Ag Hedge Daily Newsletter

2/04/2016
- Good morning from Chicago Get expert perspective on today's Ag markets from some of the most respected names in the industry. Zaner experts have been quoted in Dow Jones Newswires, AgWeb.com, Top
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transaction.

IMPORTANT NOTICES

OPENING CALLS

Feb 4: Export Sales at 7:30am

Feb 8: Export Inspections at 10:00am & First Notice for Feb Live Cattle
Feb 9: Crop Production & WASDE at 11:00am
Feb 11: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 16: Export Inspections at 10:00am & NOPA Crush at 11:00am
Feb 19: Export Sales at 7:30am & Cattle on Feed at 2:00pm Last Trade Options for March Chi, KC, MN
wheat, corn, soybeans, soyoil, soymeal
Feb 22: Export Inspection at 10:00am
Feb 23: Cold Storage at 2:00pm
Feb 25: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 28: Export Inspections at 10:00am First Notice for March Chi, KC, MN wheat, corn, soybeans, soyoil,
soymeal

Corn:

up 1-3

Wheat:

up 0-1

Beans:

up 0-2

Cattle:
Hogs:
US $:
Crude:

down .800
up .40

GRAINS

52 Week
High

464-0 on
07/14/15

52 Week
High

629-4 on
06/30/15

52 Week
High

1044-2 on
07/14/15

52 Week
Low

348-4 on
01/07/16

52 Week
Low

456-0 on
01/04/16

52 Week
Low

847-0 on
11/23/15

20 Day MA 365-2

20 Day MA 476-0

20 Day MA 876-4

50 Day MA 367-5

50 Day MA 477-5

50 Day MA 876-7

100 Day MA 378-1

100 Day MA 493-1

100 Day
MA

881-0

Corn: ---Night Session Close: March up 22 at 3732 Dec up 20 at 3950

Opening the night at 3710, March traded to a session low of 3710. Initial moving average support comes from the 10 day at 3704 and followed by the 50 day at 3674. Trend line
support may be found at 3686. The 3634-3640 gap remains open. Posting a session high at 3734, the standing high remains at 3736 on Feb-02 may offer resistance. Further
resistance is likely from the 100 day moving average at 3780.
Soybeans: ---Night Session Close: March up 10 at 8776 Nov up 22 at 8912
Opening the night session at 8780, March posted a session low of 8774. The 50 and 20 day moving averages can be found near 8766 may offer support while yesterdays session
low stands at 8742. Further trend line support may be found at 8680. Posting a session high at 8820, resistance along the 100 day moving average stands at 8810 while the recent

high from Feb-02 stands at 8894. Further resistance is likely at 8970 from the Dec-21 high.
Wheat: ---Night Session Close: March up 10 at 4810 Sept up 02 at 4966
Starting the night at 4790 and posting a low on the open, March may find trend line support at 4786 while the 50 day moving average is located at 4776. Further support is possible
from the recent low of 4704 on Jan-28. Trading above yesterdays session high to 4824, 4830 may offer some resistance with additional resistance likely at 4884 from the Jan-26
high.
News:
--- Export Sales
Wheat range 200,000-400,000; actual of 66,200 for 15/16 and 87,800 for 16/17
Corn range 800,000-1,000,000; actual of 1,129,100 for 15/16 and 14,400 for 16/17
Soybean range 400,000-600,000; actual of (-43,600) for 15/16 and 65,700 for 16/17
Soymeal range 100,000-300,000; actual of 186,300 for 15/16 and 1,200 for 16/17
Soyoil range 5,000-25,000; actual of 12,800 for 15/16
--- Informa
Lowered Brazils 2015/16 soybean production to 100.5 MMT vs 101.4
Raised Brazils 2015/16 corn production to 81.6 MMT vs 81.3
Raised Argentinas 2015/16 soybean production to 60.0 MMT vs 58.5
Raised Argentinas 2015/16 corn production to 26 MMT vs 22
--- WASDE Estimates
Corn
US Ending Stocks: avg 1,815: range 1,752-1,947
Global Ending Stocks: avg 208.32: range 203.5-213.0
Brazil: 81.7: range 80.5-83.2
Argentina: 25.3: range 23-27
Soybean
US Ending Stocks: avg 449: range 425-491
Global Ending Stocks: 79.09: range 76.4-81.
Brazil: 99.2: range 98-101
Argentina: 57.3: range 56-59
--- Ethanol Production Report
Average production of 959,000 barrels per day with a weekly corn consumption of 100.7 million bushels. Total ethanol production for the week stands at 6.713 million barrels and
stocks rose to 22.362 million barrels from 21.436 last week; up 4.32% vers last week and up 6.56% vers last year. Demand fell from 7.231 to 5.787 million barrels.
--- STATS Canada and Brazils Conab will update estimates later today.
--- Beneficial rains remain in the forecast for stressed regions of Argentina. Brazils sees a forecast of minor showers with mostly dry weather.
--- Brian

For more information, questions, or comments feel free to contact us or follow our team on Twitter:
Ted Seifried -- (312) 277-0113 -- tseifried@zaner.com -- @TheTedSpread
Tim Hackbarth -- (312) 277-0110 -- thackbarth@zaner.com -- @AgHedgingone
Brian Grossman -- (312) 277-0119 -- bgrossman@zaner.com -- @AgHedgeGrossman

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MEATS

52 Week
High

156.300 on
06/10/15

52 Week
High

214.150 on
06/11/15

52 Week
High

72.975 on
05/12/15

52 Week
Low

121.975 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

143.200 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

53.975 on
11/17/15

20 Day MA 132.749

20 Day MA 161.093

20 Day MA 62.929

50 Day MA 131.678

50 Day MA 159.532

50 Day MA 60.282

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

135.082

168.726

62.677

Cattle have posted consecutive higher days as expectations for higher cash have board playing catch up.
Cash has yet to trade this week but as of Wednesday afternoon, bids are scarce while asking prices are $4/$5 higher than week ago.
Feeder Index down .14 to 160.14 yesterday.
Cutouts hold steady at $222.
Sharply lower U.S. Dollar supportive to commodities on Wednesday.
Some premium has been thrown into near-term prices as result of this weeks storm. Yes, it will slow weight gain/ hurt performance for cattle already placed in feedlots but not seen as
major factor.
Packer margins are back in the red with recent surge in cash cattle prices.
Beef production for the 1st quarter is expected to be down 160 million pounds from the 4th quarter as compared with a drop of 357 million pounds last year, near 550 million two years
ago and near a 400 million pound drop three years ago. The smaller drop equates to less seasonal strength.
Technicals showing positive momentum but caution warranted as market is in overbought condition.

Tim

LINKS

Cash Grain Bids

US Weather

South American Weather

In this newsletter we do not email specific trade recommendations. As each client's situation is unique, we craft strategies to fit our individual client's needs. Please feel free to call us
at 312-277-0113 for a personalized recommendation.