Hypothesis Tests: z-Test of a Population Proportion

Name: ____Ashley

Walker__________
1.

Historically (from about 2011 to 2005), about 58% of Americans believed

that Earths temperature was rising (global warming). A March 2010 Gallup
Poll sought to determine whether this proportion had changed. The poll
interviewed 1014 adult Americans, and 527 said they believed that global
warming was real. (Assume these 1014 adults represented a simple random
sample.) Conduct the hypothesis test with a significance level of 5% (=.05).
a. Name of the test: _z-test of a Population Proportion___
b. State the hypotheses using the correct symbols:
H0: p= 0.58 Ha: p 0.58
c. Check the conditions to apply the CLT to make inference:
1) Random Sample: Yes, the 1014 adults represented a
simple random sample.
2) Large Population:
10n must be less than the population size.
10(1014) = 10140; Its safe to assume that more than
10140 people in America have opinions about global
warming. The population is large enough.
3) Large Sample:
1014(0.58) = 588.12 10
1014(1-0.58) = 425.88 10
4) Independent: It is safe to assume that each adults
answer to the poll was independent of another adults
answer.
d. Calculate the test statistic (z-core):

.520-.58/(.0155) = -3.89

e. Calculate the p-value: .0001007 (Is this a two-tailed or a one-tailed

test? Two / One (CIRCLE ONE)

f.

Decision:

Reject

Fail-to-Reject H0 (CIRCLE ONE)

g. Make a Conclusion statement in terms of the original problem in proper

APA format:
We can conclude that there is strong evidence that the
proportion of those who believe in global warming has changed.
Z = -3.89, p < .05
h. If the decision is Reject H0, then it is appropriate to provide a
confidence interval with interpretation. If it is appropriate in this
situation, provide a 95% confidence interval for our estimate of the
proportion of American adults who believe that global warming is real.
.031
0.489 to 0.551
We are 95% confident that the proportion of adults who believe in
global warming is between 48.9% and 55.1%.
2. Standard anticoagulant therapy (to prevent blood clots) requires frequent
laboratory monitoring to prevent internal bleeding. A new procedure using
rivaroxaban (riva) was rested because it does not require frequent
monitoring. A randomized trial in 2012 was carried out, with standard
therapy being randomly assigned to half of 4832 patients and riva randomly
assigned to the other half. A bad result was recurrence of a blood clot in a
vein. Fifty of the 2416 patients on standard therapy had a bay outcome, and
44 of the 2416 patients on riva had a bad outcome. Test the hypothesis that
the proportion of bad results are different for riva and standard therapy
patients. Sue the significance level of 0.05.
a. Name of the test: __z-test of two Population Proportions__
b. State the hypotheses using the correct symbols:
H0: ptherapy = priva Ha: ptherapy priva
c. Check the conditions to apply the CLT to make inference:
1) Random Sample: Yes, a randomized trial was carried out.
2) Large Population:
10(4832) = 48320; Its safe to assume that the population
is large enough, because more than 48320 people require
anticoagulant therapy.

3) Large Sample:
2416(50/2416) = 50 10
2416(1-50/2416) = 2366 10
2416(44/2416) = 44 10
2416(1-44/2416) = 2372 10
4) Independent: Its safe to assume that each patients
treatment had no influence on another patients
treatment.
d. Calculate the test statistic (z-score):
Z = (Estimator Null Value)/SE
Z = 0.625
e. Calculate the p-value: 0.532 (Is this a two-tailed or a one-tailed test?
Two / One (CIRCLE ONE)
f.

Decision:

Reject

Fail-to-Reject H0 (CIRCLE ONE)

Because the p-value is more than the significance level (p = 0.532, =

0.05; p > ), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
g. Make a Conclusion statement in terms of the original problem in proper
APA format:
We find that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that using
rivaroxaban has a significantly different outcome in comparison to the
outcome of using standard therapy.
h. If the decision is Reject H0, then it is appropriate to provide a
confidence interval with interpretation. If it is appropriate in this
situation, provide a 95% confidence interval for our estimate of the
difference in proportion of bad results for these two therapies. If it is
not appropriate, state why.
Since we did not reject the null hypothesis here, there is no need to
provide a confidence interval.