INVENTING THE

HOUSE

INVENTING THE
HOUSE
Case-Specific Studies on
Housing Innovation

ANDREW R. SANDERFORD,
ANDREW P. MCCOY, DONG ZHAO,
CHARLES T. KOEBEL, MATTHEW J. KEEFE,
TREVOR H. FLANERY,
PERNILLE H. CHRISTENSEN

MOMENTUM PRESS, LLC, NEW YORK

Inventing the House: Case-Specific Studies on Housing Innovation

Copyright Momentum Press, LLC, 2016.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored
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First published by Momentum Press, LLC
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www.momentumpress.net
ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-566-3 (print)
ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-567-0 (e-book)
Momentum Press Housing Innovations Collection
Collection ISSN: 2376-4961 (print)
Collection ISSN: 2376-4996 (electronic)
Cover and interior design by Exeter Premedia Services Private Ltd.,
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Printed in the United States of America

Abstract
Businesses, consumers, industry groups and governments understand the
importance of innovation for continued economic success and improvements in quality of life. However, innovation in the housing and residential construction industry remains a topic about which little is known while
a small but growing literature is making positive progress.
Building on the first book in the Housing Innovation collection, the
purpose of this book is to share new research paradigms that focus on innovation and are, in and of themselves, innovative. The first chapters focus
on a newly created diffusion of innovation model and its application to the
industry while later chapters showcase several innovative techniques that
shed new light on housing, residential construction, and policy-making.
As the second book in the Housing Innovation collection, this book is
designed to assist readers as they continue to peel back the complex layers
of innovation in housing and residential construction.

KEYWORDS
adoption and diffusion of innovation, agent-based models, 4D modeling,
climate change, high-performance construction, homebuilding, housing,
sustainability

Contents
List of Figures

xi

List of Tables

xiii

Preface

xv

Acknowledgments

xvii

About the Contributors

xix

About the Book

xxi

1Case-Specific Studies on Housing Innovation

Andrew R. Sanderford
1.1Introduction

References3
2The Adoption and Diffusion of Innovation in
Housing and Home Building

Andrew R. Sanderford, Andrew P. McCoy, and Charles T. Koebel

2.1Introduction

2.2 Brief Literature Summary

2.3 The Adoption Decision

2.4 Attributes of the Adopter

2.5Attributes of the Product, Supply Chain,

and Communication Networks

10

2.6 Attributes of the Market

11

2.7Time

12

2.8 Koebels Diffusion Model

12

2.9 Measuring the Adoption Decision

13

viii Contents

2.10Dependent Variable and Potential Statistical

Modeling Techniques

14

2.11 Independent Variables

14

2.12 Regression Modeling

16

2.13Discussion

17

References18
3Demonstrating a Diffusion of Innovation Model:
Patterns of U.S. Homebuilders High Performance
Product Adoption

23

Andrew R. Sanderford and Matthew J. Keefe

3.1 From Conceptual to Empirical Model

23

3.2Data

24

3.3 Empirical Model

29

3.4 Results and Discussion

30

3.5Conclusions

32

References33
4Establishing Builder Confidence for the
Residential Construction Industry

35

Dong Zhao, Andrew P. McCoy, and Andrew R. Sanderford

4.1Introduction

35

4.2 Index Background

36

4.3Methods

38

4.4Findings

43

4.5 Conclusions and Future Work

47

References49
Appendix49
5Computational Housing Research: A Modeling Primer

53

Trevor H. Flanery
5.1Introduction

53

5.2 Social Science Modeling Theory

54

5.3 ABM Resources to Start Modeling

58

5.4 ABM and Housing

60

5.5 Summary: Models, Housing, and Research Boundaries

64

References66

Contents ix

6Understanding the Potential of 4D Geospatial

Modeling to Enhance Flood Mitigation Planning
in Residential Areas

69

Pernille H. Christensen
6.1Introduction

69

6.2Understanding the Impact of Natural Disasters

on the Built Environment

70

6.3Flood Mitigation Planning in the Context

of United States National Policy

74

6.4Improving upon Business as Usual Development

Practices Through Strategic Planning

76

6.5Developing a 4D Data and Geospatial Modeling

Methodology78
6.6How Is This Approach Different to What Cities
Currently Use for Impact Assessment?

82

6.7Applying the Model as Part of a Flood Mitigation

Strategy for Residential Areas

83

References84
Index

87

List of Figures
Figure 2.1. Conceptual model and variables.

13

Figure 3.1. Cumulative adoption of HP piping.

29

Figure 4.1. Distribution of confidence contributors.

46

Figure 4.2.Chart for index tracking comparison between

BCI and HMI.

48

Figure 6.1.Building footprints workflow and datasets used in

development of 3D model.

79

Figure 6.2. Building footprints and 3D buildings.

79

Figure 6.3. Phototexturized 3D model, Belfast.

80

Figure 6.4. Three-meter water course level rise, Belfast.

81

Figure 6.5.Potential flood defense in front of mixed

use development, Belfast.

81

List of Tables
Table 3.1. Attributes of innovation

26

Table 3.2. Internal factors

27

Table 3.3. External factors

28

Table 3.4. Adoption of PEX

31

Table 4.1. Indicator matrix for builder confidence by segment

40

Table 4.2. Summary of survey responses

44

Table 4.3. Summary of builder size in revenue

44

Table 4.4. BCI in year 2014

45

Table 4.5. Confidence indexing by segment

45

Table 4.6. Tracking comparison between BCI and HMI, 2014

47

Table 5.1. Examples of coevolving housing relationships

57

Table 5.2. Some examples of coevolving housing factors

58

Preface
In his foundational investigations of innovation, Rogers traces the history
of the research tradition back to social scientists at the turn of the 20th
century (Rogers 1962, 1995). Noting that by 1995 there were 10 research
traditions employing and using adoption and diffusion as lenses through
which to process qualitative and quantitative innovation data, it is little
surprise to find academic, professional, and popular research and writing
about the topic in many fields. Interest in the topic has grown such that
some innovation scholars, for example, Clayton Christensen, author of the
Innovators Dilemma (Christensen 2013), have become household names
for their contributions to the research conversation.
However, despite the ubiquity of innovation related research and
speculation, there remain a number of fields where little is known about
the process of adoption and diffusion of innovation. Housing and residential construction are two prime examples. Though there is an emerging literature surrounding how and why innovation occurs across these
industries, substantial research opportunities exist.
This book and subsequent volumes in the Innovating the House
collection were designed to fill part of this gap. The collection is the
follow-up to a Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funded research
project, Impact of Market Behavior on the Adoption and Diffusion of
Innovative Green Building Technologies (GRANT10814146), conducted
by the Virginia Center for Housing Research. As part of this grant, the
team analyzed the adoption and diffusion of innovation among residential building firms. More specifically, the project focused on sustainability
and energy efficiency as innovations and the factors that contributed to
their adoption patterns by U.S. home builders. The Housing Innovation
collection seeks to summarize this work and draw together a number of
new resources and voices on innovation within residential construction.
Building on the first book in the collection, Case-Specific Studies
on Housing Innovation provides two perspectives on innovation within

xvi Preface

housing and residential construction. First, it describes and then demonstrates a newly advanced empirical model of the diffusion of innovation
among home builders. These chapters focus on identifying the factors
associated with the innovation adoption decisions of U.S. home builders.
Then, the next several chapters showcase innovative research techniques
that have been brought to bear on housing to develop new knowledge
about decision making, policy making, and latent concepts such as
confidence. Among these innovative techniques are an agent-based
model, a new 4D dynamic spatial model of climate change risk, and a
new index based on survey responses of home builders and renovation
contractors. The purpose of this bifurcated approach is to highlight the
diversity of ways innovation colors and contributes to the aggregation and
creation of knowledge.
However, while this book demonstrates a number of leading edge
applications of research techniques and offers a discussion of their findings, it is far from an exhaustive summary of the array of innovative ideas
surrounding the field of housing. Instead, we hope that it whets the appetite
of those interested in innovation and can contribute substantively to the
conversation about future opportunities for research and investigation.
Please note that the statements and conclusions contained in this work
are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development or the U.S.
government. The authors have made every effort to verify the accuracy
and appropriateness of the works content. However, no guarantee of the
accuracy or completeness of the information or acceptability for compliance with any industry standard or mandatory requirement of any code,
law, or regulation is either offered or implied. The products and systems
described in the report are included only as examples of some available
choices. No endorsement, recommendation, or evaluation of these products or their use is given or implied.

REFERENCES
Christensen, C. 2013. The Innovators Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause
Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press.
Rogers, E. 1962. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: Free Press.
Rogers, E. 1995. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: Free Press.

Acknowledgments
The Housing Innovation collection, and specifically this book, would not
have been possible without the support, cajoling, and contributions from
a wide array of friends, colleagues, students, mentors, and critics. The
authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of Dr. Hazhir Rahmandad,
Dr. Christopher Franck, Joshua Washburn, Parisa
Nikkhoo, Indrojeet
Kharde, and Alexys Wellott without whose work this book would not
have been possible. Also, a deep debt of gratitude is owed to Marilyn
Cavell who both managed the reporting side of the research project and
helped; based on her previous scholarship, provide background to much
of what takes shape here in the pages that follow. Additionally, the authors
thank Dr. Elizabeth Cocke and Dr. Regina Gray in HUDs Office of Policy
Development and Research for their funding, supervision, and constructive criticism of our work.

About the Contributors

Andrew R. Sanderford, PhD is an Assistant Professor of Real Estate
Development and Planning in the College of Architecture, Planning,

and Landscape Architecture (CAPLA) at the University of Arizona. Previously, Sanderford was a post-doctoral research fellow at the Virginia
Center for Housing Research, a research center within the College of
Architecture and Urban Studies at Virginia Tech.
Andrew P. McCoy, PhD is the Preston and Catharine White Endowed
Fellow and Associate Director of the Myers-Lawson School of Construction (MLSoC) and the Director of the Virginia Center for Housing
Research (VCHR) at Virginia Tech. He is Associate Professor of Building
Construction in the Myers-Lawson School of Construction, a joint venture
of the College of Engineering and the College of Architecture and Urban
Studies which focuses on interdisciplinary, multi-departmental outreach,
research, and education. The School serves the full life-cycle and supply
chain across all sectors of the Industry.
Dong Zhao, PhD, LEED AP is an Assistant Professor of Construction
Management in the School of Planning, Design and Construction (SPDC)
at Michigan State University. He was the a postdoctoral fellow at the
Virginia Center for Housing Research and the Myers-Lawson School of
Construction at Virginia Tech.
Matthew J. Keefe, MS is a PhD student in the Department of Statistics at
Virginia Tech. He earned his M.S. degree in Statistics from Virginia Tech
in 2013. He is an active collaborator in LISA (Virginia Techs Laboratory
for Interdisciplinary Statistical Analysis), where he closely works with
researchers in other fields. Previously, he was a research assistant providing statistical support for researchers at the Virginia Center for Housing
Research.

xxAbout the Contributors

Charles T. Koebel, PhD is the founder and former director of the Virginia
Center for Housing Research, a research center within the College of
Architecture and Urban Studies at Virginia Tech. At present he serves
as a Senior Researcher at VCHR, contributing regularly to research and
discovery. Previously, Koebel was a Professor of Urban Affairs and Planning at the College of Architecture and Urban Studies at Virginia Tech.
Dr.Koebel retired from teaching in the Spring of 2015.
Trevor H. Flanery, is a PhD candidate in the College of Architecture and
Urban Studies at Virginia Tech. He has served as a graduate assistant in
Virginia Techs Metropolitan Institute, the Office of Economic Development, and is currently serving at the Global Forum on Urban and Regional
Resilience. He is also a visiting student at the Network Dynamics and
Simulation Science Lab at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, a research
center at Virginia Tech.
Pernille H. Christensen, PhD is a Senior Lecturer and the Course Director for the Bachelor of Property Economics program in the School of Built
Environment at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS). Previously,
Christensen was a Research Associate in the Richard H. Pennell Center for
Real Estate Development (CRED) at Clemson University. Her research
focuses on sustainability at all levels of the built environment and aims
to improve the decision-making processes related to urban resilience for
industry practitioners.

About the Book

The Housing Innovation collection is a series of titles that is both practical
and academic in nature. The series serves two purposes: first as an expansion of current research by authors and second as a place to continue and
advance a larger discussion about innovation-related housing topics. The
series originates from a team of multi-disciplinary researchers who examined the adoption and diffusion patterns of green and high performance
construction technology innovation among U.S. homebuilders. The collection is designed to speed the dissemination of all research in housing
innovation, though. This larger conversation includes the topics of commercialization, safety, policy, and innovative methodologies for housing
research and analysis.
Inventing the House: Case-Specific Studies on Housing Innovation fits into the Housing Innovation collection as a bridge between the
recent housing innovation work and the exploration of innovative tools
and methodologies, not just in housing but in the academy. In the book,
contributors share the results of their empirical work focused on housing
innovation and innovative research methods for housing. The book begins
with a demonstration of a diffusion of innovation model previously developed by the series authors. The authors apply this model to a large sample
of proprietary and public data describing homebuilders green technology
selections and discuss those factors that most heavily influence the adoption decision. The later chapters focus on innovative empirical research
techniques applied to housing specific data and phenomena for the academy. Techniques include agent-based modeling, dynamic 4-D spatial
modeling for development planning, and a new index describing market
confidence among U.S. homebuilders. Together, these chapters help readers gain new insight into the complexities of innovation as it relates to
housing creation, construction, and development, and propose questions
about the next steps for our industry.

CHAPTER 1

Case-Specific Studies on
Housing Innovation
Andrew R. Sanderford
1.1INTRODUCTION
Nearly 20 years ago, some construction researchers argued that technology was changing faster than actors in the homebuilding market perceived
(Toole 1998). Building on prior research (Dibner and Lemer 1992), some in
the construction literature (Slaughter 1998) questioned the long-standing
perception that the construction industry (even more so the homebuilder)
was an innovation laggard and generally resistant to innovation.
Recent research focused on innovation in construction has continued to question the perspective of the builder as an innovation laggard
by adapting empirically driven diffusion of innovation models to construction data (Kale and Arditi 2005, 2006, 2009; Rose and Manley 2012,
2014) drawing on innovation-focused survey data (Koebel 2008), and
conducting case studies of firms and specific products. Each of these clusters of research added significantly to the prior research that identified the
obstacles to the adoption and diffusion of innovation across the housing
and homebuilding industries. Together, this body of literature has substantially increased our collective understanding of how and why innovation
occurs in building construction.
As the second book in the Housing Innovation collection, CaseSpecific Studies on Housing Innovation, extends the discussion begun in
People, Policies, and Programs Influencing Innovation in Housing. The
authors of the book focused on the history, literature, policy, and climate
of opinion surrounding innovation in the U.S. housing and homebuilding

2INVENTING THE HOUSE

market. Here, following the larger conversation in the research literature,

the primary goal is to analyze and discuss empirical models explaining
patterns of adoption and diffusion of innovative technologies by U.S.
homebuilders. However, it is important to also recognize that there is
exciting and ground breaking research being conducted using innovative methods of analysis to analyze various phenomena in the housing
market. Given this exciting segment of the literature, the second primary
goal of this book is to highlight specific instances of innovative methods
that researchers have developed to analyze housing and housing markets.
In short, Case-Specific Studies on Housing Innovation provides insight
into both innovation-focused housing research and innovative research
focused on housing.
In Chapter 2, Andrew Sanderford, Andrew McCoy, and Charles
Koebel convert the discussion from People, Policies, and Programs
Influencing Innovation in Housing into a theoretical diffusion of innovation model focused on U.S. homebuilders and the decision to adopt
energy efficient (high performance) technologies from among a cluster of
economic substitutes. Sanderford, McCoy, and Koebel describe the creation of a theoretical model, its operationalization using both proprietary
data and also secondary data from public data sources. The chapter also
describes potential statistical models that can be applied to the innovation
adoption decision.
In Chapter 3, Andrew Sanderford and Matthew Keefe demonstrate
an application of the statistical model operationalized in Chapter 2 to
builders energy efficiency water distribution piping choices using data
from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Home Innovation Research Labs Builders Practices Survey (BPS). Foreshadowing
the results, Sanderford, Koebel, and McCoy find that internal, external,
and technology specific factors are all significant predictors of builders
adoptions decision. Furthermore, policy, climate, and the firms disposition toward other sustainability-oriented innovations are also significantly
associated with the decision to adopt energy-efficient piping products.
Chapter 4, by Dong Zhao, Andrew McCoy, and Andrew Sanderford,
debuts a new tool for measuring the latent construct home builders confidence. Using existing indices such as the Conference Boards (CB)
Business Confidence Survey as models, this chapter reports the findings
from an exploratory effort to develop a new understanding of market confidence. This effort builds on and seeks to improve the NAHB/Wells Fargo
Housing Market Index (HMI), the other tool measuring latent concepts
such as confidence or sentiment. The index created in this chapter, the
Builder Confidence Index (BCI), separates the market into segments of the
production or custom builders and remodelers or replacement contractors;

Case-Specific Studies on Housing Innovation3

and measures seven important indicators including sales, market, materials, government, and macro economy. Initial findings confirm key differences between the two types of homebuilders in terms of confidence and
reveal interesting correlations over time.
In Chapter 5, Trevor Flannery describes agent-based models (ABMs)
and discusses how they provide a tool to explore change and possibilities
of change (scenario planning) in housing trends and research. Specifically,
Flannery examines gentrification feedbacks; the adoption and diffusion of
innovative building technology; supply and demand rent mitigation; and
urban form. The chapter begins with a focus on agent-based modeling
software, basic algorithms design, and then moves into the above topics
and how one might approach them using advanced modeling techniques
and tools. The chapter concludes with a discussion of ABMs potential as
an urban housing development coordination tool.
Chapter 6 by Pernille Christensen describes the literature foundation,
and climatological need, and application of a new dynamic geospatial
modeling tool to urban housing development and regulation. This work
suggests significant possibilities in how risk is analyzed in housing markets
and should likely catalyze additional innovation not only in the integration
of spatial and economic data but also in the integration of e nvironmental
risk with housing market analyses.
In short, Case-Specific Studies on Housing Innovation opens a window into two related innovation-centered areas of scholarship. First, it
highlights the development and application of an empirical diffusion of
innovation model designed to predict U.S. homebuilders energy efficient
technology (and product) adoption decisions. Then, it showcases several
innovative quantitative and spatial techniques that have been developed
to create deeper insight into the housing and homebuilding market place.
Together, these two related tracks help to illustrate how housing researchers are adapting techniques from related (and unrelated) fields to shed
new light onto the complexities of the homebuilding process and housing
markets.

REFERENCES
Dibner, D.R., and A.C. Lemer. 1992. The Role of Public Agencies in Fostering
New Technology and Innovation in Building. Washington DC: National
Academies Press.
Kale, S., and D. Arditi. 2005. Diffusion of Computer Aided Design Technology in Architectural Design Practice. Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management 131, no. 10, pp. 113541. doi:10.1061/
(asce)0733-9364(2005)131:10(1135)

4INVENTING THE HOUSE

Kale, S., and D. Arditi. 2006. Diffusion of ISO 9000 Certification in the Precast
Concrete Industry. Construction Management and Economics 24, no. 5,
pp.48595. doi:10.1080/01446190600601594
Kale, S., and D. Arditi. 2009. Innovation Diffusion Modeling in the Construction
Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 136, no. 3,
pp. 32940. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000134
Koebel, C.T. 2008. Innovation in Homebuilding and the Future of Housing. Journal of the American Planning Association 74, no. 1, pp. 4558.
doi:10.1080/01944360701768991
Rose, T.M., and K. Manley. 2012. Adoption of Innovative Products on Australian
Road Infrastructure Projects. Construction Management and Economics 30,
no. 4, pp. 27798. doi:10.1080/01446193.2012.665173
Rose, T.M., and K. Manley. 2014. Revisiting the Adoption of Innovative Products
on Australian Road Infrastructure Projects. Construction Management and
Economics 32, no. 9, pp. 90417. doi:10.1080/01446193.2014.938670
Slaughter, S. 1998. Models of Construction Innovation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 124, no. 3, pp. 22631. doi:10.1061/
(asce)0733-9364(1998)124:3(226)
Toole, T.M. 1998. Uncertainty and Home Builders Adoption of Technological
Innovations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 124,
no.4, pp. 32332. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(1998)124:4(323)

Index
A
ABM. See agent-based models
adoption/diffusion of innovation,
i, 518
adoption decision, 89
attributes of adoption, 910
attributes of market, 1112
attributes of product, supply
chains and communication
networks, 1011
summary over, 68
data on, 2429
dependent variable, 14
independent variable, 1416
Koebels diffusion model, 1213
measuring adoption decision,
1314
regression modeling, 1617
role of time in, 12
Agent-Based and IndividualBased Modeling: A Practical
Introduction (Railsback and
Grimm), 59
agent-based models (ABM), i,
5364
affordable housing dynamics, 64
housing and, 6064
research approach, 64
resources to start modeling,
5860
algorithm, 62
ArcGIS product line, 60
ARIMA. See autoregressive
integrated moving average

ASCII grid files, 60

attributes of innovation
adoption, 910
external, 15
internal, 15
market, 1112
product, 1011, 14
Australia flooding, 7172
autoregressive integrated moving
average (ARIMA), 42
B
Bass model, 12
BCI. See Builder Confidence
Index
biological disaster, 70
BPS. See Builders Practices
Survey
builder size in revenue, 44t
Builder Confidence Index (BCI),
3637
data analysis, 41
geographical adjustment,
4142
seasonal adjustment, 4243
findings in, 4347
data descriptions, 4344
indexing, 4446
trends tracking, 47
in 2014, 45t
indicator matrix for, 40t
instrument design, 3840
metrics/indicators on, 46
sample size, 4041

88Index

survey, 3840
vs. HMI, 47t, 48f
Builders Practices Survey (BPS),
24
building information management
(BIM) software, 10
C
c-statistics, 30
Case-Specific Studies on Housing
Innovation, 1
CBSA-level. See Core Based
Statistical Area-level
Center for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disaster
(CRED), 71
CIA. See Cumulative Impact
Assessment
classic Segregation Model, 62
climate change, i
climate-related disaster, 7072
coevolving housing factors, 58t
coevolving housing relationships,
57t
coevolving volatility, 56, 57t
Community Rating System (CRS),
74
compatibility measures, 14
complementarity index, 26, 3031
complex adaptive systems, 55, 56
complexity measures, 14
computational housing research,
5365
ABM and, 6064
ABM resources to start
modeling, 5860
ABM software tools, 5354
complexity issues in, 55
digital data tracking and, 55
overview of, 5354
signals and boundaries in, 61
social science modeling theory,
5458
computational social science, 55
confidence indexing by segment,
45t

Consumer Confidence Index,

3637
Core Based Statistical Area
(CBSA)-level, 15
CRED. See Center for Research on
the Epidemiology of Disaster
CRS. See Community Rating
System
Cumulative Impact Assessment
(CIA), 82
customizing HVAC system, 24
D
data
on adoption and diffusion of
innovation, 2429
BPS, 2425
for dependent variables, 2425
data analysis, BCI, 41
geographical adjustment, 4142
seasonal adjustment, 4243
data sets, existing, 63
Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000,
75
Database of State Incentives for
Renewable Energy (DSIRE),
27
decision-making, 5
dependent variables, 14
diffusion of innovation model,
2333
digital data tracking, 55
DSIRE. See Database of State
Incentives for Renewable
Energy
Duct Systems in Conditioned
Space, 24
E
economy (EC), 39
EIAs. See environmental impact
assessments
Emergency Management Database
(EM-DAT), 71
environmental impact assessments
(EIAs), 8283

Index 89

Environmental Protection Agency

(EPA), 27
European Environmental Agency,
71
Ewings composite index, 16
external attributes, 14
F
Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA), 7375
Federal Housing Finance Agency
Home Price Indices, 36
feedback signal characteristics,
6163
findings, in builders confidence
methods, 4347
data descriptions, 4344
indexing, 4446
trends tracking, 47
flood mitigation planning in
residential areas, 6984
4D modeling methodology and,
7881
emergencies during, 7374
environmental impact
assessments (EIAs), 8283
natural disasters and, 7074
new technologies in, 8384
overview of, 6970
strategic planning and
preparedness for events, 7678
United States disaster mitigation
policy and, 7476
flooding
in Australia, 7172
tidal, 72
4D modeling, i, 7881
base 3D data model and, 7880
gaming technology and scenario
testing in, 8081
G
generative social science, 57
geographical adjustment, 4142
geographical information systems
(GIS), 60

geophysical disaster, 70
GIS. See geographical information
systems
government and regulatory climate
(GR), 39
Gravity Network Index, 26
green building diffusion, 1718
H
Hanley Wood (HW), 38
Hazard Identification and Risk
Assessments (HIRAs), 7576
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program
(HMGP), 75
Heating, Ventilation, and AirConditioning (HVAC), 24
high-performance construction, i
HIRAs. See Hazard Identification
and Risk Assessments
HMGP. See Hazard Mitigation
Grant Program
HMI. See Housing Market Index
Home Innovations Research Lab,
24
homebuilding, i
factors shaping, 7
lack of technological innovation
in, 78
confidence building in, 37
index background, 3638
housing innovation, i
adoption and diffusion of, 518
case-specific studies on, 13
demonstrating diffusion of ,
2333
on economic growth, 17
focused survey data, 13
laggard, 7
public policy impacts on, 16
Housing Innovation, 8
Housing Market Index (HMI), 35
vs. BCI, 47t, 48f
Hurricane Joaquin, 73
HVAC. See Heating, Ventilation,
and Air-Conditioning (HVAC)
hydrological disaster, 70, 72

90Index

I
IAOs. See innovation adopting
organizations
ICFs. See Insulating Concrete
Form Systems
IFR. See Interim Final Rule
IGO. See innovation generating
organization
independent variables, 1416
attributes of adopter, 25
attributes of innovation, 25, 26t
contextual/external conditions,
25
external factors, 28t
internal factors, 27t
Index of Consumer Sentiment, 36
index of homebuilding industry,
3638
innovation adopting organizations
(IAOs), 8
innovation generating organization
(IGO), 8
instrument design in BCI, 3840
Insulating Concrete Form Systems
(ICFs), 24
Interim Final Rule (IFR), 75
internal attributes, 15
internal factors, 27t
Introduction to Agent-Based
Modeling: Modeling Natural,
Social, and Engineered
Complex Systems with Netlogo
(Wilensky and Rand), 59
iterative proportional fitting (IPF),
41
K
Koebels diffusion model, 1213
L
labor (LB), 39
LASSO. See Least Absolute
Shrinkage and Selection
Operator

Leadership in Energy and

Environmental Design (LEED),
10
Least Absolute Shrinkage and
Selection Operator (LASSO),
1617
LEED. See Leadership in Energy
and Environmental Design
linear systems, 55
lot inventory (LI), 39
M
macro system, 63
market-to-market cost variation,
25
MCDA. See Multiple-Criteria
Decision Analysis
micro system, 63
models/modeling
Bass model, 12
empirical model, 2930
Koebels diffusion, 1213
LASSO model, 1617, 32
regression, 1617
vector autoregression (VAR)
model, 49
Multiple-Criteria Decision
Analysis (MCDA), 82
N
National Association of Home
Builders (NAHB), 24, 35
National Flood Insurance Program
(NFIP), 74
natural disasters, 7074
in Australia, 7172
climate-related events, 7071, 72
in Europe, 71
greenfield sites and, 72
Hurricane Joaquin, 73
static 3D modeling tools with
gaming technology and, 7374
tidal flooding and, 72
negative feedback, 63

Index 91

NetLogo, 59, 60, 62, 64

new business (NB), 39
new home builders, 38
vs. renovation contractors, 4344
NFIP. See National Flood
Insurance Program
nonlinear systems, 55
O
observability measures, 14
Optimum Value Engineering
(OVE), 24
orders and job backlog (OJ), 39
orological disaster, 70
OVE. See Optimum Value
Engineering
P
patches, 61
People, Policies, and Programs
Influencing Innovation in
Housing, 1, 2, 5, 6
PEX. See Polyethylene Plastic
Piping
PEX-AL-PEX, 24
Polyethylene Plastic Piping (PEX),
24
population size, 15
positive feedback, 62
product (PR), 39
attributes, 14
Programmable Thermostats, 24
R
regression modeling, 1617
relative advantage, 25
Renovation Barometer, 35
renovation contractors, 38
vs. new home builders, 4344
S
s-curve shape, 30
S&P Case Shiller Home Price
Indices, 36
sample size, 4041

seasonal adjustment, 4243

semi-permeable boundaries, 61
SIA. See Strategic Impact
Assessment
SIPS. See Structural Insulated
Panel Systems
social science modeling theory,
5458
Spray Foam Insulation, 24
Strategic Impact Assessment
(SIA), 82
strategic planning, 7678
Structural Insulated Panel Systems
(SIPS), 24
subcontractor network effects, 15
supply chain effects, measurement
of, 15
survey of U.S. home builders, 38
instrument, 3840
summary of, 44t
sustainability, i
synthetic populations, 65
T
10 energy-performance products,
24
Threat and Hazard Identification
and Risk Assessment (THIRA)
Guide, 75
thresholds, 63
tidal flooding, 72
time, 12
Time Series Regression with
ARIMA noise, Missing values
and Outliers; and Signal
Extraction in ARIMA Time
Series (TRAMO/SEATS), 42
trends tracking, 47
trialability measures, 25
turtles, 61
U
U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development (HUD), 24
U.S. home builders

92Index

adoption of PEX, 3132, 31t

data on, 2429
empirical model, 2930
high performance product
adoption, 2333
overview, 2324
survey instrument, 3840
10 energy-performance products,
24
U.S. National Weather Service
(NWS), 71
UN Office for Disaster Risk
Reduction (UNISDR), 69

United States disaster mitigation

policy, 7476
urban development compactness,
16
V
Vaastu Shastra, 56
vector autoregression (VAR)
model, 49
X
X-13ARIMA-SEATS (X-13A-S),
42