4154'0"E
4152'30"E
190'0"N
4149'30"E
Legend
Legend
. Dam Site
!
Watershed
. Dam Site
!
Watershed
190'0"N
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
Urban Areas
190'0"N
4149'30"E
4149'30"E
T M B a n ds
RGB
Red: Layer 4
Green: Layer 3
Blue: Layer 2
1857'0"N
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
TM Bands
RGB
Red: Layer 5
Green: Layer 4
Blue: Layer 3
1857'0"N
.
!
0.75 1.5
TM Bands
RGB
Red: Layer 7
Green: Layer 6
Blue: Layer 4
1857'0"N
3
Kilometers
0.75 1.5
3
Kilometers
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
Legend
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI)
4152'30"E
193'0"N
4154'0"E
. Dam Site
!
Watershed
193'0"N
Area km
3
Kilometers
1858'30"N
.
!
0
0.75 1.5
Legend
Value
Mixed barren
land
20%
Residential
16%
Other
agricultural
land
16%
Bare exposed
rock
11%
Sandy areas
other than
beaches
15%
11 Residential
24 Other agricultural land
62 Nonforested wetland
73 Sandy areas other than beaches
74 Bare exposed rock
190'0"N
4149'30"E
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
4149'30"E
Value
High : 0.700028
Nonforested
wetland
22%
1858'30"N
1857'0"N
1858'30"N
Low : -0.0739723
. Dam Site
!
Watershed
Stream Order 1
Stream Order 2
Stream Order 3
Stream Order 4
Railroad
1857'0"N
LULC mapping
Unsupervised classification provides more comprehensive information on
the spectral characteristics of the area, presents spectrally pure clusters for
the labelling step, and gives the opportunity to the analyst to group similar
clusters into a smaller number of land cover classes, (Hansen et al., 2000).
The Basin has been classified for land use/land cover into six classes as
shown.
.
!
0.75 1.5
3
Kilometers
0.75 1.5
3
Kilometers
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was employed as the basis for
Land Use / Land Cover classification. Interpretation: NDVI values vary
depending on the radiation absorption by chlorophyll in the red spectral
reflectance in the near infrared region. These values are between -1 and +1,
expressing consistency of green vegetation. The closer to 1 (light colors) is a
high consistency of specific vegetation and hardwood. Values close to -1 (dark
tones) are barren land, with soil, or rock to date. A value of 0 (midtones) is
associated lands meadows. It is useful in areas with vegetation mapping,
vegetation typology, health of vegetation, land use patterns. It is given by: NDVI
= ( NIR R )/( NIR + R ) = ( B5 B4 ) / ( B5 + B4 ) Research Journal of Agricultural
Science, 45 (4), 2013
Khosh Metrological
Station Location
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
190'0"N
1966
In poorly gauged regions, rainfall data are often short or even absent. The
availability rainfall data are collected from the nearest metrological station
(Khosh Area). Which the annual rain over the area for a period extending
from 1966 to 2011.
4149'30"E
Years
Basic statistics
Number of observations
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Standard deviation
Median
Coefficient of variation (Cv)
Skewness coefficient (Cs)
Kurtosis coefficient (Ck)
43
6
85
33.3
16.7
30.1
0.501
0.986
4.29
1858'30"N
1858'30"N
Legend
. Dam Site
!
Watershed
1857'0"N
Khosh Metrological
Station
.
!
0
W.dahdah Basin
Number of observations: 43
Return period : T= 100
Model
Nb param. XT
P(Mi) P(Mi | x) BIC
Gumbel(Maximm Likelihood)
2
88.262 16.67 59.47
365.253
Lognormal (Maximum Likelihood)
2
106.183 16.67 14.94
368.015
Pearson type 3 (Maximum Likelihood)
3
82.715 16.67 11.52
368.536
Log-Pearson type 3
=310)
82.618 16.67 10.10
368.799
Normal (Maximum Likelihood)
2
72.167 16.67 3.93
370.688
Exponential (Maximum Likelihood)
2
134.086 16.67 0.04
379.953
P(Mi) : A priori probability
P(Mi | x) : A posteriori probability (Method of Schwartz) BIC : Bayesian information criterion
AIC : Akaike information criterion
[1] H. Akaike, Information Theory and Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle, In: B. N. Petrov and F. Csaki, Eds., 2nd
International Symposium on Information Theory, Akadmiai Kiado, Budapest, 1973, pp. 267-281.
[2] H. Akaike, Markovian Representation of Stochastic Pro- cesses and Its Application to the Analysis of Autore- gressive Moving Average
Processes, Annals of the Insti- tute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 26, 1974, pp. 363- 387. doi:10.1007/BF02479833
AIC
361.730
364.493
363.253
363.515
367.165
376.431
0.75 1.5
3
Kilometers
4152'30"E
Storm Durations
Determining precipitation intensities for various storm lengths is an important aspect for
safely designing structures and infrastructure to manage flooding. Often short storm
durations are desired as they can give high intensities (mm/hr). A theoretical ratio of 1.13 to
1.14 is adopted to transform the daily rainfall values and 24-hr values [4]. In the absence of
short duration records or any similar information, sub-daily rainfall duration ratios could be
assumed between rainfall intensities of 24-hr and those of the 12-, 6-, 3-, 2-, 1-hr, 30-, 15-,
and 5-min ratios.
(XTxB)
XT = 1.14 (HYFRAN XT)
B = Bell Ratio as per below table
100
80
Intensity (mm/hr)
It is well known that ratios for durations from 2 hours to 5 minutes are fairly constant in
different climates because of the similarity of convective storms patterns [5,6].
The purpose of fitting data to statistical distributions is to be able to estimate the probability
of extreme precipitation intensities for a given return period (T). Firstly, the maximum
amount of precipitation for a given storm duration is calculated (Pt), and is then converted
into an intensity (commonly with units of mm/hour). This intensity value is needed for many
design calculations, most commonly for determining peak flow or peak runoff. The
estimated return values are needed to construct Intensity Duration Frequency curves (IDF
curves), which are widely used in engineering applications. These curves show the
relationship between the intensity of the precipitation and the duration of the storm for a
given return period. The IDF curves are developed for a specific location, with a specific
return period.
60
40
20
0
5
10
15
20
30
60
120
180
360
720
1440
50y 131.44 94.56 75.333 65.956 54.057 34.278 22.261 16.443 9.85
5.759 3.2833
20y 110.25 79.32 63.192 55.326 45.345 28.754 18.673 13.793 8.2625 4.8308 2.7542
10y 93.908 67.56 53.823 47.123 38.622 24.491 15.905 11.748 7.0375 4.1146 2.3458
D = (I*T)/60
Where
D = Rain Fall Depth (mm)
I = Rain Fall Intensity (mm/hr)
T = Duration (min)
5y
76.728 55.2 43.976 38.502 31.556 20.01 12.995 9.5987 5.75 3.3618 1.9167
3y
63.217 45.48 36.232 31.722 25.999 16.487 10.707 7.9085 4.7375 2.7699 1.5792
2y
51.041 36.72 29.254 25.612 20.992 13.311 8.6445 6.3852 3.825 2.2364 1.275
Duration (min)
100y
50y
20y
10y
5y
3y
2y
Return
Period
(Year)
Distribution
100
50
20
10
5
3
2
12.2737
10.9532
9.1879
7.8257
6.394
5.2681
4.2534
17.66
15.76
13.22
11.26
9.2
7.58
6.12
21.1037
18.8332
15.7979
13.4557
10.994
9.0581
7.3134
24.6357
21.9852
18.4419
15.7077
12.834
10.5741
8.5374
[3] G. Schwarz, Estimating the Dimension of a Model, The Annals of Statistics, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1978, pp. 461-464. doi:10.1214/aos/1176344136
30.2869
27.0284
22.6723
19.3109
15.778
12.9997
10.4958
43.5
34.278
28.7535
24.4905
20.01
16.4865
13.311
56.5 55.2758
44.522 49.3288
37.3465 41.3786
31.8095 35.2438
25.99 28.796
21.4135 23.7254
17.289 19.1556
66.225 77.4391
59.1 69.1076
49.575 57.9697
42.225 49.3751
34.5 40.342
28.425 33.2383
22.95 26.8362
[4] D. M. Hershfield, Rainfall Frequency Atlas of the United States for Durations from 30 Minutes to 24 Hours and Return Periods from 1 to
Soil Conservation Service, Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds, Technical Release 55,
100 Years, Weather Bureau Technical Paper, No. 40, 1961, p. 115.
[6] United States Depart- ment of Agriculture, Washington DC, 1986.
88.3
78.8
66.1
56.3
46
37.9
30.6
There are two primary classes of hydrologic simulation models: statistical and deterministic.
Statistical models use an analysis of historical records such as stream flow or precipitation to
infer design values for different return periods (e.g. 10 year or 100 year). A deterministic
model on the other hand uses a series of input parameters such as rainfall depth, watershed
infiltration parameters and unit hydrographs to determine runoff from physical processes.
The SCS methodologies will be used here to illustrate the kinds of hydrologic parameters
typically required of deterministic models. Some of these parameters include rainfall depth
(and an included temporal distribution), losses from a runoff coefficient or CN value, and a
time of concentration or lag time used in conjunction with a unit hydrograph.
Soil
DEM
CN Area
km^2
D
D
D
D
D
D
B
B
B
B
B
B
86
86
94
98
78
88
72
58
74
77
98
86
Product
CN x A
7.679
4.448
2.473
10.447
3.378
0.849
12.588
19.584
8.786
15.006
0.664
18.993
660.354
382.561
232.497
1023.829
263.470
74.718
906.362
1135.869
650.165
1155.490
65.120
1633.423
Land use
Infiltration
Soil
Percolation
Rock
Deep percolation
[1] United States Department of Agriculture (1986). Urban hydrology for small watersheds (PDF). Technical Release 55 (TR-55) (Second ed.). Natural Resources Conservation Service, Conservation Engineering Division.
Ocean
Ground water
10
WMS result
Parameters &
HEC-1 Hydrographs
Unite Time (min) Distribution (100y) Distribution (50y) Distribution (20y) Distribution (10y) Distribution (5y) Distribution (3y) Distribution (2y)
5
12.2737
10.9532
9.18
7.82
6.39
5.26
4.25
10
17.66
15.76
13.22
11.26
9.2
7.58
6.12
15
21.1037
18.83
15.79
13.45
11
9.05
7.31
20
24.6357
21.98
18.44
15.7
12.83
10.57
8.54
30
30.2869
27.02
22.67
19.31
15.77
12.99
10.49
60
43.5
34.27
28.75
24.49
20.01
16.48
13.31
120
56.5
44.52
37.34
31.8
25.99
21.41
17.28
180
55.2758
49.32
41.37
35.24
28.79
23.72
19.15
360
66.225
59.16
49.57
42.22
34.5
28.42
22.95
720
77.4391
69.1
57.96
49.37
40.34
33.23
26.83
1440
88.3
78.8
66.1
56.3
46
37.9
30.6
A range of curve numbers were run in HEC1 using a 7 Return distribution
design storm of 24 hour duration. The following hydrographs resulted. The
higher curve numbers result in a larger amount of runoff and therefore a
higher peak flow and flow volume.
The Analysis of Hydrograph curves, indicated that the food volume through 2100 year Return Duration range from 3968844.3 m3 to 310951.9 m3 while
the peak flow of flood ranges from 234.31 Cms to 18.43 Cms.
[3] Hydrological simulation includes study of the return period estimation of rainfall of given precipitation, i.e. the 100 year storm or the
100 year flood, 50 year, 30 ..3years etc. 100 year flood, 50 year storm, or 200 year flood, as a description of the magnitude of a storm or
flood. We understand that the larger the number before 'year flood', the greater will be the effect on river levels and on anything out on
the river's flood plain. Return Period (T) - The average length of time in years for an event (e.g. flood or river level) of given magnitude to
be equaled or exceeded. The design storm was often developed from frequency-duration-intensity curves based on rainfall records. Early
discussed in Part V and estimated for the basin.
The HEC series of software is produced by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center. Keeping the Curve Number
and the time of concentration constant, 7 different design storms were run in the model.
Hydrograph interpretation
[4] This type of hydrograph is known as a storm or flood hydrograph and it is
generally drawn with two vertical axes. One is used to plot a line graph
showing the discharge of a river in cumecs (cubic meters per second) at a
given point over a period of time. The second is used to plot a bar graph of
the rainfall event which precedes the changes in discharge.
The scale on the horizontal axis is usually in hours/days and this allows both
the rain event to be recorded and the subsequent changes in river discharge
to be plotted. The shape of the hydrograph varies according to a number of
controlling factors in the drainage basin but it will generally include the
following features.
The base flow of the river represents the normal day to day discharge of the river
and is the consequence of groundwater seeping into the river channel. The rising
limb of the hydrograph represents the rapid increase in resulting from rainfall
causing surface runoff and then later through flow. Peak discharge occurs when the
river reaches its highest level. The time difference between the peak of the rain
event and the peak discharge is known as the lag time or basin lag. The falling limb
(or recession limb as it is sometimes known) is when discharge decreases and the
river s level falls. It has a gentler gradient than the rising limb as most overland flow
has now been discharged and it is mainly through flow which is making up the river
water. A number of factors (known as drainage basin controls) influence the way in
which a river responds to precipitation and have an effect on the shape of the
hydrograph. The size, shape and relief of the basin are important controls. Water
takes longer to reach the trunk stream in a large, round basin than in does in a
small, narrow one. Where gradients are steep, water runs off faster, reaches the
river more quickly and causes a steep rising limb. Prolonged heavy rain causes
more overland flow than light drizzly rain. Areas of permeable rocks and soil allow
more infiltration and so less surface run off. The way in which the land is used will
also have an influence on the hydrograph vegetation intercepts precipitation and
allows evaporation to take place directly into the atmosphere so reducing the
amount of water available for overland flow while the large number of
impermeable surfaces in urban areas encourages run off into gutters and drains
carrying water quickly to the nearest river.
[3] written by: Harlan Bengtson edited by: Lamar Stonecypher updated: 10/18/2013
[4] http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/education/int/geog/rivers/hydrographs/
11
Computed Results
at W.dahdah Basin
Peak Discharge:
229.6 (M3/S)
Precipitation Volume: 88.30 (MM)
Direct Runoff Volume:
Loss Volume:
50.67 (MM)
Baseflow Volume:
Excess Volume:
37.63 (MM)
Discharge Volume:
36.96 (MM)
0.00 (MM)
36.96 (MM)
250
Flow (cms)
200
150
100
The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is designed to simulate the complete hydrologic processes of dendritic watershed systems.
The software includes many traditional hydrologic analysis procedures such as event infiltration, unit hydrographs, and hydrologic
routing. Geometric attributes such as areas, lengths, and slopes are computed automatically from the digital watershed. Parameters such
as loss rates, base flow, unit hydrograph method, and routing data are entered through a series of interactive dialog boxes. Once the
parameters needed to define an HMS model have been entered, an input file with the proper format for HMS can be written
automatically.
The results and hydrographs obtained by using Hyetograph precipitation method.
50
00:00
00:20
00:40
01:00
01:20
01:40
02:00
02:20
02:40
03:00
03:20
03:40
04:00
04:20
04:40
05:00
05:20
05:40
06:00
06:20
06:40
07:00
07:20
07:40
08:00
08:20
08:40
09:00
09:20
09:40
10:00
10:20
10:40
11:00
11:20
11:40
12:00
Time
Duration Return
Volume (mm)
Duration Return
Volume (mm)
100yDR
50yDR
20yDR
229.6
186.6
132.8
36.96
30.03
21.36
10yDR
5yDR
2yDR
94.9
59.5
18.5
15.3
9.55
2.97
The Rational Method is one of the simplest and best known methods routinely applied in urban hydrology. Peak flows
are computed from the simple equation:
Runoff coefficient for different soil types-Richard 1988
Q = kCiA
Value of C
Type of catchment soil
where:
Rocky and impermeable soil
1-0.8
Q - Peak flow
Slightly permeable , bare soil
0.8-0.6
k - Conversion factor
Cultivated soil covered with vegetation
0.6-0.4
C - Runoff coefficient
Cultivated absorbent soil
0.4-0.3
i - Rainfall intensity
Sandy soil
0.3-0.2
A - Area
Heavy forest
0.2-0.1
50y
131.4384
94.56
75.3328
54.0568
34.278
12.084
20y
110.2548
79.32
63.1916
45.3446
28.7535
10.155
10y
93.9084
67.56
53.8228
38.6218
24.4905
8.639
5y
76.728
55.2
43.976
31.556
20.01
7.011
2y
51.0408
36.72
29.2536
20.9916
13.311
4.695
Intensity
As the data entry for each basin is completed, a peak flow (Q) is computed and listed in the
Flowrate (Q) row. The Rational Method equation does not produce a hydrograph. However,
one of several unit-dimensionless hydrographs can be used to distribute the peak flow through
time to create a runoff hydrograph. The resulted Flowrate (Q) = 8286.348 cfs. = 234.64 cms.
Flow Velocity (V) = Q/A = 2.23 m/s.
12
4152'30"E
4151'0"E
4154'0"E
193'0"N
Using the RAS Mapping tool to generate both a raster (grid of pixels or "cells")
and polygon of the flooding extents, by intersecting the water-surface
elevations at each cross-section with the digital terrain surface. Post-processing
in the form of creating Flood Extent, Flood Depth, and Flood Impact maps
improves defining the hydraulic model and the determination of the bridge site.
190'0"N
1858'30"N
The output Flood depth grid of 100y probability flooding period at the outlet of Wadi Dahdah
Basin represents the water surface elevation level grid (WSEL) Minus the grid representing the
ground elevation and the floodplain extent. The Flood Coverage divide the flooded area into
zones, each with a depth range.
Ranges from 0 - 1.15 represent the Flood Stage.
Ranges from 1.15 2.3 represent the minor flooding.
Ranges from 2.3 3.46 represent moderate flooding.
Ranges from 3.46 4.61 represent major flooding.
. Outlet
!
Watershed
1857'0"N
.
!
0
RS = 99
BR
308
Legend
306
EG 100y
0.0 m/s
302
0.2 m/s
0.4 m/s
300
0.6 m/s
298
0.8 m/s
1.0 m/s
296
Legend
306
EG 100y
0.0 m/s
302
0.2 m/s
0.4 m/s
300
0.6 m/s
298
0.8 m/s
1.0 m/s
Ground
Ineff
294
Ineff
294
Crit 100y
296
Ground
Bank Sta
Bank Sta
292
100
150
200
250
50
100
WS 100y
C rit 100y
300
Ground
298
296
294
292
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
40
60
80
Legend
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
50
100
Main Channel Distance (m)
The flood severity grid represents the combined effect of depth and velocity, most often
communicated in categories of Low, Medium, High, Very High and Extreme Hazard. Studies have
been performed in multiple countries to categorize the depth x velocity result into various flood
hazard or flood severity classifications. Based on studies in Australia and published in the 2006
Designing Safer Subdivisions - Guidance on Subdivision Design in Flood Prone Areas
(http://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/content/documents/pdf/
resources/Subdivision_Guidelines.pdf)
manual, which was derived from earlier work from the New South Wales Floodplain Development
Manual (2005).
Wadi Dahdah flood severity
20
2.0
W.dahdah Main
EG 100y
302
100
Distance
120
140
160
200
250
Station (m)
Legend
304
150
180
200
150
200
50
306
Elevation (m)
308
Station (m)
BR
304
Crit 100y
3
Kilometers
WS 100y
Elevation (m)
Elevation (m)
304
W.dahdah Main
RS = 99
WS 100y
292
0.75 1.5
.03
.03
The profile displays the water surface level ovar W .dahdah from the outlet
290
Khosh Metrological
Station
1858'30"N
Legend
Up Stream Bridge
4149'30"E
W.dahdah Main
3.5
Legend
Hydr Depth C 100y
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
50
100
150
200
13