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INTRODUCTION
Corresponding Author: Dr. Karim Solaimani, GIS and RS Centre, University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran
856
k = k +1 k= k p k
k +1 = k A k1gk
1
G( )
2k
(3)
(1)
(2)
858
p 0 p min
pmax pmin
) 1
(4)
Sensitivity of analysis
BPNN structure optimization: The crucial tasks in BP
neural network modeling are to design a network with a
specific number of layers, each having a certain number
of neurons and to train the network optimally, so that it
can map the systems nonlinearity reasonably well.
Some researchers stressed that optimal neural network
design is problem-dependent and is usually determined
by a trial-and-error procedure, i.e. sensitivity of analysis
[24, 36, 45].
R=
t p
i= 1
n
2
i
=i 1=i 1
t p
2
i
1 N
(Ti Pi ) 2
N i =1
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
LM
0.38
0.48
0.54 0.76
10
12
14
16
CG
0.29
0.28
0.32 0.12
GDX 0.16
0.17
0.63 0.16
18
20
10
12
14
0.83 0.63
LM
3.9
2.5
4.09
3.7
4.04
3.9
2.93
0.48 0.35
CG
3.8
3.5
3.9
5.9
4.05 4.06
4.2
3.8
5.4
0.21 0.19
GDX 4.2
3.26
4.1
4.2
3.4
3.75 3.02
3.7
4.5
3.4
18
20
3.9
(a)
(a')
1.5
5
4
3
2
0.5
0
16
3.92 3.05
1
2
LM
0.75
0.78
0.91 0.71
CG
0.59
0.64
0.72 0.75
GDX 0.93
0.3
0.3
0.33
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.76 0.86
LM
3.64
3.2
2.73
0.76 0.77
CG
3.79
4.05
3.32
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.29
0.37 0.37
GDX 0.75
3.89
4.53
3.87
3.67
3.5
4.1
4.22
10
12
14
4.2
16
18
4.21 4.61
20
2.5
(b)
(b')
1.5
8
6
4
0.5
0
2
2
10
12
16
18
20
0.96 0.993
LM
1.22
0.64
7.04
0.22
0.2
0.2
CG
0.95
0.95
0.97 0.97
CG
1.67
1.68
1.38
GDX 0.87
0.76
0.92 0.91
0.8
GDX 2.61
3.3
2.07
2.2
2.01
0.83 0.89
14
0.9
16
0.92
18
20
LM
0.91
10
2.7
12
14
2.47 2.44
3.3
2.2
(c)
(c')
Fig. 3: Comparison of convergence speeds for the gradient descent (GDX), Conjugate Gradient (CG) and
Levenberg-Marqurdt (LM) algorithms, as measured by number of neurons during validation stage
for Model 1(a,a')-Model 2(b,b')-Model 3(c,c'); by(a,b,c) Correlation Coefficient (R), (a',b',c') root mean
squared error (ERMS)
861
Model
Architecture
Model1
2-4-1
Model2
5-12-1
Model3
10-20-1
RMSE
------------------------------------------------LM
CG
GDX
R
----------------------------------------------LM
CG
GDX
A
T
A
T
A
4.50
2.50
3.10
1.57
0.26
4.03
3.50
4.30
3.32
3.19
3.52
3.26
4.10
4.20
4.52
0.370
0.470
0.850
0.960
0.997
0.28
0.28
0.60
0.77
0.84
0.15
0.17
0.26
0.31
0.61
0.20
1.27
2.20
0.998
0.97
0.92
Where; RMSE is root means squared error and R is correlation coefficient. In Fig. 4a-c are indicated a comparison of predicated
rainfall-runoff by different models
Validation
observed
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Calibration
forecasted
observed
60
forecasted
50
40
30
20
10
0
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69
11
21
31 41
51
number of month
(a)
(a')
validation
observed
61 71
number of month
Calibration
validation
Series1
60
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Series2
50
Discharge
40
30
20
10
0
1 5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69
11 21 31 41 51
number of month
(b)
validation
observed
61 71 81
number of month
(b')
Calibration
forecasted
observed
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
forecasted
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69
11
21 31 41 51 61
number of month
number of month
(c)
(c')
Fig. 4: Comparison of predicated rainfall-runoff for the Calibrations and validations by different models; Model
1(a,a')-Model 2(b,b')-Model 3(c,c') (a) Model 1; (b) model 2; (c) Model 3
Q(t + 1)sha =
f {TSho ,TSha }
(8)
Q(t + 1)sha =
f {P M ,PShe , PSho ,PSha , PGo }
(9)
(10)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The author would like to thank the Centre of
Remo te Sensing of the Faculty of Natural Resources,
University of Agric. & Natural Res. of Sari for financial
and technical support.
CONCLUSION
The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models
show an appropriate capability to model hydrological
process. They are useful and powerful tools to handle
complex problems compared with the other traditional
models. In this study, the results show clearly that the
artificial neural networks are capable of model rainfallrunoff relationship in the arid and semiarid regions in
which the rainfall and runoff are very irregular, thus,
confirming the general enhancement achieved by using
neural networks in many other hydrological fields. In
this research, the influences of training algorithm
efficiencies and enabling/disabling of input dimension
on rainfall-runoff prediction capability of the artificial
neural networks was applied. A watershed system in
Ahvaz area in the south region of Iran was selected as
case study. The used data in ANN were monthly
hydrometric and climatic data with 17 years duration
from 1983 to 2000. For the mentioned model
14 year's data were used for its development but
for the validation/testing of the model 3 years data
was applied. Three model structures were developed
to
investigate
the
probability
impacts
of
enabling/disabling rainfall-runoff, rainfall, precipitation
and the average air temperature input data. Efficiency
of model 1 is enabled for average temperature data as
input dimension with using two stations, model 2 for
rain fall with using five stations and model 3 for
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