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February 11, 2016

Voters back hospitals bid to expand Medicaid;


reject religious freedom case not to serve gays;
gun control moves voters in swing state Virginia
Summary of Key Findings
1. A strong majority of voters say the General Assembly should accept
Virginia hospitals offer to cover the states 10% share of Medicaid
expansion; but they worry whether Washington is good for its 90%.

2. Gun control remains a hot election issue. Virginians broadly support


initiatives, especially women, minorities, young voters and independents.

3. Voters say businesses should not be allowed to refuse service to gays and
lesbians based on the owners religious objections to homosexuality.

4. Virginians think the creation of the ethics advisory council and the $100
per year limit on money and gifts goes far enough on ethics reform.

5. Small majorities would create an independent redistricting commission


and bar the use of partisan voting data in drawing election boundaries.

6. Trump was right: Independents opposed the GOP presidential primary


affiliation statement and many were less likely to vote because of it.
For Further Information Contact:
Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director
Wason Center for Public Policy
e-mail qkidd@cnu.edu

McMurran Hall 264


Christopher Newport University
Newport News, VA 23606

Office (757) 594-8499


Mobile (757) 775-6932
http://cpp.cnu.edu

Analysis
The State of Things: Virginians are a little moody While Virginians are more
optimistic about the state of things in the Commonwealth (Q1) than in the country (Q2),
their optimism has dropped on both accounts over the last year. Forty percent of
registered voters say things in the Commonwealth are heading in the right direction,
while only 24% say things in the country are moving in the right direction. Optimism
about Virginia stood at 51% in January 2015. Approval of the job Governor Terry
McAuliffe is doing, currently at 45% (Q3), has ranged between 44% and 53% in Wason
Center polling since he took office in January 2014. Attorney General Mark Herrings
approval rated 33% versus 27% disapproval (Q4), slipping from 39-19 in September
2015. Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northams approval rated 26% versus 12%
disapproval (Q5), unchanged since September 2015.
Ethics Reform: Voters are satisfied. The General Assembly may have done enough
to satisfy Virginia voters on ethics reform. With 71% saying they are satisfied, voters
approve of the creation of an ethics advisory council and the imposed limit of $100 per
year on money and gifts that elected officials can accept from any one person.
Satisfaction is highest among liberals, whites, and female voters. African Americans are
the least satisfied with the reforms, though a majority (56%) do say they are satisfied.
While it took the General Assembly a couple of legislative sessions to get there, and it
may not completely satisfy good government advocates, the voting public does appear
satisfied with these ethics reforms, said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center
for Public Policy. Absent additional scandals, the General Assembly is unlikely to feel
strong voter pressure to enact further reforms in the near future.
Redistricting: The proposal to make it non-partisan splits on partisan lines.
A year filled with lawsuits over election district boundaries, the courts overturning the
General Assembly-drawn congressional maps, and a more vocal reform movement, does
appear to have increased public awareness and familiarity with redistricting (Q8). Just
over half (52%) of Virginia voters say they are familiar with redistricting, up from 47% in
January 2015. Younger voters (those 18-44), women, and ideological conservatives are
least familiar, while ideological moderates are most familiar.
However, support for two major redistricting reforms remains about where it was a year
ago. A slight majority (51%) support creating an independent redistricting commission
(Q9), down from 54% in January 2015. The question of taking redistricting away from
the General Assembly shows clear partisan differences. Support for an independent
commission wins a distinct majority among liberals (65%), Democrats (64%), and
moderates (57%), while opposition and support are almost evenly divided among
conservatives (40%-39%) and Republicans (40%-43%), with neither having a majority.
Support for prohibiting the use of partisan voting information in redistricting (Q10)
enjoys the support of 54% of voters, and appears a less polarizing issue, with Democrats
and Republicans supporting it at similar rates. Younger voters who are among the
least familiar with redistricting in general, are the most supportive of this proposal at
2

63%. Ideological conservatives and African Americans are the least supportive at 46%,
with black voters perhaps linking the use of partisan voting data to the preservation of
black majority districts.
Medicaid Expansion: A majority backs expansion but doubt about federal
money resonates. Support for the general notion of expanding the Medicaid program
(Q11) stands at 61%, driven by huge support among African Americans (92%),
ideological liberals (92%), and Democrats (87%). The question divides sharply along
partisan and ideological lines, with 58% of Republicans and 56% of conservatives
opposing expansion. There is also a sharp divide along gender lines, with women
supporting expansion by nearly 10% over men, 63% to 54%.
One of the primary arguments of opponents of expansion that the federal government
will not pay its entire share in the future resonates with voters (Q12), with 62% saying
they have the same worry. Concern is highest among ideological conservatives (78%)
and Republicans (82%), but also significantly higher than the average among younger
voters (70%). Additionally, while 63% of female voters support expansion, 64% of them
say they also worry about the federal government paying its share in the future.
Hospitals Medicaid Offer: Voters like the idea of letting hospitals pay the
states share. Virginia voters generally like the offer made by hospitals to cover the
states portion of the cost for expanding Medicaid (Q13), with support highest among
voters who are already supportive of expanding the program (African Americans,
liberals, and Democrats) and lowest among those least supportive of expanding the
program (conservatives and Republicans). Interestingly, younger voters and
independents are more supportive of expanding Medicaid under the hospitals offer
(68% support from each group) than they are of the general idea of expanding Medicaid.
Certificate of Public Need: Voters show regional preferences, but no
majority. The General Assembly is considering eliminating Virginias Certificate of
Public Need law, which regulates the number of certain medical facilities in a region
(Q14). Voters are evenly split, with 42% supporting eliminating the law and 42%
opposed. While there is a slight partisan element on this question, the more interesting
story is the regional variation, with Northern Virginia voters slightly more supportive of
eliminating the law (50%) and voters in Richmond and central Virginia significantly less
supportive (31%). Younger voters (18-44) are more supportive of eliminating the law.
Restoration of Felons Rights: Regardless of region or party, a majority of
voters supports restoration. The automatic restoration of voting rights for anyone
convicted of a non-violent felony crime who has completed their sentence is supported
by 69% of Virginia voters (Q15). Self-identified liberals and African Americans are the
strongest supporters (93% and 88%, respectively). There is a partisan element to views
on this issue, with Democrats and liberals most supportive and Republicans and
conservatives least supportive, but still a majority. There is also majority support in
every region, although Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads voters are less supportive
than Richmond and Central Virginia voters and Southside/southwest voters.
3

LGBT Rights: Voters oppose letting businesses refuse to serve same-sex


couples. Virginia voters solidly oppose a proposal to allow businesses to refuse services
to gay and lesbian couples based upon religious beliefs (Q16), with 57% saying they
oppose such a proposal. Opposition is widespread, but highest among ideological
liberals (86%) and Democrats (77%), followed by ideological moderates (62%) and
independents (65%). Only ideological conservatives and Republicans support the
measure, 60% and 56%, respectively.
The Virginia electorate has moved dramatically on same sex marriage since voters
banned it by approving the Virginia Marriage Amendment in 2006, said Kidd. Today,
a fairly decisive majority say businesses should not be able to discriminate against gay
and lesbian couples even if homosexuality violates their religious beliefs.
Gun Control: Voters are willing. In 2013, Terry McAuliffe won a close race for
governor while touting his F rating from the NRA. In 2015, Democrats made gun
control a central issue in some key state Senate races, to mixed results. Why are
Democrats seemingly more eager to talk about guns and gun control today than at any
time since the 1994 midterm elections? In part because the data suggests that the voting
public, especially the Democratic coalition, is amenable to gun control arguments.
By the slimmest margin, a majority of 51% of voters say they support Attorney General
Herrings decision not to recognize concealed carry permits from 25 states that do not
have the same standards as Virginia (Q17). While the issue clearly demonstrates a
partisan divide (Democrats and liberals strongly support it, while Republicans and
conservatives strongly oppose it), the vote-rich regions of Northern Virginia and
Hampton Roads support the decision (55% and 51%, respectively), as do ideological
moderates (53%), political independents (52%), and women (56%).
Voters are slightly more opposed to (49%) than supportive of (46%) a blanket
recognition of concealed carry permits from any state (Q18). Again, while the usual
partisan contours exist, opponents are aided by the views of ideological moderates (52%
oppose), voters in Northern Virginia (54% oppose), and women (50% oppose).
Among Virginia voters there is a small but significant majority who say it is more
important to control who can buy guns (55%) than it is to protect the rights of Virginians
to own guns (41%) (Q19). The intensity among Democrats (82%) and liberals (81%) for
controlling gun ownership is greater than the intensity among Republicans (66%) and
conservatives (62%) for protecting the rights of gun owners. African Americans are
strongly of the view that controlling who can own guns (84%) is more important than
protecting peoples rights to own guns. Women, political independents, and ideological
moderates are also more supportive of controlling ownership than protecting rights.
On four specific policy proposals related to guns and gun control two typically
advocated by gun control proponents and two typically advocated by gun rights
proponents voters lean toward gun control in all but one. On the question of making
private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks (Q20a), 88% are
supportive, and the support crosses all demographic, social, and political categories. On
the question of banning assault-style weapons (Q20b), 62% of voters are supportive, but
4

there is a sharp partisan and ideological divide. What drives opinion is the strong
support of women (75%), moderates (64%), and independents (66%).
On the question of allowing anyone who legally owns a gun to conceal carry without a
permit (Q20c), voters are strongly opposed (84%). Opposition is across party lines and
widespread. However, a small majority (52%) of voters are in favor of allowing faculty at
Virginia colleges and universities to conceal carry (Q20d), and support for this proposal
is propelled by stronger than average support from independents (59%), ideological
moderates (54%), and those under 45 (64%).
Virginia has emerged in the last decades as a battleground state, and if the 2013
gubernatorial race and the 2015 state legislative races are any indication, gun control
will be a central part of the debate going forward.
Hillary Clinton has certainly not been shy in talking about gun control on the
presidential campaign trail, said Kidd. These data suggest that Democrats who
campaign on gun control in Virginia will be dependent upon key elements of their
electorate showing up to vote: women, minorities, independents, and voters under 45.
These voters explain why Democrats are more eager to talk about gun control.
An Early Look at 2017. Four people have either announced they are running for
governor in 2017, or have been mentioned as possible candidates (Q6a-d). Former
Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who lost the gubernatorial election to Terry McAuliffe
in 2013, has the highest proportion of voters who know him well enough to express an
opinion, but those opinions are closely divided. With 31% favorable and 29%
unfavorable, Cuccinellis net favorability rating is +2 (31-29) not in unfavorable
territory, but very low. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie,
who nearly defeated incumbent Senator Mark Warner in 2014, has the next highest
share of opinion and the highest net favorability rating at +9 (22-13). The lowest
proportion of voters has an opinion of First District Congressman Rob Wittman, but his
net favorability is +7 (13-6). Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam, who is widely
regarded as the favorite for the Democrats nomination for governor in 2017, has a very
high share of voters who dont know enough about him to express an opinion (64%),
and a low net favorability rating of +1 (12-11).
Donald Trump Was Right! By a 2-1 margin, self-identified Republicans,
independents who lean Republican, and independents opposed the statement of party
affiliation that was until last week going to be a requirement for voting in the March 1
Republican primary (Q21). Independents were most opposed (74%), followed by voters
in the Richmond region (70%), and ideological moderates (67%). Republican voters
were also strongly opposed (59%). Supporters of Republican presidential candidate
Donald Trump filed suit in federal court in an unsuccessful attempt to have the
statement removed (before the Republican Party voluntarily removed it last week).
Trump argued that his supporters included independents, moderates, and some
Democrats, and that those groups would be unlikely to vote in the primary if they had to
sign the statement. Trump appears to have been right, with 41% of independents and
35% of moderates saying they were less likely to vote in the primary because of the
affiliation statement (Q22).
5

Field Dates: January 18-29


804 Registered Virginia Voters
Margin of Error = +/- 3.5%
Q1: Overall, would you say things in the COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA are heading more in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

All

39
15
43
3

38
16
41
5

35
16
45
4

56
10
31
4

40
17
38
5

36
16
45
3

38
15
44
4

38
16
42
4

42
18
36
4

37
15
44
4

55
11
28
6

44
16
37
4

25
14
59
2

29
16
53
3

38
17
41
4

55
14
26
5

Right
Mixed (vol)
Wrong
Dk/Ref (vol)

40
15
41
4

Trends:

Sept. 2015

Jan. 2015

Jan. 2014

Jan. 2013

Feb. 2012

Right
Mixed (vol)
Wrong
Dk/ref (vol)

46
15
35
4

51
14
32
3

50
11
34
5

48
17
30
5

46
18
30
6

Q2: And how about the countryoverall, would you say things in the UNITED STATES are heading more in
the right direction or the wrong direction?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Right
Mixed (vol)
Wrong
Dk/Ref (vol)

24
9
66
1

22
8
70
1

24
10
66
1

18
8
73
1

49
10
40
1

25
9
65
1

24
7
68
1

22
8
70

21
10
68
1

22
10
67
1

23
8
68
1

54
9
35
2

23
11
66

7
4
88
1

4
5
91

21
11
67
1

50
12
36
2

Trends:

Sept. 2015

Jan. 2015

Jan. 2014

Jan. 2013

Feb. 2012

Right
Mixed (vol)
Wrong
Dk/ref (vol)

28
9
61
2

34
11
54
2

30
10
57
2

35
11
52
1

23
12
62
3

Q3: [READ] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor?
[IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (DONT KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE ONCE
WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor? IF
STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DONT KNOW]

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Approve
Disapprove
Dk/Ref (vol)

45
32
24

44
36
20

45
31
25

42
36
22

61
13
26

41
34
26

49
36
15

44
33
23

45
32
23

38
30
32

47
35
19

75
9
16

50
26
24

25
58
17

28
50
22

43
31
26

70
12
18

Trends:

Sept. 2015

Jan. 2015

Sept. 2014

Apr. 2014

Approve
Disapprove
Dk/ref (vol)

53
23
25

52
25
24

47
27
26

44
32
24

Q4: [READ] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Herring is handling his job as Attorney General of
Virginia? [IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (DONT KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE
ONCE WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Herring is handling his job as Attorney
General? IF STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DONT KNOW]

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Approve
Disapprove
Dk/Ref (vol)

33
27
40

30
32
37

36
23
41

33
29
38

38
22
40

30
27
43

31
33
37

36
24
40

35
28
37

31
24
46

34
29
37

52
13
35

34
25
40

23
41
36

25
36
39

32
23
44

47
17
36

Trends:

Sept. 2015

Approve
Disapprove
Dk/ref (vol)

39
19
42

Q5: [READ] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ralph Northam is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor
of Virginia? [IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (DONT KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.)
PROBE ONCE WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Ralph Northam is handling his job as
Lieutenant Governor? IF STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DONT KNOW]

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Approve
Disapprove
Dk/Ref (vol)

26
12
63

28
10
62

23
14
63

25
12
63

29
12
59

19
10
71

32
10
58

28
16
56

26
12
62

27
10
63

25
13
62

39
5
57

25
12
64

20
18
62

22
16
62

24
13
63

32
5
63

Trends:

Sept. 2015

Approve
Disapprove
Dk/ref (vol)

26
12
62

Q6: Several people have either announced they are running or are considering running for Governor of Virginia in
2017. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, or if you dont know
enough about them to have an opinion. Ok, here is the first one
[NAMES ROTATED]
a. Ed Gillespie
Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

22
13
55
11

Male

All
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
Dk/Ref (vol)

26
15
49
10

18
12
59
11

23
14
54
9

7
17
63
12

24
13
52
10

24
17
45
13

23
8
63
6

18
14
55
12

23
9
55
13

22
15
54
10

11
22
58
9

21
15
53
11

32
8
53
7

35
7
50
8

14
17
59
10

10
21
57
13

b. Ralph Northam
Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

12
11
64
13

Male

All
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
Dk/Ref (vol)

13
10
65
12

11
12
65
13

13
10
66
12

11
13
65
11

6
7
76
12

15
17
50
18

23
13
56
8

10
9
69
13

13
11
60
16

12
11
66
11

25
7
57
11

10
12
66
13

9
12
69
10

9
12
69
10

12
8
65
14

17
10
59
14

c. Ken Cuccinelli
Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

36
32
25
7

30
27
37
6

35
31
29
5

15
27
51
7

34
34
26
6

31
33
26
10

31
28
38
4

34
25
34
7

31
21
38
10

34
32
29
5

13
52
30
5

32
33
29
6

48
15
33
5

50
17
28
5

25
35
33
7

15
45
33
7

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

31
29
33
7

Male

All
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
Dk/Ref (vol)

11
7
69
13

13
5
69
13

12
6
70
12

13
6
66
15

11
6
72
11

15
7
61
17

19
7
65
10

8
4
74
15

15
7
64
14

11
5
70
13

9
10
69
13

15
5
67
14

11
5
73
11

16
5
69
10

11
4
71
14

9
7
68
16

d. Rob Wittman
All
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
Dk/Ref (vol)

13
6
68
13

Q7: In the past several years there has been a lot of controversy about the ethics of public officials in Virginia.
Last year the General Assembly passed several reforms, including creating an ethics advisory council and
imposing a limit of $100 per year on money and gifts that can be taken from any one person. Are you generally
[RANDOMIZE: satisfied or dissatisfied] that these reforms go far enough?
Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

71
4
24
2

Male

All
Satisfied
Not sure (vol)
Dissatisfied
Dk/Ref (vol)

68
4
26
2

75
5
18
2

76
4
19
1

56
5
38
1

72
3
24
1

72
5
22
2

72
3
24
1

72
6
19
3

70
3
26
1

73
5
20
2

76
3
19
2

74
4
21
2

70
6
24

74
5
20
1

68
3
29

75
4
19
2

Q8: Legislative election district boundaries for the General Assembly and Congress are redrawn every ten years
after the census, a process known as REDISTRICTING. How familiar are you with the redistricting process in
Virginia, would you say generally familiar or generally unfamiliar?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Familiar
Not sure (vol)
Unfamiliar
Dk/Ref (vol)

52
1
47

56
1
43

47
1
52

53
1
46

55

51
1
48

54

52
1
47

50
1
49

46

53
1
45

50

59
1
39

46
1
53

51
1
48

51
1
48

55
1
44

Trends:

Jan. 2015

Familiar
Not sure (vol)
Unfamiliar
Dk/ref (vol)

47
2
51
1

45

45

53
1

49
1

Q9: Virginias constitution gives the General Assembly the sole power to do redistricting. There is a proposal
before the General Assembly to change the Virginia constitution by taking authority over redistricting away from
the General Assembly and establishing an independent redistricting commission to draw new district boundaries.
Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] this proposal?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

51
13
32
4

52
10
32
6

50
15
32
3

52
12
32
4

49
12
35
4

49
14
31
6

49
15
31
5

51
10
33
6

52
12
33
3

54
16
26
5

50
12
34
4

65
13
19
4

57
7
31
5

39
17
40
4

43
12
40
5

53
14
30
4

64
13
20
3

Trends:

Jan. 2015

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/ref (vol)

54
13
31
2

Q10: There is another proposal before the General Assembly to prohibit the use of partisan voting information
that is information on the number of votes cast for Democrats and Republicans in a given area when drawing
new district boundaries. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] this proposal?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

54
8
35
3

57
7
35
1

50
9
37
4

54
7
36
3

46
12
38
4

57
7
34
2

48
11
35
6

59
7
31
2

49
8
40
3

63
7
28
2

50
9
38
3

57
8
33
2

59
6
33
2

46
8
42
4

53
6
38
3

57
7
33
3

52
12
33
3

Trends:

Jan. 2015

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/ref (vol)

55
9
35
1

Q11: Medicaid is a health care program for low income families and individuals that is funded with both federal
and state money. Currently, the General Assembly is faced with a decision about whether to expand the
Medicaid program to cover an additional 400,000 mostly working poor Virginians who are uninsured. Do you
[RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] Medicaid expansion?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

61
4
34
1

54
4
41
2

63
5
31
1

55
5
39
1

92
1
7

57
4
38
1

56
1
40
2

58
7
34
2

62
4
34
1

60
2
35
3

58
5
36
1

92

59
5
34
2

40
4
56

37
4
58
1

65
6
26
3

87
2
10

7
1

Q12: If Virginia expanded its Medicaid program, the state would eventually pay up to 10% of the cost of the
expansion, with the federal government paying the remaining 90%. However, some people worry that in the
future the federal government will not pay its entire part, and that the state will be left to cover that cost too.
Would you be worried or not worried that the federal government would continue to pay its entire share to the
state?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Worried
No view (vol)
Not worried
Dk/Ref (vol)

62
2
34
1

60
3
36
1

64
2
33
1

64
2
33
1

51
4
44
1

61
1
38

66
3
28
3

65
3
30
2

59
3
37
1

70
1
29

60
3
36
1

32
2
63
2

63
2
35

78
3
18
1

82
2
15
1

63
1
35
1

36
3
60
1

10

Q13: To encourage Virginia to expand Medicaid, hospitals have offered to make contributions so that hospitals not taxpayers - cover the states 10% cost. Should the General Assembly accept the hospitals offer and expand
Medicaid under these terms?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Yes
No view (vol)
No
Dk/Ref (vol)

62
6
29
3

58
5
33
4

62
7
28
4

58
7
32
3

82
1
17

56
7
36
2

59
6
30
5

65
5
25
5

65
5
25
5

68
5
23
4

57
7
33
4

77
7
14
2

63
4
30
2

45
7
43
5

46
7
44
4

68
5
23
4

77
5
16
2

Q14: There is a proposal before the General Assembly to eliminate the law that regulates how many hospitals
and other specialized medical facilities there can be in any given area. Opponents of the law say this change
would drive down costs and make more services available by injecting free-market competition into health care.
Supporters of the law say eliminating it would weaken hospitals by allowing the other facilities to cherry pick
the most profitable types of care, but leaving hospitals to cover other money losing types of care. Do you
[RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] the proposal to eliminate this law?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

42
12
42
5

44
12
39
5

40
12
42
7

41
12
41
6

37
11
51
1

50
10
36
4

31
17
47
5

45
9
39
8

39
13
42
7

47
11
35
7

40
13
42
6

30
12
52
6

45
13
36
7

43
9
43
5

46
11
38
5

41
8
45
6

37
15
43
6

Q15: Currently under Virginia law, anyone who has been convicted of a felony crime does not automatically
have their right to vote restored after they have completed their sentence, but instead must apply to have their
right to vote restored by the Governor. There is a proposal before the General Assembly to make the restoration
of voting rights automatic for anyone convicted of a non-violent felony crime who has completed their sentence.
Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] this proposal?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

69
1
29
1

64
1
34
1

70
2
28

64
1
34
1

88

64
1
35

69
2
27
1

63
3
34

71
1
27
1

69
1
28
1

66
2
31
1

93
1
6

70
1
28
1

50
2
48

51
2
47

73
1
26

87
1
12

12

11

Q16: As you know, the Supreme Court ruled same-sex marriage to be legal in all fifty states. There is a proposal
before the General Assembly that would allow businesses to refuse service to gays and lesbians if the business
says homosexuality violates the owners religious beliefs. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] this
proposal?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

36
5
57
2

39
5
53
2

36
4
59
1

41
4
54
1

22
7
70
1

40
3
54
3

38
5
56
2

32
6
61
1

39
4
55
2

35
3
60
2

39
5
55
1

12
2
86

33
4
62
2

60
6
33
2

56
4
38
3

29
5
65

18
5
77

Q17: Recently Virginias Attorney General announced that Virginia would stop recognizing concealed carry gun
permits from 25 states that dont have the same standards for a concealed gun permit as Virginia. Supporters say
this ensures that anyone with a concealed carry gun permit in Virginia meets Virginias standards. Opponents
say it unfairly penalizes people who have a legal concealed carry gun permit from another states. Do you
[RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] this decision?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

51
5
43
1

42
4
53
1

56
7
36
1

48
5
47
1

61
7
32

55
4
41

40
5
53
2

51
6
41
2

48
6
44
2

49
3
47
1

49
6
43
2

69
8
23
1

53
5
41
1

33
3
64
1

37
2
61

52
7
40
1

67
8
24
1

Q18: There is a proposal before the General Assembly that would require Virginia to recognize concealed carry
gun permits from all states that issue them, regardless of the standards the states require a person to meet in order
to get a permit. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] this decision?

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

46
4
49
1

51
3
45
1

43
5
50
2

48
4
46
2

38
5
56
1

43
3
54

49
4
45
1

46
5
47
2

48
4
44
3

54
2
44
1

44
5
49
2

26
4
69
2

43
4
52
1

63
3
33
2

59
3
37
1

53
3
41
3

27
6
66
1

12

Q19: Generally speaking, what do you think is more important [RANDOMIZE: to protect the rights of
Virginians to own guns OR to control who can buy guns]?
Do you feel strongly about that view, or is that just a general view?
Feel strongly protect rights
General view protect rights
General view control ownership
Feel strongly control ownership
Dk/ref (vol)

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

Protect
(combined)
Control
(combined)
Dk/Ref (vol)

29
12
19
36
4

41

49

36

47

12

44

40

40

44

47

41

17

38

62

66

36

15

55

45

61

48

84

53

54

55

51

47

55

81

55

36

31

56

82

Q20: Im going to read several proposals that people have made about gun policy, and Id like you to tell me if
you favor or oppose each one.
Ok, here is the first one..
a. Making private gun sales and sales at guns shows subject to background checks.
Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

88
1
10
1

Male

All
Favor
No opinion
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

80
3
16
1

93
1
6

87
2
11

93
2
5

84
1
13
2

84
1
13
1

94
1
5

87
2
11

87

87
2
10

95

91
2
7

78
2
19
1

81
2
16
1

95

96
1
3

13

b. A ban on assault-style weapons


Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

62
4
33
1

Male

All
Favor
No opinion
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

48
3
47
2

75
4
21

60
3
36
1

81
1
18

61
4
34
1

60
4
33
2

62
3
34
1

64
4
32
1

49
4
45
2

67
3
29
1

82
1
15
2

64
4
30
1

47
3
49
1

45
4
50
1

66
5
29

86
2
12

13

c. Allow anyone who legally owns a gun to conceal carry without a permit
Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

14
1
84
1

Male

All
Favor
No opinion
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

21
1
77
1

9
1
89
1

16
1
83

10
2
88

14
1
84
1

16
1
81
1

12

17
2
81

19
1
81

14
1
84
1

5
1
91
3

13
2
85

23

21
1
77

16

5
1
93
1

87
2

76

84

d. Allow full-time faculty at Virginia colleges and universities to carry concealed handguns on campus
Female

White

Black

Nova

Rich

HR

S/west

18-44

45 +

Lib

Mod

Cons

Rep

Ind

Dem

52
5
41
1

Male

All
Favor
No opinion
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

59
4
35
2

50
6
43
1

59
5
35
1

28
5
66
1

52
3
43
2

50
6
42
2

59
5
34
2

56
6
38

64
4
31
1

51
5
42
2

24
3
69
3

54
4
41
1

70
5
24
1

74
5
20
1

59
2
37
2

27
3
69
1

PARTYID: In politics today, do you generally consider yourself to be a Republican, an Independent who leans
Republican, an Independent that doesnt lean Republican or Democratic, an Independent who leans Democratic, or a
Democrat?
Republican
Independent lean Republican
Independent
Independent lean Democrat
Democrat
No preference (vol)
Other party (vol)
Dk/ref (vol)

21
20
16
14
24
3
1
2

[ASK IF PARTYID = Republican, Independent lean Republican, or Independent]


Q21: Anyone who wants to vote in the upcoming Republican presidential primary in Virginia on March 1 must
sign an affiliation statement before they are given a ballot that reads: My signature below indicates that I am a
Republican. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose] having this affiliation statement?

26
8
64
3

24
8
67
2

34
8
56
2

35
6
59

13
8
74
5

Dem

30
7
60
3

Ind

25
7
66
2

Rep

31
7
59
3

Cons

45 +

19
5
70
5

Mod

18-44

31
10
57
2

Lib

S/west

27
6
65
1

HR

White

24
6
66
3

Rich

Female

29
9
60
2

Nova

Male

27
7
63
3

Black

All
Support
No view (vol)
Oppose
Dk/Ref (vol)

14

Q22: Does this affiliation statement make you [RANDOMIZE: more or less] likely to vote in the March 1
Republican presidential primary?

21
47
28
4

19
45
35
1

26
52
20
0

25
50
24
1

11
44
41
4

Dem

18
48
31
3

Ind

22
41
34
3

Rep

19
50
27
4

Cons

45 +

15
50
28
7

Mod

18-44

22
50
24
4

Lib

S/west

20
48
30
2

HR

White

19
50
28
3

Rich

Female

21
45
30
4

Nova

Male

20
30
47
4

Black

All
More
Not sure (vol)
Less
Dk/Ref (vol)
Demographics
EDUC:

High school or less


Some college
Vocational or technical training
College graduate
Graduate study or more

12
22
4
39
22

HISPANIC:
Yes
No
Dk/ref (vol)

3
96
1

RACE:
White
Black or African American
Other

72
19
9

RELIG:
Protestant
Christian (non-specific) (vol)
Catholic
Jewish
Other
None (vol)
Dk/ref (vol)

31
22
12
2
17
13
3

IDEOL:
Strong liberal
Liberal
Moderate, leaning liberal
Moderate, leaning conservative
Conservative
Strong Conservative
Dk/ref (vol)

5
13
15
25
23
10
10

15

AGE:
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55 & older

9
11
14
23
43

TEA PARTY:
Support
Oppose
No view
Dk/ref (vol)

20
42
35
3

INCOME:
Under $25,000
$25-$49,999
$50-$74,999
$75-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
Over $150,000
Dk/ref (vol)

5
14
16
15
16
19
15

REGION:
Northern Virginia
Richmond/Central
Hampton Roads
South/Southwest

33
21
24
22

SEX:
Male
Female

49
51

How the survey was conducted:


The results of this poll are based on 804 interviews of registered Virginia voters, including 430 on landline and 374
on cell phone, conducted January 18-29, 2016. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error
for the whole survey is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence. All error margins have been adjusted to account for
the surveys design effect, which is 1.0 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the surveys
deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and
weighting procedures. Sub samples will have higher margins of error. In addition to sampling error, the other
potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR
RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 12%. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live
calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at
Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex,
age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of registered voters
in Virginia. The survey was designed by Dr. Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher
Newport University.

16